DFS Alerts

Volatile Arms Project as Top Values on Thursday

If you’re looking to pay down for pitching on FanDuel, Alex Wood is probably your primary option. Costing $8.4K on FD and $900 less on DK, he projects as a top three value on either site. Wood has a 30.1 K% over his last five starts, but has only completed six innings once over this span and three times on the season, despite an 18.5 K-BB%, 50.2 GB% and 6.3% Barrels/BBE. We can blame a 4.21 ERA on a .324 BABIP and 68.5 LOB%. A 3.83 DRA is his only estimator within half a run of actual results, but his pitch counts are all over the place. They often reach beyond 90 pitches, but he’s still been unable to complete six innings more consistently. There’s something going on with efficiency here and he’ll need to hit six innings to max out his value on FanDuel. One concern is that opposing hitters have a .345 wOBA against his sinker (46.1%, 0.6 RV/100) and the Cubs (105 wRC+, 23.5 K% vs LHP) have mashed fastballs this year (0.55 wFB/C). Nobody said it was going to be risk free.

Another highly volatile arm with a wide range of potential outcomes, who projects as a top value tonight is Yusei Kikuchi. Hewalked five of 14 Athletics without striking out a single one on July 5th and then hit the IL with a neck issue, but looked great in a five innings rehab start. Kikuchi still has a 25.1 K%, but just three outings of six innings this year (all Quality Starts), a 13.9 BB% and 21.9 HR/FB with only 14 of 28 barrels (16.1%) leaving the yard, averaging a 92.8 mph EV and 51.1% of his contact at least 95 mph off the bat. Contact inclusive estimators (FIP, xERA) are more than half a run above his 5.12 ERA, while contact neutral ones are more than half a run below. Kikuchi has just one above average pitch this year and it’s a changeup (-1.3 RV/100) that he throws just 13.1% of the time. Thankfully, the Tigers are near the bottom of the league against almost every pitch, but they’ve been pretty good against LHP (105 wRC+, 21.6 K%). Kikuchi is within $200 of $7.5K on either site.

Spencer Howard projects well from a point per dollar value merely because the Angels have a board/league high 27 K% vs RHP. He has struck out nine of 88 batters (5.2 SwStr%) with 10 walks since returning to the majors and has allowed four home runs and 12 runs (11 earned) in 18.2 innings. More than half of those innings (9.2) have been against Oakland. He has double digit walk (10%) and barrel rates (12.6%) on the season as well. Howard’s primary secondary pitch is an awful cutter (37.8%, .473 wOBA), which is a pitch the Angels have been second best in the league against (1.65 wFC/C), though they struggle against standard fastballs (-0.49 wFB/C). It’s tough to feel good about Howard in this or any spot, but he’s nearly free on DraftKings.

Kutter Crawford is one of the few things working out in Boston these days. Over five starts and one long relief outing, he’s registered an impressive 21.1 K-BB% with a 3.16 ERA and estimators within half a run. His last two starts were his first Quality Starts, but by the vaguest of definitions (3 ER in 6 IP each). His work in the rotation has actually been a lot better than it had been in the pen earlier in the year. Kutter likes to throw a…get this…cutter 30.2% of the time (0.4 RV/100, .347 wOBA, 23.4 Whiff%), while this is a pitch Cleveland has struggled with (-1.22 wFC/C). However, the Guardians have a 108 wRC+ and board/league low 17.5 K% vs RHP, while Crawford will have to deal with the hitter friendly environment and weather of Fenway with some rain risk in this game. Costing $7.1K on FanDuel and just $6.1K on DraftKings though, he projects as one of the better pitching values on the board.

