DFS Alerts
Brandon McCarthy has been an elite contact manger, but has struck out just 14 of last 131 BF
Brandon McCarthy has been one of, if not the top contact manager in baseball (84 mph aEV, 1.6% Barrels/BBE, 20.9% 95+ mph EV), though that’s not necessarily forward projecting and he’s sacrificed half his strikeout rate to get there (14 of last 131 batters). A progressive thinker and constant tinkerer, it could be a conscious shift, but it certainly makes him less daily fantasy useful. A 4.9 HR/FB may not be sustainable. While the Braves have a very low 3.32 implied run line, the RotoGrinders Player Projections have McCarthy in the middle of the pack, while the Daily K Predictor has him as the low man on the board tonight (3.62). Not having shown much of a platoon split batted ball wise this year, Freddie Freeman (169 wRC+, .324 ISO vs RHP since last season) is always a strong play. Brandon Phillips (269 wRC+) and Ender Inciarte (146 wRC+) have been the only above average hitters in the lineup since the break. Matt Kemp is having a strong season against RHP also (118 wRC+, .202 ISO), but this probably not a spot where players should want too much offensive exposure, while the lack of strikeouts make McCarthy virtually unusable.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Matt Kemp, Ender Inciarte, Brandon Phillips, Freddie Freeman
Michael Fulmer has struck out just nine of his last 81 batters, but gone at least 8 IP in three of last four
Michael Fulmer has a declining strikeout rate (just nine of his last 81 batters), but strong contact management (85.6 mph aEV, 27.4% 95+ mph EV) has led him to a .266 BABIP and 6.3 HR/FB that may not be sustainable, but could serve him well against an impatient Kansas City offense (6.3 BB% vs RHP) without much power (9.1 HR/FB). He’s gone at least eight innings in three of four starts and these Kansas City traits should keep his pitch count low enough that it’s a strong possibility again. A warm and humid forecast makes it a more power friendly environment than that big park usually is, which is somewhat of a concern when paying more than $9K for mostly contact managment. The Royals are smack in the middle of the board with a 4.44 implied run line, but the Daily K Predictor only has Fulmer for 3.84 tonight (second lowest) even though the RotoGrinders Player Projections have him as either the third or fourth best arm tonight without any Kansas City bats grading out particularly strongly. Eric Hosmer (120 wRC+, .178 ISO vs RHP since last season) does have a 100.5 mph aEV (seven BBEs) with a HR against him in 13 PAs. Hitting the ball hard has never been his problem though. It’s been getting it off the ground (24.7 FB% vs RHP since last season vs Fulmer’s 48.2 GB% vs LHBs). Fulmer has little platoon split for his career, holding all batters below a .280 wOBA, though LHBs have a 31.3 Hard% (exactly four points higher than RHBs). While both Mike Moustakas and Salvador Perez have a 120+ wRC+, .240+ ISO vs RHP this year, neither has a wRC+ above 50 since the All-Star break. Aside from Whit Merrifield (177 wRC+), it’s been the bottom of the Kansas City order than’s come out hammering since the break. Alcides Escobar (177 wRC+, 40 Hard%) and Brandon Moss (136 wRC+, 33.3 Hard%) are the only other batters in the lineup above a 75 wRC+ over the last week. This spot seems to call for either siding with Fulmer or fading, but buyer beware that he may not have the strikeout capabilities to make up for any trouble he finds himself in tonight. One additional consideration is that Fulmer throws his slider 30% of the time to RHBs and PlateIQ tells us that most Kansas City RHBs have handled the slider well this year, while Moustakas and Moss handle the change fairly well (Fulmer’s favored secondary pitch against LHBs).
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: Whit Merrifield, Eric Hosmer, Brandon Moss, Alcides Escobar, Mike Moustakas, Salvador Perez Cole Hamels allowing 38.9% Hard% to RHB this season
This could cause him some trouble tonight against the Orioles, who are projected to start eight righty bats. Manny Machado (51.3% Hard%, 40.3% FB%, .224 ISO, .332 wOBA vs, LHP this year), Wellington Castillo (47.5% Hard%, 37.5% FB%, .138 ISO, .336 wOBA), Jonathan Schoop (38.6% Hard%, 38.6% FB%, .283 ISO, .392 wOBA), and Trey Mancini (34.6% Hard%, 30.6% FB%, .163 ISO, and .285 wOBA) all have solid hard contact rates in split this season. Mark Trumbo’s hard contact rate has dropped 8.5% to 29.0% against lefties since last season and his ISO has fallen with it from .212 to .126. Although he maintains an appealing 43.4% FB%, his HR/FB rate is well below is 19.6% career average at 12.1%. These guys have strikeout rates between 18.3%-30.0%, but it’s not a huge concern against Hamels, who’s struck out just 14.1% of the 185 RHB he’s faced this year and has an overall SwStr% of 7.8%. So far this year, Hamels has limited righties to a .231 BABIP despite a high level of hard contact plus his 5.06 SIERA is much higher than his 3.05 ERA, indicating he’s due for some negative regression. Baltimore is an appealing team to stack tonight – their implied total of 5.06 is just 0.02 runs shy of the Dodgers, who lead tonight’s slate – but they’ll likely come with high ownership considering they’re one of three teams projected to score more than 4.56 runs and there are only five games going. Be sure to check out official lineups and projected ownership later this afternoon.
