DFS Alerts

The Only Pitcher Above a 25 K% on Tonight's Board

Monday night is a perfect slate to consider paying down for pitching, even on a single pitcher site and let’s start with the highest strikeout rate on the board and the highest projected FanDuel value on the board for less than $8K on either site. The Brewers tried to pull a fast one, starting Aaron Ashby on three days rest prior to the break with the intention of quickly following with Jason Alexander. It backfired, as two of the seven batters he faced scored. Ashby has a 26.2 K% since permanently joining the rotation with 51.7% of his contact on the ground and an 87.4 mph EV. A .368 BABIP and 21.9 HR/FB with all seven of his barrels (5.8%) leaving the yard over this span, leaves him with a 5.31 ERA that’s about two runs above non-FIP estimators. Part of the problem is a changeup (1.4 RV/100) a wOBA (.376) more than 100 points above his xwOBA (.272), though things may not get much better here against a predominantly right-handed lineup that smashes changeups at the third best rate in the league this year (1.28 wCH/C). An additional issue is that the Rockies have been really good against LHP overall this year (111 wRC+, 18.7 K%). None the less, Ashby is the only pitcher on the board striking out more than a quarter of batters faced this year and may be worth the risk in GPPs, although two things to check are ownership projections (obviously) and roof status. According to Statcast Park Factors, Milwaukee plays much more hitter friendly with the roof open and is a slightly negative run environment with it closed.

It’ll be interesting to see how the movable object (Zack Greinke 12.7 K%) fares against the resistible force (Angels 27.3 K% vs RHP). Greinke still has elite control (4.5 BB%) with an average contact profile, but has only completed six innings four times with an ERA and estimators all above four and a half. Greinke is a top three projected value on FanDuel for $7.6K, but the top projected value for just $5.9K on DraftKings. This may be the board to take a chance and hope he puts up five or six.

A 79.7 LOB% and 8.3 HR/FB are responsible for a 3.79 ERA that’s more than a run below all non-FIP estimators and that includes a 5.01 xERA (10.1% Barrels/BBE). Just 12 of Chris Flexen’s 33 barrels have left the yard, which may partially be a function of the park he pitches half his games in, but it should be tougher to sustain this type of run prevention with an 8.2 K-BB% (90.4 Z-Contact%) and 90 mph EV with just a 32.7 GB%. He pitches in that park tonight against the Rangers (93 wRC+, 23.4 K%), costing $8.2K on FanDuel, but exactly $1K less on DraftKings, which is enough to make him a top five projected value on either site and top three on the latter.

You can often squint and see a good pitcher inside J.T. Brubaker’s uniform, like his last outing when he three hit the Marlins over seven shutout innings with nine strikeouts and not a single walk, but he walked five Brewers the start before. A 9.5 BB% is the reason his 4.02 ERA is within one-third of a run of all estimators. On a more positive note, he’s allowed just 6.8% Barrels/BBE, so we can be optimistic last year’s second half home run problems won’t plague him again. Despite just four Quality Starts over his last seven, Brubaker has averaged over 26 batters faced over this span. The Cubs have been an average offense vs RHP (99 wRC+, 23.1 K%), but while it’s not a strong wind blowing in day at Wrigley, it is one of the few pitcher friendly weather spots on the board. Brubaker projects as the sixth best DraftKings value for $7.4K ($1.3K more on FD), but may even be a bit under-valued here.

