DFS Alerts

Jeremy Peña scratched Monday.

Jeremy Peña scratched Monday.

Jonathan India scratched Monday.

Jonathan India scratched Monday.

The Surprising Stack That Projects to Smash the Slate Most Often

The Toronto Blue Jays and Minnesota Twins are tied atop the board at just under five implied runs, so it probably makes some sense that they are essentially projected in a tie to be the most popular stack on DraftKings tonight, while on FanDuel the Twins slightly edge out the Blue Jays as the only stack with double digit projected ownership. The stack that projects to smash the slate most often in early simulations is the Houston Astros, who are currently in a three way tie for the fifth highest team run total at 4.44. Finding a team with a team run total this low atop the Smash% column is a bit of a surprise, though there’s isn’t much separation, between the top four projected offenses tonight (the second of which is actually the Giants). Johnny Cueto has 13 Quality Starts in 15 attempts, including eight straight. He’s done this with an elite walk rate (5.6%), but 16.5 K% and every single estimator more than a run above his 2.91 ERA (81.4 LOB%). The expected regression here is certainly a valid reason for Houston projecting better here than they do for sportsbooks. Cheap RH platoon bats against Madison Bumgarner gives San Francisco stacks the runaway top projected value, as is often the case when they’re facing marginal left-handed pitching. For much more on tonight’s top rated stacks, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

This Lineup Almost Always Projects Top Values Against LHP

While there are a lot of high upside mid-range arms tonight, they’re almost all also highly volatile arms in dangerous spots as well, which means that you’re probably paying up for pitching tonight and without a single offense above five implied runs, maybe you want to fill out the majority of your lineup with value bats. To start with, the Giants are facing a marginal lefty, which generally means that by rostering some cheap RHBs (with some pinch-hit risk), you can generally do whatever else you want in your lineups. This is especially true on FanDuel, where Austin Slater (138 wRC+, .156 ISO vs LHP this season), Evan Longoria (101 wRC+, .155 ISO) and Brandon Belt (102 wRC+) are all top of the board projected values for $2.6K or less. With just a 16.5 K% on the season and 90.1 mph EV, Madison Bumgarner’s estimators range from a 4.51 FIP to a 5.32 DRA, all more than one-third of a run above his 4.13 ERA (10 of 66 runs unearned). Batters from either side of the plate are between a .327 and .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him this year. We should also mention that J.D. Davis (126 wRC+, .176 ISO) is in a similar price range and has a 158 wRC+ over the last 30 days. Luis Gonzalez (68 wRC+) is the only top projected DraftKings value in this lineup, costing the minimum, although Davis is also less than $3K.

Each of the top nine projected values on DraftKings cost $2.1K or less. In fact, only one of them (Vinnie Pasquantino) costs even that much. While Pasquantino (117 wRC+, .203 ISO) and Nick Pratto (81 wRC+, .203 ISO) are the only pair of teammates that appear on this list, it doesn’t mean much because they both play the same position, though Pratto has recently gained OF eligibility on DK. LHBs only have a .310 wOBA and .311 xwOBA against Joe Ryan this year, but we’re talking about a pair of decent power bats in an average spot at minimal cost.

If we drop down one more spot, we also find a pair of Cubs among the top 10 projected DraftKings Value. Rafael Ortega (88 wRC+, .119 ISO) costs a lofty $2.8K with Zach McKinstry (48 wRC+) costing the minimum against the very barrel (11.2%) and walk (9.5%) prone Josiah Gray. LHBs have a .388 wOBA and .342 xwOBA against Gray this year. Optimistically for Gray, Ian Happ (114 wRC+, .162 ISO) is the only other LHB in this projected lineup. With Gray holding RHBs to a .310 wOBA (.258 xwOBA), there’s justification for stacking LH Cubs, while using Gray (26.3 K%) in additional lineups.

