DFS Alerts

The Offense that Dominates Projections Against Pitcher with a 0.0 K-BB%

Facing the Rockies, but not at Coors, the Atlanta Braves still top a 12 game board at 5.87 implied runs on Tuesday night. The only flaw in Atlanta’s armor is a 25.1 K% vs RHP, but Jose Urena has both an 11.6% strikeout and walk rate. More than half a run lower, but still reaching five runs are the Brewers (Mitch Keller) and Yankees (Mike Mayers). Only three more offenses exceed four and a half runs or even 4.3 runs on a very pitching heavy board. Each of the first two, four of the top six, and even six of the top 12 projected bats are Braves tonight. While Urena has a 95 point split this season (LHBs .400 wOBA) and the projected Atlanta lineup only includes three from that side, Statcast narrows the gap to less than 20 points (LHBs .367 xwOBA, .RHBs .349 xwOBA). Urena’s only positive attribute is a 50.2 GB%, which makes this even more of a stacking situation with the main obstacle being price, considering the price of pitching tonight. Ronald Acuna Jr. (114 wRC+, .124 ISO vs RHP this season) and Matt Olson (129 wRC+, .269 ISO) are tonight’s top projected bats, not too far ahead of Austin Riley (122 wRC+, .225 ISO) and Dansby Swanson (113 wRC+, .159 ISO) with William Contreras (122 wRC+, .264 ISO) and Michael Harris (152 wRC+, .260 ISO) just outside the top 10.

The Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angeles Angels also feature a pair of top 10 projected bats. It’s the obvious in L.A.. Twelve of Jameson Taillon’s 24 walks this season came in a four start stretch that started towards the end of July, but he hasn’t walked a batter in three starts since. It’s mentioned because a 4.2 BB% is the key to his season with a marginal 20.2 K% and very average contact profile. His 3.89 ERA is within a quarter run of all estimators, a perfectly fourth starter type. It’s actually probably a small victory that Mike Trout (165 wRC+, .357 ISO) and Shohei Ohtani (160 wRC+, .292 ISO) at least project among the latter half of the top 10. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .298 and .338 wOBA and xwOBA against Taillon this year.

So much for “at least Mitch Keller is generating ground balls”. He’s struck out just 13 of his last 108 batters with a 42.9 GB%. His 4.30 ERA over this five spot span is a bit misleading because six of the 17 runs he’s allowed have been unearned. His season ground ball rate has dropped to 49.5% with just a 10.2 K-BB%. His 4.50 matches his 4.50 DRA, but is slightly above other estimators, which drop as far as a 3.99 FIP with just 11 of 29 barrels exiting the park. Batters from either side are between a .314 and .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him, while the Pittsburgh pen has been heavily worked recently too. Christian Yelich (122 wRC+, .154 ISO) and Willy Adames (115 wRC+, .249 ISO) are top projecting bats tonight.

Top Projections Values Are Mostly SP2 Types

With nine pitchers costing more than $9K on each site (all covered in today’s PlateIQ Live Blog), you’re probably not going below that price tag on FanDuel tonight, even though the three best projecting values cost less than $8.5K there tonight. Lucas Giolito might be an option against the Royals (89 wRC+, 22.1 K%, 8.2 HR/FB vs RHP), except for some extremely hitter friendly weather expectations, along with his own drawbacks. Striking out just three of 24 Orioles, Lucas Giolito produced his first post-break Quality Start last time out. It’s no longer a home run and barrel problem, as he’s allowed just four of each over his last 11 starts, but his BABIP is now up to .357. It’s not all bad luck, as his 25.3 K% is his lowest since 2018. Estimators range from a 3.67 xFIP to a 4.15 DRA. Keep an eye on Weather Edge though. If conditions temper, Gioilto still may be an option.

