DFS Alerts

The High Upside Pitcher in a Favorable Spot

There is plenty of expensive pitching on a 14 game slate on Friday, but with tough matchups for many of them, players could be justified in wanting to look for some middle of the board upside in some more attractive matchups and where you probably want to start is with Jeffrey Springs. The four runs Jeffrey he allowed in his last start in Baltimore represent one-quarter of his season total. He’s completed six innings in just two starts, so it seems the Rays are going to cap him around 90 pitches, but there hasn’t been much drop off since entering the rotation. In fact, his bullpen and rotation peripherals are almost exactly the same, although we’re only talking about 10 innings out of the pen. Springs is carrying a 20.6 K-BB% with a 13.7 SwStr%, 79.0 Z-Contact% and 86.9 mph EV. The 89.1 LOB% is unsustainable, but estimators still run an impressive range from a 2.98 FIP to a 3.59 DRA. He’s in a great spot (Pirates 84 wRC+, 24.3 K% vs LHP), where our largest concern is workload, which probably makes Springs a better value on DraftKings, even for $200 more ($8.5K), though he’s currently the top projected value and second best overall projection on both sites.

The current second best projected value on FanDuel is Dylan Bundy for $7K. The seven batters he struck out in Arizona last time out exceeded his total from his previous three starts combined (six). It was also his first Quality Start of the year and just the third time he’s completed six innings. Bundy has allowed multiple home runs and at least three barrels in four of his last eight starts. Ironically, even with 11.2% Barrels/BBE on the season, his 3.83 xERA is his only estimator below four, although all are more than half a run below his 5.17 ERA (69 LOB%, 13.7 HR/FB). Again, we love the matchup at a low price. The Rockies have an 83 wRC+ (21.5 K%) vs RHP and 81 wRC+ on the road. They do, however, have the third best team wRC+ in the league over the last week (143).

Nobody has pitched as well as Alex Cobb (27.2 K%, 62.4 GB%, 86.5 mph EV, 2.5% Barrels/BBE) and had as poor results to show for it. His 5.62 ERA exceeds every single estimator by at least two and one-quarter runs. He’s allowed five home runs on just three barrels! He’s far underpriced at just $7.6K for his home matchup against the Reds (68 wRC+ on the road, 86 wRC+, 22.8 K% vs RHP), but may have workload issues.

There’s nothing shiny or even interesting about Merrill Kelly’s numbers this season, including an 11.4 K-BB% and average ground ball rate and contact profile. Home run suppression (5.1 HR/FB) is responsible for a 3.26 FIP, while his 3.59 xERA is not much higher than a 3.46 ERA, though all other estimators are above four. He’s a boring pitcher, who costs less than $8K on DraftKings against the Tigers though (68 wRC+, 24.1 K%, 6.7 HR/FB vs RHP).

If you’re looking for something in a DK SP2 for less than $6.5K, working mostly out of the bullpen, Andre Pallante has struck out just 10 of 61 batters in three spot starts, while also walking seven. His 6.1 K-BB% on the season isn’t very inspiring, as he hasn’t gotten many chases (45.1 Z-O-Swing%), though there is a lot to like in the contact profile with a 61.6 GB% and just four barrels (three home runs) allowed. A 3.55 xERA is an exception to estimators otherwise right around four. He costs just $5.5K in a decent home matchup against the Cubs (99 wRC+, 23 K%) and projects as tonight’s third best point per dollar value currently. Chris Flexen has allowed just 10 runs over his last 29 innings, but has only completed six innings twice over his last five starts. It’s all a bit of smoke and mirrors though, because with just an 8.6 K-BB% on the season, he has to really on the contact profile for success and that’s not happening either (33 GB%, 90.4 mph EV, 10.2% Barrels/BBE). What is happening is that 14 of his 24 barrels have stayed in the park, perhaps pushing his 4.23 ERA more than half a run below all non-FIP estimators. However, he’s also very cheap ($6.2K) in an even higher upside matchup (Angels 105 wRC+, but board high 26.2 K% vs RHP). Lastly, when talking about peak matchups, we’re always looking for the A’s (70 wRC+, 23.9 K%, 7.6 HR/FB vs RHP) and that matchup falls to a very cheap Zack Greinke tonight. He has just a 6.7 K-BB% and he’s only walked 10 batters over 51.2 innings. With a high of five strikeouts, accomplished just once, Greinke has just a single Quality Start, in which he struck out single batter in St Louis. His 5.05 ERA matches his 5.03 SIERA without a single estimator below four and a half, but running as high as a 5.72 xERA. Are the A’s enough to push him to greater heights? Greinke is a top seven projected value on DraftKings.

