DFS Alerts
Madison Bumgarner is tonight's top projected pitcher, but has allowed four HRs with a 5.0 SwStr% since returning
On a pitching slate that’s somewhat difficult to navigate, the Daily K Predictor sees Charlie Morton (6.73), Madison Bumgarner (6.69) and Luis Castillo (6.58) as top candidates tonight, while the RotoGrinders Player Projections have Bumgarner well ahead of a group that includes Mike Clevinger, Felix Hernandez and Morton behind him. The problem with Bumgarner, the highest priced arm on FanDuel, is that he’s allowed four HRs with just a 5.0 SwStr% in two starts since returning, both against the Padres, though it’s a tough slate to ignore his strong track record. Luis Castillo and Mike Clevinger tie for the top SwStr rate (13.9%) over the last month in which they each have struck out 30% of batters faced. Charlie Morton has the third highest strikeout rate on the slate (25.5%) behind Castillo and Clevinger this year and is as strong a pick as most other arms in his price range against the Phillies (86 wRC+, 23.5 K% vs RHP). Felix Hernandez has been a pitcher on the rebound. He’s coming off his best start of the season (7 IP – 1 ER – 1 HR – 2 BB – 9 K – 25 K) and now has a 22.4 K% for the season (25.8% over the last month). His walks are down 50% from last season, enabling him to nearly double his K-BB to 16.4%. Boston’s 52 wRC+ over the last week is the lowest mark in the league. Jameson Taillon is another arm that needs to be mentioned. Strikeouts are up (27.4% over the last 30 days with an 11+ SwStr% in two of last three starts), while he’s managed contact well this season (52.2 GB%, 5.6 Hard-Soft%, 85.1 mph aEV, 29.7% 95+ mph EV) and is in what is probably the top run prevention spot on the board (San Francisco 74 wRC+ at home, 79 wRC+ vs RHP). He’s the most expensive arm on DraftKings though ($10.9K).
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Charlie Morton, Luis Castillo, Mike Clevinger, Felix Hernandez, Jameson Taillon
Marcell Ozuna and Giancarlo Stanton each have three HRs against Cole Hamels
Victor Martinez has homered three times in 39 PAs against Danny Duffy with a 93.9 mph aEV on 12 BBEs recorded by Statcast. He has just a 93 wRC+ and .059 ISO vs LHP this year, but has come back to life a bit (121 wRC+, 40 Hard% last seven days). Though we don’t have much exit velocity or Statcast information, both Marcell Ozuna and Giancarlo Stanton have three HRs against Cole Hamels. Stanton has struck out 19 times in 52 PAs, but the hot and humid Texas air will make the ball carry and Hamels allowed three bombs in Baltimore last time out with just a 14% strikeout rate this year. Lance Lynn has seen his strikeout rate drop too (17.5% last 30 days) and Gerardo Parra has two HRs against him in 26 PAs with a 94.8 mph aEV on just six BBEs, but Parra also has four doubles and three triples against Lynn for a total of nine extra-base hits. Carrying on with the theme, Michael Fulmer has just a 13.9 K% over the last month. Eric Hosmer has just one HR and no other extra-base hits in 13 PAs, but a 100.5 mph aEV. Even ground balls can be difficult to turn into outs at that speed.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Matchups Other tagged players: Giancarlo Stanton, Cole Hamels, Victor Martinez, Lance Lynn, Gerardo Parra, Michael Fulmer, Eric Hosmer Pair of SS in Cincinnati @ New York (AL) game among the hottest bats over the last week