Projecting as a top two value for less than $6K on either site, Mike Mayers is more an SP2 type on DraftKings and even that may be a stretch against the mighty (112 wRC+, 22.2 K%, 14.3 HR/FB vs RHP), but slumping (89 wRC+, 6.3 HR/FB, but still just a 17.3 K% over the last week) Yankees in a hitter friendly environment. We’re even expecting a hitter friendly umpire tonight. Mayers struck out five of 19 Rays in his first start, throwing fewer pitches (78) than he did in his previous relief outing. It’s not that he’s shown anything exceptional out of the bullpen (13.7 K-BB%, 12.0% Barrels/BBE), but the Angels just need arms at this point. Eight of his 12 barrels have left the yard, but his 4.46 ERA is within half a run of all estimators. The only appeal Mayers has is his price tag with a league average K-BB%.

Erick Fedde struck out six of 19 Mariners (14.8 SwStr%) in his first major league start in a month, but has just a 6.2 K-BB% on the season, which places his 4.88 ERA within one-fifth of a run of all estimators. We’re usually talking about Fedde to encourage players to stack against him, but tonight, he projects as the third best value on either site for less than $7K against the A’s (81 wRC+, 23.6 K% vs RHP, 63 wRC+, 23.3 K%, 6.4 HR/FB last seven days).

One more place to look for arms is in Detroit. George Kirby isn’t that cheap ($9.2K on FanDuel) and has been working on a lower pitch count recently, but it hasn’t seemed to hurt his production. Despite exceeding 85 pitches in just one of his last five starts, he has struck out 36 batters (30.3%) over that span. The caveat is that he’s done this with just a 9.4 SwStr%. The 24.9 K% on the season isn’t the story. It’s the 3.3 BB% that occasionally lets him sneak into games, despite the low pitch counts. The contact profile was a bit of an early concern. While he’s still at 9.0% Barrels/BBE on the season, he’s allowed just six (4.9%) over his last eight starts. His 3.32 ERA fits snuggly between estimators ranging from just a 3.19 FIP to a 3.39 DRA. Four a guy who throws his four-seam fastball 46.8% of the time (-1.8 RV/100, 27.8 Whiff%, wOBA and xwOBA below .260), he’s certainly facing the right team (Tigers MLB worst -0.63 wFB/C). This is probably one of the few matchups in baseball, if not the only one, we’re willing to consider a fairly high price tag with such a pitch limit, but the Tigers have a 72 wRC+, 25.1 K% and 7.4 HR/FB vs RHP.

On the other side of this matchup, Matt Manning costs less than $7K on DK. While he hasn’t exactly faced the top offenses in the league, Matt Manning has still struck out 26 of his last 101 batters with a 13.7 SwStr%. That only brings him up to a 20.3 K% over seven starts, but with a 5.9 BB% and excellent contact profile (86.7 mph EV, 6.2% Barrels/BBE, 29.2% 95+ mph EV). While all estimators are well above his 2.37 ERA (84.7 LOB%, 6.1 HR/FB), contact inclusive ones (3.37 xERA) are closer than contact neutral ones (4.12 SIERA). The Mariners aren’t an easy matchup at all (103 wRC+, 22.7 K% vs RHP), but there’s some upside there and Manning could work in an SP2 spot for that price.

At Least Seven Innings in 14 of Last 22 Starts

It’s a uniform 12 game slate across both sites tonight with ALL the high end pitching. In addition to the six $10K pitchers (two on DraftKings), another three exceed $9K on each site. That’s 37.5% of the board, starting with Aaron Nola as the most expensive arm on the board in Arizona. He struck out a season high 11 Reds in a shutout without a walk last time out and is up to a 25.1 K-BB% on the season without allowing a barrel (7.1%) in four starts. Nola has pitched at least seven innings in 14 of his last 22 starts, while his 3.08 ERA is still above estimators ranging from a 2.60 xERA to a 2.88 xFIP, mostly because the defense stinks (-24 Runs Prevented). The curveball (26.6%, -1.5 RV/100, 38.7 Whiff%) should have some success against Arizona (-0.44 wCB/C), who also struggle with RHP (93 wRC+, 21.4 K%), though this lineup has had some turnover and some of the younger bats are interesting. The top of the board is jammed with three arms essentially tied (within a point) of the top projection. Right behind them is Nola with the fourth best projection on the board. However, Nola merely projects as the 10th best value on the board. If there’s a chance you’re going to get 30% strikeout upside and potentially seven to eight innings in a good spot and this pitcher is going to be under-owned, Nola may be your guy tonight. For much more on every pitcher costing more than $9K on both sites, including the three arms projecting ahead of Nola tonight, check out Tuesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

