DFS Alerts

Projections Show Lots of Value in These Two Lineups

It’s not that there are a lot of high priced pitchers on tonight’s slate. In fact, there are only a few who merit consideration, but the pitchers below them, though graced with some favorable matchups, are almost completely lacking of upside. Considering it’s probably a good idea to pay up for pitching tonight and you probably want to stack Coors offenses, who separate from the rest of the board by quite a bit, then you probably also need some cheaper bats to offset the cost. As was the cast yesterday, FanDuel projections simply suggest that you have to alter your stacks a bit with Dylan Carlson (159 wRC+, .205 ISO vs LHP this year), Albert Pujols (147 wRC+, .215 ISO) and Tyler O’Neill (118 wRC) all not only projecting as top bats tonight, but top values as well, even though the latter costs $3.5K. For less than $3K, Paul DeJong (125 wRC+, .188 ISO) projects as a top value as well. RHBs have a .318 wOBA and .324 xwOBA against Kyle Freeland this year

Yesterday, it was a bit more difficult to stack St Louis bats, but facing a LHP gets some minimally priced right-handed platoon bats in there. The result is that the top three projected values on DraftKings are also Cardinals. Pujols, Lars Nootbaar (68 wRC+, .053 ISO) and Yadier Molina (25 wRC+, .028 ISO) cost no more than $2.1K. Nootbaar is a LHB, but same handed batters have a .391 wOBA and .386 xwOBA against Freeland this year.

The Toronto Blue Jays are the only other offense to feature multiple top 10 projected values and do so only on FanDuel. (A pair of Royals – Vinnie Pasquantino & Nick Pratto – also project as top DraftKings values, but are only 1B eligible.) Dean Kremer’s 3.43 is partially built on home run suppression (7.3 HR/FB) in the now pitcher friendly confines of Baltimore and also a high strand rate (79.6%). Just six of his 16 barrels (8.8%) have left the yard. He’s struck out just 17.8% of batters, though there’s room for more (11.2 SwStr%), along with excellent control (5.7 BB%), but non-FIP estimators area all above four and a half. Kremer’s reverse split (RHBs .356 wOBA, .367 xwOBA) could hurt him here. Alejandro Kirk (148 wRC+, .165 ISO vs RHP this season), Cavan Biggio (109 wRC+, .158 ISO) and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (126 wRC+, .117 ISO) all cost less than $3K.

This Offense Separates from the Board, Dominates Projections

With a team run total even higher than last night, now that they are facing a LHP at Coors tonight, the Cardinals (119 wRC+ vs LHP) top a nine game Wednesday night board at 6.67 implied runs. They are more than a full run ahead of the Rockies (5.33), who exploded for double digit runs last night and now also face a LHP with a predominantly right-handed lineup (102 wRC+ vs LHP). The Dodgers (5.08) are the only other team to reach five runs tonight with five more reaching the four and a half run mark.

St Louis bats, once again, dominate projections and are the only offense with multiple top 10 projected bats tonight. In fact, each of the top four projected bats tonight are Cardinals. Freeland has struck out 20 of his last 75 against three playoff bound National League offenses, including the Dodgers at Coors. Are we going to believe in that guy or the one with a 17.0 K with an ERA and non-FIP estimators above four and a half this year? He’s been a bit fortunate that just 13 of 34 barrels (8.8%) have left the yard too. RHBs have a .318 wOBA and .324 xwOBA against him this year (which really isn’t too bad, considering the first number isn’t park adjusted). Paul Goldschmidt (282 wRC+, .389 ISO vs LHP this year), Nolan Arenado (169 wRC+, .400 ISO), Dylan Carlson (159 wRC+, .205 ISO) and Tyler O’Neill (118 wRC+, .098 ISO) are the top projected bats on the board with Tommy Edman (98 wRC+, .110 ISO) and even Albert Pujols (147 wRC+, .215 ISO) among the top 12 projections on either site. Despite the team run totals exceeding five runs, neither the Rockies (vs Jose Quintana), nor Dodgers (vs Sonny Gray) project a single batter inside the top 10.

