DFS Alerts

Hector Sanchez now batting cleanup for SD, replacing the injured Austin Hedges

If you’re able to pivot to Sanchez as a punt play, it’s a viable move across the industry. He’s hitting clean-up against German Marquez, and it’s not all that often we’re able to find solid value at the heart of the order in Coors.

Austin Hedges scratched Monday

Hedges has reportedly passed all of his concussion tests, but isn’t feeling quite well enough to take the field just yet. Hector Sanchez will now catch and bat 4th, making him a viable punt play in Coors Field.

Kansas City up one-third of a run, several others increase implied totals since early afternoon

The Kansas City Royals have the largest implied run increase since early this afternoon (5.15 to 5.48). Both they and Baltimore (5.37 to 5.65) leap frog Houston, who remains steady at 5.48. No offense has seen a large decline, though Texas (5.13 to 5.35), Tampa Bay (4.56 to 4.81) and Oakland (4.44 to 4.69) have all increased by at least 0.22 runs as well. The totals for both teams in a Texas/Baltimore game featuring hot weather and HR prone pitching and a Tampa Bay/Oakland game with long ball tendencies have increased. While Detroit has also moved from 4.85 to 5.02 runs that increase has been doubled by the home team, as the Royals now have the third highest implied total on the evening, facing Jordan Zimmermann with an ERA approaching six on the season. Players can track run line movement for all teams on the Vegas Odds page.

Charlie Blackmon and Elvis Andrus expected to be tonight's most popular bats

Charlie Blackmon is projected to be the most popular bat on the slate and for good reason at home against a RHP who allows a .375 wOBA to LHBs for his career. Elvis Andrus is the only other batter expected to be at or above 20% on either site though. In a nice spot in Baltimore, Andrus is affordable ($3.9K DK, $3.1K FD) against Chris Tillman, who has allowed 11 HRs over his last seven starts. There are several offenses facing HR prone pitchers projected for reasonable or low ownership rates, including the Athletics and Cubs. On the mound, Lance McCullers is expected to far exceed the popularity of any other pitcher. Jon Lester has a healthy 30% projected ownership rate behind him on DraftKings, but just 10% on FanDuel. Players could be wary of recent struggles or rain delay concerns, but if Kevin remains optimistic about the weather, he’s certainly worth a shot at that low a rate. Projected Ownership rates are available updated throughout the day and are available to premium subscribers on the Projected Ownership page.

Several games with some uncertainty (YELLOW) in Kevin's evening update

Kevin’s evening forecast is full of YELLOW and uncertainty with delays possible in Baltimore (vs Toronto), New York NL (vs St Louis), Atlanta (vs Chicago NL), and Colorado ( San Diego). The biggest concern for pitching in those games would likely be for Jon Lester and Marcus Stroman, which may make Lance McCullers even more popular. There doesn't appear to be enough information yet to consider fading any arms based on weather concerns, but this is definitely an evening where players will want to follow Kevin on Twitter (KevinRothWx) for further updates. The full report can be read on the Weather page.

Examining the Oakland lineup against HR prone Jake Odorizzi with PlateIQ

Jake Odorizzi still has a 20.1 K% and 11.1 SwStr%, but he’s a fly ball pitcher (31.6 GB%), who’s HR rate has exploded this year (18.0 HR/FB) with 8.3% of his batted balls being categorized as Barrels by Statcast. Even more interesting is that though he has a career reverse split and 13 of his 20 HRs have been surrendered to RHBs this year, his wOBA is 18 points higher against LHBs this year (.346 to .328). However, his hard contact rate is a full 20 points higher against RHBs (45% to 25%). Brooks Baseball has him throwing a four pitch mix (Fourseam, Slider, Cutter, Splitter) to RHBs all at least 13% of the time this year, while going with the Fourseam and Splitter 90% of the time against LHBs. PitchIQ has him living up and away to batters from either side with a few more pitches low and away to opposite handed batters. Looking at the batters in tonight’s projected lineup and leaving off a couple of small sample sizes near the bottom, Matt Joyce, Yonder Alonso and Jed Lowrie all handle pitches away fairly well though none are proficient against pitches up in the zone. Alonzo and Lowrie have hit Splitters well, which are more traditionally down in the zone. Over the last two seasons, no RHB projected to be in the lineup handles pitches up very well, though Ryon Healy and Khris Davis have done okay against pitches away in the middle of the zone. Each have handled most of Odorizzi’s pitch mix fairly well with Healy having a Hit% 1.4x the average against Sliders in his career. Matt Chapman has a very small sample size, but costs near the minimum and has been hitting the ball well (140 wRC+, .333 ISO vs RHP).

