DFS Alerts
It's going to be difficult to fit Coors bats against Matt Moore in lineups with Chris Sale
Rockies bats are the clear chalk tonight in a lineup implied for 6.12 runs against Matt Moore at Coors. The question is how are you going to fit all those bats in with Chris Sale? Four teams (Tigers, Cardinals, Red Sox, Giants) all have run lines between 4.8 and 5.2. Nolan Arenado (137 wRC+, .293 ISO vs LHP since 2016) is probably the bat most players will work around fitting in, but RHBs only have a .312 wOBA and 32.2 Hard% against Moore, while LHBs have a .346 wOBA and 36.6 Hard% since last season, which means Charlie Blackmon (116 wRC+, .169 ISO vs LHP since 2016) might be the bat worth saving for. Players can do that in a couple of ways, if they are willing to drop down to a Matt Carpenter ($3.4K DK) or Miguel Cabrera ($3.4K FD) at First Base and then get creative maybe with a team like the Mets who may have Juan Lagares (120 wRC+, 31.3 Hard% last seven days) and Wilmer Flores (177 wRC+, .321 ISO vs LHP since 2016) at the top against Gio Gonzalez. Neither has a cost above $3K on either site. Punting at a potentially weaker position like Catcher may be a necessity as well.
Other tagged players: Chris Sale, Wilmer Flores
Jeff Hoffman has struck out at least seven in four straight starts
The first thing that jumps out on DraftKings’ main slate tonight is the price gap between Chris Sale at $14.1k and the next closest guy, Gio Gonzalez, whose salary is a whopping $5.1k cheaper. Following Gio, there are six guys between $7.3-8.6k, one of them is Hoffman ($7.5k). Considering he’s made eight total starts in the bigs, we have a small sample size, but his velocity is up a tick this year and he’s been excellent in all four starts this season – including a SwStr% of 13.0% and overall strikeout rate of 33.3%. Those are giant leaps of 6.3% and 13.3% from his four starts last year. His SIERA is down from 5.22 to 2.7, which is nearly as good as Sale (2.55). The numbers are a bit suspect though – his Soft% is down to 17.2% and he has a 32.8% Hard, even more striking is his tiny 28.6% GB%. He also enters tonight’s game with a .230 BABIP. It’s going to be warm in Coors Field tonight (86 degrees) and pairing park factors with his batted ball statistics makes him appear risky. Fortunately, San Francisco has a very low ISO of .128 against RHP in 2017 and a high ground ball rate of 48.5%. That’s exactly what we’d like to see. They don’t strike out a ton though, just 19.2% this year, which could potentially limit the upside. If we look at Hoffman’s four matchups this year, we see more favorable situations – Cubs (22.3% vs. RHP this season), Padres (25.8%), Phillies (23.4%), and Dodgers (23.5%). The case could certainly be made to spend up for a better strikeout matchup like we’d get with Jordan Montgomery (12.7% SwStr%, 23.0% K%) against Oakland (25.4% vs. LHP this year). Montgomery has been provided a lower opponent projected run total (4.18 vs. 4.89), but Hoffman is the second biggest favorite on the slate (145) as Colorado is expected to provide plenty of run support (6.11). Hoffman will providing a savings of $1.1k on DK of Montgomery and that matters for those trying to get up to Sale tonight. While he isn’t the safest option, he does offer plenty of upside and his velocity bump and high SwStr% suggests he can maintain a solid strikeout rate.
Other tagged players: Jordan Montgomery
Ariel Miranda has allowed a 53.7% FB% to RHB over the last two seasons
Miranda has a low wOBA of .296 but that’s in part due to his unsustainable BABIP of .206. Considering he’s posted a 33.1% Hard%, that number should certainly rise over time. He’s posted a high ISO of .213 in split though and has an xFIP of 5.23. Sano has pounded LHP for a 43.2% Hard% during the same stretch and he’s fully capable of exploiting Miranda’s high fly ball rate – he has a 43.2% FB% over the past two seasons. Those numbers have enabled him to post a .273 ISO and .361 wOBA. His teammate Brian Dozier has produced even better stats with a .315 ISO and .405 wOBA to go along with his 51.4% FB% and 40.4% Hard%. Minnesota will have eight batters attacking from the right side of the plate – Escobar, Buxton, Polanco, and Gimenez all have fly ball rates of at least 38.3% vs. LHP dating back to last season – and they make for an interesting tournament stack as their projected run total is fourth on the three-game slate, which should keep their ownership down a touch. Sano and Dozier are in the top three in our projections model on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Other tagged players: Brian Dozier, Ariel Miranda Dodgers-Indians game considered YELLOW/ORANGE in Thursday's MLB forecast
