DFS Alerts
Tampa Bay finished 2016 with the 3rd highest K% against RHP
The Rays roster hasn’t changed a whole lot from the latter half of last season, which makes their match-up with Yankees starter Michael Pineda an interesting one from a DFS perspective. Tampa finished the year with the 3rd highest K% against RHP – 24.2% – which meshes well with Pineda’s strengths, most of which revolving around him missing bats. Pineda finished 2016 with a 2.84 FIP/3.19 xFIP on the road (4.75 FIP, 3.42 xFIP at home) to go along with a strong 27.1 K%, setting him up as one of the best upside targets at the SP spot this evening. He managed a lower GB% on the road (49.2% compared to 42.2% at home) and was also much better at keeping the ball in the yard while away from Yankee Stadium (23.3 HR/FB% at home, 9.6% on the road), so there is a lot to suggest that Pineda should get off on the right foot in 2017. There aren’t any notable surprises in the Rays Wednesday lineup, which is now confirmed on our Starting Lineups page.
Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals game postponed due to inclement weather
Today’s game has been postponed until tomorrow afternoon. Get any players from these two teams out of your lineups!
As reported by: St. Louis Cardinals official Twitter feed
Lorenzo Cain headlines Royals lineup against Hector Santiago and the Twins
Twins starting pitcher Hector Santiago allowed a .333 wOBA and a hard contact rate of 38.9% to right-handed hitters last season. Lorenzo Cain feasts on this type of pitcher and batting third today is a top option for those playing slates involving the early game. Salvador Perez is an excellent option at catcher batting fifth and don’t be afraid to include the LH bats of Mike Moustakas or Alex Gordon at the top of the order. The Twins are a all or nothing kind of offense and square off against homer prone RHP Ian Kennedy. Brian Dozier is the top option as usual for the Twins with Byron Buxton, Jason Castro, and Miguel Sano also worth a look.
As reported by: Phil Miller on Twitter Other tagged players: Salvador Perez, Brian Dozier Kevin Roth's Wednesday MLB weather sneak peek posted; ugly weather today
RotoGrinders.com Chief Meteorologist Kevin Roth has posted his weather sneak peek for the Wednesday MLB slate of games and it’s not looking particularly pretty. One game (Detroit at White Sox) has already been postponed and Roth has some concerns about the weather in St. Louis and Cincinnati as well. For a full breakdown and updates throughout the day, visit the RotoGrinders forums (linked below).
As reported by: Kevin Roth on RotoGrinders.com forums White Sox/ Tigers game PPD
This game will not run get all of your players from this game out of your lineups!
Get everything you need for tonight's massive MLB GPPs through the improved DFS Alerts App!
We’ve made even more of our content available via the RotoGrinders app this MLB season, with things like projected ownership, Consensus Value Rankings and improved lineup builder features. The Alerts App can be a one-stop shop for MLB DFS players – confirmed (and projected) lineups, projections, and advanced analysis is all available directly through the app itself. We’ve also made plenty of our premium content available through the app in addition to all of our free articles. Make sure to edit push notification settings as well – scratches and weather alerts will still go out as urgent alerts, but the vast majority of our strategy content is marked as important – to have that information pushed to your phone as well, turn on “MLB Important” in your notification settings. Best of luck to everyone tonight!
As reported by: Download the iPhone DFS Alerts App Bargain basement lineup options
We attempt to scour the lineups for low price options. We’re looking for cheap starters ($2.5K or less), who are at least league average bats in the top half of the lineup tonight. Cheap outfielders reign supreme tonight. DraftKings gives us Matt Joyce (141 wRC+ vs RHP last season) and Rickie Weeks (159 wRC+ vs LHP last season) for just $2.3K each. Travis Jankowski (105 wRC+ vs RHP) costs just $2.5K atop the San Diego lineup. Just out of range is Gyorkis Hernandez (115 wRC+ vs LHP) at $2.6K. On FanDuel, Weeks and Hernandez are both min-priced options, as is Mitch Haniger (94 wRC+ vs RHP), batting second for Seattle. Both Hunter Renfroe and Joey Gallo are higher risk players, batting further down in the order, but each showed up in the top three in our HR Predictor page today. Jankowski ($2.2K) and Joyce ($2.4K) are both slightly more expensive.