Although Chris Taylor and Ezequiel Carrera (just 11 PAs) both have a wRC+ above 300 over the last week, both have a hard hit rate below 20% and appear to have been a bit fortunate, especially in Taylor’s case without even a walk in 28 PAs. That leaves us with four bats to consider with a wRC+ above 300 and hard hit rate at least one-third of batted balls over the last week (10 PA min.). Or three if you consider that Nori Aoki leads the slate with a 356 wRC+, 33.3 Hard% and one HR in just 11 PAs also. He may or may not play against Nick Pivetta, who has shown a severe reverse split so far (LHBs .283 wOBA). Didi Gregorius is our first legitimate candidate (325 wRC+, 36.4 Hard%, three HRs). He was one of the few hot Yankees on their just concluded road trip. Luis Castillo has been a strikeout artist, but a bit HR prone with seven in six starts and four of those to LHBs. Jose Altuve (313 wRC+, 34.8 Hard%, one HR) may be the top batter on the slate against Nick Pivetta (RHBs .429 wOBA, 45.1 Hard%). Randal Grichuk (308 wRC+, 45.5 Hard%, four HRs) deserves a bump in the order against Jon Gray, who has seen his strikeouts drop this year. Dropping just below 300, we find Bryce Harper (295 wRC+, 57.1 Hard%, two HRs), an excellent candidate against Zach Davies (LHBs .343 wOBA, 33.1 Hard% career) if he’s affordable. Zack Cozart (292 wRC+, 55 Hard%, three HRs) has been hammering LHP all season (194 wRC+, .303 ISO) and gets a shot at another HR prone one in Yankee Stadium (Jordan Montgomery 10 HRs last eight starts)
Other tagged players: Zack Cozart, Bryce Harper, Jose Altuve, Norichika Aoki, Ezequiel Carrera, Chris Taylor, Randal Grichuk Xander Bogaerts scratched Monday; Andrew Benintendi replaces and will bat second
Bogaerts has officially been scratched from the Boston Red Sox lineup for tonight’s game against the Seattle Mariners due to an unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Andrew Benintendi, who will take over the left field duties from Brock Holt and bat second. Holt will now man the hot corner while Deven Marrero slides over to shortstop. This lineup change shuffles the Red Sox lineup up quite a bit, but the most notable change is Benintendi getting the bump up to second in the batting order, which drops Chris Young down to sixth. Be sure to check out our Starting Lineups page for the other specific lineup changes not detailed in this writing.
As reported by: Jason Mastrodonato Other tagged players: Andrew Benintendi
Pair of Dodger LHBs and Jacob deGrom expected to be most popular players tonight
Corey Seager and Cody Bellinger are top projected overall bats tonight, so it makes a lot of sense that current ownership projections have them as the only two bats reaching 20% of lineups tonight. While First Base almost always has a number of strong options, moving off a powerhouse Shortstop could be more tricky. Francisco Lindor is not expected to be that well represented with his team having the third highest run line tonight. Jacob deGrom is the most expensive pitcher on the board, the top projected one and is also expected to be the most popular, perhaps approaching half of all DraftKings lineups. Kevin Gausman may be the sleeper a number of people are talking about with a slate leading 30 K% over the last month, but how many players will actually have the nerve to pull the trigger on him. Eduardo Rodriguez brings a 17.7 K-BB% into Safeco as is expected to be in even fewer lineups. Ownership projections are updated throughout the day and are available to premium subscribers on the Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Corey Seager, Francisco Lindor, Jacob deGrom, Kevin Gausman, Eduardo Rodriguez Some concern for the Houston @ Philadelphia game in Kevin's evening forecast
The Houston Philadelphia game is the only one with a significant change of weather impact. It should start okay and may even go long enough to get both pitchers through their standard workload, but it's far from risk free as Kevin gives it an ORANGE/YELLOW grade. While it's unlikely that Vince Velasquez would get a lot of play against the top offense in baseball, Brad Peacock is one of the most expensive arms on DraftKings and may need to re-evaluated. His tendency to occasionally lose the strike zone and run up his pitch count could even make things worse if he slows the game down too much. Players can read Kevin's full report on the Weather page and be sure to follow him on Twitter (KevinRothWx) for further updates on this game and any other developments.