Large Reverse Platoon Split Could Be Problematic for Tonight's Matchup

On a 10 game slate that doesn’t include Coors, Cincinnati or many very positive run environments at all, not a single offense exceeds five implied runs, though the Blue Jays (4.96) and Twins (4.96) come in just under with the Yankees and Giants also above four and a half run team totals. The result is that we don’t really find PlateIQ batter projections (which are fluid and subject to change) dominated by any particular lineup.

The Twins do project the most top 10 batters tonight (three on DraftKings, two on FanDuel). Kris Bubic still has a 5.02 ERA with all estimators above four and a half, which really illustrates how poorly his season started because over his last five starts, he’s allowed 12 runs (eight earned) over 31.2 innings (2.27 ERA/3.65 FIP/3.96 xFIP) with a 13.3 K-BB%. However, he’s also allowed nine barrels (9.8%) over this span with just three turning into home runs. That’s actually a bit higher than his season rate (9.0% Barrels/BBE, 45.1% 95+ mph EV), though we also have to note that he’s been having his recent success against offenses that have crushed LHP this year (White Sox, Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays). He gets another tough one here. Despite their 103 wRC+ and 20.4 K% vs LHP, only three batters in their projected lineup exceed a 99 wRC+ or .131 ISO vs LHP this season, so the books may be over-valuing the Twins here, but if you’re going to stack Twins, be sure to include the three batters the projections like the most: Byron Buxton (171 wRC+, .380 ISO), Carlos Correa (144 wRC+, .183 ISO) and Luis Arraez (90 wRC+), though Jose Miranda (129 wRC+, .256 ISO) has hit LHP well too. RHBs have a .312 wOBA and .334 xwOBA against Bubic this year, while LHBs are above .400, which explains Arraez’s healthy projection.

The Blue Jays are the only other offense to feature multiple top 10 projected bats in their matchup against Kyle Bradish, who’s 14.1 K-BB% is fine. He’s both struck out and walked batters at a near league average pace, but 13 of his 19 barrels (10.2%) have left the yard with a 91.1 mph EV overall. The new dimensions in Baltimore haven’t helped him much, as 10 of those home runs have been surrendered at home. After completing six innings in two of his first three starts, he hasn’t done so in any of his last 10. A 6.42 ERA is more than two runs above contact neutral estimators, but his FIP and xERA exceed five. Incredibly problematic for this matchup, RHBs have torched Bradish (.435 wOBA, .394 xwOBA). Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (138 wRC+ .218 ISO vs RHP this season) and Alejandro Kirk (141 wRC+, .158 ISO) are top of both top five projected bats tonight.

Aaron Judge (183 wRC+, .387 ISO vs LHP this year) is the top projected bat on the board against Jalen Beeks and Ryan Yarbrough (RHBs .380 wOBA, .365 xwOBA this season), but is not joined by any other Yankees among the top 10 tonight, though Gleyber Torres (155 wRC+, .320 ISO) and Jose Trevino (195 wRC+, .342 ISO) have hammed LHP as well.

Plenty of Volatile, But High Upside Mid-Range Arms on Monday Night

This is a slate where you’re probably paying up for pitching, as the top pitchers on the board are generally the top projected values as well. There are some exceptions in a couple of lower priced high upside arms, but with those high strikeout rates come some extremely high barrel rates as well. There’s a reason these pitchers cost less than $9K. Yusei Kikuchi has struck out exactly one-quarter of the batters he’s faced and that’s where the good news ends. He’s walked 13.1% with a 22.5 HR/FB that you’d think has to regress, but the contact profile includes a 91.6 mph EV, 47.9% 95+ mph EV and 15.6% Barrels/BBE. He’s allowed 14 home runs on 21 barrels (21.0%) over his last 10 starts. That’s more than a barrel for every five batted balls. The O’s took him deep three times last time out. Despite a predominantly right-handed lineup, the O’s also have just a 93 wRC+ and 24.9 K% vs LHP, resulting in a top of the board value projection for Kikuchi for $7K or less on either site, though he would be mighty difficult to trust on a single pitcher site.

