DFS Alerts

This Leadoff Man Doubles as Top Projected Bat and Value

If you’re planning on stacking the Mets (highest team run total on the board) against Patrick Corbin (batters from either side of the plate above a .370 wOBA this year, though Statcast brings LHBs down a .307 xwOBA), there’s more good news in that current PlateIQ projections (which are subject to change) suggest that beyond some of the top projected bats on the board (Starling Marte, Pete Alonso), players can also find some of the top projected values in the New York lineup tonight. J.D. Davis (103 wRC+, .109 ISO vs LHP this season) is the top projected value on DraftKings for just $2.1K. His .339 xwOBA against southpaws is over 30 points above his actual mark. On FanDuel, Brandon Nimmo (127 wRC+, .176 ISO) doubles as a top projected bat and value ($2.9K), while Mark Canha (92 wRC+, .109 ISO) projects as a slightly better value ($2.5K).

FanDuel projections suggest even more value can be found in the Chicago (AL) lineup. Aside from dominating Detroit, three of Brad Keller’s last four starts have resulted in at least three runs with six innings pitched just once and more walks than strikeouts. While the 7.2 K-BB% is incredibly unimpressive, he does keep the ball on the ground (51.5%), suppressing barrels (5.3%), resulting in a 3.87 xERA that’s his only estimator below a 4.18 ERA, though none extend more than a half run above. Keller’s one positive graded pitch has been his slider (36.6%, -1.2 RV/100), a pitch the White Sox struggle with (-0.53 wSL/C), but batters from either side of the plate have been about average against him this year (between a .298 and .320 wOBA and xwOBA). Yasmani Grandal (42 wRC+), A.J. Pollock (65 wRC+) and Yoan Moncada (63 wRC+) all have better track records than what they’ve done this year and all cost less than $2.5K.

DraftKings projections suggest a pair of left-handed Padres and Royals might be top values tonight. Eric Hosmer (98 wRC+, .129 ISO) has begun to hit the ball better and Nomar Mazara (93 wRC+) costs below $3K too against Antonio Senzatela, whom LHBs have a .379 wOBA and .344 xwOBA against (RHBs have been even better). Hosmer did exit yesterday’s game with a neck issue though, so he may not be available tonight. Although Michael Kopech threw 5.1 shutout innings at Coors last time, it’s been five starts since he’s completed six innings, with his strikeout rate dropping to a league average 21.4%. That wouldn’t be terrible if he didn’t have a 12.3 BB%, 34.3 GB% and 90 mph EV too. A .226 BABIP and 78.9 LOB% have been responsible for a 3.16 ERA more than half a run below estimators with only his xERA (3.81) below four. LHBs have a wOBA and xwOBA within two points of .340 against Kopech this year, while Vinnie Pasquantino (87 wRC+, .120 ISO) and Nick Pratto (113 wRC+, .222 ISO) are both $2.2K or less, but problematically, both are only first base eligible.

Facing This Lefty is Almost Like a Night at Coors

The Rockies are away from Coors tonight, while the Mets are facing Patrick Corbin, which is almost like a night at Coors. They top the board at 5.29 implied runs tonight, slightly ahead of the Yankees at home against Marco Gonzales with the White Sox (Spenser Watkins) and Guardians (Zach Davies) are at five run team totals as well. No other offense reaches the four and a half run mark on Monday night, while Watkins has been much better since returning to the rotation a month ago and there is some rain risk in Cleveland, which essentially makes this a New York slate in terms of hitters. PlateIQ projections (which are fluid and subject to change) agree.

The Mets and Yankees are the only two offenses to boast multiple top 10 projected hitters tonight. Corbin had struck out 15 of his last 51 batters going into his Dodger Stadium start last time out. He faced just 10 batters without a strikeout and has now allowed 21 runs (20 earned) over his last 16.2 innings with 9.7% Barrels/BBE. He’s now up to a 6.49 ERA on the season, which includes a .379 BABIP and 62.3 LOB%, but also a strikeout rate below 20%, 90.7 mph EV and 9.9% Barrels/BBE. Estimators range from a 4.04 xFIP, which claims he may still be a league average pitcher, to a 5.71 xERA, which suggests he no longer has a place in the league. Corbin doesn’t have a single pitch that grades out better than a 1.7 RV/100 (where positive numbers are bad) and the Mets are in the top half of third of the league against every pitch he throws. RHBs have a wOBA and xwOBA within two points of .385 against Corbin this season, while LHBs are dragged down by Statcast (.375 wOBA, .307 xwOBA), but haven’t been bad either. Starling Marte (168 wRC+, .217 ISO vs LHP in 2022) and Pete Alonso (141 wRC+, .244 ISO) are each top five projected bats, while Brandon Nimmo (127 wRC+, .176 ISO) isn’t far behind.