Finding the best matchups in the Cleveland lineup against Tim Adleman using PlateIQ
Tim Adleman has an impressive 11 SwStr% this season with a 21.8 K%, but he’s also generated ground balls just 35% of the time, which has led to at least one HR allowed in 10 straight starts. Besides being a very positive run environment in Cleveland, the home team has a 117 sOPS+ against fly ball pitchers, third best in the majors. Top bats in the lineup tonight against fly ball pitchers include Jose Ramirez (171 sOPS+), Edwin Encarnacion (165) and Bradley Zimmer (141). We can filter out this matchup further using PitchIQ. According to Brooks Baseball, Adleman has a four pitch mix that includes a fourseam, sinker, change and curve. Although there are a few more changes to LHBs and a few more curves to RHBs, he throws every pitch to batters from either side at least 10% of the time. He likes to live outside to batters from either side, but stays away from anything that’s low if it’s not outside to LHBs. While Encarnacion is the only RHB we’re interested in, we can see that he likes pitches on the outer half as well. He has not hit changeups that well, but that’s only 15% of Adleman’s mix against RHBs. We’d expect more sinkers and curves, where Encarnacion is fine. From the left-hand side, Zimmer and Francisco Lindor have handled the outter half of the plate best, though Jose Ramirez has hammered anything mistakenly left around the outer middle. Both he and Zimmer have had great success against changeups and curves, while Lindor has had some issue with curveballs, which Adleman throws only 10% of the time to LHBs. It doesn’t take a genius to tell players to stack an offense with a 5.5 implied run line against a HR prone pitcher, but other tools such as PlateIQ along with Baseball-Reference and Brooks Baseball tell us which players may match up best. The ideal stack may be Encarnacion with Ramirez in the middle, but also Zimmer (the top three bats against fly ball pitchers) with Lindor up top.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: Jose Ramirez, Bradley Zimmer, Francisco Lindor Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger top projected batters against Bartolo Colon tonight
The top hitters are so closely grouped together tonight that the RotoGrinders Player Projections have Charlie Blackmon as the top overall bat on DraftKings, but just fifth on FanDuel. Giancarlo Stanton projects for the second highest point total on FanDuel, but is just outside the top 10 on DraftKings. No matter which site you look at, both Cody Bellinger (156 wRC+, .371 ISO vs RHP career) and Corey Seager (148 wRC+, .217 ISO vs RHP since 2016) are top three overall against Bartolo Colon. He’s been thumped by batters from either side this season. Stanton (146 wRC+, .329 ISO vs RHP since 2016) should be in a spot to mash against southpaw Martin Perez in Texas, while the issue with Blackmon is that he retains his Coors price tag in St Louis. Among those projected for more than seven DraftKings points, Yoenis Cespedes and Manny Machado project as top values (2.75 Pt/$/K each). Both cost just $3.6K in decent spots against southpaws tonight (Clayton Richard and Blake Snell). Corey Dickerson projects as the top FanDuel value (4.02 Pt/$/K) without a qualifier against Kevin Gausman, who has been striking out 30% of batters over the last month, but still occasionally being hit hard.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Cody Bellinger, Giancarlo Stanton, Charlie Blackmon, Yoenis Cespedes, Manny Machado, Corey Dickerson In his last five starts, Jacob deGrom has a 2.9% BB% to go along with a 3.10 SIERA
Jacob deGrom is set to take the mound tonight on the road against a hapless, free-swinging San Diego Padres squad in search of his third double-digit strikeout performance in his last five outings. deGrom has continued to look like a new and improved starting pitcher throughout this entire season, but more specifically in the strikeout department. In his first two seasons in the Majors, he notched a 25.5% strikeout rate and 11.8% swinging strike rate in 2014 and a 27.3% strikeout rate and 12.7% swinging strike rate in 2015, meaning he had never been quite the elite strikeout pitcher that’s he been to this point in the year. However, last season’s dip in strikeouts was likely the anomaly of the sample set considering deGrom’s 28.0% strikeout rate and 13.5% swinging strike rate this season would both set new career-highs and are at least somewhat within the range of his 2015 numbers. Adding to the appeal of deGrom on Monday’s main slate is the matchup with a Padres lineup that owns the highest strikeout rate at 25.6% and is a terrible offense against right-handed pitching overall, ranking 26th in wRC+ (87) and 27th in wOBA (.305) while sporting a middling .168 ISO as well. Additionally, deGrom is unarguably the safest and highest upside starting pitching option on the main slate given the Padres slate-low 3.3 runs implied team total and Vegas backing deGrom as a -160 favorite at the time of this writing. This looks to be one of those situations where the reward greatly outweighs the minimal risk, and deGrom should be a cash game lock that still possesses tournament winning upside across the industry. With that said, while the likelihood of deGrom getting lit up in a start against the Padres is minimal to none, there is merit to a deGrom fade in tournaments given his astronomical price tag and likely massive ownership levels.
