DFS Alerts
Wade Miley has just a 4.0% K-BB% and 5.45 SIERA over his last five starts
After a hot start to the 2017 campaign, Wade Miley has officially come back down to earth quickly over the last couple of months, allowing at least four runs in nine of his last 11 starts and pitching into the sixth inning on just three occasions. Tonight, Miley is set to face off with a Detroit Tigers squad that has the ability, even a preference, to get extremely right-handed in the right matchups, evidenced by Jim Adduci being the only left-hander in the Detroit lineup this evening. Miley’s strikeout rate to right-handed batters is down to 18.6%, a substantial decrease from his early season totals, while his walk rate has ballooned to 12.0% over that same time period. Miley’s 49.1% groundball rate against righties is slightly above-average but is still not enough to deter us from Tigers hitters considering he is also allowing a 23.5% line drive rate and surrendering hard contact 34.6% of the time. With that said, the Tigers remain likely to be one of the most popular offenses on Saturday’s slate, though Coors Field will likely deflect some of that expected ownership away. Considering the significant ownership the Tigers top bats are expected to attract, it definitely isn’t a horrible idea to try to get creative with Detroit stacks, especially in large field tournaments given their overall strong numbers against left-handed pitching, ranking 1st in wRC+ (125), 1st in wOBA (.360), and 1st in ISO (.221) this season. Based solely on statistics, Justin Upton (187 wRC+, .451 wOBA, .291 ISO vs LHP), James McCann (187 wRC+, .450 wOBA, .343 ISO vs LHP), Nick Castellanos (152 wRC+, .399 wOBA, .375 ISO vs LHP), and Ian Kinsler (115 wRC+, .345 wOBA, .247 ISO vs LHP) all stand out as the premier plays from this Tigers lineup, though McCann’s spot in the batting order should reserve him to tournament exposure only. Falling into the tier as secondary hitting options are Mikie Mahtook (.221 ISO vs LHP), and Miguel Cabrera (127 wRC+, .363 wOBA), who is a borderline elite play based on his career numbers alone but has struggled to hit for power against southpaws this year for whatever reason.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: James McCann, Nick Castellanos, Ian Kinsler, Mikie Mahtook, Miguel Cabrera, Wade Miley
Felix Hernandez scratched Saturday; Marco Gonzales will start in his place
Hernandez has officially been scratched from his start in tonight’s game against the Kansas City Royals following news that he is being placed on the 10-day disabled list with right biceps tendinitis. In his place, Marco Gonzales is expected to receive the starting nod if this game is played (currently ORANGE/RED in Kevin Roth’s weather forecast), and would obviously be a clear downgrade in terms of pitching ability from Hernandez. Meaning, Royals hitters could provide some substantial value at their depressed price tags on Saturday’s main slate.
As reported by: Greg Johns Other tagged players: Marco Gonzales Nelson Cruz scratched Friday; Guillermo Heredia replaces and will bat sixth
Cruz has officially been scratched from the Seattle Mariners lineup for tonight’s game against the Kansas City Royals due to an unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Guillermo Heredia, who will take over the designated hitter duties and bat sixth. This lineup change will bump Danny Valencia up to the cleanup spot in the order, up from his original position in the six-hole. However, the remainder of the Mariners previously confirmed lineup does remain unchanged.
As reported by: Greg Johns Detroit is down 0.29 runs from Friday afternoon, the largest move on the board
Detroit has had the largest run line move since early this afternoon, dropping from 4.37 to 4.08, while their opponent, Baltimore is the only other team to see a drop of more than 0.2 runs (5.13 to 4.92). With the wind blowing out to left and no major lineup surprises, it’s possible that potential late inning weather issues that could cut the game short might be the issue, though Kevin didn’t believe it to be too concerning in his forecast. Doug Eddings is scheduled to be the home plate umpire in the game according to our Umpire Factors page. Both Justin Verlander and Kevin Gausman have been pitching well of late, each exceeding a 25 K% over the last 30 days. Players can track run line movement for all teams on the Vegas Odds page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Justin Verlander
San Diego @ Pittsburgh is the high risk game in Friday evening forecast
San Diego Pittsburgh gets the only ORANGE on the slate in evening weather forecast. Conditions look ugly at first pitch and Kevin believes it will depend on how long they want to wait. Pitchers are unlikely to be a daily fantasy priority in that game, but hitters provide some risk as well. Rain in Baltimore ( Detroit) should hold off until after the game, but it’s not guaranteed. A chance of delay in Atlanta ( Miami) could be a concern for those intent on using pitchers from that game, but shouldn't take bats out of play. Players can read Kevin's whole report on the Weather page and don't forget to follow him on Twitter (KevinRothWx) for further updates.