The Stack Projected to Smash the DK Slate at a Nearly 20% Rate

With a two game difference between slates and the FanDuel one carrying just six games, which omits the top team run total of the night (St Louis), we’re going to see some diversity in the stacking projections for tonight (although, remember that they are fluid and updated throughout the day). The Cardinals do project to be the most popular DraftKings offense tonight, though not too far ahead of the pair of stacks which are nearly tied for the top ownership projection on FanDuel (Phillies & Twins). We also find the Cardinals projected to smash the slate most often, nearly 20% of the time on DraftKings, a bit ahead of the Brewers, who project to smash the FanDuel slate most frequently. The only problem there is that we still don’t really know who they’ll be facing other than it being a bullpen game for the Pirates. The Brewers also project to be the highest value stack on FanDuel, while tying for the top honor on DraftKings with the Cardinals, who have a mix of cheap and expensive bats. For more on the top rated stacks tonight, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Lineup update: Michael Grove will start for the Dodgers on Monday.

Lineup update: Michael Grove will start for the Dodgers on Monday.

Tony Gonsolin scratched Monday

Tony Gonsolin scratched Monday

Projections Love the Value in Lineup Facing a Bullpen Game

There’s a great chance that players are paying somewhere close to $11K for their pitcher tonight, especially on FanDuel, so which lineups are you going to find those salary saving bats in? One of the top choices on both sites is Minnesota. Brayan Bello has shown some upside (mostly in the minors), but also some control issues. There are some massive disparities among his actual stats and expected ones with batters from either side of the plate above a .400 wOBA, but below a .300 xwOBA against him so far. The Twins have a 4.39 implied run total that’s upper half of the board today and several affordable bats among the projected lineup. Projecting as the top value on either site for $2.2K or less, Nick Gordon (112 wRC+, .166 ISO vs RHP this season) has a 125 wRC+ over the last month that’s second among projected Twins tonight. Jake Cave (101 wRC+, .243 ISO) projects as a top 10 value on either site at minimum cost. Max Kepler (104 wRC+, .137 ISO) projects as the third best FanDuel value for $2.5K.

FanDuel projections also suggest the Milwaukee lineup will be loaded with value against the Pittsburgh bullpen. We still aren’t sure who the pitchers will be, but projections are assuming right-handed with Rowdy Tellez and Christian Yelich both projecting as top of the board bats and values within $200 of $3K, while Omar Narvaez and Luis Urias cost $2.5K or less.

DraftKings projections suggest a ton of value in Cincinnati tonight…on both sides, in a game only available on that site. The Reds are desperate enough to have pulled Chase Anderson out of AAA from another organization to make his first major league start (and appearance) of the year. Lars Nootbaar (154 wRC+, .261 ISO) doubles as a top projected bat and value for exactly $3K. Corey Dickerson (110 wRC+, .146 ISO) projects as an even better value for $2.2K. Yadier Molina (33 wRC+), well, he costs the minimum and may have a lot of traffic on the bases for him.

On the other side, Miles Mikolas has failed to produce a Quality Start just three times in over his last 15 efforts, recording seventh inning outs in 10 of them. His strikeout rate down to 18.5%, Mikolas utilizes a strong contact profile (6.4% Barrels/BBE) and defense (19 Runs Prevented) to get outs, while an elite 4.4 BB% helps him keep the pitch count down and work deep into most starts. While his 3.35 ERA is below more than one-third of a run below all estimators (.252 BAIBP vs .282 team defense allowed), he doesn’t have a single one reaching four. Batters from either side of the plate are below a .300 wOBA against him, though RHBs have a .322 xwOBA. This is more about cheap bats in a great park than the matchup. Jake Fraley (139 wRC+, .260 ISO) costs just $2.8K, while TJ Friedl (82 wRC+) and Aristides Aquino (44 wRC+) cost no more than $2.1K.

