DFS Alerts
Curtis Granderson scratched from Mets lineup; Michael Conforto will lead off and play CF
Conforto will take on Granderson’s spot in the order and in the field, setting him up as a viable punt play across the industry. Vince Velasquez had fairly similar splits against R/L handed bats last season, but he did allow a higher HR rate to LH bats (1.54 HR/9) last season, which bodes well for Conforto’s strengths.
As reported by: Anthony DiComo Other tagged players: Michael Conforto
The Reds currently check-in with a 3.5 run implied team total, the second lowest on the slate
Ivan Nova is looking to build off of a solid opening start against the Atlanta Braves, in which he struck out four in six innings and issued zero walks. He’ll take the mound tonight at home to face off against an overachieving Cincinnati Reds squad that does have some nice young talent but currently lacks any real left-handed pop in their lineup outside of Joey Votto. The strengths of Nova essentially come down to his ability to limit walks (4.1% BB% in 2016) and to keep the ball on the ground (53.6% GB%), which are both aided by the spacious confines of PNC Park, one of the top pitchers’ parks in the Majors. Nova has been even better against right-handed batters throughout his career, which sets up nicely versus this Reds lineup, as he held righties to a .306 wOBA and posted a 22.4% strikeout rate and a 59.9% groundball rate in 2016 against them. These are borderline elite numbers and makes the Reds righties easy to avoid in any and all formats, cash games especially. On the other hand, Nova can be exploited by left-handed bats like Votto and possibly even Scott Schebler, evidenced by his low 13.6% strikeout rate and 37.5% hard hit rate last season. Nova still remains the preferred side of this matchup to target, but taking a shot in tournaments with an elite bat like Joey Votto (164 wRC+, .423 wOBA, .253 ISO vs RHP in 2016/17) at low ownership, is not the worst strategy.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Lines and Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Joey Votto
Max Scherzer top pitching option of the four afternoon games as Nationals host Cardinals
Scherzer is the clear cut top choice as SP today in the four afternoon games but his price tag makes it a big decision as to whether to utilize him as it would mean having to avoid Coors Field bats. There’s merit to utilizing him and stacking other games as a contrarian play. The Cardinals lineup is an easy one to fade with Scherzer on the mound while the Nationals face Mike Leake, an average pitcher who doesn’t make many mistakes and has a high ground ball rate thus limiting any upside for Washington bats. Adam Eaton, Bryce Harper, and Daniel Murphy are still viable options however given their positive splits against RH pitching.
As reported by: Washington Nationals official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy
Padres visit Colorado for final game of three game series
A Coors game in a small afternoon slate means one thing – people are going to try and stack the game as many ways as possible and there are two options you have. One, you can join them or two you can take a ride on the crazy train and fade the game. Both have merit but with the likes of Zach Lee (making his 2nd major league start) and Kyle Freeland on the mound you’re probably better off joining the masses than avoiding this game. Both pitchers are obviously not viable options and most of the hitters in the lineups are in play but we’ll focus on the best ones from each team. For the Padres, the top four of the lineup (Margot, Myers, Solarte, Renfroe) are the ones to start off with while for the Rockies any of the top six (Blackmon, LeMahieu, Gonzalez, Arenado, Parra, and Story) are great options.
As reported by: San Diego Padres official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Carlos Gonzalez, Manuel Margot, Hunter Renfroe Byron Buxton gets day off as Twins visit the Tigers
One pitcher (Kyle Gibson of the Twins) is one we’ll want to avoid today while the other pitcher (Michael Fulmer of the Tigers) is one to look at as a viable target, especially on sites with two SP’s. Outside of Max Kepler and perhaps Jason Castro the Twins lineup is an easy one to avoid today, especially with hitting options in some of the other afternoon games. The Tigers lineup doesn’t have many left-handed hitters to attack Gibson with but he does allow a .330+ wOBA to RH bats. All of the top six of their lineup with the exception of Justin Upton is worth a look (Kinsler, Castellanos, Cabrera, Martinez, Collins) and is a viable team stack on a day most will be attacking the Coors Field game.
As reported by: Mike Berardino on Twitter Other tagged players: Miguel Cabrera, Max Kepler Two young southpaws take mound today as Tampa visits the Yankees
Two young left handers take the mound today when the Rays visit New York with Blake Snell starting for the visiting team and Jordan Montgomery making his major league debut for the Yankees. Snell has some K upside but is a bit too inconsistent to be considered a viable target. Montgomery, however, is intriguing as a value option facing a Rays team that strikes out often against LHP. That said it’s also a good idea to have some shares of the Tampa offense as it is a rookie taking the mound. Steve Souza leads off and is a solid option as well as RH hitters like Evan Longoria, Rickie Weeks, and Derek Norris. From the Yankees lineup, Chris Carter and his .309 ISO against LHP is the top target as well as Matt Holliday, Aaron Hicks (batting 2nd), and Aaron Judge.
