DFS Alerts
Cheap Dodger RHBs provide a path to Corey Kluber on FanDuel
Cheap Dodger bats (at least on FanDuel) may help provide a path to Corey Kluber. Kike Hernandez (153 wRC+, .376 ISO vs LHP this year) and Austin Barnes (133 wRC+, .275 ISO vs LHP) each have a massive difference in cost between DraftKings and FanDuel, where both are just a bit above the minimum. Sean Newcomb has been just average against RHBs (.314 wOBA, 30.9 Hard%) with some major control issues as of late. Jim Adduci (104 wRC+, .164 ISO vs RHP) bats second against Chris Tillman and costs less than $3K on either site. Jesse Winker (244 wRC+, 57.1 Hard%) is another great cheap play on either site out of the two hole also against Chad Kuhl (LHBs .374 wOBA, 36.8 Hard% since last season). Logan Forsythe (153 wRC+, .177 ISO vs LHP) and Max Kepler (121 wRC+, .201 ISO vs RHP) are both right around or below $3K on either site.
Other tagged players: Austin Barnes, Jim Adduci, Jesse Winker, Logan Forsythe, Max Kepler
Boston bats, Corey Kluber top the projected ownership board tonight
While the top Boston bats (Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi) are expected to be most popular tonight, Baltimore and Houston bats are expected to be well represented as well tonight. Of interest tonight is that even though Joey Votto is a top projected batter on the slate, ownership projects believe he may be minimally owned (5% or less on either site currently). On the mound, Corey Kluber is the most stable arm and expected to get the most play (especially with Aaron Judge out of the lineup), but Trevor Cahill and Alex Wood are expected to get some play too, though both have struggled of late and Wood’s DraftKings price (more expensive than Kluber) may warrant caution. Ownership projections are updated throughout the day and are available to premium subscribers on the Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Andrew Benintendi, Corey Kluber, Joey Votto, Alex Wood, Trevor Cahill Several games with some rain potential in Kevin's evening update.
The biggest concern in the evening forecast is in Minnesota (vs Texas). It’s wet, cold and windy. Kevin is giving it an ORANGE/YELLOW for now. The good news is that players likely aren’t interested in this game’s pitchers. The concern is that hitters are at some risk too. Detroit Baltimore is at risk for a delay or late start (YELLOW). New York (AL) Cleveland and Los Angeles (NL) Atlanta are less likely to see a delay and that's the big news considering the quality of pitching elsewhere tonight. Players can read the full report on the Weather page and be sure to follow Kevin on Twitter (KevinRothWx) for further updates.
Matt Boyd elevated pitches in July, Jonathan Schoop top Baltimore bat vs elevated pitches this year
Using PlateIQ to break down the best Baltimore matchups against Matt Boyd, you might notice that he doesn’t really have a favored area in which he likes to pitch RHBs, but switching to just the last month shows that he elevated everything with very few pitches (in or out of the strike zone) below the middle zone. Looking at Baltimore batters for the season, Jonathan Schoop has been the only one who has handled pitches up in the zone well. The rest of the lineup are primarily low ball hitters. While Boyd throws a slider, he does so less than 5% of the time to RHBs this year, utilizing an arsenal of fastballs (four-seam and sinkers), changes and curves. Over the last two seasons, Schoop has handled these pitches fairly well and is at least above average against both secondary offerings according to Hit%. In fact, it’s hard to say the same for the rest of the Baltimore lineup. While Baltimore is currently implied for the second highest run line tonight (5.56) and they may well get there in a park that’s unfriendly to contact in the air, Jonathan Schoop looks like the one strong play in this lineup.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: Matthew Boyd Ty Black has just an 11.8 K%, but an 85.1 mph aEV (31.1% 95+ mph EV).