Also projecting as a top five point per dollar value on either site, the main and obvious problem is that 29 of Josiah Gray’s 34 barrels have left the yard. While the good news is that his 18.8 HR/FB should regress, the 11.2% Barrels/BBE is still pretty awful. He can offset some of the damage with a 26.3 K%, but really needs to have a 30% strikeout rate to pitch successfully with that contact profile, especially when you add in a nearly double digit walk rate (9.5%). Gray has completed six innings in less than 40% of his starts with non-FIP estimators ranging from a 3.93 SIERA to a 4.27 xFIP. The Cubs do have a 100 wRC+ vs RHP with a 23.1 K% vs RHP, but there’s also some rain risk in this game.

Players should probably stick to one of the big three on FanDuel tonight, but along with Kikuchi and Gray, there are a few more interesting sub-$8K SP2 choices on DraftKings. Alex Cobb still has a 4.15 ERA that’s more than a run above estimators ranging from a 2.83 xFIP to a 3.13 DRA, as he struggles to consistently keep runs off the board, due to a .328 BABIP and 61.5 LOB%. His 25.3 K%, 18.2 K-BB%, 61.1 GB% and 4.2% Barrels/BBE look like a top of the rotation star. Cobb does have five Quality Starts in his last seven, but only twice with less than three earned runs. The Diamondbacks have a 93 wRC+ and 21.9 K% vs RHP.

Joe Ryan was lit up for six runs over five innings by the Dodgers last time out after being crushed for 10 by the Padres two starts early, while striking out nine of 20 Tigers in between, which all really doesn’t give us much help in trying to figure him out. He had struck out 23 of 66 batters entering that Dodger start, but again, two of those starts were against Detroit. He hasn’t completed six innings in any of his last six starts, five of his 15 home runs and 24 barrels this season came in that start against San Diego. It might be hard to understand how a 23.4 K%, 6.5 BB% and 8.9% Barrels/BBE works out to a 3.49 xERA, but no other estimators below four. A 27.6 GB% may be one reason why. A 3.95 ERA is aligned fairly closely to a 4.09 SIERA. The Royals are similar in scale to the Diamondbacks here (92 wRC+, 21.9 K% vs RHP).

A more sinker heavy Marcus Stroman has a 54.5 GB% in six start back from the IL, while his 16.7 K-BB% over this span aligns perfectly with his season rate. His 90.1 mph EV is actually nearly a mile per hour lower too, so there seems to be no drawbacks to returning to his sinker throwing ways. He has allowed multiple home runs in each of his last two starts and with a 93.2 Z-Contact% and 47% 95+ mph EV, well…that’s why you want more ground balls in the first place. Stroman has only completed six innings in 40% of his starts this year, while a 4.41 xERA is not only his only estimator above a 4.20 ERA, but the only one above four. The Nationals have a 93 wRC+ and 19.7 K% vs RHP, which is probably quite a bit worse since trading Soto and Bell, though they still don’t strike out a ton.

Over his last five starts, Julio Urias has allowed four runs in 33 innings with 31 strikeouts and just two walks. Despite completing seven innings three times in this span, the Dodgers have only let him exceed 91 pitches once and that was a six inning start. It’s rather extreme efficiency that allows Urias to get through six innings on a regular basis (5.0 BB%, 86.6 mph EV, 29.5% 95+ mph EV). The 24.2 K% is more above average that elite. That said, a .240 BABIP and 80.4 LOB% don’t hurt. A 2.79 xERA is the only non-FIP estimator within a run of his 2.49 ERA. Urias throws his curveball (-0.7 RV/100, wOBA & xwOBA below .300) 32.9% of the time. It’s a pitch Milwaukee struggles with (-0.42 wCB/C), especially against LHP (87 wRC+, 25.0 K% vs LHP). Urias is a bit of a higher priced arm, but in a better spot than many people might realize.

Carlos Carrasco owns a 23.7 K% that’s above average, but below his career standard, though his 13.5 K% is actually above his career rate. He also now has four Quality Starts with at least six strikeouts in his last five. A 4.06 xERA is the only estimator above his 3.76 ERA. He doesn’t project extremely well for more than $8.5K in a tough spot with a park downgrade, but the Braves (104 wRC+, 16.0 K% vs RHP) also have a 25.4 K% vs RHP this year.