Mid-Range Pitchers in Great Matchups Lack Upside

It’s really difficult not to pay up for one of the $11K pitchers on FanDuel because some of the pitchers who project as better values are not arms with a lot of upside, who are really in trouble if they give up a few runs without the strikeouts to support them. It’s more about great matchups for Madison Bumgarner, Noah Syndergaard and Aaron Civale, who are the only pitchers projecting as better values than the top priced arms tonight (though Ryan Pepiot has some weird massive pricing discrepancy between sites going on). Since striking out a season high nine of 29 Nationals three starts back, Bumgarner has struck out just two of 54 Rockies and Braves with four walks. He’s also walked at least three in four of his last seven. Bumgarner has just an 8.5 K-BB% and 90.1 mph EV, resulting in estimators that are all more than two-thirds of a run above his 3.96 ERA, as 10 of his 61 runs have been unearned. He may have some success against Pittsburgh (81 wRC+, 26.2 K% vs LHP) with his cutter (38.3%, 0.5 RV/100), as they’re the second worst offense in baseball against the pitch (-1.47 wFC/C). Bumgarner is the second best projected value on either site for less than $8K and probably makes a better SP2 for $6.9K on DraftKings than a stand-alone arm on FanDuel.

Syndergaard did not fare too well in his Philly debut, allowing more runs (four) than strikeouts (two) against the Nationals. He’s had some fits and starts this year, but in the end, he’s still exhibiting great control (6.1 BB%) with average contact profile, but just hasn’t been able to miss bats the way he used to (18.2 K%). Even his swinging strike rate has dropped to 10.4% (9.4% last nine starts). His 4.02 ERA is below, but within one-third of a run of all non-FIP estimators. It’s certainly not the park that draws projections to him (third best projected value on either site). It’s the price tag (under $8K) and matchup (Marlins 97 wRC+, 22.4 K% vs RHP). That doesn’t look too bad, but they were well above a 100 wRC+ against RHP not too long ago.

Aaron Civale returns from the IL to make his first post-break start. He got through 16 batters in a lone rehab start and shouldn’t be too limited here. A league average 21.7 K% and good control (6.3%), Civale’s issue has been the contact profile this year (90.1 mph EV, 10.1% Barrels/BBE, 12.1 HR/FB). Things had been stabilizing, as he only allowed a home run in one of his last six starts (7.3% Barrels/BBE) with a 3.07 ERA before hitting the IL. However, his first six starts were so bad that he still has a season ERA above six, while estimators range from a 3.94 SIERA to a 4.74 xERA. Again, cost ($6.5K on either site) and matchup (Tigers 67 wRC+, 24.6 K%, 7.1 HR/FB vs RHP) push his projected value near the top of the board.

It had looked like Jose Berrios had gotten something going until he struck out just a single Twin in his big revenge game last time out. It was the first time he’d allowed multiple home runs in seven starts, but he’s still allowed at least one in all but one of those starts and is still getting barreled up pretty regularly (24 home runs on 43 barrels this year). Berrios has a league average 21.1 K% with good control (5.7 BB%), but either seems to put together a gem or get lit up in most of his starts and we can never really predict which way it’ll go. Perhaps the key stat here is that his best pitch is a curveball (-0.7 RV/100, 32.4 Whiff%) that he throws more than any other pitch (32.2%). The Orioles (98 wRC+, 22.2 K%) have been the second best offense in baseball against curveballs this season (0.93 wCU/C), trailing only the Rockies in a stat that is not park adjusted. Berrios is incredibly difficult to trust, but still has upside you probably can’t complete ignore for $7.3K on DraftKings, though you may be able to for nearly $2K more on FanDuel.

Pitchers costing less than $7K, who have been pitching better recently, but are in tough matchups include Dean Kremer (Blue Jays), Glenn Otto (Astros) and Kris Bubic (White Sox 116 wRC+ vs LHP).