Just because a pitcher is not a useful daily fantasy asset doesn’t necessarily mean we should always attack him. Some pitchers are effective contact managers who have issues with either their strikeout and/or walk rates which destroy their daily fantasy value. Ty Blach may be one such pitcher tonight. He has just an 11.8 K% and 4.38 ERA, but what his 5.08 SIERA does not take into account is his 85.1 mph aEV (31.1% 95+ mph EV), which has resulted in barrels on just 4.6% of his batted balls. That he allows harder contact to LH batters (31.3% to 28.3% for RHBs) in a cavernous park in San Francisco doesn’t exactly hurt him either. This has allowed him to keep batters from either side under a .330 wOBA in his career so far. Another pitcher with a smaller sample size (five starts), who may be difficult to assess in a daily fantasy setting is Cincinnati’s Sal Romano. RHBs have a .397 wOBA, but with just a 24.2 Hard% and 60% ground ball rate. He’s walked 17.3% of them (1.9 K-BB%). He has an 84 mph aEV overall, but RHBs have a 35.7 Hard%. Essentially, players are looking for RHBs to walk or find a hole with the LHBs driving them in if stacking Pirates. On the opposite end of the spectrum, premium subscribers have access to the Trendspotting article, which looks at batters and pitchers that match up for the most hard contact on a given slate.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Trendspotting Other tagged players: Sal Romano Baltimore finds a pair (Machado & Schoop) among top projected batters tonight
Rather than trending towards a particular team, the RotoGrinders Player Projections project the best hitters in the league to have the biggest night tonight. The projected leaderboard is capped off by perennial MVP candidates Jose Altuve, Mike Trout, Mookie Betts and Joey Votto before landing on a couple of Baltimore bats in Manny Machado and Jonathan Schoop against Matt Boyd. Boyd has allowed at least three ERs in each of his last 10 starts, though more than four only once. He did have a double digit SwStr% in all three July starts though. His contact profile has improved too this year with a career high 42.4 GB% and an 86.5 mph aEV with just 30.4% of contact above a 95 mph exit velocity. Andrew Benintendi checks in at seventh on the DraftKings projections, giving the top Vegas projected offense tonight a pair in the top 10 on that site. Benintendi doubles as a potential top value on DraftKings at 2.52 Pt/$/K. Among those projected for at least eight DK points, only Yulieski Gurriel (2.54 Pt/$/K) projects for more value. On FanDuel, Mike Napoli projects as a top value (3.74 Pt/$/K) against lefty Adalberto Mejia in cold and potentially very wet Minnesota. Evan Gattis (3.57 Pt/$/K) is another option against Blake Snell.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Jonathan Schoop, Jose Altuve, Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, Joey Votto, Andrew Benintendi, Mike Napoli, Evan Gattis Corey Kluber has 10 or more strikeouts in 10 of his last 13 starts
Alex Wood may slightly eclipse Corey Kluber in tonight’s RotoGrinders Player Projections, but that’s likely due to a matchup edge and there is some reason for caustion (though not yet concern) in Wood’s recent profile. Kluber is the only legitimate threat to Chris Sale’s 2017 Cy Young award. His 29.8 K-BB% trails only Sale in the majors. He’s struck out at least 10 in 10 of his last 13 starts and has failed to go at least six innings just twice all season. The Yankees have a 113 wRC+ and Cleveland is actually a more run friendly environment than Yankee Stadium even if it’s not as power friendly. The big guy has cooled down a bit since the break though and the Yankees have just a 93 wRC+ over the last week. Kluber is matchup proof anyway. Weather may be the only thing that can stop him tonight. Wood followed up a disastrous start against these same Braves with a four run, seven inning effort with five strikeouts in which his GB rate was below 50% for the second straight start and third time in four starts or since April. It’s possible he’s tiring and the evidence may be in dropping velocity throughout the month of July after being up over a mile per hour from last year. He still has a -8.4 Hard-Soft% in July and is a quality contact manager against an offense lacking any RH power without Matt Kemp. He actually costs more than Kluber on DraftKings though. Trevor Cahill is the third best projected pitcher tonight and pitches his first game in his new home sporting a career high 26.2 K% with a 56.7 GB% and 85.1 mph aEV (27.2% 95+ mph EV). However, his last start for San Diego and first for Kansas City were both stinkers in which he walked six and struck out three combined. The good news is that those starts were against contact prone offenses (Giants, Red Sox), but that still doesn’t excuse a sub-six SwStr% each time out. The hope is he fares better against the Mariners on a thin slate. Rick Porcello may be another option. He carries just a league average strikeout rate with too much hard contact, but faces an ailing White Sox lineup that has struggled against RHP all year. Sonny Gray (23.5 K%, 12.1 SwStr%, 3.43 ERA, 3.70 SIERA) would look more enticing if he weren’t making his first Yankee start in Cleveland. He has weather and an opposing offense with a 112 wRC+ at home to worry about. The other option might be Collin McHugh if all else fails. He threw six quality innings at Detroit, striking out seven in his second start of the season. Contact has been a bit of a concern with just a 21.4 GB% so far, especially against a powerful Tampa Bay offense (18 HR/FB vs RHP), but it’s a high upside spot with the Rays striking out in a quarter of plate appearances against RHP.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Alex Wood, Trevor Cahill, Rick Porcello, Sonny Gray, Collin McHugh Trevor Cahill has a .389 BABIP over his last five starts despite a 27.3% HH%