Marco Gonzales has tossed 11 Quality Starts in his last 16 tries, despite an 11.1 K% (3.4 K-BB%) over that span because he’s stranded 80% of runners, while he’s been able to avoid hard contact (87.6 mph EV and barrels (6.3%). That said, a 4.62 xERA is his only estimate within a run of a 3.66 ERA (he allowed eigh unearned runs in April and 10 altogether this season), so we shouldn’t expect his current run suppression success to continue. A soft-tossing, contact prone lefties is in trouble against this Yankee lineup, despite the favorable contact profile. It’s actually LHBs (.359 wOBA, .382 xwOBA) that have had the advantage on Gonzales over RHBs (.329 wOBA, .321 xwOBA) this year. That probably explains that while Aaron Judge (157 wRC+, .343 ISO) is the top projected bat on the board, Anthony Rizzo (137 wRC+, .289 ISO) is also a top five projected value as well with Gleyber Torres (169 wRC+, .351 ISO) rounding out the top 10.

Top Projected Value on the Board Costs Less than $9K

Very few of the most expensive pitchers project as top of the board values on Monday night. That certainly doesn’t mean that every top of the board value is rosterable on single pitcher sites. For instance, the Tigers are so bad against RHP (68 wRC+, 24.1 K%, 7.1 HR/FB) that Aaron Sanchez projects as the fourth best FanDuel value ($6K), but nobody in their right mind is using him (though sometimes it takes an “unright” mind to win a GPP). The top projected value on either site is within $200 of $8.5K on either site. Mike Clevinger’s 24 K% (16.2 K-BB%) may not be up to pre-injury standards, but he finally seems to be hitting a grove, completing six innings in four of his last five starts and suppressing hard contact (86.7 mph EV, 6.0% Barrels/BBE, 34.9% 95+ mph EV) with a 3.38 ERA that’s below, but within half a run of all estimators. In a favorable park with moderately hitter friendly weather, but not enough to pull it out of negative run environment status, Clevinger has a strong run prevention matchup against the Rockies (86 wRC+, 21.5 K% vs RHP). He is the type of pitcher players can use on a single pitcher site.

The pitchers projecting for the second and third most value on either site are a bit more volatile, though cheaper. Domingo German was lit up in Houston in his first start, but did strikeout out seven of 21 Mets in his second, though still was unable to complete five innings. That’s a tough one-two punch to measure German against, but his early numbers look like what they usually have with the ability to miss some bats (23.1 K%, 11.4 SwStr%) with some contact profile issues (11.5% Barrels/BBE). He gets a park downgrade with some hitter friendly weather in the Bronx tonight in what’s not a favorable matchup either (Mariners 104 wRC+, 22.5 K% vs RHP). However, German Is cheap ($6.5K or less), while the Mariners are struggling (77 wRC+ last seven days) and without Julio Rodriguez.

Although Michael Kopech threw 5.1 shutout innings at Coors last time, it’s been five starts since he’s completed six innings, with his strikeout rate dropping to a league average 21.4%. That wouldn’t be terrible if he didn’t have a 12.3 BB%, 34.3 GB% and 90 mph EV too. A .226 BABIP and 78.9 LOB% have been responsible for a 3.16 ERA more than half a run below estimators with only his xERA (3.81) below four. More significantly hitter friendly weather in Chicago against a Kansas City offense with a 91 wRC+ and 21.9 K% vs RHP makes him a high risk play. The Royals recently got Sal Perez back, though Bobby Witt Jr. left yesterday’s game with an injury and Andrew Benintendi is gone.