If you’re looking for a pure SP2 punt on DraftKings, Glenn Otto ($5.6K) has struck out 22 of his last 95 batters to push his season rate up to 18.9%, though an 11.8 BB% is certainly a drawback. He’s also allowed a 14.0 HR/FB, but just 12 of 23 barrels (9.5%) have left the yard. His 5.20 ERA sits between estimators ranging from a 4.90 SIERA to a 5.56 xERA. Pushing his strikeout rate up to league average would be a start, but he’ll need a lot more help than that and Oakland (79 wRC+, 23.8 K% vs RHP) might give it to him.

The Pitcher Who Separates Himself from the Board in a High Upside Spot

A 10 game Monday night slate features one-quarter of the board reaching $10K on FanDuel, though just two on DraftKings without anyone else above $9K on both sites. With Gerrit Cole, there’s a great chance you’re going to get at least six innings and seven strikeouts. He’s done that in 15 of his 23 starts this year. When a pitcher has a 26.5 K-BB%, you generally don’t worry too much about the contact profile, but Cole will also occasionally allow some bombs. He’s allowed multiple home runs in four of his last 12 starts and a total of 15 over this span, which only includes 16 barrels (9.1%). With the 16.2 HR/FB, his 3.38 ERA is in line with a 3.25 FIP and not too far ahead of a 3.08 xERA with more contact neutral estimators below three. Cole is in a high upside spot at home against the Rays (100 wRC+, 24.6 K% vs RHP) as the only pitcher exceeding $10K on both sites. He is the top projected pitcher on the board by a quite a large margin. He’s also the top projected value on either site, which will likely also make him the most popular pitcher on the board. For more on a couple of top end Cole pivots, check out Monday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

MJ Melendez scratched Sunday

MJ Melendez scratched Sunday

Neither Coors Offense Projects to Smash the Slate Most Often

While the two Coors teams do currently project to be the most popular stacks on a 13 game board (though projections are fluid and updated throughout the day), neither gets to 10% on a board that includes three more teams above five and a half implied runs. The Smash% column is a really interesting one today because neither Coors offense projects to smash the slate most often in early simulations. In fact, while the Dodgers currently smash the board most often as the only stack with a double digit Smash% on DraftKings, the Padres actually smash slightly more often on FanDuel, where non team reaches a double digit projection. Where we do find a dominant stack on both sites is the Value column, where San Francisco stacks currently project for more than twice the value (FanDuel) or even three times (DraftKings) any other team. Check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog to find out which stack, not mentioned above, currently projects to be a top rated one.

Projections See a Lot of Value in this Cheap West Coast Lineup

What we’ve seen a lot of this year is that neither DraftKings, nor FanDuel have been pricing up opposing offenses at Coors this year, resulting in many of those batters doubling as top projected bats and values. Though Seth Beer (51 wRC+ vs RHP this year) is the top projected DK value for $2K, you won’t find many Coors bats among the top 10 projected values on either site tonight. Value projects are pretty much dominated by a quality offense facing a below average pitcher in a park that’s played much more neutrally over the last few seasons. The only positive attribute Bryse Wilson adds to the Pittsburgh rotation is a 6.1 BB%. He’s struck out just 15.8% of batters with an average ground ball rate and 91.3 mph EV. That said, while his 5.86 ERA is at least three-tenths of a run above all estimators, they run only as low as a 4.45 xFIP. LHBs have punished him to the tune of a .438 wOBA and .390 xwOBA this season. Although not the same batters, four of the top five projected values on either site are Giants tonight. On FanDuel, LaMonte Wade (132 wRC+, .250 ISO), Brandon Belt (112 wRC+, .174 ISO), Tommy La Stella (93 wRC+. .149 ISO) and Joc Pederson (133 wRC+, .250 ISO) all cost $2.6K or less with Brandon Crawford (82 wRC+) projecting strongly as well in the same price range. On DraftKings, Crawford, La Stella, Luis Gonzalez (120 wRC+, .143 ISO) and Wade all cost $2.6K or less as well with Austin Wynns (69 wRC+) also projecting for strong value for $2K.

