DFS Alerts
Joey Gallo has a 262 wRC+ (41.7 Hard%) with four HRs over the last week
No single batter on the 10 game night slate has a wRC+ above 300 over the last week (10 PA min.). Chris Taylor (290) and Jose Altuve (278) lead the slate, but both have a hard hit rate below 30%. Altuve has shown an ability to be productive without absolutely smashing the ball though and his 14.3 K% over the last week only helps, though his 51.3 O-Swing% and 16 SwStr% are concerning. He additionally has a tough matchup with Aaron Nola (.282 wOBA vs RHBs since last season). Eddie Rosario (272 wRC+, 42.9 Hard%, one HR) has the highest wRC+ with a hard hit rate above 30%. He won’t face Alex Wood tonight, but will match up throughout the game with a deep Dodger bullpen. Joey Gallo (262 wRC+, 41.7 Hard%, four HRs) is affordable with massive power potential in a favorable spot (LHBs .340 wOBA vs Jose Urena since last season) in the Texas heat, but suffers a bottom of the lineup penalty that doesn’t guarantee four PAs. Alex Bregman (261 wRC+, 33.3 Hard%, two HRs) has the same matchup as Altuve. J.T. Realmuto (254 wRC+, 46.2 Hard%, two HRs) is at least interesting on the other side of that Texas matchup. RHBs have just a .272 wOBA since last year against Yu Darvish, who struck out a season high 12 batters last time out, but also allowed three homers.
Other tagged players: Chris Taylor, Jose Altuve, Eddie Rosario, Alex Bregman, J.T. Realmuto
Anibal Sanchez and Ricky Nolasco both allowing RHBs a wOBA above .380 this year.
A 10 game night slate has the Texas Rangers on top with a 6.21 implied run line. Jose Urena is rocking the 7.3 K-BB% and 9.4% Barrels/BBE in the Texas heat tonight (temperatures are expected in the upper 90s). They and the Cubs (5.76 implied runs against James Shields) are the easy stacks tonight. Seven more offenses are at 4.77 runs or above with rest of the 12 teams below 4.5 runs currently. A lot of the more interesting matchups may be same-handed though. Both Anibal Sanchez and Rickey Nolasco are allowing a wOBA to RHBs in excess of .380 this season. While that would pin a lot on the shoulders of Edwin Encarnacion (130 wRC+, .261 ISO vs RHP since 2016), the only RHB regularly in the top half of the Cleveland lineup, 10 of Nolasco’s 26 homers have been surrendered to LHBs with a .333 wOBA. Kansas City RHBs could be more interesting and less popular at 4.84 implied runs. Jorge Bonifacio, Whit Merrifield and Salvador Perez all exceed a 100 wRC+ and .180 ISO vs RHBs this year and each have at least a 180 wRC+ over the last week. Merrifield in particular has raised his fly ball rate by more than five points (42.8%) against RHP this year, which has led to increased success against same handed pitching. Sanchez has attacked RHBs with fastballs, sliders and changes all more than 10% of the time this year, attempting to work outside, but leaving too many pitches out over the plate. PlateIQ identifies both Merrifield and Perez as potentially good matchups here.
Other tagged players: Salvador Perez, Jorge Bonifacio, Anibal Sanchez, Ricky Nolasco, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Urena, James Shields Anibal Sanchez has allowed 37.9% Hard% to RHB over last two seasons
Sanchez has given up 15.4% Soft% and a 43.2% FB% across that span (444 TBF). As a result, righties have a posted a .378 wOBA and .252 ISO. In 2017, Sanchez’s hard contact rate has risen even further, to 46.9%, although his fly ball rate has dropped to 34.6%. Still, he’s allowed a .394 wOBA and .283 ISO against RHB this year (120 TBF). This sets up a nice matchup for the Royals today with Salvador Perez (.246 ISO, .361 wOBA, 40.6% Hard%, 49.1% FB%) being the most appealing option among them. Whit Merrifield (.179 ISO, .333 wOBA, 32.4% Hard%, 43.3% FB%), Jorge Bonifacio (.195 ISO, .344 wOBA, 33.5% Hard%, 33.5% FB%), and Lorenzo Cain (.142 ISO, .346 wOBA, 30.8% Hard%, 34.6% FB%) are also interesting targets. Its worth noting Sanchez has a higher strikeout rate against RHB (24.2%) than LHB (17.6%) this season. However, he’s been better against lefties in most categories – but his .207 ISO and 49.0% FB% are still appealing. Through 130 LHB faced, he’s also given up a .333 wOBA, 31.6% Hard, 18.4% Soft%. Lefty Mike Moustakas (.296 ISO, .367 wOBA, 33.7%, 48.2% FB%) seems like a strong target and Eric Hosmer (.183 ISO, .367 wOBA, 29.9% Hard%, 23.5% FB%) is another Royal worth a look. Kansas City has a projected run total of 4.84, which is good for seventh Wednesday night.
