DFS Alerts
Wade Miley and Scott Feldman may offer low cost K upside vs strikeout prone offenses
Clayton Kershaw is pitching tonight and is therefor projected to be your top strikeout generator, even against maybe the least strikeout prone offense in the National League (SF 19.9 K% vs LHP, 18.7 K% overall). That’s not nearly enough to stop Kershaw, but there are some other arms with maybe some hidden strikeout potential on the board tonight. Danny Duffy has struck out a only 21.2% of batters through his first four starts, but has done so with at least a 16 SwStr% three times. The White Sox have been competent against LHP the last few years, but should strike out more than the 17.7% they have so far vs southpaws. Scott Feldman (21.4 K%, 10.3 SwStr%) and Wade Miley (33.3 K%, 8.9 SwStr%) also need to be mentioned, not because of their own prowess (in fact, you should not buy into Miley’s K-rate at all), but because they’re facing the two most strikeout prone offenses in the majors: the Brewers (86 wRC+, 27.2 K% vs RHP) and the Rays (123 wRC+, 28.8 K% vs LHP) respectively. There’s obvious danger in the power represented in those two offenses, but that’s why either pitcher costs less than $7K on DraftKings in a potentially high upside spot. Additionally, both sides of the Marco Estrada vs Michael Wacha matchup have exceeded a 12% swinging strike rate and 23 K% this year.
Other tagged players: Scott Feldman, Clayton Kershaw, Danny Duffy, Marco Estrada, Michael Wacha
Ryon Healy owns the hottest bat outside Coors tonight (291 wRC+ last seven days).
The two hottest hitters (among those projected or confirmed in tonight’s lineup) over the last week (10 PA min.) appear in Colorado tonight. Bryce Harper (346 wRC+, 47.1 Hard%, 3 HRs) and Ryan Zimmerman (307 wRC+, 47.4 Hard%, 4 HRs) have been destroying baseballs. Looking outside of Coors tonight though, we find three slugging RHBs. Ryon Healy (291 wRC+, 33.3 Hard%) is eligible on either infield corner on DraftKings, where he’s just $3.1K against converted reliever JC Ramirez (RHBs .339 wOBA, 34.4 Hard%), who he may see twice tonight before it gets turned over to the bullpen. Healy has had some success against RHP though (120 wRC+, .197 ISO). Giancarlo Stanton (290 wRC+, 41.2 Hard%) takes his hot bat to Philly to face the erratic Vince Velasquez (RHBs .324 wOBA career). Jedd Gyorko (277 wRC+, 60 Hard%) has also had some success against RHP (127 wRC+, .301 ISO since last season) and while Marco Estrada has limited RHBs (.287 wOBA since 2015), he does allow a lot of contact in the air, while Gyorko costs less than $3.5K on either site. While not currently projected to start, he’s does often see action against RHP (for reasons stated) and seemed worth a mention.
Other tagged players: Giancarlo Stanton, Jedd Gyorko, Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman Yankees-Red Sox postponed on Tuesday; game rescheduled for July 16th
Tonight’s game between the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox has officially been postponed due to inclement weather. The game has already been rescheduled for July 16th as a part of a doubleheader. Obviously, it is imperative to remove any and all Yankees and Red Sox players from your daily fantasy lineups, as they will not accrue fantasy points this evening.
