DFS Alerts

Rich Hill expected to throw between 80-90 pitches this evening

Assuming Hill is able to hit that target goal, he’s still a DFS option at home against the lowly Padres as the biggest favorite on the board, but he does carry risk given the expectation that his pitch count will be tracked carefully. Pivoting up to Jacob deGrom or Chris Sale is certainly a viable strategy, however, as both carry higher ceilings at this point.

Reds/Phillies to start in a delay on Wednesday

Analysis coming soon.

Cheap leadoff options lead our Bargain Basement team tonight

Your Wednesday night Bargain Basement team is headed by several min-priced bats in the leadoff spot tonight, including last night’s start Gorkys Hernandez (although tonight against a RHP), Joey Rickard (131 wRC+ vs LHP last season) and Andrew Toles ($2.1K), who sits atop a Dodger lineup projected to score 4.7 runs tonight according to our Vegas Odds page. Tommy Joseph and Cameron Rupp are also $2.4K or less with ISOs greater than .280 vs LHP, though weather could potentially move that game off the board. Leadoff men Toles, Hernandez and Rickard are also $3K or less on DraftKings tonight, where Matt Joyce ($2.4K) also projects for some value atop the Oakland lineup tonight. He bounced back with a 141 wRC+ and .234 ISO vs RHP last year.

Chris Sale projected to be the least popular of the high priced pitchers tonight

Trea Turner and Bryce Harper are the only hitters projected for ownership rates north of 20% on either site tonight (DraftKings). On the pitching side, Chris Sale has favorable conditions in chilly Boston with a current ownership projection rate of 17.5% or less on either site. Perhaps paying up may be a way to lean more contrarian tonight. On the low end, consider Jharel Cotton, who costs just $6.7K on Fanduel and may be claimed in fewer than 5% of lineups. Steven Souza has some great numbers against Pineda (four HRs, 97.5 mph aEV on 13 batted balls) and is projected for very low ownership on DraftKIngs tonight. You can see all of the Projected Ownership numbers with a Premium Membership.

Cincinnati still the only major problem spot in terms of weather

A line of storms will be just about on top of Cincinnati by scheduled first pitch, so at this point at least a late start is almost a lock. There is still an opportunity for clearing in the area later on in the night, but Kevin can see them not trying to wait things out this early in the season. Pitchers have become a major risk in this game, and avoiding it altogether on a full slate makes sense given that it’s the only major problem spot around the league.

Kevin’s evening update should be posted shortly, but looking for conditions that could have the potential to affect games tonight, Texas is around 70 degrees, but predicted to drop close to 10 degrees over the course of the game. Wind potentially blowing around 15 mph out to center could favor power though. Quite the opposite may be true in Boston tonight thoug, where it’s only expected to be 40 degrees with an additional light wind blowing in from center, conditions which may favor Chris Sale, who is already one of the top projected pitchers tonight. See projected conditions for each park on our Weather page (linked below).

Paxton, Cotton, and Morton among affordable arms worth considering

Tonight’s slate is front loaded by top names like Sale, deGrom and Hill. While all three project potentially as strong as their price tag or better, perhaps you need an SP2 or would rather opt to spend on offense. The good news is that there are several cheaper pitchers with upside beyond their price tag as well. James Paxton had a small breakout in his strikeout rate (22.9%) last year and only Syndergaard through harder among starters, but he did have occasional contact issues and pitches against a powerful RH lineup in Houston. He costs $7.7K or less on either site. Jharel Cotton struck out 29.5% at AAA last year and 20.5% in a short major league stint. He has a wicked changeup and costs just $6.7K on FanDuel. The catch is that the Angels struck out just 16% of the time last season.Charlie Morton threw only 17.1 innings for the Phillies last year, but with increased velocity and striking out 26.8% of the batters he faced. This spring, he looked to have maintained that velocity and possibly even increased it. The Mariners have some pop in the middle of the order, but he costs just over $6K on either site. One last name to consider might be Wily Peralta. After missing the entire month of July, he returned to post an 11.0 SwStr% (20.3 K%) with a 2.92 ERA (estimators a bit higher, but below four) in 10 starts with increased velocity. He costs just $5.1K on DraftKings.

Jose Altuve and Mark Trumbo top Rotogrinders Projections tonight

Rotogrinders Projections favor Jose Altuve and Mark Trumbo as the top hitters tonight as they flip flop the #1 and #2 spot on each site. Trumbo had just a 54 wRC+ vs LHP last year, but with a .212 ISO and he went deep last night. Altuve had a 141 wRC+ vs LHP, but faces an interesting young arm in James Paxton. Value hunters might look to Tommy Joseph on FanDuel ($2.0K), who projects for over 4 points per $1K of salary. He hammered LHP for a 140 wRC+, .281 ISO and Brandon Finnegan certainly had his trouble with RHBs (38.3 Hard% and 27 HRs). DraftKings projections like Matt Joyce ($2.4K) the most for value. Chris Sale, Jacob deGrom, and Rich Hill are in a virtual tie for the top pitching performance on either site.

Steven Souza is our BvP stud tonight with four HRs against Pineda

It may not seem like the most obvious fit because Steven Souza is about average against RHP and Michael Pineda has virtually no platoon split, but he RHB leads tonight’s slate with four HRs against the big righty. A look Baseball Savant’s batted ball chart in this matchup shows three that may have just made it spread around the outfield wall and one complete bomb to left center. In 19 career PA against Pineda, he has struck out six times, but has a massive 97.5 mph aEV on 13 recorded batted balls. Adrian Gonzalez (vs Trevor Cahill) and Giancarlo Stanton (vs Tanner Roark) each have three career HRs against the opposing pitcher tonight.

