DFS Alerts

The Cheap Lineup That Projects for Lots of Value on Both Sites

Pitching is expensive tonight and without a runaway offense above 5.25 implied runs, even with Coors on the docket, perhaps you want to fill up your lineup with value bats. For once, that doesn’t include the visiting lineup at Coors. While Brad Miller (73 wRC+) is currently the top projected DraftKings value, costing the minimum against German Marquez (LHBs .359 wOBA, .345 xwOBA), he is the only Texas (or Colorado bat) projecting as a top 10 value on either site tonight.

We do find a good chunk of the Kansas City lineup projecting as top values tonight, even with Vinnie Pasquantino expected to be out of it. Although Zach Davies did strike out six last time out and even went through a stretch where he struck out 25 of 100 batters in early June, he remains a low strikeout (18.3%) contact manager (86.3 mph EV, 31.9% 95+ mph EV). His 3.99 ERA is below estimators ranging from a 4.12 xERA to a 4.59 FIP, while he hasn’t completed six innings since before hitting the IL in June. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .296 and .324 wOBA and xwOBA against Davies this year (average is around .310) and the key here is a lot of Kansas City bats below $2.5K. On FanDuel, that includes MJ Melendez (99 wRC+, .182 ISO), a cheap leadoff bat, who is catcher eligible and projects as the top value on the site tonight, Hunter Dozier (92 wRC+, .168 ISO), Michael A. Taylor (102 wRC+) and Michael Massey (130 wRC+, .127 ISO). On DraftKings, Massey, Taylor and Nick Pratto (55 wRC+, .173 ISO) all cost no more than $2.1K.

Despite the abundance of Royals among the top 10 projected values, a pair of Phillies also find residence on that list, including Kyle Schwarber (104 wRC+, .221 ISO), who also projects as a top overall bat against Nick Lodolo (RHBs .368 wOBA, .323 xwOBA – LHB .304 wOBA, .256 xwOBA) and Nick Vierling (95 wRC+) with the latter costing just $2.1K. Vierling is also the third best projected value on DraftKings for $100 less.

We also find a pair of bottom half of the order left-handed Braves costing $2.1K or less against J.T. Brubaker (LHBs .333 wOBA, .313 xwOBA). Fortunately for Brubaker, he’ll be facing more RHBs than left, but Eddie Rosario (47 wRC+, .130 ISO) and Robbie Grossman (41 wRC+) project as top values. While their numbers against RHP this season are terrible, both have been a bit better in August with a 90+ wRC+ over the last 30 days.

The Only Offense Projecting Multiple Top 10 Bats on Both Sites

On a Tuesday night slate that includes the full 30 teams (or 28 on FanDuel), but is also loaded with top end pitching, we find two teams with 5.25 implied runs lines (both at Coors) topping the board. The Blue Jays (5.06) are the only other team exceeding or reaching a five run team total with seven more at four and a half or higher. Without either of the Coors offenses running away on a closely bunched board, this should be interesting. The results from the standpoint of batter projections (PlateIQ projections are updated throughout the day and subject to change), is that only a single team boasts multiple hitters among the top 10 tonight and it’s not a Coors offense. Despite a 13.5 K% (5.6 K-BB%) the Red Sox just keep running Josh Winckowski out there because they seemingly have no choice. He’s somehow allowed 10.1% Barrels/BBE, despite a 50.5 GB%. Essentially, one-fifth of his non-ground ball contact have been barrels. His 5.19 ERA is not that far above estimators ranging from a 4.62 xFIP to a 5.22 FIP. The projected Toronto lineup is entirely right-handed tonight and batters from that side have a .343 wOBA, but .316 xwOBA against Winckowski this season. In a hitter friendly environment like Fenway, that’s more than enough for this offense. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (145 wRC+, .229 ISO vs RHP this season) and George Springer (142 wRC+, .223 ISO) are top projected bats tonight, but the first seven in tonight’s projected lineup all exceed a 105 wRC+ vs RHP this season. The largest problem here is that this is the riskiest game on the slate from a weather perspective. A delay won’t change things much, but a dreaded PPD could have a massive effect on the entire slate, separating Coors bats further from the rest of the board.

