DFS Alerts
Mallex Smith (305 wRC+, 41.7 Hard%) is one of four with a wRC+ above 300 over the last week
Scooter Gennett (380 wRC+, 53.3 Hard%, four HRs) retains the highest wRC+ in the league over the last week (min. 10 PAs) due to his four HR game. He hasn’t hit one since, but has gone five for 13 starting sporadically. He’s very unlikely to start against Clayton Richard tonight (LHBs 79.5 GB% since last season). Edwin Encarnacion (347 wRC+, 45.5 Hard%, two HRs) has picked up the pace, but has just a .147 ISO against southpaws this season and only faces Clayton Kershaw tonight. Aaron Judge (321 wRC+, 70 Hard%, four HRs) moves from Yankee Stadium to the Big A in Los Angeles with no problems. JC Ramirez has seen his strikeout and swinging strike rates plummet over the last month (13.9%, 7.2%), which isn’t ideal in this matchup. Mallex Smith (305 wRC+, 41.7 Hard%, two) has returned to the Tampa Bay lineup with some thunder in his bat. Not considered a power hitter, he faces an extreme fly ball pitcher (34.6 GB% this year), who has allowed eight HRs over his last seven starts.
Other tagged players: Aaron Judge, Edwin Encarnacion, Scooter Gennett
Aaron Judge has a 209 wRC+, .391 ISO, 51.4 Hard% vs RHP
Seven offenses have an implied run line higher than 4.9 on Tuesday evening before a quarter of a run drop off. Boston and Washington are the top projected offenses tonight, reaching nearly six runs against a rookie (Ben Lively) and knuckleballer (R.A. Dickey) respectively. Considering the nature of the knuckleball, it’s the type of pitcher we might pay more BvP attention to, noticing that Ryan Zimmerman and Bryce Harper both have at least 20 PAs in this matchup with Zimmerman (two HRs, 95.4 mph aEV, four BBEs) having more success than Harper (0 HR, 76.6 mph aEV, three BBEs). There are some strong individual batter trends on this slate though. RHBs hit eight of 10 batted balls hard (50 LD%) against Jacob Faria in his major league debut, making Josh Donaldson (159 wRC+, .286 ISO vs RHP since 2016) more interesting considering his 285 wRC+ and 69.2 Hard% over the last week. While Gerrit Cole has a matchup that might be interesting enough to consider tonight, one batter that should have success is Charlie Blackmon (141 wRC+, .283 ISO vs RHP, 132 wRC+ on the road since 2016). LHBs have a .377 wRC+ against Cole since last season with a 38.8 Hard%. The unfortunate part is that he’s priced as if all his games are played at Coors. Aaron Judge has a 209 wRC+ and .391 ISO with a 51.4 Hard% vs RHP this year. Every park is like Coors to him. Christian Bergman has faced 90 RHBs this year, who have a .401 wOBA against him, which should serve Miguel Sano (121 wRC+, .238 ISO vs RHP since 2016).
Other tagged players: Josh Donaldson, Miguel Sano, Charlie Blackmon, Ryan Zimmerman, Bryce Harper Brandon Woodruff scratched from Tuesday's start; LHP Brent Suter to start Game 1
Woodruff has been scratched with right hamstring tightness which will afford Suter the chance to start Game 1 of the Cardinals doubleheader. Since this is the only early game of the day, it doesn’t have any real DFS implications.
As reported by: @Brewers Other tagged players: Brandon Woodruff
Bryce Harper projects as tonight's top hitter, Andrew Benintendi a top value on FanDuel
Although projected by Vegas as the top offense tonight, only Mookie Betts appears among the top five overall batters via RotoGrinders Player Projections for the Red Sox. Bryce Harper gets the highest projected point total tonight as LHBs have a .334 wOBA and 33.5 Hard% against Mike Foltynewicz since last season. Andrew Benintendi is potentially in line to return great value on FanDuel tonight for just $2.8K (4.14 Pt/$/K), while DraftKings players might want to look towards potential top of the order bats in San Diego, either Jose Pirela (3 Pt/$/K) or Franchy Cordero (2.83 Pt/$/DK), each less than $2.5K against Bronson Arroyo.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Andrew Bogut, Mookie Betts, Jose Pirela, Franchy Cordero Stephen Strasburg and Boston Red Sox expected to be very popular tonight
