DFS Alerts
Geovany Soto scratched Tuesday; Omar Narvaez to catch and bat 8th
There hasn’t been a reason given for the scratch at this point, but Omar Narvaez will replace Geovany Soto at catcher and in the batting order (8th). The White Sox remain a sneaky team target against Hector Santiago, who is due for some HR regression in the very near future, namely against right-handed bats.
As reported by: Dan Hayes Other tagged players: Geovany Soto
Clarifying Cubs Game 2 lineup: CHC will roll with Zobrist, Bryant, Rizzo, Candelario, Russell, Baez, Contreras, Lackey, Almora
Kyle Schwarber was initially listed as the leadoff hitter, but it’s actually Ben Zobrist who will hold that spot this evening. Check out the starting lineups page for all confirmed lineups!
As reported by: RotoGrinders Lineups Page Other tagged players: Kyle Schwarber Several cheap Catchers can help players get to more expensive pitching or bats
With Max Scherzer and another Coors game on the slate, player are bound to be looking for cheap bats somewhere and a good place to start is the Dodger lineup if Andrew Toles ($3K on DK) bats leadoff. Toles has a 123 wRC+, .189 ISO vs RHP and Ivan Nova, though off to a strong start, has shown a significant vulnerability to LHBs (.348 wOBA since 2015). With Catcher looking fairly weak behind Sanchez tonight, players might want to drop down in the order to find the red hot Sandy Leon (390 wRC+, 3 HRs over the last week) for $3.2K on DK, $2.7K on FD in a great spot in Milwaukee against Wily Peralta (LHBs .385 wOBA since 2015). Geovany Soto (133 wRC+, .245 ISO vs LHP since 2015) is another Catcher punt option for $2.5K or less on either site against the punishable Hector Santiago (RHBs 37.9 Hard% since 2015), though this may be the coldest game of the night with temperatures not expected to reach 50. Jason Castro (102 wRC+, .195 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is another cheap Catcher ($2.9K or less) on the other side of that matchup against Mike Pelfrey (LHBs .379 wOBA since 2015). Yonder Alonso has a 50% fly ball rate and five HRs over the last week. He and Matt Joyce (117 wRC+, .206 ISO vs RHP since 2016) are both sub-$3K bats on either site against rookie Alex Meyer. FanDuel players can add Joe Mauer (214 wRC+ last seven days), also with a higher fly ball rate this year (37.9%) for $2.6K, Brad Miller (114 wRC+, .234 ISO vs RHP since 2016) for $2.6K and Joc Pederson (142 wRC+, .265 ISO vs RHP since 2015) for $2.7K if looking to afford Scherzer.
Other tagged players: Jason Castro, Geovany Soto, Andrew Toles, Yonder Alonso, Matt Joyce, Joe Mauer, Brad Miller, Joc Pederson
Coors Field headlines trouble spots once again in Tuesday's latest MLB weather forecast
The only area of concern comes to us at Coors Field, where there is currently widespread rain showers moving into the area. Kevin Roth currently has the game between the Chicago Cubs and Colorado Rockies classified as ORANGE/YELLOW, meaning that a rain delay is likely at some point during the game and a postponement still can’t be entirely ruled out, though the overall outlook seems much more positive than Monday night. The good news is that Kevin still believes that the game is more likely to play through than not, so it still remains a good spot to attack with hitters in tournaments if willing to take on the risk. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page
Gary Sanchez is the only batter projected for ownership rates north of 20% tonight
While Coors bats rule the top of the Projected Ownership board on DraftKings, a $3.2K Gary Sanchez is the only batter projected to be in more than 20% of lineups on FanDuel. Top contrarian ratings go to Freddie Freeman, Paul Goldschmidt and Kyle Seager on either site, all projected for minimal ownership. Freeman (168 wRC+, .313 ISO vs RHP since 2016) is nearly matchup proof at this point, that’s not really the reason he’s projected to go under-owned tonight. Charlie Morton has the third highest ownership projection on the Pitcher side as the only arm below $8K with a strikeout rate above 25% on the slate. Many players could be on him in a nice run prevention spot against the Braves and may shy away from rostering Freeman for that