DFS Alerts
Not much to monitor in terms of rain delay potential in Sunday's MLB forecast
It looks to generally be a great afternoon for baseball across the Majors, though extremely warm in a few places, as the matchup in Detroit between the Toronto Blue Jays and Detroit Tigers is the only game to have any threat of a rain delay whatsoever in the latest MLB weather forecast. Even at that, there are only a few passing showers that may cause a short delay and nothing substantial enough to affect hitters in that contest. Be sure to check out David Wolter’s full forecast (our fantastic meteorologist fill-in for Kevin Roth) on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow David on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @DavidWolter1.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page
Andrew Moore notched a 23.1% K% at AAA last season, signaling likely regression
Andrew Moore continues to put together solid outings at the Major League level, pitching at least six innings in each of his first three starts and allowing no more than three earned runs. Although he has recorded just 10 strikeouts in these aforementioned starts, Moore should be due for some positive regression in that department since he consistently posted a strikeout rate in the range of 23-24% in the highest levels of the Minor Leagues with an elite walk rate that seems to have carried over to the Majors thus far, evidenced by a masterful 2.4% mark. One potential issue with Moore is that he allows a massive amount of fly balls (54.4% FB%), which is absolutely fine as long as he continues to surrender hard contact at about a league-average rate or better like has in his first three outings. Moore’s fly ball “problems” look to be safe for at least one more start as the Chicago White Sox only rank 23rd in ISO against right-handed pitching with a .155 ISO as a team. Their lack of power is also accompanied by ranks of 25th in wRC+ and wOBA while striking out against righties at a 22.4% clip, good for roughly the league-average. So clearly, this all means that Moore finds himself in a great run prevention spot with the potential for some positive regression to his lowly 12.2% strikeout rate as well. With that said, it’s certainly possible that he allows a home run or two, but the White Sox are highly unlikely to manage to draw many walks or accrue tons of baserunners in between those potential long balls, giving us a really nice floor with Moore this afternoon and a much higher ceiling than he has exhibited to this point through three starts.
As reported by: FanGraphs Austin Hedges scratched Saturday; Hector Sanchez replaces at catcher
Hedges has officially been scratched from the San Diego Padres lineup for tonight’s game against the San Francisco Giants due to precautionary reasons. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Hector Sanchez, who will take over the catching duties and presumably bat seventh, though no official lineup has been released since the change. Assuming Sanchez will slot directly into Hedges’s spot in the lineup, the remainder of the Padres previously confirmed batting order would remain unchanged.
As reported by: Official Twitter Account of the San Diego Padres Other tagged players: Hector Sanchez YELLOW in ARI-ATL game is the only weather concern in Saturday's forecast
It’s extremely quiet night on the weather front across Major League Baseball on Saturday, as the only game that received any sort of risk designation is the game in Atlanta between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Atlanta Braves. The matchup is currently classified as YELLOW for the possibility of some scattered showers and storm around first pitch, adding some extra risk to starting pitchers should there be an early mid-game delay. Be sure to check out David Wolter’s full forecast (our fantastic meteorologist fill-in for Kevin Roth) on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow David on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @DavidWolter1.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page Mike Pelfrey owns a 2.5% K-BB% and 6.17 xFIP versus LHB this season
