DFS Alerts

Top Arm in a High Upside, But Dangerous Spot

We get the full 15 on DraftKings on Tuesday with FanDuel omitting the second game of the double-header in Cleveland. There are no fewer than six $10K pitchers on the board with Zach Wheeler and Carlos Rodon the only two pitchers to reach that mark on both sites. Wheeler failed to complete six innings for just the second time in 10 starts last time out, as the Rangers ran up his pitch count and knocked him out in the fifth. He still struck out eight of 23 batters and has struck out at least seven in nine of those 10 starts. With a 22.4 K-BB%, above average ground ball rate and great contact management (86.8 mph EV, 5.6% Barrels/BBE), his 2.77 ERA is firmly within a quarter of a run of all non-FIP estimators (5.0 HR/FB with just three of 11 barrels leaving the park). Wheeler is in a dangerous, but high upside matchup against the Braves (101 wRC+, 25.4 K%, 14.8 HR/FB vs RHP) and may also benefit slightly from the fact that they line up predominantly right-handed. The most expensive arm on the board at $10.8K on DraftKings ($400 less on FanDuel), Wheeler is the second best projected arm on the board and a top five projected value on FanDuel. With a loaded pitching board tonight, some in great spots, some not so great, who projects as tonight’s top arm? Check out Tuesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog to find out.

Dodgers May Be Most Popular, But Projections Suggest This Stack Has More Value

On a nine game Monday night slate that features the Dodgers at Coors with no other offense within a run of their team total nearing seven, FanDuel has made them too affordable. They more than double and nearly triple the ownership projection of any other stack on FanDuel (22.51%). While they also reach a 20% ownership projection on DraftKings (PlateIQ projections are fluid and update throughout the day), they’re less than a percentage point above cheap Texas bats against Kris Bubic, who has been a bit better later after being a launching pad for much of the season. In terms of who smashes the slate most often in simulations, it’s no contest, as the Dodgers do so more than twice as often as any other stack on both sites, nearing a 20 Smash% when no other offense reaches double digits. The top value stack projection on DraftKings by a decent margin is the Pirates (20.51%) against Erick Fedde’s 7.7 K-BB%, though their opponents, the Nationals, also reach a double digit value projection in what will probably be a bullpen game for the Pirates. On FanDuel, both the Athletics and Royals reach double digit value projections in tougher matchups against Jordan Montgomery and Martin Perez. One of tonight’s top rated stacks is Los Angeles, but which one? Read today’s PlateIQ Live Blog to find out.

Where to Find the Value to Pair with Top of the Board Bats

Pitching not being very expensive tonight is one way to help stuff Dodger bats into your lineup tonight, while tonight’s projections suggest some Dodger bats are simply too cheap. Max Muncy (123 wRC+, .235 ISO vs RHP since 2021) is not only the top projected FanDuel value for just $3.3K, but is also one of the top projected bats on the board overall. From there, Dodger stackers may have to make some decisions as to whether or not they want to replace the top overall bats of Trea Turner, Freddie Freeman or Will Smith with ones projected for higher value in Chris Taylor (107 wRC+, .170 ISO) for $3.2K or Trayce Thompson (120 wRC+, .219 ISO) for just $2.5K. Thompson is also the top projected value on DraftKings, costing the minimum ($2K), but is the only Dodger cheap enough to be projected among the top 10 values there.

If not the Dodgers, both sites suggest value can be found in a Pittsburgh lineup facing Erick Fedde. With just a 7.7 K-BB%, all of Fedde’s estimators exceed four, while batters from either side of the plate are between a .329 and .338 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last season. Daniel Vogelbach (122 wRC+, .209 ISO) is $2.7K or less on either site. Bryan Reynolds (136 wRC+, .231 ISO) is still less than $3K on FanDuel, while Michael Chavis (60 wRC+) costs just $2.1K on DraftKings.

FanDuel projections also suggest Cesar Hernandez (77 wRC+) and Yadiel Hernandez (89 wRC+) may be top values to pair with top overall projected bat Juan Soto (171 wRC+, .246 ISO) against what is likely a bullpen game for the Pirates.

