DFS Alerts
LHBs have a 20.6 HR/FB, 34.3 Hard% w/ 15 extra base hits last 42 innings vs Jerad Eickhoff
Jerad Eickhoff allowed just eight HRs in his first 86 innings at home as a Phillie. In a power friendly park that looked a little suspicious. Over his last 42 innings at home last year, he allowed 12. Over those 42 innings, LHBs especially have hammered him (20.6 HR/FB with a 34.3 Hard%). He’s allowed 15 extra-base hits to 93 total LHBs with just a 26.1 GB%. While he pitched well in his first start, the only legitimate LHB he saw (Joey Votto) homered. Mets LHBs are an interesting pivot from Coors tonight. Jay Bruce (114 wRC+, .262 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is the hottest of the bunch (165 wRC+ this year) and bats cleanup. Curtis Granderson (135 wRC+, .229 ISO) and Lucas Duda (120 wRC+, .219 ISO) are also bats with power potential. Yoenis Cespedes remains an option from the right side as well (135 wRC+, .232 ISO). In fact, both Neil Walker and Asdrubal Cabrera have a 111 wRC+ against righties since 2015 (ISOs above .170 as well).
Other tagged players: Jerad Eickhoff, Curtis Granderson, Lucas Duda, Yoenis Cespedes, Neil Walker, Asdrubal Cabrera
Two Nationals (Murphy, Zimmerman) top this week's hottest hitters (200+ wRC+)
The top hitters over the last week are off the board for the night slate, but there are still four batters with a wRC+ above 200 over the last seven days on the board tonight. Two of them come from the Washington lineup. Daniel Murphy (.224 wRC+, 42.9 Hard%) has not struck out in 18 career PAs against Adam Wainwright and interestingly, he had a conversation with Ryan Zimmerman (203 wRC+, 28.6 Hard%) on taking advantage of his 95.8 mph aEV last year by finding a swing that allows him to elevate more. The early season returns have so far been strong. Additionally, he has three career HRs in 29 PAs against Wainwright. Other hot hitters include David Freese (203 wRC+, 54.6 Hard%), a potential contrarian consideration against Brandon Finnegan tonight, and Howie Kendrick (202 wRC+, 43.8 Hard%) with a much less enviable appointment with Jacob deGrom.
Other tagged players: Ryan Zimmerman, Adam Wainwright, David Freese, Brandon Finnegan, Howie Kendrick, Jacob deGrom Joey Votto's 169 wRC+ vs RHP (.249 ISO) since 2015 tops today's bats vs pitcher handedness faced tonight
He’s followed by Joey Votto has a 169 wRC+ against RHP (.249 ISO). That’s the highest mark for any batter over the last two plus seasons against the handed pitcher they are facing tonight. He is a near mortal lock for at least walk tonight against the control challenged Tyler Glasnow. Bryce Harper (163 wRC+, .275 ISO vs RHP) faces Adam Wainwright, against whom he has two career HRs (25 PAs). Kris Bryant has a career 155 wRC+ against LHP (.275 ISO). He’s facing a lefty (Alex Wood) with a small sample reverse split last season, but Bryant is a superior overall bat. Make sure to check wind conditions at Wrigley. Franklin Gutierrez has become recognized for his lefty-mashing skills in recent seasons (149 wRC+, .252 ISO) and is likely to provide some salary relief in the middle of the Dodger lineup, though the matchup with Jon Lester is not ideal. Matt Carpenter (147 wRC+, .250 ISO vs RHP) rounds out the top five. Tanner Roark excels at producing weak contact, but Carpenter was listed as a potentially strong matchup against Roark’s pitch types in Rotogrinders’ excellent Trendspotting article (Premium Content) today.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Trendspotting Other tagged players: Bryce Harper, Franklin Gutierrez, Kris Bryant, Matt Carpenter, Tyler Glasnow, Adam Wainwright, Alex Wood, Jon Lester, Tanner Roark Finding deGrom alternatives on Monday night
Players probably don’t have to wait for Projected Ownership updates later this afternoon to figure out who the most popular pitcher is likely to be tonight (but be sure to check anyway). Jacob deGrom’s velocity was up as he struck out six of 21 Braves with 10 of 14 batted balls on the ground and only one marked as hard contact in his first start. It’s going to be pretty difficult to get away from him on DraftKings, where two pitchers are needed and he’s $2K less than Jon Lester. On FanDuel, however, they’re separated by just $100. A potentially less popular Lester is certainly a reasonable pivot. He did have some hard contact issues in his first start (46.7%) along with a drop in velocity, but still struck out seven Cardinals. The Dodgers struggled greatly against LHP last year and struck out in a quarter of 114 PAs against them to start this year. Another contrarian option might be to consider a virtual pitcher punt with Tyler Glasnow for $4.4K. Glasnow is a highly regarded prospect with two plus pitches (fastball, curveball), who has major control issues that may eventually land him in the bullpen, but significant enough upside in a nice matchup in a favorable RH power suppressing home park against an offense a Cincinnati offense with only one left-handed bat to fear. Glasnow is a high risk play, who will also allow players to easily afford every Coors bat they desired.
