DFS Alerts
There may be plenty of cheap firepower Minnesota @ Chicago game
While there aren’t really many incredibly expensive arms tonight, the game in Coors likely dictates players are still going to need to save money somewhere. Players can probably consider Ezequiel Carrera a top punt option, batting second for the Blue Jays against Chase De Jong for exactly $2.7K on either site. De Jong has just a 10 K% and 50% fly ball rate through two starts. Ryan Rua is a league average bat against LHP that bats further down in the lineup, but in one of the more run friendly environments in Texas and at a cost of $3K on DraftKings, $2.5K on FanDuel. Chris Coghlan is another average bat against RHP, who is even cheaper ($2.5K on DK, $2K on FD). Matt Davidson (139 wRC+, .361 ISO vs RHP) bats sixth against Phil Hughes (RHBs .355 wOBA since 2015) for just $2.6K on FanDuel. The punt catcher may be Chris Gimenez tonight. He faces Derek Holland (RHBs .340 wOBA since 2015) for less than $3K on either site and has done the most with his opportunities against southpaws since 2015 (129 wRC+, .244 ISO). He can be paired with teammate Jorge Polanco (117 wRC+, .179 ISO vs LHP since 2015) for just a bit more on either site ($3.2 DK, $2.8 FD) at another difficult position. Matt Szczur (77 wRC+, .162 ISO vs LHP since 2015) bats second against Martin Perez (RHBs .339 wOBA since 2015) for just $2.3K on FanDuel. Conor Gillaspie (84 wRC+, .154 ISO vs RHP since last season) could be a min-priced bat or close to it in the middle of the San Francisco lineup against Bronson Arroyo. If Andrew Romine (77 wRC+ vs RHP since last season) leads off again against JC Ramirez, he’s not very good, but costs just $2.1K on DraftKings.
Other tagged players: Chris Gimenez, Matt Davidson, Ezequiel Carrera, Ryan Rua, Chris Coghlan, Matthew Szczur, Conor Gillaspie, Andrew Romine
Weather risk has decreased in the Baltimore @ Washington game from the morning forecast
Kevin has decreased the risk of rain from this morning in the Baltimore Washington game, calling it a straight YELLOW at this point. With the potential for a late start seeming the most likely issue, players from this game now appear safer than initially in the morning report. The only other game with minimal risk of delay may be San Diego Texas, while Kevin has added a 10 mph wind blowing out to right in Chicago (vs Minnesota) tonight. Read the full report on the Weather page and remember to follow Kevin on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates.
Jonathan Lucroy the only non-Coors bat projected above 20% ownership
Jonathan Lucroy is the only non-Coors bat projected to be in more than 20% of lineups tonight on FanDuel tonight, while none aside from that game are projected that high on DraftKings. Dodger bats may go through the roof with the pitching switch to the RH Hoffman. Lucroy is batting cleanup tonight against Clayton Richard, who “only” keeps RHB contact on the ground 58.4% of the time since 2015 with a .366 wOBA against them. Lucroy (109 wRC+, .248 ISO vs LHP since 2016) has just begun to pick up the pace, but has just a 7.1 Hard% to go with his 108 wRC+ over the last week. Miguel Cabrera (150 wRC+, .253 ISO vs RHP since 2016) has an outstanding Contrarian Rating (ContR) on FanDuel (10.84), as you have to consider his bat at a projected ownership rate of just 1%, even facing 2016 breakout reliever turned starter JC Ramirez (RHBs .326 wOBA, 33.6 Hard% since 2015. Michael Pineda is projected to be the most popular pitcher on the slate on either site. No other pitcher is expected to be in more than 25% of lineups on DK, 15% on FanDuel, despite the smaller slate. Hyun-Jin Ryu is projected at 1% on either site and Coors should no longer scare players away until the Rockies once again prove otherwise (80 wRC+ at home, 20.0 K-BB% vs LHP). Premium subscribers can see potential popularity for all players on the Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Miguel Cabrera, Michael Pineda, Hyun-Jin Ryu Robinson Cano (sore right quad) scratched from Mariners lineup
Cano has been scratched from the Seattle Mariners lineup for tonight’s game against the Toronto Blue Jays due to a sore right quad. Mike Freeman will replace Cano in the lineup at second base and bat seventh. With the lineup change, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager, Danny Valencia, and Taylor Motter all slide up on spot in the batting order and will hit third, fourth, fifth, and sixth respectively.