If you’re looking for a dirt cheap SP2 DK punt, Antonio Senzatela’s 18.1 K% over his last seven starts is more than double what it was before that and he gets a massive park upgrade in San Diego (Padres 97 wRC+, 22 K% vs RHP). Spenser Watkins has a 1.92 ERA, 2.62 FIP and 4.12 xFIP in five starts back from the IL. Believe it or not, all of those numbers are significant improvements on his season numbers (4.03 ERA, 4.45 FIP, 5.05 xFIP). An 18.6 K% and 14.2 K-BB% over this five starts span are also stark improvements to 13.8% and 5.9% season rates and that’s basically been the difference. Watkins also throws about 65% cutters and four-seamers, two of the pitchers the Texas offense (94 wRC+, 23.5 K% vs RHP) performs worst against. Both he and Senzatela are less than $6K on DraftKings.

Top of the Board Pitcher Facing Offense That Struggles Against Sliders

The Monday night slate to kick off the week includes just nine games, but four $10K pitchers (just one on DraftKings) with one more above $9K on both sites. Max Scherzer has a 35.7 K% and 17.2 SwStr% through five July starts, walking just four, while allowing just five runs. He’s failed to produce a Quality Start in just three of his 13 starts and has missed completing six innings in 11 straight starts by only a single out. With a 27.9 K-BB% (79.7 Z-Contact%), Scherzer would probably be a Cy Young contender had he avoided a month on the IL. While his contact profile includes 10.9% Barrels/BBE, that’s more a function of his ground ball rate (27.9%) than the amount of hard contact he’s allowed (34.2% 95+ mph EV). A 3.13 xERA is the highest of his estimators, which run as low as a 2.50 FIP. Just seven of 21 barrels have left the yard. The Nationals (93 wRC+ vs RHP) don’t strike out much (19.7% vs RHP), but are the second worst slider hitter team in the majors this year (-0.9 wSL/C) and Scherzer has a pretty nasty one (21.9%, -3.6 RV/100, 51.4 Whiff%). That sets up this matchup very nicely for Scherzer despite the park downgrade and hitter friendly weather (which appears to be the case in every open air stadium tonight). Scherzer is the most expensive pitcher on either site and the top projected one. The high price tag pushes him to the latter half of the top 10 pitching values on either site. To find out who the top pivots off Scherzer are tonight, check out Monday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Ke’Bryan Hayes (knee) scratched Sunday

Owen Miller scratched Sunday

Owen Miller scratched Sunday

David Peralta (trade) scratched Saturday

David Peralta (trade) scratched Saturday

Erick Fedde (undisclosed) scratched Saturday; Paolo Espino will start in his place

Erick Fedde (undisclosed) scratched Saturday; Paolo Espino will start in his place

Josh Naylor (ankle) scratched Saturday

Josh Naylor (ankle) scratched Saturday

This Stack is Expected to Crush the Slate Once Again

Much as was the case on Thursday, but even with five additional games, it’s a Dodgers’ slate and we’re just paying in it. Although the numbers aren’t quite so dominant on the larger slate, the Dodgers are still the top projected stack in terms of ownership by a decent margin, while smashing the slate in about 20% of simulations, which is 50% more often than the Yankees, who do so at the second highest rate. The stack that projects for the most value is also the Dodgers, though prices have risen a bit after they truly did smash the Rockies last night. They’re barely ahead of the Yankees on FanDuel, where no stack reaches a double digit value projection (although projections are fluid and updated throughout the day). They do separate a bit more from the rest of the board on DraftKings. It’s probably no secret that the Dodgers rate as a top stack tonight, but they are not the top rated stack on either site currently. To find out who is and why that may be, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Cheap RHBs May Be Top Values Against Otherwise Solid Lefty

It may not be as easy to stack Dodgers tonight as it was last night, after they got into position player pitching territory, but Jake Lamb (121 wRC+, .216 ISO vs RHP this year) is still the top projected value on the board for either site ($2.6K or less). While he is the only Dodger projected for top 10 value on DraftKings, he’s joined by Will Smith (116 wRC+, .190 ISO) at $3.4K and Max Muncy (88 wRC+, .130 ISO) at $2.9K as top five projected FanDuel values. Chad Kuhl’s sinker is being thrown 42.4% of the time and being shelled (1.2 RV/100, wOBA & xwOBA above .400). The Dodgers are a top five offense against heaters (0.49 wFB/C). LHBs (.366 wOBA, .357 xwOBA) have been much better than RHBs (.296 wOBA, .301 xwOBA) against Kuhl this year.

