DFS Alerts

Cespedes, Walker OUT, Conforto in against Edinson Volquez

Yoenis Cespedes and Neil Walker will join Stanton on the bench tonight after a game that lasted longer than five hours last night, but the positive here is that Michael Conforto (131 wRC+, .248 ISO career vs RHP) is in the lineup tonight, batting fifth. He has started the season on fire (293 wRC+ with two HRs in 15 PAs) when given the opportunity so far. Edinson Volquez has allowed LHBs a .329 wOBA with a 33.5 Hard% since 2015. Conforto costs just $3.4K on DraftKings, $2.8K on FanDuel, while leadoff man Curtis Granderson (118 wRC+, .231 ISO vs RHP since 2015) costs just $2.9K on FanDuel as well.

Stanton sitting against Syndergaard after Thursday night's marathon

It’s not like players needed extra-incentive to roster Noah Syndergaard tonight. He’s struck out one-third of the batters he’s faced with a 64.5 GB% through two starts, but Giancarlo Stanton, whom Syndergaard has owned (6 Ks in 12 PAs) is out of the lineup tonight, greatly reducing Miami’s power potential in this lineup. Syndergaard was already an elite option and if anything, the presence of Ichiro Suzuki over Stanton may actually reduce Thor’s strikeout total slightly.

Donaldson OUT, but Toronto still offers opportunities against Wade Miley

Josh Donaldson is still out with an injury tonight, but his absence may be a blessing for players looking for more affordable offensive options tonight. Wade Miley was somehow allowed to stick around long enough to walk seven batters in his first start and RHBs have a .343 wOBA against him with 37 HRs since 2015. The Toronto lineup is still entirely RH against Miley tonight with only Jose Bautista (120 wRC+, .212 ISO vs RHP since 2015 with only a .227 BABIP) above $4K on DraftKings and no starter more than $3.3K on FanDuel. Bautista leads a contingent of RHBs including Kendrys Morales, Troy Tulowitzki, Russell Martin and Steve Pearce all with a wRC+ between 109 and 127 with an ISO between .169 and .214 vs LHP since 2015. The Blue Jays have an implied run line of just 4.3 tonight.

The Indians check-in with a 4.8 runs implied team total, the third-highest on the slate

Daniel Norris is coming off a pedestrian first outing against the Boston Red Sox where he went 6.1 innings, striking out just two and allowing three earned runs. He’ll take the mound tonight in a matchup with an equally dangerous Cleveland Indians lineup that will be trotting out nine right-handed bats in this series opener. This is not the greatest news for Norris as a daily fantasy option since he was a merely average pitcher last season versus righties, posting just a 19.7% strikeout rate and allowing a .341 wOBA and a 35.7% hard hit rate against him. His flyball tendencies to right-handed hitters (39.4%) also translated to a high 1.41 HR/9 allowed in 2016, meaning that Cleveland power righties are certainly in play on Friday’s slate and a full stack can not be entirely ruled out. Brandon Guyer (181 wRC+, .437 wOBA, .220 ISO vs LHP in 2016) and Edwin Encarnacion (142 wRC+, .385 wOBA, .275 ISO vs LHP in 2016) headline the Cleveland power bats against left-handed pitching and slide conveniently right into the three and four hole in the batting order. Guyer is essentially a lock and load option on FanDuel now, where he is priced at the stone minimum ($2K). Jose Ramirez (126 wRC+, .360 wOBA vs LHP in 2016/17), Francisco Lindor, and Carlos Santana all posted decent to below average numbers against southpaws over the last two seasons, reserving them to tournament plays only and preferably as a part of a Cleveland stack centered around Guyer and Encarnacion.

Eugenio Suarez (141 wRC+, .275 ISO) and Adam Duvall (109 wRC+, .260 ISO) lead potential Cincinnati assault on LHP

The Reds are generally considered a below average offense, but with some power. Tonight, they have an implied run projection 4.6 runs, which is fourth most on the slate currently, offering players an interesting stacking opportunity tonight. It’s likely that players considering Kershaw and/or Syndergaard are going to need to save money somewhere and this Cincinnati offense affords the chance to do so. Tommy Milone is a fly ball pitcher, who has allowed 25 HRs to 677 RHBs since 2015. For the Reds, RHBs Jose Peraza (119 wRC+), Adam Duvall (109 wRC+, .260 ISO), and Eugenio Suarez (141 wRC+, .275 ISO) are all above average hitters against LHP since last season and we can include even Zack Cozart (91 wRC+, .218 ISO), who has a 254 wRC+ over the last week. This stack will cost you a combined $15.5K on DraftKings and just $13.1K on FanDuel, leaving plenty of room for pitching and perhaps even another high powered bat.