Top Pitcher Facing an Offense with a 44 wRC+ Since the Break

Strikeouts are down a bit (22.8% last five starts) and Zack Wheeler has had a couple of blowup games over his last six, but he’s still produced 12 Quality Starts in his last 15 tries. With a 21.2 K-BB% and great contact profile (85.9 mph EV, 6.3% Barrels/BBE, 33.5% 95+ mph EV), Wheeler’s 2.78 ERA lines up perfectly with his 2.77 FIP. It’s below, but within one-third of a run of all estimators. The Pittsburgh offense is fairly atrocious against every pitch in Wheeler’s arsenal and have an 85 wRC+ (25.4 K%) vs RHP overall with a 44 wRC+ since the break. Wheeler is not the most expensive pitcher on FanDuel, but the only one to reach a $10K price point on both sites and is the most expensive DraftKings arm. He is the second best projected pitcher on the board in this favorable spot, despite the hitter friendly weather, but projects just outside the top five pitching values on the slate. For tonight’s top projected arm and value plus more on a pair of potentially over-priced pitchers, check out Thursday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Cheap Right-Handed Platoon Bats Project As Highest Value Stack

While the two Coors offenses top the slate at 5.5 implied runs, there’s really a cluster of five teams with team run totals exceeding five tonight. The result of this cluster is that no stack really dominates ownership projections tonight with the White Sox (visiting Coors) are the only one to reach even a double digit ownership expectation and only on DraftKings tonight. However, we find a non-Coors stack sitting in the Smash% driver’s seat tonight and it’s the same stack that failed so many of us last night…the Dodgers. Surprisingly, the gap between them and the rest of the board is larger today than yesterday, when they were half a run removed from the rest of the board. Dodger stacks smash more than 13% of simulations with no other stack doing so more than 8.5% of the time. The Giants were the top value stack yesterday and they retain that projection with the same pitcher tonight because Tyler Gilbert was scratched and move back a start. Due to their lack of playing time, some of the better platoon RHBs are always underpriced and since the Giants platoon more than any other offense, you’ll often find them projecting for great value against all but the top lefties in the league. The Dodgers rewarded backers with only a single run last night, but were merely a marginally rated stack. Do they project a better Leverage Rating on a more clustered top of the board tonight? Check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog to find out.

Finding Top Projected Values in Among Top Offenses

It’s pretty obvious where PlateIQ projections for Fanduel think all the value lies tonight and that’s distinctly in three lineups featuring multiple top 10 projected bats. While Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts are top of the board projected bats against the talented (32.7 K% L4 starts), but still very barrel prone (12%) Josiah Gray, Max Muncy (92 wRC+, .136 ISO vs RHP this year) and Jake Lamb (147 wRC+, .262 ISO) are the top projected FD values for less than $2.5K. Lamb is the second best projected value on either site for $2.2K. LHBs have a .403 wOBA and .385 xwOBA against Gray this year.

The two Dodgers are followed by a pair of San Francisco right-handed platoon bats. Tyler Gilbert was pushed back a day has struck out just four of 56 batters in July. He’s allowed 13 barrels (12.9%) in 30.1 innings on the season, creating a 6.74 xERA. He doesn’t have an estimator below five. RHBs have a .359 wOBA and .431 xwOBA against him this year. Yermin Mercedes (147 wRC+, .233 ISO vs LHP this year) and Austin Slater (153 wRC+, .172 ISO) are top five projected values on FanDuel for $2.5K or less, while Darin Ruff (162 wRC+, .294 ISO) isn’t far behind for $2.6K. Mercedes is also the top projected DraftKings value on the board.

The top 10 FanDuel projected values rounds out with a trio of Red Sox against what appears to be Brian Shaw followed by Kirk McCarty in a bulk role. He’s struck out eight of the 58 batters he’s faced with six walks and as many home runs. Just five barrels, but that’s still 11.4% of this contact. His best estimator is a 5.36 SIERA. Jaren Duran (17 wRC+ vs LHP this year), Bobby Dalbec (125 wRC+, .183 ISO) and Yolmer Sanchez (106 wRC+ since being called up) all cost $2.5K FD or less. Jeter Downs (2 wRC+ vs LHP) joins Sanchez as a top projected DraftKings value, costing the minimum.

The top 10 projected values on DraftKings also rounds out with a pair of Guardians, facing Josh Winckowski (LHBs .357 wOBA, .348 xwOBA) at Fenway. Nolan Jones (135 wRC+, .150 ISO) is still less than $2.5K. Myles Straw (69 wRC+) can steal a base and costs just $100 above the minimum.

