DFS Alerts
Weather could pose problems for two of three games on Thursday's early slate
With storms heading for Chicago this afternoon, we currently have the ARI-CHC matchup listed as ORANGE/YELLOW. There’s a good chance of an in-game delay and there is some threat of a PPD. In Denver, where the Rockies host the Mets, there’s a chance of a late start but everything should clear once the game gets going. Later tonight, several games have weather risk, most notably, the TEX-MIN game is considered ORANGE. In addition to heavy rain, it’s expected to be in the 50s with gusts of wind up to 20 mph. Be sure to check out the weather page for complete details, as weather could play a major factor on today’s slates, and follow Kevin on Twitter @KevinRothWX.
Matt Carpenter scratched Wednesday; Luke Voit replaces and will bat seventh
Carpenter has officially been scratched from the St. Louis Cardinals lineup for tonight’s game against the Milwaukee Brewers due to right hip discomfort. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Luke Voit, who will take over the first base duties and bat seventh. This lineup change will bump Kolten Wong all the way up to the leadoff spot from his original eighth position in the order, while Randal Grichuk will slide down to the eight-hole. However, the remainder of the Cardinals previously confirmed lineup does remain unchanged.
As reported by: Derrick Goold Other tagged players: Luke Voit
Cleveland @ Boston will be delayed, Kevin has updated risk
Cleveland @ Boston will be delayed. The worse news is that Kevin has updated the risk on this game to ORANGE/RED on the Weather page. All players are a risk in this game.
As reported by: Pete Abraham
Cleveland @ Boston an area of concern in Kevin's late forecast
With several games carrying some risk of rain tonight (Kevin mentions more than half the games in his update), Cleveland Boston gets the lone ORANGE grade in his evening forecast. Both pitchers and hitters may be at risk here. Kansas City Baltimore is likely for a late start and hopefully nothing more, but still carries a YELLOW/ORANGE tag. Jake Arrieta and Zack Godley backers need to beware that there is some chance there’s a delay at Wrigley, but Kevin is only giving it a YELLOW right now. Players can read the full report on the Weather page and be sure to follow Kevin on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) on this busy weather night.
Steve Souza scratched again on Wednesday
Souza has been scratched for the second consecutive day. The Rays lineup has shifted quite a bit as a result of the scratch, as Corey Dickerson will now lead off with Peter Bourjos shifting down towards the bottom of the lineup from the #1 spot. Trevor Plouffe will bump up to the second spot in the order, making him a stronger punt play, although we’re not interested in targeting the Rays against Dallas Keuchel, who does a tremendous job of limiting hard contact.
As reported by: Marc Topkin Other tagged players: Peter Bourjos, Corey Dickerson, Trevor Plouffe
LHBs have a .359 wOBA against Daniel Gossett, but with a 58.1 GB% and 22.7% hard hit rate
RotoGrinders has a very informative Trendspotting article available to premium subscribers each day, which takes a look at batters hitting the ball hard the pitchers who allow the hardest contact in the air on the slate. This can not only be used to find batters to target each day, but also non-obvious pitchers to avoid. While the top three pitchers on the board tonight (Dallas Keuchel, Jake Arrieta, Zack Godley) are all excellent contact managers, who nobody is targeting with bats anyway, a less obvious pitcher players might want to avoid is Daniel Gossett or at least from the LH side. He has an ERA and FIP over five with just a 15.6 K% and batters from either side have a .359 wOBA against him. However, RHBs have a 39.1 GB% and 35.5 Hard%, while LHBs have been held on the ground 58.1% of the time on batted balls with a 22.7 Hard%. Their results are based on a .356 BABIP we can find no basis for. It’s still a small sample size with just 47 major league innings for sure and few players were probably targeting Giants in Oakland anyway, but just because a pitcher is a daily fantasy asset doesn’t mean you should automatically stack up against him either.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Trendspotting Other tagged players: Dallas Keuchel, Jake Arrieta, Zack Godley The Diamondbacks are surprisingly tied for the lowest implied team total (3.6) on Wednesday night's slate
