DFS Alerts
Ryan Zimmerman and Michael Taylor hit sliders well
They have a tough matchup with Clayton Kershaw today and the Nationals have the lowest projected run total (2.84). However, on a three-game slate it’s worth looking a little deeper to try and differentiate lineups in tournaments. Using our new PlateIQ tool (linked below), we can see that Kershaw throws a slider 33.42% of the time, well above the league average (15.06%). While the average batter accumulates 13.68% of their hits off sliders, Zimmerman and Taylor perform much better – sliders account for 21.33% and 34.21% of their hits, respectively. Kershaw loves throwing down and in against RHB, which also aligns well with Zimmerman’s strengths. 18.8% of his hits come from the lower middle (his most), where Kershaw throws 8.6% of his pitches (second-most), and 12.5% from the lower right (second-most) where Kershaw throws 10.1% of his pitches (his most). Taking a tournament shot on Zimmerman (.415 ISO, .498 wOBA, 40.0% Hard% vs. LHP this season) may be worth the risk considering his ownership is bound to be low. Taylor isn’t as appealing in the 8-spot, but he has solid stats against LHP this year – .161 ISO, .325 wOBA, 40.9% Hard%. Be sure to check out our PlateIQ tool to see how the rest of the matchups look today.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: Michael A. Taylor
Paul Goldschmidt has two HRs and a 97.4 mph aEV against Luis Perdomo
Paul Goldschmidt is the only batter with more than one HR and a 92.5 mph aEV against the pitcher he is facing tonight. His two HRs against Luis Perdomo come in 11 PAs. He’s put the ball in play 10 times with a 97.4 mph aEV, adding a double. Considering that Goldschmidt only hits the ball in the air 31.2% of the time against RHP and Perdomo has a 68.3 GB% against RHP, the results are a bit of a surprise and we might be expecting some hard ground balls in future matchups. Among batters with at least 10 Statcast recorded BBEs against tonight’s opponent, Nick Markakis has a 95.7 mph aEV (12 BBEs) against Jared Eickhoff, but not a single extra-base hit in 19 PAs. Brett Gardner has a 93.7 mph aEV (15 BBEs) against Rick Porcello with a HR and four extra-base hits in 41 PAs.
As reported by: Statcast Matchups Other tagged players: Luis Perez, Nick Markakis, Jerad Eickhoff, Brett Gardner, Rick Porcello
Yu Darvish has the toughest matchup of the three $10K pitchers tonight
There are three $10K pitchers on tonight’s slate: Dallas Keuchel, Zack Greinke, and Yu Darvish. While Darvish is the most talented, there’s a case to be made for fading him tonight. Keuchel has the best matchup against a Kansas City offense with a 68 wRC+ vs LHP. With just an 8.9 HR/FB at home and 9.0 HR/FB vs LHP, they’re an undisciplined offense that is more apt to chase his offerings below the zone and pound them into the ground. He has a 24.4 K%, 67.4 GB% and -9.8 Hard-Soft% with 69.6% of the batters he has faced this year either striking out or hitting it on the ground. By the way, Luis Perdomo is a (very) poor man’s version of Keuchel with 66.5% of batters faced either striking out or pounding it into the ground as well if you’re looking for a cheap SP2. Zack Greinke may have a bit more risk in Arizona and the Padres have a slightly better 81 wRC+ against RHP, but that comes with a 25.8 K%. Greinke has a 34 K% and 17 SwStr% over the last month and has struck out at least eight in six of his last eight starts. Yu Darvish is still very good, but his 15.9 K-BB% is nearly five points below his career rate, while his 3.13 ERA is predicated on accareer best .259 BABIP and 84.6 LOB%. He’s also facing a potent Mets lineup with just a 9.6 K-BB% vs RHP and 17.2 HR/FB on the road in a difficult park. He may still very well one of the top three arms on the slate tonight, but there’s a good enough argument to be made that the other two might be better plays tonight. The Daily K Predictor orders them Greinke (7.52), Keuchel (6.58), then Darvish (6.38) tonight with quality of contact for Keuchel making the overall spread likely wider than that as the RotoGrinders Player Projections flip flops Keuchel and Greinke with Darvish remaining third.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Dallas Keuchel, Zack Greinke Risk decreased to YELLOW for CLE-COL game - Roth: "overall concern is low"
It’s currently dry in Denver and the storms may not make it to the stadium this afternoon. Kevin Roth has decreased the risk to YELLOW as it looks like this one will play without too much trouble. The primary concern is rain later in the game, but it seems like it should only cause a delay at worst.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Five Outfielders have a wRC+ above 300 over the last week.