As reported by: Ian Browne
Lots of strong 1B & OF bats on a 14 games slate, even outside of Coors
Most of your premier matchup bats are going to be coming out of Colorado tonight as German Marquez had great difficulty with batters from either side of the plate in his short 20 inning major league debut last season (RHBs .397, LHBs .391) with a below average strikeout rate and Joe Ross has always struggled with LHBs (.355 wOBA, 35.5 Hard%, 36.7 GB%). Harper (167 wRC+, .285 ISO vs RHP since 2015), Turner (138 wRC+, .228 ISO vs RHP career), Zimmerman (307 wRC+, 47.4 Hard% last seven days), Murphy (142 wRC+, .227 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Eaton (126 wRC+, .171 ISO vs RHP since 2017) should all be highly coveted for good reason from the visitor side, while Blackmon (122 wRC+, .229 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Gonzalez (128 wRC+, .258 ISO vs RHP since 2015) check all the boxes for the home team. Some of the strongest looking bats elsewhere though, appear at First Base. Eric Thames hit two more last night, both off a lefty, but he also has a .203 wRC+, .415 ISO with a 51.3 Hard% against RHP and though Feldman is more of a neutral arm against LHBs (.317 wOBA since 2015), he has the benefit of a great home environment for LH power hitters and is still under-priced on DraftKings ($4.2K). His counterpart, Joey Votto (166 wRC+, .245 ISO, 41.7 Hard% vs RHP since 2015), is in a similarly strong spot against a pitcher who has floundered in his sophomore year (Zach Davies 6.3 K-BB%, 35.7 Hard% overall this season). Arizona also hosts a pair of potential pivots on each side in Goldschmidt (171 wRC+, .226 ISO vs LHP since 2015) and Tomas (144 wRC+, .259 ISO vs LHP career) for the Diamondbacks and Renfroe (155 wRC+, .242 ISO vs LHP career) and Myers (125 wRC+, .183 ISO vs LHP since 2015). Though Corbin has struggled against opposite handed bats (.355 wOBA, 35.1 Hard% vs RHBs since 2015), Clayton Richard (.349 wOBA vs RHBs since 2015), has at least shied away from hard contact in the air vs RHBs (29.4 Hard%, 59.8 GB%).
Other tagged players: Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Ryan Zimmerman, Daniel Murphy, Adam Eaton, Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez, Joey Votto, Paul Goldschmidt, Hunter Renfroe, Wil Myers, Yasmany Tomas Zack Greinke worth the price tag on Monday's slate? (Spoiler Alert: He's not)
Zack Greinke is coming off of a stellar eight-inning, six strikeout performance against the San Diego Padres where he allowed just one earned run on a single solo home run. Coincidentally, he’ll take on that same Padres squad tonight, however, this time the game will take place at home instead of the spacious confines of Petco Park. This could be problematic for Greinke considering his overall struggles pitching at Chase Field since he was acquired by the Diamondbacks prior to last season. In 2016, Greinke’s xFIP was more than a full run higher at home than on the road (4.54), which can only be explained by the significant dropoff in strikeouts (16.3% K%) and a severe increase in walks (7.4% BB%). Nowadays, Greinke seems to carry more name recognition than actually daily fantasy relevance and on a slate dearth of recognizable starting pitching options, he may gain traction as a popular choice at pitcher in lower dollar tournaments despite being relatively average to below-average in nearly everyone important metric, 19.8% strikeout rate, 35.1% fly ball rate, and 38.7% hard hit rate leading to a 3.80 SIERA. Further adding to the fade Greinke argument is that the matchup is not as great as it seems at first glance. The Padres have several power bats that hit right-handed pitching well throughout their lineup and get the additional benefit of the largest ballpark upgrade they could possibly see outside of Coors Field. In fact, Ryan Schimpf (.292 ISO), Wil Myers (.211 ISO), Hunter Renfroe (.269 ISO), and Austin Hedges (.281 ISO) all own an ISO greater that .200 versus right-handed pitching, making each of them interesting one-off options in tournaments.