Also costing less than $2.5K, Michael A. Taylor (109 wRC+, .179 ISO vs LHP) and Vinnie Pasquantino (71 wRC+) project as top values against Jose Suarez. LHBs have hit him well (.337 wOBA, .310 xwOBA), but RHBs even better (.372 wOBA, .344 xwOBA).

This Pitcher's Reverse Split Could Mean Trouble Against Powerhouse Offense

Last night, the top two offenses on the board in terms of team run totals (Dodgers & Brewers) mustered a combined single run. While the pitching is much stronger at the top of the board tonight, Coors is back on the slate, hosting the top two offenses on the board at 5.5 implied runs each with three more teams above the five run mark and five additional teams (for a total of 10) exceeding four and a half run team totals. Are you ready for the mind-blower? Tim Anderson (103 wRC+, .089 ISO vs RHP this year) is the only Coors bat among the top 10 projections tonight and only on DraftKings. The Dodgers (5.29 team run total) are back at the top tonight with Freddie Freeman (170 wRC+, .230 ISO) the top projected bat on the board against the talented (32.7 K% L4 starts), but still very barrel prone (12%) Josiah Gray (LHBs .403 wOBA, .385 xwOBA this year). RHBs haven’t had as much success against him (.272 wOBA, .288 xwOBA), but Mookie Betts (130 wRC+, .250 ISO) is a top five projected bat as well.

The Toronto Blue Jays should have a trio of top projected bats in their lineup against Andre Pallante, a contact prone, extreme ground ball pitcher. Since transitioning to a starting role, he’s recorded just a 15.2 K% (6.8 K-BB%) with a 64.1 GB%. He’s allowed six home runs, but just five barrels (3.4%). His season estimators run a bit higher than his 3.34 ERA, ranging from a 3.75 xFIP to a 4.49 DRA with an 82.6 LOB%. The Blue Jays are tied for the top implied run line outside Coors tonight (5.44) and Pallante has exhibited a reverse split (.365 wOBA, .328 xwOBA, though still with a 61.2 GB%), which is bad news for him in Toronto. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (132 wRC+, .213 ISO), George Springer (132 wRC+, 230 ISO) and Alejandro Kirk (159 wRC+, .178 ISO) all project near the top of the board tonight. Despite Boston with a 5.42 run team total as well, no other offense features multiple top 10 projected bats tonight.

Tuesday's Board Loaded with Mid-Board Pitching Value

Spencer Strider has a board high 37.9 K% (37.4% since entering the rotation) and is coming off his first truly poor outing, striking out just four of 18 Nationals, while allowing five runs. He’s generally excelled at contact management too with just an 87.2 mph EV and 5.6% Barrels/BBE as a starter as well. All of Strider’s estimators are more than a quarter run below his 3.03 ERA on the season. The Phillies have just a 98 wRC+ and 22.8 K%, but also a 14.1 HR/FB and conditions are expected to be significantly hitter friendly in Philly tonight (though not as obnoxious as last night). Perhaps that’s why Strider’s cost is still within $300 of $9K on either site. He’s “merely” the third best projected arm on the slate, but top projected value on either site.

Ironically, a lot of the top projected values cost between $8K and $9.5K on FanDuel tonight and may be viable even on a single pitcher site. (Heads up for those playing in the Single Entry Series this week.) Mike Clevinger, George Kirby and Jose Berrios are all top seven projected FD values. Clevinger has done a decent enough job, striking out nearly a quarter of the batters he’s faced (24.7%) with a 17.0 K-BB%, while limiting the hard contact (87.4 mph EV, 6.2% Barrels/BBE). He’s finally starting to pitch deeper into games, completing six innings in three of his last four too with Coors being the only exception. His 3.50 ERA is within half a run of all estimators, though most are slightly above. Clevinger’s four-seamer has been especially successful (35.5%, -2.4 RV/100, .250 wOBA, 19.9 Whiff%), while the Tigers are the worst offense in baseball against fastballs (-0.55 wFB/C). They’re also very awful against RHP overall (67 wRC+, 24.1 K%, 7.2 HR/FB).

