DFS Alerts

Weather and Homer Prone Pitcher Separates This Offense from the Board

On a 16 team Thursday night slate, the Philadelphia Phillies are the only offense above five implied runs. In fact, they have a 5.51 run team total tonight with temperatures expected to be above 90 degrees with the wind blowing out. While the Phillies separate themselves from the rest of the board by more than half a run, there are four more teams above four and a half runs, separating by nearly half a run from the rest of the board. Kyle Schwarber (134 wRC+, .339 ISO vs RHP this year) is the top projected bat on the board. Paolo Espino has now started nine games without missing many bats (17.3 K%), but excellent control (5.2 BB%). More problematically, he’s allowed multiple home runs in four of his last six starts and has allowed 10.5% Barrels/BBE as a starter. He has a 4.95 ERA over this span, even stranding 79.3% of runners. Espino actually has a reverse split. While LHBs have a .291 wOBA, but .320 xwOBA against him, RHBs have been even better (.360 wOBA, .351 xwOBA). That’s why Rhys Hoskins (108 wRC+, .203 ISO) and Nick Castellanos (84 wRC+, .131 ISO) are also top 10 projected bats tonight. J.T. Realmuto (107 wRC+, .141 ISO) sneaks inside the top 10 on DraftKings, but just misses on FanDuel.

The Houston lineup (4.64) also features a pair of bats projecting among the top five tonight. Zach Plesac’s last four starts have resulted in 17 runs (14 earned) over 18.2 innings, including three home runs on seven barrels (11.5%). It’s really been the contact profile that’s crushed him because his 15.1 K-BB% over this span is a significant improvement over his 11.4% season rate. In fact, his 5.53 xERA on the season is his only estimator more than one-fifth of a run removed from his 4.33 ERA. Plesac’s four-seamer and slider are below average pitches that make up about two-thirds of his arsenal. The Astros are the fourth best fastball hitting team in baseball (0.53 wFB/C) and are top 10 against sliders also. LHBs have absolutely smashed him this year (.361 wOBA, .373 xwOBA). The Houston lineup may only include two of those tonight, but they are Yordan Alvarez (.214 wRC+, .391 ISO) and Kyle Tucker (139 wRC+, .226 ISO).

Players can also find a trio of Rays among the top projected bats tonight. Their 4.84 team run total is second highest on the board in Detroit. Drew Hutchison has struck out just 12.1% of batters (3.6 K-BB%) over seven starts with a 90 mph EV. Even with just three of nine barrels (8.1%) leaving the yard, he has a 4.50 ERA over this span without much disagreement from estimators. Hutchison’s splits are a bit deceptive. LHBs have a .318 wOBA and RHBs a .299 wOBA against him, but RHBs have a .374 xwOBA, while LHBs have a .304 xwOBA. Randy Arozarena (114 wRC+, .170 ISO), Ji-Man Choi (123 wRC+, .167 ISO) and Brandon Lowe (111 wRC+, .168 ISO) project fairly closely together.

Top Projected Pitching Values Appears to be in the Mid-Range Thursday

The first thing worth mentioning is that there aren’t really many great values on the mound. This is not a great pitching slate. In fact, the pitcher currently carrying the top P/$ value projection on FanDuel (and this is certainly subject to change) is Noah Syndergaard in his Philadelphia debut, as they try to reassemble the 2016 Mets rotation. He’s registered a 25.8 K% over his last four starts, pushing his season rate up to 18.9% (12.4 K-BB%), seemingly sacrificing some ground balls (now 44.9%) for strikeouts, though he’s also now allowed 10.1% Barrels/BBE over his last 12 starts. He has just one Quality Start in his last six, while season estimators are above, but within half a run of his 3.83 ERA. While the Nationals have a 94 wRC+ and 19.8 K% vs RHP this year, he’s certainly facing something worse than that tonight. However, the temperatures in Philly tonight are projected to be blistering with the wind blowing out. This will not be a pitcher friendly environment for Thor’s debut at all. None the less, he’s less than $8K on either site and is the third best DraftKings projected value as well. Syndergaard is a top four projected overall arm on this board.