Other tagged players: Jon Lester, Tyler Glasnow Giants with several solid options against Arizona today
If Matt Moore can avoid trouble from the top of the Diamondbacks lineup today he has the potential to have an excellent outing and as such makes for a great GPP option today. His adversary, Taijuan Walker, however, will have a much tougher time against a pesky Giants lineup and is a player to avoid. A.J. Pollock, Paul Goldschmidt, and Yasmany Tomas are viable options from the Arizona lineup while Brandon Belt, Hunter Pence, and Buster Posey highlight a solid Giants offense that is one that should be targeted on this small slate. Brandon Crawford and Eduardo Nunez are also worth considering, especially if you’re going to stack the San Francisco lineup.
As reported by: John Shea on Twitter Other tagged players: Buster Posey, A.J. Pollock
Tarp on field in Detroit; game will start in rain delay but expected to play out
The tarp is on the field in Detroit and there is a potential that the game will not start on time but weather reports including those from RotoGrinders meteorologist Kevin Roth have the weather clearing and the game playing out. We’ll continue to monitor this situation as the day progresses but for now assume the game will go.
As reported by: Detroit Tigers official Twitter feed Justin Upton scratched from Tigers lineup; Andrew Romine now in left field
Upton is a late scratch from the Tigers lineup and will be replaced by Romine who will bat at the bottom of the order. Get Upton out of your lineups if he was in there.
As reported by: Evan Woodbery on Twitter Oakland at Kansas City has highest Vegas total of the four early games
Jharel Cotton and the Oakland Athletics visit Ian Kennedy and the Kansas City Royals in a game that has a Vegas total of 8 1/2 runs. Both Cotton and Kennedy have some potential as pitchers on this small four game slate as Cotton has K upside and Kennedy faces a struggling A’s offense in a pitcher-friendly park. For the A’s, Matt Joyce, Ryon Healy, and Khris Davis are the top hitters to target (they bat two through four in the lineup today) with Joyce the top option. Mike Moustakas headlines the Royals lineup and is a elite option (.292 ISO against RHP) while Eric Hosmer and Brandon Moss are also worth considering for your DFS lineups.
As reported by: Oakland Athletics official twitter feed Other tagged players: Jharel Cotton, Ian Kennedy, Matt Joyce Which Michael Pineda will show up today when Yankees host Tampa?
Pineda has all the stuff of an ace with a 3.35 SIERA, a 27.5% K rate, and a 46.3% ground ball rate but he has so many bad outings that he’s hard to trust. He’s a perfect GPP play any time he takes the mound and facing a strikeout prone Rays team is no different. Alex Cobb pitched well against the Yankees in Tampa last week but only pitched five innings and struggled in his limited work last season. He’s a safe fade today. LH bats for the Rays are in play against Pineda as he allowed a .352 wOBA to them last season and the park is favorable to LH hitters. Corey Dickerson (leading off), Kevin Kiermaier (2nd), and Brad Miller (4th) are all viable options from the Rays lineup. Cobb also struggles against LH bats – Greg Bird continues to sit for the Yankees so we won’t be able to use him today but Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury at the top of the order are great plays from the Yankees lineup and Matt Holliday and Chris Carter batting 3rd and 4th are viable options as well at the top of the order.
