DFS Alerts

Top Projected Value on the Board Costs Less than $9K

Very few of the most expensive pitchers project as top of the board values on Monday night. That certainly doesn’t mean that every top of the board value is rosterable on single pitcher sites. For instance, the Tigers are so bad against RHP (68 wRC+, 24.1 K%, 7.1 HR/FB) that Aaron Sanchez projects as the fourth best FanDuel value ($6K), but nobody in their right mind is using him (though sometimes it takes an “unright” mind to win a GPP). The top projected value on either site is within $200 of $8.5K on either site. Mike Clevinger’s 24 K% (16.2 K-BB%) may not be up to pre-injury standards, but he finally seems to be hitting a grove, completing six innings in four of his last five starts and suppressing hard contact (86.7 mph EV, 6.0% Barrels/BBE, 34.9% 95+ mph EV) with a 3.38 ERA that’s below, but within half a run of all estimators. In a favorable park with moderately hitter friendly weather, but not enough to pull it out of negative run environment status, Clevinger has a strong run prevention matchup against the Rockies (86 wRC+, 21.5 K% vs RHP). He is the type of pitcher players can use on a single pitcher site.

The pitchers projecting for the second and third most value on either site are a bit more volatile, though cheaper. Domingo German was lit up in Houston in his first start, but did strikeout out seven of 21 Mets in his second, though still was unable to complete five innings. That’s a tough one-two punch to measure German against, but his early numbers look like what they usually have with the ability to miss some bats (23.1 K%, 11.4 SwStr%) with some contact profile issues (11.5% Barrels/BBE). He gets a park downgrade with some hitter friendly weather in the Bronx tonight in what’s not a favorable matchup either (Mariners 104 wRC+, 22.5 K% vs RHP). However, German Is cheap ($6.5K or less), while the Mariners are struggling (77 wRC+ last seven days) and without Julio Rodriguez.

Although Michael Kopech threw 5.1 shutout innings at Coors last time, it’s been five starts since he’s completed six innings, with his strikeout rate dropping to a league average 21.4%. That wouldn’t be terrible if he didn’t have a 12.3 BB%, 34.3 GB% and 90 mph EV too. A .226 BABIP and 78.9 LOB% have been responsible for a 3.16 ERA more than half a run below estimators with only his xERA (3.81) below four. More significantly hitter friendly weather in Chicago against a Kansas City offense with a 91 wRC+ and 21.9 K% vs RHP makes him a high risk play. The Royals recently got Sal Perez back, though Bobby Witt Jr. left yesterday’s game with an injury and Andrew Benintendi is gone.

If you’re looking for a dirt cheap SP2 DK punt, Antonio Senzatela’s 18.1 K% over his last seven starts is more than double what it was before that and he gets a massive park upgrade in San Diego (Padres 97 wRC+, 22 K% vs RHP). Spenser Watkins has a 1.92 ERA, 2.62 FIP and 4.12 xFIP in five starts back from the IL. Believe it or not, all of those numbers are significant improvements on his season numbers (4.03 ERA, 4.45 FIP, 5.05 xFIP). An 18.6 K% and 14.2 K-BB% over this five starts span are also stark improvements to 13.8% and 5.9% season rates and that’s basically been the difference. Watkins also throws about 65% cutters and four-seamers, two of the pitchers the Texas offense (94 wRC+, 23.5 K% vs RHP) performs worst against. Both he and Senzatela are less than $6K on DraftKings.