reason. He’s still fine as a one off play, especially under these potential circumstances. Paul Goldschmidt faces Justin Verlander, who has held RHBs to a .279 wOBA since 2015, but the game does take place in Arizona, while Verlander has just a 7.6 SwStr% to go along with a 27.2 GB%. Kyle Seager (146 wRC+, .219 ISO vs RHP since 2016) moves up to cleanup in Philly against Jerad Eickhoff (LHBs .344 wOBA career) with no legitimate reason for him to be that unpopular. Max Scherzer and Carlos Carrasco are the only arms projected to be more popular than Morton. All three appear fine plays tonight, but Jeff Samardzija has his highest strikeout rate (28.6%) and second highest SwStr% (11.5) since being converted into a starter. He’s in a decent spot, transitioning from one pitcher’s park to another at a reasonable cost with minimal ownership projections. Premium subscribers can use the Projected Ownership page to help consider potential fades of popular players or identify potential contrarian plays tonight.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Freddie Freeman, Paul Goldschmidt, Kyle Seager, Charlie Morton, Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco, Jeff Samardzija Not a single outdoor park forecast above 65 degrees at first pitch tonight
Kevin’s early forecast called from potential issues in Colorado again, though potentially not as severe as last night. Conditions otherwise around the league should not be affected much by wind with the strongest being an 11 mph breeze out to center in Oakland. However, it’s another chilly night around the entire league. Coldest temperatures appear in Chicago, where the Twins and White Sox will play out the game in the 40s. Seems like the kind of night a certain RH slugger might want to serve out his suspension (Miguel Sano). In fact, we’re not looking at a single outdoor spot on the entire slate projected to be above 65 degrees at first pitch. There are five domed stadiums on the slate that may be more conducive to favorable offensive conditions, but Arizona, Milwaukee, and Toronto are the only positive run environments in that bunch. Pitching in those games will be Robbie Ray, Justin Verlander, Drew Pomeranz, and Carlos Carrasco. The Red Sox (vs Wily Peralta) and Indians (vs Mike Bolsinger) may be two of the better spots tonight considering conditions.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page Red-hot Yankees look to capitalize in matchup with RHP, Tim Adleman, and his 41.9% HH%
Tim Adleman has actually been a respectable starting pitcher so far this season, allowing more than two earned runs in just one start, but he still isn’t the type of pitcher we need to shy away from attacking with opposing hitters. This is especially true given his matchup with a New York Yankees squad that just continues to roll, leading the American League in runs scored, and are showing no signs of slowing down. To this point in his career, Adleman has been fly ball pitcher to left-handed batters (54.6% FB%) and owns essentially neutral splits to righties but is surrendering a lot more hard contact (40.4% HH%). He also looks to be a below-average strikeout pitcher (17.9% K%) that has exhibited some decent control (6.4% BB%), meaning that it should be expected for a lot of balls to be put into play this evening, especially with how hot the Yankees’ sticks have been in recent weeks. Aaron Judge (146 wRC+, .382 wOBA, .327 ISO vs RHP since 2016) is back in the lineup after receiving the night off yesterday, and he’ll join Gary Sanchez (177 wRC+, .432 wOBA, .311 ISO vs RHP since 2016) as the top overall options to target from this lineup in all formats. Brett Gardner (117 wRC+, .344 wOBA vs RHP since 2016) has added a bit of extra power to his game thus far in 2017, but it remains to be seen if he will be able to sustain that type of upside going forward, which relegates him to more of a secondary option along with Jacoby Ellsbury and Starlin Castro. The aforementioned trio is likely better utilized in a stack for tournaments, whereas, Judge and Sanchez possess enough upside on their own to be viable as both one-offs and core pieces to a Yankees stack in tournaments.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Gary Sanchez, Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, Starlin Castro, Tim Adleman Khris Davis has 17 total Barrels (23.3% Barrels/BBE) with 64.4% of contact above 95 mph