Other tagged players: Jonathan Schoop, Welington Castillo, Trey Mancini, Mark Trumbo
Late inning rain possible for ARI-CIN game (YELLOW/GREEN)
Some storms are headed to Cincinnati this afternoon, but we’re expecting them to hold off until after the game. It’s possible we’ll see some rain in the later innings though, which adds a little risk to this matchup. We’ve downgraded this one to YELLOW/GREEN.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Luis Castillo leads Thursday's starters with a 13.0% SwStr%
Through five starts in the bigs, Castillo has posted a 29.3% K% – 29.2% against LHB and 29.3% against RHB – and he’s struck out eight or more in three of those outings. Today, he’ll face a Diamondbacks lineup with a pitcher-friendly 24.6% strikeout rate. Notably, all eight batters have k-rates of 18.5% or higher, with seven of them striking out at least 21.1% of the time. PlateIQ shows a combined ISO of .198 though, which presents some risk, but the Diamondbacks have the third-lowest projected run total (4.61). On top of that, their implied total has dropped 0.58 runs since opening despite 60% of the moneyline wagers being placed on them, signaling reverse line movement. Castillo is one of several cheap options this afternoon, but he sticks out among them in this spot. In addition to some strikeout upside, he has the highest GB% (56.2%) among Thursday’s starters and the second-lowest SIERA (3.85) on the early slate behind only Jimmy Nelson (3.41), who costs $4.8k more on DraftKings and an extra $1.7k on FanDuel. Castillo is our top projected pitched under $8k on FD and ranks second among pitchers under $7k on DK.
TOR-BOS (YELLOW/GREEN) only game on early slate with weather concerns
We’re looking at some isolated pop-ups in the Boston area that shouldn’t have a major impact on this afternoon’s game, but it’s something to keep an eye on. As with all four games on the early slate, it’ll be very warm – it’s expected to be 90 degrees at first pitch. All of the afternoon matchups are expected to be between 86-91 degrees. Tonight, the TEX-BAL is considered YELLOW for isolated pop-ups, but if the rain holds off, we’ll get some hitter-friendly conditions – 94 degrees with humidity expected to rise above 50%. It’s going to be 96 for the DET-KC game while it’ll be much cooler for the ATL-LAD (76 degrees) and SD-SF (63 degrees) matchups. Check out our weather page for the complete forecast and follow Kevin on Twitter @KevinRothWX.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Taijuan Walker (personal) scratched Thursday; Patrick Corbin will start in his place
Walker was scratched Thursday morning due to a family emergency. Corbin will now get the nod against the Reds this afternoon. Over the past seven starts, Corbin has been solid. He’s posted a 3.38 ERA and a 2.90 xFIP despite a .377 BABIP – a number that should decline considering his 27.6% Hard% and 52.6% GB%. His strikeout rate has climbed to 26.9% during that stretch and opposing batters have been limited to a .158 ISO. He’s been lights out against the 39 LHB he’s faced – 41.0% K%, 1.18 xFIP, 19.0% FB%, 23.8% Hard%, .242 wOBA, .081 ISO – which potentially sets up a tough spot for Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett, and Scott Schebler. Cincinnati will start six righties this afternoon; Corbin has allowed a .346 wOBA, .181 ISO, 26.3% FB%, 28.4% Hard%, and a 3.45 xFIP while striking out 22.8% of the 136 RHB he’s gone up against.