Kirby has struck out as many as nine twice this season, but still has just an average 22.6 K% with the strength of his profile and elite walk rate (3.3%) that’s allowed him to accumulate five Quality Starts in over his last eight outings. With a .312 BABIP and 16.0 HR/FB, estimators are a bit lower than his 3.78 ERA. His best pitch has been a four-seamer that he throws nearly half the time (47.7%) with a 27.7 Whiff% and .312 wOBA (.282 xwOBA) that he should utilize quite frequently against the Rangers (93 wRC+, 23.4 K% vs RHP), who have been a bottom five offense against fastballs (-0.36 wFB/C). Add in a great home park and Kirby is a top seven projected value on either site.

Berrios has struck out 20 of his last 50 batters to boost his season strikeout rate to a league average 21.1%, but has allowed 20 home runs on 35 barrels (11.0%) this season, producing a 5.28 xERA that most closely aligns with his actual ERA (5.22), while additional estimators run around a run lower. Despite the sudden spike in strikeouts, a 90.4 Z-Contact% with just a 9.3 SwStr% are problematic. He has somehow registered a Quality Start in 10 of his 19 efforts this year, but has also allowed more than three runs six times. His four-seamer has been atrocious (2.8 RV/100, .474 wOBA). While Berrios is always a roller coaster ride and the Cardinals (104 wRC+, 20.7 K% vs RHP) have been good against fastball (0.33 wFB/C), they’ll be missing their two biggest bats (Goldy & Arenado).

Berrios is the least expensive of the top eight projected values on DraftKings tonight ($7.9K), meaning the only thing this board is truly lacking may be cheap SP2 options. While Jose Suarez has been an adequate bat misser (22.2 K%, 11.9 SwStr%), both his walk (10.8%) and barrel (11.9%) rates are in double digits, resulting in a 5.60 ERA and 5.26 FIP, but also some estimators in the four and a half range. He’s only completed six innings once this year and it wasn’t even in one of his nine starts. He’s only even completed five innings in one of them. The Royals have a 105 wRC+ with just an 18 K% vs LHP though. Since returning to the rotation four starts back, Spenser Watkins has allowed just four runs (three earned) over 22.2 innings, striking out 17 of 88 batters (11.6 SwStr%) with just five walks and four barrels (6.1%). The key change has been featuring his cutter more, which Statcast suggests is an average pitch (0.2 RV/100) with a 27.3 Whiff% and .334 wOBA, but .308 xwOBA. This stretch features his first two Quality Starts of the season with non-FIP estimators in the lower fours instead of fives, where his season rates still lie. His main problem may not be the Rays (100 wRC+, 24.7 K% vs RHP), but a hitter friendly umpire.

This Lefty Has Nearly Solved Pitching

A sizeable 13 game Tuesday night slate features two pitchers reaching the $10K price point on both sites with one more on FanDuel alone and then another four at $9K on higher on both sites. And there are some surprises in this group. Shane McClanahan has registered 16 straight Quality Starts, has a 31.1 K-BB% and generated half his contact on the ground (50.6%) with just an 87 mph EV (30.3% 95+ mph EV). He’s nearly solved pitching without a single estimator reaching two and a half. Against a predominantly right-handed lineup, McClanahan should feature his changeup (24.4%, -2.3 RV/100), as the Orioles are second worst offense in baseball against that pitch (-0.67 wCH/C), but are the best offense in the league (1.04 wCB/C) against his other elite platoon busting pitch, the curveball (25.2%, -2.4 RV/100). The O’s also have a 91 wRC+, while being tied for the highest strikeout rate split on the board (25.3%) vs LHP this year. This is a great spot for a great pitcher in a pretty decent park with only a hitter friendly umpire working against him tonight. McClanahan is the most expensive pitcher on either site, reaching $11.6K on FanDuel ($1.3K less on DraftKings). He is the second best projected pitcher on the board by less than a point and the third best projected point per dollar value on DraftKings (eight on FanDuel). For a much more detailed look at tonight’s seven highest priced pitchers, check out Tuesday’s Plate IQ Live Blog.

