DFS Alerts
Start of Tuesday's TOR-BOS game will be delayed due to rain
The beginning of tonight’s game between the Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox will start in a rain delay. There is currently no estimated start time for the contest to get underway. Kevin Roth had the risk of this game graded as YELLOW/GREEN due to a few storms currently in the area. The good news is that this game is highly likely to play through upon the conclusion of the initial delay. Obviously, batters remain firmly in play considering the chance of postponement is minuscule to none at all.
As reported by: Rob Longley
J.D. Martinez officially scratched from the Tigers lineup, Mahtook now batting 5th with Alex Presley hitting 8th
The Martinez trade is now official, so he’s been scratched from the Tigers lineup. Mikie Mahtook will move up to the fifth spot with Alex Presley now playing the OF and batting 8th.
As reported by: @DetroitTigersPR
J.D. Martinez traded to the Diamondbacks, very likely to be scratched from tonight's lineup; will continue to update
Martinez has been traded to the D’Backs, so it seems like a foregone conclusion that he’ll be scratched from tonight’s Tigers lineup unless trade talks haven’t progressed as far as the media is leading on. We’ll continue to update.
As reported by: Jeff Passan Low cost batter options to compliment Kershaw are available in the lower half of lineups tonight
Players looking to save money on bats to pay up for pitching tonight have a few options, especially if willing to use some lower lineup bats. Chris Herrmann is low cost on either site ($2.1K on FD) and has an ISO above .200 vs RHP. He faces rookie Sal Romano in power friendly Cincinnati. On FanDuel, Yasiel Puig (132 wRC+, .267 ISO vs RHP this year) costs just $2.5K on FanDuel. The Dodgers have the second highest implied run line tonight, nearing six runs. Steve Pearce ($2.8K on FD) has a 159 wRC+ and .302 ISO against LHP since last season and RHBs have a .376 wRC+ against Brian Johnson. On DraftKings, Matt Chapman moves up to the fifth spot against lefty Blake Snell. He costs the minimum on DraftKings. Eugenio Suarez (128 wRC+, .227 ISO vs LHP since last year) costs $2.9K against Robbie Ray (RHBs .324 wOBA since last season).
Other tagged players: Chris Herrmann, Steve Pearce, Eugenio Suarez, Matt Chapman
Dodgers surge over a third of a run upwards over the course of the afternoon
The Los Angeles Dodgers have surged ahead of the Yankees to the second highest run line tonight with a move from 5.59 early this afternoon to 5.96 currently. They are behind only the Colorado Rockies, who suffer a modest drop from 6.22 to 6.16 with the absence of one of their top hitters (Nolan Arenado) from tonight’s lineup. Other offenses that have risen at least two-tenths of a run this afternoon are Boston and Chicago (NL) each from 4.81 to 5.06 and 5.02 and Toronto from 4.69 to 4.94. Atlanta is the only team to see a drop that large, going from 4.69 runs to 4.48 currently. Seventeen teams currently have an implied run line better than 4.8 tonight. Players can track run line movement for all teams on the Vegas Odds page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds A few potential pop-ups, but no large concerns in the evening forecast
Kevin mentions a few spots where pop-up storms could delay things a bit at worst tonight (Baltimore, Atlanta, Colorado), but as long as Clayton Kershaw appears safe (and he is), there are no real concerns for any of the few strong pitching candidates tonight. Players can read the full report on the Weather page and be sure to follow Kevin on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates, should anything change.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page Clayton Kershaw and a weak pitching slate should spread out hitter ownership tonight
An interesting dynamic occurs tonight where the Rockies are the only offense projected for more than six runs, but a combination of the absence of Nolan Arenado from the lineup, Clayton Kershaw on the mound ahead of a weak pitching slate, and more than half the boards with an implied run line above 4.7 runs could generate lower than normal ownership rates for the top team. It’s completely unsurprising that Kershaw is projected as the most popular arm on the slate, but what might be unexpected is Mike Clevinger’s potential popularity behind him and even potentially competing with Kershaw for the top ownership rate on DraftKings. Gary Sanchez is expected to be the most popular bat against Bartolo Colon tonight, debuting for Minnesota, but beyond that, things look to spread out as players may struggle to construct lineups with Kershaw. A sneaky play tonight could be Rafael Montero at $6K on either site with minimal ownership expectations. He has a 20.0 K-BB% in 19.1 innings since returning to the majors a month ago and has managed contact well all season (82.8 mph aEV). Projected ownership rates are updated throughout the day and are available for all players to premium subscribers on the Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Mike Clevinger, Gary Sanchez, Rafael Montero Twelve of tonight's 30 pitchers have a 40% ground ball rate or lower (last two calendar years).
