DFS Alerts
Clayton Kershaw will start game 4 against the Nationals
Kershaw will be facing off against Joe Ross on short rest, and will clearly be the top overall option at the pitcher spot this evening.
Angel Pagan scratched from Giants lineup
Pagan has been scratched from San Francisco’s lineup Monday night due to back spasms. Gregor Blanco will replace him in left field and bat eighth. Conor Gillaspie also gets the bump up to the five-hole in the Giants order.
As reported by: Jayson Stark Other tagged players: Gregor Blanco, Conor Gillaspie
Madison Bumgarner has six career post-season starts of at least seven shutout innings
Madison Bumgarner is one of the most prolific post-season pitchers of all time. He has six career post-season starts of at least seven shutout innings and has gone at last seven innings in each of his last eight of them, striking out 83 (22.2%) of the 374 batters he’s faced overall in the post-season. It will probably also help him that the game will take place in San Francisco with an expected temperature around 60 degrees. Even with the Giants in an elimination game, you can be sure that he will be given every chance to get deep in this game. The Cubs were the best offense in the majors vs LHP this season with a 116 wRC+ though (five points higher than the second best Diamondbacks). They had a 10.5 BB% and 14.9 HR/FB against them, two issues not likely to plague Bumgarner under these conditions. He’s the top pitcher on the board and priced as such. Cubs bats are difficult to consider here, projected for just three runs, though Kris Bryant has hammered LHP this year (176 wRC+, .327 ISO). Fowler (137 wRC+, .187 ISO) and Zobrist (129 wRC+, .154 ISO) are also better from the right-hand side.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page Other tagged players: Kris Bryant, Ben Zobrist, Dexter Fowler
20-25 mph gusts blowing in from LF at Fenway
Kevin notes only one interesting issue in today’s short weather forecast. Fenway is looking at 10-15 mph wins with gusts up to 20-25 mph blowing in from LF at Fenway. That’s certainly interesting to note with Josh Tomlin on the mound. He allowed 22 HRs to RHBs this season. You can find Kevin’s report on our forum today and be sure to follow him on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates.
As reported by: Rotogrinder's Forum Indians have the second-highest implied run total of slate (4.3), only lower than the Red Sox
Clay Buchholz had one of his worst seasons as a major league pitcher, posting a 5.09 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 15.8%. However, he finished the season strong after being reinstated to the rotation, allowing two earned runs or less in six of his last eight starts. In addition to the high ERA and SIERA, Buchholz allowed a .342 wOBA to left-handed hitters during the regular season. Given the abbreviated slate, nearly all of the Indians left-handed batters are in play. Buchholz and the Red Sox are listed as a sizable favorite today, but his matchup against the Indians is less than ideal. Cleveland was ranked tenth or better in team wOBA, team ISO, and team strikeout rate against right-handed pitching during the regular season. There is some decent potential run support for Buchholz, but he will be on a quick leash in a must-win game for the Red Sox. Meaning there’s a good chance that he doesn’t pitch deep enough into this game to provide the necessary upside in tournaments.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Other tagged players: Jason Kipnis, Tyler Naquin, Clay Buchholz Only two pitchers allowed more HRs than Josh Tomlin (36), who struggles more against RHBs.
Josh Tomlin had the lowest walk rate in baseball (2.8%) by almost a full point. That allowed him a 13.5 K-BB% with just a 16.3 K%. He was also one of just three pitchers to allow more than 35 HRs this year. The other two were Jered Weaver and James Shields. Perhaps he’s better off in Boston, a park that suppresses LH power more than most people realize and more than Cleveland. RHBs do have a wOBA 30 points higher for his career though, while his 119 HRs allowed have been split almost dead evenly. The split was more pronounced this year (RHBs .356 wOBA and 22 of his 36 HRs, LHBs .287 wOBA) however. David Ortiz (173 wRC+, .350 ISO vs RHP) has homered three times off Tomlin in 18 PAs, his only three hits against him. It’s an interesting dilemma between he and the RH Hanley Ramirez (110 wRC+, .185 ISO vs RHP) at First Base. Jackie Bradley (134 wRC+, .261 ISO vs RHP) is the only other batter in the lineup with a HR against Tomlin. He drops to ninth today because Andrew Benintendi (160 wRC+, .247 ISO vs RHP) deserves to bump up to seventh. Boston is projected for a slate high 5.3 runs, a full run more than the next highest team (Cleveland). Tomlin may get a longer leash with his team owning a two game lead in the series.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Hanley Ramirez, Jackie Bradley, Andrew Benintendi Kenta Maeda had an impressive 18.0 K-BB% in his first season, faces Nats lineup with few strong hitters vs RHP
Kenta Maeda had an impressive 18.0 K-BB% with an 3.48 ERA and similar estimators in his first major league season. Washington offense that has struggled at times against RHP, but Daniel Murphy (163 wRC+, .261 ISO vs RHP this season) does not look to be severely impacted by the injury that kept him out of the lineup the last week of the season. That’s a tremendous deal for the Nationals, who can only call he, Bryce Harper (118 wRC, .192 ISO) and Trea Turner (159 wRC+, .258 ISO) strong hitters against RHP. The team had just a 95 wRC+ vs RHP this year. The issue with Maeda is that he went five innings or less in 14 of his last 26 starts and only seven innings once. However, he’s a reasonable $9.2K on FanDuel in a decent matchup and a near must roster and probably the chalk DraftKings for just $7.9K as a sizeable favorite (currently -134). Another factor potentially in Maeda’s favor is that the Nationals did not face him this year.