Game update: Guardians-Red Sox in a rain delay Monday.

Lineup update: Merrill Kelly will start in place of Tyler Gilbert on Monday

Lineup update: Merrill Kelly will start in place of Tyler Gilbert on Monday

Tyler Gilbert scratched Monday

Tyler Gilbert scratched Monday

The Top Stack That Projects Closely with the Dodgers Tonight

A short disclaimer to begin. If you want to read about something other than the Dodgers dominating the slate here, head on over to today’s PlateIQ Live Blog, where stacking projections and leverage ratings are discussed more in depth. On a slate with only one pitcher above a 25 K% and the Dodgers separating themselves by a bit more than half a run from the rest of the board, you would probably be shocked if the Dodgers weren’t projected to be the most popular stack tonight. (PlateIQ projections are updated throughout the day and subject to change.) The surprise may be that the Brewers project fairly closely both in terms of ownership and Smash%, while there are a few other cheaper offenses that project to be fairly popular as well, but the Dodgers and Brewers are the only stacks hovering around 15% in either of those areas. When we look at the value column, you merely have to know that the Giants are facing a marginal LHP (Tyler Gilbrt). Due to their lack of playing time, some of the better platoon RHBs are always underpriced and since the Giants platoon more than any other offense, you’ll often find them projecting for great value against all but the top lefties in the league. However, the Brewers also project very well and are the only other stack with a double digit value projection on either site, also against a marginal lefty (Kyle Freeland).

Top Offenses Offer Lots of Value

The more likely reason for needing value bats may be Dodger stacks rather than high priced pitching tonight, but no matter what your reasoning, Plate IQ projections (which are fluid and subject to change) have some ideas on where you can find those bats. As is usually the case, most right-handed platoon bats are too cheap because they don’t play very often. At least the more successful ones and more often than not, the Giants are going to project a ton of value when facing marginal lefties and even that may be under-stating it tonight. Tyler Gilbert has struck out just four of 56 batters in July. He’s allowed 13 barrels (12.9%) in 30.1 innings on the season, creating a 6.74 xERA. He doesn’t have an estimator below five. The Giants have a 4.76 implied run line that’s essentially tied for fifth best on the board and while they are too cheap on either site, it’s even more blatant on FanDuel, where Austin Slater (153 wRC+, .172 ISO vs LHP this year), Yermin Mercedes (147 wRC+, .233 ISO) and Darin Ruf (162 wRC+, .294 ISO) are all $2.6K or less. Mercedes is actually the top projected DraftKings value at minimum cost too ($2K). You may have to endure some pinch-hit risk, but these prices are so low, it’s probably worth it. RHBs have a .359 wOBA, but mind-blowing .431 xwOBA against Gilbert this year.

A struggling and banged up Boston offense (4.75 team run total) may be the place to look for DraftKings value. Zach Plesac has been a bit up and down over the last month, much as he has for the entire season. Most recently, he’s allowed nine runs (six earned) over 8.2 innings to the Royals and Tigers, striking out just eight of 44 batters, though with a .375 BABIP and 39.7 LOB%. To be honest, the only positive quality he’s exhibited is a 5.7 BB%. He’s struck out just 16.7% of batters faced with a 90.2 mph EV and 10.8% Barrels/BBE. Despite a string of seven straight Quality Starts before these last two outings, his 4.02 ERA is below all season estimators. A Boston lineup missing a few bats means a cheaper Fenway lineup for daily fantasy players. While Plesac has a fairly large split this year (LHBs .278 wOBA/RHBs .351 wOBA), Statcast closes that gap a bit (LHBs .347 xwOBA/RHBs .377 xwOBA). Jeter Downs (7 wRC+, .174 ISO vs RHP), Bobby Dalbec (53 wRC+, .150 ISO) and Yolmer Sanchez (111 wRC+) haven’t been a very productive group, but have matchup and environment in their favor tonight for less than $2.5K.