A pair of Phillies feature as top 10 projected bats only on FanDuel tonight against Nick Lodolo, who is actually one of the more expensive pitchers on the board. The young prospect has flashed signs of greatness, but hasn’t put it all together at the big league level yet. While he’s one of the few pitchers in the league that can call Philadelphia a park upgrade, it’s still a positive run environment and very power friendly and Lodolo has had his issues with RHBs (.368 wOBA, .323 xwOBA). However, it’s a LHB (.304 wOBA, .256 xwOBA), who projects best against him. Kyle Schwarber has been nearly as dangerous against same-handed pitching (104 wRC+, .221 ISO), while Rhys Hoskins has really punished southpaws (179 wRC+, .303 ISO).

Aaron Judge (200 wRC+, .360 ISO) homered off Max Scherzer last night and is the top projected bat on the board against Taijuan Walker (RHBs .274 wOBA, .314 xwOBA), who left his last start early due to a back issue. A single Coors bat from each team project among the top 10 tonight, both from the left side. Corey Seager (121 wRC+, .189 ISO) is in a great spot against German Marquez (LHBs .359 wOBA, .345 xwOBA), while Dane Dunning sizeable splits (LHBs .369 wOBA, .346 xwOBA) should help him against a predominantly right-handed lineup, but not against Charlie Blackmon (90 wRC+, .200 ISO).

Some Top Projected Pitching Values Are Lower Priced Arms

One-third of the board costing $9K or higher are covered in today’s PlateIQ Live Blog, but that doesn’t include all of tonight’s top projected values. In fact, four of the top five projected point per dollar values on FanDuel cost less than $9K, but the question is whether you would consider using them on a single pitcher site or not. The top projected value on either site is Zach Logue, who would absolutely not consider at all on his own merits. His 6.35 ERA isn’t even above all estimators, ranging from a 5.34 SIERA to a 6.44 DRA. With only 28% of his contact on the ground 10 of 19 barrels (12.5%) have left the yard with a 6.9 K-BB%. That’s all pretty atrocious, but he’s also potentially in the top spot on the board. Despite the predominantly right-handed lineup (.395 wOBA. .383 xwOBA against Logue), the Marlins have the worst splits on the board in terms of wRC+ (70) and strikeout rate (28.2%) against LHP. In addition, Oakland is one of the most pitcher friendly environments in the league, while Logue costs $6.3K or less on either site. The only additional negative here is a hitter friendly umpiring assignment behind the plate. Enough to consider on a single pitcher site? Probably still a better SP2 in GPPs.

Opposing Logue, a first inning grand slam ensured that Pablo Lopez would not pick up a Quality Start for the seventh time in eight starts, having gone past the fifth inning in just two of those. The odd thing is that his velocity has actually increased over the last month, yet he’s allowed 18 runs over his last 18 innings with just a 14.8 K% and nine barrels (12.9%). While regression was expected from his early season league ERA leadership, he’s now come completely full circle to the point where his 3.83 ERA exceeds every estimator except for a 3.90 xERA. No estimator is more than a quarter run below actual results though. The Oakland offense (MLB worst -0.58 wCH/C, 82 wRC+ and 23.6 K% vs RHP) may be just what the doctor ordered for Lopez’s changeup (35.8%, -1.1 RV/100, 37.5 Whiff%, wOBA & xwOBA below .290). In the $8K range, Lopez projects as the third best value on either site and is probably the pitcher you’re more apt to consider on a single pitcher site.

Speaking of high upside matchups in negative run environments, perhaps Corey Kluber broke out of a BABIP fueled slump last time out against the Yankees (two runs over six innings with eight strikeouts). He had previously allowed 23 runs over 28.2 innings (.375 BABIP, 56.9 LOB%) with a 16.2 K-BB% that’s exactly two points below his 18.2% season rate. A league average strikeout rate (21.7%) with an elite walk rate (3.5%) along with a contact profile that includes a 17.2 IFFB%, 87.2 mph EV and 6.1% Barrels/BBE allow him to consistently produce six inning efforts while rarely going beyond 90 pitches. A 28.9 Z-O-Swing% ensures that batters aren’t making their best contact. Never the less, a .311 BABIP and 68.2 LOB% suggest he’s run a bit bad (Tampa Bay defense .276 BABIP allowed) with his 4.33 ERA more than a third of a run above estimators that don’t reach four. A 92 wRC+ and 27.0 K% for the Angels against RHP this season help make Kluber a top five projected value on either site for within $300 of $8K on either site, where the largest concern (aside from BABIP) is workload.