Trevor Cahill is set to make his sixth start since being activated from the disabled list and second as a member of the Kansas City Royals rotation tonight against the Seattle Mariners after two consecutive rough outings against the San Francisco Giants and Boston Red Sox, allowing five earned runs and failing to make it past the fourth inning in each start. With that said, since his return from injury, Cahill has still remained one of the several pitchers this season that had seen a drastic increase in his strikeout rate over his typical career numbers, evidenced by his measly 17.2% career punch out rate. However, through 12 starts in 2017, his strikeout rate is all the way up to 26.2% and is even supported by a 12.1% swinging strike rate, meaning that this newfound strikeout ability is more than sustainable if he is able to continue inducing that many swings and misses in or around the strike zone. Even if those numbers regress a small amount following the stint on the disabled list, Cahill would still find himself in the category of pitchers with elite strikeout ability. In addition to the increased strikeouts, Cahill has managed to induce groundballs at a 56.7% clip, which is something he has always been able to do well but is extra impressive considering he isn’t sacrificing any of his groundball ability to inflate the strikeout numbers. He also will receive the added benefit of squaring off with a Mariners lineup Thursday night that is nothing special against right-handed pitching, ranking 16th in wOBA (.321) and 20th in ISO (.160), while striking out 21.4% of the time, good enough to land in the middle of the pack among MLB but absolutely remains exploitable. Additionally, the Mariners draw walks at a below-average 7.7% rate that should allow Cahill keep his occasional control issues in check (9.2% BB%) and pitch his way to a solid enough outing to pay off his affordable salary on DraftKings even without what would be considered substantial strikeout upside in this matchup.
As reported by: FanGraphs
Logan Morrison had four HRs (104.9 mph aEV, seven BBEs) against Collin McHugh before this year
Collin McHugh has only pitched in two games in a year in which Logan Morrison has had a breakout, so it’s a bit of surprise that none of his four HRs against McHugh have come this season. Over the past two years, his seven BBEs have a 104.9 mph aEV. It would lend one to think he’s in a good spot tonight, but Lucas Duda is also red hot, so players will have a decision to make if they like a Tampa Bay first baseman tonight. Jason Castro also has four HRs against A.J. Griffin (18 PAs) with a 98.2 mph aEV on eight BBEs. While Griffiin is an extreme fly ball pitcher, Castro generally bats at the bottom of the order and weather conditions are expected to be awful in Minnesota tonight. Hanley Ramirez also has a pair of HRs in 11 PAs against Miguel Gonzalez with a 103.7 mph aEV on eight BBEs. First Base is very crowded tonight. The Red Sox also have dual first base threats and the highest projected run line tonight. Brandon Guyer is unlikely to play against Sonny Gray, unless Francona uses BvP to build his lineup. Guyer has two HRs and a 96.4 mph aEV on seven BBEs against Gray. Mookie Betts is one of two batters with at least 10 Statcast recorded BBEs against tonight’s opposing pitcher and the only one with an aEV above 90 mph (92.3 mph), but he has only one HR with no extra-base hits in 20 PAs against Gonzalez.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Matchups Other tagged players: Lucas Duda, Collin McHugh, Jason Castro, A.J. Griffin, Hanley Ramirez, Miguel Gonzalez, Mookie Betts, Brandon Guyer, Sonny Gray Andrew McCutchen has a slate leading 352 wRC+ with four HRs over the last week
Andrew McCutchen will not slow down. He now has a 352 wRC+ over the last week (10 PA min.), the highest on the slate, with a 38.5 Hard% and four HRs. His home park is supposed to suppress RH power, but he’s having none of it right now. Tonight’s opponent is Sal Romano. RHBs have a .397 wOBA against him, but with a 60% ground ball rate and 0.0 Hard-Soft%. It’s all in the 17.3 BB%. Christian Vazquez (342 wRC+, 41.2 Hard%, one HR) and Eduardo Nunez (293 wRC+, 50 Hard%, two HRs) are part of the highest projected offense by Vegas (6.12 runs) against Miguel Gonzalez (RHBs .315 wOBA since 2016). Lucas Duda (273 wRC+, 41.7 Hard%, three HRs) has found the American League to his liking. He gets Collin McHugh (LHBs .345 wOBA since last season) in Houston. No other batter has a wRC+ above 250 over the last seven days, but Chase Headley has just a 185 wRC+ and one HR on an 80% hard hit rate in 26 PAs. Brandon Belt and Jordy Mercer are at or just above 70% as well.