Mike Pelfrey continues to be just a mediocre-at-best starting pitcher at this point in his career and is essentially just an innings-eater for a Chicago White Sox rotation that is waiting on some younger arms to develop at the minor league level. The most common mistake in attacking Pelfrey with opposing hitters is to just blindly stack against him, but he has allowed just a .279 wOBA to righties this season, backed up by an elite 58.1% groundball rate and 23.4% hard hit rate despite a lowly 16.4% strikeout rate, the only real negative aspect of his pitching profile to righties. On the other hand, Pelfrey has been abysmal against left-handed batters with a similar 16.1% strikeout rate but induces ground balls at just a below-average 37.8% clip and surrenders a 36.6% hard hit rate. This makes Robinson Cano (136 wRC+, .370 wOBA, .249 ISO vs RHP) and Kyle Seager (.180 ISO vs RHP) the premier options from this Seattle Mariners lineup to take advantage of Pelfrey’s .369 wOBA allowed, while Ben Gamel (124 wRC+, .352 wOBA) and Jarrod Dyson (115 wRC+, .339 wOBA) each possess enough of a skillset at the plate against right-handed pitching to contribute solid games as part of a Mariners lefties stack in tournaments as well.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Kyle Seager, Ben Gamel, Jarrod Dyson, Mike Pelfrey Jake Arrieta checks in as the top projected point-per-dollar SP on Saturday's slate
Jake Arrieta has had the epitome of an up-and-down season through the first half of the year, evidenced even further by his mixed results in his previous four starts, allowing at least four runs in two of said outings and one run or fewer in the remaining two appearances. The biggest factors in Arrieta’s decline this season is a jump in his hard hit rate up to 29.2% and a decrease in his usual ground ball ability down to a 45.7%, essentially making him more susceptible to home runs and big innings. Although both of those statistics are roughly in line with league averages, his contact and groundball skills were really what made Arrieta a former perennial Cy Young candidate. However, since the beginning of June, a seven-start sample size, Arrieta has managed to get somewhat back on track, notching a 22.8% hard-hit rate and 52.6% groundball rate. Unfortunately, it’s not all good news, as he seems to have sacrificed some of his strikeouts to get back to his normal low-hard-contact, and groundball ways (18.6% k%). Despite the dip in strikeouts recently, Arrieta remains a fantastic option as an SP2 on DraftKings, where he is only priced at $6.8K, in a matchup with a boom-or-bust Baltimore Orioles squad that is known for their free-swinging tendencies. In fact, the Orioles rank ninth-worst in the Majors with a 22.6% strikeout rate and have just a .316 wOBA versus right-handed pitching. So, clearly, this matchup has the potential a great point-per-dollar spot for Arrieta on DraftKings with possible upside, making him an elite tournament target on Saturday’s slate.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Projections Detroit, Kansas City, Texas and Toronto biggest implied run line risers since early Friday afternoon
There has been quite a bit of run line movement since early this afternoon with several teams moving 0.2 runs or more in either direction. Sharpest climbers come from the middle of the board earlier today as Detroit (4.64 to 4.9), Kansas City (4.58 to 4.83), Texas (4.42 to 4.67) and Toronto (4.36 to 4.6) have all improved their prospects in Vegas’s eyes, while Boston (4.83 to 4.56), both New York NL (4.33 to 4.12) and AL (4.17 to 3.94) along with Colorado (3.67 to 3.38) have dropped significantly. The Yankees had an afternoon pitching change, but all four droppers cover just two games with strong pitching matchups. Players can track run line movement for all teams on the Vegas Odds page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds
Start of Friday's CHC-BAL game will be delayed due to rain
The beginning of tonight’s game between the Chicago Cubs and Baltimore Orioles will start in a rain delay. There is currently no estimated start time for the contest to get underway but the delay has the potential to be a lengthy one. David Wolter had the risk of this game graded as YELLOW due to the probability of storms passing through around first pitch. Pitchers in this contest shouldn’t have really been on the radar of daily fantasy players, but the batters remain firmly in play considering the likelihood this game plays through upon the conclusion of the initial, albeit, long rain delay.
As reported by: Official Twitter Account of the Baltimore Orioles Delay/late start potential in a few spots tonight, but no real PPD concerns in tonight's forecast.
There are a couple of games with delay potential in tonight’s forecast, but none that look like a potential PPD, which makes hitters in spots like Baltimore and Atlanta safe. The biggest concern on the mound might be Jacob deGrom with delay potential in the Colorado New York game, but even that looks like it should be early enough if anything should happen that it's unlikely to impact his workload much. Players can read the full report from David on the Weather page and be sure to follow him on Twitter (DavidWolter1) for further updates.