It’s a fly ball night. Twelve of tonight’s 30 pitchers have a 40% ground ball rate or lower (last two calendar years). We can use Baseball Reference to find which teams have done well or poorly against fly ball pitchers. At the top of the pile, we find the Dodgers (119 sOPS+) against Miguel Gonzalez (39.6 GB%). They have a top three implied run line and should be well represented in daily fantasy lineups. Colorado is the next best offense (109 sOPS+) and owns the top run line tonight (6.22). While Dinelson Lamet exceeds a 30% strikeout rate, this further complicates a 15.1% Barrels/BBE. On the other end of the spectrum, Toronto (88 sOPS+), Texas (87) and San Francisco (84) are all bottom six offenses against fly ball pitchers. The latter may provide the best spot to use a pitcher though. Mike Clevinger has a 12.9 BB% that often detracts from his 27.5 K%. The Giants don’t strike out much, but the matchup provides a great run prevention spot in an extremely negative run environment against an offense with little power. (25 Hard%, 6.1 HR/FB at home, 9.0 HR/FB, 28.4 Hard% vs RHP). Alternately, there is only one true ground ball pitcher on the slate with a sample size of 10 starts (Sam Gaviglio 50.3 GB%). Tyson Ross has a 54.2 GB% in 20 starts over the last two calendar years, but just a 38.9 GB% since returning from injury in five starts this year.
As reported by: Baseball-Reference GB/FB Team Splits Other tagged players: Miguel Gonzalez, Dinelson Lamet Elite Outfield bats lead Player Projections tonight
Elite OF bats top the RotoGrinders Player Projections tonight with Charlie Blackmon, Aaron Judge, Mike Trout and Bryce Harper topping the board and Nolan Arenado giving Colorado two of the top five overall. The BAT gives Freddie Freeman a boost, including him in the top three. With a 170 wRC+ and .325 ISO vs RHP in a new park that rewards power, facing a struggling pitcher in John Lackey, that looks like a strong call. The Cruz Model finds Freeman and Blackmon behind Josh Donaldson, Cody Bellinger and Logan Morrison. All three projection systems are available on the site with the BAT requiring a subscription. FanDuel projections (RotoGrinders Player Projections) like Marcus Semien (3.91 Pt/$/K), Matt Holliday (3.89 Pt/$/K) and Chris Davis (3.86 Pt/$/K) as top values, while on DraftKings, another Oakland bat vies for top value honors. Matt Chapman (2.94 Pt/$/K) leads Chris Davis (2.82) by a small margin.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Aaron Judge, Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Freddie Freeman, Marcus Semien, Chris Davis, Matt Chapman, Matt Holliday, Nolan Arenado Four pitchers exceed a 30% strikeout rate tonight, but all may not be usable
Although not all with enough innings to qualify, there are four pitchers on tonight’s slate with a strikeout rate exceeding 30%, yet Clayton Kershaw is still far and away the top choice tonight where some of those other arms are questionably even usable. Kershaw (9.05) is slightly ahead of Robbie Ray (8.89) on the Daily K Predictor and has struck out 36 of his last 84 batters. He’s the clear top projected pitcher well ahead of Ray via the RotoGrinders Player Projections. The issue with Ray is that he’s walked at least four in each of his last five starts with a 38.2 Hard% over that span. A tough park may play some part in contact issues and though Cincinnati is an overall upgrade, it actually plays more power friendly. That said, he’s still the clear number two arm on tonight’s slate. Dinelson Lamet has a 30.9 K%, but travels to Coors with a 15.1% Barrels/BBE. Brad Peacock has a 32.1 K%, but a 14.1 BB% makes his 26.3 K% over the last month a bit riskier, especially when he can’t sustain a 1.4 HR/FB. On the cheaper end, perhaps worth speculating on may be Rafael Montero. The former prospect has a 20.0 K-BB% (12.5 SwStr%) since his most recent call up a month ago (19.1 IP). While it’s an incredibly small sample size, he has carried a 26 Hard% over this span with a board low 82.8 mph aEV for the season. He faces an average offense (Cardinals) in a great park at a low cost ($6K on either site) on a board lacking in quality arms.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Robbie Ray, Dinelson Lamet, Brad Peacock, Rafael Montero Xander Bogaerts scratched Tuesday; Deven Marrero will play SS and bat 8th
Bogaerts has been removed from Tuesday’s lineup, which will afford Deven Marrero the chance to start at SS and bat 8th. Brock Holt will play 3rd and bat 9th.
