DFS Alerts
ORANGE/YELLOW in MIA-CIN game headlines Sunday's MLB weather forecast
It’s a much quieter day on the weather front for today’s 10-game main slate opposed to Saturday night’s debacle of the severe rain delay and postponement threats. The game with the highest weather risk comes to us in Cincinnati for the matchup between the Miami Marlins and Cincinnati Reds at a grade of ORANGE/YELLOW due to the likelihood of a late start with substantial rain currently in the area. However, once the game gets underway, Kevin Roth believes that they should be able to play through if they so desire. This means that hitters from this contest remain in play despite some added risk. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page
Lance McCullers has fallen victim to an insane .410 BABIP and 54.6% LOB% since returning from DL stint
Lance McCullers has experienced some unexpected difficulty in recent outings since being activated from the disabled list, allowing three earned runs or more in all but one start and failing to pitch past the fifth inning each time out. This afternoon, he’ll take on a Baltimore Orioles squad that ranks in the middle of the pack in wRC+, wOBA, and even in ISO versus right-handed pitching, but they do offer some appeal in the strikeout department, ranking ninth-worst in the Majors with a 22.5% strikeout rate. McCullers has maintained his elite strikeout ability this season, evidenced by a 27.6% strikeout rate to hitters from both sides of the plate that is supported by a fantastic 12.4% swinging strike rate, just slightly lower than his 13.0% mark from the 2016 season. Additionally, this matchup with Baltimore is a great one for McCullers, as the Orioles are only rolling out two left-handed hitters, and his ground ball ability is much more effective versus right-handed batters (65.2% GB%), though still solid to lefties (60.7%). He has also notched an elite a 23.9% hard-hit rate overall, which sets up perfectly alongside his ground ball skills against this occasionally susceptible Orioles lineup. Another key development in McCullers repertoire is that he has managed to maintain a walk rate (7.5%) significantly below his career 9.3% rate, which essentially increases his ceiling and enables him to pitch deeper into contests. It’s pretty easy to make a viable argument for paying up for McCullers in tournaments, where he provides a sizable discount to Corey Kluber, who remains the clear cash game starting pitcher across the industry. This strategy becomes an interesting one given McCullers’ upside and even likelihood of being the highest scoring starting pitcher and would enable players to pay up for higher quality hitters in multiple spots and optimally provide a higher lineup ceiling than players that choose to start their tournament teams with Kluber for a much more expensive price tag.
As reported by: FanGraphs Start of Saturday's MIA-CIN game will be delayed due to rain
The beginning of tonight’s game between the Miami Marlins and Cincinnati Reds will start in a rain delay. There is currently no estimated start time for the contest to get underway. Kevin Roth had the risk of this game graded as YELLOW in his initial weather forecast update due to a line storms moving towards the stadium. Unfortunately, the storms are still a good bit away from reaching Great American Ballpark, so this could be a potentially lengthy opening delay. The good news is that this game is highly likely to play through upon the conclusion of the rain delay. Obviously, this means batters remain firmly in play considering the chance of postponement is minuscule to none at all.
As reported by: Tim Healey Start of Saturday's HOU-BAL game will be delayed due to rain
The beginning of tonight’s game between the Houston Astros and Baltimore Orioles will start in a rain delay. There is currently no estimated start time for the contest to get underway. Kevin Roth had the risk of this game graded as ORANGE in his initial weather forecast update due to a batch of rain in the area that was likely to cause a late start. Unfortunately, there’s a possibility of another line of storms coming in behind this current rain, meaning that the potential for a postponement cannot be ruled out. This game is far from safe but the game does have an 11.5 O/U, so hitters from both teams could pay off big time at reduced ownership should this game be completed following the initial rain delay.