Other than that, you’re probably opting for higher priced arms on FanDuel, but from the cheaper SP2 bin on DraftKings, Aaron Civale struck out a season high 10 of 22 batters last time out. It was the Tigers, but it was also interesting to note that his velocity has been up in both starts back from the IL so far. He has a healthy 17.9 K-BB% this season, but with some contact issues (8.9% Barrels/BBE) that have led to a 4.27 xERA, which is the only estimator he has above four. His 5.63 ERA is the further product of a .341 BABIP and 59.4 LOB% and should regress. He gets a park upgrade in San Diego against an offense that’s probably better than their season numbers against RHP (102 wRC+, 21.7 K%), but only costs $7K.

J.T. Brubaker is coming off his best start of the season, shutting out the Red Sox on two hits over seven innings, striking out seven. It was his seventh Quality Start in his last 15 outings. Brubaker has struck out batters at an above average rate (23.2%), walking them at an average one (8.6%) with last year’s home run issues seemingly non-existent (9.9 HR/FB, 7.3% Barrels/BBE). His 4.19 ERA sits in the higher end of his estimators, ranging from a 3.68 FIP to a 4.24 xERA. The Braves are a dangerous offense, but one with some upside for pitchers (105 wRC+, 25.1 K%, 15.7 HR/FB vs RHP) with a predominantly right-handed lineup in a park that suppresses RH power. Brubaker costs just $200 more than Civale.

Few Recent Ceiling Performances & Tough Matchup for Tonight's Most Expensive Arm

The Tuesday night slate includes the full 15 on DraftKings, while FanDuel wisely omits the second game of the St Louis/Chicago double-header to avoid running into lineup confirmation issues should the first game run long. It’s a season record seven $10K pitchers on the board with two more reaching the $9K mark on both sites. The most expensive pitcher on the board, Corbin Burnes hasn’t had a lot of ceiling games with just three Quality Starts in his last six and more than six strikeouts in just two of those starts, but still owns a tremendous 25.2 K-BB% and has allowed 5.5% Barrels/BBE on the season. He’s recorded sixth inning outs in 20 of his last 23 starts and all non-FIP estimators are below three. He runs into the top offense in the league tonight. Though the Dodgers were shut out by Eric Lauer and friends last night, their 126 wRC+ both at home and vs RHP (21.3 K%) tops the board in either category. With the most difficult matchup on a loaded pitching board, Burnes projects as just the sixth best arm tonight and a middle to bottom of the board value. On a positive note, this is likely the lowest ownership you’ll see Burnes at all season, which is probably worth taking a shot on in GPPs. All of tonight’s most expensive arms, from the most volatile to the potentially overpriced to the top projected pitcher on the board, are covered in Tuesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Game update: Braves-Pirates expected to start at 8:05 pm ET Monday