As reported by: Jamie Ramsey Other tagged players: Patrick Corbin YELLOW/GREEN for TEX- BAL game headlines Wednesday's MLB forecast
It’s a relatively quiet night on the weather front for tonight’s abbreviated 7 or 8-game slate depending on which site you look at it, as the game with the worst weather “risk” comes to us in Baltimore for the matchup between the Texas Rangers and Baltimore Orioles with a YELLOW/GREEN designation. Kevin Roth has just a few scattered storms in the forecast, which does very little to affect players in this contest, especially since the starting pitchers are not really in play for any format. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page
The Diamondbacks are among the seven teams with implied team totals at 5.0 runs or higher on Wednesday's slate
After a decent start to the 2017 campaign, Tim Adleman has pitched, well, like Tim Adleman of late, allowing three or more earned runs and failing to pitch past the fifth inning in each of his last five starts. So, clearly, he still isn’t the type of pitcher we need to shy away from attacking with opposing hitters. This is especially true given his matchup with an Arizona Diamondbacks squad that just continues to roll, ranking 4th in wOBA and 9th in ISO against right-handed pitching, and not to mention just added another big time bat in J.D. Martinez, who will make his Diamondbacks debut this evening. To this point in his career, Adleman has been a fly ball pitcher to left-handed batters (51.2% FB%) and owns, essentially, neutral splits to righties, though he is surrendering a lot more hard contact (37.9% HH%) against righties opposed to 30.1% against lefties. He also looks to be an average strikeout pitcher (19.2% K%) that has exhibited some questionable control (9.5% BB% in 2017), meaning that there should be expected to be a plethora of baserunners from both sides of the plate Wednesday night. Paul Goldschmidt (172 wRC+, .446 wOBA, .303 ISO vs RHP) and Jake Lamb (148 wRC+, .410 wOBA, .282 ISO vs RHP) and far and away the top overall options to target from this Arizona lineup in all formats, closely followed by the newly acquired Martinez (119 wRC+, .350 wOBA, .247 ISO vs RHP), who should be looking to put on a show in his debut. The secondary tier of Diamondbacks hitters looks to be David Peralta (117 wRC+, .362 wOBA vs RHP), A.J. Pollock (110 wRC+, .351 wOBA vs RHP), and Brandon Drury (117 wRC+, .363 wOBA, .190 ISO vs RHP), though Peralta and Pollock have really lacked individual power this season, making them less appealing options. The aforementioned trio is likely better utilized as stack fillers, whereas, Goldschmidt, Lamb, and Martinez possess enough upside on their own to be viable as both one-offs and core pieces to a Diamondbacks stack in tournaments.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Lines and Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Jake Lamb, JD Martinez, Brandon Drury, David Peralta, A.J. Pollock, Tim Adleman Justin Turner, Chris Taylor, Logan Forsythe all hitting lefties well this season; LAD ranks 2nd in ISO and 3rd in wRC+ against LHP
The Dodgers are setting up as a top stack on the main slate thanks to a bevy of right-handed bats with positive platoon splits, not to mention an otherwise unappealing group of offenses on the eight game schedule (seven if you’re on DK, as they’ve removed the 10:07 game from the slate). Carlos Rodon wasn’t a sieve against right-handed bats last season, as he held them to a respectable 1.44 HR/9 over 131.2 innings and still racks up strikeouts at a high rate. Rodon is still working his way back into form after missing the first half of the season, and a home draw with the Dodgers – who rank 2nd in ISO and 3rd in wRC+ against LHP – isn’t a good way to ease into major league hitting. Justin Turner is the top bat on the LAD side, as he carries a .405 ISO and 249 wRC+ (100 is league average for comparison) against lefties into tonight’s game, not to mention an extremely impressive 42.9 Hd-Sft%. Turner is right there with Jake Lamb as the top 3B target (with Manny Machado a few inches behind), so if you can roster Turner for cheaper, go ahead and do it. Chris Taylor (182 wRC+, .227 ISO) and Logan Forsythe (193 wRC+, .217 ISO) are also viable across the board targets, with Austin Barnes (140 wRC+, .281 ISO) setting up as one of the best punt plays at the catcher spot. Enrique Hernandez, Yasiel Puig and Trayce Thompson also make for potential punt plays as part of a Dodgers stack.