Monday Night's Pitching Board Lacks Upside

An 11 game Monday night slate to start the weak features a marginal pitching board with just two pitchers hitting the $10K mark, though both do so on both major sites tonight. In fact, both are exactly the same price on either site. While four more reach the $9K price point on FanDuel, none do so on DraftKings, leaving a $1.4K gap between the second and third most expensive pitchers. After walking as many Mets as he struck out two starts back (five each), Max Fried completed seven innings with three earned runs allowed against the Nationals without a walk last time out, but just four strikeouts. He’s struck out just 17 of 100 batters in July, dropping his season rate to 22.9%, but with everything else in his profile remaining nearly elite (4.6 BB%, 49.7 GB%, 86.6 mph EV, 3.8% Barrels/BBE, 33.9% 95+ mph EV). That start against the Mets was only the third time he’s failed to produce a Quality Start in his last 17 tries. A 2.64 ERA is more in line with his FIP (2.57) and xERA (2.95) than contact neutral estimators (6.1 HR/FB). Aside from the lackluster declining strikeout rate at the highest price on the board, additional problems facing Fried tonight are the Phillies’ 109 wRC+ and 21.8 K% vs LHP, some very hitter friendly weather in an already power friendly park in Philadelphia and a potential rain issue. Fried still projects as the top pitcher on the board, but that says more about the state of the board than his expected performance. His contact profile may help him battle the elements in Philadelphia tonight and he projects as a better FanDuel value (Quality Start potential) than DraftKings, despite the same $10.5K cost. While Monday night’s board does lack strikeout upside (only one pitcher above 25%), find out which high priced arms may be superior options to Fried in Monday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Jonathan India (thigh) scratched Sunday

Jonathan India (thigh) scratched Sunday

The start of Angels-Braves will be delayed Friday due to rain

Game update: The start of Angels-Braves will be delayed Friday due to rain

The start of Padres-Mets will be delayed Friday due to rain

Game update: The start of Padres-Mets will be delayed Friday due to rain

J.D. Martinez scratched Friday

J.D. Martinez scratched Friday

The Offense That is Currently Dominating Stacking Projections

Expensive pitching plus a lot of projected value in the Arizona lineup (we’ll come back to that again soon), gives Diamondbacks’ stacks the top ownership projection tonight on DraftKings with a current 14.57 Own% (PlateIQ projections are fluid and updated throughout the day), which separates them a bit from the stack projected to be second most popular tonight (Brewers 10.77 Own%). The stacks are flip-flopped on FanDuel, where neither stack reaches a double digit ownership projection, though they are the only two stacks currently above a 7.0 Own%. Arizona has 4.73 run team total that’s impressively fourth on the board, but despite the three other offenses ahead of them, Arizona stacks are also the only stack currently smashing the slate in more than 10% of simulations. There’s a bit of separation between Diamondback and Yankee stacks with about three points of Smash% between them atop the board. The one category where Arizona absolutely dominates is Value%, as they currently project for twice as much value as any other stack on either site. While it’s pretty clear that Arizona is currently dominating these early stacking projections, another great value stack may be a great pivot, while an offense with a higher implied run line projects as a better rated stack on either site. For more, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

The Lineup Projections Believe is Loaded with Right-Handed Value

Players are very likely paying up for pitching tonight, so it’s good news that projections for both sites suggest there’s a bit of value to be found in one of the top offense tonight. The Philadelphia Phillies have the third highest implied run line on tonight’s board (4.77) against Justin Steele. Batters from either side of the plate are within two points of a .300 wOBA against him this year, but Statcast widens that gap to a .256 xwOBA for LHBs and a .320 xwOBA for RHBs. Kyle Schwarber and Rhys Hoskins are two of the top projected bats on the board tonight, but neither is cheap, especially on DraftKings. However, Matt Vierling (112 wRC+, .140 ISO vs LHP this year) costs less than $2.5K on either site, while Yairo Munoz (150 wRC+, .278 ISO) costs the minimum on DraftKings. An even more attractive stacking option may be Nick Castellanos, who costs $2.5K on FanDuel, though his power has disappeared against southpaws this year (103 wRC+, .095 ISO) and this is confirmed by an xwOBA that’s only a single point higher than his .319 wOBA with the platoon advantage in 2022.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have a 4.73 team run total that’s just behind the Phillies and fourth on a 26 team board, but PlateIQ projections suggest there’s a ton of value to be found in this lineup. A 25.6 K% with an ERA and FIP in the low fours is nothing to write home about, but respectable is something the Nationals will certainly take from Patrick Corbin at this point and that’s what he’s been over the last month. His season strikeout rate is still just 19.4% with a 90.7 mph EV and 9.7% Barrels/BBE with all estimators above four, but below his 5.87 ERA. In fact, for less than $6K, Corbin may be a GPP worthy play on DraftKings, but his 5.84 xERA nearly matches the actual results this season and RHBs still have a .374 wOBA (.401 xwOBA) against him this year. For $2.2K or less on FanDuel, Carson Kelly (85 wRC+, .190 ISO), Jordan Luplow (138 wRC+, .371 ISO) and Jake McCarthy (137 wRC+, .179 ISO) are the top three projected values on the board, joined as a top 10 projected value by Ketel Marte (145 wRC+, .183 ISO), who is also a top 10 projected bat overall at $3K. McCarthy and Luplow are also top five projected DraftKings values for less than $3K.