There’s a good chance of rain in Cleveland this afternoon and Kevin Roth will be tracking the radar up until lock. As of now, it looks like we could see a delay but we’re not expecting a PPD. Outside of that, the early slate looks clear. The Orioles-White Sox matchup is considered Green/Yellow due to some rain prior to the game, but it should be good to go. In Minnesota, where the Twins will host the Mariners, there are strong winds with gusts up to 25 mph blowing out to center. Plus, temperatures are expected to reach the mid-80s. On the main slate, the Ray-Tigers game is looking like trouble. Scattered storms are expected early on, although they should clear out in time to finish. There don’t seem to be many other concerns tonight. There are some hitter-friendly conditions in a few parks, most notably, it’s going to be 86 degrees at first pitch in Coors Field and 92 in St. Louis. Be sure to check out our weather page for complete details and follow @KevinRothWx on Twitter for updates as we approach lock.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Cody Bellinger tops our home run predictor Thursday (7.99%)
He’s been hot over the past week with five dingers over the past four games. Following a hitless game against Corey Kluber, the rookie will look to bounce back against Cleveland starter Josh Tomlin. Although Tomlin hasn’t given up many fly balls to lefties this season (33.0%) and his wOBA is .318, he gives up a ton of hard contact (37.7%). This matches up well with Bellinger, who’s been crushing RHP all season with a 43.4% Hard%. Paired with his 47.5% FB%, he’s been able to post a .362 wOBA and .333 ISO. His biggest drawback is the high 32.2% K%, but Tomlin has a low 14.7% K% against RHB. Overall, he has a Contact% of 85.4%, which makes this matchup for Bellinger even more appealing – he’s in a good spot to put the bat on the ball and make hard contact when doing so. He’s far ahead in the home run prediction with Trey Mancini the next closest player on the early slate coming in at 6.36%. Bellinger is the most expensive player this afternoon on DraftKings ($5.3k) while he comes in at fifth on FanDuel ($3.8k) and his points-per-dollar projection ranks 12th on the site in our model.
Dodgers-Indians to start in a delay; no start time announced as of yet
Tonight’s CLE-LAD tilt will start in a delay, and we haven’t yet gotten word of the official start time. Pitchers do carry some risk in this game, but it should play eventually, so hitters can still be utilized here without much concern. There is mild PPD risk here due to the slow moving nature of the rain.
As reported by: Alanna Rizzo
Jason Kipnis has been scratched with a neck issue. Bradley Zimmer bats leadoff.
Jason Kipnis has been scratched with a neck issue. Bradley Zimmer bats leadoff.
As reported by: Nick Camino Other tagged players: Bradley Zimmer Weather risk has increased in a number of games since this morning
Baltimore Cleveland appears to be the riskiest game in the evening forecast as Kevin grades it a straight ORANGE with slow moving thunderstorms in the area. The real difficulty may be in the LA Dodgers Cleveland game where many players will be looking for pitching. At YELLOW/ORANGE, Corey Kluber carries some risk and we should see a lot of pivots to Michael Pineda, but there aren’t many other options. The other game to watch is Milwaukee St Louis, which could be cut short or interrupted mid-game. This is disappointing because Mike Leake could be a potential pivot against a high strikeout lineup tonight. Read Kevin's full report on the Weather page and be sure to follow him on Twitter (KevinRothWx) for further updates on an active weather night.
Corey Kluber and Michael Pineda expected to dominate pitcher ownership tonight
While no single team dominates ownership projections tonight and no single bat is expected to be more than 20% owned, several teams with high implied run lines (Twins, Diamondbacks, Red Sox) have a couple of batters hovering around the 15% mark. St Louis bats look like they may go a bit under-owned against the struggling Matt Garza with only Matt Carpenter expected to reach 10% on either site. Corey Kluber is expected to be the most popular arm tonight, though Michael Pineda, projected for a slightly smaller percentage of lineups, has the better matchup against the Angels. While no other pitcher should be nearly as popular as those two, no other pitcher on the slate has a strikeout rate above 23%. Projected ownership rates are updated until first pitch. Premium subscribers can find them for all players on the Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Michael Pineda, Matt Carpenter Cubs (FanDuel) and Cardinals (DraftKings) project as top values tonight
Tonight’s top projected players according to the RotoGrinders Player Projections that Arizona is the only team that even has two players show up in the top 10 projected highest point totals. That team is Arizona with Paul Goldschmidt and Jake Lamb facing Jordan Zimmermann with an ERA and estimators all well above five. Mookie Betts, atop another well projected lineup, and Charlie Blackmon, in a great spot against a pitcher who struggles against LHBs help fill out the top four projected point totals tonight. Those looking to save salary may find themselves liking the Cubs with Miguel Montero (4.26 PT/$/K) and Jon Jay (3.8 PT/$/K) on FanDuel. The projections like a pair of affordable Cardinals for value on DraftKings with Matt Carpenter (2.4 Pt/$/K) projecting for the most overall point among top potential values and Jedd Gyorko (2.32 Pt/$/K).
