DFS Alerts
Carlos Martinez has an outstanding 26.5% K-BB% versus RHB this season
Carlos Martinez is coming off an absolute gem his last time out against the Philadelphia Phillies, pitching a complete game shutout in route to a season-high 11 strikeouts. This evening he’ll take on a Baltimore Orioles squad that is without their best left-handed hitter in Chris Davis and will now be forced to roll out seven right-handed batters, which is always a positive sign for Martinez, as he has some serious control (12.2% BB%) and hard contact (38.0%) issues against left-handed batters. It also doesn’t hurt that the Orioles now lack any lefty bats that would give us any serious cause for concern in rostering Martinez tonight. He has also been as dominant as ever against right-handed batters this season, evidenced by a 31.5% strikeout rate, 5.0% walk rate, and a below-average 27.2% hard hit rate to go along with solid groundball skills to hitters from both sides of the plate. Piling on to the argument of playing Martinez is the fact that the Orioles own a lofty 22.6% strikeout rate and rank 23rd in wOBA against right-handed pitching, which just further elevates Martinez’s floor and ceiling in this matchup. Clearly, the aforementioned statistics vault Martinez into the tier of one of the top starting pitching options on Friday’s slate, and even possibly, someone we would consider going all-in on in tournaments given his high floor and upside combination, especially if opting to fully fade the game in Coors Field for large-field tournaments.
As reported by: FanGraphs
RotoGrinders Player Projections see three Coors bats among top five tonight
Three of the top five projected point accumulators are at Coors according to tonight’s RotoGrinders Player Projections (Charlie Blackmon, Brandon Belt, Nolan Arenado) rounded out by Mookie Betts against reverse platoon pitcher Mike Fiers and Aaron Judge facing the left-handed Sean Manaea in Oakland. Belt also doubles as a top value on Fanduel (3.79 Pt/$/K) with only Chase Utley projecting slightly better (3.8 Pt/$/K). The projections like min-priced Ryan Raburn (3.09 Pt/$/K) in the two slot tonight as the only player above three points per thousand. Among batters projected for at least eight DK points, Kyle Seager is at 2.35 Pt/$/K for a Seattle lineup facing Tyson Ross in his first major league start this year. In four rehab starts, he walked as many as he struck out and capped it off by allowing three HRs in his last one.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Mookie Betts, Brandon Belt
Leury Garcia scratched, Alen Hanson bats leadoff
Leury Garcia has been scratched and Alen Hanson will bat leadoff for the White Sox in his place.
As reported by: Daryl Van Schouwen Other tagged players: Alen Hanson Miguel Sano has a 99.1 mph aEV on nine BBEs against Carlos Carrasco without a HR
Three batters have three HRs against the pitcher they are facing tonight and of the three, Albert Pujols has the highest aEV (95.9 mph), but fewest BBEs (six) against Ian Kennedy. While nothing has changed on Kennedy’s end as a HR prone pitcher, Pujols has just an 89 wRC+ and .161 ISO vs RHP this season. Brian Dozier (88.9 mph aEV, 9 BBEs) and Michael Conforto (90.7 mph aEV, 10 BBEs) are the other two batters with three HRs. Of batters with at least 10 Statcast recorded BBEs against tonight’s opposing pitcher, only Howie Kendrick (95.4 mph aEV, 11 BBEs) exceeds a 95 mph aEV, but without an extra-base hit in 17 PAs against Patrick Corbin. In nine BBEs, Miguel Sano has a 99.1 mph aEV against Carlos Carrasco without a HR, but just one strikeout.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Matchups Other tagged players: Albert Pujols, Michael Conforto One-third of tonight's pitchers have a strikeout rate above 24%.