Houston and Milwaukee have multiple bats atop the RotoGrinders Player Projections tonight

Charlie Blackmon is the top projected bat according to the RotoGrinders Player Projections. He sits atop the lineup for the only offense with an implied run line above six tonight. While Luis Perdomo has kept RHBs grounded, his rate dips to 54.5% against LHBs in his career with a .375 wOBA allowed (38.6 Hard%). Aaron Judge and George Springer trail him on either site. The Yankees played a lot of baseball over the weekend (16 innings Saturday, double-header Sunday) prior to traveling to Minnesota after the late game on ESPN. Judge was robbed of a HR last night, but has just a -25 wRC+ and 16.7 Hard% since the break. He should be young enough to handle the workload, but there is some motive for a fade tonight. George Springer has hammed LHP (172 wRC+, .310 ISO since last year) and Ariel Miranda particularly (three HRs in nine PAs with a 94.6 mph aEV according to Baseball Savant). Despite the high run total for Colorado, Houston (Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa) and Milwaukee (Travis Shaw, Eric Thames) are the only two teams with multiple players among the top 10 projections. Value hunters might consider Matt Chapman (2.63 Pt/$/K) for $2.1K on DraftKings. He has a 477 wRC+ and 57.1 Hard% since the break and Jake Odorizzi has allowed multiple HRs in four of his last seven starts. Recent callups Garrett Cooper (3.75 Pt/$/K) and Nick Williams (3.62 Pt/$/K) are top value projections on FanDuel at minimal cost.

On a slate with inept pitching, Zack Wheeler stands out as a low-cost SP2

Zack Wheeler is in search of his second consecutive quality start as he faces off against the St. Louis Cardinals tonight following a brutal three-start stretch where he allowed at least seven earned runs twice and failed to make it past the fourth inning each time. Wheeler has continued to pitch well to right-handed batters this year, something he thrived at in his last full season in the Majors. Although his strikeout rate is much lower than we’d expect going forward, his 52.6% ground ball and 28.8% hard hit rates are more than respectable and fall right in line with his career numbers. With that said, the low 17.3% strikeout rate to righties in 2017 is still likely fluky due to the small sample size, as Wheeler owns a 22.2% career strikeout right versus right-handed batters. A big issue for Wheeler has always been left-handed hitters, but his strikeout rate has ballooned to 25.9% thus far, though his 9.8% walk rate, below-average 40.0% groundball rate, and high 41.1% hard hit rate do not indicate any kind of sustained success against lefties going forward. The good news for Wheeler is that he only has to deal with two proven left-handed bats in this Cardinals lineup, with Matt Carpenter and Dexter Fowler being the main lefties he will need to work around to post another successful outing. Wheeler’s upside still isn’t massive, but the matchup with a Cardinals squad that is essentially an average offense versus right-handed pitching and price tag make him a more than viable SP2 on DraftKings for cash games and tournaments on a slate lacking clear-cut starting pitching options.

Lance McCullers has allowed eight ERs over last 9.2 innings, but with 12.2 SwStr%, -8.6 Hard-Soft%