While no other pair of teammates project as top of the board DraftKings values, both Yasmani Grandal (145 wRC+, .064 ISO vs LHP this year – almost all his value comes from walking!) and Josh Harrison (90 wRC+, .131 ISO) project as top 10 FanDuel values for $2.1K each against Daniel Norris (RHBs .404 wOBA, .362 xwOBA) and the Detroit bullpen. Yuli Gurriel (83 wRC+, .124 wRC+ vs RHP in 2022) and Chas McCormick (83 wRC+. .145 ISO) also project strongly for $2.4K each against Adam Oller (RHBs .404 wOBA, .346 xwOBA). Despite the small samples, apparently serving up wOBAs above .400 does not lead to much success for pitchers. Who knew?

The Offense with More Top Projected Bats Than Either Coors Team

It’s usually the opposing team at Coors that has the highest implied run line on the board, but tonight, it’s the home team above six runs (6.17) against Zach Davies with the visiting Diamondbacks not far behind (5.83). The Padres, Astros and Dodgers also have team run totals exceeding five and a half runs with six more at the 4.5 run mark or higher. While we do find that 40% of the top 10 projected batters on either site are Coors bats, it’s only a pair from each team atop the board. Charlie Blackmon (96 wRC+, .211 ISO vs RHP this year) is projected as the third best bat on the board with teammate C.J. Cron (136 wRC+, .247 ISO) not too far below. While Zach Davies did throw five shutout innings at the Rockies last time out, he’s now struck out just nine of his last 77 batters to drop his season strikeout rate to 18.2% (9.9 K-BB%) and he had allowed 11 runs (four home runs) over his previous 11 innings. It’s almost as if he was frightened of reaching a 20% strikeout rate, so he stopped. Generally a strong contact manager (86.1 mph EV, 31.4% 95+ mph EV this year), he’s even allowed eight barrels (10.3%) over his last five starts. His 4.03 season ERA is below estimators ranging from a 4.11 xERA to 4.57 SIERA. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .302 and .328 wOBA and xwOBA against Davies this year, while his recent issues may only be exacerbated at Coors.

On the other side, Antonio Senzatela has completed 19.2 innings over his last three starts with three straight Quality Starts, but holds a 4.68 ERA that’s in between estimators ranging widely from a 4.05 xFIP to a 5.38 xERA and DRA on the season. He rarely walks batters (5.3%), but nearly as rarely strikes them out (13.3%). He has a 90.5 mph EV, but limited barrels to 4.9% with nearly half his contact (48.5%) on the ground. Projections like a pair of LHBs against him the most, in Daulton Varsho (121 wRC+, .229 ISO) and Ketel Marte (109 wRC+, .175 ISO). Batters from that side of the plate have a .378 wOBA and .336 xwOBA against Senzatela this year, while RHBs have actually been better (.402 wOBA, .376 xwOBA).

With only six spots remaining among the top 10 projected bats tonight, the Dodgers claim half of them. At times this season, Daniel Lynch has flashed some of the tools that have led Fangraphs prospect writers to slap a 50 Future Value grade on him. He has a 28.3 K% and 21.1 K-BB% over his last seven starts, but with a .389 BABIP. On the season, he has a very competent 14.1 K-BB%, though the contact profile is a concern, despite just 7.9% Barrels/BBE (91.1 mph EV, 47% 95+ mph EV). The hard contact has shown up more in the .339 BABIP. His 4.79 ERA is a bit above estimators ranging from a 4.08 FIP to a 4.43 DRA. As mentioned, he’s recently been showing signs of being much better than that, though the Dodgers will certainly be a massive test and the weather in an already positive run environment in Kansas City is currently expected to favor hitters. RHBs have a .338 wOBA and .319 xwOBA against Lync this year, while LHBs have a .322 wOBA, but .366 xwOBA. Projections favor the top third of the Dodger lineups, which essentially includes three MVP candidates in Mookie Betts (180 wRC+, .299 ISO), Freddie Freeman (139 wRC+, .178 ISO) and Trea Turner (173 wRC+, .296 ISO).