Very Difficult Matchups for Some of Tonight's Top Pitchers

We have a large 14 game Friday night slate that features four $10K pitchers (three of them on both sites) in addition to another three reaching the $9K price point on both sites. Justin Verlander is the most expensive pitcher and only one to reach $10.5K on either site, which he does on both and he may be overpriced. Verlander has just a 25.5 K% and has exceeded six strikeouts in just two of his last nine starts. Certainly not bad for a 39 year-old coming back from Tommy John surgery, but not the standard he’s normally held up to either. With only four of his last 11 runs and 75% of his yearly total being earned, his 2.30 ERA is more than a full run below all estimators, except for a 3.10 xERA, which registers his 6.8% Barrels/BBE and 16 IFFBs. It’s really the 4.7 K-BB% that’s driving the 20.8 K-BB% this year. Striking out fewer batters, Yankee Stadium could be more of a detriment to the extreme fly baller. The Yankees have a 16.9 HR/FB at home and 122 wRC+ vs RHP (also at home), along with just 20.5 K% and 15.6 HR/FB. Verlander is the third best projected pitcher on the board (PlateIQ projections are fluid and subject to change), but a much worse projected value that most other top projected arms tonight. Verlander is just one of many top arms in difficult matchups. To find out which of these pitchers projects best tonight, check out Friday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Luis González (back) scratched Wednesday

Luis González (back) scratched Wednesday

We Don't Expect This Stack to Smash Often, But a Great Matchup Projects Well

On a nine game slate where no team exceeds five implied runs, despite not many particularly strong pitchers, it’ll be interesting to see which stacks players favor tonight. PlateIQ projections (which are fluid and subject to change) suggest the Cubs may be the most popular stack due to a combination of cheap bats and Jared Eickhoff making his first start of the year. He started four games for the Mets last season and allowed 24 runs (19 earned) over 19.2 innings and nine home runs (11 barrels) to just 104 batters with just a 2.9 K-BB%. No other stack has a double digit Ownership percentage on FanDuel. It’s not often that we see this, but it’s not often they face a LHP allowing RHBs a wOBA and xwOBA within a point of .380 in Baltimore, but the Orioles smash the slate most often in simulations tonight, which is somewhere around 14%. Baltimore is also one of the top value stacks, along with Pittsburgh tonight. One of the top rated stacks tonight is a powerhouse offense with a much lower team total than usual. To find out more, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

The Game Where Projections Find Value in Both Offenses

You may get away without needing a lot of value bats, especially on DraftKings, where players can find some quality lower priced pitching, but tonight’s PlateIQ projections (which are fluid and subject to change) suggest players may be able to find that value in one of the top lineups on either site. We find the Orioles essentially tied for the top team total on the board, just below five implied runs, against the very barrel prone Patrick Corbin, whom RHBs are within a point of a .380 wOBA and xwOBA against since last year. While several Baltimore bats (Trey Mancini, Ryan Moutcastle, Cedric Mullins) register as top of the board bats tonight, projections suggest some bottom of the lineup compliments as some of the best values on the board tonight. Robinson Chirinos (96 wRC+, .188 ISO vs LHP since 2021), Richie Martin (88 wRC+) and Tyler Nevin (191 wRC+, .308 ISO) all cost less than $2.5K and are top 10 projected values on DraftKings tonight, while Chirinos and Nevin are also top values near minimum cost on FanDuel as well with Manini (132 wRC+, .205 ISO) doubling as a top bat and value for less than $3K.

Should you believe the O’s may be too popular or are concerned with some troubling weather in the area, projections also suggest turning your attention to the game in Pittsburgh for value. Jerad Eickhoff started four games for the Mets last season and allowed 24 runs (19 earned) over 19.2 innings and nine home runs (11 barrels) to just 104 batters with just a 2.9 K-BB%. He does have a 16.0 K-BB% over 48.1 AAA innings this year, but had better AAA numbers in more innings last year. LHBs had an unholy wOBA and xwOBA above .500 against him last year, making RHBs pale in comparison at just a .323 wOBA and .379 xwOBA. Rafael Ortega (126 wRC+, .173 ISO vs RHP since 2021) is the top projected value at $2.2K on either site. He’s joined by a pair of teammates in Jason Heyward (67 wRC+, .130 ISO) and Alfonso Rivas (105 wRC+, .115 ISO) as top projected DraftKings values, each costing the minimum.