Game update: Braves-Pirates expected to start at 8:05 pm ET Monday

Game update: Reds-Phillies expected to start at 8 pm ET Monday

Game update: Reds-Phillies expected to start at 8 pm ET Monday

Game update: Braves-Pirates will be delayed due to rain Monday

Game update: Braves-Pirates will be delayed due to rain Monday

Game update: Reds-Phillies will be delayed due to rain Monday

Game update: Reds-Phillies will be delayed due to rain Monday

Several Stacks Project to Do Some Damage on Monday Night

On an eight game board with four teams separating themselves atop the board above five implied runs with no others exceeding four and a half, we find a foursome of stacks bunched together atop projected ownership currently (though projections are fluid and updated throughout the day) in double digits on DraftKings. This bunching includes three of those teams, but then also the Cardinals instead of the Phillies, though the Phillies project to be the most popular stack on FanDuel right now, likely due to their being a bit more affordable there. We also find a virtual tie atop the Smash% column. The Cardinals and Dodgers both project to smash the slate a very nearly equal amount with the Braves not too far behind. Eric Lauer threw a Quality Start at the Dodgers last time out and the Cardinals may be dealing with pitcher friendly weather at Wrigley tonight though. No offensive stack stands out in any projected category tonight, as the Reds, Marlins and Pirates are all within two percentage points of each other as the top projected DraftKings Value stacks tonight. As mentioned before, the Phillies are a bit more affordable on FanDuel and currently project as the top value stack on that site. How does this affordability affect the Phillies in terms of Leverage? That answer and all the top rated stacks in today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Top Projected Value Has Been Tearing Up RHP

Without much in the way of viable low priced pitching tonight, players are going to need to mix in some value bats. While the recently rejuvenated Albert Pujols (225 wRC+, .380 ISO vs LHP this season) projects as the top DraftKings value, still costing the minimum, you’ll have to sacrifice the top projected bat on the board (Paul Godlschmidt) to get there in potentially pitcher friendly weather at Wrigley tonight. No other Cardinals projects as a top 10 DK value against Drew Smyly (RHBs .336 wOBA, .312 xwOBA), but we do find a pair of top FanDuel values, including Tyler O’Neill (117 wRC+, .123 ISO), who also doubles as a top overall projected bat, and Paul DeJong (110 wRC+, .156 ISO).

Jake Fraley has been tearing up RHP (163 wRC+, .313 ISO this season) and while Cincinnati is one of the few offenses that can call Philadelphia a park downgrade, it’s still the most positive run environment on the board with Fraley projecting as the top FanDuel value ($2.6K) and second best DraftKings one ($2.5K) against Noah Syndergaard (LHBs .330 wOBA, .329 xwOBA). TJ Friedl (62 wRC+) is also a top FD value, costing the minimum. On DraftKings, Fraley is joined by Nick Senzel (76 wRC+) and Mike Moustakas (80 wRC+, .158 ISO) as top 10 projected values, both costing the minimum. RHBs have been nearly average against Syndergaard (.292 wOBA, .319 xwOBA).

We can also find a pair of min-costing Pirates in Tucupita Marcano (66 wRC+) and Greg Allen (79 wRC+) projecting as reasonable punts against Jake Odorizzi (LHBs .313 wOBA, .315 xwOBA) on DraftKings, along with J.J. Bleday (116 wRC+, .224 ISO) and Brian Anderson (99 wRC+) against Adam Oller (LHBs .400+ wOBA & xwOBA, RHBs .389 wOBA, but .329 xwOBA).

On FanDuel, Kyle Schwarber (134 wRC+, .316 ISO vs RHP this season) projects as a top 10 bat and the second best value for $3.2K. Luis Cessa will start this game for the Reds, but hasn’t thrown even 25 pitches in an outing since June. The Cincinnati pen has just a 3.39 FIP and 3.41 SIERA over the last 30 days. Rhys Hoskins (110 wRC+, .209 ISO) is also a top projected bat tonight. They can be cheaply paired with Matt Vierling (43 wRC+) and Bradley Zimmer (38 wRC+) as top projected FanDuel values. Vierling also projects as a top DK value, costing the minimum.

Tonight's Top Projected Bat Has Destroyed LHP (276 wRC+, .413 ISO)