Other tagged players: Daniel Murphy, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner Gio Gonzalez draws Game Three start against worst offense in the majors vs LHP (72 wRC+, 22.4 K%, 9.6 HR/FB)
Gio Gonzalez (4.57 ERA, 3.96 SIERA, 3.76 FIP, 22.4 K%) draws the game three start in LA. While you never know what you’re going to get with him, what he does have in his favor is the Dodger struggles against LHP. They’re 72 wRC+ against southpaws was worst in the majors, six points below the second worst Phillies. They had a 22.4 K% (matching Gio’s season rate) and just a 9.6 HR/FB. That does not mean he gets a long leash here, as he seldom did during the regular season, finishing with five innings or less in four of his last five starts. If you’re playing two pitcher sites and/or need a pitcher on the bottom half of the board, he is in the best spot tonight. The LA lineup does have a couple of batters who were above average vs LHP this year though. Yasmani Grandal (120 wRC+, .171 ISO) is the most expensive Catcher on the board and Yasiel Puig (110 wRC+, .210 ISO) should be popular as an affordable OF bat in the cleanup spot. Howie Kendrick (79 wRC+, .058 ISO) has much better numbers against LHP in his career (111 wRC+), but not much power (.148 ISO). Corey Seager has hit LHP well enough in his career to be considered as well (108 wRC+, .165 ISO) even if he dropped to slightly below average this year (96 wRC+). RHBs had a .326 wOBA against Gonzalez this year (46 points higher than LHBs) with 18 of his 19 HRs allowed, though he has virtually now real split difference for his career (RHBs .305 wOBA, LHBs .299).
Other tagged players: Yasiel Puig, Corey Seager, Yasmani Grandal, Howie Kendrick The Rangers are in a difficult matchup today against Aaron Sanchez
Aaron Sanchez finished the year on a more positive not than Colby Lewis, but he was by no means elite. Over the last 21 days of the regular season, Sanchez held a SIERA of 3.87, striking out a solid 28% of the hitters that he faced and only allowing a HR/9 of 0.47. However, on the contact Sanchez did allow over that period, 31% of it was of the hard contact variety, and 42% of it was in the air. Sanchez is a pitcher known for his stark splits, possessing a much lower xFIP of 3.20 versus RHBs, compared to a less dominate 4.31 xFIP versus LHBS. While Sanchez is still able to strike out LHBs at a 21% rate, he gives a much higher flyball rate versus lefties, 31%, compared to only 19% versus RHBS. His ability to keep the ball out of the air versus RHBs explains his 0.37 HR/9 allowed to righties, leaving DFS players to target only left-handing swing Rangers. The Rangers will not be sending any lefties to the plate that have punished RHP, considering their best LHBs, Rougned Odor, Nomar Mazara, and Carlos Beltran all have wRC+ totals lower than 110. Rougned Odor at least has an ISO over 0.200, sitting at a stout 0.247, so look to the Rangers 2B if you insist on using Rangers today.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Carlos Beltran, Aaron Sanchez
Carlos Santana is an elite option at 1B today on an abbreviated slate
Buchholz enters the game with one of the worst SIERA’s amongst the pitchers taking the mound today, sitting at a healthy 4.91 over the last three weeks of the season. Over that period, Buchholz struck out 18% of the batters he faced, allowed a high flyball % of 51%, and 36% of the contact he allowed was categorized as hard contact. Buchholz gave up flyball percentages over 40% against both LHBs and RHBs, which led to a HR/9 of 0.84 versus LHBs and a 1.79 versus RHBs. These HR/9 splits seem odd, considering Buchholz gave up a 36% hard contact rate versus lefties, compared to only 27% versus RHBs. With only a 6% HR/FB this season versus lefties, one could speculate that his HR/9 to LHBs should have been higher based on his hard contact allowed. Both LHBs and RHBs are in play for the Indians, beginning with Carlos Santana. Santana hold a 144 wRC+ versus RHP, only striking out an elite 16% of the time. Santana is head and shoulders above his teammates, with a trio of Indians sitting at a wRC+ total of 119-120, including Jason Kipnis, Jose Ramirez, and Francisco Lindor. Jason Kipnis, Jose Ramirez, and Francisco Lindor have varying levels of power, possessing ISOs of 0.200, 0.146, and 0.139, respectively. While a stack of these Indians lefties/switch-hitters would not be a bad play, Carlos Santana as a one-off would not be a bad strategy.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor, Clay Buchholz Red Sox and Indians game postponed
