DFS Alerts
Still some weather concerns in Washington, the only problem area on the early slate
Radar is still dry over Washington for now, but forecast models show that changing over the next couple of hours (as we head in to game-time). As with most afternoon games of a similar nature, the problem is that you never know exactly where pop-ups will form until they pop. So, for now it’s dry, but high-resolution forecast models bring a good number of storms in to the area by the late afternoon. SPs here are pretty risky, because one storm over the stadium could cause a lengthy delay, (and there’s a chance of a PPD) it all depends on where the storms end up.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page
Tanner Roark has second-highest SwStr% on early slate (9.3%)
It’s not a tremendous figure, but there aren’t many exciting pitchers on the three-gamer and Roark looks intriguing as an SP2 or GPP option when compared to the crowd. His 19.1% K% this season is third on the slate, but the guy ahead of him, Jhoulys Chacin (20.3%), has a very low 11.6% K% against LHB this year and five of the eight Cincinnati starters will hit from the left side of the plate. Roark will face four lefties, but his K% is 5.4% higher at 17.0%. According to PlateIQ, Roark has the better matchup as the Braves lineup has combined for a .312 wOBA and .146 ISO against RHP this season while Cincy’s starters have posted a .338 wOBA and .202 ISO. In terms of SIERA, Roark is third (4.46) while Chacin is second (4.25) and Chacin has a better GB% (52.3% vs. 45.1%), but Roark’s is still good for second this afternoon and he boasts the lowest Hard% (26.9%). Roark is a much larger favorite (152 vs. 119) and his opponent has a lower projected run total (41.6 vs. 4.48). Vegas has Chacin’s outlook trending in the wrong direction as the Reds’ implied total has jumped .4 runs since opening. While Johnny Cueto is the clear top option, Roark is certainly worth consideration in tournaments and as an SP2 in all formats on two-pitcher sites.
Other tagged players: Jhoulys Chacin
San Diego offers plenty of value this afternoon
According to our MLB projections model, the Padres offer three of the top ten points-per-dollar options on DraftKings and five of the top 16 on FanDuel (Franchy Cordero is not available on the site). They currently own the second-highest projected run total on the early slate (4.76) as they get set to take on Amir Garrett of the Reds. San Diego has won the first two games of the series with an average score of 7.5 – Franchy Cordero has been stellar, hitting three dingers over those two games. He’ll be in the lineup again today in the two-hole and it looks like another favorable matchup. Although we only have a tiny sample size of 36 LHB faced, Garrett has allowed a .372 ISO to LHB in his rookie season. Some of that was bad luck, considering his 40.0% HR/FB rate though. Franchy has a small sample himself with just 56 total plate appearances this season and only eight against a lefty. Overall, he has a 38.7% FB% and 45.2% Hard% – he’s certainly risky, but there’s no denying he’s hot right now. We have more data on Garrett vs RHB – 182 batters – and his statistics are poor: 40.3% Hard%, 40.8% FB%, .383 wOBA, and .312 ISO. At the same time his BABIP is .248, which suggests he hasn’t been unlucky when it comes to batters getting on base, and he has the highest xFIP against righties on the slate (5.68). This is great news for Will Myers, who’s pounded RHP over the last two seasons for a 43.5% Hard%, enabling him to post a .192 ISO and .346 wOBA. Hunter Renfroe has a smaller data set available (79 plate appearances vs. 226 for Myers), but he’s clobbered RHP for a .309 ISO and .432 wOBA during his time in the bigs. Myers tops our points-per-dollar projections on DK and comes in at tenth on FD while Renfroe is eighth on both sites. There is some concern with Myers’ high K% of 26.5% over the past two years in split, but Garrett has a 15.4% K% against RHB so far in his career. In addition to those guys, Jose Pirela and Yangervis Solarte present a couple more righty bats available at a reasonable price this afternoon.