Pair of LHBs Projecting Strongly Against a LHP

The Cardinals top the board at 5.74 implied runs on Monday night, but their game in Cincinnati is only available on the DraftKings slate. Topping the FanDuel slate are the Blue Jays with a team run total of 5.54 with the Brewers (5.09) the only other offense above five runs. Two more offenses, available on both sites, also exceed four and a half runs (Phillies & Yankees). Two of the top three projecting bats on the DraftKings board are Cardinals. The Reds pulled Chase Anderson from the Tampa Bay farm system, where he had been pitching in single inning relief stints, facing no more than seven batters, since joining the organization from Detroit in July, where he had been starting more often than relieving, but to just the tune of an 11.5 K-BB%, which is only slightly worse that his career 12.2 K-BB% at the major league level. Don’t expect much and don’t expect too much of it either. Cincinnati is the most hitter friendly environment on the board tonight, though the Cincinnati pen has estimators below three and a half over the last 30 days. Paul Goldschmidt (173 wRC+, .257 ISO vs RHP this season) is the top projected DraftKings bat tonight. Lars Nootbaar (154 wRC+, .261 ISO) projects third best. Ironically, Nolan Arenado (160 wRC+, .231 ISO) projects as only the fifth best bat in his own lineup.

The Phillies are the only offense to project more than a pair of top 10 bats on both sites tonight. With 24 earned runs over his last 28.2 innings, regression has firmly smashed Madison Bumgarner in the face, although his 4.53 ERA is still below estimators ranging from a 4.65 to a 5.66 DRA. He’s struck out just 16.6% of batters this season with a 7.8 SwStr% and 43.2 Z-O-Swing%, while allowing 9.2% Barrels/BBE. Though not all earned, Bumgarner has allowed at least five runs in six of his last seven starts, but the D’Backs have still allowed him to record sixth inning outs in six straight. The Phillies pound LHP and are top third of the league against fastballs (0.34 wFB/C) and cutters (0.58 wFC/C), two pitches that Bumgarner throws a combined 70% of the time, despite both being below average this year (combined total 21 RV – negative is better). While RHBs have a wOBA and xwOBA a point or two above .360 against him this year, LHBs have hit him well enough too (.312 wOBA, .322 xwOBA). Bryce Harper (149 wRC+, .215 ISO) and Kyle Schwarber (97 wRC+, .212 ISO) are the top two projecting Phillies tonight with Rhys Hoskins (178 wRC+, .295 ISO) also among the top 10.

The Blue Jays also feature a pair of top projected bats against Javier Assad, making his second major league start tonight. The recently turned 25 year-old has not seen a top prospects list on Fangraphs since 2018. Reaching AAA for the first time this season, he registered a 20.1 K-BB% through 36.2 innings, due to elite control (4.7 BB%), but walked four of 20 Cardinals with only three strikeouts in his debut. His AA walk rate was much higher (9.4%). No surprise that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (143 wRC+, .225 ISO) and George Springer (146 wRC+, .223 ISO) project near the top of the board tonight.

Aaron Judge (182 wRC+, .383 ISO) is the top projected FanDuel value and is joined among the top 10 by Giancarlo Stanton (105 wRC+, .210 ISO) with the smaller player pool. No complaints about Jose Suarez’s bat missing prowess (22.9 K%, 11.5 SwStr%) and his walk rate is down to 8.5% without any in his last two starts, but the contact profile continues to be a major issue. With just 36.9% of his contact on the ground, he’s allowed 9.3% Barrels/BBE with 10 of 20 leaving the yard, though only one of five (5.0%) over his last five starts. Suarez only has two Quality Starts this season, but has recorded sixth inning outs in four of his last five, while his 4.19 ERA matches his FIP and is within a quarter run of all other estimators. RHBs have a .323 wOBA and .313 ISO against Suarez this year. That’s not terrible, but this is a power friendly park.

We also find a pair of Brewers projecting among the top 10 on FanDuel in Rowdy Tellez and Christian Yelich. The Pirates will be bullpenning this one with no idea of who will be starting, but projections are assuming a RHP for the majority of the game.