By the way, the top projected bat on the board is Juan Soto (176 wRC+, .286 ISO) in his (week) long awaited return to Washington against Cory Abbott (LHBs .455 wOBA, .300 xwOBA).

Strong Matchups for Many Mid-Range Pitchers

While the top two pitchers on the board separate themselves enough from the rest of the board to remain top five values on either site, they aren’t the only interesting arms on the board. Plenty of pitchers in the $8-9K range on FanDuel project as strong values as well, if players wish to fill their lineups out with more expensive bats. Michael Kopech has just a 3.8 K-BB% over his last eight starts and has completed six innings just twice in his last 10. He has just a 9.1 K-BB% on the season with a 3.38 mostly the product of a .230 BABIP and 79.2 LOB%. On a positive note, he’s throwing his four-seamer 61.5% of the time (-0.6 RV/100, 25.4 Whiff%) and facing the worst fastball hitting offense in the majors (-0.69 wFC/C). As you may have guessed, the matchup (Tigers board low 67 wRC+, 24.9 K%, 7.1 HR/FB vs RHP) is the reason he projects as a top two value on either site tonight. He costs $8.2K on FanDuel and more than $1K less on DraftKings. While he’s in the “hard to trust” category there may be even less faith that the Detroit offense can do anything at all against right-handed pitching.

More on his own merits, but also in a great matchup, Luis Garcia is now pitching deeper into games, facing 79 batters over his last three starts. He’s struck out only 17 of them, allowing 11 runs over those 18.2 inning though. This is mostly due to a 63.1 LOB%, but also the reduced strikeout rate. He still has a 25.5 K% on the season with only 34.4% of his contact reaching a 95 mph EV. While 18 of his 24 barrels (7.8%) have left the yard, his 3.93 ERA is a bit above non-FIP estimators ranging from a 3.37 xERA to a 3.72 xFIP. The A’s have a 79 wRC+ and 23.8 K% vs RHP. Garcia projects in an essential tie with the next pitcher as third best on the board and as a top five value on FanDuel, where he is more than $1K cheaper than DraftKings.

Not as many strikeouts this year for Mike Clevinger (22.9%), but with just a 6.3 BB% and 6.9% Barrels/BBE, he’s still doing quality work and has his the six inning mark in five of his last seven starts. His 3.60 ERA is below, but within half a run of estimators ranging from a 3.71 DRA to a 4.01 xFIP. The current iteration of the Washington lineup still doesn’t strike out a ton, but are probably worse than their season numbers (92 wRC+, 19.7 K% vs RHP) since the trade deadline. For $1.3K less on DraftKings, Clevinger is the second best projected value and a great SP2 choice, but can also stand on his own as the seventh best projected FanDuel value.

Finally out of Cincinnati and that band box ballpark, Tyler Mahle allowed three home runs on five barrels to the Blue Jays in his Twins debut. Counting those, 12 of his 15 home runs were surrendered at home with 15 of his 24 barrels (league average 8.0%) leaving the yard, there’s reason to believe things could improve for him in Minnesota. Behind a 25.8 K% (17.1 K-BB%), estimators ranging from a 3.39 xERA to a 3.96 xFIP are all well below a 4.49 ERA. Mahle’s best pitch is a four-seamer he utilized 51.7% of the time (-0.8 RV/100, 28.7 Whiff%, wOBA and xwOBA below .300). Why mention this? The Angels are the second worst offense in the majors against fastballs (-0.59 wFB/C). They also have the highest strikeout split on the board vs RHP (26.9% with a 96 wRC+). They’ve been one of the coldest offenses in baseball as well (67 wRC+, 21.2 K-BB% last seven days). Mahle projects as the seventh best value on either site.