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Miguel Montero, Paul Goldschmidt Using PlateIQ to examine differing philosophies in pitch location for Odorizzi and Shoemaker
Two interesting matchups to examine using PlateIQ are pitchers with opposing philosophies concerning location. Jake Odorizzi loves to live up in the zone and on the outside, throwing lots of splitters and cutters off his primary fastball. Josh Donaldson and Jose Bautista have both liked those upper areas, especially this season, while Bautista especially has excelled against splitters and cutters over the last two years, supporting the duos high exit velocity and success against this fly ball pitcher. In Los Angeles, Matt Shoemaker emphasized the splitter/changeup as well to live down and away to batters from either side. Those pitches along with the location appears to be right in Gary Sanchez’s wheelhouse, while Aaron Judge has handled the low pitch well, but not as much on the outside part of the plate. Another batter who seems to match up well with Shoemaker’s arsenal is Brett Gardner, who’s hot spots correspond on the heat map with some success against splitters as well.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: Jake Odorizzi, Matt Shoemaker Corey Kluber and Michael Pineda only pitchers above 23 K% on night slate
Corey Kluber is the best overall pitcher on the slate and he’s struck out 18 of 46 batters with a 16 Hard% in two games since returning from the DL, but a matchup with the Dodgers, despite their 23 K% vs RHP, is far less ideal than Michael Pineda’s assignment in Los Angeles, which may make him the top pick today. The RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor sees Kluber as the top accumulator (8.15) with a slight lead in overall point projection (RotoGrinders Player Projections), which would make Pineda potentially the better value for $1.5K less on FanDuel. The issue is finding a pivot or compliment to either of these guys with no other pitcher on the slate owning a strikeout rate above 23%. Mike Leake is generally not a daily fantasy friendly pitcher, but is missing a few more bats and having a nice season, though a high strand rate drops his ERA well below estimators. He may be in line for a few more strikeouts against the Brewers (24.6 K% vs RHP) and has managed contact well (54.8 GB%, 27.4 Hard%), but may need to dodge weather issues according to Kevin’s early forecast.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Michael Pineda, Mike Leake Josh Donaldson has four HRs and a 98.3 mph aEV against Jake Odorizzi
BvP data can be difficult to support sometimes, but the information available for Josh Donaldson’s domination of Jake Odorizzi seems incredibly useful. Batters looking to elevate like Donaldson generally do better against ground ball pitchers, but that’s certainly not the case here. In 24 career PAs, Donaldson has four HRs with a 98.3 mph aEV on 11 BBEs, though with seven strikeouts as well. Teammate Jose Bautista also has a 97.3 mph aEV on 14 BBEs, but just a single career HR (two extra-base hits) in 37 PAs. Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz have a combined seven HRs against Ervin Santana, but not a single Statcast recorded BBE in 72 PAs altogether. Their overall lines are remarkably similar against Santana.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Matchups Other tagged players: Jose Bautista, Jake Odorizzi Cody Bellinger (323 wRC+) hottest batter on the slate has a tough matchup against Corey Kluber
Cody Bellinger is the hottest bat on the night slate (323 wRC+, 61.5 Hard%, five HRs last seven days) among batters with at least 10 plate appearances over the last week. He homered twice last night, but will have a hard time repeating that feat against Corey Kluber, who has been dominant in two starts since returning from the DL. Kluber does have .328 BABIP in front of a weak defense, so a nice night out of Bellinger is not impossible, but this is not the pitcher players should want to pick on tonight. In the same game, Daniel Robertson (the Cleveland one) has the second highest wRC+ over the last week (304), though he’s hit just 22.2% of batted balls hard withe one HR, barely meeting the 10 PA threshold. This information may not be as useful as we’d like. Brandon Drury (298 wRC+, 72.2 Hard%, four HRs) will not have hte platoon advantage, but that hasn’t mattered much against Jordan Zimmermann (RHBs .366 wOBA since 2016) and neither will Jay Bruce (.283 wRC+, 64.7 Hard%, four HRs), who has struggled against LHP since last season (67 wRC+, .162 ISO). Then there’s Aaron Judge (279 wRC+, 57.9 Hard%, four HRs), who seems to have reserved his spot on this list for an extended stay. Matt Shoemaker (RHBs .320 wOBA since last season) is a bit HR prone.
Other tagged players: Aaron Judge, Brandon Drury Despite high implied run lines and lack of top end pitching, no clear offensive favorites tonight
Eleven of 22 teams have an implied run line of 4.7 or higher on the night slate with Minnesota (5.57) leading the pack, which should suggest some diverse offensive ownership tonight. While it appears a hitter’s slate due to a lack of high end pitching, consider that aside from Cleveland, most games are taking place in near neutral or negative run environments tonight. That doesn’t mean runs won’t be scored tonight, just that there’s not one clear spot in which to look. To add to the situation in Cleveland, aside from being the most positive run environment on the slate, our new Umpire Analysis article suggests that Corey Kluber and Brandon McCarthy could be dealing with the most hitter friendly umpire on the slate. The easy targets tonight are LHBs against Chad Kuhl (.396 wOBA, 37.9 Hard% since 2016) and Andrew Cashner (.360 wOBA, 37.1 Hard%), though neither the Rockies nor Astros have many lefties, so perhaps a Houston stack with Charlie Blackmon pays off tonight. Josh Donaldson and Jose Bautista may make an under-owned combination with favorable numbers against reverse platoon Jake Odorizzi (RHBs .337 wOBA, 36.5 Hard% since 2016), who is an extreme fly ball pitcher and one of the few arms experiencing a park downgrade tonight.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Umpire Analysis Other tagged players: Jose Bautista, Charlie Blackmon