Top of the Board Pitcher Facing Offense That Struggles Against Sliders

The Monday night slate to kick off the week includes just nine games, but four $10K pitchers (just one on DraftKings) with one more above $9K on both sites. Max Scherzer has a 35.7 K% and 17.2 SwStr% through five July starts, walking just four, while allowing just five runs. He’s failed to produce a Quality Start in just three of his 13 starts and has missed completing six innings in 11 straight starts by only a single out. With a 27.9 K-BB% (79.7 Z-Contact%), Scherzer would probably be a Cy Young contender had he avoided a month on the IL. While his contact profile includes 10.9% Barrels/BBE, that’s more a function of his ground ball rate (27.9%) than the amount of hard contact he’s allowed (34.2% 95+ mph EV). A 3.13 xERA is the highest of his estimators, which run as low as a 2.50 FIP. Just seven of 21 barrels have left the yard. The Nationals (93 wRC+ vs RHP) don’t strike out much (19.7% vs RHP), but are the second worst slider hitter team in the majors this year (-0.9 wSL/C) and Scherzer has a pretty nasty one (21.9%, -3.6 RV/100, 51.4 Whiff%). That sets up this matchup very nicely for Scherzer despite the park downgrade and hitter friendly weather (which appears to be the case in every open air stadium tonight). Scherzer is the most expensive pitcher on either site and the top projected one. The high price tag pushes him to the latter half of the top 10 pitching values on either site. To find out who the top pivots off Scherzer are tonight, check out Monday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Ke’Bryan Hayes (knee) scratched Sunday

Owen Miller scratched Sunday

Owen Miller scratched Sunday

David Peralta (trade) scratched Saturday

David Peralta (trade) scratched Saturday

Erick Fedde (undisclosed) scratched Saturday; Paolo Espino will start in his place

Erick Fedde (undisclosed) scratched Saturday; Paolo Espino will start in his place

Josh Naylor (ankle) scratched Saturday

Josh Naylor (ankle) scratched Saturday

This Stack is Expected to Crush the Slate Once Again

Much as was the case on Thursday, but even with five additional games, it’s a Dodgers’ slate and we’re just paying in it. Although the numbers aren’t quite so dominant on the larger slate, the Dodgers are still the top projected stack in terms of ownership by a decent margin, while smashing the slate in about 20% of simulations, which is 50% more often than the Yankees, who do so at the second highest rate. The stack that projects for the most value is also the Dodgers, though prices have risen a bit after they truly did smash the Rockies last night. They’re barely ahead of the Yankees on FanDuel, where no stack reaches a double digit value projection (although projections are fluid and updated throughout the day). They do separate a bit more from the rest of the board on DraftKings. It’s probably no secret that the Dodgers rate as a top stack tonight, but they are not the top rated stack on either site currently. To find out who is and why that may be, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Cheap RHBs May Be Top Values Against Otherwise Solid Lefty

It may not be as easy to stack Dodgers tonight as it was last night, after they got into position player pitching territory, but Jake Lamb (121 wRC+, .216 ISO vs RHP this year) is still the top projected value on the board for either site ($2.6K or less). While he is the only Dodger projected for top 10 value on DraftKings, he’s joined by Will Smith (116 wRC+, .190 ISO) at $3.4K and Max Muncy (88 wRC+, .130 ISO) at $2.9K as top five projected FanDuel values. Chad Kuhl’s sinker is being thrown 42.4% of the time and being shelled (1.2 RV/100, wOBA & xwOBA above .400). The Dodgers are a top five offense against heaters (0.49 wFB/C). LHBs (.366 wOBA, .357 xwOBA) have been much better than RHBs (.296 wOBA, .301 xwOBA) against Kuhl this year.

Jose Quintana has pitched well this year (13.6 K-BB% with non-FIP estimators ranging from a 3.77 xFIP to a 4.44 xERA), but strongest offerings have been his four-seam and curveball, two pitches the Phillies have hit really well, while RHBs have a .313 wOBA/.332 xwOBA against him this year. The Phillies have just a 4.14 implied run line that places them in the middle of the board, but players on either site can find a pair of Phillies among the top 10 projected values tonight. Matt Vierling (109 wRC+, .131 ISO vs LHP this year) is the common link between sites, projected to bat leadoff for $2.1K or less. Nick Castellanos (108 wRC+, .095 ISO) is a top FanDuel value ($2.3K). Yairo Munoz (126 wRC+, .200 ISO) is a top DraftKings value for the minimum.

FanDuel projections also like a pair of cheap Cardinals for less than $3K against Anibal Sanchez (93.5 Z-Contact% in two starts) in Washington. Nolan Gorman (108 wRC+, .207 ISO) and Tyler O’Neill (69 wRC+, .118 ISO) should be part of a Cardinal lineup back to full strength after leaving Toronto. DraftKings projections think the best value here is on the other side. Miles Mikolas has just a 15.0 K% (7.7 SwStr%) over five July starts and has become a bit more home run prone than he was earlier in the season, allowing 12 on 18 barrels (8.1%) over his last 12 starts. Batters from either side of the plate are between just a .260 and .306 wOBA and xwOBA against him this season, but Victor Robles (43 wRC+, .062 ISO) is a minimally priced leadoff bat and Yadiel Hernandez (106 wRC+, .168 ISO) costs just $2K as well.