Seattle bats are affordable and expected to be highly owned tonight
Carrying the highest implied run line of the evening and fairly affordable for the most part on either site against James Shields, Seattle Mariner bats are currently projected to be the only ones above 15% ownership on either site tonight. With only two pitchers above the $10K price point on either site (just deGrom on FanDuel), there’s not a lot of creativity required tonight. In the same game, Jose Abreu grabs the top Contrarian Rating on either site. James Paxton has allowed RHBs just a .295 wOBA since last season, but the White Sox first baseman has quietly been destroying LHP this year (204 wRC+, .259 ISO, 46.2 Hard%) after having a reverse platoon split his first couple of years in the league. There’s no surprises on the mound either. Jacob deGrom and Carlos Carrasco are expected to be the most popular arms tonight, though Charlie Morton may be popular in a secondary role for $6.9K on DraftKings too. Should that be the case, players could look at someone like Drew Pomeranz for just a few hundred more. Potentially lower owned, he faces a Yankee lineup with a 90 wRC+ vs LHP this year. Ownership projections are updated throughout the day and are available to premium subscribers on the Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Jose Abreu, Jacob deGrom, Carlos Carrasco, Charlie Morton, Drew Pomeranz Jacob Faria has a stellar 24.1% K-BB% versus RHB through six starts
Jacob Faria is looking to start the unofficial midway point in the season off the same way he left off in the first half, pitching at least six innings in each of his six outings while striking out at least six in four of those aforementioned appearances. Faria will take the mound tonight against a Los Angeles Angels squad that has the propensity to put together strong offensive showings occasionally and should have Mike Trout back from an extended stint on the disabled list However, the fact remains that this is still a team that ranks in the bottom-third of the big leagues in wRC+ (21st), wOBA (27th), and ISO (26th) despite owning a respectable 20.1% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching while drawing walks at an 8.3% clip.Though Faria has exhibited great control through Major League starts (5.9% BB%), walks were a bit of an issue in the Minors, evidenced by his 9.1% walk rate in AAA this season, and while it’s obvious that this youngster is going to hit some bumps in the road, the lack of offensive firepower for Los Angeles makes it far less likely for that the first blow-up start will come this evening. Additionally, Faria’s strikeout abilities have clearly carried over to the Majors pretty well, as he has posted an above-average 24.3% strikeout rate after recording a 34.7% strikeout rate in 11 starts at AAA. With all that said, Faria looks to be a much better tournament option than cash game target, though he still possesses enough upside to compete with the other high-priced arms for the top score on Friday’s slate.
As reported by: FanGraphs Bryce Harper is tonight's top projected player (RotoGrinders Player Projections) vs HR prone Tim Adleman
Bryce Harper is the top projected bat on the slate by the RotoGrinders Player Projections against the HR prone Tim Adleman (18.5 HR/FB at home since last season). He’s followed by several first basemen (Paul Goldschmidt, Anthony Rizzo and Freddie Freeman). The Diamondbacks (Jake Lamb), Cubs (Kris Bryant) and Mariners (Nelson Cruz, Robinson Cano) all have multiple players near the top. Corey Dickerson costs just $3.5K on DraftKings and may be the top value on the slate according to the projections (3.51 Pt/$/K). Ricky Nolasco has allowed a major league leading 25 HRs and Dickerson should get three shots at him at the top of the order. Kyle Schwarber costs just $2.3K on FanDuel and projects for 4.01 Pt/$/K against Kevin Gausman. Alex Avila (3.89 PT/$/K) against Aaron Sanchez and Robinson Cano (3.86 Pt/$/K) against James Shields reserve potential top value spots as well.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Paul Goldschmidt, Anthony Rizzo, Freddie Freeman, Corey Dickerson, Robinson Cano, Alex Avila, Kyle Schwarber Jacob deGrom and Carlos Carrasco virtually tied for top projections tonight