This Pitcher Pounds Out Quality Starts with Few Walks & Lots of Popups

A nine game Wednesday night slate features three $10K pitchers on either site, though not necessarily the same three. Most expensively on either site, Justin Verlander has failed to produce a Quality Start just three times in his last 19 outings, while going at least seven innings in seven of his last 11. He’s doing amazing things for a nearly 40 year-old pitcher, but his 1.73 ERA is well below estimators ranging from a 2.96 xERA to a 3.43 xFIP. The reasons for this are a .229 BABIP, 83.5 LOB% and eight unearned runs. His 25.5 K% is more good than great, while the 4.6 BB% and 30 infield flies are more impressive. The Rangers represent a favorable matchup with a 94 wRC+ and 23.4 K% vs RHP this season. Verlander is the clear top projected arm on the slate and also the top projected value on DraftKings, which is sure to make him immensely popular, though just the fifth best projected FanDuel value for $800 more. For more on tonight’s top of the board pitching, including the top Verlander pivot and the high priced pitcher who projects as one of the worst values on one site, but the best on another, check out Wednesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

The start of Marlins-Phillies will be delayed Tuesday due to inclement weather

Game update: The start of Marlins-Phillies will be delayed Tuesday due to inclement weather

The start of Reds-Mets will be delayed Tuesday due to inclement weather

Game update: The start of Reds-Mets will be delayed Tuesday due to inclement weather

St Louis Stacks Project to be Popular, but Not Overwhelmingly So

On a large 14 game slate loaded with pitching, St Louis stacks project for double digit ownership on FanDuel because they are at Coors, separating themselves by half a run from the rest of the board and are fairly easy to stack along with a $10K pitcher there. They’re a few points behind FanDuel projections, but are still projected to be the most popular stack on DraftKings, where it’s a bit more difficult, but players can still get there with a mid-range SP2. The Cardinals do project to smash the slate significantly more than any other stack, not quite twice as often as the Blue Jays with the second best Smash%, but with a significant gap. Ryan Feltner hasn’t been bad (14.8 K-BB%, 7.7% Barrels/BBE), but it’s Coors and the Cardinal bats have been smoking (140 wRC+ last seven days, 107 wRC+ vs RHP this year). There is a sizeable log jam at the top of the Value% column on FanDuel with the Cardinals being one of the stacks near the top, along with the Phillies, Guardians and Cubs. DraftKings projections see Cincinnati stacks having the most value by a decent amount, though they do face a tough pitcher (Carlos Carrasco) in a tough park (Citi Field) and they did lose three guys (Kyle Farmer, Mike Moustakas, Jonathan India) from their original lineup yesterday. As always, remember that stacking projections are fluid and updated throughout the day, which can significantly alter Leverage Ratings, but to see where they’re currently at, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Projections See Lots of Value in Pair of NL Central Lineups

How can you possibly pay up for one of the many $10K pitchers tonight and stack the Cards at Coors as well? Well, FanDuel makes it easy, as three of the top 10 projected values are Cardinals, two of them (Dylan Carlson & Nolan Gorman) among the top 10 projected overall as well. Neither costs more than $3.2K against Ryan Feltner, who has been fine (14.8 K-BB%, 7.7% Barrels/BBE), but it is Coors and LHBs have a .396 wOBA and .383 xwOBA against him. Gorman (118 wRC+, .220 ISO vs RHP this season) and Carlson (88 wRC+, .146 ISO) are joined by Paul DeJong (57 wRC+, .174 ISO) as a top projected value tonight for $2.7K. DraftKings makes it a bit harder to stack St Louis with Lars Nootbaar (105 wRC+, .173 ISO) and Yadier Molina (49 wRC+) the only top 10 projected values for less than $2.5K each.

Despite the pitcher friendly weather expected at Wrigley tonight, the Cubs have a 4.41 run team total that sits in the top half of the board tonight and Paolo Espino has struck out just 17.2% with 9.4% Barrels/BBE as a starter and has allowed multiple home runs in five of his last seven. Rafael Ortega (93 wRC+) is the top projected value for FanDuel tonight ($2.2K), as well as a top five projected DraftKings value ($2.5K). Espino actually has a reverse split (LHBs .297 wOBA, .325 xwOBA – RHBs .369 wOBA, .346 xwOBA), though Statcast significantly narrows the gap. Ian Happ (112 wRC+, .158 ISO) is also a top projected FanDuel value for $2.8K.