As reported by: Ryan Divish
Tyler Anderson scratched Thursday; Jeff Hoffman will start in his place
Anderson has been scratched from his start in tonight’s game against the Los Angeles Dodgers due to an unspecified reason. In his place, Jeff Hoffman will draw the start. The opportunity to face a right-handed pitcher is a huge upgrade for the Dodgers offense as a whole, as they have have been one of the worst teams in the Majors versus southpaws since the beginning of 2016, and it should be expected for their slate-leading 5.6 runs implied team total to continue to rise following the pitching change for Colorado.
As reported by: Jesse D. Thomas Other tagged players: Jeff Hoffman Texas is the only non-dome park projected to remain above 65 degrees.
Aside from the one game Kevin has identified as a weather risk earlier in the day (Baltimore @ Washington), the best non-dome hitting conditions appear to be in Texas tonight, which shouldn’t be a surprise. Though the wind shouldn’t play much of a factor, it’s the only outdoor park projected to remain above 65 degrees throughout the game, beating any other environment by at least 10 degrees. Despite Clayton Richard’s ground ball tendencies, both lefties in this game have allowed a wOBA above .330 to RHBs since 2015. Temperatures are not projected to reach even 60 in New York (vs Houston), Chicago (vs Minnesota), Washington (vs Baltimore) or San Francisco (vs Cincinnati). San Fancisco is the only park with expected wind conditions in excess of 10 mph and that’s blowing out to center (13 mph), potentially giving batters an additional boost against Bronson Arroyo, though that seems to be typical for that park.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page Manny Machado leads the majors with 55 batted balls above a 95 mph aEV
Ryan Zimmerman has a league leading 19 Barrels and though he’s slowed down a bit, he still brings a 140 wRC+, 47.6 Hard% over the last week against Dylan Bundy (RHBs .313 wOBA since 2015), who has limited damage, but only struck out 15.9% of batters faced this year. He’s cut down on his secondary offerings in favor of more fastballs in recent starts. Aaron Judge leads the league in Barrels/BBE (25%). He faces ground ball machine Dallas Keuchel (63 GB%), but he does have a 173 sOPS+ (Baseball-Refrence) with two HRs in 25 PAs against ground ball pitchers this season. Manny Machado leads the majors in contact with at least a 95 mph aEV. He’s hit 55 such batted balls, four more than the next highest batter. That might play well for him against extreme fly ball pitcher A.J. Cole tonight (48.2 FB% in 53.2 major league innings). As for the highest rate of batted balls above 95 mph, that’s Miguel Sano, who faces Derek Holland and his 38.2 overall Hard% tonight with a .340 wOBA allowed to RHBs since 2015.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Statcast Other tagged players: Ryan Zimmerman, Aaron Judge, Miguel Sano Several Giants present as potential top values per RotoGrinders Player Projections
Third Basemen in Colorado top the RotoGrinders Player Projections tonight with the San Diego First Baseman, Wil Myers (117 wRC+, .175 ISO vs LHP) sneaking into the third spot on FanDuel (12.36) in Texas against Martin Perez (RHBs .339 wOBA since 2015) before going back to Coors again. On DraftKings, sees both Brandon Belt (135 wRC+, .201 ISO vs RHP since 2015 vs human HR machine Bronso Arroyo) and Bryce Harper (169 wRC+, .288 ISO vs RHP since 2015 vs Dylan Bundy) crack the top five, though Nolan Arenado (113 wRC+, .250 ISO vs LHP since 2015 vs Hyun-Jin Ryu) is the only batter projected for more than 10 points. Belt (2.55 PT/$/K) also shows up as a potential top value for less than $4K on either site, along with teammates Joe Panik (2.33) and Buster Posey (2.32) on DK and Panik (3.75) with Hunter Pence (3.45) on FanDuel. Zack Greinke leads overall pitcher projections on either site, though value hunters may want to look at JC Ramirez (24.1 K%) for $7K or less on either site against a tough Detroit offense that does tend to strike out a bit (24.2% on the road, 22.5% vs RHP, 26.7% last seven days).