Other tagged players: Wil Myers, Franchy Cordero Nationals lead early slate with a 5.31 projected run total
Weather permitting, Washington will square off against Julio Teheran this afternoon. The Atlanta pitcher has struggled against lefties this season, allowing a .390 wOBA, .264 ISO, 38.1% Hard%, and 43.2% (178 total LHB faced). That sets up a terrific spot for the big names – Bryce Harper (.449 wOBA, .361 ISO, 34.7% Hard%, 44.4% FB% this season vs. RHP) and Daniel Murphy (.399 wOBA, .217 ISO, 33.3% Hard%, 37.9% FB%) – along with Brian Goodwin (.309 wOBA, .255 ISO, 27.5% Hard%, 59.0% FB%) and Matt Wieters (.296 wOBA, .119 ISO, 35.2% Hard%, 37.5% FB%), who are currently projected to bat second and seventh, respectively. Teheran has been more effective against RHB (145 TBF) with a .306 wOBA and .157 ISO. He’s also limited hard contact to 24.1% and posted a higher Soft% of 28.7%, but he’s allowing plenty of fly balls (42.3%). Anthony Rendon appears to be one of the better options to take advantage of Teheran’s tendencies as he boasts a 45.7% FB% to go along with a 30.5% Hard%, which has enabled him to post a .188 ISO, and .345 wOBA vs. RHP this season. Another guy worth a look is Michael Taylor; he’s projected to be in the eighth spot today, but he’s the only other righty with a FB% above 40% (40.9%) and he has an ISO of .201 in split. Check the afternoon weather update to make sure this one will play. If it does, these batters will have great conditions: temperatures in the mid-80s and humidity reaching the mid-60s.
Other tagged players: Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon Braves-Nationals (YELLOW) only early game with weather concerns; several spots to monitor on main slate
We’re anticipating scattered storms in the D.C. area this afternoon but we’ll need another update prior to lock to see if they’ll impact Nationals Park. If the rain holds off, there will be favorable hitting conditions with game temperatures expected to be in the mid-80s and humidity reaching the mid-60s. It’ll be warm for the night games as well, with several of them expected to be in the 80s and none below 76 degrees at first pitch. The worst looking game is in St. Louis where the Cardinals will host the Brewers; it’s currently considered ORANGE/YELLOW. With scattered storms expected in various regions across the country, COL-PIT, ARI-DET, and LAD-CLE are all considered YELLOW while the BAL-CWS meeting is currently YELLOW/GREEN. Be sure to check back this afternoon to see how these games are shaping up.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Lots of cheap, top of the lineup Outfield options to compliment high priced pitching tonight
Players looking to pay up for Clayton Kershaw and several expensive bats have a lot of cheap options at the tops of some decently projected lineups tonight to help them along. Ryan Raburn bats second for the minimum on DraftKings against the R.A. Dickey in one of the two lineups projected for six runs tonight. The Padres open with Jose Pirela ($3.1K DK, $2.5K FD) and Franchy Cordero ($2.5K DK, $2.4K FD) against Scott Feldman tonight. Jaycob Brugman ($2.2K either site) leads off for Oakland against Jose Urena. Joey Rickard ($3.2K DK, $2.5K FD) leads off against Derek Holland. We’ve covered several OF options, but there are some infield cheapies as well. Wilmer Flores has three HRs against Jon Lester and bats second. Further down in the order, we find Matt Davidson ($2.9K DK, $2.4K FD), who homered last night and has a .250 ISO vs RHP since last season.
Other tagged players: Jose Pirela, Franchy Cordero, Jaycob Brugman, Joey Rickard, Wilmer Flores, Matt Davidson
Delay potential in a few spots tonight, but nothing worse than YELLOW in evening forecast
Several spots have the potential for a bit of the wet stuff tonight with Chicago (NL) New York and Baltimore Chicago (AL) being the only two spots Kevin gives a straight YELLOW to tonight. Though players have enough strong pitching options on tonight’s slate to pivot from these games if need be, it doesn’t yet sound like anyone needs to be avoided on tonight’s slate, but be sure to follow Kevin on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates on the conditions. Players can read Kevin’s full and lengthy forecast tonight, in which he touches on most games, on the Weather page.