Other tagged players: Christian Vazquez, Eduardo Nunez, Lucas Duda, Chase Headley, Brandon Belt, Jordy Mercer Boston (6.12 implied runs) leads a 10 game slate with 10 teams projected for 4.8 runs or more
Boston is projected for a slate leading 6.12 runs against Miguel Gonzalez tonight. Gonzalez had a 2.33 ERA in July, but with just a 14.4 K%, 18.0 Hard-Soft% and non-FIP estimators above five. Even his FIP was 3.93 without allowing a single HR in the month. The Red Sox are suddenly the hottest team on the slate (128 wRC+ over the last week), but that’s more a product of just making contact than an increase in power. Their 10 HR/FB over this span is the same as their mark against RHP this year. Eduardo Nunez has been the lead bat with a 293 wRC+, 50 Hard%, two HRs over the last seven days. Hanley Ramirez has a pair of HRs against Gonzalez with a 103.7 mph aEV on eight BBEs. While a projection above six runs might be aggressive, we should certainly expect the Red Sox to score some runs tonight. Nine more teams have an implied run line between 4.8 and 5.6 tonight, making it half of a 20 team slate above that mark tonight. Third Base looks like a particularly strong position tonight. Along with Nunez, Justin Turner faces a lefty in Atlanta (223 wRC+, .347 ISO vs LHP this year) and Manny Machado (162 wRC+ last seven days) goes against Matt Boyd (RHBs .351 wOBA, 35.5 Hard% since last season) at home. Joey Votto (163 wRC+, .255 ISO vs RHP since 2016) may be the top overall matchup on the slate against Chad Kuhl (LHBs .374 wOBA, 36.8 Hard% since 2016) with Jesse Winker (244 wRC+, 57.1 Hard% last seven days) a top value play if near the top of the lineup again. Cincinnati is implied for just 3.96 runs, but their LHBs may have the top matchup on the board.
Other tagged players: Hanley Ramirez, Justin Turner, Manny Machado, Joey Votto, Jesse Winker, Miguel Gonzalez ARI-CHC game will be delayed due to weather Thursday
A new storm cell formed moments ago, which will cause Thursday’s game to be delayed. An updated start time has not been made available, but Kevin Roth reports the storms are moving fast. Generally, that’s helpful when it comes to PPD risk, although the chance of a postponement occurring slightly increases with this new cell moving through the area. This game’s risk has been increased to ORANGE.
As reported by: Mark Gonzales
Uncertainty remains for ARI-CHC game Thursday afternoon (ORANGE/YELLOW)
A storm has popped up west of Wrigley Field but it could get past the stadium by first pitch. No other storms have popped up on radar yet, however, models are predicting a few more in the area this afternoon. The game remains the same level of risk as the initial forecast (ORANGE/YELLOW) and Roth believes that hitters should be fine. Greinke and Quintana, the top two pitchers on the slate, are more risky though, as there’s a legitimate chance we’ll see an in-game delay.