Other tagged players: Logan Forsythe, Chris Taylor, Austin Barnes, Yasiel Puig, Enrique Hernandez, Trayce Thompson, Carlos Rodon
Jacob deGrom continues to sport a career-best and slate-leading 14.0% SwStr%
Jacob deGrom is set to toe the rubber tonight against the St. Louis Cardinals in search of his third double-digit strikeout performance in his last four outings. deGrom has continued to look like an entirely different pitcher throughout the entire first half of the season, but more specifically in the strikeout department. In deGrom’s first two seasons in the Majors, he notched a 25.5% strikeout rate and 11.8% swinging strike rate in 2014 and a 27.3% strikeout rate and 12.7% swinging strike rate in 2015, so clearly he was not quite the elite strikeout pitcher that’s he been to this point in the year. However, last season’s dip in strikeouts was likely the anomaly considering deGrom’s 29.0% strikeout rate and 13.9% swinging strike rate this season would easily both set new career-highs. Adding to the appeal of deGrom on Wednesday’s main slate is the matchup with a Cardinals squad that owns a 21.4% strikeout rate and are nothing more than an average to a below-average offense against right-handed pitching. With that said, there is still potential for some blow-up risk with deGrom given the Cardinals respectable .172 ISO and .325 wOBA against righties, making a deGrom fade in tournaments more than viable should his ownership begin to become too high. However, deGrom still appears to be the safest and probably highest upside starting pitching option on the main slate given the Cardinals low 3.6 runs implied team total and Vegas backing deGrom as a -150 favorite at the time of this writing. This is one of those situations where the reward greatly outweighs the risk, and deGrom should be a cash game staple with tournament winning upside across the industry.
As reported by: FanGraphs Baltimore right-handed bats in a nice spot against Martin Perez, who comes into tonight with a 37.7 Hard% to RHBs
Martin Perez doesn’t really have any positive qualities against right-handed hitters, other than being mildly effective at keeping the ball in the yard. He’s only allowed 9 HRs to right-handed bats on the year (1.07 HR/9), but given the high rate of hard contact he’s allowing (37.7%) and the fact that his GB rate has dropped this season (43.1% to RHs) is going to lead to more balls leaving the yard if they’re being hit hard. Despite being a right-handed heavy lineup, Baltimore doesn’t actually hit LHP all that well outside of a handful of bats. Manny Machado carries an elite 51.3 hard% against LHP into tonight’s game and while his batted ball profile has changed a bit this year (fewer line drives, more fly balls), he sets up as a very nice GPP target in a park that is fairly friendly to the HR ball. Jonathan Schoop (.281 ISO vs. LHP, .375 ISO vs. LHP at home) is a very nice upside target at the keystone spot given his power potential, with Trey Mancini also setting up as a viable target in the 6th spot in the batting order. Adam Jones (.097 ISO) and Mark Trumbo (.130 ISO) both surprisingly struggle against lefties, but they’ve had better success in prior seasons. Neither player sets up as an overly appealing option given that their ownership rates will end up out-matching their upside in this spot. Machado, Schoop and Mancini are the bats worth targeting here.
Other tagged players: Martin Perez, Jonathan Schoop, Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo, Trey Mancini Drew Pomeranz projects as a top points-per-dollar pitching option Wednesday night
He’s the top value on DraftKings ($7.2k) and second on FanDuel ($8.4k) behind only Gio Gonzalez. He’s set to face off against a Blue Jays team that is currently projected to have all nine batters hit from the right side of the plate. This may work in the lefty’s favor as he’s displayed some reverse splits this season – with a sample size of 320 RHB and 89 LHB. Regardless of splits, he’s simply posted some solid numbers against RHB this year, including a .297 wOBA, .139 ISO, and 24.2% Soft%. Toronto’s projected lineup has a combined .318 wOBA and .166 ISO against LHP, which sets up a favorable matchup. The upside may be limited though, considering his 23.1% strikeout rate against RHB (he’s posted a 34.8% against LHB) and the Blue Jays’ 19.7% K% against lefties. Still, with his price on DraftKings, he appears to be a nice SP2 option that can easily be squeezed in alongside deGrom or Greinke, who cost $12.6k and $11.7k, respectively – and are the only two options priced above $8.9k on DK’s main slate. In terms of raw points, Pomeranz checks in as our SP3 in our DK projections model.
Wednesday's MLB forecast clear for early slate
We’re expecting some low-coverage isolated storms in Atlanta and Denver for the CHI-ATL (YELLOW/GREEN) and SD-COL (GREEN/YELLOW) games, but It seems unlikely they’ll have a major impact on the matchups. Be sure to check out the weather page for complete details and follow Kevin on Twitter @KevinRothWX.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Todd Frazier scratched Tuesday; Yolmer Sanchez replaces and will bat seventh
Frazier has officially been scratched from the Chicago White Sox lineup for tonight’s game against the Los Angeles Dodgers due to an unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Yolmer Sanchez, who will take over the third base duties and bat seventh. This lineup change will bump Avisail Garcia, Matt Davidson, and Tyler Saladino all up one spot in the order to fourth, fifth, and sixth respectively. However, the remainder of the White Sox previously confirmed lineup will remain unchanged.
As reported by: Official Twitter Account of the Chicago White Sox Other tagged players: Yolmer Sanchez