Jake Arrieta had the epitome of an up-and-down season through the first half of the year but seems to have settled into a nice groove following the All-Star break, allowing no more than two earned runs each time out and pitching at least six innings in three consecutive starts. The biggest factors in Arrieta’s decline this season had been a jump in his hard hit rate up to 28.1% and a decrease in his usually outstanding ground ball ability down to a 45.5%, essentially making him more susceptible to home runs and potential big innings. Although both of those statistics are roughly in line with league averages, Arrieta’s contact and groundball skills were really what set him apart and made him a former perennial Cy Young candidate. With that said, since the beginning of June, a 10-start sample size, Arrieta has managed to get somewhat back on track, notching a 22.6% hard-hit rate and 50.0% groundball rate. Unfortunately, it’s not all good news, as he seems to have sacrificed some of his strikeouts (18.8%) to get back to his normal low-hard-contact, ground ball ways. Despite the dip in strikeouts of late, Arrieta remains in play across the industry given the lack of other pitchers available on Wednesday’s slate. The matchup with a boom-or-bust Arizona Diamondbacks offense does little to ease concerns of a possible blow-up start for Arrieta, as Arizona ranks 9th in wRC+ (101), 4th in wOBA (.340), and 6th in ISO (.194) versus right-handed pitching this season. However, the Diamondbacks have shown the propensity to have off nights and still strike out at a 23.0% clip to righties, good for seventh-highest in the Majors, which should help Arrieta in the strikeout department. So, clearly, this matchup has the potential for a great point-per-dollar output and strikeout upside, making Arrieta a viable tournament target, though the risk does not necessarily outweigh the reward and should be utilized as such in large-field tournaments.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Lines and Vegas Odds Dodgers homered three times vs Teheran two starts back, fourth best 114 sOPS+ vs fly ball pitchers
Julio Teheran allowed three HRs when he faced the Dodgers in LA two starts back and then another three in Philadelphia last time out. That evened him up with 13 HRs at home and 13 on the road this season. More bad news is that he’s facing the Dodgers again in an even more power friendly environment in Atlanta tonight and the Dodgers have the fourth highest sOPS+ in the majors (114) against fly ball pitcher according to Baseball-Reference. Corey Seager (167 sOPS+) leads the way along with Cody Bellinger (166 sOPS+) to the surprise of nobody. Seager has additionally homered twice in six PAs against Teheran and has a 241 wRC+ over the last week. Bellinger has a .363 ISO vs RHP. Yasiel Puig (141 sOPS+), Joc Pederson (124 sOPS+) and Yasmani Grandal (118 sOPS+) have all handled fly ball pitchers well too. Pederson’s .269 ISO vs RHP since last season is the highest non-rookie mark on the team.
As reported by: Baseball-Reference GB/FB Team Splits Other tagged players: Cody Bellinger, Joc Pederson, Yasiel Puig, Yasmani Grandal Mike Napoli (.333 ISO vs LHP) projected as top FD value vs pitcher who has allowed 20 HRs to RHBs
Charlie Blackmon is the top overall projected batter on the slate against a rookie RHP making his second start at Coors. Chris Flexen’s AA numbers are no joke (24.0 K-BB%), but if he was flustered in his debut in San Diego, what might Coors do to him? The Rockies have a slate high 6.71 Vegas run projection. Three other Coors bats (Nolan Arenado, Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce) appear among the top seven in the RotoGrinders Player Projections. Tyler Chatwood has a -4.4 K-BB% since June 18th, LHBs have a .462 wOBA in that span. The rest of the top seven is comprised of perennial MVP candidates Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, and Jose Altuve. Among batters projected for at least eight DraftKings points, Andrew Benintendi projects as the top value (2.53 Pt/$/K). He costs just $3.4K against an erratic pitcher (Trevor Bauer), who allows a lot of hard contact (89.2 mph aEV, 39.9% 95+ mph aEV). The top projected FanDuel value, regardless of point qualifiers, is Mike Napoli (3.84 Pt/$/K). He costs less than $3K and has a .333 ISO against LHP this year, facing a southpaw in Texas, who has allowed 20 HRs to RHBs this year.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Andrew Benintendi, Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce, Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Jose Altuve Zack Godley leads all pitchers tonight with a 26.2 K% and 14.2 SwStr%.
