DFS Alerts
Cincinnati is a power friendly park, hosting two of the bottom offenses in the NL last year.
Cincinnati is a nearly run neutral, but very power friendly park, hosting two of the worst offenses in the National League last year. Cincinnati boasts an Opening Day starter, who only managed a 16.6 K% mostly out of the bullpen last year. For his career, RHBs (.330 wOBA) have been a bit better against Scott Feldman than LHBs (.321). The batter most worth looking at here is Tommy Joseph, who had a 101 wRC+, but .235 ISO and 37.7 Hard% vs RHP last season, putting the ball in the air 45.7% of the time. Unfortunately, he’s batting sixth, but he’s solidly in bargain territory on FanDuel ($2.1K) for you Kershaw buyers today. On the other side, Jeremy Hellickson was perfectly average in most ways for the Phillies last year. He’s not a terrible choice at less than $7K in a decent spot for those who would rather spend on offense, but the upside is somewhat limited. He has been a bit HR prone on occasion, spreading them out evenly to righties and lefties in his career. While Joey Votto (169 wRC+, .254 ISO vs RHP last season) is rarely a poor choice, Adam Duvall (104 wRC+, .260 ISO) showed tremendous power against same handed pitching last year. Scott Schebler (109 wRC+, .171 ISO) is the other batter with some pop in this lineup. He costs $3.6K on DraftKings.
Other tagged players: Scott Feldman, Jeremy Hellickson, Joey Votto, Adam Duvall, Scott Schebler
Two reverse split righties face each other in Baltimore
Kevin Gausman has notable reverse splits pitcher (RHBs .349 wOBA against him last two years), which often makes Toronto a very difficult lineup for him to navigate. In three starts against them last season, he allowed six HRs in 15.1 innings (72 batters). He’s still a good pitcher, as a 23 K% with an ERA and most estimators under four in the AL East is not easy to pull off, but Josh Donaldson smokes same handed pitching (156 wRC+, .272 ISO, 41 Hard% last year), while Jose Bautista (126 wRC+, .220 ISO, 41 Hard%) remained proficient as well. In fact, Kendrys Morales is the only batter in the top seven who was below average vs RHP last season. Marco Estrada is a BABIP specialist, who generates lots of fly balls (39 popups) with an above average strikeout rate (22.8%). There should be some skepticism surrounding a .234 BABIP last year though. He faces a lineup with a 16.8 HR/FB vs RHP last year. RHBs have actually hit him a bit better too over the last two seasons (.293 wOBA, but a 36.4 Hard%). Consider Mark Trumbo, who actually led this offense with a 146 wRC+ and .300 ISO vs RHP last season.
Other tagged players: Kevin Gausman, Jose Bautista, Kendrys Morales, Marco Estrada, Mark Trumbo Junior Guerra had last years largest ERA/SIERA separation on the afternoon slate
Junior Guerra has the largest gap on the main afternoon slate between his ERA (2.81) and estimators (4.42 SIERA). No other pitcher has even a run gap from their SIERA. Will a Colorado offense with just an 84 wRC+ and 24.1 K% on the road last year and no new players in the lineup today be able to take advantage of it. Milwaukee may not be Coors, but it’s still a hitter’s park and though Guerra held opposing LHBs to a .271 wOBA, this was the result of a .222 BABIP. They had a 38.9 Hard% against him. Charlie Blackmon upped his road game significantly last season (144 wRC+/.250 ISO). Unfortunately, Colorado bats are nearly priced for Coors Field today, but he may still hold some value here. He’s the only LHB in the lineup who was an above average hitter on the road last season. The other side of this matchup is not quite as clear. Jon Gray had a 26 K% last season (5th on the afternoon slate) and the Brewers return much of the same players who struck out 28.5% against RHP as a team last year. While Gray is reasonably priced on either site with significant upside here, the Rockies are downplaying a foot injury that knocked him out a recent start this spring. He remains an interesting GPP play. It should be noted that noted Korean league crusher is batting second and costs only $2.2K on FanDuel in his return to the majors.
Other tagged players: Junior Guerra, Jon Gray, Eric Thames Andrew Benintendi headlines powerful Red Sox lineup as they host Pirates
Youngster Andrew Benintendi is much too cheap batting second in this powerful Red Sox lineup and has a solid match up facing Gerrit Cole and the Pirates. He had a .416 wOBA and .247 ISO in limited action in 2016. Jackie Bradley Jr. batting seventh is also intriguing and we can also target some of the Red Sox bats at the top of the lineup like Mookie Betts, Hanley Ramirez, and Xander Bogaerts with Betts the best option of that group. Mitch Moreland takes over for David Ortiz and has some sleeper potential batting fifth in this lineup at a very reasonable price. Cy Young winner Rick Porcello takes the mound for the Red Sox but there are better SP options out there on this slate. Josh Bell and Gregory Polanco are the only two bats worth a look. Adam Frazier is reasonably priced and leading off but his upside is limited.