As reported by: Bryan Hoch on Twitter Other tagged players: Alex Cobb, Corey Dickerson, Jacoby Ellsbury Two of the better pitchers in the AL take the mound today as Boston visits Detroit
Chris Sale and the Boston Red Sox are visiting the Detroit Tigers who will bring their own ace, Justin Verlander, to the mound. It’s a game with a modest Vegas run total of 7 1/2 runs so it’s not one we’re going to want to target much in terms of hitting although both Sale and Verlander have given up big outings in the past and both offenses are capable of exploding for big numbers against even the best of pitchers. Andrew Benintendi batting second and Mookie Betts batting third for the Red Sox are the top options from the visiting team while the two through four hitters for the Tigers (Castellanos, Cabrera, and V. Martinez) are worth consideration against the southpaw Sale. Ian Kinsler leading off also is worth consideration if you’re looking to go contrarian and stack the Tigers.
As reported by: Pete Abraham on Twitter Other tagged players: Justin Verlander, Mookie Betts, Miguel Cabrera The Athletics currently have a 5.3 run implied team total, tied for the highest among the late games
Martin Perez is coming off a mediocre performance in his first start of the season against the Cleveland Indians where he walked four batters and allowed three earned runs in six innings of work. He’ll draw what should seemingly be a much easier matchup this afternoon with an Oakland Athletics squad that isn’t normally thought of as an offensive juggernaut. However, they are currently tied with the Dodgers for the highest implied team total on the afternoon slate, meaning Vegas is expecting them to knock Perez around a bit. This is most likely due to the Athletics lineup being chock full of right-handed bats today and Perez struggled massively with right-handed hitters in 2016, as he had just a 10.5% strikeout rate against them (2.0% K-BB%) while allowing hard contact 32.4% of the time. Perez’s one saving grace is his ability to keep the ball on the ground versus righties (52.8% in 2016) and somehow limit the damage, despite issuing free a ton of free passes. Unfortunately, this can make him a frustrating pitcher to stack against at times. Not to say Perez can’t be susceptible to surrendering a long ball or two, but he certainly isn’t a pitcher you want to be rostering too many one-offs against in tournaments given his low 26.4% fly ball rate. It’s typically best to take the stack or fade approach with him on most nights, but this afternoon looks like a prime spot to load up on a full Athletics stack considering three of the A’s first four hitters, Marcus Semien, Ryon Healy, and Khris Davis all posted at least a .250 ISO and 119 wRC+ against left-handed pitching last season.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Lines and Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Ryon Healy, Marcus Semien, Martin Perez
Carlos Martinez had an absurd 19.1% SwStr% in his Opening Day start versus the Chicago Cubs
Carlos Martinez is looking to build off of a stellar Opening Day performance in which he struck out 10 and held the Chicago Cubs scoreless in 7.1 innings of work, as he gets set to take the mound against a much less imposing Cincinnati Reds lineup this afternoon. Last Sunday’s performance was no fluke either, evidenced by the ridiculous 1.51 SIERA he posted in that outing while inducing an absurd 19.1% swinging strike rate. Many believe that this is the year that Martinez takes the next step into that elite ace tier and possibly even contend for the National League Cy Young Award by season’s end (calling my shot?). If his Opening Day start is any indication, he is well on his way. It will be interesting to see what Martinez’s ownership ends up being with other more established stud starting pitchers, like Jake Arrieta and Stephen Strasburg, taking the mound this afternoon. It’s even likely that Lance McCullers will gain some traction as a starting pitching target despite taking on a patient, high-contact Kansas City Royals lineup. However, dollar-for-dollar, Martinez looks to be the top pitching option on Sunday’s slate given his juicy matchup against a Reds squad that can really only combat him with one quality left-handed hitter in Joey Votto, the likes of Billy Hamilton, Scott Schebler, and Tucker Barnhardt don’t really strike fear into anyone’s heart in terms of hitting skills or raw power. Martinez was also elite against right-handed batters last season, inducing a 59.0% ground ball rate with just a 24.6% hard contact rate. He was also fantastic at limiting walks (6.0% BB% vs RHB) and posted an above league average 24.5% strikeout rate to right-handed batters. In other words, feel free to load up on Martinez in any daily fantasy format in this matchup with a Reds squad that has managed just 18 runs in their first five games this season.