While Austin Voth projects as the top point per dollar value on FanDuel for $5.9K, he probably better serves in the SP2 spot on DraftKings for just $200 more, projecting just outside the top five values. He has an impressive 16.4 K-BB% since moving into the rotation with three of seven barrels (7.2%) leaving the park. He hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of his eight starts, but also hasn’t gone beyond five innings yet. His 2.97 ERA over this span is more than half a run below estimators that are still mostly below four. In a pitcher friendly park, a matchup with the Rays (100 wRC+, 24.6 K% vs RHP) offers upside.

For just $6.8K on DraftKings ($1.7K more on FanDuel), Jordan Montgomery projects as the fourth best DK value. He left his St Louis debut (against the Yankees) after 83 pitches with a leg issue before allowing a single run, but striking out only one of the 17 batters he’s faced. While he’s been proclaimed fit to start this game, he’s been below 83 pitches in each of his last three starts and hasn’t hit 90 since before the break. Despite a 13.7 SwStr% and elite control (4.9 BB%), he continues to run a below average strikeout rate (20.2%), which push his estimators as high as 4.33 DRA. Also, despite just 6.5% Barrels/BBE and 34.7% 95+ mph EV, a 4.05 xERA is his second highest estimator. The Brewers struggle with curveballs (-0.26 wCB/C), a pitch Montgomery has utilized with some efficiency this season (21.6%, -0.5 RV/100, 42.8 Whiff%, wOBA and xwOBA below .235). They are also a below average offense against LHP (88 wRC+, 24.8 K%). Perhaps St Louis and this matchup could bring out the best in Montgomery. Regardless, for less than $7K, he’s too cheap.

Only Injuries Have Been Able to Slow Tonight's Top Projected Pitcher Down

A 13 game Friday night slate features just three $10K pitches, though all three reach that price point on both sites. Two more exceed $9K on both sites with nearly half the board in the $8-9K range. Max Scherzer is the most expensive pitcher on the board and has failed to complete six innings in just two of his 15 starts this year and once by just a single out. He hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in any of his last nine and has a 27.7 K-BB% with just 32.9% of contact reaching a 95 mph EV on the season. It seems as if he doesn’t experience age related decline and only injuries can stop him. Estimators are well above his 1.98 ERA (85.6 LOB%, 7.7 HR/FB – the latter the lowest mark of his career, pitching in the most pitcher friendly park of his career), but only his xFIP (3.13) reached three. The Phillies are the hottest offense in baseball (162 wRC+, 8.5 K-BB%, 22.6 HR/FB last seven days), but have to transition to a much power difficult park, have just a 99 wRC+ (22.4 K%) vs RHP and are now down both of their power hitting LHBs (Harper & Schwarber). Key because Scherzer has a 61 point xwOBA split this season and complete dominates RHBs (.224 wOBA, .240 xwOBA). Scherzer is the top projected pitcher on the board and the third best projected value on either site. For much more on tonight’s top of the board pitching, including the best Scherzer pivot, check out Friday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

The start of Blue Jays-Orioles will be delayed Wednesday due to inclement weather

Game update: The start of Blue Jays-Orioles will be delayed Wednesday due to inclement weather

The Stack That Competes with St Louis for Top Value on Both Sites

With more separation from the rest of the board, while facing a LHP at Coors tonight, the St Louis Cardinals are expected to be the most popular stack on the board for a second night in a row, but by a much larger margin than yesterday. In fact, with just nine games on the board, St Louis stacks currently project more than double the ownership of any other stack on FanDuel, while also projecting for 15% ownership on DraftKings as well. (Projections are fluid and subject to change.) The Cardinals also smash the slate around 20% of the time in simulations without any other team doing so at a rate higher than 12.5% (Blue Jays). As was the case yesterday, several stacks are bunched together atop the Value% column on FanDuel, one of them certainly the Cardinals, but also both teams in Arizona and the Guardians. It’s a two team competition for top value stack on DraftKings, between the Pirates and Cardinals. The St Louis lineup is expected to feature some cheaper right-handed platoon bats (Albert Pujols) tonight. For much more on the top rated stacks tonight, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.