Although three pitchers sit higher on the Daily K Predictor than Lance McCullers at 5.55, he should be the easy and safest pitching choice tonight at home against Seattle. The RotoGrinders Player Projections see it that way as well, as he’s the only pitcher projected for more than 20 points on DraftKings tonight. It may appear as if he’s struggled with eight ERs over his last 9.2 innings, but with a 12.2 SwStr%, 62.9 GB% and -8.6 Hard-Soft%, there doesn’t appear to be much reason for concern. Seattle also has just an 83 sOPS+ against ground ball pitchers. There are other interesting arms on the slate, like Jon Lester, projected for the most strikeouts (6.31) via the Daily K Predictor, but he’s gotten absolutely hammered over his last two starts (5.2 IP – 15 H – 16 R – 9 ER – 3 HR – 4 BB – 6 K – 37 BF). He seems to have had a difficult time throwing strike one, forcing him to come with more hittable fastballs. One approach tonight might be to look for projected ownership numbers and adjust exposure accordingly, potentially hedging against him if playing multiple lineups. If recent outings are going to scare players away, you still want to consider the long term body of work, but he may be worth fading or limiting exposure if it looks like he’s going to be highly owned. Marcus Stroman leads all qualified pitchers in ground ball rate (60.9%) and has a league average strikeout rate (20.4%), but he does not stifle contact (88.3 mph aEV) and though the Red Sox have just a 90 wRC+ at home and 92 wRC+ vs RHP, they make contact and Fenway isn’t very forgiving. Luis Perdomo with a 67% ground ball rate and near league average stirkeout rate may be interesting in combination with McCullers on DraftKings for $4.9K. The Rockies have a major league worst 76 wRC+ vs RHP. Brent Suter could be the other low cost arm to consider. He has struck out 13 of 48 with a 0.0 Hard-Soft% over two starts this month. In 27.1 total innings this season, he has a 15.0 K-BB% with excellent contact management (3.8 Hard-Soft%). Pittsburgh is a significant park upgrade for him as well.

George Springer has smoked three HRs with a 94.6 mph aEV against Ariel Miranda

According to Baseball Savant, not only does George Springer have three HRs in nine PAs against Ariel Miranda, but he also has a 94.6 mph aEV on seven batted balls. No other player on the slate has as many HRs against the pitcher they are facing tonight, though Nolan Arenado is the only batter who exceeds a 90 mph aEV on those who have two. In nine PAs and eight BBEs against Luis Perdomo, he’s averaged a 96.6 mph aEV. Perdomo has held RHBs to a 68.3 GB% since entering the league though. Another ground ball pitcher, Marcus Stroman (RHBs 59.6 GB% since last season) does not have much a split and a couple of Red Sox have hit him fairly hard. Xander Bogaerts has one HR, but three extra-base hits in 20 PAs with a 97.4 mph aEV (14 BBEs) and Mookie Betts has just a double in 19 PAs, but a 96.1 mph aEV on 12 BBEs. On the other side of that matchup, Jose Bautista has an interesting history with Eduardo Rodriguez. In 15 PAs, he has just one HR and one K, but a 94.4 mph aEV (12 BBEs).

Yankees travel to Minnesota off a long weekend of baseball (16 innings Saturday, DH Sunday)

The first inclination might be that the Yankees are going to make mince meat of Adalberto Mejia (4.43 ERA, 5.08 SIERA, 8% Barrels/BBE), who has just a 16.7 K% over the last month, but the Yankees have just an 84 wRC+ vs LHP this year and have played a lot of baseball over the last few days. Beginning with a 16 inning affair on Saturday, they then played a day/night double-header on Sunday, including the late game on ESPN, after which they traveled to Minnesota. Catching all 16 innings on Saturday and then nine more last night, Gary Sanchez could be the player most negatively affected if he isn’t given the night off tonight. Older Yankees like Matt Holliday, Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury could show some wear as well. While this is in no way an endorsement of Mejia, who may need a lot more than some tired bats with his 11.1 BB%, this is at least a spot where some caution may need to be exercised. Though Aaron Judge was robbed of a HR last night, even he has a -25 wRC+ and 16.7 Hard% now since the break.

Several recently HR prone pitchers on tonight's start, including Jake Odorizzi (multiple HRs in four of seven starts)