Angels @ Royals presents some of the better hitting conditions this evening

With temperatures cooling down a bit from earlier in the week in the north east and generally around the country tonight, the most interesting hitting conditions appear to be in Kansas City, where it’s expected to be in the mid-70s around first pitch. Kansas City is a park that generally plays scoring friendly (106), but power suppressing (82) according to Seamheads.com three year park factors, but 15-20 mph gusts blowing out towards left according to Kevin’s early forecast, could help RH power a bit. Additionally, the Angels have a career reliever on the mound, who’s not likely to be around long and while Danny Duffy has some high powered swing and miss stuff on the other side, RHBs did hit 26 HRs against him last year, while the Angels lean predominantly right-handed. A game with an implied run total of nine could see more offense than expected.

Clayton Kershaw and Freddie Freeman top RotoGrinders projections tonight

Clayton Kershaw is going to be the top arm almost any time he takes the mound and tonight is no different according to the RotoGrinders projections (47.42 FD, 31.03 DK) with Noah Syndergaard about a touchdown behind him and $1.4K to $2.1K less on either site. For those looking to maximize their point per dollar production, Scott Feldman could be an interesting SP2 on DraftKings, projecting to earn 2.68 points per $1K in salary. He does have a 27.9 K% (10.5 SwStr%) through two starts and faces a strikeout prone Milwaukee offense. Edinson Volquez is projected as the top value on FanDuel for $6.1K. Volquez is a replacement for Conley, who was forced into service last night and will be facing a tired Mets offense on normal rest with an impressive 28.3 K% through two starts, but 45.2% hard contact. Freddie Freeman (vs Jhoulys Chacin) is the top overall projected batter on either site with Corey Seager (vs Zack Greinke) the only batter projected for more than 4 Pt/$/K on FanDuel.

Aaron Judge (276 wRC+, 69.2 Hard% last seven days) has been almost literally tearing the cover off the ball

Among batters with at least 10 PAs over the last week, Christian Vazquez is the hottest hitter on the slate (408 wRC+). He’s not currently projected to start, but keep an eye out for him if he does tonight, as Catcher may be the most likely punt position for those paying up for pitching tonight. He does have a tough matchup against Chris Archer, but this is a pitcher prone to hard contact on occasion. Michael Conforto trails him with a 319 wRC+ over the last week and he may garner a start against Edinson Volquez (.329 wOBA vs RHP) after the Mets played a marathon last night. Wil Myers (278 wRC+) faces a fly ball pitcher Julio Teheran, who has dominated RHBs since 2015 (.248), but is pitching in a brand new home park tonight. Aaron Judge (.276 wRC+, 69.2 Hard%) is almost literally tearing the cover off the ball. Michael Wacha has been average against RHBs (.333 wOBA, 29.9 Hard% since 2015). There are two more interesting hot hitters a bit lower on the list. Both for the same reason. Zack Cozart (254 wRC+) has compiled just a 14.3 Hard% over this stretch, but faces fly ball pitcher Tommy Milone (.347 wOBA vs RHBs since 2015) in a dangerously power friendly park. He’s certainly an option for those who may want to pay down at SS or even part of an affordable Reds stack. Chris Davis has a 198wRC+ on just a 7.7 Hard% over the last week. He has one HR and has walked 12% of the time, but that weak contact has generated eight hits for him. He does have three career HRs against Aaron Sanchez with a 93.9 mph aEV on 10 Statcast recorded batted balls.

Nelson Cruz crushes LHP (184 wRC, .331 ISO vs LHP) and Martin Perez in particular (2 HR, 103.2 mph aEV)

Nelson Cruz has a 184 wRC+ vs LHP since 2015 (.331 ISO) and faces the very punishable Martin Perez (.339 wOBA vs RHBs since 2015) tonight, against whom he’s homered twice with a 103.2 mph aEV on nine Statcast recorded batted balls in his career. That tops all batters against the pitcher handedness they’ll be facing tonight. Mike Trout (178 wRC+, .261 ISO vs LHP) vs Danny Duffy (.331 wOBA vs RHBs) and Paul Goldschmidt (177 wRC+, .231 ISO vs LHP) vs Clatyon Kershaw (.226 wOBA vs RHBs) come in next, while Josh Donaldson (161 wRC+, .281 ISO vs LHP) vs Wade Miley (.343 wOBA vs RHBs) and Corey Seager (159 wRC+, .227 ISO vs RHP) vs Zack Greinke (.274 ISO vs RHBs) round out the top five among projected starters tonight. While Donaldson is struggling with injury and it’s inadvisable to ever attack Kershaw, Trout and Seager are more interesting tonight. Players may be reluctant to use a high priced Trout against a high strikeout arm in Duffy, but he certainly had his issues against RHBs, allowing 26 HRs to them last year. Seager is likely facing a reduced version of Greinke, who bounced back in his second start, but is still throwing with reduced velocity and allowing more than 40% hard contact through two starts.

Top options for the two Friday afternoon games

There are only two afternoon games this Friday and really only viable options from two of the teams (Washington and Chicago) but there are some small two-game and all-day slates so let’s take a quick look at the top options

At pitcher, Stephen Strasburg is the clear top option of the four pitchers taking the mound. Kyle Hendricks of the Cubs is the only other one worth mentioning as Gerrit Cole has struggled and has a tough match up in the Cubs and Aaron Nola is a substantial underdog facing a talented Nationals lineup.

You’ll want to target hitters from the Cubs and Nationals lineup and outside of Gregory Polanco on the Pirates, avoid hitters from the other two teams. For the Cubs, the top four of the order (Schwarber, Bryant, Rizzo, and Zobrist) are all elite options and the next three in the the order (Russell, Heyward, and Montero) are worth stack consideration or as one off’s. From the Nationals it’s the left-handed bats of Adam Eaton, Bryce Harper, and Daniel Murphy that we will want to target Anthony Rendon, Ryan Zimmerman, and Matt Wieters are secondary options.

No rain concerns in Thursday night's MLB Weather forecast

Outside of the normal windy conditions in San Francisco for the Diamondbacks-Giants game, we’ve got a great night for baseball around the Major Leagues with every outdoor ballpark receiving the Roth Seal of Approval with a GREEN classification. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.

The A's lineup features four RHB that have posted a .225 ISO or greater in 2016/17

Jason Vargas is coming off a great opening start in which he held the Houston Astros to just one earned run in six innings of work while striking out six. Tonight, he’ll take on an Oakland Athletics squad that is loaded with right-handed bats in the top half of the order. Vargas hasn’t pitched more than 43 innings in the Majors since 2014, so it’s difficult to really dive into his splits and advanced stats from last season. However, throughout his career, he has typically been a low strikeout pitcher and that was backed up by a 16.0% strikeout rate to left-handed batters and a 16.3% strikeout rate to right-handed batters in 2014. The most pronounced split for Vargas is his 43.1% flyball rate to right-handed hitters compared to just 24.8% versus lefties. So, clearly, it is relatively easy to avoid the Athletics lefties considering Vargas’ tendencies of holding them in check historically and the uninspiring lefties buried at the bottom of the Oakland lineup. A full Athletics stack may not be the optimal route to take in tournaments, but there are several right-handed bats that have the power to take Vargas deep, including Ryon Healy (142 wRC+, .374 wOBA, .263 ISO vs LHP in 2016/17), Khris Davis (137 wRC+, .369 wOBA, .279 ISO vs LHP in 2016/17), Marcus Semien (117 wRC+, .340 wOBA, .244 ISO vs LHP in 2016/17), making them an intriguing under the radar mini stack in tournaments.

Fresh off of a shutout, the Blue Jays draw a great on-paper matchup versus Kevin Gausman and his reverse splits