Costing a bit less than Syndergaard on either site, Jeffrey Springs has suffered no drop off since moving into the rotation with a 20.4 K-BB% aligning almost perfectly with his 20.6% season rate. However, a .380 BABIP and 18.2 HR/FB over his last five starts has generated 5.32 ERA with six of his eight barrels (10.4%) leaving the yard. While the contact profile is a bit worse, he has an even more impressive 21.3 K-BB% over this span. In other words, as long as you don’t expect six innings (only three times), he should be fine, though season estimators are all more than half a run above his 2.70 ERA (88.6 LOB%). More problematically, the Tigers have a 104 wRC+ with just a 21.9 K% vs LHP and this is the highest weather risk (as in rain) on the slate. However, Springs is the top projected DraftKings value and second best FanDuel one.

In the same price range, Jose Quintana is the third best projecting FanDuel value. He has only completed six innings five times this year, as the Pirates were conservative with his workload. What he has offered though, is a league average 13.4 K-BB% with an 87.1 mph EV. There is a bit of a gap between his FIP (3.23) and xERA (4.17) with just seven of his 23 barrels (7.4%) leaving the yard (7.0 HR/FB). There may be some regression there, but he’s moving to a power suppressing park with a great defense that should help his .307 BABIP too. He also has a favorable matchup in his first St Louis start. The Pirates have a 100 wRC+ vs LHP, but also a 23.8 K%. They also have a 38 wRC+ and 24.6 K-BB% over the last week overall.

Projecting as a strong DraftKings value, Cole Ragan was once an interesting pitching prospect, but two Tommy John surgeries later, that is no longer the case. Ragan’s upside appears to be backend starter with a 40 Future Value grade (Fangraphs). He has exceeded a 20 K-BB% at both AA and AAA this year. He’s also allowed 10 home runs in 94.2 innings. With the roof closed, as it generally is during the summer months, Texas is a negative run environment. However, the White Sox have a 120 wRC+ and 21.8 K% vs LHP and with Luis Robert expected back tonight, the lineup finally appears to be whole.

Thursday Features More Workhorse Pitchers than High Strikeout Ones

An eight game Thursday night slate includes 25% of the pitching board exceeding $9K on both sites. A 30.5 July K% over four starts has increased Justin Verlander’s season rate to 25.6%, but the real stars of his return this year have been a 4.6 BB% and 20.6 IFFB%. He’s generated more popups (29) than barrels (24) and that’s breaking estimators once again. His 1.81 ERA comes with a .233 BABIP, 83 LOB% and a 2.95 xERA that’s his only estimator below three. He also has one of the best defenses in the league behind him (20 Runs Pevented) and has gone at least seven innings in seven of his last 10 starts. He’s in a tough spot in Cleveland tonight (108 wRC+ with a league low 17.7 K% vs RHP). Cleveland is also the fifth best offense in baseball against sliders (0.13 wSL/C). Verlander throws his 29.4% of the time (-0.7 RV/100). None the less, Verlander is the top projected pitcher on the slate that features more workhorses than high strikeout rates, but as the only pitcher exceeding $10K on both sites, he projects as merely a middle value on either. For more on tonight’s most expensive pitchers, check out Thursday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

The start of Cubs-Cardinals will be delayed Wednesday due to inclement weather

Game update: The start of Cubs-Cardinals will be delayed Wednesday due to inclement weather

Michael Harris (foot) scratched Wednesday

Michael Harris (foot) scratched Wednesday

Even Against Quality Pitching, This Platoon Heavy Lineup Projects as Top Value Stack

The current expectation is for stacking projections to fluctuate even more than usual with pieces being moved all over the major league board until 6 pm ET tonight. However, the current state of things is that no stack on a 13 (or 14 game DK) slate projects for double digit ownership, despite three teams above five implied runs, while the Braves smash the slate most often in simulations, but still at a number below nine percent of the time. The San Francisco Giants project for the most value, as they generally do when facing a left-handed pitcher, even a decent one like Tyler Anderson. Their right-handed platoon heavy lineup is simply too cheap. This is the only column where projections get into into the double digits at this point in time. It seems the trade deadline chaos has even reached the stacking projections tonight. To find out what result these well distributed projections have on Leverage Ratings, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Cheap Bats Haven't Done Much, But Are in Great Spots