Ryan Zimmerman has snagged the lead in total Barrels from Aaron Judge (19 to 18). He also has a slight lead in Barrels/PA (15.6% to 15.4%), though Judge retains his lead with 25.7% Barrels/BBE. Manny Machado has the most batted balls above 95 mph (53). No other player has 50. Although not leading in any category, another name that shows up in the top five of many of them is Khris Davis, who is now third in total Barrels (17), fourth in Barrels/BBE (23.3%) and third with 64.4% of his batted balls over 95 mph. Consider that teammate Yonder Alonso now has 11 Barrels with 40% of his contact at 95 mph or better off the bat and players may have a nice one-two punch in that lineup or possibly a trio considering the low cost of Matt Joyce. They face Alex Meyer tonight. In just 35 major league innings, RHBs have a .341 wOBA (35.2 Hard%) against him, but LHBs have a .398 wOBA (31 Hard%).
As reported by: Baseball Savant Statcast Other tagged players: Yonder Alonso, Matt Joyce, Ryan Zimmerman, Aaron Judge, Manny Machado Bryce Harper projects as tonight's top bat ahead of Coors hitters via RotoGrinders Player Projections
There is a game scheduled for Coors tonight. Bryce Harper (169 wRC+, .289 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is not playing in it, but he is still the top bat via the RotoGrinders Player Projections tonight. Perhaps, he may as well be in Colorado, priced above $5K against Ubaldo Jimenez (LHBs .380 wOBA since 2015). While it’s very rare to see a non-Coors batter atop the projections on a Coors slate, we very quickly come back to reality with Kris Bryant (162 wRC+, .294 ISO vs LHP career) in the second spot. These two are projected are projected far and away as the top bats tonight, ahead of two Rockies’ bats (Arenado and Blackmon) just before Jose Altuve. The issue is that all of these bats are very expensive. The projections also see Derek Dietrich (124 wRC+, .177 ISO vs RHP since 2015) as the top value on FanDuel ($2.2K). He moves up to fifth in tonight’s lineup against Adam Wainwright (LHBs .369 wOBA since 2015). DraftKings projections see Conor Gillaspie ($2.4K against Zack Wheeler) and a pair of A’s (Matt Joyce $2.5K & Yonder Alonso $2.9K) as top point per dollar plays against Alex Meyer (LHBs .398 wOBA career). Joyce has a 117 wRC+ and .206 ISO vs RHP since last season and Alonso has spiked his fly ball rate (50%) and has five HRs over the last week.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Kris Bryant, Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, Jose Altuve, Conor Gillaspie, Matt Joyce, Yonder Alonso Adam Jones has homered three times against Max Scherzer (twice as a National)
There are two hitters who have homered three times against the pitcher they are facing today. Unfortunately, the first one is already under-way in a day game. The second is Adam Jones, who is facing Max Scherzer. Scherzer is prone to the long-ball with five allowed over his last three starts and though he’s been dominant against RHBs, he splits his HRs fairly evenly. However, Scherzer struggled through some of his early years in Detroit where some of these confrontations may have taken place. A quick look at some of the video provided by Baseball Savant does show that two of the HRs have occurred since Scherzer moved to the National League. Jones does have a 92.3 mph aEV on six Statcast recorded BBEs in the matchup and six extra-base hits total in 25 PAs. Unfortunately, there’s not a lot of useful BvP information on tonight’s slate. Kendrys Morales is the only batter who even reaches 10 BBEs against tonight’s opponent, but he does have a healthy 93.8 mph aEV against Carlos Carrasco, though he has struck out six times in 17 PAs. When you’re only relevant BvP information has you opposing the top pitchers, it might be best to look elsewhere tonight.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Matchups Other tagged players: Max Scherzer, Kendrys Morales, Carlos Carrasco Charlie Morton is the only pitcher costing less than $8K with better than a 25 K%.