As reported by: Tampa Bay Rays official Twitter feed Other tagged players: Jordan Montgomery, Evan Longoria, Steven Souza A pair of Mariners atop the order lead tonight's Bargain Basement team
Looking for top half of the lineup bats costing less than $3K on DraftKings/$2.5K on FanDuel, we find the top of the Seattle lineup (facing Joe Musgrove). Jarrod Dyson ($2.9K DK) leads off and Mitch Haniger ($2K on FD) bats second. Haniger has shown more of a bat against RHP (122 wRC+ career) thus far, but either one may be a necessary punt on their given site if looking to pay up for Coors bats tonight. Aaron Hill ($2.2K DK) could be an interesting bat if in the lineup against Robbie Ray at home tonight, though we don’t expect many players to be punting 3B tonight. Wilmer Difo (89 wRC+ vs RHP career) is another middle IF punt option who fits the bargain basement criteria on both sites. In fact, he could become a popular play tonight with Trevor Story sitting and Lance Lynn’s documented issues against LHBs (.340 wOBA career). Devon Travis (117 wRC+ vs RHP career) is another leadoff bat, costing just $2.4K on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Jarrod Dyson, Aaron Hill, Robbie Ray, Lance Lynn, Wilmer Difo, Devon Travis
Increased risk in Pittsburgh puts Taillon in jeopardy in Kevin's late report
Jameson Taillon is projected to be a very popular pitcher tonight, so Kevin’s late update my not be very popular. Kevin is now calling for most likely at least a delay with some risk of a PPD in the Cincinnati Pittsburgh contest now. Unfortunately, two pitchers many might considering pivoting to is the other game that carries some rain related risk in San Francisco tonight. We're still too far out to make a more definitive call in that game, but keep an eye out for Kevin on Twitter (KevinRothWx) for further updates.
Nolan Arenado is projected to be owned in 40% of lineups or more
Nolan Arenado is projected to be owned in 40% or more lineups on either site tonight. Not homering off Jered Weaver tonight would be a surprise. His counterpart, Yangervis Solarte is projected to be popular as well with those two accounting for up to 65% of lineups on FanDuel according to our Projected Ownership page, while 3B eligibles Mark Reynolds, DJ LeMahieu and Ryan Schimpf on DraftKings all project north of 20% as well. Daniel Murphy (on DraftKings) and Manny Machado might be alternatives, both projecting for about 10% ownership, while Neil Walker could be an interesting 2B pivot, projecting at 10% or less on either site. Dylan Bundy had a 17.2 SwStr% against the Blue Jays in his first start and is expected to be in fewer than 10% of DFS lineups in Boston tonight. Players can see all the Projected Ownership rates with a Premium Membership.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Yangervis Solarte, Mark Reynolds, DJ LeMahieu, Ryan Schimpf, Daniel Murphy, Manny Machado, Neil Walker, Dylan Bundy No Trevor Story in the Rockies lineup; Asdrubal Cabrera sets up as the most suitable pivot
Trevor Story is absent from the Rockies lineup on Tuesday night, giving way to switch-hitting Cristhian Adames who will man the SS spot and bat seventh. Adames himself is certainly a viable option given the Rockies draw with Jered Weaver (.365 wOBA allowed to both right and left handed bats last season, a total of 37 HRs allowed) – Colorado could not be in a much better spot. However, if you’re trying to look outside of the Coors match-up, Asdrubal Cabrera sets up as arguably the best pivot off Story. Clay Buchholz struggled mightily during the spring and didn’t look any better in his first outing of the year (5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 Ks), and his inability to miss bats mixed with the unseasonably warm weather in Philly puts all of the Mets power bats squarely into play. Buchholz finished 2016 with a 5.83 xFIP against LH bats, while Cabrera blasted 20 HRs against RHP last season (.208 ISO vs. RHP). The Mets are one of the top stacking options outside of Coors, as the top six bats in the order are all playable across the board. Outside of Cabrera, Carlos Correa is a viable GPP target against Ariel Miranda in Seattle, and if you’re looking to to pay way down, Troy Tulowitzki, Cristhian Adames and Wilmer Difo are all in play.