DraftKings projects a trio of Rangers as top values against Kris Bubic, who has struck out 18 of his last 68 without a barrel over his last three starts, but still doesn’t have an estimator below 4.62, while nearly half of his contact (48.1%) has been at a 95 mph EV or above. Batters from either side of the plate are above a .325 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last season and the bottom of the projected order in Josh Smith (160 wRC+ last 30 days), Charlie Culberson (127 wRC+, .162 ISO vs LHP since 2021) and Leody Taveras (66 wRC+ since being recalled) all cost $2.2K or less.

Another DraftKings stacking option could be pairing minimally priced Andrew Velazquez (41 wRC+ vs RHP since 2021) and Brandon Marsh (95 wRC+, .142 ISO) with top projected bats Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani against barrel prone Lucas Giolito (12.5% Barrels/BBE).

Despite Coors, Dodgers Aren't the Only Team with Multiple Top Projected Bats

Not only does Monday’s nine game slate include Coors, but it’s the most positive run environment on the board by a mile and it’s the Dodgers who are visiting. The visiting team tops the board at a mind-blowing 6.74 run team total, more than a run above the next highest team total (Yankees 5.54, Blue Jays 5.5). Additionally, one other team is above five implied runs, while three more reach four and a half. As expected, PlateIQ projections (which are fluid and subject to change) absolutely love Dodger bats tonight. Four of the top six projections belong to Dodgers. Chad Kuhl has struck out exactly seven in two his last seven starts, but a total of eight over the other five combined. Down to just a 7.7 K-BB% on the season, a 38.6 GB% with an 89.8 mph EV probably won’t keep him around Coors very long. He’s somehow still riding an 8.6 HR/FB and just 6.5% Barrels/BBE, but even then, all estimators are at least one-fifth of a run above his 3.96 ERA with contact neutral ones above four and a half. LHBs have a wOBA and xwOBA above .350 against Kuhl since last season, but RHBs have hit him well too (.321 wOBA, .311 xwOBA). It’s simply the top half of the expected lineup that projections favor here, in Trea Turner (128 wRC+, .170 ISO vs RHP since LY), Freddie Freeman (148 wRC+, .207 ISO), Will Smith (135 wRC+, 232 ISO) and Max Muncy (123 wRC+, .235 ISO).

The Dodgers aren’t the only offense with multiple top 10 projected bats on both sites tonight. Lucas Giolito may actually be the top projected pitcher on the board against an Angels’ team with a modest 4.55 implied run line, but he’s also been a bit of a launching pad this season (20.3 HR/FB, 5.07 FIP, 12.5% Barrels/BBE, 5.23 xERA), while the Angels run out a stars and scrubs lineup. Mike Trout (197 wRC+, .393 ISO) actually separates some of the Dodger bats atop the board. Giolito’s heavy changeup usage gives him a reverse split (RHBs .348 wOBA, LHBs .275 since last season). Shohei Ohtani (151 wRC+, .300 ISO) remains a top of the board projected bat none the less.

FanDuel projections also find spots for Aaron Judge (163 wRC+, .284 ISO) and Giancarlo Stanton (133 wRC+, .257 ISO) among the top 10 against Paul Blackburn, who has been contact prone (17.6 K%), but a solid contact manager (4.7% Barrels/BBE). RHBs have just a .295 wOBA, but .323 xwOBA against him since last season. Any kind of contact you allow Judge and Stanton to make is more likely to be a problem than not. DraftKings projections keep Vladimir Guerroro Jr. (157 wRC+, .274 ISO) and George Springer (132 wRC+, .267 ISO) among their top 10. Connor Seabold is a marginally regarded prospect (45 Future Value grade via Fangraphs) with an 18.0 K-BB% over 11 AAA starts this year. He started one game for the Red Sox last season, lasting three innings.

