DFS Alerts
Rich Hill has thrown more than 90 pitches just once as a Dodger (including post-season)
Rich Hill threw 34.1 dominant innings for the Dodgers in the regular season, striking out 39 of 128 batters, allowing just seven runs after the trade. The problem was that he pitched sparingly and only once threw more than 90 pitches over those two months. While he has struck out 13 of 35 post-season batters, his two starts lasted a total of eight innings and 137 pitches. With a seven game series tied at one, Hill might have a bit longer leash and he is the lowest priced pitcher (or tied) on either site. There’s good reason for that however. The Cubs were the top offense in baseball vs LHP (116 wRC+). They’re .182 ISO and 10.5 BB% vs LHP were both third, while striking out an average 20.1% of the time. While Hill had little platoon split (wOBA below .250 to batters from both side), all four of his HRs were surrendered to RHBs, though nearly 80% of batters faced were from that side. He also had a 23.7 K-BB% against RHBs. He’s a fairly reasonable choice if choosing two pitchers is necessary. The top four in the Chicago order are still strong picks as they hit pitchers from either side very well and may see the bullpen by the fifth or sixth inning in this one. Kris Bryant (176 wRC+, .327 ISO) was one of the top bats in the majors vs LHP this season.
Other tagged players: Rich Hill
Aaron Sanchez is a high risk pitcher with the Blue Jays the only team at risk of elimination tonight
Aaron Sanchez is either tied for the lowest price tag ($9K FD) or second lowest ($9.6K DK) priced pitcher on the two game slate. While he’s facing a Cleveland offense that lost 35 points of wRC+ on the road (85 wRC+, .155 ISO, 21.7 K% on the road vs 120 wRC+, .188 ISO, 18.8 K% at home). The Indians are a stronger offense vs RHP – 103 wRC (7th) with a .175 ISO (9th) – and that seems more realistic than the enormous drop-off on the road. However, the real concern with Sanchez (3.00 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 54.4 GB%, 20.4 K%, 30.3 Hard%) is that this is an elimination game for the Blue Jays and only for the Blue Jays today, giving him very little room for error. He’s absolutely the highest risk pitcher on the board for that factor alone even though Toronto is a slight favorite (-125). Sanchez did have some pretty significant batted ball splits too. He held RHBs to a 61% GB rate, 27.9 Hard%, 7.4 HR/FB and 16.4 K-BB%. LHBs had a bit more success against him with a 47.6 GB%, 32.7 Hard%, 12.8 HR/FB and 10.4 K-BB% all closer to league average. In the same lineup, Crisp and Perez are really the only below average hitters (via wRC+), but where as Stroman had virtually no split yesterday giving us a nice contrarian play in Napoli (111 wRC+, .242 ISO), players may want to lean more towards the stronger LH bats today: Carlos Santana (148 wRC+, .285 ISO), Tyler Naquin (138 wRC+, .225 ISO) and Jason Kipnis (120 wRC+, .200 ISO) to name the top performers against RHP in the lineup.
Other tagged players: Aaron Sanchez, Tyler Naquin, Jason Kipnis, Mike Napoli, Roberto Perez, Coco Crisp Cleveland had the largest home/road splits in the majors, in Toronto to face Stroman in Game Three of ALCS
The Cleveland Indians had the largest home/road differential in baseball. Their 120 wRC+ at home dropped 35 points when on the road. They were the fifth worst road offense in baseball via wRC+ (85) with a .155 ISO and 21.7 K%, compared to .188 and 18.8% at home. While there is nothing all that special about Cleveland that would lead to such extreme splits, they have to be taken into consideration as they go on the road to Toronto for Game Three of the ALCS. On the two game slate, Marcus Stroman is the least expensive pitcher on either site, but potentially in the best spot, considering the Tribe’s struggles on the road. He has not pitched since the Wild Card game, in which he struck out six of of 22 Orioles, generating nine ground balls, which is essentially what he does. He led the majors in GB rate this season (60.1%) and a 22.7 K% in the second half of the season made him more productive from a daily fantasy standpoint as well. With Toronto down two games to none in the series, he may be dealing with the shortest leash and the Indians did have a 103 wRC+ vs RHP (7th) with a .175 ISO (9th), but Stroman kept batters from either side of the plate on the ground exactly 60.1% of the time, though he did allow 21 HRs (also almost exactly evenly split). Although only Coco Crips and Roberto Perez were below average hitters (via wRC+) vs RHP this season, Carlos Santana (148 wRC+, .285 ISO) and Tyler Naquin (138 wRC+, .225 ISO) were the clear top performers in this lineup, though Kipnis (120 wRC+, .200 ISO) and Mike Napoli (111 wRC+, .242 ISO) give them some competition in the power department. Considering that Stroman had such a small platoon split and RHBs did have a 32.2 Hard% at home against him this year, perhaps Napoli is the contrarian consideration here.