Eduardo Rodriguez may be the popular lower cost pitcher that gets players to Colorado bats Friday night
While ownership projections are not being updated today, early projections favor Colorado and Boston bats and it looks like Eduardo Rodriguez could be the lower cost pitchers that might get players to those higher cost bats. Considering the numerous quality arms on the slate, players probably shouldn’t be concerned about fading a certain pitcher and just go with their top pick or value. Projected ownership rates for all players are available to premium subscribers on the Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Two top 100 Fangraphs prospects are starting Friday (Banda & Woodruff)
Both Anthony Banda (#88) and Brandon Woodruff (#80) cracked the top 100 prospects list on Fangraphs this pre-season, both carrying a 50 FV (Future Value) grade on the 20-80 scale. Banda has the stuff to dominate major league hitters according to a recent scouting report. In 190 AAA innings he had a modest K-BB above 12%. In his first major league start a couple of weeks ago, he lived in the mid-90s and struck out five of 23 Nationals at home, but was hit rather hard (44.4 Hard%) at home (Arizona). The secondaries (curve, change) weren’t thrown often (30% combined) and still may need a bit of work, but he’s an arm worth considering in a great spot in San Francisco tonight. While the Giants make contact, they do so with very little power (77 wRC+ & 5.7 HR/FB at home, 83 wRC+ & 8.2 HR/FB vs RHP). He costs $6.9K on DraftKings, but just $5.5K on FanDuel and generally gets in five to six innings, going fewer in none of his 13 minor league starts since the beginning of May. Brandon Woodruff was the pre-season 6th best prospect for the Brewers. He led the minor leagues in strikeouts in 2016 (27 K%), though issues with his secondary pitches make scouts uncertain about his future. He ran a 14.8 K-BB% in 14 AAA starts this season, which could translate to a league average pitcher immediately if things break right. He debuts in a completely opposite situation to Banda, against a high strikeout offense in Tampa Bay (25 K% vs RHP), but a high power one (17.7 HR/FB vs RHP). He cost the same on FanDuel ($5.5K), but just $4.8K on DraftKings. The issue here, at least on FanDuel (quality starts) is that he’s gone six innings in just one of his last ten starts.
As reported by: Fangraphs 2017 Top 100 Prospects Other tagged players: Brandon Woodruff Jacob Faria has maintained a tidy 20.9% K-BB% versus RHB through 10 starts
Jacob Faria seems to have hit a bit of a lull in recent outings after a great start to his rookie campaign, allowing three earned runs or more and failing to record more than five strikeouts in three of four starts since the All-Star. However, Faria will take the mound tonight against a Milwaukee Brewers squad that has the propensity to be a boom-or-bust type of offense on a night-to-night basis. The fact does remain that this is still a team that ranks 19th in wRC+ (93) and owns despicable 25.4% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, good for the highest mark in the Majors while drawing walks at an average 8.6% clip.Though Faria has exhibited decent control through 10 Major League starts (8.7% BB%), walks were a bit more of an issue in the Minors, evidenced by a walk rate north of 10.0% in each of his prior three full seasons at baseball’s lower levels, and while it’s obvious that this youngster is going to hit some bumps in the road, the lack of offensive consistency for Milwaukee makes it far more likely that Faria can manufacture a solid outing this evening. Additionally, Faria’s strikeout abilities have clearly carried over to the Majors fairly well, as he has posted an above-average 23.0% strikeout rate overall after recording a 34.7% strikeout rate in 11 starts at AAA this year. On top of that, Faria has posted a 25.4% strikeout rate and a minuscule 4.5% walk rate to right-handed batters, which should help alleviate some of his hard contact issues to righties (34.2% HH%), and while he is striking out lefties at a slightly below-average rate (17.3% K%) and walking them at an absurd 18.7% rate, he has managed to keep the ball on the ground against lefties 56.3% of the time and surrenders hard contact at just an 18.8% clip. Fortunately for us, he’ll also receive the added bonus of drawing a Brewers’ lineup with just two left-handed hitters on Friday night. Still, given the volatile matchup, Faria looks to be a much better tournament option than cash game target, though he still does possess enough upside to compete with the other high-priced arms for the top score on Friday’s slate and is positioned to be an ideal SP2 in tournaments on two-pitcher sites, like DraftKings, where he is fairly priced.