While no other lineup features multiple top 10 projected values, we have to look at the spot in Arizona. Zack Thompson has two Quality Starts this season, against Miami and Cincinnati, and failed to strike out more batters than he walked in either. He has just a 7.1 K-BB% without an estimator below four and a half, although 16 of his 20 barrels (7.1%) have left the yard. Arizona has a 4.71 run team total, while LHBs have a wOBA and xwOBA within two points of .325 against Thompson this year. The Arizona projected lineup does not feature a batter above $3.4K on FanDuel, while Daulton Varsho (124 wRC+, .232 ISO) and Alek Thomas (117 wRC+, .188 ISO) are each $4.1K or less on DraftKings. Christian Walker (91 wRC+, .235 ISO) costs only $3.7K and Thompson has been even worse against RHBs (.358 wOBA, .368 xwOBA).

A Scorching Offense in a Great Park

The Cardinals have a team 140 wRC+ over the last week and 107 wRC+ vs RHP this year. They head to Coors off of a series bludgeoning of quality Yankee pitching with a board topping 6.23 implied run line. The Mets are nearly a half run below yesterday (5.65), but this may be more due to the weather being not as hitter friendly because Mike Minor hasn’t been much better than Justin Dunn. The Atlanta Braves (5.23) are the only other team above five implied runs, as they travel to Fenway, which is projected to have some hitter friendly weather, against Rich Hill. Five more teams exceed four and a half run team totals on a 14 game loaded pitching board.

The top three projected bats on the board and five of the top eight are Cardinals tonight. Ryan Feltner has a nearly league average strikeout rate (20.8%), 14.8 K-BB% and has only allowed 7.7% Barrels/BBE. However, 46.9% of his contact has had at least a 95 mph EV, which aligns his 5.75 ERA with a 5.60 xERA. All other estimators are more than a run lower (.331 BABIP, 67.0 LOB%, 16.3 HR/FB). Seven of his 10 barrels have left the yard, so it is a bit of an outlier to see his xERA so much higher than his FIP (4.52) in this situation. He really hasn’t been bad, but it’s Coors and the Cardinals are a good offense, so it is what it is. Paul Goldshmidt (166 wRC+, .257 ISO vs RHP this year), Tyler O’Neill (80 wRC+, .131 ISO) and Nolan Arenado (155 wRC+, .219 ISO) are the top projected bats on the board. RHBs have a .320 wOBA and .340 xwOBA against Feltner, but LHBs are even better (.396 wOBA, .383 xwOBA). Nolan Gorman (118 wRC+, .220 ISO) and Dylan Carlson (88 wRC+, .146 ISO) are top 10 projected bats as well.

Unfortunately, no other offense features multiple top 10 projected bats with the Cardinals dominating a large field. The Mets and Braves only place a single batter each on this list with Pete Alonso (162 wRC+, .266 ISO vs LHP this year) facing a lefty who has surrendered a .435 wOBA and .381 xwOBA to RHBs this year and Ronald Acuna (142 wRC+, .191 ISO) facing a slightly better one (.345 wOBA, .342 xwOBA), but under more hitter friendly conditions in a much more hitter friendly park.

The Mid-to-Low Range Arms to Pair with Top Pitchers + One Who Can Stand Alone

If you were to look at tonight’s board with a ton of $10K arms and believe it were loaded with pitching, you’d be correct. If you were to think that the pitchers worth considering stopped at $9K or $10K though, you’d be wrong because there are several mid-range arms with strong qualities as well. The top projected value for less than $10K on FanDuel is Carlos Carrasco ($9.4K). With just six runs allowed over his last 36 innings, his 3.82 ERA now more closely aligns with estimators ranging from a 3.45 FIP to a 4.02 xERA. The strikeout rate is a bit low for his usual standards (23.3%), but he still owns a more than respectable 17.0 K-BB% (and he’s the team’s fourth starter). He’s gone at least six innings in three of his last four. The weather isn’t expected to affect this pitcher friendly environment nearly as much as yesterday, while not only do the Reds have a 76 wRC+ (8.3 HR/FB) away from home and 85 wRC+ (24.2 K%) vs RHP, but each of Kyle Farmer, Jonathan India and Mike Moustakas were either scratched or left the game early with injuries last night, though all three are projected to be back in there tonight. Carrasco is the fourth best projected DraftKings value for $1.2K less, but the top projected value in the $6K to $9K range.