Other tagged players: Ryan Schimpf, Wil Myers, Hunter Renfroe, Austin Hedges
Several salary saving Catchers are in favorable spots tonight
While not necessarily due to arms, players are still going to need a couple of affordable bats if paying up for Coors tonight. There may not be many viable options at the top of the order, but there are plenty of punt plays behind the plate with at least some potential. Without a standout catching option tonight, that may be where players look to save. On FanDuel, Buster Posey is the only projected or confirmed starter at more than $3K where Miguel Montero (101 wRC+, .157 ISO vs RHP since 2015, 306 wRC+ over the last week) is just $2.6K ($3.2K on DK) against Chad Kuhl (LHBs .373 wOBA, 37.9 Hard% career). He is hitting seventh, as is Chris Herrmann (101 wRC+, .204 ISO vs RHP since last season), who is at home in Arizona against Jhoulys Chacin (LHBs .344 wOBA, 36.1 Hard% since 2015) for just $2.2K ($3.4K DK). Chris Gimenez (132 wRC+, .254 ISO vs LHP since 2015) faces his old teammate Martin Perez (RHBs .341 wOBA, 31.2 Hard% since 2015) also out of the seven spot for $2.1K ($3.2K DK). On DraftKings, Yasmani Grandal (122 wRC+, .229 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is also the same cost ($3.2K) and faces Matt Cain (LHBs .396 wOBA since 2015). It’s a bit difficult to find an average or better bat out of the leadoff spot in a good matchup at a low cost tonight, but players may want to wait to see where Andrew Toles (131 wRC+, .191 ISO vs RHP career) hits tonight with the Dodgers dealing with some injury issues. He costs just $2.9K on DraftKings and $2.2K on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Chris Herrmann, Chris Gimenez, Yasmani Grandal, Andrew Toles Tampa Bay @ Baltimore upgraded, but still carries risk in Kevin's evening update
The good news is that Kevin’s outlook on the Tampa Bay Baltimore game has improved from ORANGE this morning to YELLOW/ORANGE in his updated forecast. The game is not in the clear, but it's optimistic for potential Archer owners that he sees the risk in this game more likely as a late start than in game delay. There are smaller rain risks in Pittsburgh (vs Chicago NL) and Colorado (vs Washington), though nothing that seems to have long delay or PPD potential. Players can read Kevin's full report, along with some potentially strong wind conditions on our Weather page (linked below) and be sure to follow him on Twitter (KevinRothWx) for further updates.
Coors reigns supreme in Projected Ownership tonight
Coors hitters combine for the six most highly projected ownership rates on FanDuel tonight, along with the top four on DraftKings. Luckily, there appear to be many third base pivots on either site with Joey Gallo, Mike Moustakas, Justin Turner and Miguel Sano all being projected at 10% or less on either site, while Mike Napoli and Anthony Rizzo may get the same treatment at first base. With several bats worth paying up for tonight and not a clear cut elite mound option tonight, players are expected to pay down for pitching tonight. There are some lower-priced arms that have shown some strikeout potential this month (Vargas, Garrett, Chavez). Premium subscribers can check out ownership projections for all players on our Projected Ownership page.
As reported by: Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Mike Moustakas, Joey Gallo, Justin Turner, Mike Napoli, Anthony Rizzo, Jesse Chavez, Jason Vargas, Amir Garrett Phil Hughes owns an unheard of 42.3% Hard-Soft% through three starts
