DFS Alerts
RHBs have a .415 wOBA (39.1 Hard%) against Nick Pivetta
It’s still a small sample size (11 starts), but Nick Pivetta has shown some stunning reverse splits so far with RHBs torching him for a .415 wOBA and 39.1 Hard%. Although his 14.8 K-BB% is actually a bit higher than against LHBs (11.9%), 11 of his 12 HRs have been surrendered to RHBs as well. He has an identical 36 GB% against batters from either side, so it’s really the harder contact (by 10 points) that’s done him in. Being a fly ball pitcher in Philadelphia isn’t very friendly and though he’s not pitching there tonight, it may not get any better in Milwaukee against an offense with a 20 HR/FB at home and vs RHP. This fact hasn’t snuck up on anyway, as the Brewers currently hold the second highest implied total (5.35 runs), but players may not immediately recognize that RHBs should be the path to success here. It will be interesting to see if they play Jesus Aguilar (105 wRC+, .252 ISO vs RHP since last season), but in addition, Domingo Santana, Ryan Braun, Keon Broxton, Manny Pina and Hernan Perez are all RHBs with an ISO above .190 vs RHP this year. Santana has the highest wRC+ at 123.
Other tagged players: Jesus Aguilar, Ryan Braun, Keon Broxton, Manny Pina, Hernan Perez
RHBs have a 38.8 Hard% vs James Shields (.369 wOBA) since last season
Just eight teams are implied for at least 4.8 runs as we return from the All-Star break with a fairly strong pitching slate and few really favorable run environments in play today. Seattle currently has the top implied run line (5.5) and is the obvious stack against James Shields (4.95 ERA, 5.45 SIERA, 39.6% 95+ mph aEV). Considering a wOBA above .360 to batters from either side since last season, Robinson Cano (131 wRC+, .237 ISO vs RHP) and Kyle Seager (three HRs in 20 PAs vs Shields) are strong plays at reasonable prices, but the hard hit rate has been 10 points higher to RHBs over this span as well (38.8% to 28.9%). Nelson Cruz (137 wRC+, .238 ISO vs RHP) and Jean Segura (140 wRC+, .145 ISO vs RHP) may be the top overall batters on the slate. Both have a wRC+ above 190 over the last seven days of play. Interesting to note that as bad as Shields has been against RHBs, Gerrit Cole has identical numbers against LHBs since last year (.369 wOBA, 38.9 Hard%). Both Matt Carpenter and Dexter Fowler were favorites of today’s Trendspotting article, having hit Cole well in the past. With the Cardinals implied for just 3.9 runs currently, ownership is likely to be low on their bats.
Other tagged players: Kyle Seager, Robinson Cano, Jean Segura, James Shields, Gerrit Cole, Matt Carpenter, Dexter Fowler Fabian Gomez is no longer in The John Deere Classic
Fabian Gomez has withdrawn from this week’s John Deere Classic. The reason behind his withdrawal is not yet known, and Gomez’s poor form this season should have him off the radar of most in the DFS community. Brendan Todd will take his place in the tournament, but his late entry into the field will prevent him from having a price for this week’s DFS slate.
As reported by: Rob Bolton Twitter
Jason Castro scratched Sunday; Chris Gimenez replaces and will bat eighth
Castro has officially been scratched from the Minnesota Twins lineup for today’s game against the Baltimore Orioles due to an unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Chris Gimenez, who will take over the catching duties and bat eighth. This lineup change will presumably bump Kennys Vargas, Eddie Rosario, and Jorge Polanco each up one spot in the order, though there has yet to be an official updated Twins lineup released. Be sure to check the Starting Lineups page, as the changes will be posted there if a new batting order is released prior to the game’s scheduled lock time.