Rafael Montero allowing .391 wOBA to RHB this season
Although he’s only giving up 29.4% Hard%, he has a low 17.4% Soft%, which has helped keep his BABIP elevated to .391. If we include his 2016 numbers, which brings his sample size to 197 RHB faced, his wOBA (.382) and BABIP (.345) are still high while his Soft% (16.4%) remains low. While his career BABIP is .321 against 324 RHB faced since 2014, this season is the only time it’s been above .286. This is a good indication there’s some element of bad luck in his performance this year. Furthering that argument, his 4.70 SIERA is a full run lower than his 5.72 ERA. Even so, with the Mets playing in Coors field today, Vegas has provided the Rockies a projected run total of 6.43, which leads the early slate by a mile. Arenado (.370 wOBA, .274 ISO vs. RHP this season), Reynolds (.353 wOBA, .204 ISO), and Story (.326 wOBA, .225 ISO) stand out as some solid righty bats to target this afternoon. Although Montero has limited LHB to .319 wOBA this year, he’s struggled to get them out over the course of his career. In addition to posting a career .381 wOBA vs LHB, he’s also produced a .360 BABIP, exceeding .300 in each season he’s put in time in the bigs. It’s somewhat odd considering his career 27.1% Hard% and 24.4% Hard% this season, but he has a career 18.8% Soft% and 36.8% GB%. This season, he’s shown marked improvement in ground balls, raising his rate to 43.6% against LHB and 46.6% against RHB. Despite these enhancements, he’s given up at least three earned runs in his past four starts and four home runs over his last two. Our projections model favors the Rockies quite a bit, providing them four of the top six spots on the early slate and seven of the top 14 on both FD and DK.
Other tagged players: Trevor Story, Gerardo Parra, Mark Reynolds, Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez, Rafael Montero Zack Greinke leads early slate with a 3.30 SIERA and 27.9% K% but the cheaper Jose Quintana tops our projections model
Weather permitting, Greinke and his slate-leading 13.2% SwStr% will face the Cubs this afternoon. Although Chicago’s lineup has a pitcher-friendly 22.4% strikeout rate, with six guys posting k-rates of above 20% and four above 27%, they also feature plenty of power against RHP. Seven of their eight bats have ISOs of at least .154 and their 2-through-6 batters are all above .200 this season. One of Greinke’s weaknesses is the level of hard contact he allows – 35.1% in 2017 – but no one on the Cubs has a Hard% above 35.8% against RHP this year. However, Bryant, Rizzo, Contreras, Schwarber, and Happ (their 2-through-6 bats) are all between 30.0-35.8% and Baez, in the eighth spot, has posted a 32.2% Hard%. In addition to the weather risk, Greinke may have some trouble getting through this order today, if they can make contact, but there’s clearly plenty of upside. His counterpart, Jose Quintana, is third in the metric (3.97), but he tops our projections model for the early slate, narrowly edging out Greinke. He’s second in strikeout rate (26.0%), although his SwStr% is much lower (8.6%), and he’ll face an Arizona lineup with a 23.1% K%. The lefty will face six bats from the right side of the plate, which could pose some issues. His wOBA jumps from .259 to .316 when comparing LHB to RHB, his Hard% rises from 28.0% to 33.9%, and his FB% increases from 32.4% to 39.6%. The Diamondbacks’ lineup has a combined .204 ISO against LHP this year, but that figure may be a bit misleading. Only two guys are above .200 – Goldschmidt (.203) and Martinez (.600) – and Martinez’s ridiculously high number skews the data. If we take a look at the last two seasons in order to get a larger sample, their team ISO drops to .188, but seven of eight guys are above .157 and five bats are above .180, with Rosales (.214) and Martinez (.313) leading the way. In terms of hard contact, Martinez (50.0%), Goldschmidt (49.3%), and Mathis (46.2%) stick out while Lamb, Blanco, and Pollock sit between 29.8-33.3%. Even with these concerns, Vegas favors Quintana in the matchup (+133) and provides Arizona the lowest project run total on the board (3.88), while Chicago has a 4.62 implied total. The Cubs’ hurler is much cheaper across the industry; he’ll provide a savings of $1.4k on FanDuel and $2.1k on DraftKings, despite checking in as our SP1 this afternoon. As mentioned, this game does come with weather risk, so it’ll be worth monitoring up until lock.
Other tagged players: Jose Quintana