DFS Alerts
Despite recent short outings, Danny Salazar's 3.22 SIERA in 2017 is a career best
Danny Salazar has had trouble pitching deep into games to begin the 2017 campaign, though that is something that could be said about a majority of his career to this point, working into the seventh inning just once in six starts. However, Salazar has the ability to put up electric performances from time to time and is one of the few starting pitchers in the Majors with the ability to post double-digit strikeouts in just five or six innings pitched. This vaults him to the top the list for tournaments, as his 32.9% strikeout rate is tops on the slate, along with his lofty 16.6% swinging strike rate. He’s also doing a great job of limiting hard contact (28.1% HH%), so it’s just a matter of time before he puts everything together for a truly brilliant performance. Salazar draws the right matchup, as Toronto simply isn’t a good offense right now given injuries to key members of their lineup. The Blue Jays are currently ranked ninth-worst in strikeout rate (22.9% K%) versus right-handed pitching and are tied with the Kansas City Royals for the third-lowest wRC+ at 75, which is essentially 25% below average. With that said, Salazar is far from safe with a 10.7% walk rate and a history of control problems, but he has been fairly consistent this season with no more than four runs allowed in any starts and at least six strikeouts in every outing. This puts him in prime position to realistically end the night as the highest scoring pitcher on Wednesday’s slate and should come at a discounted ownership percentage in tournaments compared to Chris Archer, Yu Darvish, and possibly even Stephen Strasburg, making him an elite tournament option across the industry.
As reported by: FanGraphs
After MIN-CWS game PPD, very little rain concern remains in latest MLB weather forecast
The teams in Chicago made the weather situation for Wednesday tonight pretty straightforward, already announcing the postponement of the scheduled game between the Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox. It is imperative to remove these players from your lineups as they will not accrue fantasy points this evening. The only other game with even a hint of weather “risk” comes to us in Texas, where Kevin Roth currently has the matchup classified as GREEN/YELLOW, meaning he can’t fully rule out a delay from isolated pop-up showers but is still confident the game will play through with no issue. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page MIN-CHW postponed on Wednesday
Make sure not to select any players from this game!
J.T. Riddle scratched, Steve Lombardozzi to play 2nd and bat 7th; Dee Gordon shifting to SS
With Riddle scratched, Lombardozzi will now man the keystone while batting 7th in the order. The Marlins weren’t an intriguing team target to start with, and this doesn’t do anything to change that.
Other tagged players: Steve Lombardozzi Tom Koehler getting pounded by left-handed bats to start the season
While Koehler has shown some reverse-split tendencies throughout his career, he’s struggled mightily with LH bats this season, allowing six home runs and issuing ten walks in just 11.2 IP. Koehler is also having a lot of trouble keeping LH bats on the ground, as he owns just a 25.6 GB% against them so far this season. It doesn’t appear that he’s just been unlucky – he owns a .314 BABIP against LHBs with a putrid 29.3 Hd-Sft% – so pairing up a few of the Cardinals lefties seems like a nice pivot off of the more popular tournament targets of the night, namely the Brewers and Diamondbacks. Koehler hasn’t been above average against RH bats either – his control has been notably better, but he’s still giving up plenty of hard contact – so adding a few RHs into a Cardinals stack is certainly viable as well. Don’t expect the Cardinals to be popular, but they definitely have some tournament appeal. Matt Carpenter, Kolten Wong, Randal Grichuk and Jedd Gyorko are the top potential plays on the STL side.
Other tagged players: Matt Carpenter, Tom Koehler Eric Thames and Brewers have terrific matchup against Kyle Kendrick
Thames is currently our top projected bat on both FanDuel and DraftKings while Ryan Braun is third and fourth, respectively. Kendrick has a career 12.1% strikeout rate against lefties, .362 wOBA, and he’s allowed 1.3 HR/9. He didn’t pitch in the bigs in 2016, but back in 2015, he allowed 2.1 HR/9 overall when playing with Colorado. In his lone start this season, he gave up eight hits and six earned runs in four innings against Baltimore. Through 27 innings in AAA this year, he’s posted an ERA of 6.0 and allowed 2.33 HR/9. Thames has absolutely crushed righties this season with a .453 wOBA, .357 ISO, 47.6% hard contact rate, and eight homers in 84 at bats. Over the last two seasons, Braun has produced a .248 ISO, .379 wOBA, and 34.6% hard contact vs RHP (460 at bats). Following those two in the order is Travis Shaw (.197 ISO, .334 wOBA, 34.7% hard contact vs RHP over last two seasons). Milwaukee is projected to score 4.94 runs tonight, which is the fourth-highest on the main slate and makes a Brewers stack very appealing.