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Wil Myers, Bryce Harper, Nolan Arenado, Joe Panik, Buster Posey, Hunter Pence, Zack Greinke, J.C. Ramirez Yankees look to stay hot against the formidable Dallas Keuchel
New York has scored the second-most runs in baseball this season (180) but they’re facing Keuchel and his 1.88 ERA tonight. With Michael Pineda on the hill for the Yanks, Vegas has this game pegged as a pitcher’s duel. This one has an over/under of 7 runs and projected scores of 3.67 for New York and 3.33 for Houston, the two lowest on the board. However, the Bronx Bombers are stocked with high-powered righty bats that have been crushing left-handers. Gary Sanchez (.365 wOBA, .357 ISO, 46.0% hard contact), Matt Holliday (.371 wOBA, .299 ISO, 45.1% hard contact), Aaron Judge (.403 wOBA, .314 ISO, 47.4% hard contact), and Chris Carter (.345 wOBA, .297 ISO, 37.4% hard contact) have some great numbers that stick out. Importantly, three of those guys have career flyball rates above 45% – Judge (57.9%), Sanchez (45.9%), and Carter (48.3%). Holliday is closer to average (36.7%), although he’s posted a 42.9% rate this season. Having guys who can get the ball in the air is crucial in this spot considering Keuchel has an excellent 63.0% ground ball rate this year. Although Keuchel’s ERA is 1.88, his SIERA is 3.37; that’s still a solid number, but the difference could imply he’s due for some regression. Additionally, his .211 BABIP against righties will eventually regress towards .300. The Yankees bats listed above will likely come with suppressed ownership given then matchup but make for some interesting GPP options at home, where 1.24 HRs are batted out to left field per game. Carter, who’s only knocked one out of the park this season after clubbing 41 last year, is $1,500 cheaper on FanDuel ($2,100) than DraftKings ($3,600). Unfortunately, he’s been dropped to ninth tonight, but his price on FD and splits against LHP keeps him interesting for those willing to take the risk in tournaments – our HR predictor projects him at 5.38%, which ranks 17th.
Other tagged players: Matt Holliday, Chris Carter, Gary Sanchez
With several top pitchers in tough spots, Hyun-Jin Ryu tops tonight's Daily K Predictor at Coors
Hyun-Jin Ryu is pitching in Colorado tonight, but still owns the top spot on the RotoGrinders Daily K Predicotor (7.39). Most of the top pitchers are in poor spots with Dallas Keuchel and Michael Pineda facing each other and two of the top offenses in the league at Yankee Stadium. That’s not to say either is unplayable, especially Pineda with a 27.5 K-BB%, but it may spread out pitcher ownership tonight. Pineda is also second (6.87) on the K Predictor tonight. Back to Ryu ($6.5K DK, $5.5K FD), the Rockies have just an 80 wRC+ at home and 20.0 K-BB% vs LHP. Coors is no longer a spot to fear for opposing pitchers until proven otherwise. Another pitcher in a difficult park, but not against a strong offense is Zack Greinke, who has eschewed concerns about his velocity with an above average SwStr% in every start (26.3 K%) and hasn’t dipped below a 13 SwStr% in any of his last four starts. He is the top overall pitcher according to the RotoGrinders Player Projections
