DFS Alerts
Nelson Cruz has a 98 mph aEV (12 BBEs) with three HRs against Hector Santiago
Nelson Cruz has a 162 wRC+ and .329 ISO against LHP since last season. If that’s not enough, he has a 320 wRC+ and 58.3 Hard% over the last week. RHBs have a 37.6 Hard% with 34 HRs since last season. It wouldn’t appear that players even need any PvB confirmation, but Cruz also has three HRs with in 20 PAs against Santiago as well, along with a 98 mph aEV on 12 BBEs. Anthony Rizzo actually has more HRs (four) against Jeff Locke, but with just an 84.8 mph aEV (15 BBEs). Mark Trumbo and Chris Davis each have three HRs against Ivan Nova, but with only seven total recorded BBEs combined. Joey Votto also has an aEV above 95 mph with more than 10 BBEs (12) against Adam Wainwright. His 96.5 mph aEV has yielded just two HRs in 49 PAs, but a total of six extra-base hits with just eight strikeouts.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Matchups Other tagged players: Joey Votto, Anthony Rizzo, Mark Trumbo, Chris Davis
Only 11 of tonight's 30 starters have a 2017 strikeout rate below 20%.
An unprecedented three pitchers (Max Scherzer, Jose Quintana, and Robbie Ray) project for eight strikeouts or more via the Daily K Predictor tonight. Quintana would be the surprise there with just a 7.8 SwStr% this year and 15 runs (four HRs) over his last seven innings, but the Rays have a 27.5 K% vs LHP. None of those three are even the top overall projected pitcher tonight (RotoGrinders Player Projections), as that falls on Chris Archer (not Max Scherzer) facing the White Sox. Archer has struck out one-third of batters on a 14.3 SwStr% over the last month, while the White Sox have a 17.2 K-BB% vs RHP. In addition, you have Jacob deGrom with a 31.5 K% and 15.2 SwStr% (both second on the slate) facing a Texas offense a Texas offense with a 31.8 K% over the last week. The Padres also have a 32.3 K% over the last week (facing Ray’s 30.2 K%). James Paxton makes it a fourth pitcher with a 30% strikeout rate on this slate (30.2%, 14.3 SwStr%), while we also have David Paulino (47.1 K% in one start), Dinelson Lamet (38.1 K% through two starts) and Jeff Locke (35 K% in one start) finding rare ground in small sample sizes as well. In fact, only 11 of tonight’s 30 starters have a strikeout rate below 20% this year.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Max Scherzer, Jose Quintana, Robbie Ray, Jacob deGrom, James Paxton, David Paulino, Dinelson Lamet, Jeff Locke Odubel Herrera has a 338 wRC+ over the last week and 133 wRC+ (.245 ISO) vs LHP this year
Odubel Herrera has a big night last night and now has the highest wRC+ in the majors over the last week. His 338 mark with a 56.3 Hard% has resulted in two HRs as he looks to continue the assault on Jaime Garcia tonight. Garcia actually generates fewer GBs against LHBs (48.9% since last season), while Herrerra has hit same handed pitching for an improved 133 wRC+, .245 ISO and 50 Hard% this year and would be an affordable contrarian pick. Nelson Cruz doesn’t need any more ammunition against Hector Santiago (RHBs 37.6 Hard% since 2016), but a 320 wRC+, 58.3 Hard% and two HRs over the last week gives him some anyway. George Springer has just a 26.1 Hard% over the last week and faces an unknown quantity in rookie Jakob Junis, but he’s been good for a 317 wRC+ and five HRs over the last week. Elvis Andrus has a tough assignment in Jacob deGrom, but the high upside righty hasn’t been flawless this year. Andrus has a 303 wRC+ and 43.8 Hard% (one HR) over the last week.
