DFS Alerts
Dylan Bundy has posted a career-best 12.7% SwStr% thus far in 2017
Dylan Bundy is off to a solid start this season, posting a quality start in each of his first two outings. Today, he’ll take on a Toronto Blue Jays squad that he already held to just one earned run in seven innings of work while punching out eight in his first start of the year. To make this matchup that much more appealing from a daily fantasy perspective, Toronto recently placed Josh Donaldson on the disabled list, which leaves a giant void in their lineup against both right and left-handed pitchers. Bundy posted a 25.2% strikeout rate to right-handed batters in 2016, which sets up well against this Blue Jays lineup that is a shell of its former self. The one concern with Bundy is that he had an issue with walks versus righties (10.4% BB% in 2016), though he was able to reign that issue in a bit with a 7.4% walk rate to left-handed batters. Bundy is still close to average in the strikeout department against lefties (18.9% K%), and he kept hard contact to a below-average level to batters from both sides of the plate, surrendering just a 28.0% hard hit rate. The good news for Bundy is that Toronto doesn’t really have any lefties of note outside of Kendrys Morales to work around this afternoon. This puts Bundy firmly into consideration for all formats on two-pitcher sites but is probably better reserved for tournaments on sites that allow you to roster just one starting pitcher like FanDuel.
As reported by: FanGraphs
Will the real Wily Peralta please stand up?
Wily Peralta is off to a surprisingly solid start this season, to his standards at least, going at least five innings in each start and allowing three earned runs or less in both starts. He’s set to take on an underrated Reds lineup this afternoon that has some capable hitters from both sides of the plate. Despite his solid start to 2017, this is still a pitcher that posted a minuscule 16.8% strikeout rate last season. Peralta was even worse against lefties in 2016, inducing a 14.0% strikeout rate to the tune of a .374 wOBA while allowing a 32.4% hard hit rate and 25.0% line drive rate. This puts any Reds left-handed hitter firmly into play, particularly Joey Votto (161 wRC+, .418 wOBA, .253 ISO vs RHP in 2016/17), who has mashed right-handed pitching for most of his career. The remaining Red lefties like Billy Hamilton, Arismendy Alcantara, Scott Schebler, and even Tucker Barnhart remain viable options as a part of a stack in tournaments given their lack of individual upside, though Schebler as been known to get a hold of a pitch here and there and leave the yard and Hamilton can provide some upside through stolen bases,
Other tagged players: Scott Schebler, Billy Hamilton, Wily Peralta LAA-KC the only weather concern among the night MLB games
We have a great night for baseball around the Majors outside of the Angels-Royals matchup in Kansas City. According to Kevin Roth’s latest weather forecast update, there is a chance of PPD and a rain delay is likely, ultimately classifying the weather risk as YELLOW/ORANGE. This type of situation can be risky when rostering pitchers, and even hitters with the PPD not entirely ruled out. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page Andrew Cashner had an atrocious 30.0% Hard-Soft% versus RHB in 2016, leading to a 1.54 HR/9