Two-thirds of tonight’s pitchers have a strikeout rate above 20% with one-third above 24% (small sample sizes apply to some). Additionally, three of the 10 below a 20 K% have a swinging strike rate above 9.5%. Max Scherzer is the top pitcher on any slate he’s on, atop the Daily K Predictor (8.54) and RotoGrinders Player Projections tonight, but there are plenty of great ways to go tonight. Alex Wood doesn’t generally go deep into games, but brings you a 30.4 K-BB% and 75.3 GB% in six starts since the beginning of May for $9.1K or less. Jeff Samardzija is discounted to $7.5K or less at Coors and is third in the majors with a 25.2 K-BB%. Luis Severino is seventh (22.0 K-BB%) and gets a park upgrade in Oakland. Carlos Martinez has a 29.6 K% over the last month and faces a Baltimore lineup with very little LH power with Chris Davis out. James Paxton faces a Texas offense with a 70 wRC+ and 27 K% vs LHP and Joe Biagine has a strong 14.4 K-BB% with a 59.8 GB% and 24.8 Hard% vs RHP in his role as a starter (seven starts). Just about any of these guys would be top choices and/or values on most slates. While Max Scherzer is never a poor choice, finding the right pitcher at low enough ownership could win a GPP for someone tonight.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Alex Wood, Jeff Samardzija Cody Bellinger has six HRs over the last week and a .348 ISO (47% fly ball rate) vs RHP this year
Four hitters exceed a 300 wRC+ (10 PA min.) over the last week, all with exactly three HRs over that span. Brandon Drury (348 wRC+, .62.5 Hard%, three HRs) has generated fly balls in just 29.9% of PAs against RHPs since last season, while Aaron Nola has kept RHBs on the ground 54.8% of the time with an above average strikeout rate over that time. Edwin Encarnacion (323 wRC+, 41.2 Hard%, three HRs) mashes lefties (144 wRC+, .241 ISO since last season), but Minnesota 27 year-old rookie Nik Turley is a bit of an unknown. He’s had starts of 14 and 15 strike outs at AAA this season, but has lapses in control. Eduardo Escobar (316 wRC+, 39.1 Hard%, three HRs) is on the other side of that matchup against Carlos Carrasco, who has surrendered a 37.3 Hard% to LHBs since last season. Escobar has just a 74 wRC+ and .113 ISO vs RHP over the same time span. Gary Sanchez (310 wRC+, 40 Hard%, three HRs) has carried his hot streak to more difficult parks out west. He faces a tough lefty (Sean Manaea), who has allowed a 35.2 Hard% to RHBs since last season though. Cody Bellinger (275 wRC+, 55.6 Hard%, six HRs) is a bonus bat here due to the six HRs. He has a 133 wRC+ and .348 ISO vs RHP generating a 47% fly ball rate against a HR prone pitcher in Cincinnati with a 29.3 GB% against LHBs since last season.
Other tagged players: Brandon Drury, Edwin Encarnacion Entire Dodger infield makes for a great stack against HR prone Tim Adleman
The Rockies and Giants have the highest implied run lines tonight at Coors, though with the home team facing a good pitcher in Jeff Samardzija and the Giants continuing to be a woeful offense, the jury is out on how popular Coors bats will be tonight, though Charlie Blackmon certainly projects well against a pitcher allowing a .336 wOBA to LHBs since last season. In all, eight teams are pegged for five runs or better by Vegas despite the plethora of quality arms on the mound tonight, though Milwaukee is the last of three teams currently above 5.5 runs. They face a rookie reliever (Miguel Diaz) making his second start, but after lasting just 46 pitches in his first one, the Brewers are likely to see a lot of the bullpen. The Dodgers may be the most interesting team in that grouping of eight. They travel to Cincinnati tonight to face a fly ball pitcher (38.7 GB%), who has been a bit HR prone (24 in 127 major league innings). Corey Seager (148 wRC+, .210 ISO vs RHP since 2016), Cody Bellinger (133 wRC+, .348 ISO vs RHP career), Justin Turner (149 wRC+, .226 ISO vs RHP since 2016) and Chase Utley (112 wRC+, .159 ISO vs RHP since 2016) should make a great daily fantasy infield tonight in the first four slots in the Dodger lineup.
Other tagged players: Cody Bellinger, Justin Turner Jordan Montgomery expected to be a popular secondary pitcher behind Sale
Colorado Rockies are expected to dominate ownership rates tonight, while Chris Sale should be the most popular pitcher. Neither of those should come as a surprise, but the question is who’s after Sale and how players intend to fit all of those expensive options in lineups. The answer might be Jordan Montgomery and also Justin Verlander in a secondary role on DraftKings. Expected to be in fewer than 5% of lineups on either site, players should consider that Jeff Hoffman has struck out 34 of 102 batters and faces an offense with a 79 wRC+ on the road an 78 wRC+ vs RHP. On the offensive side, if Verlander is going to be a popular secondary choice that means that Tampa Bay bats could go under-owned. They’ve homered on 18.9% of fly balls this year and are facing a pitcher who has allowed a lot of hard contact in the air (33.3 GB%, 89.1 mph aEV).
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Chris Sale, Justin Verlander Just one game with low risk rain potential in the evening forecast
Kevin has identified Tampa Bay Detroit as the only spot that could see some rain during game hours, but concern is fairly low. The rest of the slate appears clear with a note that warm and humid temperatures in St Louis could mean a more offensive friendly environment. Read the full forecast on the Weather page and be sure to follow Kevin on Twitter (KevinRothWx) for further updates.