Top Projected Pitcher and Value on the Board for Less than $8.5K

Monday night’s top projected pitcher is also the top projected value on both sites (and it’s not even close on FanDuel), but is also extremely high risk, which is why he can also be rostered for less than $8.5K on either site. Not only has Lucas Giolito allowed multiple home runs in four of his last five starts, but he’s only struck out exactly three in three of them (though eight in each of the other two). The contact profile has gotten out of hand (20.3 HR/FB, 5.07 FIP, 12.5% Barrels/BBE, 5.23 xERA), while a 27.2 K% still has his xFIP and SIERA below four. If you’re buying into severe home run regression, this is a great spot for Giolito. The Angels have a 106 wRC+ and 14.1 HR/FB, but also a board high 26.2 K% vs RHP. It would be fair to say there’s a wide range of outcomes on the table here, but PlateIQ projections (which are subject to change) believe they’re going to favor the pitcher with the high strikeout rate against the lineup with an equally high one more often than not.

FanDuel projections also like another pair of riskier arms for more than 3.5 points per $1K in salary tonight. Kris Bubic has struck out 18 of his last 68 batters (six walks) and the nine runs he’s allowed over these 15.2 innings have actually reduced his season ERA to 7.41. A 6.9 K-BB% gap seems to be widening, while he hasn’t allowed a single barrel in three straight. His lowest estimator is still a 4.62 xFIP, while nearly half of his contact (48.1%) has been at a 95 mph EV or above. If you’re buying, Kansas City is a power suppressing park, which should help with Texas’s 114 wRC+ with a board high 17.3 HR/FB vs LHP, which comes with a 22 K%, but it’s going to take a strong stomach to roster Bubic on a single pitcher site, even for less than $6.5K. Bubic projects as just a middle of the board value for $6.1K on DraftKings.

Adam Wainwright has struck out seven in three of his last five starts and still hasn’t reached a 9.0 SwStr% in a single game yet this season. Sure, an elite 21.5 CStr% affords him some leeway, but even then, it’s impossible to project even a 20 K% for him over any reasonable span. He’s completed seven inning Quality Starts in five of his last nine outings, but allowed four runs in each of his last two. Wainwright does not have a non-FIP estimator below four, so things could truly get ugly, should he regress in both ERA and strikeout rate. That said, he pitches deep into games and in a great home park. The Marlins have a 111 wRC+ and 14.4 HR/FB vs RHP, but also a 22.2 K% and a predominantly right-handed lineup. Batters from that side have just a .237 wOBA and .250 xwOBA against Wainwright since last season. He projects as a top five value on either site for $8.5K or less, but you’re paying for the floor and not the ceiling here.

If you’re looking for a cheaper SP2 on DraftKings, there are a couple of $9K FanDuel arms, who cost less than $8K on DraftKings and project as top values in Jordan Montgomery and George Kirby (covered on today’s PlateIQ blog). DraftKings projections actually suggest you can find two of the top three values on the board in Seattle tonight. The Orioles have loosened the leash a bit on Tyler Wells. Even though he threw just five innings in his last start, it was with a season high 95 pitches, while he’s thrown at least 84 in four of his last five with sx innings completed for the first three times this year. He still hasn’t struck out more than four in a single start (15.3 K%), but has managed contact fairly well (36.8 GB%, 17.0 IFFB%, 6.9% Barrels/BBE), generating a 3.63 ERA that’s his only estimator below four. The matchup isn’t great either (Mariners 110 wRC+, 22.2 K% vs RHP), but it’s a great park and price ($6.2K).

Most Expensive Pitchers in Equally Difficult Spots

On a nine game Monday night slate, Pablo Lopez costs exactly $10K on FanDuel and is the only pitcher to reach that cost on either site, while Kevin Gausman is the only other pitcher above $9K on both sites. That’s not to say that it’s a poor pitching board, but it does lack superstar arms. Lopez has allowed at least four runs in every other start dating back over his last six, but has just a 3.93 ERA and 3.76 xFIP over that span. Not up to his usual standards, but still fine. His season results are much more impressive (18.2 K-BB%). Even with 9.0% Barrels/BBE, his worst estimator is just a 3.55 xERA. His lowest, a 3.26 DRA. In a difficult matchup in St Louis (105 wRC+, 20.2 K%), Lopez is just the seventh best projected pitcher on the board by PlateIQ (though projections are fluid and subject to change), making him essentially more of a middle of the board pitcher than a top of the board one tonight. Gausman is in an equally difficult spot. For more on tonight’s top of the board pitchers, check out Monday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Zach McKinstry (neck) scratched Sunday