Washington, Boston and Seattle bats projected to be most popular tonight
Clayton Kershaw is the top pitcher on the board and expected to be the most popular one as well. However, David Price has looked good in two starts not against the Yankees and projects to fare well again against the Phillies tonight. He may go a bit under-owned at 15% or less with Zack Greinke potentially in around 10% of lineups. Due to a price tag below $3K, Andrew Benintendi may be a top value on FanDuel, but is also projected to be the most popular batter on the slate, the only one expected to be in more than 15% of lineups on either site. As a group, besides Washington and Boston, the top implied run lines, Seattle projects to be fairly popular tonight. Facing a pitcher with the highest SIERA on the board over the last two calendar years (5.22), Brian McCann and Carlos Correa are the only Houston bats projected at even 10% ownership rates. Premium subscribers can find projected ownership rates for all players on the Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Brian McCann, Carlos Correa, Clayton Kershaw, David Price, Zack Greinke R.A. Dickey has a minuscule 1.9% K-BB% this season
Despite tossing a gem against an exploitable Philadelphia Phillies lineup his last time out, R.A. Dickey continues to be an extremely hittable pitcher at this stage of his career, allowing at least five runs in two of his last three starts, but he seems to somehow do just enough, consistently enough, to limit damage that the Atlanta Braves are able to keep utilizing him as an innings eater for their young and eventually up and coming squad. This year, Dickey has seen a drastic drop in his already low strikeout rate, down to 12.4% to go along with a 10.6% walk rate. As usual with his knuckleball, Dickey has managed to induce groundballs at a respectable clip (51.1%) and limit hard contact to just 28.4% of the time. With the aforementioned low strikeouts and high walks, it’s difficult to imagine Dickey’s 4.86 ERA improving with a terrible 5.52 SIERA. When attacking Dickey with opposing batters, a problem arises with a bit of guesswork in figuring out which individual batters to utilize against him, as the nature of a knuckleball makes at bat outcomes relatively unpredictable. This makes the Washington Nationals more of an offense to stack or fade in tournaments tonight since there should be plenty of baserunners with a high probability of home runs but difficult to predict where said production will come from. Bryce Harper (183 wRC+, .454 wOBA, .371 ISO vs RHP), Ryan Zimmerman (178 wRC+, .447 wOBA, .301 ISO vs RHP), and Daniel Murphy (142 wRC+, .391 wOBA, .204 ISO vs RHP) are the top hitters to target in tournament stack, while Trea Turner (117 wRC+, .354 wOBA, .203 ISO vs RHP) and Ryan Raburn, who is minimum priced on DraftKings, are more logical fits as hitters to round out a Nationals stack in tournaments opposed to individual one-offs.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Ryan Zimmerman, Daniel Murphy, Trea Turner, Ryan Raburn, R.A. Dickey
Nick Martinez has a 5.22 SIERA over the last two calendar years
Among tonight’s starters with more than two starts, Nick Martinez (5.22) is the only one with a SIERA above five over the last two calendar years. In addition, his 6.03 xFIP on the road since last season is also highest on the board by more than half a run. The Houston offense has cooled down over the last week (96 wRC+), but still has a 120 wRC+ vs RHP with just an 18 K% that when combined with Martinez’s 13.7 K% this season, suggests a lot of good contact and an excellent stacking opportunity tonight. With three offenses (Washington, Boston, and Minnesota) owning higher run lines, a quality Houston lineup may get lost in the shuffle. This is where their higher price tags can offer an advantage if players are willing to pay down for a pitcher (or at least one of two on DraftKings). All nine starters in the Houston lineup tonight have at least a 98 wRC+ against RHP since last season with Nori Aoki the only one below a .175 ISO and 31 Hard%. Among the first five, only Jose Altuve is below a 40% hard hit rate over the last week, suggesting Carlos Correa’s 21 wRC+ has been a bit unlucky over that span. LHBs have a .391 wOBA against Martinez since last season with a 33.6 Hard%, but RHBs have a .340 wOBA with a 17.9 HR/FB against him as well. While many lineups may have a batter or two that stands out, this Houston lineup may work best as a stack that just moves the train along and produces a lot of runs against a poor pitcher.