As reported by: FanGraphs Colorado bats dominate the top of the RotoGrinders Player Projections
With an implied run line above six runs tonight, the only team the slate that can say so, the Colorado Rockies dominate the top of the RotoGrinders Player Projections tonight against Vince Velasquez. It’s Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado at the very top with Mark Reynolds and Gerardo Parra fitting a bit lower into the top 10. Velasquez has pitched well in two of three starts back from the DL, but does have an 89.5 mph aEV and 42.6% 95+ mph EV this year. Mike Trout, Mookie Betts and Joey Votto round out the top five, as they might on many days. Players may struggle to fit high end bats and expensive pitchers in their lineups tonight and could look to someone like Travis Shaw, who projects as a top value on DraftKings for $3.3K (2.68 Pt/$/K) against Jacob Faria or Derek Fisher (3.77 Pt/$/K) and Cesar Hernandez (3.73 Pt/$/K) for $3K or less on FanDuel. Both of the latter are in fantastic spots against Cesar Valdez (90 mph aEV) and Kyle Freeland (Coors).
Other tagged players: Nolan Arenado, Gerardo Parra, Mark Reynolds, Travis Shaw, Derek Fisher, Cesar Hernandez, Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, Joey Votto Freeland, Faria and Cotton are three rookies with unconventional contact management splits
Jacob Faria, Kyle Freeland and Jharel Cotton are three rookie pitchers with some interesting platoon splits. Freeland may be the one players are most interested in attacking at Coors with a 14.5 K%. Batted balls in Colorado are generally a good thing. However, he has a 56 GB% with an 84.6 GB%. Weak ground balls aren’t a good thing anywhere. Look at his splits though and despite a natural 29 point wOBA split in favor of RHBs (.333 to .304), it may be LHBs players want to play tonight. RHBs have 60.5 GB% and 28.7 Hard%, while LHBs have a 36.1 GB% and 32.9 Hard%. Jacob Faria is another pitcher with some strange splits. As one would expect, he has a much better K-BB vs RHBs, but the difference is 20.9% vs -1.3% against LHBs. And it’s actually LHBs that have the lower wOBA (.246 to .298). That’s because when LHBs do make contact, they have a 56.3 GB% and -4.1 Hard-Soft%. When RHBs make contact, they only put it on the ground 31.1% of the time with a 34.2 Hard%. It’s difficult to figure out how to handle him from just that information alone. Jharel Cotton, like Faria, blasted through AAA with a 30+ K% that hasn’t quite translated to the majors. An elite changeup was expected to be his signature pitch. To some extent, that remains true. While it would be difficult to tell from his overall splits (LHBs .352 wOBA, seven HRs – RHBs .350 wOBA, eight HRs), the peripherals and contact profile are vastly different. While LHBs have just a 3.3 K-BB%, the changeup has helped him effectively manage contact (-6.0 Hard-Soft%). RHBs have a 14.9 K-BB%, but with a 21.6 Hard-Soft%. His ground ball rate is below 40% either way. This information may not be of much use in as an approach against him tonight because analysis on the Angels usually starts and ends with “play Mike Trout”, though a RHB who has shown some power this year, like Andrelton Simmons (129 wRC+, .166 ISO vs RHP), could be of use.
Other tagged players: Kyle Freeland, Jacob Faria, Mike Trout, Andrelton Simmons James Paxton (21.6 K-BB%, 1.8% Barrels/BBE) has struck out at least eight in six of his last eight starts
Justin Verlander has the top strikeout projection tonight according to the Daily K Predictor (7.3), but there are a total of six pitchers between 6.96 and 7.3, including all four high quality arms on the slate. Verlander has increased strikeouts (25.4%) and decreased walks (9.7%) over his last five starts and also has a hard hit rate below 30% (29.9) for the first five game rolling period this year, but is in a dangerous spot for a fly ball pitcher that allows as much hard contact as he has this year (7.3% Barrels/BBE). Yu Darvish is the top projected pitcher tonight (RotoGrinders Player Projections), followed closely by Madison Bumgarner. Darvish, Bumgarner, James Paxton and Jacob deGrom are all high end arms, mostly slightly separated by matchup and cost. Darvish is the least expensive in his NL debut and faces a Mets lineup with an 18.9 K% vs RHP this year, but a 19.0 K-BB% overall in the last week. He finds immediate gains with his transition in catcher framing (Grandal) and not having to face a DH with a park upgrade tonight. James Paxton has a 21.6 K-BB% with a board low 1.8% Barrels/BBE, despite just an average ground ball rate. He’s struck out at least eight in six of his last eight starts and is in a great spot in Kansas City with a strong defense that can take advantage of the big outfield. Jacob deGrom had his shortest outing in his last nine last time out with just six innings, but he struck out 10 for the eighth time this year. He’s allowed more than two ERs just once over this span. While he’s already at a career high 19 HRs, his 29.1% 95+ mph EV is third best on the board. His 21.0 K-BB% is 10th in all of baseball. Madison Bumgarner threw seven shutout innings at the Dodgers last time out, striking out seven. It was his best start since returning from the DL, but he had just an 8.1 SwStr%. The Diamondbacks have just a 75 wRC+ and 25.8 K% vs LHP, but should be better than that with a Martinez and a healthy Pollock. Jacob Faria finds himself among this group both in the projections and K Predictor as well. He crashed in July with a 4.8 K-BB%, which would have been even worse if he didn’t increase his strikeout total for the month by over 50% with eight his last time out. He also walked a season high five in that start. He’s in a high strikeout spot against Milwaukee (28.2% over the last week), but also a dangerous one (19 HR/FB vs RHP).