Other tagged players: Mike Napoli, Carlos Santana, Tyler Naquin, Jason Kipnis Kenta Maeda's weakness: Left-handed hitters. Chicago Cubs's strength: Left-handed power bats
Kenta Maeda has been “average” over the last month, entering tonight’s start with a SIERA of 3.75 over that period. A 3.75 SIERA is nothing to sneeze at, and Maeda’s 25% strikeout rate, 28% flyball rate, and 26% hard-contact allowed are all extremely respectable and could even be considered even elite. If Maeda has any glaring flaw, it would be how susceptible he has been versus LHBs this year, possessing an xFIP of 4.74 versus lefties and striking out LHBs at a much lower rate of 19%, compared to 30% versus RHBs. Unfortunately for Maeda, the Cubs have no shortage of capable left-handed hitters, beginning with Anthony Rizzo. Rizzo may be the best bat in the National League versus RHP, holding a wRC+ of 154 and an elite 0.273 ISO in at-bats versus RHP. Following Rizzo, Dexter Fowler and Ben Zobrist each hold wRC+ totals over 120 and Zobrist, in particular, has sneaky power (ISO of 0.182 versus RHP in 2016). These Cubs are the definition of high floor plays, considering that Anthony Rizzo and Ben Zobrist struck out 17% and 11% of their at-bats this year versus RHP, respectively. Vegas agrees with this assessment that the Cubs should score runs tonight, projecting the Cubs to score 4.45 runs.
As reported by: FanGraphs and RotoGrinders Starting Lineups Other tagged players: Anthony Rizzo, Dexter Fowler, Kenta Maeda
Jon Lester has a good matchup against a Dodgers team whose best hitters are left-handed
Jon Lester has been a stud over the last 30 days, including the playoffs, posting an elite SIERA of 3.08 over that period and striking out 26% of the batters he has faced. The matchup today versus the Dodgers favors the Cubs southpaw, considering that many of the Dodgers’s best hitters are left-handed. Over the last month of the season, two lefties, Joc Pederson and Josh Reddick, led the way for the Dodgers with wRC+ totals north of 160. Jon Lester, on the other hand, held lefties to an xFIP of 2.61, striking out 27% of the lefties he faced this season and only allowing left-handed hitters to elevate the ball in 22% of at-bats that ended in contact. The Dodgers only have two RHBs with wRC+ totals over 110, Yasmani Grandal and Yasiel Puig, and both batters struck out at least 20% of the time in at-bats versus lefties during the regular season. Vegas believes that Lester’s team is a -200 favorite for the win, according to the RG starting lineups page, adding just another reason to put Lester in your lineups this evening. We may not know the Dodgers lineup before lineups lock, but we do already know that the Dodgers have a dearth of capable RHBs to add to the lineup against Lester tonight.