Stephen Strasburg is projected to be the over-whelming favorite in daily fantasy lineups tonight, perhaps twice as popular as any other pitcher on FanDuel. While there are legitimate reasons Jacob deGrom and Yu Darvish aren’t expected to be among the top three most owned pitchers tonight, at their best, these pitchers can dominate any lineup and may be worth a closer look tonight. Boston batters, in particular Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi and Xander Bogaerts should all be substantially owned tonight with an implied run line above six. Joey Votto at around 2% would appear a great contrarian play against a pitcher who has allowed LHBs a .368 wOBA and 38.6 Hard% since last year, pitching half of his games at Petco. Premium subscribers can find potential rates of ownership for all players on the Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Xander Bogaerts, Joey Votto, Jacob deGrom, Yu Darvish Seattle @ Minnesota only game with any weather implications
Seattle at Minnesota is the only game with any expected weather implications tonight and even that appears to have the potential for no worse than a late start. Kevin also breaks down humidity with several stadiums reaching season high temperatures over the last few days. Read the full report on our Weather page and follow Kevin on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page Luis Perdomo (66.3 GB%) faces the sixth best offense against GB pitchers (115 sOPS+)
Of the three predominant ground ball pitchers on tonight’s slate, two (Luis Perdomo 66.3% and Kyle Freeland 57.5%) are more extreme than the other (Jameson Taillon 52.9%), while Wade Miley (55.4%) has experienced a five point uptick in grounders this year. Freeland faces one of the worst offenses against ground ball pitchers. The Pirates have a just an 87 sOPS+, but Freeland doesn’t miss enough bats (14.8 K%) to take advantage of this. This may be a spot to avoid all together. Perdomo faces a Cincinnati offense that excels against ground ball pitchers (115 sOPS+). He’s held RHBs on the ground 68.5% of the time since last season, but LHBs (52.5 GB%) are certainly worth a look here. Joey Votto has a 152 sOPS+ against ground ballers, but he’s generally that good vs everybody. The Rockies are an even stronger team against ground ballers (118 sOPS+), but part of that may be due to Coors. Pittsburgh is a very difficult park for RH power. The White Sox are proficient vs LHP (121 wRC+) and average against ground ball pitchers (100 sOPS+), which still gives the bats some advantage at moderate or low costs tonight, though Avisail Garcia has struggled to elevate against LHP (24.5 FB% this year) despite his 42.9 Hard% against them.
As reported by: Baseball-Reference GB/FB Team Splits Other tagged players: Luis Perdomo, Kyle Freeland, Jameson Taillon, Wade Miley, Avisail Garcia Yu Darvish has posted a sub-2.75 SIERA and 33.3% K% in his last two starts
Yu Darvish has been relatively inconsistent this season but seems to be righting the ship as of late, recording seven or more strikeouts in four of his last five starts in correspondence with three quality starts during that span. Though the matchup with a Houston Astros squad that owns the lowest strikeout rate in the entire league at 18.1% is far from ideal, the primary appeal in rostering Darvish tonight is his extremely depressed price tag across the industry, a silly $8.8K on DraftKings and $10.0K on FanDuel. There’s this notion that the strikeouts are way down for Darvish this season, which on the surface is true, but this is still a guy that has a 26.5% strikeout rate on the year that essentially matches his new price tier, or even provides value, as we no longer have to pay top dollar to be disappointed with a strikeout rate below 30% like earlier in the season. However, over his previous five starts, we’ve seen the strikeout rate rise to 28.2% and the increase is correlated with a jump in swinging strikes, up to 13.0%, which falls more in line with Darvish’s skillset and is just slightly higher than his career 12.1% swinging strike rate. It feels as if Darvish has been giving up a lot of runs, but that simply isn’t the case with nine straight starts allowing no more than three earned runs, and if the strikeouts had been even close to the ballpark of his normal standards, this would be a moot point and Darvish would not be priced like he is on either site. At this price point, especially on DraftKings, we don’t need a shutout or a complete game and a six or seven inning performance with eight or nine punchouts are more than enough to provide tournament winning upside from an SP2 or a contrarian option on single pitcher sites. There’s obviously risk involved here given the matchup but, dollar-for-dollar, Darvish is one of, if not, the top tournament play at pitcher on Monday’s entire slate.