There are five batters on the 12 game night slate with a wRC+ above 300 over the last week (10 PA min.), all of them Outfielders. Cole Calhoun (361 wRC+, 35.3 Hard%, four HRs) and George Springer (324 wRC+, .28 Hard%, five HRs) top the list and combine for nine HRs, but they are also the only two with a hard hit rate below 50%. Calhoun faces Buck Farmer, who struck out 11 in his only major league start this season and has a 17.3 K-BB% at AAA. Springer faces the left-handed Jason Vargas in Kansas City. He has punished LHP since last season (172 wRC+, .320 ISO). Odubel Herrera (312 wRC+, 50 Hard%, two HRs) faces Mike Foltynewicz (LHBs .337 wOBA since last season). Nelson Cruz (307 wRC+, 53.9 Hard%, two HRs) gets his second straight LHP (Adalberto Mejia – RHBs .356 wOBA). Justin Upton (303 wRC+, 56.3 Hard%, two HR) has quietly put up a 128 wRC+ and .256 ISO vs RHP this year. He faces Alex Meyer tonight.
Other tagged players: George Springer, Odubel Herrera, Nelson Cruz, Justin Upton Trevor Bauer has allowed a 37.8% Hard% to LHB over the last two seasons
That’s the highest mark among pitchers on the early slate who have faced at least 150 batters. His .490 wOBA+ISO is also the worst among that group while his xFIP is the second-highest (3.87) and his 39.5% GB% is the second-lowest. This season alone, his wOBA+ISO soared to .647 while his Hard% is up to 41.8%, and GB% is down to 38.2%. Colorado will deploy just two lefties against him today in Charlie Blackmon (.306 ISO, .430 wOBA, 39.1% Hard%, 44.8% FB% v. RHP this season) and Carlos Gonzalez (.156 ISO, .314 wOBA, 27.6% Hard%, 38.8% FB%) and both will be chalky options (for good reason). Bauer has posted a slightly better wOBA+ISO to RHB over the last two seasons (.477), but that figure is up to .507 this season through 146 batters faced. He’s also allowing a 38.0% Hard%, and 1.11 HR/9, although his GB% is much higher at 49.4% and his xFIP is the best on the early slate (2.46). While this level of hard contact has played a factor in his high .387 BABIP, it seems that he’s been getting a little unlucky against righties so far. Even so, Reynolds (.304 ISO, 34.6% Hard%) and Arenado (.201, 35.3% Hard%) have been making plenty of hard contact this year and seem to be in solid spots. However, Bauer has struck out RHB at a 34.5% clip and Reynolds has a high K% of 25.3%, which is definitely concerning. Arenado has a more favorable strikeout rate of 17.4%. Agaisnt LHB, Bauer’s rate drops to 22.1%, which isn’t terribly intimidating for Blackmon (22.3% K%) and Gonzalez (17.8% K%). Colorado currently has the second-highest total on the slate (5.4 runs).