As reported by: Rob Bradford on Twitter Other tagged players: Rick Porcello, Jackie Bradley, Gregory Polanco
Noah Syndergaard one of top SP options of the day as Mets host the Braves
Outside of Clayton Kershaw, Noah Syndergaard is probably the top SP option on the slate as he faces an anemic Braves offense lacking power. He’ll be highly owned, but is a safe option whose only downfall is his inability to hold runners when they get on base. That puts Braves hitters like Ender Inciarte and Dansby Swanson on the DFS radar due to their base swiping ability.The Mets face Julio Teheran who struggles when he pitches on the road. LH bats Curtis Granderson (batting 4th) and Jay Bruce (batting 6th) are the top options from the Mets side of the plate with Jose Reyes (1st), Asdrubal Cabrera (2nd), and Neil Walker (5th) viable stack options.
As reported by: David Lennon on Twitter Other tagged players: Curtis Granderson, Jay Bruce, Ender Inciarte Nationals have one of best match ups of the day facing Edinson Volquez and the Marlins
Opening day (if you ignore the three games played yesterday) of MLB is upon us and the Nationals will kick things off hosting Edinson Volquez and the Marlins. It’s a plus match up for the Nationals and they have one of the highest run totals of the day. The three left-handed bats in the middle of their order (Adam Eaton batting 2nd, Bryce Harper 3rd, and Daniel Murphy 4th) are all in prime spots to produce. Trea Turner leads off and rounds out what could be a very profitable 1 through 4 stack for Washington as Volquez allowed a wOBA of .340+ to both sides of the plate last season. Stephen Strasburg takes the mound for the Nationals and while he is volatile, he definitely has the upside you are looking for in your SP. Giancarlo Stanton is the only bat from the Marlins worth a look as he has performed well against Strasburg in the past.
As reported by: Chelsea Janes on Twitter Other tagged players: Stephen Strasburg, Giancarlo Stanton Chance of rain in St. Louis tonight, Kevin Roth has the CHC/STL game as YELLOW
What a great day for baseball! Outside of a minor threat of rain in St. Louis, everything is all clear in the other two game games on the slate. Be sure to check out Kevin’s full forecast on the MLB Weather page linked below. Also, don’t forget to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, as he will be posting updates and answering questions there all season long, @KevinRothWx.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Page
Andrew Benintendi likely to end up hitting 2nd in potent Boston lineup
Benintendi should be one of the more exciting young players to watch over the course of 2017, and he appears to be locked into a spot towards the top of the Red Sox lineup, something that’ll provide him with plenty of run producing opportunities. He racked up just 77 ABs against RHP in 2016, but finished the year with excellent splits (.416 wOBA, .247 ISO, 160 wRC+, 34.4 hard%) and figures to rake against right-handers again this year. Gerrit Cole had been one of the NL’s best arms prior to 2016, when he struggled with command while healthy after missing a good chunk of the season due to elbow issues (three DL stints). Cole allowed a .371 wOBA to LH bats last season but was a little unlucky with a .419 BABIP, something that should normalize this season assuming his health issues are a thing of the past. Benintendi is priced at just $2,900 on FanDuel and $3,700 on DK, making him one of the better $/point plays in the outfield on Monday.
Dodgers, Phillies, Reds bats provide plenty of Opening Day value
Maybe it’s the fact that the Padres hadn’t announced an Opening Day starter until Tuesday, but the LA Dodgers are priced far too low on both major sites given their draw with Jhoulys Chacin in Los Angeles. The Dodgers finished 2016 with the second best wRC+ (109), 6th best OPS (.772) and 7th best ISO (.177) against RHP, so there isn’t a good reason for the heart of their order to be priced as value plays. Adrian Gonzalez, Yasmani Grandal, Logan Forsythe and Joc Pederson are all priced at $2,800 on FanDuel, making each of them elite $/point options on FanDuel. Corey Seager and Justin Turner are priced appropriately on FanDuel, but they are both still strong plays for what should be one of the highest scoring offenses of the day. On DraftKings, Seager and Yasiel Puig are the only Dodger bats priced above $4K, so we’ll want to load up on LA there as well, especially at catcher with Yasmani Grandal sitting at just $3,400. Bats in the PHI/CIN game also provide ample value with Scott Feldman and Jeremy Hellickson facing off. Odubel Herrera is the top overall play on the Philly side, but he’s still priced modestly on both major sites and has fared significantly better against RHP over the course of his career (.359 wOBA, 124 wRC+ in 2016 vs. RHP compared to .275/68 vs. LHP). Maikel Franco is priced at just $2,900 on FanDuel where he provides excellent value, but his $4,200 price tag on DK isn’t quite as appealing. If Cesar Hernandez finds himself in the leadoff spot on Monday afternoon, he’ll also be a strong punt play industry wide. Last but not least on the Philly side is Tommy Joseph, who is an excellent GPP option on FanDuel at just $2,100 given the power upside he provides (.235 ISO vs. RHP in 2016). Speaking of power upside, Michael Saunders would also be a punt option if he’s able to hit in the top six of the Philly order on Opening Day. As for the Reds, they’re an intriguing team target up and down the lineup. Joey Votto, Billy Hamilton and Adam Duvall are all elite options against Hellickson, with Jose Peraza being one of the sneakier targets on the Cincinnati side thanks to his ability to rack up stolen bases. It’s looking very much like Peraza will slot into one of the top two slots in the batting order.