Other tagged players: Rickie Weeks, Travis Jankowski, Gorkys Hernandez, Hunter Renfroe, Joey Gallo
Logan Forsythe, Franklin Gutierrez offer solid value towards the top of the LAD lineup
Forsythe finds himself in the leadoff spot tonight against Clayton Richard, with Franklin Gutierrez slotting in at the clean up spot. Both are available at or under $2,800 on FanDuel which is criminally cheap in this match-up, and each provide excellent value over on DraftKings ($3,300 for Forsythe, $3,000 for Gutierrez). While Gutierrez is likely to get the hook once the Padres go to a RHP, he should still see a few ABs against Richard and given the prime lineup spot, he should have some run producing opportunities. Gutierrez finished 2016 with a strong .378 wOBA, .231 ISO and 51.6 hard% against LHP, while Forsythe was able to rack up an elite 31.4 Hd-Sft%. Outside of those two, we can confidently target Justin Turner on DraftKings at a measly $3,200, where he sets up as one of the premier value plays on the slate. Yasiel Puig and Yasmani Grandal are also worthwhile targets for what should be one of the highest scoring offenses of the night.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Lineups Page Other tagged players: Franklin Gutierrez, Justin Turner, Yasmani Grandal, Yasiel Puig No serious worries in Kevin's evening update
Most of the concern in St Louis should be post-game, while the risk of a passing shower in Texas is low, leaving DFS players with a fairly clean night tonight, a rarity in April where we’d be hard pressed to even find temperatures much below 60 degrees tonight. It’s one of the better early season forecasts we’ll see. Read Kevin’s full report on our Weather page, linked below.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page Posey most popular bat on our Projected Ownership page tonight
Buster Posey is the only hitter on the board projected to for 25% or better ownership on both sites tonight. For good reason too, facing a pitcher who gives up as much hard contact as Patrick Corbin. It might be a tough choice for some between he and Gary Sanchez, who leads our HR Predictor tonight and is also projected for 20% or greater ownership on either site. Potential pivots from Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Altuve tonight are Carlos Santana and Ryan Schimpf. Santana bats leadoff for an offense with one of the highest run projections tonight and Schimpf hits nothing but fly balls and even homered off Kershaw yesterday. Neither is projected to be owned at more than 7.5%. Projected Ownership is part of our Premium Content where you can see predicted percentages for both hitters and pitchers.
As reported by: Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Patrick Corbin, Gary Sanchez, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Altuve, Carlos Santana, Ryan Schimpf Patrick Corbin gave up the hardest contact on the slate in 2016
Patrick Corbin allowed the hardest contact on the today’s slate last season, including a 38.5 Hard%, 90.7 mph aEV, 9.3% Barrels/BBE, and 5.6% Barrels/PA. Combine that with a below average strikeout rate (18.7%) and potentially the most hitter friendly park outside of Coors and we have a recipe for offense with the Giants topping the board with a projected five runs scored tonight. Hunter Pence (106 wRC+, .217 ISO vs LHP since 2015) claims ownership of Corbin with four career HRs in 28 PA. He also led the team with a 95.4 mph aEV on balls in the air last season (fly balls and line drives). Buster Posey (141 wRC+, .180 ISO) was second (94.4 mph). A potential sleeper play tonight is Brandon Belt, batting second. He hit LHP well last year (143 wRC+, .212 ISO) and Corbin allowed hard contact equally to RH and LH batters. Gorkys Hernandez may be an average stick at best against LHP, but he’s a min-priced bat on FanDuel ($2.6K on DraftKings) at the top of lineup for what’s expected to be one of the most potent offenses tonight.