Jharel Cotton's 44.8% FB% this season is the highest among pitchers on the early slate
The early slate features three games – in one, both teams have projected run totals above 5.4 runs and in another, both totals are lower than 3.7. It’s pretty clear where the chalk will be this afternoon and differentiating will be tough. If we look to the third game between Toronto and Oakland we see a favorable spot for the Blue Jays, who will face Jharel Cotton today and may be in line for a better day than Vegas expects (4.3 total). Although Cotton has a 20.2% K% and a 10.1% SwStr%, those metrics are fifth and fourth, respectively, out of six pitchers. Plus, according to our new PlateIQ tool (link below), the projected Blue Jays lineup has a low 18.8% K% against RHP. Through 49.1 innings pitched and 218 total batters faced, Cotton has a 4.79 SIERA, a very friendly 44.8% FB%, and a 34.7% Hard%, although he’s also limited batters to a 21.8% Soft%. His soft contact rate soars to 38.1% when facing left-handed batters – he’s pitched to 98 of them this year – which is a 19.2% improvement over his 2016 performance (52 total batters faced). LHB are making hard contact 22.2% of the time, a 7.5% drop from last season. Although those numbers are impressive, they seem pretty lofty for him to sustain. On the negative side, he’s allowed a 47.4% FB% over the past two years and his 5.39 xFIP is the highest on the slate. Although is xFIP is lower against RHB (4.79), he’s allowing a 44.1% Hard% this season through 120 batters faced and a 9.5% Soft% while posting a FB% of 41.0%. Righties have combined for a .353 wOBA this season, although that number drops to .322 when combined with his 2016 numbers (180 total batters). Due to the high fly ball rate he’s exhibited in both seasons (52.1% in 2016), his ISO figures are similar – .183 in 2016 and .198 in 2017. The latter figure is the highest on the slate against RHB. Although Toronto doesn’t have many big fly ball hitters against RHP – Bautista (46.4%) and Smoak (40.0%) are the only guys to hit 40% this year – they have four guys with ISOs above .200 – Bautista (.218, 33.6% Hard%), Smoak (.273, 39.1% Hard%), Donaldson (.368, 30.0% Hard%), Morales (.231 ISO, 37.2% Hard%). Historically, the Coliseum has poor ratings across the board for hitters, but according to ESPN, it ranks sixth in its “Runs” metric (1.162) which normalizes at 1.0; anything above one signifies a hitter’s ballpark. It’s seventh in home runs (1.16) and hits (1.103), fifth in doubles (1.229), and third in triples (3.73). Toronto is an interesting spot to stack and should come with lower ownership in GPPs than the chalky Indians and Rockies.
As reported by: RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales, Josh Donaldson Indians-Rockies game (YELLOW/ORANGE) the only trouble spot on early slate
Kevin Roth is expecting some scattered storms in Denver this afternoon, which may cause a delay but he isn’t overly concerned. It’s the warmest game of the three on the afternoon slate, with temperatures expected to be around 79 degrees at first pitch. It’s expected to be 66 degrees in Oakland, although we’re also anticipating winds between 10-15 mph blowing out to right-center and humidity in the upper-50s. The main slate looks pretty clear. There will be some typical isolated pop-ups in Atlanta for the Phillies-Braves matchup, but it’s only considered YELLOW. Down in Arlinton, afternoon storms should clear up prior to the game; it’s considered YELLOW/GREEN. On the positive side, it’s expected to be 84 degrees with humidity crossing 60% over the course of the night for the Mets-Rangers tilt. As of now, there aren’t any other concerns. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page and don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Jorge Polanco scratched from Twins lineup; Ehire Adrianza replaces and bats eighth
Polanco has officially been scratched from the Minnesota Twins lineup for tonight’s game against the Seattle Mariners due to a death in his family. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Ehire Adrianza, who will now play shortstop and bat eighth. Eduardo Escobar will also leapfrog up to the six-hole after previously being slotted in at the eighth spot in the Twins original lineup.
As reported by: Bob Dutton Other tagged players: Ehire Adrianza
Eric Sogard, Chase D'arnaud, Gregor Blanco and Jon Jay among several cheap leadoff bats
Several lineups offer top of the lineup salary savors tonight. Eric Sogard (202 wRC+, .152 ISO vs RHP) is hitting over his head right now, but leads off at SS for $3.3K or less for an offense projected for 4.7 runs tonight against Matt Cain (LHBs .366 wOBA since last season) in Milwaukee. Alex Avila ($3.4K or less) bats second against Jesse Chavez. Chase D’arnaud is another SS eligible bat. He has a tougher matchup against Robbie Ray, but the contact that is made against him is often hard hit and D’arnaud costs just $100 above the minimum on FanDuel ($2.9K on DK). On the other side of that matchup, Gregor Blanco ($3.2K or less) leads off for the home team against Dinelson Lamet. Lastly, Jon Jay ($2.1K on FanDuel) leads off from the Cubs against lefty Jeff Locke tonight.