Other tagged players: Chris Gimenez
Trevor Cahill owns the second-best SIERA and SwStr% on Sunday's main slate
Trevor Cahill is set to make his second start since being activated from the disabled list against the Philadelphia Phillies today after making just 85 pitches in 4.1 innings of work his last time out. Before his injury, Cahill was one of the several pitchers this season that had seen a drastic increase in his strikeout rate over his typical career numbers, evidenced by his measly 17.2% career punchout rate. However, through eight starts in 2017, his strikeout rate is all the way up to 28.8% and is even supported by a 13.2% swinging strike rate, meaning that this newfound strikeout ability is more than sustainable if he is able to continue inducing that many swings and misses in or around the strike zone. Even if those numbers regress a small amount following the stint on the disabled list, Cahill would still remain in the category of pitchers with elite strikeout stuff. In addition to the increased strikeouts, Cahill has managed to induce groundballs at a 62.3% rate, which is something he has always been able to do well but is extra impressive considering he isn’t sacrificing any of his groundball ability to increase his strikeout totals. He also will receive the added benefit of squaring off with a Phillies squad that is extremely susceptible to right-handed pitching and ranks 28th in wRC+, 28th in wOBA, and 29th in ISO, while additionally being proud owners of the sixth-highest strikeout rate in the Majors at 23.8% against righties. Furthermore, the Phillies draw walks at just a 7.6% clip, good for bottom ten in the league, which should help Cahill keep his control issues in check (10.0% BB%) and pitch his way to a solid outing with decent strikeout upside if he is able to approach the 100-pitch mark this fine Sunday afternoon.
As reported by: FanGraphs Jameson Taillon scratched Sunday; Chad Kuhl will start in his place
Taillon has officially been scratched from his start for the Pittsburgh Pirates in today’s game against the Chicago Cubs due to flu-like symptoms. He’ll be replaced at starting pitcher by Chad Kuhl. With Kuhl taking over as the pitcher in this game, the Cubs hitters suddenly become much more interesting options on Sunday’s main slate as a stack or even as individual one-offs.
As reported by: Bill Brink Other tagged players: Chad Kuhl Some trouble spots worth monitoring in Sunday's MLB weather forecast
It’s a relatively quiet afternoon around the big leagues on the weather front but there are a few games that received a risk designation from Kevin Roth due to rain potential. The primary game of concern looks to be in Texas for the matchup between the Los Angeles Angels and Texas Rangers with a grade of YELLOW/ORANGE, meaning that a postponement is not completely out the realm of possibility. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page Chris Archer has a 27.4% K-BB% and 2.83 xFIP at home this season
Chris Archer is set to take the mound against the Boston Red Sox this afternoon in the midst of a so-so stretch of the season for the Tampa Bay Rays’ ace, allowing at least three earned runs (but no more than four) in four of his last five starts. Disappointing outings aside, Archer had previously turned it around after a shaky start to the year, especially in the strikeout department, notching double-digit strikeouts in five of seven starts prior to his recent lull, flashing that elite upside that we have all come to know and love. The current season advanced statistics for Archer are essentially in line or slightly better than his career numbers, evidenced by a 3.51 SIERA, 28.6% strikeout rate, and a 7.4% walk rate. One concerning area is the small dip in his groundball rate (42.9% GB%) from a career 46.2% rate that is correlated with a career-high 38.4% hard hit rate, though an 18-start sample size is still arguably too small to place too much stock in the hard contact issues but remain worrisome nonetheless. Given the matchup with a Red Sox squad that is merely an average offense against right-handed pitching overall, it’s not hard to see why Archer still possesses one of the highest ceilings among starting pitchers on Sunday’s slate, despite Boston owning the second-best strikeout rate (18.5% K%) against righties. If weighting splits, another advantage with this spot is that Archer has always been a more dominant pitcher at home throughout his career, which has held true once again this season, with a 33.3% strikeout rate at Tropicana Field opposed to a 24.1% strikeout rate on the road. So, clearly, even in what will likely be perceived as a bad matchup by the general public, Archer always possesses the upside to finish the day as the highest scoring starting pitcher on any given slate.
As reported by: FanGraphs Adeiny Hechavarria scratched Sunday; Taylor Featherston replaces and will bat eighth
Hechavarria has officially been scratched from the Tampa Bay Rays lineup for today’s game against the Boston Red Sox due to an unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Taylor Featherston, who will take over the second base duties and bat eighth. Since Featherston is slotting directly into Hechavarria’s spot in the lineup, the remainder of the Rays previously confirmed batting order will remain unchanged.