Jose Quintana has pitched well this year (13.6 K-BB% with non-FIP estimators ranging from a 3.77 xFIP to a 4.44 xERA), but strongest offerings have been his four-seam and curveball, two pitches the Phillies have hit really well, while RHBs have a .313 wOBA/.332 xwOBA against him this year. The Phillies have just a 4.14 implied run line that places them in the middle of the board, but players on either site can find a pair of Phillies among the top 10 projected values tonight. Matt Vierling (109 wRC+, .131 ISO vs LHP this year) is the common link between sites, projected to bat leadoff for $2.1K or less. Nick Castellanos (108 wRC+, .095 ISO) is a top FanDuel value ($2.3K). Yairo Munoz (126 wRC+, .200 ISO) is a top DraftKings value for the minimum.

FanDuel projections also like a pair of cheap Cardinals for less than $3K against Anibal Sanchez (93.5 Z-Contact% in two starts) in Washington. Nolan Gorman (108 wRC+, .207 ISO) and Tyler O’Neill (69 wRC+, .118 ISO) should be part of a Cardinal lineup back to full strength after leaving Toronto. DraftKings projections think the best value here is on the other side. Miles Mikolas has just a 15.0 K% (7.7 SwStr%) over five July starts and has become a bit more home run prone than he was earlier in the season, allowing 12 on 18 barrels (8.1%) over his last 12 starts. Batters from either side of the plate are between just a .260 and .306 wOBA and xwOBA against him this season, but Victor Robles (43 wRC+, .062 ISO) is a minimally priced leadoff bat and Yadiel Hernandez (106 wRC+, .168 ISO) costs just $2K as well.

The Slugger Who Breaks Up the Dodger Party Atop Hitter Projections

Basically all you need to know to figure out which offense sits atop the board tonight is that the Dodgers are still at Coors. Even on a 13 game Friday night board, a 7.02 implied run line for the Coors visitors separates from the rest of the board by more than a run. Five more teams reach a five run team total, but only one more above four and a half after that because this board is also loaded with pitching at both the top and in the middle. Much like yesterday, hitter projections are dominated by the Dodgers. Four of the top five projected bats on either site and six of the top 10 are Dodgers. Freddie Freeman (172 wRC+, .228 ISO vs RHP this year) is once again the top projected bat on the board, followed by Mookie Betts (132 wRC+, .251 ISO), Trea Turner (134 wRC+, 164 ISO) and Will Smith (116 wRC+, .190 ISO), Rounding out the top 10 are Max Muncy (88 wRC+, .130 ISO) and Jake Lamb (121 wRC+, .216 ISO). Chad Kuhl has struck out just 12 of his last 85 batters with 10 walks and five home runs, allowing 17 runs over as many innings against marginal offenses (Arizona twice, San Diego and Milwaukee) with only two of those games at Coors. His strikeout rate is down to 16.8% (7.3 K-BB%) with all estimators above, but within half a run of his 4.48 ERA. His sinker is being thrown 42.4% of the time and being shelled (1.2 RV/100, wOBA & xwOBA above .400). The Dodgers are a top five offense against heaters (0.49 wFB/C). LHBs (.366 wOBA, .357 xwOBA) have been much better than RHBs (.296 wOBA, .301 xwOBA) against Kuhl this year.

Considering there are only four spots left after the Dodgers, it’s a bit surprising that the Yankees also land a pair of top 10 projections. They are tied for second on the board with a 5.86 team run total at home against Kris Bubic, who has had a lot of ups and downs this year. Most recently, he’s allowed four runs (two earned) in 14 innings over his last two starts (Blue Jays & Rays), but still has just a 5.8 K-BB% and 47.2% 95+ mph EV on the year. He has just one additional Quality Start this year. Estimators range from a 4.77 xFIP to a 5.71 xERA. Bubic is still throwing his four-seamer (2.3 RV/100, .452 wOBA) 51.8% of the time and the Yankees simply crush fastballs at the second best rate in the league (0.58 wFB/C). Aaron Judge (146 wRC+, .323 ISO vs LHP this year) crushed a middle-middle fastball for the only run of the game last night and breaks up the Dodger party as the third best projected bat on the board tonight. Anthony Rizzo (130 wRC+, .266 ISO) lands among the top 10 as well. LHBs (.495 wOBA, .438 xwOBA) have actually had more success than RHBs (.315 wOBA, .343 xwOBA) against Bubic this year, but it’s a small sample that managers will rarely (if ever) act on. The Yankees don’t even have that capability.