Other tagged players: Yasmani Grandal, Justin Turner, Logan Forsythe, Odubel Herrera, Maikel Franco, Tommy Joseph, Cesar Hernandez, Joey Votto, Billy Hamilton, Jose Peraza, Adam Duvall Hunting for Opening Day value at SP
Opening Day typically consists of many of the games best high-end arms, but we’ll also see several potential value targets toe the rubber on Monday. It’s a little odd to see guys like Scott Feldman, Edinson Volquez and Jeremy Hellickson getting the ball for their respective teams to kick off the year, and while they are certainly guys we’ll want to pick on with opposing bats, a few value options on Monday’s slate possess some GPP intrigue. Assuming Jon Gray gets the nod for the Rockies in Milwaukee, he’ll be one of the top mid-range/punt plays at the SP spot. Gray sits at just $7,800 on DraftKings and $8,200 on FanDuel, giving him a nice ceiling on the road against a Brewers team that finished dead last in all of baseball in K% (25.8%) and 27th in wRC+ (87) against RH pitching. Both Jeremy Hellickson and Scott Feldman are also potential punt plays that will be facing off with one another in Cincinnati. Feldman is priced at or near the minimum across the industry, and if he’s able to pick up a cheap win with a couple strikeouts to boot, he’d be a nice option on multi-SP sites that would allow you to load up on bats. Paying down at pitcher isn’t a necessity on Monday – there is plenty of value to be had with hitters, mainly on the Dodgers, Phillies and Reds – but it’s certainly a viable way to differentiate in GPPs.
Other tagged players: Scott Feldman, Jeremy Hellickson Kershaw, Syndergaard, Strasburg all in plus spots on Monday, but Kershaw is the clear top option
Monday’s Opening Day slate is right around the corner, and we’ll be treated to a few of the best arms in the game. While it typically goes without saying that Kershaw is the top option at SP anytime he takes the hill, it’s worth pointing out that he’s still a cut above the rest even with Noah Syndergaard, Stephen Strasburg, Justin Verlander and 2016 Cy Young winner Rick Porcello all toeing the rubber on Monday. We still don’t have access to Vegas lines as of this writing, but Kershaw should end up as the biggest favorite on the board against a Padres team he absolutely dominated last season – he allowed just four hits and one walk in 16.0 IP with 23 Ks and no runs allowed, picking up the win in both starts. San Diego hasn’t added much in the way of pop to their lineup this season, and look to be a team we’ll target with arms regularly. Also, it doesn’t hurt that Kershaw will get the ball at home, where he held opposing hitters to an absurd .161 wOBA over the course of 2016. The bottom line here is that if you’re paying a premium for pitching on opening day, make it a point to roster Kershaw. Noah Syndergaard is also in an appealing spot against the Braves at home, and it’s likely he’s a big favorite himself, but he’s not cheap enough to warrant pivoting off Kershaw. The other big name arm that’s likely to get recognition on Monday is Stephen Strasburg, who does find himself priced a tier below the other top options, making him a strong GPP target against Miami at home. Strasburg picked up wins in both starts with the Marlins last season, striking out 17 over 14 IP while allowing three earned runs. All three of these guys are squarely in play, but we’ll absolutely want to pivot up to Kershaw in cash games and targeting him heavily in tournaments is also a more than viable strategy.