Other tagged players: Nelson Cruz, George Springer, Elvis Andrus Eight offenses have an implied run line higher than 4.8 tonight
Despite the collection of elite strikeout rates on this slate, there are no less than eight teams with an implied run line of 4.8 runs or more. The two most obvious and expensive are at Coors tonight, where an affordable Bradley Zimmer (179 wRC+, .342 ISO vs RHP) is likely your most affordable path towards exposure. A few Mets bats are cheap enough on FanDuel. They’ll meet up with old friend Dillon Gee in Texas. Red hot Lucas Duda has a 63.2 Hard% over the last week (three HRs) and costs less than $3K. The Mariners don’t have a ton of RH power, but they are projected favorably even in Safeco against Hector Santiago, who allows a ton of hard contact (above 35% since last season) to batters from either side of the plate. Nelson Cruz may be a difficult fit tonight, but speculating on Danny Valencia or Mike Zunino (both with a wRC+ in the 230s over the last week) costs much less. Houston is just pummeling everyone, so Kansas City has decided to throw rookie Jakob Junis (one major league start) at them because what can it hurt at this point. The Cardinals did little against an extreme fly ball pitcher in Cincinnati last night, but get another shot against Tim Adleman (21 HRs in 115.2 career IP). Drop down a bit more and Milwaukee could answer some questions against Matt Cain, including where you can find a cheap SS with upside at the top of the order. Eric Sogard has a 252 wRC+ and .152 ISO against RHP since returning to the majors and costs less than $3.5K on either site, while Eric Thames (157 wRC+, .310 ISO vs RHP) may be flying back under the radar with all of the talent at First Base. He’s been heating back up with a 161 wRC+ and 50 Hard% over the last week.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Bradley Zimmer, Nelson Cruz, Danny Valencia, Mike Zunino, Eric Sogard, Eric Thames Wade Davis to paternity list
Wade Davis will miss a few days against the Marlins on paternity leave. Carl Edwards is one potential closing option during his absence. The result thins out the Chicago bullpen a bit and may afford an extra plate appearance or two in a high leverage situation against a lesser to the middle of the Miami lineup, something players should at least be aware of.
As reported by: Carrie Muskat Other tagged players: Carl Edwards Jeff Samardzija along with Houston and Atlanta bats projected to be most popular tonight
With similar upside and a lower price tag, Jeff Samardzija is projected to be a bit more popular than Carlos Martinez in lineups tonight with everyone else fairly well spread out a bit below that. For hitters, Houston and Atlanta bats are over-whelming favorites, especially on FanDuel, though the weather in Atlanta could move things even more in Houston’s direction. With J.A. Happ and Gio Gonzalez perhaps going over-owned tonight considering their underlying metrics, RH Oakland and Los Angeles bats project for potential low ownership opportunities tonight. Premium subscribers can find potential ownership rates for all players on the Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Carlos Martinez, J.A. Happ, Gio Gonzalez Atlanta remains a potential problem spot in the evening forecast
While the outlook may have actually improved from ORANGE/RED this morning to straight ORANGE in Kevin’s evening forecast, there still seems to be trouble brewing in Atlanta (vs Philadelphia) tonight. While only Vegas knows why the Braves have the highest projected run line on the slate, it wouldn’t seem too difficult to pivot from this game where it’s very unlikely anyone is interested in the pitchers. St Louis at Cincinnati is the only others spot to watch for any wet activity, though it’s not expected to impact the game. Winds conditions in from left-center in Wrigley (15 to 20 mph) seem a bit less extreme than this morning as well. Read the full report on the Weather page and be sure to follow Kevin on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page Khris Davis ($3.3K DK) has just a 61 wRC, .125 ISO vs LHP this year, but with a 54.2 Hard%
While the Oakland lineup is projected for just 3.95 runs tonight, there may be an opportunity in the middle of the Oakland lineup that many players are unaware of. While Khris “Barrel” Davis is someone that the majority of people are aware of as a legitimate power threat at this point (he’s tied for the league lead with 30 Barrels), his performance has suffered somewhat against LHP with just a 61 wRC+ and .125 ISO. That has his cost down to $3.3K on DraftKings, but his 54.2 Hard% against southpaws this year suggests better things ahead. One batter removed from him either way are Chad Pinder (103 wRC+, .211 ISO vs LHP career) in the two hole as a cheap, middle infield eligible bat ($2.7K DraftKings) and Ryon Healy (164 wRC+, .293 ISO vs LHP career) batting sixth. J.A. Happ is not a bad pitcher, but may not be fully healthy. He missed a month and a half with an elbow injury and returned to allow two HRs last week. His 13.1% Barrels/BBE this year is second worst on the slate.