Zach McKinstry (neck) scratched Sunday

Trent Grisham (shoulder) scratched Saturday

Trent Grisham (shoulder) scratched Saturday

The start of Orioles-White Sox will be delayed Saturday due to rain

Game update: The start of Orioles-White Sox will be delayed Saturday due to rain

Miguel Rojas (foot) scratched Friday

Miguel Rojas (foot) scratched Friday

This Rookie is Leading the Top Projected Value Stack Tonight

On a 14 game slate with only two teams (Twins & Angels) above five implied runs and only slightly separating themselves from the rest of the board, the Angels are the only team projected for double digit stacking ownership currently (projections are fluid and updated throughout the day) and they reach this point on DraftKings only. Cheap Twins bats are projected to form the most popular stack on FanDuel, but not at a rate that reaches even nine percent. No offense smashes the board at a double digit rate on either site tonight, but the Twins top the board in Smash% with a rate that nearly reaches double digits. Why would the Angels project to be more popular than the Twins? Likely because their offense is more compactly run through three to four top bats on any given night in more of a stars and scrubs fashion. The surprise here is that Minnesota stacks don’t project as the top value, especially on FanDuel, where many Twins can be found for less than $3K. It’s the Arizona Diamondbacks that get that nod with the top Value% on either site at this time. Rony Garcia has struck out 24 of 99 batters over five starts, but with just an 8.9 SwStr%. His strikeout rate on the season is even higher (27.3%) with the same swinging strike rate and a mere average 15.5 CStr%, suggesting that none of it is sustainable. Add in a 29 GB%, 93.7 mph EV and 20% Barrels/BBE and he’s not fooling many sharp players. LHBs own a .361 wOBA (.391 xwOBA) against him since last season. Alek Thomas (140 wRC+, .227 ISO vs RHP since last year) is now batting second and is still less than $3K on either site. Projections differ by site on which stack may provide the best leverage and neither currently includes any of the teams mentioned above. For more, check out tonight’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Tons of Value in Tonight's Top Team Run Line

The Minnesota Twins may be a top of the board offense tonight (5.31 implied runs) without many top projected bats (only Byron Buxton is a top projected bat by PlateIQ), but plenty of projected value. Several Minnesota bats are top 10 projected point per dollar values on either site against German Marquez tonight (batters from either side of the plate between a .319 and .327 wOBA and xwOBA against since last season). Trevor Larnach (105 wRC+, .265 ISO vs RHP since 2021) is the only Twin pulling double duty, as a top projected value on both DraftKings and FanDuel for $2.5K or less. FanDuel projections also favor Max Kepler (114 wRC+, .218 ISO) at a ridiculous $2.5K as the top overall projected value, along with Gary Sanchez (98 wRC+, .210 ISO) for the same price. On DraftKings, Alex Kirilloff (82 wRC+, .148 ISO) costs $2.6K. While no other offense features multiple top 10 projected values on FanDuel, there’s every chance that players will load up with cheap Minnesota bats, along with expensive pitching,

DraftKings projections give players an alternative with a couple of Kansas City bats that project as top of the board values. Cole Irvin tied a season high he set just two starts earlier, striking out six of these same Royals last time out. Even that only brings his strikeout rate up to 16.5%. Great control (5.7 BB%) is about the only thing Irvin supplies these days, as his 3.15 ERA benefits from a 79.2 LOB%. All estimators are above four, including an xERA that reaches five (10.4% Barrels/BBE). Batters from either side of the plate have at least a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against Irvin since last season, though it’s really same-handed batters that have given him fits (.399 wOBA, .405 xwOBA). The Royals currently have the fifth highest run total on the board (4.78) and projections suggest adding Michael A. Taylor (97 wRC+, .122 ISO) and Carlos Santana (108 wRC+, .099 ISO) to your stacks for $2.6K or less, while Hunter Dozier (95 wRC+, .133 ISO) also costs just $2.3K on FanDuel. The Kansas City lineup is generally full of right-handed batters who struggle with LHP, especially without Sal Perez around, but that’s not expected to be the case at all tonight.