Max Scherzer and Carlos Carrasco are the clear top pitchers on the slate according to tonight’s RotoGrinders Player Projections. Scherzer also tops the Daily K Predictor by more than a strikeout tonight. He’s run into some HR issues again (five over his last three) and is the highest priced pitcher on the slate in a tough park in Baltimore tonight, but that occasional long ball troubles really have no effect on his incredible strikeout upside. Carrasco drops behind a few more names on the Daily K Predictor, but should be a somewhat confident play against a struggling Toronto lineup that still leans predominantly right-handed (RHBs .277 wOBA against Carrasco since 2015). Robbie Ray (7.65), Drew Pomeranz (7.59), and Justin Verlander (7.25) follow Scherzer on the K Predictor tonight, though each are in higher risk spots, while the latter two may not have SwStr rates high enough to support their current K% (Pomeranz 9.2%, Verlander 7.6%). If players are looking for a low cost arm with strikeout upside, Charlie Morton may be your man. He’s struck out 20 of his last 51 batters with a 13.0 SwStr% over his last two starts (A’s & Rangers) and is the only pitcher costing less than $8K with a strikeout rate above 25% on today’s slate. He’s also in a quality run prevention spot at home against the Braves.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco, Robbie Ray, Drew Pomeranz, Justin Verlander Trio of Yankees (Gardner, Holliday, Judge) among the hottest bats on the slate
Sandy Leon is the hottest bat in the majors over the last week (390 wRC+, 66.7 Hard%, 3 HRs)(10 PA min.). If in the lineup, he’s an comfortable Catcher punt for $3.2K or less when there are few otherwise strong options behind the plate. The next four batters with a wRC+ exceeding 300 don’t often play against RHP (Marwin Gonzalez, Trey Mancini, Chris Young, Chris Taylor and Tommy Pham) and may not be in their team’s lineup tonight. Dipping just below 300 we find a trio of Yankees in Brett Gardner (285 wRC+, 45 Hard%, 4 HRs), Matt Holliday (280 wRC+, 35.7 Hard%, 2 HRs) and Aaron Judge (277 wRC+, 46.7 Hard%, 3 HRs). There are five offenses projected for more runs than the Yankees (4.56) tonight, though they take the top offense vs RHP (133 wRC+) into a power friendly park in Cincinnati against a power prone pitcher (Tim Adleman 18 HRs allowed in 91 MLB innings).
Other tagged players: Matt Holliday, Aaron Judge, Sandy Leon, Marwin Gonzalez, Trey Mancini, Chris Young, Chris Taylor, Tommy Pham Low cost Dodger LHBs could help players afford a Scherzer or Carrasco
We’re looking at another slate where Coors offenses are the only ones projected for more than five runs and the Astros coming in at just below against Bartolo Colon. On a 14 game slate it’s going to be easy enough to look elsewhere for bats tonight. Starting behind the plate, it might be difficult to fade Gary Sanchez (176 wRC+, .309 ISO vs RHP) against the HR prone Tim Adleman (RHBs .336 wOBA) for $3.2K on FD, but Sandy Leon has been hot over the last week (390 wRC+, 66.7 Hard%, 3 HRs) for much less on DraftKings. First base has several strong options, such as Cody Bellinger (200 wRC+, .471 ISO vs RHP) against Ivan Nova (LHBs .348 wOBA since 2015), Miguel Cabrera (156 wRC+, .210 ISO vs LHP since 2015) in Arizona (Robbie Ray RHBs .341 wOBA). Carlos Santana (127 wRC+, .239 ISO vs RHP since 2015) vs Mike Bollinger (LHBs .407 wOBA since 2015) and more. Kris Bryant (162 wRC+, .294 ISO vs LHP career) is going to be the tougheset fade, especially with Miguel Sano serving his suspension tonight. Corey Seager (158 wRC+, .221 ISO) against Nova and Brad Miller (118 wRC+, .215 ISO vs RHP since 2015) against Chris Young (LHBs .461 wOBA) make for strong SS plays. The OF offers Andrew Benintendi (155 wRC+, .224 ISO vs RHP) vs Wily Peralta (LHBs .385 wOBA), Joc Pederson (133 wRC+, .240 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Andrew Toles (123 wRC+, .189 ISO vs RHP) against Nova. In fact low cost LH Dodger bats are beginning to look like a potential contrarian stack tonight. Nova has been good this year, but has been HR prone in the past and the Dodgers have a 116 sOPS+ (Baseball-Reference) against ground ball pitchers. Paying down for potentially potent Dodger bats should allow players to grab one of the more expensive arms.