As reported by: FanGraphs The Cubs currently own a 4.7 run implied team total, tied for 2nd-highest on the slate
In an effort not to bury the lead, the Chicago Cubs hitters will be the chalk options on Sunday’s main slate, and for good reason, as they draw a matchup against Zach Davies, who was tagged for six earned runs and walked four batters in just 4.1 innings of work in his first start versus the Colorado Rockies. The Cubs offense’s chalkiness is primarily a result of the lack of high projected team totals to pick from on the main slate, in addition to the fact that they finally exploded for double-digit runs in last night’s win over these same Milwaukee Brewers, but the truth still remains that the Cubs only possess a 4.7 run implied team total, which is not even the highest on the slate. So, yes, a Cubs fade in tournaments is certainly one that could pay off, as can any fade in MLB daily fantasy due to the volatile variance on a day-to-day basis. It’s extremely important to take a stance on Cubs hitters in tournaments this afternoon, as you’ll want to be overweight compared to the field if they go off or be underweight, preferably a full fade, if they disappoint. As for Davies, he is relatively average Major League pitcher in nearly every statistical category but does allow just a bit too much hard contact (33.8% HH% in 2016). This is something that Cubs bats like Anthony Rizzo (149 wRC+, .398 wOBA, .265 ISO vs RHP in 2016/17), Kris Bryant (133 wRC+, .372 wOBA, .231 ISO vs RHP in 2016/17), Ben Zobrist (122 wRC+, .356 wOBA, .183 ISO vs RHP in 2016/17), and possibly even the struggling Kyle Schwarber should be able to capitalize on.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Lines and Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Kris Bryant, Ben Zobrist, Zach Davies Despite yesterday's 17-run onslaught, the Phillies still ranked 5th-worst in K% and 2nd-worst in wOBA versus RHP in 2016
Stephen Strasburg comes into today’s matchup with the Philadelphia Phillies looking to build off a solid, but not superb Opening Day start against the Miami Marlins in which he held the fish to 2 ER in seven innings of work. The primary reason for his underwhelming fantasy performance was the lack of strikeouts, as he induced just three punchouts. That’s something that should be expected to change this afternoon versus a Phillies squad that had the fifth-highest strikeout rate and second-worst wOBA against right-handed pitching last season. There aren’t many new faces in Philadelphia this season either, so we should expect that trend to continue for at least the initial stretch of the season, especially in a matchup with an elite starting pitcher like Strasburg. Additionally, given the fact that the Nationals bullpen was forced to pitch 8.1 innings in yesterday’s 17-run onslaught by Philadelphia, it is much more likely for Strasburg to go deeper in this game than he normally would in his second start of the season. This would enable him to put his 30.6% strikeout rate and 11.0% swinging strike rate from 2016 to good use for an extra inning or two against this exploitable Phillies batting order. It would not be surprising whatsoever to see Strasburg end the day as the highest-scoring starting pitcher on the main slate in route to a double-digit strikeout performance.
As reported by: FanGraphs Yankees RHB possess substantial power upside in matchup against Wade Miley
Wade Miley is set to make his season debut this afternoon at Camden Yards against the New York Yankees, who have loaded their lineup with eight right-handed batters today in an effort to gain the platoon advantage as much as possible against Miley. This definitely seems to be a viable strategy, as Miley allowed a .360 wOBA to right-handed batters last season. Miley does not do any one thing particularly well, posting a below league average 19.3% strikeout rate and a 4.21 SIERA in 2016. Those numbers were combined with a less than stellar 33.3% hard contact rate, which is not a good combination. In other words, the Yankees are in a great position today to take advantage of a subpar southpaw that struggles consistently with right-handed batters. The Yankees are without Gary Sanchez this afternoon but still have several capable righty bats up and down their lineup, primarily Chris Carter (126 wRC+, .368 wOBA, .313 ISO vs LHP in 2016), Matt Holliday (.267 ISO vs LHP in 2016), and Aaron Judge, who all should be included in any Yankees stack given their immense power upside. With a lot of attention on the Cubs bats in Miller Park today, the Yankees could be an under the radar, high upside stack to differentiate a lineup in tournaments.
Other tagged players: Matt Holliday, Aaron Judge, Wade Miley