With most of the useable pitchers costing a decent amount, players will likely need to slot in a few value bats to complete their lineups. PlateIQ projections for FanDuel (which are fluid and updated throughout the day) suggest that the most value may be found in the Chicago (AL) lineup against Brad Keller. Batters from either side are between a .298 and .320 wOBA and xwOBA against him (essentially league average). The White Sox have a 4.81 team run total, while A.J. Pollock (65 wRC+ vs RHP this year), Yasmani Grandal (40 wRC+) and Yoan Moncada (64 wRC+) have all done very little this year, but have a longer track record of offensive success and all cost less than $2.5K. The sports books are expecting those five runs to come from somewhere.

The Minnesota Twins have one of the highest implied run lines on the board (5.26) and while Jorge Polanco is the only bat among the top 10 overall projections tonight, both Nick Gordon (110 wRC+, .164 ISO vs RHP) and Alex Kirilloff (89 wRC+) project as top of the board FanDuel values against Matt Manning, who hasn’t thrown a major league pitch since April, for $2.3K or less. Gordon is also the top projected DraftKings value on the board for $2.1K, but the only Twin among the top 10.

Tyler Anderson is no easy pickings with RHBs within three points of a .280 wOBA and xwOBA against him this year, but the Giants offer several cheap and potent right-handed platoon bats, who will likely get three shots against the lefty. Austin Slater (155 wRC+, .171 ISO) and Yermin Mercedes (151 wRC+ .171 ISO) have been equally proficient against LHP this year and each cost within $100 of $2.5K on FanDuel.

On DraftKings, Lars Nootbaar (103 wRC+, .202 ISO vs RHP) and Corey Dickerson (84 wRC+, .143 ISO) project as top of the board values against a fairly effective Keegan Thompson (19.4 K-BB% last seven starts). LHBs have just a .293 wOBA and .280 xwOBA against him, but the Cardinals do have a 4.8 run team total and both cost exactly the minimum.

Victor Reyes (103 wRC+ vs RHP) and Akil Baddoo (-3 wRC+) are both top of the board DraftKings values within $100 of the minimum against Chris Archer (LHBs .302 wOBA, .335 xwOBA). Down to a 5.7 K-BB% for the season, all of Archer’s estimators are well more than half a run above his 4.04 ERA.

Michael A. Taylor (121 wRC+ vs RHP) and Vinnie Pasquantino (88 wRC+) are also a pair of top projected DK values within $100 of the minimum against the cheap, but struggling Lucas Giolito, who is still much better against LHBs (.278 xwOBA, .281 xwOBA) than RHBs (.415 wOBA, .363 xwOBA).

Just Two Offenses Feature Multiple Top of the Board Projected Bats

As of now (phrased like that because we may have a pitcher or two, along with several hitters, come off the board in the next few hours) the New York Mets top the board at 5.38 implied runs in Washington against spot starter Cory Abbott. Three more teams exceed a five run team total with nine in total above four and a half runs on Tuesday night. Abbott has appeared in three games in relief for the Nationals, totaling four innings. None of his minor league outings have gone beyond 18 batters either. The nearly 27 year-old has just a 40 Future Value grade (Fangraphs) and a 6.1 K-BB% over 21.1 career major league innings. Tonight’s PlateIQ projections (which are fluid and updated throughout the day) feature a pair of Mets among the top 10 projected bats tonight, both right-handed. Pete Alonso (152 wRC+, .267 ISO vs RHP this year) and Starling Marte (124 wRC+, .156 ISO) are two of four Mets in the projected lineup tonight, who have a wRC+ above 145 over the last 30 days (Daniel Vogelbach and Francisco Lindor are the others).