Both sites agree that there may be a couple of top values in the Pittsburgh lineup against Keegan Thompson as well, but not exactly which ones. Thompson struck out nine of 22 Braves in his last start, which is one more than his combined total from his previous four starts. This performance spiked his season strikeout rate over two points to 21.4%. It was his first Quality Start of the season and also only the second time he’s recorded a sixth inning out. Even with all that, he still owns a 4.78 ERA, 4.88 FIP and 4.62 xFIP since making his first start on May 11th. The Pirates will likely line up predominantly left-handed and batters from that side are within a point of a .335 wOBA and xwOBA against Thompson since last season and even if he takes just his customary two trips through the order, the Chicago pen has a 4.94 FIP over the last 30 days. Daniel Vogelbach (123 wRC+, .205 ISO) is the universal value tonight at just above $2.5K on either site. Bryan Reynolds (136 wRC+, .231 ISO) still costs less than $3K on FanDuel, while Jack Suwinski (132 wRC+, .265 ISO) is just $200 above the minimum on DraftKings.

Projections Love Right-Handed Power Against a Pair of Barrel Prone Lefties

No offense exceeds a five run team total on Wednesday night’s nine game slate, though a couple of teams (Angels & Orioles) get really close. Both teams carried a fairly high Smash% yesterday, though only one came through. Baltimore is also the only spot on the slate with weather concerns tonight. Five more teams reach four and a half implied runs or more tonight. Projections are in agreement with the sportsbooks tonight with the Angels and Orioles slightly separating themselves from the rest of the board. We don’t often find many Baltimore bats atop the PlateIQ projections (which are fluid and subject to change), but here we are tonight with no fewer than three top 10 projected bats on DraftKings tonight dressing in Baltimore uniforms. Trey Mancini (132 wRC+, .205 ISO vs LHP since 2021) and Ryan Mountcastle (120 wRC+, .239 ISO) are top of the board projections on both sites tonight against Patrick Corbin, who has allowed multiple barrels in four of his last seven starts and has struck out three or fewer in four of his last six. He’s allowed 23 barrels over his last 10 starts and has just four games this year with an average exit velocity below 90 mph. RHBs are within a point of a .380 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last season and the Orioles will line up predominantly right-handed here, though LHBs have hit him well too (.330 wOBA, .334 xwOBA). Cedric Mullins (103 wRC+, .147 ISO) is a top 10 projected bat on DraftKings, but just misses the cut on FanDuel.

The Angels are the only other offense to register multiple top 10 projected bats tonight and it’s probably easy to guess who that pair is. You probably thought Ohtani before realizing he was pitching, but Mike Trout (182 wRC+, .209 ISO) is the top projected bat on the board tonight, while Taylor Ward (153 wRC+, .198 ISO) is third. Daniel Lynch has busted out by striking out 17 of his last 45 batters with an 18.1 SwStr%. Enthusiasm is dampened a bit by recognizing that it was the Orioles and A’s, while he still allowed five runs over 10.1 innings. This does raise his season strikeout rate to 22.4% with a more impressive 13.0 SwStr%, but that’s really the only bright spot in a profile that also includes a 9.3 BB%, 91.3 mph EV and 8.7% Barrels/BBE. He has just one Quality Start, both because that’s the only time he’s completed six innings and because he’s allowed at least four earned runs five times. Non-DRA estimators are all more than half a run below his 5.19 ERA (.327 BABIP), though none stretch a full run. You may even consider rostering a low priced Lynch in a high upside spot here, but you’d also be nuts if you didn’t roster some top Angel RHBs against him. Batters from that side have a .368 wOBA and xwOBA just one point less against Lynch since last year.