Some of the additional arms projecting as top 10 FanDuel values are probably not guys you’re considering using on a single pitcher site, at least not tonight. Marcus Stroman would usually be fine with pitcher friendly conditions at Wrigley against the Nationals, but he can’t compete with the upside of the top of the board tonight. Braxton Garrett has shown some upside, striking out 37 of his last 93 batters with a 13.1 SwStr%, but all four of those starts were against either the Red or Pirates, while he has a much tougher matchup in a much tougher park in Philly tonight (113 wRC+, 21.4 K%, 12.6 HR/FB vs LHP). The Phillies are also the hottest offense in baseball over the last week (159 wRC+). Either are find in your SP2 spot on DraftKings for $7.5K or less.

Tommy Henry walked and struck out three Guardians each in his major league debut, but faces a much less disciplined lineup this time out. Fangraphs ranks the nearly 26 year-old pitcher the 20th best prospect in the Arizona system with a 40 Future Value grade. He produced a 12.3 K-BB% over 20 AAA starts this season. James Kaprielian has allowed 10 runs over his last 38.2 innings, despite just a 5.2 K-BB% over this span (.212 BABIP, 82.1 LOB%, 4.2 HR/FB). Just two of 10 barrels have left the park over this span and you can’t even blame Oakland because he’s only had two home starts. Kaprielian has struck out more than four in just one his last 13 starts, while a 4.81 xERA is his only estimator below five on the season, despite 9.5% Barrels/BBE. However, both project as top three values and potential SP2 punts in great matchups for less than $6K on DK tonight. Henry hosts the Pirates (82 wRC+, 26.5 K% vs LHP) and Kaprielian hosts the Angels (96 wRC+, 26.9 K% vs RHP). Those are the two highest strikeout splits on the board.

Alex Cobb almost has his ERA below four. A 17.9 K-BB%, 62.2 GB%, 28.6 Z-O-Swing%, 3.6% Barrels/BBE and 34.5% mph EV suggest it should be somewhere around three. His worst estimator is a 3.16 DRA. However, a .324 BABIP and 60.6 LOB% have different ideas. Would you be shocked to find out there are another 10 unearned runs on top of the 40 earned ones as well? Twenty years ago, they would have thought he was having a bad season. Cobb is also pitching deeper into games after putting a couple of early season injuries behind him. He has Quality Starts in five of his last six. The Padres are better than their 99 wRC+ (22.0 K%, 9.5 HR/FB) vs RHP this year (though they’ve not been showing it), but Cobb may still be too cheap for $7K on DK ($1K more on FD).

Jose Urqudiy has a 23.5 K% over his last six starts, which includes at least eight strikeouts three times, but a total of eight in his other three combined. He has just a 19.0 K% on the season. With a below average strikeout rate and poor contact profile (90.2 mph EV, 9.6% Barrels/BBE), a 5.1 BB% is his lone positive attribute. Urquidy’s 3.62 ERA is more than half a run below all estimators (78.2 LOB%), but he does pitch in front of the top defense in the league (24 Runs Prevented). Urquidy likes to throw his four-seamer often (54.9%) and it’s his best pitch (-1.1 RV/100). The Rangers (93 wRC+, 23.4 K% vs RHP) are also one of the worst offenses in the league against fastballs (-0.28 wFB/C). He, too, is a fine SP2 in the $7K range.

Lastly, we hate the matchup (Blue Jays 115 wRC+, 22.1 K%, 13.7 HR/FB vs RHP) and contact profile (11 home runs and 11.7% Barrels/BBE through 10 starts), but Kyle Bradish costs less than $6K in a now pitcher friendly park with a 22.8 K% and no barrels in two starts since returning. This may be another punt worthy SP2 if necessary.