Top Projecting Value Coming off Best Start Since Being Traded

With only 12 pitchers available on FanDuel tonight, one bullpen game and two $11K pitchers, there are probably only a couple of other arms you might consider using with a single pitcher slot and both carry a lot of volatility. Projecting as the second or third best overall arm on either board and a top two value on either, Franke Montas is coming off his best of four starts as a Yankee, striking out six of 24 Mets with just two runs over six innings. It’s difficult to figure out immediately what was responsible. It may have just been that the Mets were exhausted from eight games in seven days in Atlanta and Philly without a day off, but the Yankees will take it, as Montas had allowed 14 runs over his first 14 innings with the team, striking out just eight of 68. Hopefully, his most recent start at least quelled some concerns about lingering shoulder issues. He’s still gone six innings in just one of his last seven starts though. Season numbers, which include a 17.2 K-BB%, are fine, though he may not be considered the front of the rotation arm Oakland thought they might be trading a few months ago. A 3.95 xERA is the only estimators above his 3.84 ERA, though all are within half a run. The Angels are a bottom five offense against both fastballs (-0.62 wFB/C) and Splitters (-2.49 wFS/C), which make up 75% of Montas’s arsenal. He struck out a season high 12 of 24 Angels in an earlier season start against them, but left a second one after just six batters with an injury. They have a 94 wRC+ and 26.8 K% vs RHP this season.

You may never know what to expect out of Jose Berrios before the game starts, but will probably know where you stand pretty quickly after it does. He’s struck out 15 of his last 50 batters with four runs allowed over his last 12.2 innings pitched, but struck out just two of 41 with 13 runs over 7.2 innings in his previous two. Overall, he has a league average 21.2 K% with good control (5.7 BB%) and a disastrous contact profile (11.1% Barrels/BBE) with 27 of 46 barrels leaving the yard (16.3 HR/FB). Estimators range widely, from a 3.93 SIERA to a 5.25 xERA that nearly matches his 5.28 ERA. The Cubs have a 98 wRC+ and 23.1 K% vs RHP. Berrios projects as the fourth best FanDuel value ($8.5K) and sixth best on DraftKings ($7.6K).

Ranger Suarez has shown signs of last year’s version, but hasn’t been able to do it with any consistency. Following a pair of seven inning starts with a single run allowed against the Mets and Reds on the road, he returned home to strike out five of 26 Reds with four walks. We can at least say that the contact profile (55.8 GB%, 86.6 mph EV, 6.4% Barrels/BBE, 31.1 mph EV) has been more consistent than the peripherals (11.3 K-BB%) or workload. He has at least seven innings in five of his last 16 starts, but only six innings two other times. A 3.38 ERA is below all estimators, but runs more closely to contact inclusive ones (3.58 xERA). Problematically, he’s fairly expensive at $8.8K, though he is in a favorable spot (Diamondbacks 90 wRC+, 23.0 K% vs LHP). Suarez projects as a better FanDuel value, despite the higher price.

In terms of a DraftKings SP2 type punt, Brayan Bello returned to the majors after a three week absence to strike out a career high seven of 21 Blue Jays (15.8 SwStr%) to bring his 22 inning rate to 20.4% (11.0 SwStr%). Walks have been a problem (11.1%), but 67.6% of his contact has been on the ground with just an 87.2 mph EV and two barrels (2.8%). While the contact profile is far from stabilizing, Bello did strike out AA and AAA batters at a rate above 30% over the last couple of years, but with some control issues. The 23 year-old does have a 50 Future Value grade from Fangraphs, who rank him as the team’s third best prospect and 38th among the top 100. Bello would be wise to toss lots of changeups (23.8%, -0.6 RV/100, 43.6 Whiff%, .291 xwOBA) at the Twins. It’s his best pitch and the one they perform worse against (-0.2 wCH/C is sixth worst in the league). They have a 112 wRC+ and 22.1 K% vs RHP, but Bello costs less than $6K.