PlateIQ suggests Ian Desmond could be one of the better Colorado matchups against Matt Moore
The Rockies are have an implied run line an entire run higher than any other team tonight. Players are going to attempt to cram their lineups full of as many Colorado bats that will fit along with their pitching choices. Matt Moore has allowed LHBs a slightly higher wOBA (.320 – .315) over his career, though a lot higher this year (.481 – .319), so perhaps Charlie Blackmon (116 wRC+, .169 ISO vs LHP since 2016) is as ideal as Nolan Arenado (137 wRC+, .293 ISO vs LHP since 2016) tonight, but we can use PitchIQ to see which batters match up the best. Moore likes to go with a fastball/curveball/cutter combo against LHBs and use his changeup as often as the latter two pitches against RHBs this year. Isolating Blackmon, the pitcher is hottest lower middle and outer middle, the latter being a hot spot for Blackmon, but lower middle (9% for Moore) coincides with one of his worst zones (3.4% hit rate). Further, Blackmon has struggled against the cutter, while being no better than average against fastballs and curves. Moore most often goes outside (8.8%), but also often middle and down and in. While Arenado handles those secondary locations well, the outer middle is one of his coldest zones this year (3.7% hit rate). He has also struggles against the change-up. Mark Reyonlds has a 0% hit rate on the outer part that Moore likes to work in. Ian Desmond actually appears to be the bat that might match up the strongest. He’s handled both that part of the plate and Moore’s secondary zones well and though he’s struggled with the changeup, has handled curveballs and cutters well. The Rockies should still fare well at home against a poor pitcher, but individual matchups may not be ideal and a lot of their RHBs struggle against changeups, perhaps why they have just a 90 wRC+ and 17.2 K-BB% against LHP this year with so many RH bats.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado Chris Sale is the unquestioned king of the slate, but who else?
Chris Sale is the unquestioned king of this slate. The Daily K Predictor (8.75) has him with a one strikeout lead over Verlander and three more than anybody else with a double digit point projection lead via the RotoGrinders Player Projections against all other pitchers. Fade at your own risk against the Phillies because massive ownership concerns are really the only reason one can think of not to use him tonight. If not him, then who else though? While also considering you’ll need a second pitcher on DraftKings. Though Justin Verlander may project to accumulate a few strikeouts against the Rays (25.7 K% vs RHP), he’s been struggling this year, allowing way too many walks with a lot of hard contact in the air and fewer strikeouts. Jeff Hoffman has faced three poor teams on the road and generates a lot of fly balls (50.8%), but is facing one of the worst offenses in the league (San Francisco) at Coors and has struck out 34 of 102 batters with a 13.0 SwStr%. Even expecting a step backwards, he could pay off at $7.5K on DraftKings or $900 less on FanDuel. Jordan Montgomery has a 23 K% and has limited hard contact to 25%. At a reasonable price, he pitches in Oakland against an offense striking out 25.3% of the time against lefties. On the other side of that matchup, Sonny Gray may have the toughest matchup on the board (Yankees 125 wRC+ vs RHP, 175 wRC+ over the last week), but has increased his slider usage to 30% in two of his last four starts resulting in a combined 21 strikeouts in those efforts. Might he do the same again tonight against a predominantly RH Yankee lineup?