Wednesday night’s slate is very difficult when it comes to pitching options. Dallas Keuchel and Jake Arrieta are the high cost options. Keuchel tops the Daily K Predictor tonight at 7.22 with Arrieta third (5.86) and both run one-two in the RotoGrinders Player Projections, but it’s the next highest projected pitcher, who fits between them in the Daily K Predictor (6.11) that may get the most play tonight. Zack Godley leads the slate with a 26.2 K% and 14.2 SwStr%. He combines that with a 57.6 GB% and 84.6 mph aEV. The Cubs have been a much better team since the break, but they still strike out a bit more than average. Kuechel would be the top arm if healthy, but his return from the DL was a struggle in which he walked three Tigers in three innings with a 67% hard hit rate. However, he did have a 10.1 SwStr% and 50 GB% in a tough spot. Players will have to hope he’s okay after that tuneup in a high upside spot against the Rays (25.9 K% vs LHP). Arrieta had a 2.25 ERA in July, but estimators much higher. While he ran an 18.6 K%, he had just a 6.6 SwStr% and sacrificed bat missing for superior contact management (50 GB%, -6.7 Hard-Soft%), but that’s a hefty price to pay for contact management. Arizona does have just an 80 wRC+ on the road though. Luke Weaver is a lower cost arm to look at in a high strikeout spot in Milwaukee (25.3 K% vs RHP). He had a 19.8 K-BB% in 36 innings last year, but suffered from BABIP and long ball issues. He’s generated a 21.7 K-BB% through 13 AAA starts this season without BABIP or HR problems. While those issues could pop up again against an offense with an 18 HR/FB at home and vs RHP, it doesn’t cost much more than the minimum to find out. On the other side of that matchup, Brent Suter had a 17.4 K-BB% (9.8 SwStr%) with a 7.0 Hard-Soft% in five July starts.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Dallas Keuchel, Jake Arrieta, Luke Weaver, Brent Suter Edwin Encarnacion and Carlos Santana have each homered three times against Rick Porcello
Carlos Santana (49 PAs) and Edwin Encarnacion (41 PAs) have each homered three times against Rick Porcello. Encarnacion also adds five doubles, while Santana adds too. Unfortunately, both players can not be employed in the same lineup. Also, in the Statcast era (since 2015), Encarnacion is the only batter on the slate with more than seven recorded BBEs against tonight’s opposition picher. He has a 91.2 mph aEV on 17 BBEs. Looking at much smaller sample sizes, Addison Russell homered in his only two PAs against Zack Godley and Corey Seager has homered twice in six PAs (93.1 mph aEV) against Julio Teheran.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Matchups Other tagged players: Carlos Santana, Rick Porcello, Addison Russell, Zack Godley, Corey Seager Andrew McCutchen has a 295 wRC+, 53.9 Hard% and four HRs over the last week
Christian Vazquez (342 wRC+, 41.2 Hard%, one HR) is the hottest batter in the league over the last week and faces the erratic Trevor Bauer tonight. While he’ll snap off a gem every once in a while, he has allowed some of the loudest contact on the slate (89.2 mph aEV, 39.9% 95+ mph EV). No other batter with at least 10 PAs over the last seven days has a wRC+ above 300. Andrew McCutchen (295 wRC+, 53.9 Hard%, four HRs) comes the closest. He’s been smashing the ball for nearly two months now and is in as favorable a spot as he can be in his power suppressing home park, against Robert Stephenson (RHBs .389 wOBA, 36.2 Hard% career). Vazquez’s new Boston teammate, Eduardo Nunez (293 wRC+, 50 Hard%, two HRs), has acclimated himself well to Red Sox fans. He’s hit well against same handed pitching this year (117 wRC+). Anthony Rizzo (285 wRC+, 53.9 Hard%, three HRs) faces one of the top potential pitchers on the slate in Zack Godley (LHBs .328 wOBA, 24.2 Hard% career). He’s also kept LHBs on the ground on 59.7% of batted balls in his young career.