Other tagged players: Chad Pinder, J.A. Happ, Ryon Healy Surprisingly, no Houston bats among the top six RotoGrinders Player Projection point totals tonight
The oddest thing on the slate may be seeing the Braves tied for the highest implied run line (5.1) with a Houston team that has been pummeling everyone and faces a struggling fly ball pitcher in a positive run environment tonight, but perhaps just as interestingly, you have to go seven players deep before finding a batter from either team at the top of the RotoGrinders Players Projections tonight. In fact, each of the top six batters are from different teams with Trea Turner (vs Hyun-Jin Ryu), Josh Donaldson (vs Sean Manaea) and Matt Carpenter (vs Asher Wojciechowski) projected for the most fantasy points overall tonight. This may signal that expensive Houston stacks may go over-owned, though we see the three core Houston bats (Jose Altuve, George Springer and Carlos Correa) rounding out the top 10 projected point totals. Players looking for a bargain have to be absolutely shocked to see the major league leader in Barrels (30) and one of only two above 25 at just $3.3K on DraftKings, as Khris Davis is against J.A. Happ. It’s not that Happ is a bad pitcher, but he has dealt with an elbow issue this season and his 13.1% Barrels/BBE sits only behind Ian Kennedy on tonight’s slate.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Josh Donaldson, Matt Carpenter, George Springer, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Khris Davis Three fly ball pitchers face bottom 10 offenses against fly ball pitchers this year
Four pitchers are on the mound tonight who may be considered fly ball oriented (< 40 GB% both the last two calendar years and this season). Nick Pivetta’s situation could be the most easily dismissed with just 19.1 IP, a higher GB rate in the minors and a concerning weather forecast. The Braves have the fourth worst sOPS+ (85) against fly ball pitchers though. Asher Wojciechowski has thrown only four major league innings over the last two years, but his 20% GB rate isn’t much lower than what he’s shown in the minors over that span. Perhaps it’s a bit more relevant to mention that the Cardinals are only 24th in sOPS+ (92) against fly ball pitchers with the second fewest HRs (18). Houston has a 120 sOPS+ against fly ball pitchers and their ranking behind the Yankees is actually a big step back as they are first in wRC+ on the road (128), vs RHP (123) and over the last week (177). Ian Kennedy’s 13.4% Barrels/BBE is worst on the board. The Cubs have had many struggles this year, prowess against fly ball pitchers among them (94 sOPS+ = 22nd). Is that partially due to early season cold weather and winds blowing in at Wrigley? Regardless, they must endure similar conditions tonight (20 to 30 mph in from left-center) against Dan Straily, who is coming off one of the best months of his career (20.2 K-BB), while his 86 mph aEV and 26.8% of BBEs above 95 mph off the bat are both lowest on the slate.
As reported by: Baseball-Reference GB/FB Team Splits Other tagged players: Nick Pivetta, Asher Wojciechowski, Ian Kennedy Lorenzo Cain has a 94.9 mph aEV against a pitcher allowing a HR every 13 batters this year
All six batters with more than 11 Statcast recorded BBEs against the pitcher they are facing tonight are Philadelphia Phillies against Bartolo Colon in a game that has an ominous weather forecast, while no batter even exceeds a 94 mph aEV and Freddy Galvis owning the single HR. While both Brian McCann and Carlos Beltran have two career HRs against Ian Kennedy both have a combined three Statcast recorded BBEs in the matchup and players have more than enough ammunition to support a Houston stack tonight. Kris Bryant has homered twice in seven PAs against Dan Straily as well, but has just an 89.9 mph aEV on six BBEs, while the wind is expected to be blasting in from left-center at Wrigley tonight (20 to 30 mph). Getting back to exit velocity (10 BBE min.), Lorenzo Cain appears to be the most interesting PvB play. He has a 94.9 mph aEV on 11 BBEs against Mike Fiers and has struck out just once in 13 PAs. This supports Fiers’ tendency to struggle more against RHBs (.384 wOBA, 36.8 Hard%, 39.9 GB% since last season). He’s averaging a HR allowed every 13 batters this year (18 total).