As reported by: Jake Kaplan Andrew Cashner sports a 6.01 xFIP and -0.6% K-BB% versus LHB this season
Andrew Cashner comes into tonight’s game against the Tampa Bay Rays in search of his third straight quality start, which is absurd to think about given his horrific 5.65 SIERA on the season, but he has shown some cracks in the armor at times this season. The main attributes to the high SIERA are a low 11.6% strikeout rate and high 10.2% walk rate, which are a terrible formula for him to be able to maintain anywhere near his current 3.58 ERA that is mostly driven by a below-average BABIP and his ability to limit hard contact to the tune of a 29.8% rate. It’s should be obvious that Cashner’s luck is due to run out at any time now, but after looking deeper at his splits, it’s an even greater guarantee that his success against left-handed hitters will not continue. He still has the low strikeouts, a high line drive (22.6% LD%) and fly ball rates (39.8% FB%), and just a .266 BABIP that has yet to fully correct itself. All of these aforementioned statistics do not equate to long-term success for any pitcher, let alone one of Cashner’s caliber. Considering his tremendous amount of luck, this is an extremely tough matchup to break down, but we need to continue trusting in the numbers which make Logan Morrison (152 wRC+, .393 wOBA, .333 ISO vs RHP) and Corey Dickerson (140 wRC+, .375 wOBA, .244 ISO vs RHP) the main Rays hitters to focus exposure and are elite plays on Saturday’s slate. Meanwhile, Mallex Smith (109 wRC+, .330 wOBA vs RHP) lacks any real power upside but should be considered as part of any Tampa Bay stacks given his speed and solid on-base ability. The trickier side of this matchup is the Rays right-handed bats since Cashner owns a 61.3% groundball rate and a below-average 27.6% hard hit rate, which are skills he’s exhibited in the past and may actually be sustainable for him going forward. Clearly, with Cashner’s overall track record he’s prone to a blow up at any time, but with the possibility of his success against righties continuing, it seems optimal to limit exposure to the Rays righties like Steven Souza Jr. (152 wRC+, .393 wOBA, .303 ISO vs RHP) and Evan Longoria (114 wRC+, .338 wOBA, .184 ISO vs RHP) to just large-field tournaments on tonight’s main slate.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Corey Dickerson, Mallex Smith, Steven Souza, Evan Longoria, Andrew Cashner Several games with major weather concerns in Saturday's MLB forecast
To put it mildly, there are a plethora of games on Saturday’s 13-game main slate that needs to be monitored for weather, as a grand total of six games have a received a risk grade with some combination of ORANGE and/or YELLOW. Meaning, there are certainly some games with postponement potential. So, be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page Zack Wheeler poised for positive regression to his 18.0% K% vs RHB in matchup with free-swinging A's lineup
Zack Wheeler is in search of the same consistency he exhibited earlier this season as he faces off against the Oakland Athletics tonight coming off of a less than stellar outing against the St. Louis Cardinals in which he allowed four earned runs in 5.1 innings pitched and struck just five batters. On the plus side, Wheeler has continued to pitch well to right-handed batters this year, something he thrived at in his last full season in the Majors. Although his strikeout rate is much lower than we’d expect going forward versus righties, his 52.8% ground ball and 29.7% hard hit rates are more than respectable and fall right in line with his career numbers. With that said, the low 18.0% strikeout rate in 2017 is still likely fluky due to the small sample size, as Wheeler owns a 22.3% career strikeout right versus right-handed batters. A big issue for Wheeler has always been left-handed hitters, but his strikeout rate has increased to 24.5% thus far, though his 10.3% walk rate, below-average 41.8% groundball rate, and high 38.4% hard hit rate do not indicate any kind of sustained success against lefties going forward. The good news for Wheeler is that he only has to deal with two, maybe three, proven left-handed bats in this Athletics lineup, with Yonder Alonso, Matt Joyce, and Jed Lowrie being the main lefties he will need to work around to post a successful outing and get back on track. Wheeler’s safety in this spot isn’t great, but the matchup with an Athletics squad that has the second-highest strikeout rate (25.4%) versus right-handed pitching and low price tag make him an appealing SP2 on DraftKings for tournaments on a slate where salary relief will be at a premium.
As reported by: FanGraphs Ryan Raburn scratched Saturday; Chris Heisey replaces and will bat second
Raburn has officially been scratched from the Washington Nationals lineup for tonight’s game against the Arizona Diamondbacks due to an unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Chris Heisey, who will take over the outfield duties and bat second. This lineup change will demote Wilmer Difo down to the eighth spot in the order from his original two-hole position, making him a much less appealing option. However, the remainder of the Nationals previously confirmed lineup does remain unchanged.