As reported by: Baseball Reference Team Splits Other tagged players: Andrew Toles, Corey Seager, Joc Pederson, Gary Sanchez, Sandy Leon, Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Santana, Kris Bryant, Brad Miller, Andrew Benintendi Alex Meyer a high-risk but cheap option at SP tonight that will allow you to load up on big bats
With four games having run totals of nine or higher including a Coors Field game, we’re going to want to be able to load up on bats tonight and one way we can do that, especially on DraftKings, is to play Alex Meyer as one of your SP’s. It won’t look pretty as Meyer has not performed well in his two starts thus far this season but at just $4,800 it’s a risk worth taking – especially when you consider his upside at that price tag.
Meyer was a top prospect at one time who has shown the ability to strike out batters in the minor leagues. He had a 27.3% K rate in AAA last season and nearly hit 25% in 25 innings with the major league squad. He’s been at or near 25% his entire minor league career. If he can find a way to get his walk issues under control, he has the potential to put up a big score relative to that cheap price tag – especially facing an Oakland team that has a 24.4% K rate against right-handed pitching. The risk is certainly there but a five or six inning, 5+ K game is also in the range of outcomes and that would more than pay off his price.
No shortage of quality inexpensive bats near top of lineup on Monday night
Players looking to play up for pitching or Coors bats should have plenty of cost saving opportunities elsewhere on this slate. Though not yet confirmed, Matt Joyce (121 wRC+, .210 ISO vs RHP since last season) may bat near the top of the Oakland lineup against Ricky Nolasco. He costs less than than $3K on either site, along with teammate Yonder Alonso (339 wRC+, 5 HRs last seven days) for $2.8K on DraftKings. Joey Rickard (127 wRC+, .162 ISO vs LHP career) bats leadoff against Gio Gonzalez for the minimum cost on Fanduel ($1K more on DraftKings). Andrew Toles (123 wRC+, .194 ISO vs RHP) meets that price tag on DraftKings against rookie Trevor Williams. Wilmer Flores (196 wRC+, .381 ISO vs LHP since last season) mashes lefties (Matt Moore) out of the cleanup spot tonight ($3.1K on DK, $2.3K on FD). Teammate T.J. Rivera bats second for less than $3K on either site. Tommy Pham bats further down in the order for the Cardinals, but brings players a 369 wRC+ over the last week for the minimum on FanDuel ($3K on DraftKings). Jordy Mercer (111 wRC+, .185 ISO since last season) may also now hit leadoff for less than $3K against replacement Alex Wood. Looking at below average leadoff bats on the cheap might bring you more towards Wilmer Difo ($3.1K DK, $2.3K FD) and Alcides Escobar ($3K DK, $2.2K FD).
Other tagged players: Matt Joyce, Yonder Alonso, Andrew Toles, Wilmer Flores, T.J. Rivera, Tommy Pham, Jordy Mercer, Wilmer Difo, Alcides Escobar