Red Sox bats likely to go overlooked in matchup against Chase Anderson
Chase Anderson has shown some significant improvement this season, especially in the strikeout department, evidenced by a 21.0% strikeout rate, but his low 2.86 ERA has been more a product of luck than anything else and is reflected in a significantly higher 4.20 SIERA on the year. Anderson has essentially been a neutral splits pitcher that allows slightly more power to right-handed batters throughout his career, but his batted ball profile and strikeout numbers are similar enough that it allows us to target hitters based on their overall skillset against right-handed pitching. The clear top options to target from Boston are Mookie Betts (158 wRC+, .405 wOBA, .224 ISO vs RHP) and Andrew Benintendi (161 wRC+, .408 wOBA, .208 ISO vs RHP) with their elite contact skills and on-base abilities combined with power upside. Meanwhile, Hanley Ramirez (129 wRC+, .364 wOBA, .198 ISO vs RHP) is more of a secondary one-off option better reserved for tournaments but does own a 43.2% hard hit rate versus right-handed pitching this season, reflecting his upside potential. Dustin Pedroia and Xander Bogaerts are fine options in their own right but make for better targets as a part of a stack than as one-offs given their lack of individual power. Jackie Bradley Jr. is off to a horrendous start in 2017 but could be an interesting way to differentiate a Red Sox stack in tournaments given the 120 wRC+, .356 wOBA, .238 ISO he has posted since the beginning of the 2016 season.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Projected Ownership Page Other tagged players: Andrew Benintendi, Hanley Ramirez, Jackie Bradley, Chase Anderson Chris Archer owns a 25.2% K-BB% at home this season
Chris Archer is set to take on the Kansas City Royals tonight coming off of a stellar performance against the Toronto Blue Jays his last time out, striking out 11 batters in just six innings pitched. Archer has seen mixed results in the strikeout department this season but has still flashed upside consistently, notching at least eight punch-outs in three of his seven starts. The current season numbers for Archer still remain less than impressive, however certainly on the upswing, evidenced by a 3.73 SIERA, 25.7% strikeout rate, and high 8.6% walk rate. On a positive note, there really isn’t anything in his advanced pitching data to support the dip in strikeout rate and increase in SIERA so it should only be a matter of time before Archer is the beneficiary of some positive regression towards the mean in those categories. One potential trouble spot is the dip in his groundball rate (37.2% GB%) from a career 46.2% rate that is correlated with a career-high 39.3% hard hit rate, though the sample size is still too minuscule to place too much stock in the hard contact issues. With the plethora of solid pitching options available on Wednesday’s slate, it’s entirely possible that Archer avoids astronomical ownership numbers, especially given his mediocre start to the 2017 campaign, but if we factor in historical data and performance, he still ranks near the top of the list at home against a Kansas City squad that lacks any real power against right-handed pitching. Add that to the fact that Archer has always been a more dominant pitcher at home throughout his career, which has held true once again, with a 32.0% strikeout rate at Tropicana Field opposed to just a 17.9% strikeout rate on the road, and he immediately becomes one of the top starting pitching options on the slate for all formats.
As reported by: FanGraphs Nationals lineup updated Werth batting second
Check the lineups page to see the updated lineup.
Cubs-Rockies game will be delayed Wednesday
It’s raining in Denver so the Rockies have decided to enter a weather delay. There isn’t a timetable for the game to start yet. As Kevin Roth mentioned in his forecast, the rain may get worse as the afternoon progresses so a postponement is possible.
