DFS Alerts
Mark Canha scratched Sunday, Khris Davis replaces and will bat fourth
Canha has officially been scratched from the Oakland Athletics lineup for today’s game against the Washington Nationals due to an illness. He will be replaced in the lineup by Khris Davis, who will take over in the outfield and bat fourth. This lineup change will slide Yonder Alonso, Ryon Healy, Stephen Vogt, and Trevor Plouffe each down one spot in the order to fifth, sixth, seventh, and eight respectively.
Other tagged players: Khris Davis
Risk increased in both PIT-NYM and CLE-KC games in latest MLB weather forecast
After his initial update to Sunday’s MLB weather forecast, Kevin Roth felt the need to increase his risk assessment on both the matchups between Pittsburgh Pirates and New York Mets at Citi Field and Cleveland Indians and Kansas City Royals at Kauffman Stadium respectively. The Pirates-Mets game has been downgraded to ORANGE, while the Indians-Royals game has been downgraded to YELLOW-ORANGE. Obviously, the game in New York has the highest chance of postponement, which makes hitters and starting pitchers alike extremely risky. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page David Holmberg owns an absurdly-low career 0.3% K-BB%
David Holmberg is set to make his second start of the year in today’s road matchup against the Detroit Tigers following an outing against the Boston Red Sox in which he allowed three earned runs in just four innings of work. Since 2013, Holmberg has pitched just 76 career innings at the Major League level and has not seen great success, evidenced by his 5.63 SIERA, 11.9% strikeout rate, and 11.6% walk rate. He typically hasn’t struggled that much with free passes in the Minors, but the low strikeout rate appears more real than not, as he has never been a strikeout pitcher at baseball’s lower levels. Holmberg has also lacked the ability to control batted balls in any way, making him a low strikeout pitcher with questionable control that is unable to influence groundballs or fly balls one way or another. As a left-handed pitcher, he also draws the unenvious task of facing a Tigers lineup that will roll out nine right-handed hitters Sunday afternoon. J.D. Martinez (154 wRC+, .398 wOBA, .269 ISO vs LHP since 2016) and Miguel Cabrera (151 wRC+, .396 wOBA, .199 ISO vs LHP since 2016) are both elite plays on Sunday’s main slate and the top Tigers bats to target in all formats. Nick Castellanos (.205 ISO vs LHP since 2016) and Justin Upton (.191 ISO vs LHP since 2016) both possess decent power upside versus left-handed pitching, while salary-saving options like John Hicks (157 wRC+, .403 wOBA, .421 ISO in 20 PA vs LHP), Mikie Mahtook (.200 ISO vs LHP), and Dixon Machado can also be considered to round out a Tigers stack in tournaments.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Miguel Cabrera, Nick Castellanos, Justin Upton, John Hicks, Mikie Mahtook, David Holmberg Several games with rain concerns to monitor in Sunday's MLB weather forecast
There are several games littered through Sunday’s MLB weather forecast with rain concerns that will need to be monitored throughout the afternoon. The game with the highest weather risk comes to us in the matchup between the Pittsburgh Pirates and New York Mets at Citi Field, where Kevin Roth currently has the game graded as ORANGE/YELLOW, meaning that a rain delay is likely and he cannot entirely rule out the possibility of a postponement. This adds risk to all players in this contest, as is the case anytime a postponement is a possibility. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page Chris Sale still had a 2.03 xFIP and 33.3% K% in his last start, despite allowing 5 ER
Chris Sale is coming off of his first truly poor start of the 2017 campaign, allowing five earned runs in just five innings pitched against the Chicago White Sox. Hopefully, his last two subpar outings will deter people from rostering him at his high price tag this afternoon, as he is still miles ahead of any other starting pitcher available on Sunday’s main slate. Sale was actually extremely unlucky in his last start, falling victim to a .600 BABIP despite allowing just an average 31.3% hard hit rate and punching out nine White Sox in just five innings. Sale still leads the Majors by a wide margin with a 36.4% strikeout rate and owns a 15.8% swinging strike rate, which also ranks as the best in the entire league. It’s entirely possible that he may surrender some runs today in a matchup with a capable Baltimore Orioles lineup, but his run prevention skills are not the reason we are paying up for Sale, it’s his extremely high floor and massive ceiling due to his elite strikeout ability. Making Sale’s upside even more appealing, is the fact that he is facing an Orioles squad that currently has the fifth-highest strikeout rate against left-handed pitching in Major League Baseball, which is a trend they have had for more than a full season now despite having a primarily right-handed lineup. Clearly, in cash games, Sale is virtually a must play in any format, and while you can make the case for a fade in tournaments, he still has the highest probability of ending the day as the top scoring starting pitcher on the slate. Taking the points and differentiating our tournament lineups elsewhere seems to be the logical, and likely the optimal, route to take this afternoon.
As reported by: FanGraphs Josh Rutledge scratched from Red Sox lineup Saturday; Deven Marrero replaces and will bat ninth
Rutledge has officially been scratched from the Boston Red Sox lineup for tonight’s game against the Baltimore Orioles due to an unspecified reason. He will be replaced in the lineup by Deven Marrero, who will bat ninth and play second base. Marrero will slot right into Rutledge’s spot in the order, the remainder of the Red Sox batting remains unchanged.