The Slugger Who Breaks Up the Dodger Party Atop Hitter Projections

Basically all you need to know to figure out which offense sits atop the board tonight is that the Dodgers are still at Coors. Even on a 13 game Friday night board, a 7.02 implied run line for the Coors visitors separates from the rest of the board by more than a run. Five more teams reach a five run team total, but only one more above four and a half after that because this board is also loaded with pitching at both the top and in the middle. Much like yesterday, hitter projections are dominated by the Dodgers. Four of the top five projected bats on either site and six of the top 10 are Dodgers. Freddie Freeman (172 wRC+, .228 ISO vs RHP this year) is once again the top projected bat on the board, followed by Mookie Betts (132 wRC+, .251 ISO), Trea Turner (134 wRC+, 164 ISO) and Will Smith (116 wRC+, .190 ISO), Rounding out the top 10 are Max Muncy (88 wRC+, .130 ISO) and Jake Lamb (121 wRC+, .216 ISO). Chad Kuhl has struck out just 12 of his last 85 batters with 10 walks and five home runs, allowing 17 runs over as many innings against marginal offenses (Arizona twice, San Diego and Milwaukee) with only two of those games at Coors. His strikeout rate is down to 16.8% (7.3 K-BB%) with all estimators above, but within half a run of his 4.48 ERA. His sinker is being thrown 42.4% of the time and being shelled (1.2 RV/100, wOBA & xwOBA above .400). The Dodgers are a top five offense against heaters (0.49 wFB/C). LHBs (.366 wOBA, .357 xwOBA) have been much better than RHBs (.296 wOBA, .301 xwOBA) against Kuhl this year.

Considering there are only four spots left after the Dodgers, it’s a bit surprising that the Yankees also land a pair of top 10 projections. They are tied for second on the board with a 5.86 team run total at home against Kris Bubic, who has had a lot of ups and downs this year. Most recently, he’s allowed four runs (two earned) in 14 innings over his last two starts (Blue Jays & Rays), but still has just a 5.8 K-BB% and 47.2% 95+ mph EV on the year. He has just one additional Quality Start this year. Estimators range from a 4.77 xFIP to a 5.71 xERA. Bubic is still throwing his four-seamer (2.3 RV/100, .452 wOBA) 51.8% of the time and the Yankees simply crush fastballs at the second best rate in the league (0.58 wFB/C). Aaron Judge (146 wRC+, .323 ISO vs LHP this year) crushed a middle-middle fastball for the only run of the game last night and breaks up the Dodger party as the third best projected bat on the board tonight. Anthony Rizzo (130 wRC+, .266 ISO) lands among the top 10 as well. LHBs (.495 wOBA, .438 xwOBA) have actually had more success than RHBs (.315 wOBA, .343 xwOBA) against Bubic this year, but it’s a small sample that managers will rarely (if ever) act on. The Yankees don’t even have that capability.

Plenty of Upside and Great Matchups in the Middle of the Board Too

The number of usable pitching options on Friday night doesn’t stop at a loaded top of the board, as there are also several middle of the board arms in strong matchups. Lance Lynn’s 6.43 ERA will make you gasp and while the underlying numbers aren’t up to his usual standard, he’s still striking out batters at a league average rate (21.8%) with great control (5.3 BB%) and just 6.8% Barrels/BBE. The primary drivers behind his poor results are a .333 BABIP (White Sox defense allows a .301 mark at -12 Runs Prevented), 56.4 LOB% and seven of his nine barrels going for home runs (14.9 HR/FB). He should have some positive regression coming with estimators ranging from a 3.77 SIERA to a 4.34 FIP. It’s not great, but it’s better and with a low cost ($7.5K or less) and great matchup (A’s 76 wRC+, 24 K%, 9.1 HR/FB), Lynn projects as the top point per dollar value on either site tonight, as well as the sixth best arm overall.