Other tagged players: Noah Syndergaard, Stephen Strasburg Julio Urias has just a 13.9% K-BB% versus RHB, compared to 22.4% against LHB
Julio Urias will be making his first career postseason start tonight in Game 4 of the NLCS. While the lack of playoff experience is a concern, he did pitch well in a relief appearance against the Mets in the NLDS. Urias had a tremendous season for a rookie (3.88 SIERA, 3.17 FIP), but the Dodgers will be quick to pull him if he struggles early. Unfortunately, it will take a near perfect outing from him if he is going to last long enough to be eligible for the win, making his fantasy viability extremely limited. The Cubs looked lost at the plate last night, and sometimes struggle against left-handed pitching, but they should come to play with a sense of urgency in this matchup already being down 2-1 in the series. This game is basically set as a pick ‘em, meaning both teams are projected to score 3.5 runs. While the matchup isn’t ideal for Chicago, they are facing a rookie left-handed pitcher in Urias that may not make it past the fifth inning. During the regular season, the Cubs were ranked second in team wOBA against left-handed pitching providing us several bats to consider in this lineup, primarily Kris Bryant (176 wRC+, .438 wOBA, .327 ISO vs LHP), Dexter Fowler (137 wRC+, .380 wOBA, .187 ISO vs LHP), Ben Zobrist (129 wRC+, .367 wOBA, .154 ISO vs LHP), and Javier Baez (124 wRC+, .359 wOBA, .164 ISO vs LHP)
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Dexter Fowler, Ben Zobrist, Javier Baez, Julio Urias Marco Estrada has gone at least eight innings with just one more fly ball than grounder in two post-season starts
During the season, and for his entire career, Marco Estrada has been an extreme fly ball pitcher, who’s ERA (3.48) ran well below his estimators (4.15 to 4.64) through a suppressed BABIP (.234), though things were a bit closer to standard in the second half of the season (4.27 ERA, .285 BABIP). He’s been a different starter in two post-season starts, going at least eight innings in each, striking out 12 of 57 batters (21%), but with just one more fly ball (18) than ground ball (17). While the gap between his ERA and estimators made him a over-priced pitcher for most of the regular season, when the other choices are two rookie pitchers on short leashes and Lackey against the lefty-swatting Dodgers, Estrada, even with his team on the brink of elimination, might be the most trust-worthy option on the board tonight against a Cleveland offense that has a major drop off away from home (85 wRC+, .155 ISO, 21.7 K% on the road vs 120 wRC+, .188 ISO, 18.8 K% at home). Estrada did not have much of a split this season, but RHBs actually had 27 points of wOBA (.293) and a higher hard hit rate (36.4%) by 10 points. This brings us to Mike Napoli (111 wRC+, .242 ISO vs RHP) as a potential contrarian play again today. He came up big in a similar situation against Stroman on Monday and only Carlos Santana (144 wRC+, .285 ISO) has shown more power vs RHP, while Tyler Naquin (138 wRC+, .225 ISO) and Jason Kipnis (120 wRC+, .200 ISO) have been the two other strongest bats vs RHP this year.
Other tagged players: Mike Napoli, Carlos Santana, Tyler Naquin, Jason Kipnis Ryan Merritt has not struck out more than 16% of batters at any stop above A-ball
Ryan Merritt is one of two rookie starters today, but at least Urias has some major league experience and a strong pedigree. Merritt has one major league start and has struck out just six of 37 major league batters. In over 300 innings of AA and AAA experience since the start of 2015, he’s had a strikeout rate below 16% at every single stop and stint. Nearly immaculate control is the reason he’s even made it to the majors. The Blue Jays had a 108 wRC+ and .185 ISO at home this season, but were just league average (100 wRC+, .168 ISO) vs LHP to the surprise of most people this year. Aside from having the advantage of being an unknown quantity, the Jays should have a major edge here against the soft-tossing rookie. Encarnacion (142 wRC+, .275 ISO vs LHP) and Donaldson (150 wRC+, .240 ISO vs LHP) have to be considered two of the top bats on the board today, while Melvin Upton (132 wRC+, .258 ISO vs LHP) and Jose Bautista (103 wRC+, .209 ISO) are the only other batter in the lineup that can boast either an ISO above .165 (Troy Tulowitzki) or wRC+ above 109 (Darwin Barney) vs LHP.
Other tagged players: Josh Donaldson, Ryan Merritt, Melvin Upton, Jose Bautista, Troy Tulowitzki, Darwin Barney Arrieta has a significantly higher 13.6% BB% versus LHB but ultimately posted similar overall numbers against RHB and LHB this season
Jake Arrieta didn’t have a great regular season in comparison to his stellar 2015 season, but he looked sharp in his first start of the postseason. Arrieta struck out five batters in six innings of work against the Giants in San Francisco. He will again look to twirl a gem on the road in Dodgers Stadium. Of the four starting pitching options on this slate, Arrieta is the one pitcher that we should not be worried about getting pulled early, as there is a good chance that the other three starting pitchers don’t even make it five innings. The Dodgers may have the advantage of playing at home, but they came into the day as owners of the lowest run projection of the four teams on this slate. That has since changed as the line has continued to move in favor of Los Angeles. The Dodgers hitters draw an obviously difficult matchup against Arrieta, who held both left and right-handed hitters under a .280 wOBA during the regular season. They are rolling out seven left-handed hitters to combat the strengths of Arrieta, but the other three offenses on this slate are clearly the more viable targets making Dodgers bats easy to avoid.
As reported by: FanGraphs