Other tagged players: Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Whit Merrifield, Jorge Bonifacio, Lorenzo Cain
Aaron Blair set to make his 2017 debut against Diamondbacks Wednesday afternoon
This sets up a very appealing matchup for Arizona as their projected lineup boasts a combined .209 ISO and .346 wOBA against RHP this year. Blair started 15 games in 2016 and finished with a 5.49 SIERA and 14.2% K%. Against RHB (165 TBF), he posted a .337 wOBA, .231 ISO, and 18.2% K% and his numbers were worse against LHB (159 TBF): .432 wOBA, .284 ISO, and 10.1% K%. This makes Jake Lamb (.300 ISO, .414 wOBA vs. RHP this season) a top choice on the afternoon slate. Fellow lefties Gregor Blanco (.168 ISO, .361 wOBA) and Daniel Descalso (.189 ISO, .363 wOBA) are also appealing in a stack. Of course, RHB A.J. Pollock (.203 ISO, .392 wOBA), Paul Goldschmidt (.283 ISO, .434 wOBA), and J.D. Martinez (.256 ISO, .355 wOBA) are in excellent spots as well. As one might expect, Arizona has the highest projected run total on the early slate (5.87).
Other tagged players: Paul Goldschmidt, Daniel Descalso, JD Martinez, Gregor Blanco Jeff Samardzija checks in as our top points-per-dollar pitcher on DraftKings' early slate Wednesday
Chris Sale and his 36.4% K%, 16.1% SwStr%, and 2.51 SIERA is the obvious SP1 this afternoon. Fittingly, his raw projection (32.7 DK points) is well ahead of anyone else, with Luis Severino coming in second (25.74 DK points). The latter will cost $11.5K on DK this afternoon while The Shark is just $7.6k. Our model provides him a projection of 19.31 DK points, which places him at the top of our points-per-dollar rankings. Although he’s been poor against LHB this year (276 TBF), posting a .358 wOBA and a .267 ISO, he’s only expected to face two lefties this afternoon – Josh Bell (.346 wOBA, .233 ISO) and Adam Frazier (.312 wOBA, .111 ISO). Against the RHB (257 TBF), he’s limited opponents to a combined .299 wOBA, .164 ISO, 26.7% Hard%, 23.6% Soft%, and 28.2% FB%. Collectively, Pittsburgh’s projected lineup has a .331 wOBA and .144 ISO this season against RHP. Not surprisingly, they have the third-lowest projected run total (3.7). That makes Samardzija a relatively safe option for his price range. However, the upside may be limited. Not only do the Pirates have a solid 17.6% K% against RHP, but Samardzija’s strikeout rate drops from 28.2% against lefties to 22.6% when facing righties. Nobody on the Pittsburgh squad has a k-rate above 21.8% and five guys have posted rates between 12.2%-18.6% against RHP this year. Still, he offers a huge savings from Severino on DK (he’s only $1.0k cheaper on FanDuel) and actually comes in higher on our Daily K Predictor tool – 6.29 vs. 5.30. Although Sale is clearly the top choice on one-pitcher sites, Samardzija is a very appealing SP2.