As reported by: Dan Kolko Other tagged players: Chris Heisey Chris Archer has a 26.7% K-BB% and 2.92 xFIP at home this season
Chris Archer is set to take the mound against the Texas Rangers tonight in the midst of a solid four-start stretch for the Tampa Bay Rays’ ace, allowing no more than three earned runs in at least six innings of work each time out. More impressively, Archer has managed to record a minimum of eight strikeouts in three of those four aforementioned starts. A while back, Archer had really begun to turn it around after a shaky start in the first month of the 2017 campaign, especially in the strikeout department, notching double-digit strikeouts in five of seven starts spanning more than a full month’s time, and flashing that elite upside that we have all come to know and love. Thus, the current season advanced statistics for Archer are essentially in line or slightly better than his career numbers, evidenced by a 3.57 SIERA, 28.7% strikeout rate, and a 7.9% walk rate. One concerning area is the small dip in his groundball rate (41.5% GB%) from a career 46.0% rate that is correlated with a career-high 37.6% hard hit rate, though a 20-start sample size is still arguably too small to place too much stock in the hard contact issues but remain worrisome nonetheless. However, given the matchup with a Rangers squad that is merely an average offense against right-handed pitching overall, it’s not hard to see why Archer still possesses one of the highest ceilings among starting pitchers on Saturday’s slate, especially once we factor in that Texas owns the fifth-highest strikeout rate (23.7% K%) against righties this season. If weighting splits, another advantage with this spot is that Archer has always been a more dominant pitcher at home throughout his career, which has held true once again, with a 32.7% strikeout rate at Tropicana Field opposed to just a 24.9% strikeout rate on the road. So, clearly, even in what will likely be perceived as a neutral matchup by the general public from a macro point of view, Archer still possesses the upside to finish the day as the highest scoring starting pitcher on any given slate, especially when facing off with an offense that has the propensity to rack up punch outs in bunches.
As reported by: FanGraphs Start of Friday's MIA-CIN game will be delayed due to rain
The beginning of tonight’s game between the Miami Marlins and Cincinnati Reds will start in a rain delay. There is currently no estimated start time for the contest to get underway. Kevin Roth had the risk of this game graded as YELLOW/GREEN in his initial weather forecast update due to a few storms moving towards the ballpark. Unfortunately, the storms are still a good bit away from reaching Great American Ballpark, so Kevin suggests buckling up for a potentially lengthy delay. The good news is that this game is highly likely to play through upon the conclusion of the current delay. Obviously, this means batters remain firmly in play considering the chance of postponement is minuscule to none at all.
As reported by: Official Twitter Account of the Cincinnati Reds Only significant run line movement Friday afternoon belongs to the Phillies (+0.35)
It’s not often the case that the Phillies have a high implied total, but they’re up to 4.85 runs after the biggest jump from early this afternoon (4.5 implied runs). In fact, their 0.35 move is nearly double the next highest move in either direction. No other offense has moved more than one-fifth of a run in either direction. It’s not certain what precipitates the large movement in favor of the Philadelphia offense, but Nick Williams (117 wRC+, .220 ISO vs RHP) is an affordable bat in the third slot for an offense getting a lot of attention. Players can track line movement for all teams on the Vegas Odds page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds
Ownership is expected to be well spread out among quality arms and affordable offense Friday night
It’s interesting to see Max Scherzer, Alex Wood and Jeff Samardzija projected as the most popular pitchers on a star studded slate that includes Chris Sale, Aaron Nola and Yu Darvish as well. The plethora of excellent options on the mound means players shouldn’t worry about popularity and just go with their top picks and/or values. Along with Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado, affordable LH Houston bats and Kansas City Royals should be well represented as well as players are more likely to focus on top pitchers. Potential weather concerns in Colorado could further push the emphasis towards dominant pitching tonight. With offense and pitching so well spread out tonight, no single player or team is expected to dominate ownership tonight. Projections are updated throughout the day and available to premium subscribers on the Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Alex Wood, Jeff Samardzija, Aaron Nola, Yu Darvish, Chris Sale, Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado ORANGE/YELLOW in Colorado headlines Kevin's Friday evening forecast.