Other tagged players: Jose Altuve, Norichika Aoki, Nick Martinez Mookie Betts and Andrew Benintendi project as top values on FanDuel
Bryce Harper, Mookie Betts and Paul Goldschmidt are the top projected point accumulators according to tonight’s RotoGrinders Player Projections. Goldschmidt is the only one in a lineup with an implied run line below five runs or even 5.9. The difficulty here is that Buck Farmer has actually been quite good both in AAA (17.3 K-BB%) and in his two major league starts this year (16 Ks – 46 BF) without allowing a run in 12 innings. Bryce Harper is facing the knuckleball. In 20 career PAs against Dickey, he’s struck out seven times without a HR and a 76.6 mph aEV on just three BBEs. It’s not a lot of information, but there aren’t many knuckleballs in the league. Mookie Betts (136 wRC+,.205 ISO vs RHP since 2016) makes tremendous sense against rookie Ben Lively though and even appears more affordably priced than normal tonight ($4.6K/$3.7K). Teammate Andrew Benintendi compliments as a potential top value on FanDuel (3.9 Pt/$/K) for less than $3K, though Betts (3.73 Pt/$/K) isn’t far behind along with Robinson Cano (3.79 Pt/$/K) against Kyle Gibson. DraftKings likes a lot of sub-$3K bats for value, but sees Mark Trumbo (2.53 Pt/$/K) generating the most points per dollar for those projected for at least seven points tonight.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Andrew Benintendi, Bryce Harper, Robinson Cano, Paul Goldschmidt, Mark Trumbo Adam Duvall has a 257 sOPS+ against ground ball pitchers this year
Both Tyler Chatwood and Clayton Richard have 58% ground ball rates this year in interesting situations tonight. The Pirates have just an 88 sOPS+ against ground ball pitchers this year, sixth worst in baseball in a park that punishes RH power. However, the Pirates take walks and don’t strike out a lot (9.8 K-BB% vs RHP, 9.4% at home). Attention has been paid recently to Chatwood’s success on the road, but he’s walked at least three in eight of his last 10 starts (though the two with fewer were each of his last two) with four or fewer strikeouts in seven of his last 11. His road success has come against teams like the Padres, Phillies, Giants and struggling Cubs. That’s not to suggest he won’t successfully prevent runs here, but what are you getting beyond his $8K price tag? Clayton Richard has had trouble keeping runs off the board with a .374 BABIP over his last 10 starts. He’s not generating ground balls at as dominant a rate as he was earlier in the season, but has still been at 54% over that span with just a league average 31.3% of contact regarded as hard hit. He does have a respectable, if not league average, SwStr% though and has only allowed three HRs at home. The Reds have power (18.9 HR/FB vs LHP, 21.5 HR/FB over the last week) and are seventh with a 114 sOPS+ against ground ballers. LHBs (79.5 GB% since last season) should probably be omitted, but RHBs like Adam Duvall (131 wRC+, .278 ISO vs LHP since 2016) and Eugenio Suarez (135 wRC+, .247 ISO vs LHP since 2016) have punished GB pitchers for a 257 and 149 sOPS+ respectively this season. That said, Richard may also be usable as a Kershaw or Greinke compliment for just $5K on DraftKings in a negative run environment as well.