As reported by: Scott Lauber Christian Yelich has two HRs and a 93.4 mph aEV in 11 PAs against Vince Velasquez
Just three batters tonight have more than a single HR against tonight’s opposing pitcher, while only five active ones have at least 10 recorded BBEs in the Statcast era (since 2015) according to Baseball Savant. Fortunately, the only batter with an aEV above 90 mph matches up with multiple HRs. Christian Yelich has homered twice against Vince Velasquez in 11 PAs. He has put the ball in play all 11 times with a 93.4 mph aEV. Unfortunately, Yelich’s power has taken a major step backwards this season with just a .121 ISO vs RHP with a ground ball rate nearing 60%, but part of the appeal against Velasquez is his career 35.8 GB% against LHBs with a .343 wOBA allowed since last year.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Matchups Other tagged players: Vince Velasquez A pair of Third Basemen are the league's hottest bats since the break.
Anthony Rendon has taken his dissatisfaction about not being named an All-Star out on opposing pitchers since the break with a 397 wRC+, 45.5 Hard% and three HRs, good enough for the top wRC+ in baseball (10 PA min.) by over 50 points. Jesse Chavez has a .345 wOBA allowed to RHBs since last season. Another third baseman, rookie Matt Chapman, follows (341 wRC+, 44.4 Hard%, two HRs). He faces Blake Snell (RHBs .339 wOBA career). Brandon Phillips has a 326 wRC+, but with just a 26.7 Hard% (one HR) since the break. John Lackey has held RHBs to a .285 wOBA since last season, but with a 35.4 Hard%. Over his last five starts, he’s allowed eight HRs with just 14 strikeouts. Three of those HRs have gone to RHBs, who have a 34 Hard% over that span. Mike Napoli (313 wRC+, 50 Hard%, two HRs) faces Dylan Bundy. RHBs have a .321 wOBA against him since last season, but with just a 34.7 GB%. Napoli has a 48.5% fly ball rate against RHPs over the same span. Steve Pearce (308 wRC+, 54.6 Hard%, two HRs) has mashed LHP since last season (159 wRC+, .302 ISO). RHBs have a .376 wOBA, 36.7 Hard% against Brian Johnson since last season.
Other tagged players: Matt Chapman, Brandon Phillips, Mike Napoli, Steve Pearce Affordable San Diego bats at Coors (5.28 implied runs) could help pay for Kershaw
While the Rockies, just as yesterday, are the only team implied above six runs, more than half a run above the next highest team (Yankees 5.62), the difference is that 17 of 30 offenses tonight have a run line above 4.75 runs, which should spread out offense. Further thought may keep a lot of those high cost bats low owned on a pitching deficient slate where Clayton Kershaw could be some monstrous chalk tonight. Other considerations are that the Rockies are facing a pitcher who allows a ton of hard contact (15.1% Barrels/BBE), but Dinelson Lamet has a 30.9 K% and may be in some lineups at $7K or less, muting the ownership of Colorado bats. There’s also the possibility that the Yankees are still suffering hangover effects of a marathon weekend in Boston, having been shut down by Adalberto Mejia. The Padres are the other team at Coors and 5.28 runs could be considered low for that park against Antonio Senzatela. With a 4.6 ERA/SIERA and just 7.0 SwStr%, there could/should be a concentration on San Diego bats, a stack of which could still net you Kershaw if done correctly. Wil Myers (111 wRC+, .205 ISO vs RHP since last season) is the highest costing bat on either site ($4.1K DK/$4K FD) with most projected starters well below that on FanDuel. Hector Sanchez was a last minute replacement last night. He homered and has a 118 wRC+, .275 ISO vs RHP since last season. Carlos Asuaje has a career 109 wRC+ vs RHP, but a 150 wRC+ (41.7 Hard%) since the break. Cory Spangenberg has a 243 wRC+ since the break. All three are LHBs and Antonio Senzatela has allowed a .335 wOBA to batters from that side this year.
Other tagged players: Wil Myers, Carlos Asuaje, Cory Spangenberg, Antonio Senzatela, Clayton Kershaw Start of Monday's CHC-ATL game will be delayed due to rain
The beginning of tonight’s game between the Chicago Cubs and Atlanta Braves will start in a rain delay. There is currently no estimated start time for the contest to get underway. Kevin Roth had the risk of this game graded as YELLOW due to the probability of storms passing through the area. The good news is that a pregame delay brightens the outlook for starting pitchers in this matchup, such as Jon Lester, opposed to a delay mid-game. Obviously, batters remain firmly in play considering the likelihood this game plays through upon the conclusion of the initial delay.
As reported by: Official Twitter Account of the Atlanta Braves