Phil Hughes is coming off a poor performance in his previous outing against the Cleveland Indians, allowing six runs, four earned, in just 3.1 innings pitched. Tonight; he’ll toe the rubber against an equally imposing Texas Rangers lineup on the road at the hitter-friendly confines of Globe-Life Park. Hughes has been up to his typical low strikeout (16.7% K%) ways thus far in the 2017 campaign while allowing a high 44.2% fly ball rate and an astronomical 51.2% hard hit rate. All of this is a recipe for disaster against a Rangers squad that is littered with quality hitters up and down their lineup, though they do seem to lack players that stand out individually for their elite plate skills. This makes them better utilized as a stack than looking for the potential of one-off upside in tournaments, especially with a questionable bullpen behind Hughes. The core of any Rangers stack should be focused around the trio of Carlos Gomez (129 wRC+, .363 wOBA, .255 ISO vs RHP since 2016), Nomar Mazara (113 wRC+, .344 wOBA, .195 ISO vs RHP since 2016), and Rougned Odor (107 wRC+, .336 wOBA, .247 ISO vs RHP since 2016), while hitters like Mike Napoli (.204 ISO vs RHP), Robinson Chirinos (130 wRC+, .367 wOBA, .299 ISO vs RHP since 2016), and Joey Gallo (.277 ISO vs RHP since 2016) are better utilized as fill-ins around the core, or even as one-offs if deciding against the full stack and building multiple lineups. This is due to their range of outcomes being much more variable, leading to a higher boom or bust potential on a nightly basis.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Nomar Mazara, Rougned Odor, Mike Napoli, Robinson Chirinos, Joey Gallo, Phil Hughes Joey Gallo has seven Barrels with a 100.3 mph aEV on Flies & Liners
Three active players tonight have exceeded seven barrels this season. Barrels, being the new Statcast metric measuring how often optimal launch angles meet high exit velocity. One is Charlie Blackmon (123 wRC+, .230 ISO vs RHP since 2015), who may be the top overall bat on the slate tonight at home against replacement arm (literally) Jacob Turner. Eric Thames has a 206 wRC+, 47.4 Hard% over the last week and has actually cooled off over the last few days. He may see decreased ownership facing another breakout lefty in Amir Garrett. Joey Gallo (110 wRC+, .257 ISO career vs RHP) has barreled just as many pitches (nine each). Unfortunately, he bats lower in the order, but faces Phil Hughes (LHBs .348 wOBA, 33.8 Hard% since 2015) in a favorable Texas park tonight. Gallo is one of several viable 3B pivots off Arenado tonight. His 100.3 mph aEV on fly balls and line drives is best of this group of three.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Statcast Other tagged players: Eric Thames, Charlie Blackmon RotoGrinders Player Projections offer a pair of Arizona alternatives to Coors bats tonight
While three Coors bats (Arenado, T.Turner, Blackmon) lead overall projections among hitters, there are plenty of 3B pivots for those who don’t want to pay an enormous price for Arenado. Jake Lamb (134 wRC+, 285 ISO vs RHP) projects within a point on either site, while also being one of the top projected values on DraftKings (2.36 Pt/$/K) alongside teammate David Peralta (132 wRC+, .209 ISO vs RHP since 2015), who is also the only bat on FanDuel projected for more than 4.0 Pt/$/K. Tonight may also be a night to pay down for pitching (Jesse Chavez 5.01 Pt/$/K on FanDuel, Amir Garrett 3.24 Pt/$/K) with the top priced pitchers having either weather (Archer) or velocity (Greinke) issues tonight.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: David Peralta, Nolan Arenado, Trea Turner, Charlie Blackmon, Jesse Chavez, Amir Garrett, Chris Archer, Zack Greinke Three Baltimore bats exceed a 95 mph aEV against Archer (min. 10 BBE)
There are six batters tonight with multiple HRs against the pitcher they are facing, but we’re dealing with a lot of old data as only one has even 10 BBE during the Statcast era. That would be Jonathan Schoop (two HRs, 98.5 mph aEV on 10 BBE) against Chris Archer. Chris Davis has also homered three times off Archer with a 99.9 mph aEV on six batted balls, but he has also struck out 11 times in 29 PAs. Adrian Gonzalez has homered four times against Matt Garza in 58 career PAs, but with just an 85 mph aEV on the only four Statcast recorded BBE in recent seasons. Both were once All Star caliber players, but are much different now. Chase Utley and Mike Napoli are the other batters with two HRs against the pitchers they are facing tonight (Cain & Hughes), though the data on many of their battles may be out-dated as well. Among those with at least 10 BBE against their opponent tonight, Manny Machado also has some nice numbers against Archer (95.2 mph aEV on 13 BBE).