Tough Spot For Pitcher with Double Digit Ks in Four of His Last Six

The Monday night slate includes six games on FanDuel, but eight on DraftKings, starting a half hour earlier. Half of tonight’s games take place in domes, one pitcher is making his season debut and another team is throwing their bullpen tonight. There are two $10K pitchers on the board, while one available on DraftKings only exceeds $9.5K. Within $100 of $11K on either site, but only the most expensive on DraftKings, Carlos Rodon has struck out at least 10 in four of his last six starts and has allowed a total of five runs over his last five, though he has allowed seven barrels (9.6%) over that span. Rodon has struck out 32.1% of batters this season, allowing just 6.2% Barrels/BBE. While he’s benefited a bit from just nine of 22 barrels leaving the yard (5.8 HR/FB), his 2.81 ERA is within two-tenths of a run of all non-FIP estimators. He’s in a difficult spot, hosting the Padres (103 wRC+, 20.5 K% vs LHP). Tonight’s projected lineup includes just three batters above a 17.5 K% vs LHP, according to PlateIQ. For this reason, Rodon is either the third or fourth best projected pitcher on a 16 (or 12) pitcher board and a middle to bottom of the board projected value. If there’s a chance this will suppress his ownership, he’s the perfect GPP play tonight. For more on tonight’s most expensive arms, including the top projected pitcher on the board, check out Monday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

LaMonte Wade Jr. (hip) scratched Friday

LaMonte Wade Jr. (hip) scratched Friday

The Offense Projected to Hang with the Phillies Tonight

On a 14 game Friday night slate, no stack currently projects for double digit ownership on either site. The Phillies, who top the board at 5.76 implied runs, as one of only two teams above five runs, do project to be the most popular stack, but not by much. No stack projects to be in even 7.5% of lineups on FanDuel tonight (though projections are updated throughout the day). The Phillies also project to smash the slate most often and here we do get into double digits with both the Phillies and Astros (4.67) not too far behind them. Houston will be hosting the barrel prone Kyle Bradish (9.6% Barrels/BBE, 91.5 mph EV). For all their faults, the White Sox still handle LHP well (119 wRC+) and project as the top value stack on FanDuel with a bit of separation between themselves and the second best projected value stack. On DraftKings, it’s a cheap Washington lineup against Mike Minor (lowest estimator is a 4.72 xERA) that projects as the top value stack, though the Pirates project for lots of value against Bailey Falter as well. Despite the 14.0 K-BB% and due to the low ground ball rate, a 4.30 SIERA is the only estimator below his 4.40 ERA and the current weather forecast suggests Philly can be a very dangerous park to pitch in tonight. You can probably guess the tonight’s top rated stacks from the information above, but to find out which magical pitcher projections still don’t believe in, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Top Offenses Include Top Projected Values on FanDuel

Kyle Schwarber (134 wRC+, .315 ISO vs RHP this season) does not repeat as the top projected FanDuel bat and value tonight. He’s merely the third best projected FanDuel value with a hefty price hike of $100. However, along with the top projected bats of Philly (Schwarber, Bryce Harper and Rhys Hoskins) you can also find Schwarber and a $2.1K Bradley Zimmer (38 wRC+, .149 ISO) among the top 10 projected FD values in this great spot with great weather against Bryse Wilson (LHBs .424 wOBA, .382 xwOBA this season). At even $100 less, Zimmer is the only Philadelphia bat among the top 10 projected DraftKings values.

Despite the second highest team run total on the board (5.38), the Mets don’t project any top 10 bats tonight, but do project a pair of top 10 values. It’s been over three weeks since Chad Kuhl’s last major league start and there have been rumors that the Rockies have been reworking his delivery while on the IL. He struck out six of 21 batters in a lone rehab start. With a 3.7 K-BB% in his last 14 starts before hitting the injured list, they might as well tried having him pitch left-handed. It couldn’t get much worse. The only time Kuhl has allowed fewer than three runs in his last 10 starts was when he shut out the Dodgers at Coors because baseball. His 5.16 ERA is within two-tenths of a run of all estimators. LHBs have a .371 wOBA and .354 xwOBA against him this year. Daniel Vogelbach (154 wRC+, .265 ISO) has been slowed a bit by a hamstring issue, but he and Brandon Nimmo (129 wRC+, .144 ISO) both cost less than $3K.