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Yu Darvish, Jacob deGrom, Madison Bumgarner, Justin Verlander, Jacob Faria Pair of Red Sox and Angels among week's hottest hitters
The three hottest hitters on the slate over the last week (10 PA min.) remains much the same as yesterday with a few number adjustments. Christian Vazquez (311 wRC+, 42.9 Hard%, one HR) and Eduardo Nunez (263 wRC+, 44 Hard%, two HRs) face off against Carlos Rodon, who has always had problems with RHBs (.344 wOBA since last season), more due to walks than hard contact (27.7%). While he’s striking out 30.2% of righties this year, he’s walking 15.1% of them. Andrew McCutchen (299 wRC+, 31.3 Hard%, four HRs) gets Travis Wood (RHBs .364 wOBA, 34.9 Hard% since 2016), but in a power suppressing park for RHBs. Below that, we find a pair of Angels up against Jharel Cotton tonight. Kaleb Cowart (258 wRC+, 60 Hard%, one HR) is off to a hot start in his most recent go around in the majors. Mike Trout (250 wRC+, 57.9 Hard%, two HRs) is just great and has a 202 wRC+ for the season. Cotton has some interesting splits where he can’t find the plate, but generates weak contact against LHBs, but has a 14.9 K-BB% and 37.4 Hard% vs RHBs this year. It works out to a .350 wOBA either way.
Other tagged players: Christian Vazquez, Andrew McCutchen, Kaleb Cowart, Mike Trout Cheap Minnesota RHBs, San Diego LHBs with strong matchups could provide paths to expensive arms
The Colorado Rockies are once again the top projected team by Vegas (6.27 runs). They’re facing a decent pitcher, who allows a lot of hard contact in Vince Velasquez tonight though. It’s tough to predict how any of his starts are ever going to turn out, but he’s pitched well in two of three starts since returning from the DL and the Rockies have just an 80 wRC+ (15.0 K-BB% vs RHP). Seven more teams have an implied run line above five tonight, making for 30% of the slate above that number. Outside of Coors, although a small sample size, the Astros may have the top offensive matchup against Cesar Valdez, who has allowed a 90 mph aEV in 27 innings. RHBs have a .459 wOBA and 54.9 Hard% with just 37.3% of contact on the ground. The Astros are implied for 5.1 runs. RHBs have a .364 wOBA and 34.9 Hard% against Travis Wood since last season, but Pittsburgh is a tough park for RHBs. It’s not as bad on LHBs and they have a .355 wOBA and 35.5 Hard% against Ivan Nova since last season. Nova’s strikeouts are up, which may make him useful against a high strikeout offense tonight (25.3 K% vs RHP), but LH Padres should play here. Over Nova’s last 10 starts, LHBs have a .413 wOBA and eight HRs. The Padres don’t have many LHBs with much power, but Yangervis Solarte (.180 ISO vs RHP since 2016) is back and perhaps Hector Sanchez (.270 ISO vs RHP this year) gets a start here. Everyone knows about Miguel Sano and Brian Dozier’s prowess against LHP and RHBs have a .351 wOBA (34.4 Hard%) against Martin Perez since last season. The path to higher priced arms and bats tonight might go through the cheaper RH portion of their order. Eduardo Escobar actually has a higher ISO vs LHP than Dozier this year (.225 to .212) and costs less than $3K on FanDuel. Robbie Grossman (143 wRC+ vs LHP since last season) is affordable on either site ($3.6K DK/$2.8K FD).
Other tagged players: Robbie Grossman, Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano, Yangervis Solarte, Hector Sanchez Kevin has increased the risk in Baltimore (ORANGE)
With the game already about to be delayed before getting started, Kevin is now seeing some stuff on the radar he does not like and has increased the risk in this game to ORANGE, which includes some chance of PPD. The Orioles are one of the top projected offenses tonight so players will need to weigh their risk with hitters accordingly.
As reported by: Kevin Roth Orioles-Tigers to be delayed due to rain
Tonight’s Detroit-Baltimore tilt will start in a delay, and we don’t have any estimated start time at this point. Make sure to keep an eye on the RotoGrinders Weather Page and follow Kevin Roth on Twitter for real-time updates.
As reported by: @Orioles