As reported by: Statcast Matchups Other tagged players: Jonathan Schoop, Adrian Gonzalez, Chase Utley, Mike Napoli, Manny Machado Jason Vargas leads the slate with a 31.1 K% and 13.4 SwStr%
There are four pitchers on today’s board with a swinging strike rate above 12% and a strikeout rate of at least 25%. Chris Archer (25.5 K%, 12.6 SwStr%) is the name everyone expects to see and he might be the top pitcher on the slate if weather cooperates tonight. Hyun-Jin Ryu (25 K%, 12.4 SwStr%) is a bit of a surprise because he’s missed the last two seasons due to injury and he’s being pummeled on contact (14.3 Barrels/BBE, six HRs already). The other two are two of 2017’s early breakout stars. Amir Garrett (28.4 K%, 12.9 SwStr%) was a middling prospect coming into the season, but the secondary pitches have played up more than expected. As an added bonus, he faces an offense that has struck out in 30.2% of PAs vs LHP so far and sits atop the RotoGrinder’s K Predictor tonight (7.8). The Brewers also have tremendous power from the right-side (39.1 Hard%, 26.7 HR/FB vs LHP), adding some risk. The real shock here is the transformation of Jason Vargas into Rich Hill. He leads the slate with a 31.1 K% and 13.4 SwStr% after missing most of the last two seasons. Vargas faces a White Sox lineup that has been competent against LHP (114 wRC+), but have a team-wide 28.2 K% and 49 wRC+ over the last week. One more affordable arm for Coors stackers to look at tonight is Jesse Chavez, who has returned to starting with 21.1 K% and 11.3 SwStr%. He faces a Toronto offense down a couple of bats with just a 74 wRC+ and 24.1 K% vs RHP in a big park, while sitting fifth in projected strikeouts tonight (5.18).
As reported by: RotoGrinders K Predictor Other tagged players: Amir Garrett, Chris Archer, Jesse Chavez, Hyun-Jin Ryu Pair of affordable Catchers and a pair of Nats among week's hottest hitters
Among batters either confirmed or projected to be in the lineup tonight with at least 10 PAs over the last week, Bryce Harper is the hottest hitter in baseball (367 wRC+, 50 Hard%) and he takes his act to Colorado. While he’s hit LHP well (144 wRC+, .225 ISO since 2015), he faces a LHP who has allowed just a 23.5 Hard% to LHBs since entering the league last year and has one of the highest price tags we’ve ever seen for a batter on either site. Teammate Ryan Zimmerman is right behind him (323 wRC+, 53.3%). He costs more than $1.5K less with the same 144 wRC+, but a .311 ISO vs southpaws since 2015. He’ll certainly be one of the most popular bats on the board tonight. A couple of more affordable Catchers are streaking as well. Players are probably paying down for pitching tonight, but will need savings elsewhere to afford Coors bats. They could come in the form of Miguel Montero (306 wRC+, 50 Hard%) or Jett Bandy (294 wRC+, 38.5 Hard%). Montero (101 wRC+, .157 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has a nice matchup with Chad Kuhl (.373 wOBA, 37.9 Hard% career vs LHBs), while Bandy may be facing early season breakout Amir Garrett, but RHBs do have a 36.4 Hard% against him and the young backstop has been more prominent against LHP than players may realize (139 wRC+, .303 ISO with 57.4% of contact in the air.
Other tagged players: Miguel Montero, Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman Jayson Werth has a 156 wRC+, .305 ISO vs LHP since 2015
Jayson Werth has a 156 wRC+ (.305 ISO) vs LHP since 2015. That wRC+ is the fifth highest (min. 30 PA) batters projected to be in the lineup tonight against the handed type pitcher they are facing tonight. In a great spot in Coors, he could be the expensive, over-looked bat lower in the order against Tyler Anderson, who has struggled out of the gate this season. Anderson’s GB rate is only 39.7% this year and Werth has elevated contact against LHP nearly 50% of the time over the last two plus seasons. He could be one of the better values in this game. Above Werth on this list today are a number of usual suspects, including Mike Trout (178 wRC+, .255 ISO vs LHP – Francisco Liriano 88% of career HRs allowed to RHBs), Joey Votto (166 wRC+, .244 ISO vs RHP – Matt Garza .365 wOBA, .344 ISO vs LHBs since 2015), Ryan Braun (165 wRC+, .249 ISO vs LHP – Amir Garrett juts a .252 wOBA vs LHBs in three starts, but a 36.4 Hard%), and Corey Seager (163 wRC+, .229 ISO vs RHP – Matt Cain .396 wOBA vs LHBs!!).
Other tagged players: Tyler Anderson, Mike Trout, Joey Votto, Ryan Braun, Corey Seager