Several Top Projected Bats Against a Middling Bullpen

A 28 team board on Friday finds just two offenses above five implied runs, with the Twins and Angels slightly separating from the rest of the board, but still below a five and a half run team total. We then have eight more teams above four and a half runs, a mark just a bit over one-third of the board gets to. It’s an absolute lock then when you find the Angels with a top of the board team run total, you’ll find Mike Trout (191 wRC+, .378 ISO vs RHP since 2021), Shohei Ohtani (150 wRC+, .298 ISO) and Taylor Ward (138 wRC+, .228 ISO) as top projected bats and, in fact, all three among the top eight projected hitters by PlateIQ tonight against Chris Flexen, who has a very hitter friendly contact profile (33 GB%, 90.4 mph EV, 10.2% Barrels/BBE) to go with an 8.6 K-BB%. (Although, this doesn’t mean Flexen, himself, is unusable at a low price in a high upside spot against a lineup that strikes out a ton.) Trout is the top projected batter on either site. Batters from either side of the plate have a wOBA and xwOBA between .330 and .350 since last year.

The only other offense with multiple top 10 projected bats is not Minnesota though. Byron Buxton (154 wRC+, .337 ISO) is the only top projected Twin against German Marquez (batters from either side of the plate between a .319 and .327 wOBA and xwOBA against since last season). The Chicago White Sox is the team that’s popping in PlateIQ projections tonight and if we stretch it out to top 11 projected bats on either site, that list includes four White Sox. Austin Voth is replacing Kyle Bradish tonight. He threw 41 pitches in his first start, which means Chicago will be seeing a lot of the Baltimore bullpen that has actually been top of the league by ERA (3.20) and FIP (3.40) over the last 30 days, but more middling in terms of xFIP (4.07) and SIERA (3.86). Voth, who has pitched almost exclusively in relief, has held RHBs below a .300 wOBA & xwOBA since last season, while LHBs are slightly above .300. The White Sox generally offer a predominantly right-handed lineup, of which Tim Anderson (123 wRC+, .144 ISO), Luis Robert (124 wRC+, .156 ISO), Jose Abreu (119 wRC+, .177 ISO) and Andrew Vaughn (94 wRC+, .132 ISO) are projected to do the most damage and likely comprise the top half of this order.

The High Upside Pitcher in a Favorable Spot

There is plenty of expensive pitching on a 14 game slate on Friday, but with tough matchups for many of them, players could be justified in wanting to look for some middle of the board upside in some more attractive matchups and where you probably want to start is with Jeffrey Springs. The four runs Jeffrey he allowed in his last start in Baltimore represent one-quarter of his season total. He’s completed six innings in just two starts, so it seems the Rays are going to cap him around 90 pitches, but there hasn’t been much drop off since entering the rotation. In fact, his bullpen and rotation peripherals are almost exactly the same, although we’re only talking about 10 innings out of the pen. Springs is carrying a 20.6 K-BB% with a 13.7 SwStr%, 79.0 Z-Contact% and 86.9 mph EV. The 89.1 LOB% is unsustainable, but estimators still run an impressive range from a 2.98 FIP to a 3.59 DRA. He’s in a great spot (Pirates 84 wRC+, 24.3 K% vs LHP), where our largest concern is workload, which probably makes Springs a better value on DraftKings, even for $200 more ($8.5K), though he’s currently the top projected value and second best overall projection on both sites.

The current second best projected value on FanDuel is Dylan Bundy for $7K. The seven batters he struck out in Arizona last time out exceeded his total from his previous three starts combined (six). It was also his first Quality Start of the year and just the third time he’s completed six innings. Bundy has allowed multiple home runs and at least three barrels in four of his last eight starts. Ironically, even with 11.2% Barrels/BBE on the season, his 3.83 xERA is his only estimator below four, although all are more than half a run below his 5.17 ERA (69 LOB%, 13.7 HR/FB). Again, we love the matchup at a low price. The Rockies have an 83 wRC+ (21.5 K%) vs RHP and 81 wRC+ on the road. They do, however, have the third best team wRC+ in the league over the last week (143).