As reported by: Roger Mooney Other tagged players: Taylor Featherston No changes to Saturday's MLB weather forecast, night games remain relatively quiet
There isn’t much to be worried about in terms of rain delay potential for tonight’s 8-game MLB main slate, as YELLOW in Denver for the matchup between the Chicago White Sox and Colorado Rockies is the worst classification among the game’s on Saturday’s docket. These scattered showers are pretty typical for games at Coors Field and Kevin Roth remains relatively unconcerned with their weak coverage area. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page Tyson Ross has fallen victim to a 53.7% LOB% despite just a 26.8% HH%
Tyson Ross is set to make his fifth start of the season tonight against the Los Angeles Angels after experiencing some mixed results in his previous four outings, allowing two earned runs or less in two starts while getting shellacked for seven and four earned runs, respectively, in his other two appearances. Unfortunately, the only significant recent sample size we have on Ross is from 2015 where he posted an above-average 25.8% strikeout rate but a higher than ideal 10.2% walk rate. The strikeouts are always a nice added bonus, but what really makes Ross an intriguing starting pitcher tonight and going forward is the 61.5% groundball rate and 23.7% hard hit rate he notched two seasons ago, numbers we rarely see from a strikeout pitcher. The four start sample size of 2017 is still too minuscule to seriously evaluate his issues to this point, but so far, the strikeouts (18.1% K%) and groundballs (37.5% GB%) have both been way down. Thankfully, Ross draws an intriguing matchup to possibly begin turning things around, squaring off with an Angels squad that ranks 27th in wOBA, 20th in wRC+, and just 26th in ISO versus right-handed pitching, though their 20.1% strikeout rate is ninth-best in the entire league. The Angels do draw a decent number of walks (8.1%) but hit the second most groundballs (48.2%) against righties, which is an intriguing statistic that could afford Ross an opportunity to get back on track in Saturday night’s start despite some of his strikeout upside lacking in this matchup. With that said, Ross is currently severely underpriced across the industry when factoring in his past success and tonight’s matchup looks to be the perfect opportunity to jump back on board at what should be reduced ownership levels.
As reported by: FanGraphs YELLOW/GREEN in ATL-WAS game headlines Saturday's early MLB forecast
There looks to be minimal concern in regards to weather on Saturday’s 7-game MLB early slate, four games if playing FanDuel (it’s almost like they forget they have late-swap now), as the worst weather risk checks in at YELLOW/GREEN in Washington, D.C. for the matchup between the Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals due to isolated pop-up showers. Kevin Roth doesn’t expect these storms to have an impact on the game but cannot rule out the small possibility of a rain delay, hence the YELLOW/GREEN designation. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page Luis Severino has the highest strikeout expectation on Saturday's early slate
Luis Severino continues to chug along in what looks to be a breakout season for this once highly-touted prospect, despite some recent tough outings, as he has allowed four earned runs or more in three of his last four starts. However, a masterful 12-strikeout performance in seven innings of work against the Chicago White Sox is sandwiched in the aforementioned stretch. Today, he’ll take the mound against a powerful, but free-swinging, Milwaukee Brewers lineup at home. While the matchup with a team that owns a .331 wOBA and .199 ISO versus right-handed pitching is something we don’t normally go out of the way to target, this is a spot where we have the opportunity to capture a double-digit strikeout performance given Milwaukee’s 24.6% strikeout rate against righties, making Severino an ideal target for large field tournaments if willing to take on the added risk. The primary reason to feel good about Severino this afternoon is the elite skills he brings to the mound, a 28.0% strikeout rate and 54.1% groundball rate in addition to below-average hard hits (30.3%) is normally a winning combination for a starting pitcher, no matter the matchup. Essentially this means Severino is one of, if not, the top starting pitching option on the entire early slate. So while Stephen Strasburg is the clear optimal play over Severino in cash games for the price and matchup with a team that struggles with power and on-base ability against righties, consider Severino as a tournament pivot with nearly identical upside and peripherals as Strasburg if removing matchup difficulty from the equation.
As reported by: FanGraphs Ryan Hanigan scratched Friday; Tony Wolters replaces and will bat eighth
Hanigan has officially been scratched from the Colorado Rockies lineup for tonight’s game against the Chicago White Sox due to a back injury. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Tony Wolters, who will take over the catching duties and bat eighth. Since Wolters is slotting directly into Hanigan’s spot in the lineup, the remainder of the Rockies previously confirmed batting order will remain unchanged.
As reported by: Nick Groke Other tagged players: Tony Wolters Late start/delay potential in several spots, though low PPD risk
Kevin’s evening update calls for a potential late start in Philadelphia (vs San Diego) with low PPD potential. That game is not on the main slate. Atlanta Washington could be more interesting as there's more potential for an in-game delay. While PPD chances are likewise low here, Max Scherzer is starting and it's not outside the realm of thought that Washington could attempt to maneuver an uninterrupted start, which would be good news for backers. Chicago (AL) Colorado is the other game with the most delay potential, but again, with very low PPD risk and no interest in pitchers in this game, concerns should be limited. Kevin grades a few other games YELLOW in New York (AL) and Cleveland with less risk. Players will want to read his full report on the Weather page and follow him on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates tonight.