Pittsburgh at Colorado is the biggest weather risk on the slate. A small PPD risk precedes an ORANGE/YELLOW tag. Player will want to stay tuned for further updates, but it doesn’t seem necessary to fade players from that high run expectancy game just yet. Three other games are YELLOW/GREEN, but none with important pitcher considerations (unless you’re considering Ervin Santana or Anibal Sanchez) with batters likely safe in these affairs. Kevin also outlines a few hot and humid spots where the ball will travel further tonight, so read the full report on the Weather page and be sure to follow him on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page Other tagged players: Ervin Santana, Anibal Sanchez Trevor Cahill has a 25.0% K-BB% and 2.97 SIERA in his last three starts
Trevor Cahill is set to make his fourth start since being activated from the disabled list against the San Francisco Giants tonight after pitching beautifully his last time out against this same Giants squad, allowing one earned run in 6.2 innings pitched and striking out eight. Since his return from injury, Cahill has remained one of the several pitchers this season that had seen a drastic increase in his strikeout rate over his typical career numbers, evidenced by his measly 17.3% career punch out rate. However, through 10 starts in 2017, his strikeout rate is all the way up to 29.5% and is even supported by a 13.4% swinging strike rate, meaning that this newfound strikeout ability is more than sustainable if he is able to continue inducing that many swings and misses in or around the strike zone. Even if those numbers regress a small amount following the stint on the disabled list, Cahill would still find himself in the category of pitchers with elite strikeout ability. In addition to the increased strikeouts, Cahill has managed to induce groundballs at a 56.8% rate, which is something he has always been able to do well but is extra impressive considering he isn’t sacrificing any of his groundball ability to increase his strikeout totals. He also will receive the added benefit of squaring off with a Giants team that is extremely susceptible to right-handed pitching and ranks 29th in wRC+, dead last in wOBA, and dead last in ISO, despite striking out just 19.8% of the time, good for a tie for eighth-best in the Majors. Furthermore, the Giants draw walks at just a 7.3% clip, a bottom-ten walk rate, which should help Cahill keep his occasional control issues in check (8.3% BB%) and pitch his way to a solid outing even without the perceived high strikeout upside in this matchup.
As reported by: FanGraphs Zack Godley and Paul Blackburn are facing top three offenses against ground ball pitchers
Zack Godley was roughed up for the first time this year in his last start in Atlanta, allowing multiple HRs also for the first time. He also struck out a season high nine batters. His 14.5 SwStr% and 57 GB% this year speak of dominance otherwise, but one potential reason for hesitation tonight is not only a hot Washington offense (132 wRC+ since the break) in a difficult run environment, but 129 team sOPS+ against ground ball pitchers. Daniel Murphy leads the charge with a 230 sOPS+, while Ryan Zimmerman (156), Bryce Harper (138) and Anthony Rendon (112) have all been strong as well. Harper and Rendon have each added four HRs with a wRC+ above 300 since the break as well. Paul Blackburn has started just four games with a 1.83 ERA with a SIERA over four runs higher due to a .230 BABIP and 89.1 LOB%. Contact management has been a bit of a strength because despite an 87.8 mph aEV, he’s allowed just 1.6% Barrels/BBE due to a strong 54 GB%. That may not be good news against a Mets offense with a 123 sOPS+ against ground ball pitchers. Michael Conforto (188 sOPS+ vs fly ball pitchers) and Lucas Duda (151 sOPS+) lead the elevate and celebrate crowd this year. Coincidentally, they’ve been the hottest two bats in the lineup since the break, with a 168 wRC+ and 181 wRC+ respectively.
As reported by: Baseball-Reference GB/FB Team Splits Other tagged players: Lucas Duda, Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman, Daniel Murphy, Anthony Rendon, Zack Godley, Paul Blackburn