With an implied run line of 4.75, players can also find a pair of Milwaukee Brewers among the top 10 hitter projections. Bryse Wilson has his first three Quality Starts of the season over his last four starts, the only miss being Coors, though there were three unearned runs in Cincinnati also and he still has just a 14.0 K% over this span. The newfound success has been because he’s only walked two with four barrels during this run, but it’s difficult to measure a pitcher against the Cubs, Reds and Rockies. He still has just a 9.0 K-BB% and 90.9 mph EV on the season with all estimators above four and a half, though below his 6.31 ERA. LHBs have smoked Wilson for a .457 wOBA and .395 xwOBA this season. Christian Yelich (122 wRC+, .155 ISO) and Rowdy Tellez (121 wRC+, .268 ISO) are the top projected Brewers tonight, though Omar Narvaez is the only batter in the projected Milwaukee lineup below a 100 wRC+ vs RHP this year.

Oddly, none of the other teams with team totals above five runs (Twins and Braves) feature multiple top 10 projected bats tonight. Jorge Polanco (145 wRC+, .236 ISO vs RHP) is the best projecting Twin against Matt Manning, who hasn’t thrown a major league pitch since April. Ronald Acuna Jr. (98 wRC+, .116 ISO vs RHP) is the second best projected bat on the board against the Philadelphia bullpen with Nick Nelson opening, but no other Atlanta bats are among the top 10. Aaron Judge (203 wRC+, .383 ISO vs RHP) is the top projected bat on the board, even against the quality arm of Logan Gilbert, who does have a reverse split (RHBs .321 wOBA, .332 xwOBA).

Middle of the Board Contains Some Volatile, High Upside Arms

None of the top three projected values on FanDuel cost more than $9K, while the fourth is less than $10K as well. While we’re dealing with a lot of volatility here, all are reasonable GPP players even on single pitcher sites tonight. Spencer Strider has “only” struck out 10 of his last 40 batters in Washington and Philadelphia. Perhaps as divisional opponents begin to see him multiple times, the strikeout rate will drop, but he’s still sustaining a 36.4 K% (27.6 K-BB%) as a starter with just 5.7% Barrels/BBE, while four of his last six have been Quality Starts. On the season, his 2.91 ERA is above estimators ranging from a 2.17 FIP to a 2.75 xERA. The Phillies (98 wRC+, 22.5 K%, 13.8 HR/FB vs RHP this year) get him again here, so perhaps there should be a bit of caution, but Strider is still too cheap at $8.3K on either site, projecting as a top two value on both.

Lucas Giiolito has allowed just three home runs and four barrels over his last 33 innings, but now has struck out just six of his last 42 batters with four walks. While his 5.14 ERA is a bit fluky (.349 BABIP, 16.1 HR/FB), only his contact neutral estimators are below four (17.2 K-BB%) with 9.7% Barrels/BBE pushing his xERA up to 4.53. And now it looks like in trying to solve one problem, he may have created another. The Royals (91 wRC+, 21.9 K%, 8.2 HR/FB vs RHP) have a team 62 wRC+ over the last week. They’ve gotten Sal Perez back this week, but lost Andrew Benintendi, while Bobby Witt Jr. has been in and out of the lineup. Costing less than $8K now (less than $7K on DK), Giolito projects for similar value to Strider, atop the board.

If Noah Syndergaard isn’t traded (and it sounds like he probably will be, though we’ll mention him here briefly anyway), he’ll be starting this game for the Angels. He’s registered a 25.8 K% over his last four starts, pushing his season rate up to 18.9% (12.4 K-BB%), seemingly sacrificing some ground balls (now 44.9%) for strikeouts, though he’s also now allowed 10.1% Barrels/BBE over his last 12 starts. He has just one Quality Start in his last six, while season estimators are above, but within half a run of his 3.83 ERA. Syndergaard is the third best projected value on either site against the A’s (78 wRC+, 24 K% vs RHP).