On FanDuel, Rowdy Tellez (114 wRC+, .264 ISO) also doubles as a top projected bat and value against Antonio Senzatela (LHBs .385 wOBA, .368 xwOBA this year), while Jace Peterson (111 wRC+, .193 ISO) is also a top 10 projected value for $2.3K, making Milwaukee stacks a bit easier tonight. They have the second highest implied run line on the board at 4.85.

Top Projected Bat Elevates Most His Contact Against Same-Handed Pitching

A 13 game Friday night board includes a lot of hitter friendly weather, but no Coors and perhaps even more good pitching does not feature a single offense eclipsing five implied runs at this point in the afternoon, although the Yankees are essentially right there (4.99) in a more pitcher friendly Baltimore park this year. Six more offenses exceed four and a half run team totals tonight. The result is that several offenses include pairs of teammates among the top projected bats, starting with the top projected bat on the board in Aaron Judge (185 wRC+, .341 ISO vs RHP this year) against Tyler Wells, who has recent pitch counts all over the map, so who knows what the Orioles will do with him in the second half of the season, but even with a matching 6.1 BB% and Barrels/BBE, a 17.2 K% is hardly worth chasing with an unstable workload. A 3.38 ERA nearly matches a 3.41 xERA, but other non-FIP estimators are more than a run higher (.242 BABIP, 8.3 HR/FB). Working against him tonight is a stark reverse split (RHBs .313 wOBA, .335 xwOBA). Giancarlo Stanton (136 wRC+, .293 ISO) is the other right-handed big bopper in this lineup and projects as a top 10 bat alongside Judge tonight.

The Milwaukee Brewers have the second highest team run total on the board (4.85) at home against Antonio Senzatela. In addition to not missing many bats (12.3 K%, 7.1 SwStr%, 92.1 Z-Contact%), Senzatela is no longer generating ground balls at a much above average rate either this year (44.8%). The surprise is that he’s still continued to suppress barrels (5.3%) with a 90.3 mph EV and 46.2% 95+ mph EV. Yet, a 5.92 xERA is still his highest estimator, more than two runs above a 3.86 FIP (8.3 HR/FB), which is his only one below four. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .365 wOBA and xwOBA against him this year, though it’s a pair of left-handed Brewers that PlateIQ projections, which are fluid and updated throughout the day, currently favor in Christian Yelich (109 wRC+, .144 ISO) and Rowdy Tellez (114 wRC+, .264 ISO). Both are top six projected values on either site against Senzatela. However, RHBs are above a .400 wOBA and xwOBA against him this year and Willy Adames (114 wRC+, .256 ISO) could be undervalued in this spot.

Kyle Smasher…er..Schwarber is the second best projected hitter on the board tonight, as he’s hit same-handed pitching very well this year (107 wRC+, .219 ISO) and it’s Philly. Justin Steele can occasionally spike a high strikeout total (eight or more four times), but his biggest value is in generating lots of weak (87.1 mph EV) ground balls (51%), helping to erase some of his 10.3 BB%. His 4.15 ERA almost perfectly matches his highest estimator, a 4.13 SIERA. LHBs do have a .300 wOBA, but just a .256 xwOBA against him this year. LHBs have put exactly half their contact on the ground against Steele this year, but Schwarber has elevated an even higher rate of his contact against LHP (52.1%), which helps explain this lofty projection, along with a 4.77 implied run line that’s third on the board for the home team. Also projected among the top 10 tonight is Rhys Hoskins (170 wRC+, .304 ISO vs LHP this year). RHBs have a .302 wOBA, but .320 xwOBA against Steele this season.