Other tagged players: Luis Severino, Chris Sale No weather concerns on early slate Wednesday; late-inning rain possible in two spots tonight
Only two of the five games will be outside this afternoon. It won’t be very warm in San Francisco – 67 degrees at first pitch – but it’ll be pretty humid. We’ll see warmer weather in New York, where it’ll be 76 degrees and humid when the Yanks host the Reds. On tonight’s slate we have two games that may experience late-inning precipitation – Cubs-Whitesox (YELLOW) and Rockies-Cardinals (YELLOW/GREEN). While most areas will have temperatures in the 70s tonight, St. Louis is one of two cities expected to surpass 90 degrees, with the other being Arlington, where the Marlins will play the Rangers. Overall, it’s a pretty clear forecast, but it’ll be worth checking back on those two trouble spots before lock and be sure to follow Kevin on Twitter dot com @KevinRothWX.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Miguel Sano scratched Tuesday; Jorge Polanco replaces and will bat seventh
Sano has officially been scratched from the Minnesota Twins lineup for tonight’s game against the Los Angeles Dodgers due to a hand injury. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Jorge Polanco, who will play shortstop and bat seventh, sliding Eduardo Escobar over to the hot corner to replace Sano defensively. This lineup change will bump Escobar up to the fourth spot in the order and slide Max Kepler up one position to the six-hole. However, the remainder of the Twins previously confirmed lineup does remain unchanged.
As reported by: Phil Miller
Jhoulys Chacin scratched Tuesday; Kyle Lloyd to start in his place
This is good news for the Mets bats, but they still don’t become an overly appealing team target. Chacin is now expected to start on Wednesday after his back had tightened up on him yesterday, so we should still see the right-hander take the hill during this series.
As reported by: Anthony DiComo
Arizona (5.78) leapfrogs Texas (5.67) to for top implied run line
Arizona is up a slate high 0.29 runs from early this afternoon and 0.63 runs total since open to overtake Texas for the top implied run line tonight. Mike Foltynewicz has handled RHBs well (.305 wOBA since last season), but the RH Diamondbacks are elite bats in the middle of the order, while LHBs have hammered him for a .351 wOBA since the start of last year. Throw in a highly positive run environment and it should be no surprise that the Diamondbacks now have the highest run line tonight. Atlanta is the only other team with a significant upwards move this afternoon (4.51 to 4.72), so the money seems to be pouring in on the over in this game. Freddie Freeman (199 wRC+, .395 ISO vs RHP this season) can even be paired with an Arizona stack. Players can track run line movement for all teams on the Vegas Odds page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Freddie Freeman Bryce Harper & Giancarlo Stanton expected to be popular on a well distributed slate
On a slate without any strong standout offenses or arms, no particular team is expected to dominate ownership tonight. Giancarlo Stanton with three HRs against Cole Hamels and a meeting in hot and humid Texas tonight makes sense as one of the most popular bats on the slate. He has four HRs over the last week with a 55.6 Hard% and Hamels is coming off of a start in which he allowed three HRs. Bryce Harper is another top projected bat tonight and also red hot (295 wRC+, 57.1 Hard% last seven days). He’s expected to be nearly as popular. With no overwhelmingly popular bats on the slate fading particularly popular bats may not be a huge area of concern for players tonight. It’s interesting to see no pitcher projected for more than 25% ownership on DraftKings (15% on FanDuel) tonight with that being Charlie Morton. Kenta Maeda, Madison Bumgarner and Jordan Montgomery are other arms expected to be strongly considered though it’s interesting to see the top strikeout rates on the slate (Luis Castillo and Mike Clevinger) potentially without much support. Felix Hernandez is coming off his best start of the season, has a 25.8 K% over the last month, and is facing another struggling offense at home tonight, but is expected to get minimal support.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Giancarlo Stanton, Charlie Morton, Luis Castillo, Mike Clevinger, Kenta Maeda, Madison Bumgarner, Jordan Montgomery, Felix Hernandez Only one game with a chance of rain in the evening forecast