Plenty of Upside and Great Matchups in the Middle of the Board Too

The number of usable pitching options on Friday night doesn’t stop at a loaded top of the board, as there are also several middle of the board arms in strong matchups. Lance Lynn’s 6.43 ERA will make you gasp and while the underlying numbers aren’t up to his usual standard, he’s still striking out batters at a league average rate (21.8%) with great control (5.3 BB%) and just 6.8% Barrels/BBE. The primary drivers behind his poor results are a .333 BABIP (White Sox defense allows a .301 mark at -12 Runs Prevented), 56.4 LOB% and seven of his nine barrels going for home runs (14.9 HR/FB). He should have some positive regression coming with estimators ranging from a 3.77 SIERA to a 4.34 FIP. It’s not great, but it’s better and with a low cost ($7.5K or less) and great matchup (A’s 76 wRC+, 24 K%, 9.1 HR/FB), Lynn projects as the top point per dollar value on either site tonight, as well as the sixth best arm overall.

Blake Snell has struck out 33 of his last 85 batters, but with 14 walks and only going beyond five innings in one of those four starts. He has just three Quality Starts on the season with another elite strikeout rate (29.1%), but also another raging walk rate (13.5%) and 90.2 mph EV. A .313 BABIP and 67.6 LOB% have produced a 4.75 ERA that’s about a run above estimators ranging from a 3.58 FIP to a 4.02 SIERA. Pitching in a pitcher friendly home park, Snell projects as a top five value on either site for $8.5K or less. However, it’s a tough matchup (Twins 107 wRC+, 19.3 K% vs LHP), while his secondaries have been much better than his fastball (0.9 RV/100, wOBA & xwOBA above .400), but he’s throwing the latter much more often 54.4%, which could be trouble against a Minnesota offense that’s third best in the league against the gas (0.52 wFB/C). This is a matchup where Snell may have upside, but certainly carries plenty of risk too.

Despite a 15.5 K-BB% over six starts, Bailey Falter’s transition to the rotation has been less than successful and it’s all in the contact profile. With just a 30.8 GB%, he’s allowed seven home runs on nine barrels (11.5%) and has yet to surpass the fifth inning. He’s been 75% sinker/slider this year and neither currently grades out as a quality pitch by Statcast metrics with wOBAs and xwOBAs above .350. However, virtually everything outside his control is strongly in his favor tonight. He gets a substantial park upgrade with a pitcher friendly umpire and great matchup. The Pirates have an 83 wRC+ with a board high split 26.0 K% vs LHP this year. For less than $7K, Falter is the fourth best projected value on the board and a great SP2 punt on DraftKings ($5.9K).

Jeffrey Springs has missed some time in July and returned to strike out just two of 21 Royals over the weekend, but still registered a double digit SwStr%. Another brilliants Tampa Bay pitching creation, Springs has produced a 20.8 K-BB% with a 13.8 SwStr%, 79.4 Z-Contact% and 29.8 Z-O-Swing%. That means he’s getting lots of whiffs within the strike zone and inducing a good portion of opposing batter swings outside of it. He only has three starts of six innings and his 2.50 ERA is due for some regression (90.2 LOB%, but estimators ranging from a 3.26 xFIP to a 3.62 DRA are nothing to be ashamed of. Cleveland is one of the better offenses against Springs’ best pitches (slider & changeup), but are a far better matchup for LHPs (75 wRC+, 21.2 K%, 6.2 HR/FB). Costing less than $10K on either site, Springs is actually a better projected value on FanDuel.