Other tagged players: Christian Vazquez, Eduardo Nunez, Anthony Rizzo Tyler Chatwood has a -4.4 K-BB% since June 18th, LHBs have a .462 wOBA in that span
Exactly half of the teams on a 12 game slate have an implied run line above 4.75 runs, where the Rockies once again top the board at 6.71 implied runs, a full run above their opponent, the Mets (5.79). While Chris Flexen had a difficult debut in San Diego (four walks), he did have a 24.0 K-BB% in seven AA starts before making the jump. Tyler Chatwood, though, has been lit up only even making two post-All-Star break appearances totaling five runs and five walks in 1.1 innings. He has a -4.4 K-BB% in 23 innings since June 18th, in which LHBs have a .462 wOBA against him. Michael Conforto (140 wRC+, .258 ISO vs RHP since last season) and Jay Bruce (127 wRC+, .279 ISO vs RHP since 2016) both have a wRC+ above 150 with a hard hit rate above 40% over the last week and should be a staple of daily fantasy lineups tonight. Considering the stat of pitching on this slate, perhaps high cost offense is the way to go. Pittsburgh is a place where players may look at more affordable bats though. Robert Stephenson walked seven in his last start. RHBs have a .389 wOBA and 36.2 Hard% in 71.1 career innings, but LHBs have been even better (.419 wOBA, 43.4 Hard%). Adam Frazier (260 wRC+ last seven days) costs $2.7K on FanDuel, Josh Bell (115 wRC+, .208 ISO vs RHP career) is less than $4K on either site and John Jaso (106 wRC+, .162 ISO vs RHP since 2016) costs $2.6K or less on either.
Other tagged players: Jay Bruce, Adam Frazier, Josh Bell, John Jaso, Chris Flexen, Tyler Chatwood, Robert Stephenson Rick Porcello is allowing 44.8% Hard% and 46.1% FB% to LHB this season
As a result, Porcello has given up a .342 wOBA and .222 ISO, plus he’s posted an overall contact rate of 81.6%. This sets up a great spot for Cleveland’s lefty bats. They’re currently expected to start five of their first six batters from the left side of the plate: Bradley Zimmer (.213 ISO, .357 wOBA, 32.1% FB%, 38.4% Hard% against RHP this year), Francisco Lindor (.198 ISO, .313 wOBA, 42.9% FB%, 30.5% Hard%), Michael Brantley (.172 ISO, .362 wOBA, 29.9% FB%, 40.7% Hard%), Jose Ramirez (.256 ISO, .398 wOBA, 41.2% FB%, 34.1% Hard%), and Carlos Santana (.215 ISO, .356 wOBA, 42.6% FB%, 36.3% Hard%). Although his numbers are better against RHB, they’re still appealing; he’s posted a .351 wOBA, .205 ISO, 38.8% Hard%, 35.1%, so guys like Edwin Encarnacion (.237 ISO, .352 wOBA, 41.4% FB%, 38.2% Hard%) and Austin Jackson (.109 ISO, .341 wOBA, 40.0% FB%, 41.2% Hard%) are in play. Cleveland’s projected run total is just 4.65 as Porcello has maintained a 4.13 SIERA this season, despite the poor peripheral stats. Still, the Indians’ total may be lower than it should with the way they match up with the Red Sox pitcher and it should keep their ownership down, which presents a nice opportunity to stack them in GPPs.
Other tagged players: Bradley Zimmer, Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Edwin Encarnacion, Carlos Santana, Austin Jackson Masahiro Tanaka leads early slate with a 14.8% SwStr% this season
The Yankees game is currently delayed, which adds some risk to Tanaka, who will toe the rubber against the Tigers this afternoon. He boasts the lowest SIERA on the board (3.54) and his overall k-rate of 25.1% is 4.6% above J.A. Happ, who comes in at second. Detroit will send out a lineup with a combined .149 ISO and .312 ISO vs. RHP this season and have a 21.0% strikeout rate. As a result, they have the lowest projected run total on the early slate (3.69) and Tanaka is the biggest favorite among the six starters (+231). Fittingly, Tanaka tops our projections model Wednesday afternoon while Happ is a distant third. Ervin Santana checks in as our SP2. His opponent, the Padres, have the second-lowest implied total on the slate (3.95) and their projected lineup has a combined 23.3% strikeout rate. However, Santana’s K% and SwStr% are well below Tanaka’s at 18.7% and 9.3%, respectively. It appears Tanaka has a much bigger upside yet Santana’s $10.2k price tag on DraftKings is $1k more than Tanaka. While both pitchers will be popular, Happ makes for an interesting GPP option – at least on two-pitcher sites – given the poor lineup Chicago will start against him. They have a combined .108 ISO, .293 ISO, and 20.3% K% against LHP over the past two seasons and only two bats have ISOs above .114 against LHP this season. He’s much cheaper than the other two options. Luis Perdomo is another cheap target on Wednesday, but his 11.9% K% is concerning considering five of the eight Twins bats are expected to hit from the left side, although Minnesota has a combined 23.4% K% against RHP this year.
Other tagged players: Ervin Santana, J.A. Happ, Luis Perdomo