Andrew Cashner is set to make his season debut in tonight’s game against the Seattle Mariners and is coming off the worst season of his professional career, posting a 4.72 SIERA, 10.2% walk rate, and 35.8% hard hit rate, all well above league average. Cashner has traditionally struggled the most with left-handed batters throughout his career, and last season was no different, allowing a .380 wOBA, 11.8% walk rate, 41.0% hard hit rate, 37.4% groundball rate, and 25.6% line drive rate. All of which, added up to to a 4.97 xFIP versus lefties in 2016, which is not very good, to say the least. Left-handed batters against Cashner has been a thing and an elite matchup for years now, putting Mariners power left-handed bats like Robinson Cano (151 wRC+, .389 wOBA, .263 ISO vs RHP in 2016/17) and Kyle Seager (146 wRC+, .382 wOBA, .219 ISO vs RHP in 2016/17) firmly in play for all formats this evening. The Seattle lineup isn’t as littered with lefties as it has been in the past, but players like Jarrod Dyson, Nelson Cruz (127 wRC+, .354 wOBA, .212 ISO vs RHP in 2016/17), and Mitch Haniger (195 wRC+, .435 wOBA, .316 ISO vs RHP) remain as viable options to round out a Mariners stack in tournaments, despite surrendering the platoon advantage to Cashner.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Kyle Seager, Nelson Cruz, Mitch Haniger, Andrew Cashner Matt Shoemaker has induced an 11.0% SwStr% this season, despite a 11.9% K%
Matt Shoemaker is off to a relatively uninspiring start to his 2017 campaign after failing to pitch past the fifth inning in both starts this season, cumulating in a brutal outing his last time out, allowing seven runs (six earned) in just 4.1 innings pitched against the Seattle Mariners. A huge reason for his struggles is an astronomical 11.9% walk rate, which is significantly higher than the 4.5% walk rate he posted last season. When you combine the walks and an oddly low 11.9% strikeout rate, it’s not surprising to see why Shoemaker has struggled the early going. On the positive side, Shoemaker has induced an 11.0% swinging strike rate through two starts, which is basically in line with his career mark, meaning we can expect his strikeout rate to begin to normalize towards the 21.4% he posted in 2016. Conveniently, he draws a matchup with a Kansas City Royals squad that is striking out at a 23.4% clip versus right-handed pitching thus far, which is currently good for eighth-worst in the league. On a five-game slate, it’s difficult to say any stack is out of play, but the Royals stack certainly checks in towards the bottom of the list given their overall lack of power throughout the order. Mike Moustakas (139 wRC+ .375 wOBA, .310 ISO vs RHP in 2016/17) appears to be the biggest threat for Shoemaker to work around given his low 12.9% strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching the last two seasons, while Brandon Moss (.302 ISO vs RHP) is a more boom or bust one-off option with his massive 30.4% strikeout rate to right-handed pitching last season (38.7% in 2017). That is, of course, if siding with the Royals side of this matchup in tournaments, which is not the recommended optimal strategy.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Mike Moustakas, Brandon Moss No real trouble spots among afternoon MLB games, but some mild rain concern in CWS-MIN
It’s a relatively great day for baseball around the Majors, outside of some slight weather concerns in the White Sox-Twins game, which Kevin Roth currently has classified as YELLOW meaning that he is unable to rule out a possible rain delay. This makes pitchers in that game a little riskier but batters from both teams still remain firmly in play. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page Gregory Polanco (groin) scratched from the Pirates lineup today; Alen Hanson will play LF and bat eighth
Polanco was a late scratch from the Pirates lineup for today’s game against the Chicago Cubs due to right groin discomfort. He’ll be replaced in left field by Alen Hanson, who will bat eighth. This will slide everyone up a spot in the order, except for Josh Bell, who leapfrogs Francisco Cervelli and will slot into the five hole behind David Freese. This news does make Pittsburgh a less appealing contrarian tournament stack, as they are now without one of their best left-handed bats against Jake Arrieta with the wind blowing out at Wrigley field.