Blake Snell has struck out 33 of his last 85 batters, but with 14 walks and only going beyond five innings in one of those four starts. He has just three Quality Starts on the season with another elite strikeout rate (29.1%), but also another raging walk rate (13.5%) and 90.2 mph EV. A .313 BABIP and 67.6 LOB% have produced a 4.75 ERA that’s about a run above estimators ranging from a 3.58 FIP to a 4.02 SIERA. Pitching in a pitcher friendly home park, Snell projects as a top five value on either site for $8.5K or less. However, it’s a tough matchup (Twins 107 wRC+, 19.3 K% vs LHP), while his secondaries have been much better than his fastball (0.9 RV/100, wOBA & xwOBA above .400), but he’s throwing the latter much more often 54.4%, which could be trouble against a Minnesota offense that’s third best in the league against the gas (0.52 wFB/C). This is a matchup where Snell may have upside, but certainly carries plenty of risk too.

Despite a 15.5 K-BB% over six starts, Bailey Falter’s transition to the rotation has been less than successful and it’s all in the contact profile. With just a 30.8 GB%, he’s allowed seven home runs on nine barrels (11.5%) and has yet to surpass the fifth inning. He’s been 75% sinker/slider this year and neither currently grades out as a quality pitch by Statcast metrics with wOBAs and xwOBAs above .350. However, virtually everything outside his control is strongly in his favor tonight. He gets a substantial park upgrade with a pitcher friendly umpire and great matchup. The Pirates have an 83 wRC+ with a board high split 26.0 K% vs LHP this year. For less than $7K, Falter is the fourth best projected value on the board and a great SP2 punt on DraftKings ($5.9K).

Jeffrey Springs has missed some time in July and returned to strike out just two of 21 Royals over the weekend, but still registered a double digit SwStr%. Another brilliants Tampa Bay pitching creation, Springs has produced a 20.8 K-BB% with a 13.8 SwStr%, 79.4 Z-Contact% and 29.8 Z-O-Swing%. That means he’s getting lots of whiffs within the strike zone and inducing a good portion of opposing batter swings outside of it. He only has three starts of six innings and his 2.50 ERA is due for some regression (90.2 LOB%, but estimators ranging from a 3.26 xFIP to a 3.62 DRA are nothing to be ashamed of. Cleveland is one of the better offenses against Springs’ best pitches (slider & changeup), but are a far better matchup for LHPs (75 wRC+, 21.2 K%, 6.2 HR/FB). Costing less than $10K on either site, Springs is actually a better projected value on FanDuel.

While Patrick Sandoval has struck out 26 of his last 93 batters to push his season rate up to 24.1%, his walk rate is also up to 10.3%, while he’s allowed 15 runs over his last 19 innings. The good news is that a .491 BABIP (62.3 LOB%) is absurd and he hasn’t allowed a single barrel in his last two starts (6.5% on the year). His 3.64 ERA is still actually below all non-FIP estimators (5.1 HR/FB). Sandoval is a top seven projected value for less than $9K on either site, but the Rangers are no joke against LHP (115 wRC+, 22.7 K%, 18.1 HR/FB), while this is a hitter friendly park with a potentially hitter friendly umpire.

Alex Cobb has just a 16.8 K% over his last seven starts, but with a 2.82 ERA over that span. He has a 4.26 ERA on the season with a 22.8 K% (16.0 K-BB%). Fewer strikeouts and ground balls (61.2% season, 57.5% last seven) resulted in his ERA being cut in half because his BABIP dropped about 100 points. He’s still stranding less than 60% of runners with a .332 BABIP on the year with estimators ranging from a 2.79 xERA to a 3.30 DRA. If all this is confusing us, imagine what it’s doing to him. Cobb is the sixth best projected DraftKings value for $6.7K in a marginal spot against the Cubs (100 wRC+, 22.9 K% vs RHP). He is basically a two pitch pitcher (splitter/sinker more than 40% each). Since the Cubs are great against one pitch (0.5 wFB/C) and terrible against the other (-2.9 wFS/C), he should probably opt to feature the splitter more here.