The game will be made up tomorrow
Optimal Cubs plays: Rizzo, Bryant, Fowler, and Contreras
Jeff Samardzija has been a little better against RHBs, striking out 21% of RHBs, compared to 19% of LHBs he faced this year. Jeff’s 4.30 xFIP versus LHBs shows that he was somewhat susceptible to lefties and his 36% flyball percentage points can prove problematic against the wrong power bats. On the other hand, Samardzija did give up a 1.01 HR/9 to RHBs, just below the 1.13 HR/9 he allowed to lefties, so targeting Cubs from both sides of the plate is a viable strategy today. The four of these five players would be a part of the optimal Cubs to stack: Anthony Rizzo (wRC+ versus RHP of 154, K% versus RHP of 17%) , Kris Bryant (wRC+ versus RHP of 139, K% versus RHP of 23%, Dexter Fowler (wRC+ versus RHP of126, K% versus RHP of 25%, Willson Contreras (wRC+ versus RHP of 125, K% versus RHP of 25%), and Ben Zobrist (wRC+ versus RHP of 123, K% versus RHP of 11%).
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Dexter Fowler, Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, Ben Zobrist, Jeff Samardzija Dodgers and Nationals game postponed
The game has been postponed until 1:08 PM ET tomorrow.
Jeff Samardzija and Kyle Hendricks's peripheral statistics look remarkably similar over the last few weeks of the season
With one of the games tonight in jeopardy, the strategy of picking the right players from a single game becomes as much about game theory as it is the likelihood of production. If we put the two pitchers side by side, we quickly see that both pitchers finished the season on a high-note. Over the last three weeks of the season, Jeff Samardzija and Kyle Hendricks finished with SIERAs of 2.88 and 3.23, respectively. Samardzija struck out more batters over that period, 31%, but Hendricks’s 26% k-rate was plenty respectable its own right. The hard contact allowed was not appreciably different between the two, sitting at 30% for Samardzija and 33% for Hendricks. Coincidentally, each pitcher’s flyball rate was the same as his hard contact percentage, meaning that neither pitcher has an advantage based on the type of contact he is allowing. With not much to glean from each pitcher’s last few weeks of the season, it only makes sense to begin focusing on each pitcher’s handedness splits.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Jeff Samardzija Weather permitting, Jayson Werth makes for an elite one-off play from the Nats lineup
Rich Hill was sharp over the last three weeks of the season, possessing an elite SIERA of 2.59 over that period. Hill struck out 34% of the hitters he faced in the last few weeks of the season, while only surrendering a HR/9 of 0.64. However, Hill’s hard contact allowed is a little disconcerting, since he allowed a hard contact percentage of 34%. A significant amount of the contact was line-drives, considering that Hill held a 28% line drive rate over that period. On the season, Rich Hill gave up more hard contact to RHBs, 30% versus 24% allowed to LHBs, exacerbated by a 38% fly ball rate allowed to righties. If Hill’s line drive trouble turns into flyball trouble tonight, look for one Nationals bat, in particular, to take advantage. Jayson Werth finished the year with a ridiculously good 172 wRC+ versus lefties and a fantastic 0.298 ISO. Werth struck out less than 20% of the time in his at-bats versus lefties and was able to elevate the ball in 44% of his at-bats that ended in contact, finishing the year with a 44% flyball rate versus lefties. This weather for this game is not looking good, but if the game can play out late, Jayson Werth is a viable one-off play from the Nationals lineup.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Rich Hill