Despite a deep pitching slate, there aren’t a lot of elite strikeout arms with Jacob deGrom (28.4 K%) leading the slate ahead of Carlos Carrasco (27.5 K%) and James Paxton (27.2 K%). Not coincidentally, DeGrom and Carrasco are tied atop the Daily K Predictor with a 7.1 projection each. Paxton is among the next group of several arms between 5.6 and 6.05. deGrom and Carrasco are also once again virtually tied as the top arms according to the RotoGrinders Player Projections tonight. Both are in favorable matchups in negative run environments with deGrom hosting the Rockies (77 wRC+ vs RHP) and Carrasco visiting Oakland (25.4 K% vs RHP). If it comes down to site, both right around the $12K mark on DraftKings, but Carrasco may be the better value for $1.5K less on FanDuel. Paxton could be getting under-valued here. The White Sox have been a top offense against LHP (114 wRC+), but their peripherals are just average (14.0 K-BB%, 14.6 HR/FB) and Paxton has actually excelled against RHBs with a career .281 wOBA and 15.5 K-BB%. He has also struck out at least eight in three of his last four starts with a 12+ SwStr% in all four. Jon Gray has seen his strikeouts drop to 22.6% in an injury plagued season, but his 82.9 mph aEV is lowest on the board and he deserves strong consideration on the road in New York for just $6.6K on FanDuel.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Carlos Carrasco, James Paxton, Jon Gray Six player have at least three HRs against the pitcher they are facing tonight.
As if players needed more incentive to jump on James Shields tonight, while RHBs have actually hit him harder since last season (38.8 Hard% to 28.9%), it’s two LHBs who have hammered him for seven HRs throughout his career according to Baseball Savant’s Daily Matchups page. Robinson Cano (four HRs, 12 extra-base hits, 85 PAs) has absolutely torched him going back to their AL East days. He has a 92 mph aEV on five BBEs in the Statcast era (since 2015). Kyle Seager (three HRs, 20 PAs) has just an 84.7 mph aEV on four BBEs. Matt Carpenter and Dexter Fowler each have three HRs against Gerrit Cole with 15 BBEs recorded. Fowler has the slightly higher aEV (96.8 mph to 95.6). Those are also the two highest aEV marks for any batter with at least 10 recorded BBEs against tonight’s pitcher. Joey Votto has homered three times against Gio Gonzalez too. In the lefty-lefty matchup, the Cincinnati first baseman has six extra-base hits in 21 PAs with a 103.2 mph aEV on five BBEs. Lastly, Justin Smoak has been smoking Justin Verlander (three HRs). He only has two recorded BBEs (101.8 mph aEV) and has struck out 10 times in 21 PAs.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Matchups Other tagged players: Kyle Seager, Matt Carpenter, Dexter Fowler, Joey Votto, Justin Smoak Three of the five hottest bats going into the break were Astros
There has been no baseball that counts since Sunday, but if we go back to look at the last full week of play, Houston bats tore up the league over the last seven days of play. Jose Altuve (340 wRC+, 26.1 Hard%, two HRs), George Springer (326 wRC+, 54.6 Hard%, three HRs) and Carlos Correa (280 wRC+, 37.5 Hard%, three HRs) had three of the top five wRC+ marks with a minimum of 10 PAs over that span. They face Jose Berrios tonight with a 5.07 implied run line (fourth highest). Considering Berrios’s 3.53 ERA and 23.7 K% overall and .263 wOBA with a 22.3 K-BB% and -5.9 Hard-Soft% against RHBs, players could stay away, which may make for a rare contrarian stacking opportunity for an offense expected to score five runs by Vegas. If you’re wondering who breaks those Houston bats up in the top five, it’s Johan Camargo (322, 35.7 Hard%, one HR) and Paul DeJong (313 wRC+, 36.8 Hard%, three HRs), both facing fairly tough, but inconsistent RHPs this year (Taijuan Walker and Gerrit Cole).
Other tagged players: George Springer, Carlos Correa, Johan Camargo, Paul DeJong