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Michael Pineda, Dallas Keuchel, Zack Greinke Pair of Astros (Springer & Correa) each have two HRs, 95+ mph aEV against Michael Pineda
Five batters have homered twice against the pitcher they are facing tonight. Two (Hunter Pence & Brandon Belt vs Bronson Arroyo) deal with such outdated information that Statcast has not recorded a single BBE for any of these matchups. Arroyo missed the previous two seasons, but don’t worry, he’s still giving up bombs (seven this year). A power suppressing park in San Francisco is the biggest concern, but no major league park can hold Arroyo when he’s on. Pence does only have five extra-base hits in 45 PAs against Arroyo and has just a .119 ISO vs RHP since last year to go along with his -4 wRC+ overall over the last week. George Springer (96.9 mph aEV on five BBEs) and Carlos Correa (101.6 mph aEV on seven BBEs) have both manhandled Michael Pineda in the past, but the talented right-hander is finally putting it all together with a 3.12 to go along with his 27.5 K-BB% this year. Nolan Arenado has also homered twice against a pitcher who has missed each of the last two seasons, but both of those against Hyun-Jin Ryu came in a single game in LA a few weeks ago. Among batters with at least 10 Statcast recorded BBEs against tonight’s pitcher (and there are just a handful), Jose Abreu has the highest aEV (93.8 mph, 10 BBEs) against Phil Hughes. He’s without a HR and has just three extra-base hits and seven strikeouts in 29 career PAs in this matchup.
As reported by: Statcast Matchups Other tagged players: Carlos Correa, Michael Pineda, Hunter Pence, Brandon Belt, Bronson Arroyo, Nolan Arenado, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Jose Abreu, Phil Hughes Trey Mancini and Mark Reynolds only bats on the board with a 300+ wRC+ over last week
Trey Mancini (322 wRC+, 41.7 Hard%, 2 HRs) is the hottest bat on the night slate. He’s hitting everything (239 wRC+, .548 ISO vs RHP), so it’s more of a question of whether he fits in the lineup in an NL park than whether he deserves to hit. A.J. Cole has just a 35.6 GB% vs RHBs, though he’s allowed just 21.6% of contact to be hit hard in the small sample that’s been his major league career so far. Mark Reynolds (300 wRC+, 27.8 Hard%, 4 HRs) is the only other batter on the board to reach the 300 wRC+ mark over the last week (10 PA min.) and will likely be popular at home against the lefty Ryu (RHBs .381 wOBA this year). Reynolds has just an 87 wRC+, .164 ISO vs LHP since 2015, actually performing better against same handed pitching. Buster Posey (293 wRC+, 45 Hard%, 3 HRs) should be a strong play, even at home, against Bronson Arroyo (RHBs .421 wOBA this season). Ben Gamel (272 wRC+, 38.9 Hard%, 1 HR) provides a less expensive OF option, though Marco Estrada has been stingy to LHBs (.274 wOBA, 26.8 Hard% since 2015) despite being an extreme fly ball generator (33.6 GB% since 2015). For a super contrarian play, take a look at Matt Holliday (265 wRC+, 50 Hard%, 1 HR) vs Dallas Keuchel (RHBs .292 wOBA, 25.2 Hard% since 2015).
