DFS Alerts

Christian Vazquez (trade) scratched Monday

Christian Vazquez (trade) scratched Monday

Kris Bryant scratched Monday.

Kris Bryant scratched Monday.

Brad Keller scratched Monday.

Brad Keller scratched Monday.

Alex Bregman scratched Monday.

Alex Bregman scratched Monday.

Strong Contact Profile May Not Be Enough to Tame This Powerful Lineup

The New York Yankees, with the second highest implied run line on the board (5.2), are currently projected to be the most popular stack on a nine game slate, though just slightly ahead of the Mets (5.29) on FanDuel and Guardians (5.01) on DraftKings. They also smash the slate most often in simulations, around 15% of the time, again just slightly higher than the Mets. When we move to the Value% column, we finally find some separation, but only on DraftKings. While the Rangers currently project as the top value stack on either site (though projections are fluid and updated throughtout the day), the Tigers and White Sox are nipping at their heels on FanDuel. However, Texas stacks are projecting for at least 50% more value than any other DraftKings stack. Spenser Watkins has just a 13.8 K% and 5.9 K-BB% on the season, but 18.6 K% and 14.2 K-BB% in five starts back from the IL. Watkins does throw about 65% cutters and four-seamers, two of the pitchers the Texas offense performs worst against. These are a couple of factors projections may not immediately inject. For more on what this means for Leverage Ratings, check out tonight’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

This Leadoff Man Doubles as Top Projected Bat and Value

If you’re planning on stacking the Mets (highest team run total on the board) against Patrick Corbin (batters from either side of the plate above a .370 wOBA this year, though Statcast brings LHBs down a .307 xwOBA), there’s more good news in that current PlateIQ projections (which are subject to change) suggest that beyond some of the top projected bats on the board (Starling Marte, Pete Alonso), players can also find some of the top projected values in the New York lineup tonight. J.D. Davis (103 wRC+, .109 ISO vs LHP this season) is the top projected value on DraftKings for just $2.1K. His .339 xwOBA against southpaws is over 30 points above his actual mark. On FanDuel, Brandon Nimmo (127 wRC+, .176 ISO) doubles as a top projected bat and value ($2.9K), while Mark Canha (92 wRC+, .109 ISO) projects as a slightly better value ($2.5K).

FanDuel projections suggest even more value can be found in the Chicago (AL) lineup. Aside from dominating Detroit, three of Brad Keller’s last four starts have resulted in at least three runs with six innings pitched just once and more walks than strikeouts. While the 7.2 K-BB% is incredibly unimpressive, he does keep the ball on the ground (51.5%), suppressing barrels (5.3%), resulting in a 3.87 xERA that’s his only estimator below a 4.18 ERA, though none extend more than a half run above. Keller’s one positive graded pitch has been his slider (36.6%, -1.2 RV/100), a pitch the White Sox struggle with (-0.53 wSL/C), but batters from either side of the plate have been about average against him this year (between a .298 and .320 wOBA and xwOBA). Yasmani Grandal (42 wRC+), A.J. Pollock (65 wRC+) and Yoan Moncada (63 wRC+) all have better track records than what they’ve done this year and all cost less than $2.5K.

DraftKings projections suggest a pair of left-handed Padres and Royals might be top values tonight. Eric Hosmer (98 wRC+, .129 ISO) has begun to hit the ball better and Nomar Mazara (93 wRC+) costs below $3K too against Antonio Senzatela, whom LHBs have a .379 wOBA and .344 xwOBA against (RHBs have been even better). Hosmer did exit yesterday’s game with a neck issue though, so he may not be available tonight. Although Michael Kopech threw 5.1 shutout innings at Coors last time, it’s been five starts since he’s completed six innings, with his strikeout rate dropping to a league average 21.4%. That wouldn’t be terrible if he didn’t have a 12.3 BB%, 34.3 GB% and 90 mph EV too. A .226 BABIP and 78.9 LOB% have been responsible for a 3.16 ERA more than half a run below estimators with only his xERA (3.81) below four. LHBs have a wOBA and xwOBA within two points of .340 against Kopech this year, while Vinnie Pasquantino (87 wRC+, .120 ISO) and Nick Pratto (113 wRC+, .222 ISO) are both $2.2K or less, but problematically, both are only first base eligible.