The top projected value on FanDuel is A.J. Pollock (141 wRC+, .279 ISO) for just $2.5K. Tommy Henry struck out just three in each of his first three major league starts, walking eight of 73 batters as well. His 12.3 K-BB% at AAA didn’t suggest much upside either, so it makes perfect sense that he dominated the best offense against LHP in the league, striking out seven of 22 Cardinals last time out with a single walk. Yet, with just a 7.3 K-BB% his 3.57 ERA is at least nine-tenths of a run below all estimators. Recently turning 25, Henry has just a 40 Future Value grade (Fangrpahs) and probably shouldn’t be expected to be much more than a back end starter, if that. RHBs have a .304 wOBA, but .332 xwOBA against him. Pollock is joined as a top projected value by Luis Robert (179 wRC+, .169 ISO) and Josh Harrison (94 wRC+) with the latter costing $100 more than the minimum.

On DraftKings, the lineups that project for the most value are poor offenses with extremely cheap bats against below average pitching. Both the Nationals and Tigers post a pair of top five projected DK values. Mike Minor has produced a single Quality Start this season and has only allowed less than two runs twice. With just a 17.1 K% and 33.1 GB%, 18 of 24 barrels (9.8%) have left the yard. That’s the price of doing business in Cincinnati and shouldn’t be so harsh on the road, but his lowest estimator is still a 4.72 xERA. RHBs have a .416 wOBA and .360 xwOBA against him. Expected to bat leadoff, Alex Call (68 wRC+, .143 ISO) and Lane Thomas (89 wRC+, .162 ISO) both cost the minimum. Thomas also projects as a top 10 FanDuel value for $2.3K.

The Tigers are the worst offense in the league against RHP (69 wRC+), but with nine walks and just two strikeouts over his last 49 batters faced, Glenn Otto is now down to a 4.5 K-BB%, while allowing 9.3% Barrels/BBE. His 4.66 ERA is more than half a run below all estimators. LHBs have just a .285 wOBA, but .358 xwOBA against Otto this year. Victor Reyes (103 wRC+) and Harold Castro (100 wRC+) cost the minimum. Willi Castro (82 wRC+) also sneaks inside the list of top 10 projected DK values at the same cost.

Many of the Top Projected Bats Can Be Found in One Game

The Phillies have made a habit of topping the board this week and they do so once again, starting a home series against the Pirates with weather that could potentially make the park play like Coors tonight. With 28 teams on the board, the Phillies are one of just two above five implied runs (5.76) with a bit of separation between themselves and the Mets, who could also experience some very hitter friendly weather at Citi Field tonight. Six more teams exceed four and a half run team totals. If you’ve been reading this space this week, a lot of this may sound familiar, even repetitive, but Kyle Schwarber (134 wRC+, .315 ISO vs RHP this season) is once again the top projected bat on the board. They keep on feeding him weak NL Central pitching in Philly. Bryse Wilson has good control (5.8 BB%), but has also struck out just 15% of batters with a 91.3 mph EV. His 5.74 ERA isn’t that much above estimators ranging from a 4.49 xFIP to a 5.50 xERA. LHBs have a .424 wOBA and .382 xwOBA against him this year. Oh, and by the way, some guy named Bryce Harper (174 wRC+, .311 ISO) is back tonight. It’s supposed to be kind of a big deal and projections agree. Rhys Hoskins (107 wRC+, .203 ISO) projects among the top 10 bats tonight too. RHBs “only” have a .317 wOBA and .338 xwOBA against Wilson this season.

The Angels also register a pair of top 10 projected bats. With just a 3.63 implied run line, of course you know who they are. It seems the Blue Jays are holding the leash on Mitch White tighter than even the Dodgers were. He hasn’t completed five innings or gone beyond 85 pitches in any of his three starts for them. He’s only struck out 17.7% of batters faced with a 7.7 SwStr% in a starting role, while not standing out in any other key area, though he’s allowed only 5.2% Barrels/BBE. Thus, his contact inclusive estimators are closer than more neutral ones to his 3.45 ERA as a starter. Batters from either side have been between a .295 and .311 wOBA and xwOBA against him this season, but Shohei Ohtani (156 wRC+, .286 ISO) and Mike Trout (165 wRC+, .362 ISO) are likely to be facing a lot of a Toronto bullpen with a matching 3.71 FIP & SIERA over the last 30 days. Trout’s newly discovered back condition has him down to a 154 wRC+ since returning from the IL.