As reported by: FanGraphs and RotoGrinders Starting Lineups Other tagged players: Yasiel Puig, Yasmani Grandal Using the bottom of the Jays lineup is a practical way to achieve lineup-differentiation today
Josh Tomlin has not been quite as bad as Happ over the last 30 days, but his 4.68 SIERA over that period is far from elite. Tomlin has been living off of inducing soft contact, limiting hitters hard contact to 25% over the last month. Still, his 9% k rate is incredibly low and an unfortunate trend to bring to the mound when facing a potent lineup like the one the Blue Jays will send to the plate today. On the season, Tomlin posted a worse xFIP versus RHB than LHB, finishing the year with an xFIP of 4.23 versus RHBs. His susceptibility to RHBs included a HR/9 of 2.03, mainly due to a 36% flyball rate and a strikeout rate below 17%. The usual trio of Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, and Jose Bautista will, of course, be in play against a RHP, all possessing wRC+ totals against RHBs of at least 125 this season. Still, these names will be inserted in the majority of lineups today and way to be contrarian on a miniature slate would be to use the Blue Jays batting at the bottom of the lineup. As far as upside is concerned, Michael Saunders and Russel Martin have ISOs of 0.205 and 0.173 versus RHP this year, respectively. Pairing Saunders and Martin with Donaldson and Encarnacion would be a way to differentiate lineups, while still getting a piece of the elite Jays power-bats.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Russell Martin, Edwin Encarnacion, Josh Donaldson, Josh Tomlin Mike Napoli and Brandon Guyer lead the way for the Indians today
Over the last month, including playoff appearances, J.A. Happ has not been as sharp as he was in July (2.70 xFIP, finishing the month of September with a bloated xFIP of 5.14. Over the last 30 days, Happ only struck out 15% of the batters he faced and allowed a hard contact rate of 29%, coupled with a 35% flyball rate. Happ has allowed RHBs to elevate the ball at a higher rate than LHBs this year, giving up a flyball rate of 37% on the season versus righties. The Indians, on the other hand, have four batters in the lineup with wRC+ totals of at least 115 this year versus LHP, including Coco Crisp, Mike Napoli, Jose Ramirez, and Brandon Guyer. Of this group, Brandon Guyer is the hitter with the highest floor (wRC+ o f 163 and a 12% k rate versus LHP), and Mike Napoli is the hitter with the greatest upside (ISO of 0.189 versus LHP on the season). While Carlos Santana and Francisco Lindor are elite hitters and will be batting from the right side against Happ, they are both much better from the left side of the plate and possess wRC+ totals around 100 against LHP.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Brandon Guyer Corey Kluber looked healthy vs Boston, Toronto strikes out 22.4% of the time vs RHP
Players continuing yesterday’s two game slate have likely already made their choices in this game. Corey Kluber may have been more attractive with potentially a longer leash than Game Five elimination starters, he’s on equal footing with Lester and whoever the Dodgers decide to start. In fact, Lester is probably the top pitcher on the slate (omitting Kershaw) as a LHP facing the Dodgers, but Kluber has his upside as well. He looked very healthy in his start against the Red Sox, going seven shutout innings with seven strikeouts and stays home to face a Toronto offense that strikes out a bit more than 22% of the time on the road and vs RHP, though they did hammer RHPs for a 15.0 HR/FB. Russell Martin (101 wRC+, .173 ISO vs RHP) has the most success against Kluber in a small sample with two HRs and a 96 mph aEV on five recorded batted balls in 10 PAs. While Donaldson (156 wRC+, .272 ISO vs RHP), Encarnacion (132 wRC+, .176 ISO vs RHP) and Bautista (126 wRC+, .220 ISO vs RHP) are all viable on a mini-slate, Kluber dominated RHBs this year (.266 wOBA, 29.2 K%, 26.8 Hard%), though he did allow 13 HRs. Leadoff man Ezequiel Carrera had just a 71 wRC+ and .103 ISO vs RHP this year and a 78 wRC+ vs RHP for his career.