The Braves (5.29 implied runs) and Phillies (5.26) are essentially tied atop Monday night’s eight game board with the Twins (5.09) and Dodgers (5.04) reaching five run team totals as well, but no other offense exceeding four and a half runs. Philadelphia is really the only positive run environment on this slate, according to Statcast Park Factors (rolling three years), so perhaps it’s a surprise to see one-quarter of the board reaching five runs. The top projected bat on the board comes from none of those offenses though. Despite the pitcher friendly forecast at Wrigley, Paul Goldschmidt is the top main tonight and the most important thing to know here is that he’s facing a LHP. Not that Drew Smyly has been bad. He has gone away from his cutter (14.4%) and been more fastball heavy (43.4%) since his return from the IL, throwing it and his curveball almost equally, resulting in fewer ground balls (34.3%), but a few more strikeouts (21.7%, 16.8 K-BB%). He’s also been getting a lot of popups (16 in 16 starts) with just an 85.9 mph EV (33.9% 95+ mph EV). Smyly doesn’t have an estimator below four, but only a 4.41 DRA is more than half a run removed from his 3.67 ERA. However, RHBs have a .336 wOBA and .312 xwOBA against him this season and he’ll be facing a predominantly right-handed lineup, led by Goldy’s 276 wRC+ and .413 ISO against southpaws this year. However, players may have a decision to make (at least on DraftKings) because Albert Pujols has also been smoking LHP (225 wRC+, .388 ISO) and costs less than half of what Goldshmidt costs. Pujols is not a top 10 projected bat tonight, but is the top projected DraftKings value. Tyler O’Neill (117 wRC+, .123 ISO) does project as a top 10 overall bat tonight.

We also find a pair of Twins among the top 10 projections. Cole Ragans has struck out just seven of 64 batters (11.4 CStr%, 92.9 Z-Contact%) with eight walks and five barrels (10.2%), despite an 86.1 mph EV. He has generated just 32.7% of his contact on the ground, but with a 25.0 IFFB%. Despite just a 40 Future Value grade (Fangrpahs), Ragans did exceed a 20 K-BB% at both Double and Triple A this year and he’s gotten some usage out of a his changeup (36.5%, -1.8 RV/100, 21.2 Whiff%, wOBA & xwOBA below .300), a pitch the Twins have struggled against this year (-0.06 wCH/C is bottom third of the league). Despite the platoon busting pitch seemingly working well, RHBs have still smoked him for a .375 wOBA and .370 xwOBA so far, so apparently he’s not throwing it often enough. Byron Buxton (155 wRC+, .343 ISO) projects as a top three bat tonight with Carlos Correa (139 wRC+, .165 ISO) also among the top 10.

Ironically, the top two offenses on the board only place a single batter each among the top 10 projected (Ronald Acuna Jr. & Kyle Schwarber, though Rhys Hoskins projects right on the edge of the top 10), but we also find a pair of Dodgers. Eric Lauer’s strikeout rate has risen and fallen with his velocity, both on a roller coaster ride all season long. Most recently, both had been down. Lauer had just a 16.4 K% and 4.9 K-BB% over a five start span going into his last game against the Dodgers, when his velocity spiked and he struck out seven of 26 batters over seven innings (three runs). Who knows what you’re going to get in any given start? On the season, a 3.58 ERA is below estimators all above four, as he’s stranded 81.2% of runners with more than 10% of his runs being unearned. It wasn’t an entirely clean outing against the Dodgers last time out, as they did put a few on the board against him. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .313 and .320 wOBA and xwOBA against him. The Dodgers will test him again tonight with Mookie Betts (176 wRC+, .284 ISO) and Freddie Freeman (125 wRC+, .163 ISO) projecting best.

Matchup Trumps Workload For Tonight's Top Projected Value

This will be just the third home start in his last 10 for Jeffrey Springs, whose only negative attribute as a starter is that he rarely exceeds five innings. He’s struck out 25.9% of batters with a 4.8 BB% and just 17 barrels (7.4%) since his first start. His 2.73 ERA as a starter is a bit below estimators (3.35 FIP/3.19 xFIP), due to an 83.1 LOB%. Despite the light workload, Springs is tonight’s top projected value on either site for $8K or less, due to the negative run environment and great matchup. The Angels have an 82 wRC+ and 24.2 K% vs LHP this season.