As reported by: Mike Silverman Other tagged players: Deven Marrero YELLOW in HOU-TEX game the only weather concern in Saturday night forecast
The only game with a potential rain delay comes to us in the matchup between the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers at Globe Life Park. However, the delay probability does remain low, as Kevin Roth currently has the risk graded as YELLOW and believes that most of the rain will steer clear of the stadium. Based on this evaluation, both pitchers and hitters are still in play, though it is important to keep in mind the risk associated with starting pitchers should a mid-game delay occur, albeit a small chance. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page Andrew Cashner has a 6.31 xFIP and -4.9% K-BB% versus LHB this season
Andrew Cashner comes into tonight’s game against the Houston Astros in search of his sixth quality start in his last eight outings, which is absurd to think about given his horrific 6.02 SIERA on the season. The main attributes to the high SIERA are a low 10.7% strikeout rate and high 12.5% walk rate, which combine to make a terrible formula for him to be able to maintain anywhere near his current 2.92 ERA that is mostly driven by a low BABIP and his ability to limit hard contact to the tune of a 29.3% rate. It’s obvious that Cashner’s luck is due to run out at any time now, but after looking deeper at his splits, it’s an even greater guarantee that his success against left-handed hitters will not continue. He still has the low strikeouts, high line drive (20.3% LD%) and fly ball rates (43.0% FB%), and just a .224 BABIP that has yet to correct itself. All of these aforementioned statistics do not equate to long-term success for any pitcher, let alone one of Cashner’s caliber. Considering his tremendous streak of luck, this is an extremely tough matchup to break down, but we need to continue trusting in the numbers which make Marwin Gonzalez (197 wRC+, .458 wOBA, .374 ISO vs RHP), Josh Reddick (116 wRC+, .341 wOBA, .197 ISO vs RHP), Carlos Beltran (.199 ISO vs RHP), and even Brian McCann, despite his struggles, the main Astros hitters to focus exposure. The trickier side of this matchup is the Houston right-handed bats since Cashner owns a 58.3% groundball rate and an average 30.6% hard hit rate, which are skills he’s exhibited in the past and may actually be sustainable for him going forward. Clearly, with Cashner’s overall track record he’s prone to a blow up at any time, but with the possibility of his success against righties continuing, it seems optimal to limit exposure to the Astros righties like Carlos Correa (161 wRC+, .406 wOBA, .257 ISO vs RHP) and Jose Altuve (143 wRC+, .379 wOBA vs RHP) to just tournaments on Saturday’s main slate.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Josh Reddick, Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann, Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, Andrew Cashner R.A. Dickey has just a 0.4% K-BB% this season, and a -5.5% K-BB% to LHB
R.A. Dickey continues to be an extremely hittable pitcher at this stage of his career, but he seems to just do enough to limit the damage that the Atlanta Braves are able to keep utilizing him as an innings eater for their young and eventually up and coming squad. This year, Dickey has seen a drastic drop in his already low strikeout rate, down to 11.1% to go along with 10.7% walk rate. As usual with his knuckleball, Dickey has managed to induce groundballs at a respectable clip (51.5%) and limit hard contact to just 28.5% of the time. With the aforementioned low strikeouts and high walks, it’s difficult to imagine Dickey’s 4.95 ERA improving with a 5.60 SIERA, and he has allowed a minimum of three runs in each of his last six starts. When attacking Dickey with opposing batters, a problem arises with a bit of guesswork in figuring out which individual batters to utilize against him, as the nature of a knuckleball makes at bat outcomes relatively unpredictable. This makes the Cincinnati Reds more of a stack or fade situation in tournaments since there should be plenty of baserunners with a high probability of home runs but difficult to predict where said production will come from. Joey Votto (142 wRC+, .392 wOBA, .250 ISO vs RHP), Adam Duvall (.259 ISO vs RHP), and Scott Schebler (.279 ISO vs RHP) are the established power hitters we would want to target in tournament stack, while Zack Cozart (153 wRC+, .408 wOBA, .226 ISO) and Eugenio Suarez (122 wRC+, .362 wOBA, .216 ISO) are also off to great starts against right-handed pitching and possess the ability to flash the power upside required in tournaments, making them viable members of a Reds stack as well.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Adam Duvall, Scott Schebler, Zack Cozart, Eugenio Suarez, R.A. Dickey No weather risk worse than YELLOW/GREEN in Saturday's early MLB slate forecast
It’s a rather worry-free afternoon across Major League Baseball in terms of rain and weather delays. Outside of a couple games that have a chance of an isolated or pop-up shower, Saturday’s afternoon weather forecast is virtually clear. The matchup between the St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs is our biggest “concern”, but Kevin Roth still has the game graded as YELLOW/GREEN, meaning a rain delay is possible but certainly far from likely. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page Jason Hammel owns a 4.3% HR/FB rate, despite a 49.5% FB% versus LHB