As reported by: Colorado Rockies Addison Russell (shoulder) scratched Wednesday; Javy Baez will bat sixth and Albert Almora Jr. enters the lineup in the eighth spot
Get Russell out of your lineups; he’s dealing with some shoulder soreness and won’t be able to play today. Almora will now play center field and bat eighth. In 65 career at bats, he’s struggled against RHP, posting a .077 ISO and .288 wOBA.
As reported by: Chicago Cubs Other tagged players: Albert Almora Cubs-Rockies forecast showing increased risk, now orange/yellow in Roth's afternoon weather update
In Kevin Roth’s afternoon forecast, this game has been changed to “orange/yellow” due to scattered showers expected in Denver. Fortunately, he’s anticipating the rain will be lighter during the afternoon and heavier in the evening, so a delay wouldn’t be beneficial. As of now, it doesn’t look severe enough for a postponement, but it’s worth monitoring. Back in Chicago, the White Sox are hosting the Twins and some big storms are expected. Roth believes a delay is likely and he’s currently categorizing it under “orange.” Check out our weather page for complete details. Don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: Kevin Roth Freddie Freeman and Khris Davis two of the top hitting options for the early slate
Nelson Cruz and Taylor Motter would have been two bats to target against Zach Eflin and the Phillies but they are both sitting out today’s game which leads us to looking at Freddie Freeman and Khris Davis as two hitting options we want a lot of exposure too. Freeman has been out of this world this season and has a positive matchup against Joe Musgrove today. Musgrove has allowed 6 long balls in just 31 2/3 innings of work and Freeman enters today with a staggering .481 wOBA and .386 ISO against RH pitching. Looking at Chris Gimino’s Trend Spotting, we also see that Freeman has one of the top xOBA (expected on base average) of the slate at 8.21 and a top very well hit % (count of balls hit within high-value launch windows above 98 mph exit velocity) of 13.08%.
Khris Davis doesn’t hit for much average but when he does connect with the ball, he’s usually crushing it. He has a 52.5% Hard Hit percentage against RHP to go with a .368 wOBA and .322 ISO and is facing a RH pitcher in Jesse Chavez that has been vulnerable to the long ball this season allowing 4 homers in 17 2/3 innings of work to RH batters. Davis comes in with a 6.58 xOBA and 14.29 very well hit% putting him squarely in play along with Freeman as bats we want to get into our lineup as often as possible.
Seattle's lefty bats look to take advantage of Zach Eflin
Although Eflin doesn’t have a huge sample size in the bigs (15 starts), he’s been a favorable matchup for lefties so far. He’s allowed a flyball rate of 40.8%, hard contact rate of 35.9%, a K/9 of 3.8, HR/9 of 2.2, and so far this season, he’s allowing a 0.288 ISO to lefties. Seattle’s Ben Gamel, Kyle Seager, and Robinson Cano all look like interesting options in this matchup. Gamel has gotten off to a tremendous start this year, with a wOBA of .471 and ISO of .263 against right-handed pitchers while posting a hard contact rate of 41.4%. Over the last two seasons, Seager has posted a .380 wOBA, .219 ISO, and 39.7% hard contact rate against righties. His numbers have been down this year (.332 wOBA, .157 ISO, 34.3% hard contact), which could imply he’ll see some positive regression. Cano left yesterday’s ball game with a quad injury, but he’s in the lineup today. Over the last two seasons, he has a .394 wOBA, .267 ISO, and 38.1% hard contact rate against right-handers. After a 20.7% HR/FB rate last season, that number is up to 24.1% this year. These guys are batting 2-3-4 today and make for an interesting stack on the early slate if looking to add some bats outside of Coors.
Other tagged players: Kyle Seager, Robinson Cano Ian Kinsler scratched, Romine bats leadoff
Kinsler was originally set to return to the Tigers lineup tonight but has officially been scratched due to left hamstring tightness that has now forced him to miss four consecutive games. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Andrew Romine, who will play second base and slide directly into the leadoff spot, effectively allowing the remainder of the Tigers lineup to remain fully intact. This lineup change immediately vaults Romine into consideration for all formats as a salary-saving option given his low price tag across the industry.
As reported by: Detroit Tigers Other tagged players: Andrew Romine