Great Matchup Gives This Pitcher a Top Projection For Less than $10K

Tonight’s board is loaded with top end pitching, but the top projected pitcher on the board (by a fraction of a point) can be rostered for less than $10K tonight (less than $9K on DraftKings). Charlie Morton had been absolutely rolling, allowing two runs or fewer in seven innings in four of five starts with his season strikeout rate up to 27.3% before running into the Mets last time out. They homered three times against him on five barrels (one-third of contact), striking out in six of 24 PAs. Morton still has a 27.1 K%, but a 15.3 HR/FB and 9.7% Barrels/BBE. The home run rate wouldn’t be so bad for a traditionally ground ball pitcher, but Morton has just a 37.6 GB% this year. A 4.45 ERA is still well above estimators, but with an xERA and FIP still exceeding four. He also pitches in a hitter friendly park, but that’s where the bad news ends tonight. His top of the board projection has a lot to do with the matchup, as the Angels come to town without Mike Trout. This is an offense with a 97 wRC+ and board high 27.3 K% vs RHP this year. No other offense in play tonight has a strikeout split above 26%. Morton is not only the top projected overall arm on the board, but the top projected value on either site by a wider margin.

In fact, you’re probably not playing many pitchers who cost less than Morton on a single pitcher site. One exception may be Braxton Garrett in Pittsburgh. Striking out 11 of 24 Pirates in his last start and producing a 3.70 ERA that’s within one-third of a run of all of his estimators behind a 17.2 K-BB%, Garrett is making people take notice. His velocity is up about a mile per hour, but inconsistently so, and some of his pitches are moving differently. The oddest part of all this is that he’s not getting any zone whiffs (91.8 Z-Contact%), but lots of chasing (21.5 Z-O-Swing%). The Pirates have an 85 wRC+ with the second highest strikeout split on the board (26.0%) against LHP. Garrett is less than $8K on either site, projecting as the sixth best FanDuel value, though more middle of the board on DraftKings. Projections may have not yet caught up with the changes in his arsenal though.

Considering some cheaper top projected values, who may fit into your SP2 slot on DraftKings, Spencer Howard projects as the second best point per dollar value on the board. His major league work has been awful this year. He has completed five innings in two straight starts, but has walked seven and struck out just six of 65 batters since returning with just a 4.1 SwStr%, while his velocity has dropped in each start. Include his April numbers and you’re looking at an 18.6 K%, 6.8 SwStr%, 93.1 Z-Contact%, 44.1 Z-O-Swing%, 92.2 mph EV and 12.9% Barrels/BBE without an estimator below four and a half. However, he did have a 30.8 K% in 46.1 AAA innings this year and is in Oakland tonight, which is a pitcher friendly park, inhabited by an offense with a 71 wRC+ and 24.1 K% vs RHP, while Howard is nearly free ($5.1K) on DK.

Kyle Gibson owns just a 17.1 K% over his last nine starts, dropping him to 19.8% on the season, but he also has six Quality Starts in that span because he’s not walking many either (6.4% season). His 46 GB% is a career low though and probably not what they want in Philly. His 4.35 ERA is above, but within half a run of all estimators. He lacks upside in a tough park, but is also cheap ($6.8K DK) in a favorable matchup (Cubs 98 wRC+, 23.3 K% vs RHP), projecting as the second best DK value costing less than $8.8K.

Lucas Giolito has surrendered just a single home run and three barrels (4.6%) over his last four starts (86.2 mph EV). His fastball rate is down to 40% over this span with his K-BB increasing to 20.6%. The strikeout rate has been strong all season (27.1%), but the walk rate has been average (8.5%), while he’s still at a double digit barrel rate (10.4%). If 60% sliders and changeups is what it takes to drop his 4.69 more towards contact neutral estimators a full run lower, then he seems to be embracing the idea. He costs less than $8K, but the Guardians have a 107 wRC+ with a board low 17.7 K% vs RHP. Still a decent DK SP2 choice, he costs more than $9.1K on FanDuel, where he projects as a much more marginal value.

Lastly, though he doesn’t project very well, Patrick Corbin costs less than $6K and hasn’t been terrible recently. A 25.6 K% with an ERA and FIP in the low fours is nothing to write home about, but respectable is something the Nationals will certainly take from Patrick Corbin at this point and that’s what he’s been over the last month. His season strikeout rate is still just 19.4% with a 90.7 mph EV and 9.7% Barrels/BBE with all estimators above four, but below his 5.87 ERA. The Diamondbacks have just a 92 wRC+ and 22.5 K% vs LHP this year.