Jason Hammel continues to be a very hittable starting pitcher this season, allowing at least three earned runs in eight of his 10 starts on the year and further evidenced by his abysmal 6.18 ERA. Hammel has fallen victim to a high .341 BABIP, but even if his BABIP begins to neutralize, it’s difficult to imagine him performing much better than his current 5.11 SIERA with a subpar strikeout rate (16.7%), swinging strike rate (8.5%) and a high 9.6% walk rate. He has also never been a starting pitcher with significant splits throughout his career, and this season is no different, keeping all of the Cleveland Indians hitters in play this afternoon. On the year, Hammel has just 14.7% strikeout rate to right-handed batters and though he sees a slight uptick in strikeouts against left-handed batters, that also comes with a massive 49.5% fly ball rate. This means that this Indians lineup is fully stackable in tournaments, and we can look for power upside from Francisco Lindor (.248 ISO vs RHP), Jose Ramirez (.244 ISO vs RHP), Edwin Encarnacion (.224 ISO vs RHP), and Carlos Santana (.206 ISO vs RHP). Along with Lindor and Ramirez, Michael Brantley (139 wRC+, .378 wOBA, .175 ISO vs RHP) also possesses strong contact skills against right-handed pitching, elevating him to the status of a cash game option or a way to round out an Indians stack in large field tournaments.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Francisco Lindor, Edwin Encarnacion, Carlos Santana, Michael Brantley, Jason Hammel Francisco Cervelli scratched Friday, Elias Diaz to catch and bat eighth
Cervelli has officially been scratched from the Pittsburgh Pirates lineup for tonight’s game against the New York Mets due to an illness. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Elias Diaz, who will catch and bat eighth. This lineup change will also slide Jordy Mercer up to the seventh spot in the order. The remainder of the Pirates batting order for Friday’s contest will remain intact as initially confirmed.
As reported by: Bill Brink Other tagged players: Elias Diaz
Cheap bats available at all positions to help players pay up for pitching tonight
Players paying up for pitching are likely hunting for cheap bats, which makes Dixon Machado potentially the most popular player tonight, but there are several other spots where players can save tonight. Tyler Flowers is likely to be a popular Catcher, but John Hicks has shown well against fly ball pitchers in a small sample size and costs the same as Cameron Rupp ($2.7K DK, $2.2K FD), which is $500-$900 cheaper than Flowers tonight. At First Base, Adrian Gonzalez hasn’t hit this year, but both he and Matt Adams are well under $3K on FanDuel. Chase Utley is one of the hottest hitters in the league (282 wRC+ over the last week) and is a reasonable pivot from Machado for just a few hundred more. Players can consider Nick Castellanos or Luis Valbuena (vs Kyle Gibson) at right around $3K on DK and a few hundred less on FanDuel. Allen Cordoba (vs German Marquez) remains a very cheap SS atop the San Diego lineup. Kole Calhoun should be getting a lot of love in the Outfield where DraftKings has him priced just $2.6K ($100 more on FanDuel). The last thing to mention for those seeking salary relief is that the entire Milwaukee lineup costs less than $2K on FanDuel tonight. Kershaw has been a bit HR prone on occasion this year. For Strasburg enthusiasts, one Milwaukee OF bat like Keon Broxton leading off or Domingo Santana have a shot to pay dividends if they do anything and allow for more expensive choices elsewhere.
Other tagged players: Tyler Flowers, Cameron Rupp, John Hicks, Adrian Gonzalez, Chase Utley, Dixon Machado, Nick Castellanos, Luis Valbuena, Kole Calhoun, Keon Broxton, Domingo Santana With pitching expensive, Dixon Machado may be the most popular bat on the slate
Clayton Kershaw is projected to be the most popular pitcher tonight, but with Stephen Strasburg in a great spot (Oakland 37.7 K% over the last week), he’s not the over-whelming chalk tonight. In fact, four pitchers are projected for at least 20% ownership on DraftKings with three above 10% on FanDuel. Some of that depends on the weather in Texas too as players may flock to Kershaw or Strasburg if that game gets cancelled. Considering the cost of pitching tonight,, players are expected to look for cheap bats with Dixon Machado topping the projected ownership board on either site, followed by a mostly affordable middle of the Atlanta lineup against Bronson Arroyo. While ownership is not projected to be very excessive on any single hitter, Chase Utley (113 wRC+, .259 ISO vs RHP, 282 wRC+ over the last week) could be a contrarian pivot off of Machado for not much more on FanDuel ($300 difference). He’s projected for around 5% of lineups on either site. Premium players can find potential ownership rates for all players on the Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Chase Utley, Clayton Kershaw, Stephen Strasburg Major concern remains for Houston @ Texas in evening weather forecast
Kevin has updated his forecast for this evening and remains concerned about the status of the Houston Texas game. He's calling for a likely late start and potential PPD with hazardous weather in the area. While it's not ideal to lose Keuchel and Darvish the matchup was not ideal for the latter at least in a run friendly environment and further good news is that there are still several other stud pitchers on the slate, while Kevin does not foresee issues in any other game tonight. Read the full report on the Weather page and be sure to follow him on Twitter (KevinRothWx) for further updates.