Lastly, while the upside isn’t very high, Jose Quintana is probably too cheap (within $200 of $7K on either site). He had been coming off back to back subpar road starts before returning to Pittsburgh to shut out the Marlins through seven innings without a walk (four strikeouts) last time out. He’s allowed just seven home runs all season, five of them coming in back to back starts mid-June. While he’s allowed 22 barrels (7.5%), it’s still a better than average contact profile with an 86.9 mph EV. This, in addition to a league average 13.6 K-BB% produces non-FIP estimators ranging from a 3.77 xFIP to a 4.44 xERA, all a bit above his actual ERA (3.70). Quintana’s strongest offering have been his four-seam and curveball, two pitches the Phillies (111 wRC+, 21.7 K% vs LHP) have hit really well, but Pittsburgh greatly suppresses RH power and there’s a pitcher friendly umpire behind the plate. Quintana is currently the seventh best projected FanDuel value.

Friday's Board is Loaded with Expensive Pitching

Friday night’s 13 game slate features six pitchers exceeding $10K on FanDuel, three costing at least that much on either site and one more above $9K on both. Justin Verlander has Quality Starts in eight of his last nine outings, six with at least seven innings pitched, but perhaps the more interesting development is that he’s struck out 27 of his last 77 batters faced. This has pushed Verlander’s season strikeout rate up to 26.1% and with great control, a 21.4 K-BB%. While he’s allowed 7.2% Barrels/BBE, he’s actually generated more popups (25) than barrels (22). Verlander has recently been a bit of an estimator outlier, running another .234 BABIP and 83.0 LOB%, still quite a bit off of his career marks. A 3.01 xERA is the closest estimator to his 1.86 ERA. While he has a difficult matchup (Mariners 105 wRC+, 22.4 K%) in a power friendly, but run negative park with a hitter friendly umpire, Verlander is the most expensive pitcher on either site, but is essentially in a three way tie for the third best projection on the board, Thus, he projects as a mere middle of the board value. For a much more detailed analysis on tonight’s top heavy pitching board, check out Friday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Does Any Stack Come Close to the Dodgers?

With the Dodgers owning a board high 7.11 implied run line, more than a full run higher than any other offense, what GPP players have to wonder is how they can win a tournament without stacking Dodgers or differentiate in other ways? The highest projected ownership? Dodger stacks. More than twice any other team currently (PlateIQ projections are fluid and updated throughout the day). Which stack smashes the slate most often in simulations? Dodgers twice as often as any other offense again. Which stack projects for the most value? This is where we…oh, Dodgers again, but closer to the Giants this time. Jose Urena somehow held the Dodgers to a run over 6.2 innings, despite walking more batters (three) than he struck out (two) in his first start of the season. This time, he takes the mound with a 4.0 K-BB% at Coors against them. The Dodgers are not priced up for Coors and bring a board best 120 wRC+ vs RHP with them. For more on the top rated stacks, including some Dodger alternatives, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

The Bats to Complement Your Dodger Stacks With

You could pay down for pitching tonight, bracing some volatility, but probably still need some value bats if you’re planning on stacking Dodgers or Blue Jays. FanDuel, perhaps more than DraftKings today, fails to price up visiting Coors bats enough. The top projected bats are also the top projected values. In fact, four of the top five projected values and six of the top 10 projected FD values are Dodgers tonight. Freddie Freeman (170 wRC+, .226 ISO vs RHP this year) is the 10th best FanDuel projected value even at $4.3K tonight, but he’s the only one of the six costing more than $2.9K. Jake Lamb (127 wRC+, .234 ISO) is the top projected value on either site, costing no more than $2.2K. Max Muncy (89 wRC+, .133 ISO) is the second best projected FanDuel value and only other Dodger top 10 projected DraftKings value tonight. Jose Urena has struck out just 14 of 100 batters over four starts with 10 walks, but has kept 55.3% of his contact on the ground and stranded 79.5% of runners to keep his ERA an even 3.00 with estimators more than a run higher. He somehow held the Dodgers to a single run over 6.2 innings, despite more walks than strikeouts in his first start. There was a lot of hard contact right at gloves in that game. He’s unlikely to repeat that feat this time around at Coors. The Dodgers offer a fairly balanced lineup, while Urena has a wide split this year (LHBs .389 wOBA, .369 xwOBA – RHBs .215 wOBA, but .329 xwOBA).