As reported by: FanGraphs Jacob deGrom is tonight's top projected and most expensive pitcher in San Diego
Kevin Gausman leads the slate with a 30.6 K% and 14.1 SwStr% and the Daily K Predictor has him at the top of the list with a 7.45 strikeout projection in Tampa Bay tonight, just ahead of Jacob deGrom’s 7.28 in San Diego. DeGrom is the top projected pitcher (RotoGrinders Player Projections), just a bit ahead of Zack Greinke, who hosts Atlanta tonight. They are the top priced pitchers on the slate. Greinke has seen his strikeouts slip a bit (24.5 K% over the last month), but is still missing more than an average amount of bats, while deGrom failed to complete seven innings for the first time in seven starts last time out by just one out. He has a 20.0 K-BB%, 50.4 GB% and 7.2 Hard-Soft% over this stretch and the Padres have struck out in a quarter of PAs both at home and against RHPs. Either Brad Peacock or James Paxton are the third most expensive pitcher depending on which site you’re looking at. Peacock has seen his SwStr drop to 9.4% over the last month, which makes his 13.2 BB% more of a concern. Paxton is in a low strikeout spot against the Red Sox (5.0 K-BB% vs LHP), but does get them at home and ties Gausman for the top SwStr rate over the last month (14.1%). He has a slate low 2.0% Barrels/BBE for the season with a K-BB up to 19.7% now. Gerrit Cole might be the other high end arm to consider tonight. While he struck out a season high 10 in his last start, there’s still some skepticism in his 26.8 K% over the last month with just an 8.9 SwStr%. However, his 85.2 mph aEV is the lowest on the slate and he has the unquestioned top run prevention matchup on the board in San Francisco (5.8 HR/FB at home, 8.7 HR/FB vs RHP). There is no team within 13 wRC+ points of the Giants 74 at home. They are also last against RHP (79 wRC+). For players paying up for a top arm on two pitcher sites, consider that Chris Smith has had a K-BB between 13.8-14.9% each of the last three years in AAA and had a 10.8 SwStr% with a 50% ground ball rate through two starts.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Zack Greinke, Kevin Gausman, Brad Peacock, Gerrit Cole, James Paxton Eric Hosmer has two HRs (eight extra-base hits) with a 94.4 mph aEV against Justin Verlander
According to Baseball Savant, Alex Gordon is the only batter with more than two HRs against the pitcher he’s facing tonight, but it’s taken him 85 PAs to generate his three long balls against Justin Verlander, in which he has struck out 26 times with only an 84.7 mph aEV on six Statcast recorded BBEs. Salvador Perez (55 PAs), Eric Hosmer (83 PAs) and Brandon Moss (26 PAs) all have a pair of HRs against Verlander as well, Hosmer with the most notable aEV (94.4 mph), adding five doubles and a triple. In fact, among those with at least eight BBEs recorded by Statcast, only J.D. Martinez has a higher aEV against tonight’s pitcher (97 mph aEV against R.A. Dickey).
As reported by: Baseball Savant Matchups Other tagged players: Salvador Perez, Alex Gordon, Brandon Morrow, JD Martinez, Justin Verlander, R.A. Dickey Kevin Gausman has a slate leading 30.6 K% and 14.1 SwStr% over the last month
Three starts back, Kevin Gausman struck out seven of 22 batters, but allowed six runs (five earned) on a .643 BABIP (42.9 Hard%) over four innings. He followed that up striking out five of 17 Cubs, but with four HRs allowed. In his last start, he struck out eight of 24 Rangers, allowing just one run over six innings. In fact, he leads the slate with a 30.6 K% and 14.1 SwStr% over the last month. The significant change in approach has been more splitters which are generating more chases. Obviously, not everything has gone perfectly as the contact authority has been hit or miss. He’s still making mistakes and his 9.5% Barrels/BBE is highest on the board against an offense with an 18.0 HR/FB vs RHP, but it’s also a park upgrade against an offense with a strikeout rate above 24% at home and against RHP. This is a spot where exposure to one side or the other could result in a top point total. Players can consider Gausman’s new found upside in conjunction with a Rays offense with only one batter who has a wRC+ above 85 and a hard hit rate above 25% over the last week (Steven Souza 174 wRC+, 33.3 Hard%), while also hedging in a separate lineup. For the season, Souza (150 wRC+, .296 ISO), Corey Dickerson (133 wRC+, .237 ISO) and Logan Morrison (148 wRC+, .325 ISO) have all been proficient against RHP. While Gausman has had a strong reverse split in the past (RHBs .346 wOBA, LHBs .314 for his career), this year, LHBs have a 390 wOBA, 2.9 K-BB% and 20.1 Hard-Soft% against him.