This Pitcher Has Been on Fire Since Return From The IL

We open the second half (yesterday’s small slate does not count) with a 13 game board, which features five $10K pitchers, along with another who is $9.8K on each site. The most expensive arm on the board is Max Scherzer, who reaches $11.5K on FanDuel and is still the highest priced DraftKings arm for $1.1K less. He has struck out 31 of 72 batters with a 19.7 SwStr% since returning from the IL. Scherzer has a 29.5 K-BB% and 79.4 Z-Contact% on the season. While he’s allowed 10.1% Barrels/BBE, that’s more a function of his 29.3 GB%. Only 32.9% of his contact has reached a 95+ mph EV (otherwise known as hard hit by Statcast). None of his estimators reach three. Weather may make Citi Field a little more hitter friendly tonight, but the Padres have a 97 wRC+, 21.9 K% and 8.2 HR/FB vs RHP. That last number is the third lowest split on the board tonight. However, Scherzer is currently just the third best projected arm on a loaded pitching board (though the top three are extremely close), but still a top seven projected value on either site. For more on tonight’s top of the board pitching, including one who projects slightly better than Scherzer and a strong potential pivot, check out Friday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Reds-Cardinals postponed Sunday due to inclement weather

Game update: Reds-Cardinals postponed Sunday due to inclement weather

Tigers-Guardians postponed Sunday due to inclement weather

Game update: Tigers-Guardians postponed Sunday due to inclement weather

Mike Trout (back) scratched Saturday

Mike Trout (back) scratched Saturday

Cheap Bats in Favorable Matchups

With most of the usable pitching tonight being high priced, players are likely to be in the market for value bats and both sites believe you can find a lot of that in the visiting team at Coors tonight. It’s the Pirates, but they still have a five run team total against German Marquez, against whom batters from either side of the plate have a wOBA and xwOBA between .349 and .374 against this year. Visiting bats are not being priced up for Coors this year and that’s especially true on DraftKings, where four of the top 10 projected values are Pirates. Jake Marisnick (132 wRC+ vs RHP this year), Yoshi Tsutsugo (56 wRC+) and Josh VanMeter (81 wRC+) all cost less than $3K, while Daniel Vogelbach (153 wRC+, .280 ISO) doubles as a top projected bat and value for $3.4K on DK and $3.2K on FanDuel, where VanMeter is just $2.6K, projected to hit leadoff.

DraftKings actually projects the top two values on the board coming out of Cleveland tonight, where Nolan Jones (196 wRC+, .238 ISO) and Myles Straw (66 wRC+) both cost the minimum. Drew Hutchison has struck out seven of 82 batters over four starts with six barrels (8.6%) and a 90.4 mph EV. His 3.66 ERA is about three-quarters of a run below his FIP (4.48), which is about three-quarters of a run below his xFIP (5.13) during his stay in the rotation.

DK projections also see plenty of value in the opposing lineup despite Zach Plesac being a top projected value tonight. It’s all about pricing and it’s low on either side of this matchup, while LHBs own a .322 wOBA and .350 xwOBA against Plesac this year. Akil Baddoo (6 wRC+ in a small sample), Jeimer Candelario (69 wRC+) and Victor Reyes (109 wRC+) all cost less than $2.5K. They’re not good (69 wRC+ vs RHP as a team), but they’re incredibly cheap.

FanDuel also projects a pair of top five values in the St Louis lineup against Hunter Greene, who has a 28.9 K%, but also a 10.0 BB% and 10.4% Barrels/BBE. While 22 of his 23 barrels leaving the park is bound to regress, especially in a park like St Louis, LHBs do have a wOBA and xwOBA within three points of .320 against him. Dylan Carlson (83 wRC+) and Tommy Edman (100 wRC+) are within $100 of $2.5K each.

Lastly, a pair of White Sox are also top 10 projected values against Devin Smeltzer, who has allowed 13 home runs on 15 barrels (10.9%) over his last eight starts and has surrendered a .319 wOBA (.346 xwOBA) to RHBs this year. Yoan Moncada (64 wRC+) and A.J. Pollock (145 wRC+, .271 ISO) cost less than $2.5K on FanDuel.