FanDuel makes it too easy to stack the dominant offense tonight, so why do anything else? For one, because you can’t stack the entire Dodger lineup. A pair of San Francisco Giants also project as top FanDuel and DraftKings values because they’re facing another LHP tonight. Justin Steele will occasionally spike a high strikeout total (8+ four times), but is generally just a guy who keeps the ball on the ground (51.6%), suppressing barrels (3.5%) and hard contact (34.4% 95+ mph EV) with an average strikeout rate (21.1%), but too many walks (10.7%). He’s only completed six innings five times (all Quality Starts), while all non-FIP estimators (8.6 HR/FB) are within one-third of a run of his 4.02 ERA. Steele throws a lot of four-seamers (56.5%). It’s not a great pitch (0.5 RV/100, .400 wOBA) and the Giants smash fastballs (0.61 wFB/C). RHBs have been about average against Steele (.302 wOBA, .317 xwOBA). As is always the case, right-handed platoon bats are too cheap, due to lack of playing time and the Giants employ more than any other team. Yermin Mercedes (132 wRC+, .219 ISO vs LHP this season) and Austin Slater (151 wRC+, .168 ISO) may carry some pinch hit risk, but are cheap enough to be worth the concern. One of just two LHBs in the projected lineup, Luis Gonzalez (54 wRC+) projects as a potential top DraftKings value at minimum cost as well.

Lastly, Jameson Taillon didn’t get out the third inning in his first post-start break and has been pummeled for 23 earned runs over his last 29.2 innings. Eight of his 11 barrels (11.0%) have left the yard over this span and five of them on the road. LHBs have a .335 wOBA and .343 xwOBA against him, while RHBs have been near average (.306 wOBA, .292 xwOBA). Vinnie Pasquantino (91 wRC+, .139 ISO vs RHP) and Michael A. Taylor (120 wRC+, .101 ISO) cost less than $2.5K on DraftKings.

Separated By More Than a Full Run From the Rest of the Board

Does it seem as if the Dodgers always under-perform when they have the top team run total on the board? What about when they’re at Coors on an eight game slate with a 7.11 implied run line? While there are still two more teams above five (and four more above four and a half), the Dodgers are separated from the rest of the board by more than a full run. Jose Urena has struck out just 14 of 100 batters over four starts with 10 walks, but has kept 55.3% of his contact on the ground and stranded 79.5% of runners to keep his ERA an even 3.00 with estimators more than a run higher. He somehow held the Dodgers to a single run over 6.2 innings, despite more walks than strikeouts in his first start. There was a lot of hard contact right at gloves in that game. He’s unlikely to repeat that feat this time around at Coors. The Dodgers offer a fairly balanced lineup, while Urena has a wide split this year (LHBs .389 wOBA, .369 xwOBA – RHBs .215 wOBA, but .329 xwOBA). The top five projected bats on the board are all Dodgers. Six of the 10 projected bats are Dodgers and eight of the top 15. You get all nine when you stretch it out to 20. Freddie Freeman (170 wRC+, .226 ISO vs RHP this year) is the top projected bat on the board. Cody Bellinger (95 wRC+) and Max Muncy (89 wRC+) are the only two batters in the projected lineup below a 115 wRC+ vs RHP this season. Muncy (.133 ISO) and Gavin Lux (.140) are the only two below a .160 ISO.

While no other offense projects multiple batters among the top 10 (there’s no more room!), the Blue Jays are the next team with two well projected batters. In fact, they should crush Tyler Alexander, who hasn’t started a game since April and has struck out just three of 49 batters in July. He’s thrown 40 pitches in two of his last three relief outings and could probably throw around 60 here, if the Blue Jays let him get that far. His most frequently thrown pitch is a cutter (26.5%) and it’s not a bad one (-1.4 RV/100, 20.7 Whiff%, .326 wOBA, .318 xwOBA), but it’s also a pitch the Blue Jays are third best in the league against (1.1 wFC/C). They have a second best 5.79 team run total, while RHBs have a .315 wOBA and .335 xwOBA against Alexander this year. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (140 wRC+, .200 ISO vs LHP in 2022) and George Springer (87 wRC+, .171 ISO) are your best projecting Toronto bats, but Matt Chapman, Danny Jansen and Teoscar Hernandez all exceed a 120 wRC+ and .220 ISO against southpaws this year.