Projections for either site also suggest you can find a bit of value in the top two offenses on the board tonight (Dodgers 5.57 implied runs, Brewers 4.97). Max Muncy (93 wRC+, .139 ISO) doubles as a top 10 projected bat and value on FanDuel against Paolo Espino (batters from either side of the plate between a .309 and .342 wOBA and xwOBA this year). Jake Lamb (157 wRC+, .289 ISO) is a top value for $2.2K on either site. On DraftKings, both Mike Brosseau (172 wRC+, .232 ISO) and Pedro Severino (86 wRC+, .100 ISO) can be added to Milwaukee stacks against Kyle Freeland (RHBs .322 wOBA, .325 xwOBA this year) for $2.5K or less.

This Offense Separates From the Board, Dominates Projections

Between the warm/hot weather and lack of quality high priced pitching on Monday night, you would think this is a hitter’s slate. However, that’s only partially true, at least from a sportsbook point of view. While nearly half the board (10 teams) exceeds four and a half implied runs, only the Dodgers (5.57) exceed five. While there are not a lot of high strikeout pitchers on the board, a lot of them have been pretty proficient at run prevention, although there are some blow up arms in there too. It’s just that some of them are pitching in negative run environments out west. As far as PlateIQ projections, which are fluid and updated throughout the day, are concerned, Dodgers dominate. The top 10 projected hitters on either site features at least four Dodger batters (five on FanDuel). Paolo Espino has a below average strikeout rate, but 13.1 K-BB% over seven starts. The problem has lied in the 12 barrels (11.8%) that’s produced a 4.88 ERA that’s actually well below his FIP (5.64), but in line without additional estimators over this span. He also hasn’t completed six innings yet. Add in a Washington bullpen with a 4.55 FIP over the last 30 days and the Dodgers should feast tonight. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .309 and .342 wOBA and xwOBA against Espino this year with RHBs being a bit better than LHBs. Mookie Betts (135 wRC+, .256 ISO vs RHP this year) and Freddie Freeman (174 wRC+, .233 ISO) are the top two projected bats on the board tonight. Trea Turner (126 wRC+, .158 ISO) and Will Smith (125 wRC+, .199 ISO) are top 10 projections on either site, while Max Muncy (93 wRC+, .139 ISO) sneaks inside the top 10 on FanDuel.

While no other offense offers multiple top 10 projected batters on both sites, the Milwuakee Brewers (4.97 team run total) sneak two inside the top 10 on DraftKings. Kyle Freeland may not be as bad away from Coors this year, but an 11.2 K-BB% and 4.37 xFIP on the road still isn’t anything to write home about. He’s been lit up for 15 runs over his 16 innings, two of those starts on the road. Overall, all estimators are within half a run of his 4.96 ERA. RHBs have a .322 wOBA (.325 xwOBA) against him this year, while LHBs have been over .400. None the less, the Brewers are expected to stack the lineup with right-handed bats here. However, Christian Yelich (98 wRC+, .090 ISO vs LHP this year) is the only top 10 projected Brewer on both sites with Willy Adames (106 wRC+, .250 ISO) joining him on DraftKings.

The Only Pitcher Above a 25 K% on Tonight's Board

Monday night is a perfect slate to consider paying down for pitching, even on a single pitcher site and let’s start with the highest strikeout rate on the board and the highest projected FanDuel value on the board for less than $8K on either site. The Brewers tried to pull a fast one, starting Aaron Ashby on three days rest prior to the break with the intention of quickly following with Jason Alexander. It backfired, as two of the seven batters he faced scored. Ashby has a 26.2 K% since permanently joining the rotation with 51.7% of his contact on the ground and an 87.4 mph EV. A .368 BABIP and 21.9 HR/FB with all seven of his barrels (5.8%) leaving the yard over this span, leaves him with a 5.31 ERA that’s about two runs above non-FIP estimators. Part of the problem is a changeup (1.4 RV/100) a wOBA (.376) more than 100 points above his xwOBA (.272), though things may not get much better here against a predominantly right-handed lineup that smashes changeups at the third best rate in the league this year (1.28 wCH/C). An additional issue is that the Rockies have been really good against LHP overall this year (111 wRC+, 18.7 K%). None the less, Ashby is the only pitcher on the board striking out more than a quarter of batters faced this year and may be worth the risk in GPPs, although two things to check are ownership projections (obviously) and roof status. According to Statcast Park Factors, Milwaukee plays much more hitter friendly with the roof open and is a slightly negative run environment with it closed.