A light weather report is a good weather report and Kevin mentions only one game with even a chance of rain in Philadelphia (vs Houston), the chances of a delay being unlikely. Players can read the report and view conditions for all games on the Weather page and be sure to follow Kevin on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page Lucas Duda (138 wRC+, .302 ISO vs RHP) has a tendency to mash where Jhoulys Chacin often makes mistakes
The Mets have the third best sOPS+ (123) against ground ball pitchers (Baseball-Reference) and Jhoulys Chacin has a 52.9 GB% this year, but he’s also allowed just 27.5% of contact above 95 mph. Michael Conforto, Yoenis Cespedes, and Lucas Duda all exceed a 150 sOPS+ against ground ballers with Asdrubal Cabrera at 149. Duda may be particularly interesting because he has homered twice in 9 PAs against Chacin with a 99.5 mph aEV on four BBEs. Brooks Baseball has Chacin attacking LHBs with a five pitch mix, most of which Duda (138 wRC+, .302 ISO vs RHP this year) handles well according to PitchIQ, the exception being a change-up Chacin utilizes just 11% of the time (Brooks). Chacin has had a tendency to leave too many pitches (8.9%) on the outer middle of the plate, which potentially accounts for the 15 HRs he’s allowed this year despite the quality contact management overall. That outer middle also happens to be where Duda does the most damage. Conforto’s (169 wRC+, .312 ISO vs RHP this season) issue has been chasing pitches out of the zone when he’s struggled, which has not been the case recently (239 wRC+ over the last week). He handles most areas of over the plate well and only really struggles against well placed breaking balls that dive out of the zone. PitchIQ has him stronger against sliders than curveballs though and Chacin generally throws twice as many sliders (21%) as curves (10%) vs LHBs.
As reported by: PitchIQ Other tagged players: Jhoulys Chacin, Yoenis Cespedes, Michael Conforto Luis Castillo has the highest K (29.5%) and GB (55.7%) rates on the slate; Yankees worst vs GB pitchers
Luis Castillo not only has the highest strikeout rate on the slate (29.5%), but also the highest ground ball rate (55.7%). While many players may rightfully fear a HR prone arm (seven in six starts) in Yankee Stadium (Yankees 120 wRC+ & 19.8 HR/FB at home, 116 wRC+ vs RHP), they are also the worst offense in the league against GB pitchers according to Baseball-Reference (76 sOPS+). Of players with at least 10 PAs, only Aaron Judge (168 sOPS+), because who else, and Matt Holliday (116 sOPS+) are above league average against worm burners and even they only have three HRs a piece. As a team, the Yankees have just 12 HRs (tied for second least) against pitchers BR classifies as ground ball pitchers.
As reported by: Baseball-Reference GB/FB Team Splits Other tagged players: Aaron Judge, Matt Holliday Bryce Harper, Aaron Judge top projected bats tonight, LH Brewers top DK values
Considering the inability to find elite arms or pitchers players need to target on tonight’s slate, it’s not much of a surprise that no team doubles up on top nine players via the RotoGrinders Player Projections. The red hot Bryce Harper is the top overall bat with Aaron Judge number two on either site with Travis Shaw, Freddie Freeman and Jose Altuve mixing in behind them. Jake Lamb, Cody Bellinger, Mike Trout and Giancarlo Stanton round out an All Star top nine. On a point per dollar basis, Shaw (2.5 Pt/$/K) and Eric Thames (2.47 Pt/$/K) project as top values among those with at least seven projected total points, even though Edwin Jackson has exhibited a reverse split since last season. Freeman is a top value on FanDuel (3.78 Pt/$/K) in Arizona against Taijuan Walker (LHBs .333 wOBA, 33 Hard% this year).
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Aaron Judge, Travis Shaw, Eric Thames, Freddie Freeman, Jose Altuve, Jake Lamb, Cody Bellinger, Mike Trout, Giancarlo Stanton Rajai Davis in for Jaycob Brugman, Chapman and Maxwell flipped
The original Oakland lineup listed Bruce Maxwell, Matt Chapman and Jaycob Brugman as the bottom three in the order. While not technically calling it a scratch, the Athletics have amended the lineup to have Chapman and Maxwell flip spots and insert Rajai Davis into the ninth spot for Jaycob Brugman, who appears to be dealing with some neck soreness.
As reported by: Susan Slusser Other tagged players: Jaycob Brugman, Matt Chapman, Bruce Maxwell