As reported by: Adam Berry Other tagged players: Alen Hanson With the wind blowing out at Wrigley Field, the Cubs implied team total has ballooned to 6.3 runs
Tyler Glasnow is coming off of a horrendous opening start to the season against the Cincinnati Reds in which he walked five and allowed five earned runs in just 1.2 innings pitched. He’ll draw the unfortunate matchup this afternoon facing off against the defending World Series Champions at Wrigley Field with the wind blowing out to left-center and center field. This is a nightmare situation for pitchers, as seen by the massive game total increase to 10.5 runs, and makes Jake Arrieta a less safe option for cash games on the other side of this game for Chicago. While we only have an extremely limited sample size on Glasnow at the Major League level, it’s clear that he has struggled with two things, walks and preventing steals. In fact, he now owns an 18.2% walk rate to right-handed batters and a 15.1% walk rate overall in his brief career. Those numbers can be expected to normalize over time but a road meeting with a patient and powerful Cubs lineup does not seem to be a likely starting point. The obvious Cubs lefties to target in all formats are Anthony Rizzo (147 wRC+, .393 wOBA, .259 ISO vs RHP in 2016/17), Kyle Schwarber, and Ben Zobrist (122 wRC+, .357 wOBA, .185 ISO vs RHP in 2016/17), while righties like Kris Bryant (134 wRC+, .374 wOBA, .227 ISO vs RHP in 2016/17) and Wilson Contreras (123 wRC+, .358 wOBA, .212 ISO vs RHP in 2016/17) are great options to round out a full Cubs stack in tournaments and may go overlooked slightly, though news of the wind blowing out at Wrigley does tend to spread quickly among the daily fantasy community, so it’s safe to say that is a little unlikely.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Lines and Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Kyle Schwarber, Ben Zobrist, Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras Matt Holliday (lower back stiffness) scratched from Yankees lineup today; Chris Carter will DH and bat third
Holliday was a late scratch from the Yankees lineup for today’s game against the St. Louis Cardinals due to lower back stiffness. He’ll be replaced in the order by Chris Carter, who will DH and bat third. The lineup change does not do much to alter the daily fantasy landscape on the early slate, as Carlos Martinez is an elite pitcher against right-handed batters, but he remains a boom or bust pitching option given his tendencies to consistently struggle with lefties.
As reported by: Wallace Matthews Other tagged players: Chris Carter CWS-MIN will begin in a weather delay tonight
The start of the White Sox-Twins game will be delayed due to rain. The tarp has been on the field since approximately 6:30 pm CST and there is currently no estimated time frame to begin play. Kevin Roth had this game classified as ORANGE/YELLOW in his latest weather update, meaning that a delay was likely and a PPD can not be ruled out at this point. It’ll be best to limit exposure to players in this game as much as possible and especially avoid the pitching options, which won’t be difficult to do considering the pedigree of the arms scheduled to take the mound in this one. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: Daryl Van Schouwen Dallas Keuchel has generated a 73.5 GB% and 11.8 SwStr% through two starts
While most of the attention rightfully goes to Clayton Kershaw when he takes the mound, both Noah Syndergaard and Julio Teheran (facing the Padres) project to be quite popular as well tonight. One pitcher who is off to a great start and could fly under the radar tonight is Dallas Keuchel. In two starts, he’s struck out just eight batters, but with an 11.8 SwStr% that suggests improvement to at least the league average rate he’s held the last couple of years. However, keeping the ball consistently down has led to a tremendous 73.5 GB% and -18.9 Hard-Soft%. The upside may not be as high as some other pitchers tonight, but he transitions to one of the more pronounced pitcher’s parks in Oakland tonight and projects to be owned in 5% or fewer of lineups on either site tonight.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Noah Syndergaard, Julio Teheran, Clayton Kershaw
Andrew Toles is one of several low cost bats batting leadoff tonight
Players are looking for cheap bats if paying up for pitching tonight and there’s no better place to start than with the Dodgers against Zack Greinke. Greinke rebounded with solid results in his second start, but the stuff still doesn’t appear to be there as the velocity remains down and he’s allowed hard contact on more than 40% of batted balls. Andrew Toles (135 wRC+, .198 ISO career vs RHP) leads off and costs $2.7K on DK/$2.4K on FD. Corey Seager (149 wRC+, .236 ISO career vs RHP) doesn’t fit the normal criteria here, but does cost less than $3K on FanDuel. Kevin Pillar has been a below average hitter with little power against LHP in his career and we can say the same for Guillermo Heredia, but both cost the minimum out of the leadoff spot on FanDuel against a weak LHP (Miley, Perez) tonight. Brandon Guyer (152 wRC+, .192 ISO vs LHP since 2015) joins them at $2K, batting third for Cleveland. Gorkys Hernandez is also a below average hitter in what could be a difficult matchup against Tyler Anderson, but would also be a low priced leadoff hitter if here in the confirmed lineup for San Francisco tonight. Although lower in the lineup, the Mariners offer two more viable punt plays on the merit of matchup tonight with Taylor Motter (261 wRC+, .60 Hard% last seven days – $3.3K DK/$2.7K FD) at SS and Mike Zunino (131 wRC+, .238 ISO vs LHP since last season – $3K DK/$2.1K FD) behind the plate.