After a rough first outing for the Phillies against Washington, Noah Syndergaard has followed up with two straight Quality Starts (13 IP – 5 ER – 1 HR – 2 BB – 10 K – 52 BF) against the Marlins and Reds. The strikeout rate is up to an almost league average 20.9% over his last nine starts and the Phillies have him throwing his slider harder (11.7 SwStr% last start). He’s managed contact well enough all season (87.3 mph EV, 34.7% 95+ mph EV) with great control (5.8 BB%), so any improvement to an 18.3 K%, should push non-FIP estimators ranging from a 4.15 xFIP to a 4.33 xERA below four. The harder slider should have a positive effect against a Cincinnati offense that’s been fifth worst in the league against the pitche this year (-0.55 wSL/C). They also have just an 84 wRC+ and 24.2 K% (17.0 K-BB%) vs RHP this season. Projecting as the fourth best value on either site for $8.5K or less, Syndergaard is probably single pitcher site usable on this board, though perhaps still lacking the upside of more expensive pitchers.

Projecting as the third best DraftKings value ($8.5K), Sonny Gray tied a season high, striking out 10 of 22 Royals last time out and completed six innings for just the third time in 11 starts. His 24.3 K% is still his lowest mark since his Yankee days, while a 44.3 GB% is a career low, though his 7.4 BB% is his lowest since Oakland. The entire package (87.4 mph EV, 5.4% Barrels/BBE) results in estimators ranging from a 3.33 FIP to a 3.69 SIERA, just a bit above his 3.11 ERA. The Rangers have a 24 wRC+ and 23.5 K% vs RHP this season.

Not projecting particularly strongly, after striking out a single Yankee in his first start for St Louis, Jordan Montgomery has struck out 16 of his last 46 batters. One would think that the Cardinals have figured out a way to harness his 13.5 SwStr%, but they’ve actually increased his sinker usage (18.4 Whiff%), which makes some sense, considering their elite defense (17 Runs Prevented). Montgomery is now up to a league average 21.4 K%, pairing it with an elite 4.9 BB% and just 6.3% Barrels/BBE. His 3.29 ERA is a bit below estimators ranging from a 3.48 xFIP to a 4.18 DRA, but it’s not uncommon for Cardinal pitchers to beat their estimators for the reason mentioned. With some potentially pitcher friendly weather at Wrigley tonight, the Cubs have a 98 wRC+ and 24.0 K% vs LHP. Montgomery may be a bit undervalued in this spot. Beyond these four, the lower half of the board is probably not a place you want to spend a lot of time on tonight.

Monday's Top Arm Already Has Seven Shutout Innings Against Tonight's Opponent

We start the week with an eight game Monday night slate featuring three $10K pitchers (two on DraftKings) without any other arms exceeding $9K on both sites. Most expensively and costing more than $1K more than any other pitcher on either site, a string of seven straight Quality Starts for Max Scherzer came to an end last time out against the Braves, tying a season high four runs allowed over six innings. He’s only failed to hit the six inning mark twice (his second start and then by a single out once more). It may be a bit fortunate that just eight of 24 barrels (9.1%) have left the yard, but he’s otherwise only allowing 31.8% of his contact to reach the 95 mph mark, though just 29.6% of it has been on the ground. More importantly, his 26.7 K-BB% remains elite. A 3.27 xFIP is nearly half a run above all other estimators, due to the extreme fly ball lean. The slider is Scherzer’s best offering (-4 RV/100, 49 Whiff%) and even though the Yankees (114 wRC+, 22.3 K%, 14.9 HR/FB vs RHP) are the top offense against that pitch (0.32 wSL/C), they went scoreless against him over seven innings with six strikeouts a little less than a month back. The Yankee offense continues to struggle with a 64 wRC+ and 24.7 K-BB% over the last week. Scherzer is the top projected FanDuel pitcher and essentially tied for the top spot on DraftKings. However, he’s projected as the slightly better value on DraftKings (sixth best) and more a middle of the board value on FanDuel (eighth). There’s also a small chance of delay in this game, something Scherzer also experienced in his last start, though he did come back out again. For more on tonight’s most expensive arms, including a top Scherzer pivot, check out Monday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Sam Haggerty (shoulder) scratched Sunday

Sam Haggerty (shoulder) scratched Sunday

The start of White Sox-Guardians will be delayed Sunday due to rain

Game update: The start of White Sox-Guardians will be delayed Sunday due to rain