Other tagged players: Trevor Story Warm conditions could assist hitting conditions in Philadelphia, Washington
It’s been unseasonably warm on the east coast this week with first pitch temperatures expected to be in the 70s in Philadelphia and Washington with slight breezes out towards left in either park according to our Weather page, perhaps bumping up conditions for hitters tonight. In fact, the only game with a projected temperature below 65 degrees at first pitch is out west, in San Francisco, where Kevin’s early report cited the only legitimate weather risk today as well. Players should not otherwise expect conditions to impact play one way or the other too much tonight, as no park has a wind projection blowing either in or out at more than 13 mph tonight either. Be sure to keep an eye out for Kevin’s evening update for more on the the game in San Francisco tonight.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Weather Page Jay Bruce has three HRs last two games, Clay Buchholz missed just three bats in Phillies debut
Vegas rightfully sees the run parade for the Rockies at Coors tonight. If it doesn’t happen, it’s for little reason anyone could actually predict, but things don’t always go according to plan on any given night of baseball, so it’s wise to have some hedges. Running down the top projected offense on our Vegas Odds page tonight, Toronto is second (5.1 runs), but Wily Peralta has become a bit more interesting since returning from injury late last season. The Padres (5.1 runs) are also likely to be popular tonight. Boston (4.9 runs) faces a potentially revitalized Dylan Bundy with a new weapon in his slider. Pittsburgh (4.6 runs) and the Mets (4.6 runs) might be the more interesting, potentially lower owned teams here. The Pirates face Rookie Davis, who’s secondary offerings appeared to be those of a..rookie in his first outing. He may not yet be ready for the major leagues and the Pirates could easily complicate his night. The Mets face Clay Buchholz, who missed just three bats in his Phillies debut. It’s unseasonably warm in a power friendly Philadelphia park tonight, which could play towards some of the LH power in the Mets lineup. This lineup hasn’t begun to heat up yet as a whole, but Jay Bruce (236 wRC+ last seven days) has been a pleasant exception. He homered twice last night after going deep Sunday night as well.
As reported by: fangraphs Other tagged players: Clay Buchholz, Rookie Davis JT Realmuto is the slate's hottest hitter over the last week (285 wRC+)
JT Realmuto has a 285 wRC+ over the last week, tops on tonight’s slate (10 PA min). He faces Bartolo Colon and could be considered for part of a Miami stack with Giancarlo Stanton (2 HRs vs Colon), Christian Yelich (1 HR), and Justin Bour (1 HR) all holding a 94+ mph aEV against Colon with a 10 BBE minimum. Other bats with a wRC+ above 250 over the last week include Eugenio Suarez (259 wRC+) in a tough matchup in a Pittsburgh park that suppresses RH power, Wil Myers (253 wRC+, 46.2 Hard%), who hit for the cycle in Coors last night, and Nomar Mazara (251 wRC+, 56.3 Hard%), who may not even play against the lefty Tyler Skaggs tonight. He has just a 45 career wRC+ vs LHP.
Other tagged players: Giancarlo Stanton, Justin Bour, Christian Yelich, Bartolo Colon, Eugenio Suarez, Wil Myers, Nomar Mazara Jameson Taillon tops tonight's Pitcher projections on DraftKings
That Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon top the RotoGrinders projections at just under 14 points a piece is not a surprise in a matchup at home with Jered Weaver, but Manny Machado topping the FanDuel projections (vs Drew Pomeranz), as the only player above 11 points might be today. Not because Machado isn’t great, but because the Rockies are facing Jered Freakin Weaver in Coors! Among pitchers, Jameson Taillon is a surprise atop the DraftKings board. He’s the only pitcher projected to reach 20 points, though Cole Hamels and Gio Gonzalez come close. Although, Gonzalez leads FanDuel projections overall, Taillon still shows up as the only pitcher projected for more than four points per $1K of salary (Pt/$/K). Value bats appear to be Aaron Hill (2.87 Pt/$/K) on DraftKings, facing Robbie Ray at home for just $2.2K (if he plays) and Mitch Haniger (4.38 Pt/$/K) at home in Seattle against a potentially tough righty (Joe Musgrove), but it’s difficult to ignore a minimum priced batter sitting near the top of the lineup.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projections Other tagged players: Cole Hamels, Gio Gonzalez, Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, Manny Machado, Jered Weaver, Mitch Haniger, Aaron Hill, Joe Musgrove, Robbie Ray Giancarlo Stanton has a 102.4 mph aEV on 11 batted balls against Bartolo Colon
Ryan Braun is the only player to total three HRs or more against the pitcher they are facing tonight. In total, he has six extra-base hits in 30 PAs against J.A. Happ, but the date may be a bit out-dated since Statcast Exit Velocity numbers are not included for any of their matchups. The two HR club has a few interesting members, including George Springer (99.9 mph aEV on five BBE), who tops our HR Predictor tonight (6.66%) against Ariel Miranda and Giancarlo Stanton, who has a 102.4 mph aEV on 11 batted balls against Bartolo Colon. Stanton has just a 66 wRC+ over the last week, but has made hard contact on 42.9% of batted balls.
As reported by: Statcast Matchups Other tagged players: Bartolo Colon, Ryan Braun, J.A. Happ, George Springer, Ariel Miranda