Nobody has pitched as well as Alex Cobb (27.2 K%, 62.4 GB%, 86.5 mph EV, 2.5% Barrels/BBE) and had as poor results to show for it. His 5.62 ERA exceeds every single estimator by at least two and one-quarter runs. He’s allowed five home runs on just three barrels! He’s far underpriced at just $7.6K for his home matchup against the Reds (68 wRC+ on the road, 86 wRC+, 22.8 K% vs RHP), but may have workload issues.

There’s nothing shiny or even interesting about Merrill Kelly’s numbers this season, including an 11.4 K-BB% and average ground ball rate and contact profile. Home run suppression (5.1 HR/FB) is responsible for a 3.26 FIP, while his 3.59 xERA is not much higher than a 3.46 ERA, though all other estimators are above four. He’s a boring pitcher, who costs less than $8K on DraftKings against the Tigers though (68 wRC+, 24.1 K%, 6.7 HR/FB vs RHP).

If you’re looking for something in a DK SP2 for less than $6.5K, working mostly out of the bullpen, Andre Pallante has struck out just 10 of 61 batters in three spot starts, while also walking seven. His 6.1 K-BB% on the season isn’t very inspiring, as he hasn’t gotten many chases (45.1 Z-O-Swing%), though there is a lot to like in the contact profile with a 61.6 GB% and just four barrels (three home runs) allowed. A 3.55 xERA is an exception to estimators otherwise right around four. He costs just $5.5K in a decent home matchup against the Cubs (99 wRC+, 23 K%) and projects as tonight’s third best point per dollar value currently. Chris Flexen has allowed just 10 runs over his last 29 innings, but has only completed six innings twice over his last five starts. It’s all a bit of smoke and mirrors though, because with just an 8.6 K-BB% on the season, he has to really on the contact profile for success and that’s not happening either (33 GB%, 90.4 mph EV, 10.2% Barrels/BBE). What is happening is that 14 of his 24 barrels have stayed in the park, perhaps pushing his 4.23 ERA more than half a run below all non-FIP estimators. However, he’s also very cheap ($6.2K) in an even higher upside matchup (Angels 105 wRC+, but board high 26.2 K% vs RHP). Lastly, when talking about peak matchups, we’re always looking for the A’s (70 wRC+, 23.9 K%, 7.6 HR/FB vs RHP) and that matchup falls to a very cheap Zack Greinke tonight. He has just a 6.7 K-BB% and he’s only walked 10 batters over 51.2 innings. With a high of five strikeouts, accomplished just once, Greinke has just a single Quality Start, in which he struck out single batter in St Louis. His 5.05 ERA matches his 5.03 SIERA without a single estimator below four and a half, but running as high as a 5.72 xERA. Are the A’s enough to push him to greater heights? Greinke is a top seven projected value on DraftKings.

Very Difficult Matchups for Some of Tonight's Top Pitchers

We have a large 14 game Friday night slate that features four $10K pitchers (three of them on both sites) in addition to another three reaching the $9K price point on both sites. Justin Verlander is the most expensive pitcher and only one to reach $10.5K on either site, which he does on both and he may be overpriced. Verlander has just a 25.5 K% and has exceeded six strikeouts in just two of his last nine starts. Certainly not bad for a 39 year-old coming back from Tommy John surgery, but not the standard he’s normally held up to either. With only four of his last 11 runs and 75% of his yearly total being earned, his 2.30 ERA is more than a full run below all estimators, except for a 3.10 xERA, which registers his 6.8% Barrels/BBE and 16 IFFBs. It’s really the 4.7 K-BB% that’s driving the 20.8 K-BB% this year. Striking out fewer batters, Yankee Stadium could be more of a detriment to the extreme fly baller. The Yankees have a 16.9 HR/FB at home and 122 wRC+ vs RHP (also at home), along with just 20.5 K% and 15.6 HR/FB. Verlander is the third best projected pitcher on the board (PlateIQ projections are fluid and subject to change), but a much worse projected value that most other top projected arms tonight. Verlander is just one of many top arms in difficult matchups. To find out which of these pitchers projects best tonight, check out Friday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.