This Pitcher Tops a Loaded Pitching Board

An astounding eight pitchers reach the $10K price point on FanDuel on a 14 game Tuesday night slate. A bit of elementary school math puts that at more than one-quarter of the board. Three of those pitchers reach $10K on DraftKings. Shohei Ohtani struck out just seven of 25 A’s in his last start, snapping a streak of six straight with double digit strikeouts. He also failed to complete six innings for only the third time in 14 starts. Maybe they have his number. It was only the fifth time he’s allowed more than two runs this season (although only two were earned). Ohtani’s been fantastic. His K-BB exceeds 30% and his 2.83 ERA is at least a quarter of a run above all estimators, while the A’s have a 76 wRC+ (7.5 HR/FB) at home and 79 wRC+ (23.8 K%) vs RHP. It took Ohtani’s consecutive double digit strikeout streak being snapped for DraftKings to finally push his price tag not only above $9K, but right through $10K as well. He’s the second most expensive DK arm, but most expensive on FanDuel. Ohtani is the top projected DraftKings pitcher and second on FanDuel, but with less than a point separating the top two spots on either site. Ohtani is also a top five projected value on either site in this tremendous matchup. Which other pitchers project in line with Ohtani on a loaded pitching board tonight? Check out Tuesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog to find out.

Kyle Farmer (neck) scratched Monday.

Kyle Farmer (neck) scratched Monday.

The Stack Projected to be More Popular than the Mets Tonight

On just a seven game slate with the Mets almost a full run ahead of the rest of the board, it may be a bit of a surprise that they don’t reach 20% projected stacking ownership (although projections are fluid and updated throughout the day). In fact, they’re not even the stack projected for the highest ownership right on FanDuel currently. That honor belongs to the Blue Jays, although there isn’t much separation in terms of Own% between the two on either site. The Mets do smash the slate in around 20% of simulations, which is around 25 to 33% more often than the Blue Jays. While the Nationals are the top projected value stack against the volatile Keegan Thompson (more strikeouts than walks in only half of his 14 starts), their projected DraftKings Value% not only doubles that of the second best projected value DK stack (Oakland), but also their own board topping FanDuel projected Value%. To find out which stacks project as the best pivots from the Mets or Blue Jays, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Lots of Projected Value in This Game, Despite Wind Blowing In

You may not need a lot of value bats in your lineup tonight without much in the way of high priced pitching. In fact, many of the bats the top the board in overall projections are also top projected values on FanDuel as well. Still, we’re going to throw a bunch of them at you here because daily fantasy baseball writers need to get paid. Daniel Vogelbach (160 wRC+, .268 ISO vs RHP this season), Brandon Nimmo (126 wRC+, .145 ISO) and Tyler Naquin (131 wRC+, .238 ISO) all double as top projected bats and Fanduel vales all costing within $200 of $3K. Luis Guillorme (124 wRC+) is also a top projected value for $2.2K. LHBs have a .351 wOBA against Justin Dunn in his short career.

While no Met projects as a top 10 DraftKings value, the Chicago Cubs are the only offense to list multiple top 10 projected values on both sites tonight. Anibal Sanchez has an ERA and FIP above seven over four starts. The truth is that he’s allowed six home runs, but just four barrels (6.3%). Even with the decent contact profile, he’s only struck out 15 of the 88 batters he’s faced with nine walks (6.8 K-BB%). A 3.80 xERA and 4.71 DRA are his only estimators below five. It’s also a “wind blowing in day” at Wrigley, which may negatively affect offense, though the sample size on Weather Edge is currently only 39 games. Sanchez has been a bit of a reverse platoon pitcher throughout his career and he’s off to a similar start this year (RHBs .447 wOBA, .333 xwOBA – LHBs .317 wOBA, .280 xwOBA). However, it’s cheap left-handed bats that stand out here. Rafael Ortega (95 wRC+) is a top three projected value on either site for $2.6K or less. Zach McKinstry (4 wRC+) costs the minimum on DraftKings and Ian Happ (112 wRC+, .157 ISO) is less than $3K on FanDuel.