As reported by: FanGraphs
Using PlateIQ to break down John Lackey vs the Mets
Michael Conforto gets the night off against John Lackey, who has a 12.6 SwStr% over the last month despite a concerning increase in hard contact. He’s been above 50% in three of his last four starts, which has led to five earned runs in each of those starts and 16 HRs in 12 outings overall. Jay Bruce has a 96 mph aEV against him on 16 recorded BBEs, though just a .172 batting average. Let’s see if PlateIQ can find an interesting path in this matchup. Lackey has ridden excessive Cutter usage this year (25.97%), living down and away. This seems to matchup well for Curtis Granderson and Niel Walker at the top of the lineup location-wise, but also Bruce and Asdrubel Cabrera, who have had the most success against Cutters and Curveballs (another pitch Lackey likes to throw more than 10% of the time) in limited opportunities this year. Going back a couple of seasons shows both of these batters with a decent history against Curveballs and average prowess against Cutters. Lackey doesn’t really have a preferred zone against RHBs, living more outside than in though. Over the last two seasons, Yoenis Cespedes have been prone only to pitches up in the zone, while punishing Curveballs and struggling a bit more than the average hitter against Cutters. Players setting multiple lineups may still wish to use Lackey, but may want to hedge with some exposure to top half of the order LH Mets tonight.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: Jay Bruce, Curtis Granderson, Neil Walker, Yoenis Cespedes, Asdrubal Cabrera Bronson Arroyo has allowed a HR in 11 of 12 starts, but Padres are second worst vs fly ball pitchers
Bronson Arroyo is the predominant fly ball pitcher on today’s slate (30.7 GB%) and Petco will be a real challenge to his 20 HRs allowed and at least one in all but one start. His 7.9% Barrels/PA is highest on the board, but could this be his second outing without allowing a HR? The Padres have an 81 wRC+ at home and 82 wRC+ vs RHP, though average HR rates. However, against fly ball pitchers, they have the second lowest sOPS+ (78) in baseball. Jerad Eickhoff is a fly ball pitcher as well (39.2 GB%) and Boston has the highest run line on the board, but have hit the second fewest HRs against fly ball pitchers (19 with a 102 sOPS+), while Eickhoff has allowed a modest eight HRs (10.0 HR/FB) this year. Yu Darvish (38.1 GB%) is the third pitcher on the slate with a GB rate below 40% both this season and over the last two calendar years. He’s looked better in recent starts (17 Ks last two), but the Astros have the fourth best sOPS+ (113) with the second most HRs (49) along with being beastly at home (16.0 HR/FB) and vs RHP (122 wRC+) this year.
As reported by: Baseball-Reference GB/FB Team Splits Other tagged players: Jerad Eickhoff, Yu Darvish Jay Bruce has two HRs (32 PAs) and a 96 mph aEV (16 BBEs) against John Lackey
Jay Bruce has two HRs (32 PAs) and a 96 mph aEV (16 BBEs) against John Lackey. That is the most abundant BvP information on this slate. Oddly, that elite exit velocity has resulted in just a .172 batting average (not something often quoted here) and only one additional extra-base hit. Three other batters have two HRs against the pitcher they are facing tonight in 12 PAs or fewer (Nomar Mazara vs Joe Musgrove, Kris Bryant vs Jacob deGrom, and George Springer vs Yu Darvish) with an aEV above 92 mph each, but with a combined 13 BBEs recorded by Statcast, essentially covering just a few games. In fact, only two other batters on the slate (Neil Walker and Nick Markakis) have more than 10 Statcast recorded BBEs against tonight’s pitcher, both with an aEV between 91 and 93 mph, but without an extra-base hit between them. Melky Cabrera does have a HR and 94.4 mph aEV on 9 BBEs in 12 PAs against Wade Miley.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Matchups Other tagged players: Neil Walker, John Lackey, Yu Darvish, George Springer, Melky Cabrera, Wade Miley, Kris Bryant, Jacob deGrom, Nomar Mazara, Joe Musgrove Stephen Strasburg is the clear top pitching option tonight according to projections
There are three $10K pitchers on either or both sites tonight (though Yu Darvish drops to $8.8K on DraftKings) with Stephen Strasburg (33.1 K% over the last month) holding the clear top overall spot on the RotoGrinders Player Projections against the Braves (91 wRC+ vs RHP). Rick Porcello even sneaks past two more expensive pitchers according to projections in a favorable matchup against the Phillies (85 wRC+ vs RHP). Porcello has similar peripherals to last year (17.3 K-BB%), but a 42.2% hard hit rate. The Daily K Predictor sees Yu Darvish (7.82) with the most upside, followed closely by Strasburg (7.46) and then Jacob deGrom (6.56). Another arm to consider might be sentimental favorite Jameson Taillon, who returns just a month after a cancer diagnoses. In three AA/AAA rehab starts, he dominated competition (30.5 K-BB%) just as he dominated cancer and even faced 29 batters in his last start, suggesting there may be no restrictions upon his return tonight. He faces a predominantly right-handed Colorado lineup with an 84 wRC+ vs RHP in a power RH power suppressing park.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Jacob deGrom, Yu Darvish, Rick Porcello, Jameson Taillon Scooter Gennett still riding historic night to top offensive performance over the last week
Four batters on tonight’s slate have a wRC+ above 300 over the last week (10 PA min.), all with a hard hit rate of at least 50% as well. Scooter Gennett (343 wRC+, 56.3 Hard%, four HRs) is still riding the wave of one monster game. He has just one double and a 96 wRC+ in 12 PAs since, but with a 44.4 Hard%. Luis Perdomo, tonight’s opponent, has had issues with LHBs (.368 wOBA, 38.6 Hard%, 52.5 GB% since last season). Aaron Judge (314 wRC+, 66.7 Hard%, three HRs)…is he ever not red hot? He does not have Yankee Stadium tonight and transitions to the west coast to face the Angels and Alex Meyer, who has allowed just three HRs this season in seven starts. RHBs have just a .303 wOBA against him since last year. His Achilles is the base on balls (15.3% this year). Mark Reynolds (308 wRC+, 50 Hard%, three HRs) continues to hit well on the road and has the power to get it out of any park, but Pittsburgh suppresses RH power more than almost any other park and it’s Jameson Taillon has held RHBs to a .309 wOBA since last season. Cameron Maybin (304 wRC+, 57.1 Hard%, no HRs) missed a few games and barely meets the cutoff, but has made up for lost time by swiping six bases in two games since returning. In this instance, we may be looking at Mashiro Tanaka and Gary Sanchez’s marginal ability to hold runners above anything else, although there’s a rumor that Tanaka appears to prefer Austin Romine. Be sure to watch for confirmed lineups tonight.