Cristian Javier has struck out just nine of his last 42 batters after double digit strikeouts in three of his previous four starts. A 33.6 K% is both extremely impressive and volatile. Only 34.8% of his contact has been at a 95 mph EV or above, but his walk rate is nearing double digits (9.7%). This keeps the majority of his estimators above three with the exception of a 2.79 xERA. He’s only completed six innings four times in 15 starts though. His matchup is complicated. The Red Sox (97 wRC+, 21.7 K% vs RHP) picked up Tommy Pham, but lost Christian Vazquez, while J.D. Martinez is on the block as well and Rafael Devers may be back tonight. Costing $8.7K on DraftKings, but exactly $1K more on FanDuel, Javier actually projects as the higher value on the latter site, though is a top five projected value on either.

Tyler Anderson has five straight Quality Starts with more than one run allowed in just one of them. He’s striking out batters at nearly an average rate this year (20.9%), but with an elite walk rate (4.4%) and contact management (85.4 mph EV, 5.0% Barrels/BBE, 29.5% 95+ mph EV). This generates a 2.99 xERA, which aligns most closely to his 2.61 ERA with additional estimators running as high as a 4.06 DRA. A 79.1 LOB% and 6.8 HR/FB are probably due for some regression. He doesn’t have a ton of upside, but should pitch well against the Giants here (114 wRC+, 23.5 K%) with a price tag within $100 of $9K on either site. Anderson’s changeup (32.5%, -2 RV/100) and cutter (20.8%, -1.4 RV/100) have been his two biggest weapons, while the Giants are a bottom third of the league offense against both pitches.

That’s the good news about the middle of the board tonight. The bad news is that viable lower priced are hard to come by (unless you’re counting Giolito in that group). Kutter Crawford (19.4 K-BB% as a starter) and Alex Wood (17.6 K-BB%) have been effective, but face the Astros and Dodgers, respectively. Adam Wainwright probably is more likely to pitch seven innings than not against the Cubs (99 wRC+, 23.1 K% vs RHP, 52 wRC+ last seven days) for $7.5K on DK and that could give him a reasonable strikeout total even with a rate below 20% on the year. Cole Irvin gets the Angels (82 wRC+, 24.5 K% vs LHP) has five straight Quality Starts with a total of eight runs allowed over 34 innings, but with just a 17.9 K% and .186 BABIP. A 2.4 BB% is the real star of this run, as is a 4.8 BB% the star of his season, though having just 12 of his 33 barrels (9.8%) leaving the yard has helped too. All non-FIP estimators are more than a run and a quarter above his .304 ERA.

Top of the Board Arms in Some of the Best Spots

Virtually everything on a chaotic 13 game slate deserves a disclaimer with the trade deadline pushed back to 6pm ET this year, but we can probably be fairly certain that none of the four $10K pitchers on tonight’s slate, nor the additional one costing more than $9K on either are going to be traded today. Many of them are also in great spots. Corbin Burnes has a 34.7 K% over his last 11 starts with at least eight in all but three of those starts and double digits in three of his last four. He has seven Quality Starts in his last eight and has allowed just four barrels over his last 12. While his 2.31 ERA is more than a quarter run below all estimators, all are below three. It’s a great matchup against the Pirates, who have an 84 wRC+ and board high split 25.5 K% vs RHP this year. They also have a 57 wRC+ over the last week that’s second lowest in the league. Burnes utilizes his cutter 55% of the time (-1.7 RV/100). The Pirates are the worst offense in the league against cutters (-1.56 wFC/C), although some of that is likely due to Burnes’s influence. Burnes is the most expensive pitcher on the board at $11.3K on FanDuel and is essentially tied for the top projection on the board. He is the sixth best DraftKings projected value, but merely a middle of the board one on FanDuel. For more on top of the board arms in great spots tonigh plus one potentially over-priced onet, check out Tuesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Transaction update: Tommy Pham has been traded by the Reds.

Transaction update: Tommy Pham has been traded by the Reds.

Transaction update: Christian Vazquez to be traded to the Astros.

Transaction update: Christian Vazquez to be traded to the Astros.

Christian Vazquez (trade) scratched Monday

Christian Vazquez (trade) scratched Monday

Kris Bryant scratched Monday.

Kris Bryant scratched Monday.

Brad Keller scratched Monday.

Brad Keller scratched Monday.