Other tagged players: Alex Avila, Chase d'Arnaud, Gregor Blanco, Jon Jay Ownership expected to be well spread out on a slate with lots of high upside arms and offenses
Tonight’s slate appears to be well spread out ownership wise. Only 11 of 30 pitchers have a strikeout rate below 20%, while eight teams have implied run lines of 4.8 or better. Considering the circumstances, not a single batter is projected to be in more than 20% of lineups on either site. The same can be said of pitchers on FanDuel where it doesn’t appear players should concern themselves with fading anyone, though you may be able to get 30% strikeout arms at 10% or less popularity. Chris Archer and James Paxton are both projected to cross the 20% mark on DraftKings, not a surprise considering Paxton’s affordability, though players may want to consider he was held below 80 pitches in his first start back from injury. Regardless, he’s a $9K arm pitching like a $10K+ pitcher and may still offer value at a reduced workload, part of which is the ability he affords players to include higher cost bats. Projected Ownership rates are updated up until first pitch and are available to premium subscribers for all players.
As reported by: Projected Ownership Other tagged players: James Paxton YELLOW/ORANGE in CLE-COL game highlights Tuesday's MLB weather forecast
It’s a relatively average night across Major League Baseball in terms of rain and weather risks, as none of the games look to have any serious threat of postponement. The game with the highest risk grade comes to us in the matchup between the Cleveland Indians and Colorado Rockies at Coors Field with a YELLOW/ORANGE risk classification. This means that Kevin Roth feels that there is a strong chance of a rain delay in this one, though the chances of a postponement remain extremely low. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page Low temperatures and strong winds in several parks tonight.
We’re a weak into June and yet several parks call for temperatures in the low 60s (Angels & Tigers, Marlins Cubs, Blue Jays Athletics) with Yankee Stadium (vs the Red Sox) not even expected to be that warm. In addition, the Weather page forecasts winds of at least 10 mph in all of those spots as well, blowing in from left field at Yankee Stadium and Wrigley. Similar conditions in Chicago yesterday were unable to keep Kris Bryant in the yard and we wouldn’t expect the weather to factor against Aaron Judge either. Oakland may see a 13 mph wind out to center. They have some power in both lineups, while Marco Estrada has allowed eight HRs over his last six starts. If one single players is most positively affected by wind conditions tonight, perhaps it’s Alex Avila with the wind blowing out 10-15 mph to right-center according to Kevin’s early report. Avila already has been torching baseballs this year with his 58.2% of BBEs above a 95 mph aEV ranking fourth (30 BBE min.) and his 23.9% Barrels/BBE third among the same group of qualifiers. Tonight, he may get an extra boost against Jesse Chavez, who has allowed a .334 wOBA to LHBs this season.
Dodgers top offense against power pitchers (126 sOPS+), Padres last (70 sOPS+)
If you’re looking for a reason to fade Max Scherzer or support Robbie Ray, opposing offensive performance against power pitching may be able to influence your decision. Realistically, Scherzer is still the best pitcher on the slate, but the Dodgers have the top offense in the league against power pitching with a 126 sOPS+ (via Baseball-Reference). Their .426 SLG is also best with a 29.5 K%. The Padres are the worst offense against power pitching (70 sOPS+), which shouldn’t be a surprise as one of the worst overall offenses in the league. They’ve struck out in 33.1% of their plate appearances against power arms.
As reported by: Baseball-Reference Team Splits Other tagged players: Max Scherzer Lucas Duda, Matt Carpenter project as top values at the plate tonight
Although four of the top five or six projected point totals via the RotoGrinders Player Projections get to hit at Coors tonight (Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana, Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado), the rest of the top ten is scattered among several offenses with many teams projected for around five runs or more tonight. The problem is that there’s a lot of high priced, high upside pitching out there as well, so players are going to be looking to get their offense while saving some salary as well. On FanDuel, the projections call for the most value out of a $2.9K Lucas Duda (3.91 Pt/$/K), while Wilsson Contreras (3.87 Pt/$/K) and Matt Carpenter (3.72 Pt/$/K) also project for a good amount of value out of reasonable price tags. On DraftKings, the top point per dollar projections mostly call for sub-$3K bats without high point totals. We have to drop down to Matt Carpenter (2.36 Pt/$/K) and Carlos Gonzalez (2.35 Pt/$/K) before finding a batter projected for eight points or more for less than $4K. If looking to save on pitching, James Paxton may be the top value on either site for right around $9K, but players need to be aware that he may have a pitch limit below 100 in his second start back from injury. The projections like Chris Archer as the next best value out of the high cost pitchers.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana, Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, James Paxton, Chris Archer, Matt Carpenter