Other tagged players: Mike Fiers, Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann, Ian Kennedy, Dan Straily, Kris Bryant The Daily K Predictor gives Jeff Samardzija the top strikeout projection tonight (7.69)
Jeff Samardzija is only the second or third highest priced pitcher on either site, but the RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor gives him the top strikeout projection (7.69) tonight. He does have the highest strikeout rate on the board and the fourth best K-BB (24.6%) in baseball. A 27.7 LD% appears to be driving a .340 BABIP despite just a 6.1 Hard-Soft% and 86.3 mph aEV. His 22.7 Soft% is 10th highest in the majors. The Brewers like to strike out (27.2% at home, 24.9% vs RHP, 32.7% over the last week) and hit HRs (19.0 HR/FB at home, 18.3 HR/FB vs RHP). Against power pitchers (Baseball-Reference), they’ve struck out 200 times in 632 PAs (most in the majors), but also hit 24 HRs (most in the majors). Sean Manaea has struck out 17 of his last 49 batters overall, going seven innings in each of his last two starts. Though he faces some drawbacks in facing a predominantly RH and healthier Toronto lineup, his peripherals have been excellent against RHBs (20.1 K-BB%) and his 5.0% Barrels/BBE overall is the lowest on the board, while he’s the cheapest pitcher in this group at less than $8K on either site. Dan Straily struck out five or fewer in seven of his first eight starts, but has struck out 24 of his last 77 batters now and has a SwStr above 11% in each of his last five starts. Just as importantly, he’s cut his walks enough to give him a 20.2 K-BB% over his last five starts. With the wind blowing in from left-center at over 20 mph at Wrigley tonight, his matchup against the Cubs (87 wRC+ vs RHP) could be upgraded tonight. Addtionally, his 86 mph aEV is tied for lowest on the slate, while his 26.8% of batted balls below 95 mph is the only mark below 30% on the board. All three of these pitchers are potentially high upside alternative for those not wishing to pay up for the most expensive pitcher with the top overall projection (via RotoGrinders Player Projections), Carlos Martinez.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Dan Straily, Sean Manaea, Carlos Martinez George Springer has a 322 wRC+ with five HRs over the last week, facing a pitcher with a 13.4% Barrels/BBE
Russell Martin (359 wRC+, 66.7 Hard%, two HRs) is one of just two hitters on the slate with a wRC+ above 300 over the last week and faces a pitcher (Sean Manaea) who has struggled with contact against RHBs (46.7 GB%, 37.8 Hard%), but has greatly improved his peripherals against them (20.1 K-BB%) and transitions to a much less friendly environment for hitters in Oakland. Perhaps the hottest hitter in the league over the last week is George Springer though (322 wRC+, 31.8 Hard%, five HRs). Kansas City isn’t a power friendly environment, but it is the most run friendly one on the slate and Ian Kennedy is a pronounced fly ball pitcher who’s missing many fewer bats this season with a 90.7 mph aEV and 13.4% Barrels/BBE that are both highest on the slate. He’s allowed at least one HR in six straight starts.
Other tagged players: Russell Martin, Sean Manaea, Ian Kennedy Gio Gonzalez is set for regression (86.8 LOB%) and takes on an improved Dodger lineup vs LHP (102 wRC+)
Gio Gonzalez has a 3.03 ERA almost completely predicated on his ability to strand runners (86.8%) this year and as most players know, that’s not much of a sustainable ability. He has the lowest K-BB rate of his career (8.6%) and is already more than half way to a career high in HRs with 10 already. The Dodgers have made great strides in their quest to improve against LHP this year, picking up some lefty-mashing bats in the off season. That’s worked out nicely so far, as they’ve improved to a 102 wRC+, 10 BB% and 18.7 Hard-Soft% against LHP. The pitcher’s low ERA in a negative run environment contributes to just a middling run expectation of 4.26 out of Vegas tonight, but with regression likely imminent, the Dodgers make for an affordably dangerous stack. Chris Taylor (210 wRC+, .267 ISO), Logan Forsythe (222 wRC+, .200 ISO), Austin Barnes (135 wRC+, .303 ISO), Cody Bellinger (148 wRC+, .333 ISO), Franklin Gutierrez (127 wRC+, .222 ISO), Kike Hernandez (163 wRC+, .354 ISO) and Corey Seager (117 wRC+, .206 ISO) have all been potent against southpaws this year and while there are some extremely small samples in there, some of those guys have a longer history of dominating LHP.
Other tagged players: Chris Taylor, Austin Barnes, Cody Bellinger, Franklin Gutierrez, Enrique Hernandez, Corey Seager Reds are tied for the fifth highest implied run line against the highest priced pitcher tonight
Carlos Martinez has overcome some early season troubles and has now pitched into the eighth inning in three straight starts with seven or more strikeouts in four of five starts. Though he’ll still walk a batter on occasion, his 17.8 K-BB% is a career high, though so is his 33.9 Hard%. However, he does seem to staying off barrels with the second lowest mark per BBE (5.3%) on the board today. While the Cincinnati offense has been surprisingly proficient this year (105 wRC+ at home, 104 wRC+ vs RHP), they’ve struck out in 26.5% of their plate appearances over the last week. Additionally, they have a 115 sOPS+ (fifth best) against ground ball pitchers and also tied for the fifth highest implied run line (4.4) tonight against the highest priced pitcher on the board. Martinez’s $12.5K cost on DraftKings is bordering on the absurd, but still may be enough to take him out of consideration on a seven game slate. Add that the Reds replace Scott Schebler with Scooter Gennett (93 wRC+, .158 ISO vs RHP since 2016) and RHBs have just a .245 wOBA and 57.1 GB% since last season and it’s either Joey Votto (163 wRC+, .253 ISO vs RHP since 2016) or bust from the offensive side here.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett