DFS Alerts
Top half of Washington lineup could give Lance Lynn trouble (.340 wOBA vs LHBs career)
Lance Lynn made his first start back from Tommy John Surgery with his velocity intact from prior to the surgery, but generated just five swings and misses (98 pitches) and that could be a problem for him against the top half of this Washington lineup. Lynn traditionally has issues with LHBs (.340 wOBA), which could be magnified if he struggles to miss bats. Adam Eaton (127 wRC+, .175 ISO vs RHP since 2015) tops a lineup with Bryce Harper (164 wRC+, .274 ISO) and Daniel Murphy (142 wRC+, .225 ISO) following with all three off to hot starts (160 to 180 wRC+, 30+ Hard% over the last week). The Nats are projected for a middling 4.5 runs tonight, but could perhaps serve as a stacking alternative to Coors tonight.
Other tagged players: Daniel Murphy, Adam Eaton, Lance Lynn
George Springer (6.66%) tops tonight's HR Predictor
With Jerad Weaver going in Colorado, you would think Rockies would litter the top of the board on today’s HR Predictor page, but the top three spots belong to non-Coors players tonight. George Springer leads all players with a 6.66% projection. The park downgrade to Safeco may not be able to hold him as Ariel Miranda has allowed 13 HRs to RHBs and he’s only faced 204. He’s also allowed nine of 14 career HRs at home. While the second and third spots belong to the afternoon slate (Cabrera and McCann), Story (6.09%) and Arenado (5.85%) round out the top five.
As reported by: RotoGrinders HR Predictor Other tagged players: Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado RHBs have a .352 wOBA against Jered Weaver, LHBs a .372 wOBA against Peralta since 2015
As if players needed an added excuse to stack against Jered Weaver, RHBs have a .352 wOBA (35.3 Hard%) against him since 2015. That’s the second worst platoon split on the board tonight (100 PA min.) and his .347 wOBA (29.8 Hard%) against LHBs isn’t far behind. There are ample reasons to stack against Weaver with a Colorado lineup implied to score nearly seven runs tonight! The pitcher with the worst splits though is Wily Peralta, against whom LHBs have a .372 wOBA (34.3 Hard%) and RHBs have a .351 wOBA (31.1 Hard%) since 2015, but there may be less optimism in attacking him. Toronto has few batters who can take advantage of issues against lefties (Kendrys Morales 115 wRC+, .218 ISO vs RHP since 2015), but Peralta has also shown some improvement himself, holding all batters to a .295 wOBA over his last 10 starts last season, though his improvement was more against RHBs (.240 wOBA vs .344). Morales still appears to be an interesting play, but with the slider potentially a weapon now, it makes the outlook for RHBs (and potentially a predominantly RH Toronto lineup) a bit more bleak.
Other tagged players: Wily Peralta, Kendrys Morales Dylan Bundy has a new weapon and generated a 17.2 SwStr% in his first start
As we run through the middle of most rotations for the second time tonight, the slate is lacking any true Aces with the inconsistent Cole Hamels easily the most expensive as one of only two pitchers costing more than $9K on either site (Robbie Ray on DraftKings is the other). Perhaps this is the night that DFS players can look towards a couple of high upside arms in Dylan Bundy and James Taillon. It’s likely the community has already taken note of Bundy’s opening performance, striking out eight of 25 batters faced (17.2 SwStr%) in a difficult environment against the Blue Jays. He talked about using his slider again (the organization forbid it due to injury issues in the past) and boy, did he ever successfully incorporate the new weapon in his first start. It doesn’t get any easier traveling to Boston, but the Red Sox are dealing with some injuries and a team-wide flu epidemic over the last week. Bundy costs right around $7K on either site. James Taillon wasn’t quite as impressive in his first start, but still came out of Boston with six strikeouts (23.1 K%) and a 58.8 GB% in his first start. He’s a bit more expensive around $8K on either site, but returns home to a great pitching environment to face a below average Cincinnati offense.
As reported by: fangraphs Other tagged players: Jameson Taillon Hunter Renfroe has a 161 wRC+, .326 ISO vs RHP
It’s not a surprise to find Mike Trout (181 wRC+, .264 ISO vs LHP) atop the list of hitters against handedness of pitcher faced tonight since 2015 and he’s certainly in play even against Cole Hamels. To find him followed by Votto (169 wRC+, .248 ISO vs RHP), Harper (164 wRC+, .278 ISO vs RHP) and Braun (163 wRC+, .250 ISO vs LHP) is not a surprise either. Of those, Harper may have the top matchup against Lance Lynn (.346 wOBA vs LHBs since 2015 – missed 2016 TJS) in Washington. The fifth name on this list has small sample size considerations, but Hunter Renfroe has a 161 wRC+, .326 ISO vs RHP, which includes a 47.3 FB% against a rookie pitcher who generated just a 14.3 GB% against RHBs in his first start. Oh, and he also plays gets to hit at Coors tonight, where he homered last night. Although not cheap, Renfroe is more affordable than most Coors bats at $4.4K on DraftKings, $3.6K on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Mike Trout, Joey Votto, Ryan Braun, Bryce Harper, Lance Lynn Cleveland and Carlos Carrasco huge favorites against James Shields and the White Sox this afternoon
It’s one of only two games being played this afternoon but Vegas doesn’t expect it to be much of a game as they have made the defending AL champions nearly 2 1/2 run favorites over one of the worst pitchers in baseball last season, James Shields. Carlos Carrasco takes the mound for the Indians and is one of the top pitching options for those playing DFS contests that include this game. He had a 3.41 SIERA last season with a K rate topping 25% and faces a weak White Sox lineup – which can be completely faded today. The same can not be said for the Indians as you will want to target them heavily against Shields, who allowed a .370+ wOBA to both sides of the plate last season. The top four of the lineup (Carlos Santana, Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, and Edwin Encarnacion) are all top options with Jose Ramirez also a viable stack option batting 5th.
As reported by: Cleveland Indians official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Edwin Encarnacion, Francisco Lindor
Plenty of runs should be scored when Minnesota visits Detroit today
There are only two afternoon games today so there aren’t going to be many contests that can utilize this game but if you are playing one that is, the Minnesota at Detroit game is certainly one to take a hard look at as it comes in with a 9 1/2 Vegas run total. Two subpar lefties in Hector Santiago (for the Twins) and Matt Boyd (for the Tigers) are on the mound today and pretty much any of the right handed bats at the top of either lineup is in play. For the Twins that would start with Brian Dozier leading off followed by the likes of Miguel Sano (4th), Robbie Grossman (2nd), and Jorge Polanco (3rd). From the Tigers side, Miguel Cabrera is the obvious top option batting 3rd with Ian Kinsler (leading off), Nick Castellanos (2nd), Victor Martinez (4th), and Justin Upton (5th) all worthy of roster consideration.
As reported by: Detroit Tigers official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano, Ian Kinsler David Freese (161 wRC+ vs LHP since last season) costs $3K or less on either site tonight
Bargain bats might be difficult to come by on this small five game slate, as there are few minimally priced bats in confirmed lineups tonight, but there are a few options. Jordy Mercer (119 wRC+ vs LHP since last season) leads off in Pittsburgh ($3K DK, $2.1K FD). He is the only batter $3K or less on DraftKings in the top four of a lineup tonight, though David Freese (161 wRC+ vs LHP since last season) costs the same ($2.5K FD), batting fifth. While we’d rather stick to the top half of the lineup even with our cheap bats, Colorado and the Catcher position might be an exception and that’s what we find tonight with Luis Torrens ($2.7K DK, $2K FD) batting eighth for the Padres tonight.
Other tagged players: Jordy Mercer, Luis Torrens Scooter Gennett replaces Zack Cozart in Reds lineup tonight
Zack Cozart has been scratched. Scooter Gennett will replace him in the lineup, batting 7th.
As reported by: Cincinnati Reds Other tagged players: Zack Cozart Potential weather issues at Wrigley tonight (LAD@CHC)
Kevin’s late update has downgraded the game at Wrigley tonight to YELLOW/ORANGE for a potential delay. While hitter’s look like less of an issue, a delay might make Jon Lester, who looked like a potential contrarian pay up tonight a bit more of a risk. It’s also one of only two games tonight with a projected temperature less than 70 degrees at first pitch. You can read Kevin’s full report on our Weather page (linked below).
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page Kike Hernandez absent from Dodger lineup against Lester
Not that players were likely planning to attack Jon Lester anyway tonight, but a glaring omission from the Dodger lineup tonight is Kike Hernandez, who is normally a capable and very affordable bat vs LHP. Though RHBs have just a .274 wOBA, 26.5 Hard% against Lester since last season, players could look at two other affordable players in the top half of the lineup tonight. Both Logan Forsythe (145 wRC+, .249 ISO) and Franklin Gutierrez (149 wRC+ .252 ISO) have smashed LHP since the start of the 2015 season.
Other tagged players: Franklin Gutierrez, Logan Forsythe Jon Lester may have some contrarian appeal tonight.
The core Coors bats are projected to be overwhelmingly popular tonight with Ryan Schimpf joining them from the Padres as our Projected Ownership page now shows. Tyler Glasnow topping the Pitcher projections may be a bit of a surprise, at least on DraftKings, as a rookie with known control issues. Potential upside in his strikeout rate against a weak Cincinnati lineup is more difficult to ignore on FanDuel for the minimum cost, but that would call for more than half the slate fading deGrom in Philadelphia on a five game slate. Considering these projections, one should potentially consider paying up for the top arms tonight, especially if Lester is only somewhere in the neighborhood of 10% on FanDuel as suggested. You can find every player’s Projected Ownership tonight with a premium subscription.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Jacob deGrom, Tyler Glasnow, Ryan Schimpf Six of eight non-Coors offenses implied for between four and 4.5 runs tonight
The Vegas Odds Implied Run Lines are fairly straight forward tonight. The two Coors teams are projected atop the board, though the Rockies (6.6 runs) are far beyond the Padres (4.9 runs). Only the offenses facing Lester and deGrom are projected for fewer than four runs, while everyone else is between four and 4.5 tonight. That makes potential pivots from Coors wide open. A couple of places to look might be the struggles of Jerad Eickhoff since late last season against LHBs, under warmer than normal early season conditions in Philadelphia tonight, but also a few hot bats against Adam Wainwright. Murphy and Zimmerman each have a wRC+ above 200 this season, while each has decent numbers against Wainwright (Murphy 0 Ks in 18 PAs – Zimmerman three HRs). Bryce Harper adds two more career HRs against him. A contrarian Mets/Nationals stack could overlap on FanDuel, but might be more accommodating on DraftKings with some positional flexibility.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Ryan Zimmerman, Daniel Murphy, Jerad Eickhoff, Adam Wainwright Warmer conditions in the north coast, but a couple of chilly games tonight
Temperatures have warmed in the north east with the three games on the slate tonight projected to see temperatures in the 70’s. Conditions seem more favorable for the Mets in Philadelphia, facing a fly ball pitcher with the wind apparently blowing out to left-field, which may assist someone like Yoenis Cespedes. The other two games, in Chicago and Colorado, appear to be a bit more chilly, though nobody could ever say Coors conditions favor pitchers. Perhaps temperatures in the 50’s encourage players to consider contrarian alternatives. Wrigley is always the one to watch for. Kevin will give us his update before lock, which may include if wind conditions might favor offense or pitching tonight.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page Joey Votto and Kris Bryant top non-Coors projected players tonight.
It’s no surprise that Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado top the Rotogrinders’ projections tonight, but non-Coors players Joey Votto and Kris Bryant sneak into the top five. Both have the platoon advantage, in which situations they’ve crushed since 2015 (Votto 169 wRC+, .259 ISO – Bryant 155 wRC+, .275 ISO). The top pitchers are no surprise either, though Jon Lester slightly edges deGrom on either site. Tyler Glasnow is the obvious value arm at the min-price on FanDuel, projecting for more than six points per $1K of salary, while it’s a bit tougher to extract value on DraftKings. On DraftKings, Kike Hernadez is the only bat to project for more than 2.5 Pt/$/K, so watch to see where he bats against Lester for $2.5K, while both Jordy Merce (3.63) and Neil Walker (3.5) top the Fanduel Pt/$/K projections.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Kris Bryant, Jacob deGrom, Jon Lester, Tyler Glasnow, Enrique Hernandez, Jordy Mercer, Neil Walker