As reported by: Baseball Savant Other tagged players: Russell Martin, Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, Ezequiel Carrera Scherzer has now allowed 33 HR on the year, after being taken deep twice in Game 1
Max Scherzer didn’t have his best stuff in Game 1, but it wasn’t an uncharacteristic performance, as most of the damage against him came from two home runs. His biggest weakness this season has continued to be the long ball (1.22 HR/9). Scherzer still only gave up five hits in six innings while striking out five batters, so if he is able to keep the ball in the park, he will likely end up being the highest scoring pitcher on this slate. All in all, Scherzer had a stellar season, as he posted a 3.05 SIERA and 31.5% strikeout rate while inducing a swinging strike 15.3% of the time (the highest mark of his career). The main concern in this spot is that the Dodgers’ lineup is loaded with left-handed hitters, which Scherzer has had a significantly more difficult time with this season, as evidenced by his suppressed 25.5% strikeout rate and inflated 9.1% walk rate. Those numbers would be more than acceptable for most pitchers, but they are certainly not Scherzer-like. Admittedly, the Dodgers still are at a disadvantage in this matchup against Scherzer, but they could make for some intriguing tournament plays. Scherzer will most likely be the highest owned pitcher on the slate, so it’s definitely possible to leverage that ownership by targeting a couple of Dodgers’ power hitters. Corey Seager (156 wRC+, .400 wOBA, .223 ISO vs RHP), Joc Pederson (146 wRC+, .386 wOBA, .278 ISO vs RHP), and Yasmani Grandal (.268 ISO vs RHP) would be top left-handed batters to consider here. Justin Turner (146 wRC+, .386 wOBA, .278 ISO vs RHP) swings from the right side of the plate but has been a reverse splits hitter throughout his career. He also exhibited his power in Game 1, mashing a pitch into the stands off of Scherzer.
Other tagged players: Corey Seager, Joc Pederson, Justin Turner, Yasmani Grandal
Wind gusts blowing in from LF in Washington Thursday night
Kevin has given us his forecast for the two game slate on Thursday and Friday. While rain is not expected for either game, he does note there may be wind gusts up to 20 mph blowing in from LF in Washington. It’s not a significant boost for Rich Hill or major detriment to Washington RH power, but it is something to at least consider. Strong winds did impact an ALDS game in Boston recently. Read Kevin’s report on our Weather Page and follow him on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page On a two game slate, Rich Hill may have the least room for error in an elimination game
Rich Hill is the third highest priced pitcher on either site, right around $9K and normally, that would be a bargain for the type of pitcher he’s been this year. In 34.1 innings for the Dodgers, he had a 1.83 ERA, 2.07 FIP and an enormous 26.6 K-BB%. While the Nationals did get to him for four runs in 4.1 innings, three of those runs came on a most unexpected HR from Jose Lobaton (Hill allowed four HRs all season) and he still struck out seven of the 22 batters he faced. The interesting issue here is that on a two game slate, the other game is Game One of a seven game series, where the starters will likely have a longer leash than in an elimination game. Hill likely has the least amount of room to make mistakes in this elimination game, making him the highest risk pitcher on this slate. You could say the same about Scherzer, but he’s also Max Scherzer being managed by Dusty Baker. The Nationals had a 105 wRC+ vs LHP, tied for fifth best in the majors with a .196 team ISO that was second. Jason Werth has looked good in this series and leads the offense with a 172 wRC+ and .298 ISO and southpaws. Daniel Murphy was the second best bat in the lineup against LHP (139 wRC+, .219 ISO).
Other tagged players: Jayson Werth, Daniel Murphy Giants implied run total has been holding steady at 3.6 runs before crucial Game 4 matcup
John Lackey has had a good season overall, boasting a 3.35 ERA that is accompanied by a 3.83 SIERA and 24.1% strikeout rate. Lackey also brings a ton of postseason experience to the table in this matchup. In 23 career playoff appearances, he has a 3.11 ERA with a strikeout rate of 18.8%. If aiming to fade Clayton Kershaw (which is not recommended), Lackey is the clear best pivot option. During the regular season, he did struggle significantly more with left-handed batters, allowing a .303 wOBA and 34.1% hard contact rate. Though, he has kept the ball on the ground much more frequently with 46.0% ground ball rate to lefties. The Giants do draw a fairly difficult matchup against Lackey, but it’s certainly more favorable than last night’s matchup against Jake Arrieta, meaning it is viable to target some Giants’ lefties in this spot. Brandon Belt (136 wRC+, .370 wOBA, .193 ISO vs RHP), Brandon Crawford (.180 ISO vs RHP), and Connor Gillaspie (.183 ISO vs RHP) are the best individual options to consider outside of a full stack.