Other tagged players: Corey Seager, Zack Greinke, Kevin Pillar, Guillermo Heredia, Wade Miley, Martin Perez, Brandon Guyer, Gorkys Hernandez, Mike Zunino, Taylor Motter Julio Teheran continues to dominate RHB this season (20.0% K-BB%, 3.17 xFIP)
Julio Teheran is looking to keep the positive momentum going as he takes the hill in tonight’s game against the San Diego Padres. He is coming off two consecutive performances in which he went at least six innings and didn’t give up an earned run. Teheran had a breakout season of sorts in 2016, posting a 22.0% strikeout rate to go along with a low 5.4% walk rate, though he was even better against right-handed batters, evidenced by his fantastic 24.7% K-BB% and 3.03 xFIP last season.The Padres do have a couple of left-handed hitters to worry about in Ryan Schimpf and Yangervis Solarte, but they are still a team that ranked second-worst in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching last season. Though the Padres are likely to improve on that number, they still project as a team that will be a plus matchup for a starting pitcher in the strikeout department, raising Teheran’s already high floor at home this evening. This makes Teheran an ideal SP2 candidate on DraftKings and strong tournament option on FanDuel as a pivot away from higher priced pitchers like Clayton Kershaw and Noah Syndergaard. If looking at a Padres one-off in tournaments, Schimpf (135 wRC+, .371 wOBA, .304 ISO vs RHP in 2016/17) and Solarte (126 wRC+, .359 wOBA, .192 ISO vs RHP in 2016/17) remain the only viable options.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Ryan Schimpf, Yangervis Solarte Weather risk in Minnesota (White Sox @ Twins) in Kevin's late forecast
Kevin is concerned with just one game in his late forecast, but there appears to be plenty of potential issues with the White Sox visiting the Twins tonight. The good news is that it’s unlikely many players are considering rostering arms from this game, but the situation isn’t entirely clear for hitters either with Kevin’s most trusted models not in complete agreement. He believes it’s more likely to play than not, but it’s not a sure thing. Be sure to check out the full report for this game on our Weather page (linked below) and follow Kevin on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for important updates heading into lock.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page Twins bats look to tee-off on Dylan Covey in his first start above the AA level
Dylan Covey will take the bump tonight against the Minnesota Twins for his first career start in the Big Leagues. The interesting thing about Covey is that his highest experience in the minors is the six starts he made at AA last season, meaning he made the jump to the Majors with no innings pitched at the AAA level. It’s not uncommon for an elite prospect to make that jump occasionally, but Covey looks to be anything but that, topping out at a minuscule 16.8% strikeout rate in his best full season in the minors. Instead, it seems that the White Sox simply had no better options available than Covey and are fully prepared for this matchup to potentially turn into a bullpen game for them. This is a green light to load up on as many Twins hitters as possible, evidenced by their slate-high 5.1 runs implied team total. Minnesota essentially has three power bats against right-pitching at the top of their order in Brian Dozier (128 wRC+, .364 wOBA, .258 ISO vs RHP in 2016/17), Miguel Sano (.232 ISO vs RHP in 2016/17), and Max Kepler (.220 ISO vs RHP in 2016/17). They are also surrounded in the lineup by several “stackable” filler options like Joe Mauer, Robbie Grossman, and Jason Castro, who is off to a scorching start in 2017 against right-handed pitching (219 wRC+, .471 wOBA, .300 ISO in 14 PA), and fills an always shallow catcher position in your lineups this evening.
Other tagged players: Miguel Sano, Max Kepler, Jason Castro, Dylan Covey