As reported by: Baseball-Reference GB/FB Team Splits Other tagged players: Eugenio Suarez, Clayton Richard, Tyler Chatwood Jason Vargas (37 GB%) and Derek Holland (38.7 GB%) facing bottom five offenses vs fly ball pitchers
Jason Vargas has seen his strikeout rate plummet to his normal career rates after a hot couple of starts in April and the 68 same handed batters (LH) he has faced since last year have a .430 wOBA against him, but this is still a difficult spot in which to take advantage of potential short comings. While San Francisco destroys LH power, the Giants combine a 75 wRC+ at home and 77 wRC+ vs LHP with a bottom three 88 sOPS+ against fly ball pitchers this year. Another matchup players might think they can take advantage of is Derek Holland against the Orioles, but Baltimore combines a 93 wRC+ on the road with a 95 wRC+ vs LHP and an 89 sOPS+ vs fly ball pitchers (fourth worst in baseball). In fact, of those projected to start tonight, only Trey Mancini (129 sOPS+, five HRs) and Welington Castillo (108 sOPS+, two HRs) have been above average against fly ball pitchers with the good news being that both mash lefties as well and can certainly be employed tonight. The trickier questions concern middle of the order batters. Manny Machado (135 wRC+, .218 ISO vs LHP since 2016) has five HRs, but just a 54 sOPS+ against fly ball pitchers and may be dealing with the lingering effects of a wrist issue sustained last week. Mark Trumbo has five HRs (51 PAs), but just an 84.5 mph aEV (seven BBEs) against Holland with a 90 sOPS+ and just two HRs against fly ball pitchers.
As reported by: Baseball-Reference GB/FB Team Splits Other tagged players: Welington Castillo, Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo, Jason Vargas, Derek Holland Zack Greinke has a 30 K%, but 37 Hard%, while the Tigers have a 50.4 Hard% at home
Clayton Kershaw is the top projected pitcher on the slate, though the RotoGrinders Player Projections see both David Price and Jon Lester outperforming the second costliest pitcher, Zack Greinke, in his matchup against a hard hitting Detroit offense. The Daily K Predictor gives Greinke the third most strikeouts tonight (7.14) behind Kershaw (8.67) and Marco Estrada. Both Greinke and Estrada have interesting matchups. The latter has struck out seven or more batters in eight of his last 11 starts and faces a Rays’ offense with a 25.8 K% vs RHP, but they are responsible for five of his 11 HRs allowed this season with an 18 HR/FB on the road and vs RHP. Greinke has realized he no longer has a fastball and has increased his slider usage to 26%, generating a 30 K% and 14.5 SwStr%. The Tigers have a 23.2 K% vs RHP. However, Zack’s mistakes are being pummeled (37% hard hit rate), while the Tigers have a 50.4 Hard% at home and 42.7% vs RHP. He may have the upside to rival Kershaw tonight with the highest K% on the slate among qualified pitchers, but there’s certainly a lot of risk to go along with it even in a game taking place outside of Arizona.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Marco Estrada, Clayton Kershaw, David Price, Jon Lester Mark Trumbo has five HRs against Derek Holland, but with just an 84.5 mph aEV
Mark Trumbo has homered five HRs in 51 PAs against Derek Holland, although neither he nor any of the three batters who have homered three times against tonight’s pitcher (Curtis Granderson, Wilmer Flores, Justin Upton) have an aEV above 87 mph with at least seven BBEs recorded by Statcast. Adrian Beltre also has three HRs against Brad Peacock, but just two Statcast recorded batted balls (104.2 mph aEV). Among batters with at least 10 BBEs with exit velocity information, just Evan Longoria has averaged above 87 mph. His 97.3 mph aEV on 12 BBEs against Marco Estrada comes with seven strikeouts in 25 PAs without an extra-base hit.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Matchups Other tagged players: Curtis Granderson, Wilmer Flores, Justin Upton, Adrian Beltre, Evan Longoria