Other tagged players: Buster Posey, Patrick Corbin, Gorkys Hernandez, Brandon Belt Hisashi Iwakuma posted a career worst 4.43 SIERA and 17.6% K% in 2016
This Astros lineup is absolutely loaded with power and speed from top to bottom, making them an ideal stack to target in tournaments given their boom or bust nature. They tend to get into trouble against starting pitchers that keep the ball on the ground and have above average strikeout rates, which unfortunately for Hisashi Iwakuma, he possesses neither skill at this late stage of his career, as he posted a career-low 17.6% strikeout rate and 40.8% groundball rate while surrendering a less than impressive 32.6% hard hit percentage in the 2016 season. This sets up well for the Astros offense to be used as either one-offs or a full stack in tournaments this evening. Jose Altuve (153 wRC+, .395 wOBA, .196 ISO vs RHP in 2016) is an elite hitter that warrants strong consideration for both cash games and tournaments with his combination of power, speed, and contact rate, while Yulieski Gurriel is a great contact hitter and is just simply underpriced on both FanDuel and DraftKings if needing to save some salary. Another Astro bat that is underpriced is Carlos Beltran. He will bat fifth tonight in the heart of this Houston order and posted a .204 ISO against right-handed pitching last season, albeit he was definitively better against lefties. The remaining Houston hitters may end up being popular as well, both George Springer, Carlos Correa, and Alex Bregman remain firmly in play for Tuesday night’s slate.
Other tagged players: Carlos Beltran, Yulieski Gurriel
HR Predictor likes Gary Sanchez and a couple of cheaper options
Gary Sanchez leads all players tonight with a 188 wRC+ and is second with a .351 ISO against pitcher handedness faced and he is also the top dog on our HR Predictor (linked below) tonight, which gives him an 8.29% chance of knocking one out. The two names right behind might be a bit more surprising. Hunter Renfroe (7.06%) and Joey Gallo (6%) are both minimum priced on FanDuel. The San Diego lineup is not available yet, but he’s projected to be right in the middle of it. Gallo strikes out a ton, but has a ton of power and is batting seventh for the Rangers tonight, facing a pitcher who dealt with an elbow injury this spring. He may be toast if forced to face Andrew Miller though.
As reported by: Rotogrinders HR Predictor Other tagged players: Hunter Renfroe, Joey Gallo Lance McCullers leads all of tonight's pitchers with a 30.1 K% last season
Lance McCullers leads the slate with a 30.1 K% last season. He combined that with a 57.3 GB% and even though he walked far too many (12.8%), he may have the top upside on the board at a cost below $10K on either site. There are even some cheaper arms deserving consideration tonight. Sean Manaea had a double digit SwStr% in 15 of his last 18 starts and was below 9% just once. His 12.9% mark over that span matches McCullers’ rate for the season. There is certainly some strikeout upside in that arm this year. The Angels struck out barely over 16% of the time last season (MLB best), but have added a few higher K guys to the bottom of that lineup this winter. Maybe not with the upside as the other two, Tyler Anderson emerged as the best pitcher in the Colorado rotation last season. And yes, this is even with Jon Gray, who certainly has more strikeout upside, on the staff. His 14.9 K-BB% with a 50.9 GB% and just 4.0 Hard-Soft% essentially played home or away and even though Milwaukee is a hitter’s park, any vacation from Coors is Paradise for the Colorado pitching staff. Statcast gives him the lowest aEV on the board (85.1 mph) with a virtual tie for the lowest Barrel rates (3.2% per BBE, 2.1% per PA). The Brewers have some RH power, but strike out a ton. His $5.9K price tag on DraftKings deserves a double take.
Other tagged players: Tyler Anderson, Sean Manaea Jake Arrieta pitched with reduced velocity this spring
Jake Arrieta is the top priced pitcher on either site tonight and should be pitching in favorable conditions in a cool St Louis stadium with the wind blowing slightly in, but their may be some reason to consider fading him as well tonight. The strikeout rate (23.9%) was merely good (not great) last year, while the walk rate climbed to 9.6%. In fact, he’s just fourth in strikeout rate in 2016 among tonight’s pitchers. His 52.6 GB% was also a drop from the previous year, but still one of the top marks in the league, while his contact management was also top of the line (87.2 aEV, 2.5% Barrels/PA, 2.3 Hard-Soft%). Add all those weak ground balls to the excellent Chicago defense and you can partially explain a .241 BABIP, but expecting that to continue is another story. We’re also seeing a two mph drop in velocity this spring according to Fangraphs. Maybe he rectifies that tonight and he’s still probably a very good pitcher, but the high price tag demands a strong performance. That doesn’t mean we should look to roster St Louis bats against such a strong contact manager with a heavy ground ball lean, but LHBs got the ball in the air a bit more often against him last year (49.3 GB%) and Matt Carpenter (148 wRC+, .255 ISO vs RHP since 2015) should rarely be counted out.
As reported by: Fangraphs Other tagged players: Matt Carpenter