A pair of Washington bats on the opposing side at Wrigley also project as top DraftKings values against Keegan Thompson, who’s been entirely feast or famine, failing to strike out more than he’s walked in seven of his 14 starts, but the last five times he’s struck out more batters than he’s walked, he’s struck out at least seven with a total of four walks. Batters from either side of the plate are within a .306 to .335 wOBA and xwOBA against Thompson this season. Yadiel Hernandez (104 wRC+, .160 ISO) and Victor Robles (48 wRC+) each cost less than $2.5K on DK.

Lastly, we find a pair of min-priced Orioles as top projected values against the very walk (13.0%) and barrel (15.3%) prone Yusei Kikuchi, even though Baltimore now greatly suppresses right-handed power. RHBs have a .379 wOBA and .366 xwOBA against him this year. Tyler Nevin (110 wRC+, .138 ISO) and Ryan McKenna (162 wRC+, .265 ISO) are your top projected Baltimore values.

Everything Sets Up For This Offense to Dominate the Slate

We only have seven games on a Monday night slate that doesn’t include Coors or really any other significantly positive run environment, yet we do have the New York Mets at a full six implied runs facing the Reds in the normally negative run environment of Citi Field. Part of that is some hitter friendly weather tonight, which may make the park play neutrally or even better (check Weather Edge for updates). Another is the season and team debut of Justin Dunn (5.2 K-BB% over 102.2 career innings). His seven starts for the Reds at AAA include 26 innings of a 5.4 K-BB%. The Mets also have a 119 wRC+ at home, 117 wRC+ vs RHP and 146 wRC+ over the last seven days after bludgeoning Atlanta pitching over the weekend. Nearly a full run separates the Mets from the Blue Jays at 5.06 implied runs. One thing to watch there is that Jordan Lyles has allowed just a single one of his 16 home runs at home this year. Players really need to grasp how much more pitcher friendly Baltimore is playing this year, though this powerful Toronto offense (115 wRC+, 21.2 K%, 13.7 HR/FB vs RHP) can punish pitching in any park. Arizona is just under five runs (4.97), while the Cubs (4.67) are the only other offense with a team run total above four and a half tonight.

It should be absolutely no surprise that Mets’ bats dominate PlateIQ projections tonight. Four of the top five and six of the top 10 projected bats are Mets tonight. The biggest surprise may be that Pete Alonso is not among the first group. Francisco Lindor (141 wRC+, .203 ISO vs RHP this year), Daniel Vogelbach (160 wRC+, .268 ISO), Starling Marte (117 wRC+, .142 ISO) and Brandon Nimmo (126 wRC+, .145 ISO) all project among the top five bats tonight. Alonso (150 wRC+, .269 ISO) is a bit lower, while Tyler Naquin (131 wRC+, .238 ISO) sits on the edge of the top 10 tonight. In fact, James McCann is the only batter in the projected lineup below a 117 wRC+ vs RHP this season. Dunn does have about a 100 point wOBA split (LHBs .351, RHBs .255) during his short career.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (144 wRC+, .226 ISO) is actually the top projected bat on the board tonight. Half of Jordan Lyles’ last 18 starts have been Quality Starts (4.21 ERA/3.99 FIP/4.42 xFIP). The Orioles are content to conserve younger arms by letting him throw a ton of innings and he hasn’t been terrible (11.5 K-BB%), while the new dimensions in Baltimore have somewhat saved him from 10.6% Barrels/BBE. The proof is in a 4.40 ERA aligning perfectly with a 4.40 SIERA, well below his 5.03 xERA, but above his 4.24 FIP (10.2% HR/FB). Just 16 of his 42 barrels have turned into home runs. As mentioned, he’s allowed just a single home run at home this year. RHBs are still within three points of a .320 wOBA and xwOBA against him. Alejandro Kirk (145 wRC+, .171 ISO) also projects as a top 10 bat with Teoscar Hernandez (122 wRC+, .198 ISO) just on the edge of that list. Whit Merrifield is the only projected Toronto bat below a 105 wRC+ vs RHP.