Kevin Gausman is looking to bounce back after a middling performance against the New York Yankees in his previous start, giving up four earned runs in just 4.2 innings pitched. One of his primary issues in the early going has been the walks, issuing seven free passes in just 10 innings of work (14.3% BB%) but is something we should expect to regress to the mean given his 6.2% walk rate in both 2015 and 2016. Tonight, Gausman is scheduled to take the mound against the Toronto Blue Jays, who possess some massive power from the right side of the plate, which normally would be something we’d expect to be neutralized by a talented right-handed pitcher. However, to this point in his career, Gausman has exhibited some significant reserve splits, posting a minuscule .284 wOBA to lefties opposed to .349 wOBA to right-handed hitters last season. Outside of a high 1.63 HR/9 and 7.3% walk rate to righties in 2016, the rest of Gausman’s splits were relatively neutral, which could signal some possible normalization of his massive wOBA splits this season. Toronto strikes out at a high clip against right-handed pitching, with a 22.4% mark in 2016 and 23.9% so far this season. The risk for Gausman is exaggerated here with the fact that his biggest weakness to this point in his career has been allowing home runs to right-handed batters, and that is exactly what this Blue Jays lineup can do well. This is a clear boom or bust matchup for each side, as either the Gausman or the Blue Jays bats could go off for big games. The primary bats that Gausman will need to navigate around are Josh Donaldson (158 wRC+, .407 wOBA, .274 ISO vs RHP in 2016/17), Jose Bautista (118 wRC+, .349 wOBA, .207 ISO vs RHP in 2016/17), and Troy Tulowitzki (.199 ISO vs RHP in 2016/17) and should be key cogs of any Blue Jays stack if deciding to take that route.

Brewers set up as the top stack of the night against gas can Bronson Arroyo

It’s the year 2017 and Bronson Arroyo is still hanging around in the major leagues – does that say more about him or the Reds pitching staff? Given the fact that Scott Feldman was the opening day starter for Cincinnati, the answer is obvious. Nonetheless, this provides us with an opportunity to attack one of the weakest pitching staffs in the league with several strong LHBs towards the top of the Milwaukee order. The 40 year-old right-hander didn’t look sharp in his first outing of the season, surrendering six runs on six hits (4 XBHs, 2 HRs) and 3 BB/3 Ks, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him post a very similar stat line on Thursday night. Arroyo simply does not have a major league arm at this point in his career and while avoiding some of the Brewers in GPPs does make some sense given that they’ll carry high ownership percentages, they are arguably the best team target in cash games. Jonathan Villar may be the most intriguing target on the Milwaukee side, if for no other reason than his position (2B) is extremely thin on the high-end – Villar is far and away the top overall play at the position. Arroyo’s long delivery and lack of velocity (his fastball is sitting around 83-84 MPH on average) only help to aid Villar in his quest for stolen bases, something he’s able to rack up as regularly as any other player in the league (he stole 46 bases off RHP last season). Travis Shaw may not be the top overall play at 3B, but he’s right up there in terms of $/point value. Shaw will slot into the clean-up spot behind Ryan Braun, a spot that should provide him with ample run producing opportunities against Arroyo. Eric Thames is still far too cheap on FanDuel ($2,500), making him an across the board option over there, but he’s still a viable tournament target on DraftKings where he’s priced adequately ($4K). Thames already has four XBHs against RHP in 20 ABs, and he’s likely to add to that total this evening. We also can’t forget about Ryan Braun (.365 wOBA, .226 ISO vs. RHP in 2016), who is an elite target in all formats on Thursday. It doesn’t hurt matters that there are five Brewers ranked inside the top 11 in our Daily HR Predictor (link below).

Matt Andriese induced a 10.3% SwStr% in 2016, implying some positive regression to his 20.7% K%

Matt Andriese is coming off an uninspiring performance in his first start of the season against the Toronto Blue Jays in which he allowed five runs, four earned, in just four innings pitched. He’ll take the bump for the Rays in tonight’s matchup with the New York Yankees, who will be without Brett Gardner in the lineup for at least one game after his collision with Rickie Weeks Jr. at first base in yesterday’s contest. Despite the less than stellar first outing, Andriese showed some promise last season posting a 20.7% strikeout rate with just a 4.7% walk rate without any pronounced splits versus hitters from either side of the plate. The Yankees offense remains relatively unproven with a lot of young players and older veterans on the downside of the careers, so they certainly aren’t an offense that we are looking to avoid at all costs. For this reason, Andriese is a viable SP2 in tournaments, though it may be tough for him to become relevant on one pitcher sites with Madison Bumgarner and other high strikeout pitchers on the slate. If this game were taking place in Tampa Bay opposed to Yankees Stadium, the edge would easily go to Andriese, but with the plus hitting environment, especially for lefties, the preferred side of this matchup (barely) looks to be the Yankees left-handed hitters that possess some power upside. Greg Bird and Aaron Hicks are the two Yankees lefties to consider that have some pop in their bats, though they are off to slow starts this season, adding to their already high volatility. Even though he bats from the right side, Aaron Judge may be the best tournament one-off in this lineup, as he has posted a .258 ISO versus right-handed pitchers to this point in his young career.