Facing This Lefty is Almost Like a Night at Coors

The Rockies are away from Coors tonight, while the Mets are facing Patrick Corbin, which is almost like a night at Coors. They top the board at 5.29 implied runs tonight, slightly ahead of the Yankees at home against Marco Gonzales with the White Sox (Spenser Watkins) and Guardians (Zach Davies) are at five run team totals as well. No other offense reaches the four and a half run mark on Monday night, while Watkins has been much better since returning to the rotation a month ago and there is some rain risk in Cleveland, which essentially makes this a New York slate in terms of hitters. PlateIQ projections (which are fluid and subject to change) agree.

The Mets and Yankees are the only two offenses to boast multiple top 10 projected hitters tonight. Corbin had struck out 15 of his last 51 batters going into his Dodger Stadium start last time out. He faced just 10 batters without a strikeout and has now allowed 21 runs (20 earned) over his last 16.2 innings with 9.7% Barrels/BBE. He’s now up to a 6.49 ERA on the season, which includes a .379 BABIP and 62.3 LOB%, but also a strikeout rate below 20%, 90.7 mph EV and 9.9% Barrels/BBE. Estimators range from a 4.04 xFIP, which claims he may still be a league average pitcher, to a 5.71 xERA, which suggests he no longer has a place in the league. Corbin doesn’t have a single pitch that grades out better than a 1.7 RV/100 (where positive numbers are bad) and the Mets are in the top half of third of the league against every pitch he throws. RHBs have a wOBA and xwOBA within two points of .385 against Corbin this season, while LHBs are dragged down by Statcast (.375 wOBA, .307 xwOBA), but haven’t been bad either. Starling Marte (168 wRC+, .217 ISO vs LHP in 2022) and Pete Alonso (141 wRC+, .244 ISO) are each top five projected bats, while Brandon Nimmo (127 wRC+, .176 ISO) isn’t far behind.

Marco Gonzales has tossed 11 Quality Starts in his last 16 tries, despite an 11.1 K% (3.4 K-BB%) over that span because he’s stranded 80% of runners, while he’s been able to avoid hard contact (87.6 mph EV and barrels (6.3%). That said, a 4.62 xERA is his only estimate within a run of a 3.66 ERA (he allowed eigh unearned runs in April and 10 altogether this season), so we shouldn’t expect his current run suppression success to continue. A soft-tossing, contact prone lefties is in trouble against this Yankee lineup, despite the favorable contact profile. It’s actually LHBs (.359 wOBA, .382 xwOBA) that have had the advantage on Gonzales over RHBs (.329 wOBA, .321 xwOBA) this year. That probably explains that while Aaron Judge (157 wRC+, .343 ISO) is the top projected bat on the board, Anthony Rizzo (137 wRC+, .289 ISO) is also a top five projected value as well with Gleyber Torres (169 wRC+, .351 ISO) rounding out the top 10.

Top Projected Value on the Board Costs Less than $9K

Very few of the most expensive pitchers project as top of the board values on Monday night. That certainly doesn’t mean that every top of the board value is rosterable on single pitcher sites. For instance, the Tigers are so bad against RHP (68 wRC+, 24.1 K%, 7.1 HR/FB) that Aaron Sanchez projects as the fourth best FanDuel value ($6K), but nobody in their right mind is using him (though sometimes it takes an “unright” mind to win a GPP). The top projected value on either site is within $200 of $8.5K on either site. Mike Clevinger’s 24 K% (16.2 K-BB%) may not be up to pre-injury standards, but he finally seems to be hitting a grove, completing six innings in four of his last five starts and suppressing hard contact (86.7 mph EV, 6.0% Barrels/BBE, 34.9% 95+ mph EV) with a 3.38 ERA that’s below, but within half a run of all estimators. In a favorable park with moderately hitter friendly weather, but not enough to pull it out of negative run environment status, Clevinger has a strong run prevention matchup against the Rockies (86 wRC+, 21.5 K% vs RHP). He is the type of pitcher players can use on a single pitcher site.

The pitchers projecting for the second and third most value on either site are a bit more volatile, though cheaper. Domingo German was lit up in Houston in his first start, but did strikeout out seven of 21 Mets in his second, though still was unable to complete five innings. That’s a tough one-two punch to measure German against, but his early numbers look like what they usually have with the ability to miss some bats (23.1 K%, 11.4 SwStr%) with some contact profile issues (11.5% Barrels/BBE). He gets a park downgrade with some hitter friendly weather in the Bronx tonight in what’s not a favorable matchup either (Mariners 104 wRC+, 22.5 K% vs RHP). However, German Is cheap ($6.5K or less), while the Mariners are struggling (77 wRC+ last seven days) and without Julio Rodriguez.