Colorado is the only offense with an implied run line above six, nearly three quarters of a run higher than any other team tonight, though 12 of 24 tonight are at 4.78 runs or higher on a pitching deficient evening. Only four offenses have an implied run line below 4.36 in fact. Colorado may not necessarily be the chalk stack tonight though. They have the lowest wRC+ in the majors against RHP (76) with a 15.2 K-BB% and 9.1 Hard-Soft%. Meanwhile, they face a pitcher (Luis Perdomo), who has generated two-thirds of his contact on the ground. Even at Coors, ground balls don’t leave the yard. In fact, at a very low cost and complimenting that ground ball rate with a nearly league average strikeout rate, there may be enough support to consider Perdomo, especially as a secondary option on DraftKings. Players may not otherwise need to differentiate their lineups much, though Houston Astros (5.49 implied runs) are sure to be popular against the LH Ariel Miranda, who has a career 5.0 K-BB% and 6.04 xFIP on the road since last season. Twenty-nine of his 32 career HRs surrendered have been hit by RHBs. George Springer (172 wRC+, .310 ISO vs LHP since last season) may and/or should be the most popular bat on the slate. He costs the same as Charlie Blackmon on FanDuel ($5.6K), but $500 less on FanDuel. If players are looking for a potential value play today and are willing to sacrifice Nolan Arenado, Matt Chapman may be worth a look at third base for $2.5K or less on either site. In a small sample, he has a 140 wRC+ and .333 ISO vs RHP with a 40.9 Hard% and 59.1% fly ball rate, while Jake Odorizzi has allowed RHBs a .338 wOBA and 37.5 Hard% since last season. In fact, he has failed to allow a HR just once this season and has allowed multiple HRs in four of his last seven. He’s one of several pitchers who have been very home run prone recently on tonight’s slate. Julio Teheran just snapped a nine game span where he allowed 15 HRs, Tom Koehler has allowed 12 in 10 starts, Josh Tomlin had allowed eight of his 17 on the year in five start stretch just prior to his last time out, and Chris Tillman has allowed 11 over his last seven starts.

Offense should rule the day in MLB DFS today as no game has a run total under 8.5

The week kicks off with a nice 12 game evening slate (there is one afternoon game between Washington and the Reds) and it should be one filled with plenty of offense as there is a Coors Field game and no game features a dominant ace on the mound. In fact, the lowest run total on the slate is 8.5 and that is in the slate’s last game of the night between Cleveland (with Josh Tomlin on the mound) and the Giants (with Matt Moore starting). There are three games with run totals topping 10, including the aforementioned Coors Field game where Colorado hosts the Padres. The other two games topping that double-digit mark are Texas (Cashner) at Baltimore (Tillman) and Detroit (Zimmermann) at Kansas City (Vargas). The latter seems a bit out of the ordinary considering Royals starter Jason Vargas has allowed more than 3 ER’s only once in his last nine starts (it was in his last start however so perhaps Vegas feels regression is coming his way). Zimmermann is certainly vulnerable as he has allowed at least four runs in his last three outings without getting past six innings of work.

The top pitching options on the slate would likely go to Lance McCullers of the Astros the clear-cut top option and cash game lock. Others that are worthy of GPP consideration but might require you to hold your breath a bit as you hit the Submit Roster button are Jon Lester, Eduardo Rodriguez, Zack Wheeler, and Jake Odorizzi.

Brandon Belt scratched Sunday; Nick Hundley replaces and will bat sixth

Belt has officially been scratched from the San Francisco Giants lineup for today’s game against the San Diego Padres due to a sprained left wrist. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Nick Hundley, who will take over at catcher and bat sixth, moving Buster Posey to first base. This lineup change will bump Hunter Pence up to the three-hole in the batting order. However, the remainder of the Giants previously confirmed lineup will remain unchanged.

Rich Hill is severely overpriced on DraftKings for Sunday's main slate

Rich Hill is in the midst of a three-start stretch where he has pitched seven innings in each outing and allowed no more than three earned runs while striking out at least nine batters in two of the three aforementioned appearances. While those numbers sound fantastic, they need to be taken with a grain of salt as Hill’s two most impressive starts in that stretch came against the San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks, who each rank in the bottom-three in the Majors in wOBA against left-handed pitching with astronomical 25.8% and 25.9% strikeout rates respectively. With that said, it should still be expected that Hill will have a strong outing this afternoon against the Miami Marlins, but for nearly $12K on DraftKings, we will likely need much more than strong outing from him to contend in large-field tournaments. As briefly mentioned, the matchup for Hill is relatively neutral, as the Marlins have a solid .323 wOBA but have lacked power for some reason versus left-handed pitching. They also strike out just 19.9% of the time, though they do only have a 7.5% walk rate, which is below-average, and big news for Hill’s potential backers on Sunday’s slate given his 11.3% walk rate this year and 10.3% walk rate in his career. So even with a 27.3% strikeout rate, it is going to be extremely difficult for Hill to pay off his DraftKings price tag in this spot more often than not, especially once you consider the fact that he rarely is allowed to exceed 100 pitches in a start, likely capping him at around six or seven innings of work. Hill remains firmly in play for all formats on FanDuel given the massive difference in salaries, but he becomes a relatively easy fade on DraftKings on a slate where hitting looks to be the prevailing priority for cash games and tournaments.