It’ll be interesting to see how the movable object (Zack Greinke 12.7 K%) fares against the resistible force (Angels 27.3 K% vs RHP). Greinke still has elite control (4.5 BB%) with an average contact profile, but has only completed six innings four times with an ERA and estimators all above four and a half. Greinke is a top three projected value on FanDuel for $7.6K, but the top projected value for just $5.9K on DraftKings. This may be the board to take a chance and hope he puts up five or six.

A 79.7 LOB% and 8.3 HR/FB are responsible for a 3.79 ERA that’s more than a run below all non-FIP estimators and that includes a 5.01 xERA (10.1% Barrels/BBE). Just 12 of Chris Flexen’s 33 barrels have left the yard, which may partially be a function of the park he pitches half his games in, but it should be tougher to sustain this type of run prevention with an 8.2 K-BB% (90.4 Z-Contact%) and 90 mph EV with just a 32.7 GB%. He pitches in that park tonight against the Rangers (93 wRC+, 23.4 K%), costing $8.2K on FanDuel, but exactly $1K less on DraftKings, which is enough to make him a top five projected value on either site and top three on the latter.

You can often squint and see a good pitcher inside J.T. Brubaker’s uniform, like his last outing when he three hit the Marlins over seven shutout innings with nine strikeouts and not a single walk, but he walked five Brewers the start before. A 9.5 BB% is the reason his 4.02 ERA is within one-third of a run of all estimators. On a more positive note, he’s allowed just 6.8% Barrels/BBE, so we can be optimistic last year’s second half home run problems won’t plague him again. Despite just four Quality Starts over his last seven, Brubaker has averaged over 26 batters faced over this span. The Cubs have been an average offense vs RHP (99 wRC+, 23.1 K%), but while it’s not a strong wind blowing in day at Wrigley, it is one of the few pitcher friendly weather spots on the board. Brubaker projects as the sixth best DraftKings value for $7.4K ($1.3K more on FD), but may even be a bit under-valued here.

Monday Night's Pitching Board Lacks Upside

An 11 game Monday night slate to start the weak features a marginal pitching board with just two pitchers hitting the $10K mark, though both do so on both major sites tonight. In fact, both are exactly the same price on either site. While four more reach the $9K price point on FanDuel, none do so on DraftKings, leaving a $1.4K gap between the second and third most expensive pitchers. After walking as many Mets as he struck out two starts back (five each), Max Fried completed seven innings with three earned runs allowed against the Nationals without a walk last time out, but just four strikeouts. He’s struck out just 17 of 100 batters in July, dropping his season rate to 22.9%, but with everything else in his profile remaining nearly elite (4.6 BB%, 49.7 GB%, 86.6 mph EV, 3.8% Barrels/BBE, 33.9% 95+ mph EV). That start against the Mets was only the third time he’s failed to produce a Quality Start in his last 17 tries. A 2.64 ERA is more in line with his FIP (2.57) and xERA (2.95) than contact neutral estimators (6.1 HR/FB). Aside from the lackluster declining strikeout rate at the highest price on the board, additional problems facing Fried tonight are the Phillies’ 109 wRC+ and 21.8 K% vs LHP, some very hitter friendly weather in an already power friendly park in Philadelphia and a potential rain issue. Fried still projects as the top pitcher on the board, but that says more about the state of the board than his expected performance. His contact profile may help him battle the elements in Philadelphia tonight and he projects as a better FanDuel value (Quality Start potential) than DraftKings, despite the same $10.5K cost. While Monday night’s board does lack strikeout upside (only one pitcher above 25%), find out which high priced arms may be superior options to Fried in Monday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.