Other tagged players: Steven Souza, Corey Dickerson, Logan Morrison Giancarlo Stanton has a 55.6 Hard% with four HRs over the last week
While there are four batters on the slate exceeding a 300 wRC+ over the last week (10 PA min.), the top two (Randal Grichuk 341, Seth Smith 315) barely meet the plate appearance threshold (12 each), though both have multiple HRs and the latter has a 66.7 Hard% over that span. Unfortunately, Smith is very unlikely to play tonight against a lefty (Blake Snell) in Tampa Bay. The remaining two (Gerardo Parra 313, Chris Tayler 306) have a hard hit rate below 25%. Dropping below 300, we find Charlie Blackmon (295 wRC+, 52.4 Hard%, three HRs), who leaves Coors, but carries his exorbitant price tag with him to St Louis. If we take a different approach, Giancarlo Stanton has a 184 wRC+ and 55.6 Hard% over the last week, but ties for the league lead with four HRs. He may also be the top hitter on the slate in Texas against Martin Perez (RHBs .348 wOBA, 34 Hard% since last season).
Other tagged players: Randal Grichuk, Seth Smith, Gerardo Parra, Chris Taylor, Charlie Blackmon RHBs have a .436 wOBA (eight HRs) and 43.2 Hard% vs Clayton Richard over last eight starts
Without a Coors game on the slate, no team has an implied run total above six tonight, though seven are above five runs and two (Rangers & Dodgers) separate themselves nearly half a run above the rest of the pack. The Rangers are park infused in one of the top run environments in play today against a pitcher who has been erratic, but not necessarily always bad and with occasional reverse splits in Adam Conley. Texas has just an 81 wRC+ and 25.7 K% vs LHP. The Dodgers, on the other hand, should punish Bartolo Colon. LHBs have a .348 wOBA and 36.9 Hard% against him since last year. On the lower half of the board, the New York Mets have an implied run line of just 4.17. Clayton Richard’s ground ball rate dips to a reasonable 55.7% against RHBs since last season with a .374 wOBA. This year, it’s .390 with all 16 of his HRs allowed. Since 5/27 (eight starts), RHBs have a .436 wOBA (eight HRs), just a 12.5 K% and 43.2 Hard%. While Yoenis Cespedes (167 wRC+, .306 ISO vs LHP since last season) is an obvious choice, even in a down year, and Wilmer Flores (159 wRC+, .308 ISO vs LHP since 2016) is a known lefty masher by this point, the surprise may be Jose Reyes (159 wRC+, .283 ISO vs LHP since 2016), who has a 132 wRC+ in the second half of the season. Travis D’arnaud has smashed LHP too this year (203 wRC+, .349 ISO) and costs around $3K on either site.
Other tagged players: Wilmer Flores, Jose Reyes, Travis d'Arnaud, Clayton Richard, Adam Conley, Bartolo Colon Start of Sunday's OAK-NYM game will be delayed due to rain
The beginning of today’s game between the Oakland Athletics and New York Mets will start in a rain delay. There is currently no estimated start time for the contest to get underway. Kevin Roth had the risk of this game graded as GREEN in his initial weather forecast update due to a chance of a “sprinkle”. Apparently, this light rain was enough to cause a rain delay in the Big Apple. Given Kevin’s overall lack of concern with this game, obviously, batters and even pitchers remain firmly in play considering the chance of postponement is minuscule to none at all.
As reported by: Susan Slussler