Other tagged players: Mark Reynolds, Buster Posey, Ben Gamel, Matt Holliday The Twins @ White Sox may offer contrarian stacking opportunities on both sides
We once again find ourselves in a spot where the two teams playing at Coors hold the highest implied run lines despite the Dodgers’ inefficiencies against LHP (87 wRC+) and the Rockies’ inefficiencies overall (80 wRC+ at home, 20.0 K-BB% vs LHP). On other team nearly cracks five implied runs (4.99) via the RotoGrinders Vegas Odds, despite their own 51 wRC+ at home vs a pitcher generating a 62.2 GB% with a double digit SwStr% in each of his last four starts. Beyond that, looking for poor pitchers too attack isn’t as much of an issue as looking for poor pitchers in poor spots. Many of the more difficult spots go to quality arms tonight. One potentially under-valued spot players might be able to look for offense is Chicago tonight. Derek Holland has improved to a league average 12.2 K-BB%, but his 2.02 ERA is mostly a product of a .220 BABIP and 6.4 HR/FB. He’s allowing a 38.2% hard contact rate with RHBs owning a .340 wOBA against him since 2015. The Twins find themselves projected to score just four runs despite several lefty-mashing bats in the lineup. A stack including Kennys Vargas (159 wRC+, .219 ISO vs LHP career), Miguel Sano (134 wRC+, .254 ISO vs LHP career), Robbie Grossman (142 wRC+, .181 ISO vs LHP since 2015) and Brian Dozier (120 wRC+, .249 ISO vs LHP since 2015) and Jorge Polanco (117 wRC+, .179 ISO vs LHP since 2015) could pay off nicely. On the other end, Phil Hughes gives it up to everybody, casting no such illusions with an ERA and estimators above four. He’s allowed Barrels on 9.7% of PAs according to Statcast with RHBs pounding him for a .355 wOBA and 35.1 Hard% since 2015. The White Sox are poor vs RHP (67 wRC+), yet are still projected for the fifth highest run line (4.44), which says more about the opposing pitcher. Jose Abreu (129 wRC+, .198 ISO vs RHP since 2015 since 2015), Matt Davidson (139 wRC+, .361 ISO vs RHP career) and Todd Frazier (102 wRC+, .215 ISO vs RHP since 2015) should all make fine plays.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Miguel Sano, Brian Dozier, Jorge Polanco, Robbie Grossman, Jose Abreu, Todd Frazier, Matt Davidson Only one game (Orioles-Nationals) with weather concerns in Roth's early forecast
Kevin Roth is expecting some sporadic rain in D.C. tonight, where the Nationals will host the Orioles. Currently, he’s categorizing it as “yellow/orange” and it’s a situation worth tracking as we get closer to lock. Elsewhere, we should get 14 MPH wind blowing out to center in San Francisco and we’re anticipating 83-degree weather for first pitch in the Padres-Rangers game – the only outdoor matchup with a forecasted temperature greater than 68 degrees tonight. It’s worth noting that some storms are expected east of Arlington, so that contest is considered “green/yellow” at the moment. Be sure to visit out our weather page for complete details and check back prior to lock for Roth’s evening update.
As reported by: Kevin Roth Eduardo Rodriguez holds a 30.3% K% this season
The Brewers have done very well against LHP overall this year but they’ve turned in the fifth-highest K% against lefties (25.0%) and they’re giving the day off to two of their best bats: Eric Thames and Ryan Braun. The former (25.7 K%, .567 ISO vs. LHP this season) is being replaced by Jesus Aguilar (33.3% career K%, .023 ISO vs. LHP) and the latter (9.7% K%, .269 ISO vs. LHP this season) is having his role filled by Hernan Perez (22.5% career K%, .171 ISO vs LHP). All in all, Perez and his below-average K% will be just one of three Milwaukee bats with a K% lower than 25.0% today. Although that looks good for Rodriguez in terms of strikeouts, he’ll only face one lefty today. Last season he posted a 20.8% K% to righties. This season, he’s turned the strikeout rate up a notch to 31.2% against right-handers with an overall SwStr% of 14.3% – an improvement of 3.7% over last season – and he’s limited hard contact by righties to 27.5%. Plus, Rodriguez has a SIERA of 3.69 and hasn’t allowed more than three runs in his last three starts, including a six-inning shutout against the Orioles. Even though Milwaukee will attack with a bunch of right-handed bats, their projected run total dropped .28 to 3.92 after news broke regarding Thames and Braun. While Rodriguez could see some negative regression in his strikeout rate, he’s still an interesting target in this spot, particularly on the early two-game slate.