Other tagged players: Aaron Judge, Mark Reynolds, Cameron Maybin, Luis Perdomo, Alex Meyer, Jameson Taillon, Masahiro Tanaka, Gary Sanchez, Austin Romine Red Sox projected more than a run better than any other offense against Jerad Eickhoff
The Boston Red Sox are expected to absolutely pummel Jerad Eickhoff with an implied run line of 6.69, more than a run higher than the next best team. Eickhoff has allowed at least three runs in eight straight starts, but no more than five with peripherals in the mid-fours with a nearly league average strikeout rate and fairly standard contact authority (30.5 Hard%, 88.4 mph aEV, 6.7% Barrels/BBE). He’s a fly ball pitcher (39.9 GB% career), which is a danger in Fenway park, but it’s not like the Red Sox have been killing it this year (93 wRC+ at home, 95 wRC+ vs RHP). With stark platoon splits (RHBs .281 wOBA, LHBs .351 wOBA since 2016), your LH Boston bats are coveted players tonight, but Vegas seems a tad optimistic here. Six other offenses (Washington, Minnesota, Baltimore, Seattle, Chicago (AL), and Pittsburgh are also projected for 4.8 runs or higher before there’s about a quarter of a run drop-off to the rest of the field. Some of those offenses on the latter end may be a surprise, but the White Sox have been an elite offense vs LHP (121 wRC+). However, both Wade Miley (55.4 GB%) and Kyle Freeland (57.5 GB%) have strong ground ball leans and may not be ideal pitchers to pick on (ground balls generally don’t leave the yard). The two top overall offenses, the Yankees (128 wRC+ vs RHP) and Astros (122 wRC+), have not even been covered yet, in more difficult spots (Yankees in LA, Astros facing Yu Darvish). Despite the Vegas run lines, there does not appear to be a dominant stack tonight though several offenses may offer strong two or three batter mini-stacks, leading to diverse batter ownership tonight. Pitching may be another story with Stephen Strasburg the clear top overall arm, though both Jacob deGrom and Yu Darvish certainly have the potential to dominate any lineup on any given night.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Stephen Strasburg, Jacob deGrom, Wade Miley, Kyle Freeland, Yu Darvish Carlos Carrasco likely to go overlooked despite the White Sox's 3.6 run implied team total, second-lowest on Sunday's main slate
Carlos Carrasco is coming off of subpar outings in two of his last three starts in which he allowed at least four earned runs in each. However, he’ll receive the benefit of taking on a Chicago White Sox squad this afternoon that has been easy prey for right-handed pitching all season long. Carrasco’s walk rate has come up slightly (6.7% BB%), but other than that, his numbers this season are virtually in line with what he did last year, evidenced by his 25.3% strikeout rate, 11.7% SwStr% and 3.65 SIERA. He also has a respectable 46.2% groundball rate and below-average 29.3% hard hit rate that has seemed to normalize after a drastic spike last season. His hard-hit rate in the two previous seasons was 27.5% and 24.9%, for example. As previously mentioned, Carrasco receives the privilege of drawing a matchup with a White Sox lineup that ranks 27th in wRC+, 27th in wOBA, and 24th in ISO versus right-handed pitching. Piling on top of that, they own the seventh-highest strikeout rate (23.3%) and lowest walk rate (5.9%) in the entire league against righties. The downside with Carrasco normally is that he struggles with home runs from time to time, but that worry should be essentially nullified given Chicago’s overall lack of power. Even if he surrenders a home run or two, Carrasco has already proven his safety and upside in the matchup, pitching eight stellar innings and punching out eight at the end of April against this same White Sox team. With Carrasco’s recent struggles, he may go overlooked being priced so closely to Chris Archer, who is pitching at home and has posted some dominant outings recently, despite drawing the safer matchup of the two from a run prevention standpoint. This makes Carrasco an interesting pivot in large-field tournaments on Sunday’s main slate.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Lines and Vegas Odds