Other tagged players: Brandon Crawford, Conor Gillaspie, John Lackey Cubs were the best offense in baseball vs LHP (116 wRC+, 10.5 BB%), Matt Moore had 11.1 BB% with Giants
Matt Moore finished the season with 15.2 innings of two run ball in which he struck out 17 of 57 batters and, perhaps most importantly, walked just two batters. However, those starts were against the Dodgers and Rockies, two of the worst offense against LHP in baseball and followed another outing against the Dodgers in which he allowed six runs in one inning. A cool AT&T Park is also in his favor tonight, one of the most pitcher friendly environments in baseball, even if it did not suppress the long fly balls and run scoring last night. Factors against him include the best offense in baseball vs LHP (116 wRC+, 10.5 BB%, 14.9 HR/FB) and his 11.1 BB% since being traded to the Giants. His walk rate has been under 9% in just four of his 12 starts. If Moore struggles to throw strikes here, it could be a very quick evening for him with all hands on deck in the bullpen. Unfortunate omissions from the Chicago lineup are Contreras and Soler, but the top four in the lineup (including Rizzo) all have a wRC+ above 120 against LHP this season with only Zobrist (.154) having an ISO below .185. Bryant is probably the overall chalk bat tonight, pulverizing LHP (176 wRC+, .327 ISO), but Russell (113 wRC+, .245 ISO) and Ross (148 wRC+, .245 ISO) are interesting pivots off Dodger bats at their position as well, both showing surprising power against LHP this year.
Other tagged players: Matt Moore, Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist, Addison Russell, David Ross Kershaw owns an insane 30.9% K-BB% and 2.16 xFIP at home this season
The Dodgers will turn to Clayton Kershaw on short rest in tonight’s Game 4 elimination game. It’s a little concerning that they would push Kershaw on short rest after only allowing him to surpass 100 pitches in one outing after returning from the disabled list. In the last two seasons, Kershaw has a ridiculous 1.44 ERA with a strikeout rate of 35.1% at home. Kershaw is still the clear play at pitcher today in all formats, even with the concern about his ability to pitch deep into this contest and pitch in the postseason in general. As far as the Nationals, they draw the toughest matchup on the board against Kershaw in pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium. Kershaw held both left and right-handed hitters under a .230 wOBA during the regular season making it is easy to avoid all Nationals hitters in this matchup, especially on DraftKings where they are all priced to face Julio Urias.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Julio Urias Joe Ross pitched just 9.2 innings in three starts after injury layoff, LHBs have a .354 wOBA, 35.9 Hard% against him
Theoretically, Joe Ross is a poor option for the Nations facing a lefty heavy offense with a 15.9 HR/FB and 109 wRC+ vs RHP because he has an enormous split difference. For his career, he’s held RHBs to a .240 wOBA with a 54.3 GB% and 23.9 Hard%. The Dodgers have just one RHB in their lineup and Justin Turner hits RHP better than LHP (146 wRC+, .258 ISO this year, 132 wRC+, .174 ISO career). LHBs have a .354 wOBA, 36.4 GB%, and 35.9 Hard% against Ross, although his 16 career HRs allowed are split evenly at eight and eight. As he returned the second half of September after a month and a half layoff to throw just 9.2 innings over three starts, it would seem fairly likely that one way or the other the Nationals bullpen will be active early in this game. A smart manager would then turn the Dodgers around as they experienced a 37 point drop in wRC+ when having to face LHP. However, the first time through the lineup, it’s advantage Dodgers as Utley (111 wRC+, .152 ISO) and Reddick (138 wRC+, .163 ISO) are the only batters in the lineup that failed to have both a wRC+ above 120 and an ISO of .185 or higher against RHP this year and neither missed by much. Corey Seager leads the charge with a 156 wRC+ vs RHP this year, Joc Pederson with a .278 ISO. The Dodgers are projected for 4.3 runs tonight, the highest total on either site.
Other tagged players: Joc Pederson, Chase Utley, Josh Reddick, Joe Ross