Although Michael Kopech threw 5.1 shutout innings at Coors last time, it’s been five starts since he’s completed six innings, with his strikeout rate dropping to a league average 21.4%. That wouldn’t be terrible if he didn’t have a 12.3 BB%, 34.3 GB% and 90 mph EV too. A .226 BABIP and 78.9 LOB% have been responsible for a 3.16 ERA more than half a run below estimators with only his xERA (3.81) below four. More significantly hitter friendly weather in Chicago against a Kansas City offense with a 91 wRC+ and 21.9 K% vs RHP makes him a high risk play. The Royals recently got Sal Perez back, though Bobby Witt Jr. left yesterday’s game with an injury and Andrew Benintendi is gone.

If you’re looking for a dirt cheap SP2 DK punt, Antonio Senzatela’s 18.1 K% over his last seven starts is more than double what it was before that and he gets a massive park upgrade in San Diego (Padres 97 wRC+, 22 K% vs RHP). Spenser Watkins has a 1.92 ERA, 2.62 FIP and 4.12 xFIP in five starts back from the IL. Believe it or not, all of those numbers are significant improvements on his season numbers (4.03 ERA, 4.45 FIP, 5.05 xFIP). An 18.6 K% and 14.2 K-BB% over this five starts span are also stark improvements to 13.8% and 5.9% season rates and that’s basically been the difference. Watkins also throws about 65% cutters and four-seamers, two of the pitchers the Texas offense (94 wRC+, 23.5 K% vs RHP) performs worst against. Both he and Senzatela are less than $6K on DraftKings.

Top of the Board Pitcher Facing Offense That Struggles Against Sliders

The Monday night slate to kick off the week includes just nine games, but four $10K pitchers (just one on DraftKings) with one more above $9K on both sites. Max Scherzer has a 35.7 K% and 17.2 SwStr% through five July starts, walking just four, while allowing just five runs. He’s failed to produce a Quality Start in just three of his 13 starts and has missed completing six innings in 11 straight starts by only a single out. With a 27.9 K-BB% (79.7 Z-Contact%), Scherzer would probably be a Cy Young contender had he avoided a month on the IL. While his contact profile includes 10.9% Barrels/BBE, that’s more a function of his ground ball rate (27.9%) than the amount of hard contact he’s allowed (34.2% 95+ mph EV). A 3.13 xERA is the highest of his estimators, which run as low as a 2.50 FIP. Just seven of 21 barrels have left the yard. The Nationals (93 wRC+ vs RHP) don’t strike out much (19.7% vs RHP), but are the second worst slider hitter team in the majors this year (-0.9 wSL/C) and Scherzer has a pretty nasty one (21.9%, -3.6 RV/100, 51.4 Whiff%). That sets up this matchup very nicely for Scherzer despite the park downgrade and hitter friendly weather (which appears to be the case in every open air stadium tonight). Scherzer is the most expensive pitcher on either site and the top projected one. The high price tag pushes him to the latter half of the top 10 pitching values on either site. To find out who the top pivots off Scherzer are tonight, check out Monday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Ke’Bryan Hayes (knee) scratched Sunday

Owen Miller scratched Sunday

Owen Miller scratched Sunday

David Peralta (trade) scratched Saturday

David Peralta (trade) scratched Saturday

Erick Fedde (undisclosed) scratched Saturday; Paolo Espino will start in his place

Erick Fedde (undisclosed) scratched Saturday; Paolo Espino will start in his place

Josh Naylor (ankle) scratched Saturday

Josh Naylor (ankle) scratched Saturday

This Stack is Expected to Crush the Slate Once Again

Much as was the case on Thursday, but even with five additional games, it’s a Dodgers’ slate and we’re just paying in it. Although the numbers aren’t quite so dominant on the larger slate, the Dodgers are still the top projected stack in terms of ownership by a decent margin, while smashing the slate in about 20% of simulations, which is 50% more often than the Yankees, who do so at the second highest rate. The stack that projects for the most value is also the Dodgers, though prices have risen a bit after they truly did smash the Rockies last night. They’re barely ahead of the Yankees on FanDuel, where no stack reaches a double digit value projection (although projections are fluid and updated throughout the day). They do separate a bit more from the rest of the board on DraftKings. It’s probably no secret that the Dodgers rate as a top stack tonight, but they are not the top rated stack on either site currently. To find out who is and why that may be, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.