Yasmany Tomas has an 8.96% score on our HR Predictor tonight

If you used the Daily HR Predictor yesterday, it went one for three on its top picks and you may have come away with a minimally priced Joey Gallo bomb. Tonight there are three more players with a 7% or higher projection, including Gary Sanchez (7.72%), who has not started well at all and Yasmany Tomas (8.96%), who torched LHP last year (186 wRC+, 46.9 Hard%). Though he elevated just 24% of batted balls, Matt Moore has just a 37.7 GB% over the last two seasons, which projects well for some solid contact. With the caveat of an extremely small sample size, Trey Mancini (14.44%) may be a low cost Oriole to take note of. J.A. Happ is a fly ball pitcher predicted for regression this year.

Joey Votto one of five batters with 164 wRC+ or better (since 2015) vs pitcher handedness faced tonight

Although Gary Sanchez tops the list with a 207 wRC+ against opposing pitcher handedness tonight, he has looked completely lost in his first two games, frequently swinging through hittable mistakes. Paul Goldschmidt is not very far behind with a 184 wRC+ vs LHP since 2015. Next on the list are Joey Votto and Mike Trout (both at 170 wRC+). Bryce Harper (164 wRC+) is fifth with the only BABIP in the group below .350. Goldschmidt does have a regression worthy .446 BABIP against LHP, but absolutely smokes lefties with a 46.1 Hard%. All have an ISO between .240 and .280, except for Sanchez (.349). Votto appears to have the top matchup (as was a favorite of our Trendspotting article today) with Jared Eickhoff’s .348 wOBA allowed to LHBs in his career.

Mookie Betts not in Wednesday's lineup; Chris Young will play RF and bat 6th

Outside of Betts’ absence, there aren’t any real surprises with the Red Sox lineup. This offense is still very dangerous at home and they are absolutely playable as a tournament stack, but paying a premium for any of these bats in a relatively tough match-up with Jameson Taillon probably isn’t worthwhile. Mitch Moreland still provides solid value on FanDuel and DraftKings hitting out of the 5th spot, but it didn’t take either site long to hike up the price on Andrew Benintendi. Taillon finished his first dance in the big leagues with a solid 3.71 FIP and 1.12 WHIP, and as one of the best young arms in the game he’ll look to build on that success in 2017.

Brandon Finnegan allowed 27 HRs to RH bats in 133 IP last season

The Phillies RH bats towards the heart of the order absolutely have upside this evening, especially as low-cost GPP options. Brandon Finnegan allowed 27 HRs to RH bats last season, good for a 1.83 HR/9 rate, a number that jumped to 2.27 in Cincinnati, where he’ll be pitching tonight. The Phillies themselves certainly aren’t lefty mashers – they ranked 2nd to last in ISO against LHP last season, better than only Atlanta – but Finnegan’s issues keeping the ball in the yard puts guys like Maikel Franco, Tommy Joseph, Aaron Altherr and Cameron Rupp into play. Tommy Joseph is arguably the most intriguing of the group – not only is he available for minimum price at FanDuel, but he finished a short 2016 with strong splits against LHP (.383 wOBA, .281 ISO) and it definitely doesn’t hurt matters that he’ll get to do battle in one of the more hitter friendly parks in the league. Franco also displayed solid power numbers against lefties last year (.238 ISO), which sets him up as one of the better mid-range plays at 3B. Weather could be an issue in Cincinnati on Wednesday, so make sure to stay up to date with Kevin Roth’s weather updates as well as the DFS Alerts App.

Mookie Betts, Brock Holt may not be available tonight due to illness

Both Betts and Holt are dealing with illnesses, so it’s very possible that neither are able to take the field tonight. We should have a lineup from the Bo Sox shortly, but they’ll likely give Chris Young a shot to man the outfield if both aren’t able to play.

Dan Straily's .211 BABIP vs. LHBs in 2016 set to spike

Dan Straily had easily the best season of his career in 2016, but a chunk of that was fueled by an unsustainable .211 BABIP vs. LH bats. He’s going to run into a few very tough lefties in Washington this evening, a few of which rank among the top overall plays at their respective positions. Bryce Harper’s full season numbers from last year don’t really jump off the page considering the price tag he warrants, but Harper absolutely tore the cover off the ball in the season’s first few months and with yet another opening day HR on Monday, he appears to be finding that form once again. He finished 2016 with a .204 ISO against RHP at home, and while he may not be the first bat you’ll want to pay up for in a cash game, he should absolutely be near (or at) the top of the list in GPPs. Daniel Murphy provides a little more safety with a similarly appealing ceiling – he finished last season with an elite .419 wOBA, .261 ISO and 163 wRC+ against RHP, and he actually carries a considerably lower salary than Harper on a few DFS outlets. Adam Eaton also sets up as a fine member of a Nationals stack, although his price on both major sites makes him somewhat of a tough sell in cash games. We also can’t forget about right-handed bat Trea Turner, who posted a .413 wOBA, .258 ISO and 159 wRC+ against RHP in 244 ABs last season. Straily actually allowed a higher HR rate to RH bats last season (1.79 HR/9 vs. RHs compared to 1.05 vs. LHs), so you can argue for Nationals bats from either side of the plate.