An early season, contact prone, BABIP wizard, a trip to the minors served as a wake-up call for Reid Detmers, as the three Tigers he struck out last time out served as the first time he’s had fewer than six strikeouts in seven starts since returning. He has a 30.4 K% over his last nine starts (23.4% on the season) and considering the improvements, this is one time that maybe we should lean towards the 3.66 ERA rather than estimators ranging from a 4.05 SIERA to a 4.21 FIP because he appears to be a much better pitcher now, even as his BAIBP regresses (.254 season, .327 last nine starts). However, he’s still a LHP facing a dangerous Toronto lineup that can stack entirely from the RH side (.311 wOBA, .322 xwOBA against Detmers this year, though that may be a bit outdated too). Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (122 wRC+, .184 ISO) and George Springer (127 wRC+, .182 ISO) are top projected bats tonight. The Blue Jays have the fourth highest team run total on the board (4.89).

This Top Projected Value Has Struggled Since IL Return

One of the pitchers who project as better values than Gerrit Cole on FanDuel aren’t pitchers you’d consider using on a single pitcher site (Mike Minor in Washington), but the other two are at least a little bit interesting. Bailey Falter struck out a season high eight Pirates when he last faced this team two starts back and followed it up with his second Quality Start in a row and of the season against the Mets. A 20.7 K% is good enough, when paired with a 6.7 BB%. Problematically in this park, only 26.9% of his contact has been on the ground, leading to 9.7% Barrels/BBE with 10 of his 13 barrels leaving the yard (14.9 HR/FB). Despite the 14.0 K-BB% and due to the low ground ball rate, a 4.30 SIERA is the only estimator below his 4.40 ERA, though he may be able to make it work against this offense again (81 wRC+, 26.2 K% vs LHP). Costing less than $7K on either site and $500 less on FanDuel, the top projected FD value (top five on DK) may have to deal with some extremely hitter friendly weather in Philly. Check back on Weather Edge later if wishing to roster him in this premium matchup.

Freddy Peralta is the second best projected arm and third best projected value on both sites. Costing less than $9K against the Cubs (99 wRC+, 23.0 K% vs RHP) at home, this should be a no brainer. However, there are some potential issues here. Peralta worked through 25 batters and 95 pitches last time out and should no longer have any limitations, but has struck out just 15 of 77 batters since returning from the IL with nine walks. While he does have an 11.9 SwStr% over this span, even that’s well below his normal standard. On a positive note, he’s allowed just five barrels (3.3%) all season with just a 42.4 GB%. That may not be sustainable, but it’s keeping his ERA in check while he figures out why he can’t put batters away right now. His 4.08 ERA is above estimators ranging from a 3.09 FIP to a 3.64 SIERA/xFIP, but that’s all based on his season 26.9 K%. If you, like projections believe this is a very temporary phase, then he’s one of the top options on the board. One additional thing to beware of, check on the roof status in Milwaukee, as it’s a much more hitter friendly run environment when it’s open.

Fangraphs rates Cade Cavalli as the second best prospect in the Washington system and the 20th best in the league with a 55 Future Value grade. The highly regarded 24 year-old rookie has a 25.9 K%, but 9.7 BB% in 97 AAA innings this year. He’s struck out 20 of his last 46 batters with five walks. Even if he’s not blowing AAA out of the water, you can understand why he projects as tonight’s top DraftKings value for $5K ($7.3K and the sixth best projected FanDuel value) against the Reds, who are so banged up that their 83 wRC+ and 24.2 K% vs RHP may actually be their ceiling at this point.

As far as additional SP2 types go, we probably have to mention Glenn Otto only because he is facing the Tigers (69 wRC+, 25.1 K%, 7.2 HR/FB vs RHP) for $6.2K on DK. With nine walks and just two strikeouts over his last 49 batters faced, he is now down to a 4.5 K-BB%, while allowing 9.3% Barrels/BBE though. His 4.66 ERA is more than half a run below all estimators. What happens when the resistible force meets the movable object?