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Jordan Montgomery, Jeff Hoffman Juan Lagares and Yoenis Cespedes have hit Gio Gonzalez hard
While it’s not always the most credible data, we still like to see when some our favorite hitters on any given night match up strongly with BvP information and that seems to be the case tonight in a few cases. Matt Carpenter has homered twice against Zach Davies with four extra-base hits in 16 PAs with a 97.1 mph aEV on 11 BBEs, while a couple of Mets match up well with Gio Gonzalez. Yoenis Cespedes has homered twice in 12 PAs with a 95.2 mph aEV on seven BBEs, but it’s actually Juan Lagares who has the most BBEs on the slate (15) against tonight’s pitcher. In 40 PAs, he’s had five extra-base hits with a 93.9 mph aEV. An added bonus, Lagares has been swinging the bat well with a 120 wRC+ and 31.3 Hard% over the last week.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Matchups Other tagged players: Yoenis Cespedes, Gio Gonzalez Using PlateIQ to break down Justin Verlander against the Rays tonight
Justin Verlander’s walk rate has doubled (11.1%) while he’s striking out batters at just a league average rate (20.7%) and much lower over the last month (16.5%), allowing a lot of hard contact in the air this year (33.3 GB%, 89.1 mph aEV). The Rays do strike out a lot (25.7% vs RHP), but also do damage (18.5 HR/FB on the road, 18.9 HR/FB vs RHP, 23.4 HR/FB last seven days) making this an ideal matchup to examine with PlateIQ today. It’s important to note that Verlander has little career split, but has been slightly worse vs RHBs with a bit of a split leaning that way this season (RHBs .338 wOBA, 42.2 Hard%). Against those batters, Verlander has been living on the outside, but mostly in the middle outer part (13.3%), which could explain his struggles right there. Of the four RHBs in tonight’s lineup, Evan Longoria and Steven Souza are strong in that portion of the plate, but not the two bottom of the order guys. Verlanders has been fastball/slider/curveball, while we’d guess he throws the curve most often to lefties (PlateIQ does not specify). Longoria and Souza have both been strong against curves, while at least competent against sliders and heat, though Souza has been the more proficient of the two against this particular pitch mix over the last two years. Verlander doesn’t appear to have a favorite spot against LHBs this year, with the outer and inner middle being his “reddest” spots on the map. While Corey Dickerson is more of a middle and down guy, both Logan Morrison and Colby Rasmus have both punished outer middle pitches, though Dickerson has been the strongest of the three against sliders and curves this year and last two years. Morrison has been average against sliders with no success against curves. Rasmus has been a bit below average against each of those pitches this year, but better against curves in the past. As above average hitters against RHP, both Longoria and Souza appear viable plays tonight, while the three mentioned lefties may not appear as ideal in this spot, but have all been hammering LHP for better than a 130 wRC+ and .290 ISO this season. In addition, the first seven batters in the order all have a wRC+ above 130 over the last week.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: Justin Verlander, Steven Souza Many of the week's hottest bats are some of the top ones tonight, even against same handed pitching
It’s rare that the hottest bats on the slate (10 PA min. over the last week) also project strongly that night too, but that may be the case tonight. Gary Sanchez (318 wRC+, 40 Hard%, five HRs) homered last night and is the hottest bat on the slate over the last week. He does have a tougher matchup with a ground ball pitcher (Sonny Gray) in a tough park, but RHBs have a .358 wOBA and 36.5 Hard% against Gray since last season. Ryan Zimmerman (300 wRC+, 40 Hard%, two HRs) faces another ground ball pitcher (Robert Gsellman), who has struggled more with RHBs (.352 wOBA career). Aaron Judge (283 wRC+, 59.1 Hard%, four HRs) is the hot list resident. Raimel Tapia (277 wRC+, 11.1 Hard%, 0 HRs) appears to have gotten a bit lucky with a .667 BABIP in his return to the majores, but has just a 7.7 K% in his first 13 PAs and is in a spot where LHBs have had more success than RHBs against Matt Moore (.346 wRC+, 36.6 Hard%). Yoenis Cespedes (258 wRC+, 41.7 Hard%, one HR) got last night off, but should be back in against another lefty tonight (Gio Gonzalez) . He can probably jump out of bed and crush baseballs. An ideal value play at First Base tonight against Zach Davies (LHBs .340 wOBA career), Matt Carpenter is also one of the hottest bats over the last week (251 wRC+, 52.2 Hard%, two HRs).
Other tagged players: Ryan Zimmerman, Aaron Judge Tampa Bay's .209 ISO vs. RHP leads the league this season
The Rays visit Detroit tonight for a matchup against Justin Verlander (weather permitting; we could get an extended delay early in the game). Verlander’s price has dropped by $3.1k on DraftKings since May 30th ($7.6k), which will draw some interest from fantasy players. However, they may be better served stacking against him. The primary concern is Tampa Bay’s giant 25.7% K% against RHP this year; Verlander’s is still 20.7%, but his SwStr% is down 3.1% from a year ago to 8.9%. At the same time his SIERA is up 1.52 to 4.94 while his Hard% is up 9.3% to 38.2% and his FB% remains high at 45.3%. In addition to a high ISO, the Rays have a high 36.4% Hard% and rank 11th in FB% (37.1%) against RHP this season. Vegas has given them a relatively low projected run total of 4.34, which makes them interesting for tournaments. Not only will that keep their ownership down, but so will Verlander’s price as players try to buy low on him. Morrison (.327 ISO, 44.6% FB%, 45.5% Hard% vs. RHP this year), Dickerson (.306 ISO, 43.6% FB%, 39.0% Hard%), Souza (.275 ISO, 34.0% FB%, 33.3% Hard%), and Rasmus (.299 ISO, 45.0% FB%, 44.3% Hard%) immediately stick out as solid options tonight in this spot.