While Patrick Sandoval has struck out 26 of his last 93 batters to push his season rate up to 24.1%, his walk rate is also up to 10.3%, while he’s allowed 15 runs over his last 19 innings. The good news is that a .491 BABIP (62.3 LOB%) is absurd and he hasn’t allowed a single barrel in his last two starts (6.5% on the year). His 3.64 ERA is still actually below all non-FIP estimators (5.1 HR/FB). Sandoval is a top seven projected value for less than $9K on either site, but the Rangers are no joke against LHP (115 wRC+, 22.7 K%, 18.1 HR/FB), while this is a hitter friendly park with a potentially hitter friendly umpire.

Alex Cobb has just a 16.8 K% over his last seven starts, but with a 2.82 ERA over that span. He has a 4.26 ERA on the season with a 22.8 K% (16.0 K-BB%). Fewer strikeouts and ground balls (61.2% season, 57.5% last seven) resulted in his ERA being cut in half because his BABIP dropped about 100 points. He’s still stranding less than 60% of runners with a .332 BABIP on the year with estimators ranging from a 2.79 xERA to a 3.30 DRA. If all this is confusing us, imagine what it’s doing to him. Cobb is the sixth best projected DraftKings value for $6.7K in a marginal spot against the Cubs (100 wRC+, 22.9 K% vs RHP). He is basically a two pitch pitcher (splitter/sinker more than 40% each). Since the Cubs are great against one pitch (0.5 wFB/C) and terrible against the other (-2.9 wFS/C), he should probably opt to feature the splitter more here.

Lastly, while the upside isn’t very high, Jose Quintana is probably too cheap (within $200 of $7K on either site). He had been coming off back to back subpar road starts before returning to Pittsburgh to shut out the Marlins through seven innings without a walk (four strikeouts) last time out. He’s allowed just seven home runs all season, five of them coming in back to back starts mid-June. While he’s allowed 22 barrels (7.5%), it’s still a better than average contact profile with an 86.9 mph EV. This, in addition to a league average 13.6 K-BB% produces non-FIP estimators ranging from a 3.77 xFIP to a 4.44 xERA, all a bit above his actual ERA (3.70). Quintana’s strongest offering have been his four-seam and curveball, two pitches the Phillies (111 wRC+, 21.7 K% vs LHP) have hit really well, but Pittsburgh greatly suppresses RH power and there’s a pitcher friendly umpire behind the plate. Quintana is currently the seventh best projected FanDuel value.

Friday's Board is Loaded with Expensive Pitching

Friday night’s 13 game slate features six pitchers exceeding $10K on FanDuel, three costing at least that much on either site and one more above $9K on both. Justin Verlander has Quality Starts in eight of his last nine outings, six with at least seven innings pitched, but perhaps the more interesting development is that he’s struck out 27 of his last 77 batters faced. This has pushed Verlander’s season strikeout rate up to 26.1% and with great control, a 21.4 K-BB%. While he’s allowed 7.2% Barrels/BBE, he’s actually generated more popups (25) than barrels (22). Verlander has recently been a bit of an estimator outlier, running another .234 BABIP and 83.0 LOB%, still quite a bit off of his career marks. A 3.01 xERA is the closest estimator to his 1.86 ERA. While he has a difficult matchup (Mariners 105 wRC+, 22.4 K%) in a power friendly, but run negative park with a hitter friendly umpire, Verlander is the most expensive pitcher on either site, but is essentially in a three way tie for the third best projection on the board, Thus, he projects as a mere middle of the board value. For a much more detailed analysis on tonight’s top heavy pitching board, check out Friday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Does Any Stack Come Close to the Dodgers?

With the Dodgers owning a board high 7.11 implied run line, more than a full run higher than any other offense, what GPP players have to wonder is how they can win a tournament without stacking Dodgers or differentiate in other ways? The highest projected ownership? Dodger stacks. More than twice any other team currently (PlateIQ projections are fluid and updated throughout the day). Which stack smashes the slate most often in simulations? Dodgers twice as often as any other offense again. Which stack projects for the most value? This is where we…oh, Dodgers again, but closer to the Giants this time. Jose Urena somehow held the Dodgers to a run over 6.2 innings, despite walking more batters (three) than he struck out (two) in his first start of the season. This time, he takes the mound with a 4.0 K-BB% at Coors against them. The Dodgers are not priced up for Coors and bring a board best 120 wRC+ vs RHP with them. For more on the top rated stacks, including some Dodger alternatives, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.