Both High Floors and Upside in the Middle to Lower Parts of the Board

Players may be able to find some reasonable pitching choices at lower prices tonight, even on a one pitcher site like FanDuel. Adam Wainwright has completed six innings in eight of his last nine starts (seven Quality Starts). A board topping 21.6 CStr% gives him some leniency with a 6.5 SwStr%, but he’s still just producing an 18.5 K% this season and has exceeded five strikeouts in just two of his last 10 starts. He’s been able to suppress barrels well (6.7%), but just five of 16 have left the yard (6.7 HR/FB). Non-FIP estimators are around a run or more above his 3.06 ERA. If playing Wainwright for less than $8K, you’re in this for the floor, not the ceiling, even though he projects as the fourth best value on FanDuel currently. Milwaukee is a neutral run environment with the roof closed, which we want to make sure it is if rostering him. They also have a 101 wRC+, but 23.7 K% vs RHP.

Shane Baz’s 2022 debut caused some concern with reduced velocity, while walking three of 12 Twins with a home run allowed, while only striking out two. His second made us laugh that we were ever concerned because he followed it up with a velocity increase as he struck out seven of 21 Orioles without a walk or a run allowed. It’s easy to forget he still only has five major league regular season starts, but a 25.6 K-BB% will certainly do and with 76 pitches last time out, he’s probably already built up as far as the Rays are probably willing to let him go. He’s barely above $7K on FanDuel in a great park, but a tough matchup (Yankees 121 wRC+, 20.5 K%, 15.4 HR/FB vs RHP). Baz is tonight’s sixth best projected value on FanDuel.

Daniel Lynch has busted out by striking out 17 of his last 45 batters with an 18.1 SwStr%. Enthusiasm is dampened a bit by recognizing that it was the Orioles and A’s, while he still allowed five runs over 10.1 innings. This does raise his season strikeout rate to 22.4% with a more impressive 13.0 SwStr%, but that’s really the only bright spot in a profile that also includes a 9.3 BB%, 91.3 mph EV and 8.7% Barrels/BBE. He has just one Quality Start, both because that’s the only time he’s completed six innings and because he’s allowed at least four earned runs five times. Non-DRA estimators are all more than half a run below his 5.19 ERA (.327 BABIP), though none stretch a full run. However, the Angels have just a 91 wRC+ and 24 K% vs LHP this year and Lynch costs $7.5K as the fifth best projected value on FanDuel. He may make a more interesting SP2 in DK GPPs for just $6K though.

Over on DraftKings, George Kirby ($6.6K) is the second best projected value and a great SP2 choice in Oakland. It hasn’t been a straight path, but half of Kirby’s first eight starts have been Quality Starts, including three of the last four. Strikeouts have been the most inconsistent, as he’s repeated only one total (three) between one and nine, but he’s walked just five to give him 20.1 K-BB% generating a matching 3.33 SIERA and xFIP. With 9.8% Barrels/BBE and a 16.0 HR/FB, contact inclusive estimators are a bit higher with his FIP (4.06) breaking four. What we really like is that he’s facing one of the weakest offenses in baseball (A’s 72 wRC+, 23.6 K%, 7.8 HR/FB vs RHP) in one of the best parks.

Jordan Montgomery is the proud owner of a 14.3 SwStr% (14.8% last 30 days) and five straight Quality Starts, over which he’s allowed a total of seven runs. Yet, he somehow hasn’t exceeded five strikeouts in a single start yet. A 19.4 K% with that high a SwStr% (1.36 K/SwStr) is unheard of this deep into the season. It absolutely has to improve and when you pair it with a 3.8 BB% and 5.6% Barrels/BBE, Montgomery may go from good (all estimators below four) to great. Normally, you’d expect his 2.72 ERA to regress (.245 BABIP, 81.3 LOB%), but in case, perhaps we should expect his estimators to. The Rays (105 wRC+) have just an 18.6 K% vs LHP, but also just an 8.4 HR/FB. Montgomery may not increase his strikeout rate in this spot, but is still too cheap on DK.

Difficult Conditions for Tonight's Top Priced Arm

A nine game Wednesday night slate features Carlos Rodon as the only $10K pitcher on both sites tonight. He struck out eight batters for the second consecutive start last time out, most recently over eight shutout innings in Pittsburgh. Without a run allowed over his last 14 innings, he appears to have fully rebounded from a five start stretch with a 6.00 ERA and estimators well above four (19.5 K%). Rodon’s back up to a 30.5 K% (second best on the board). His 5.6 HR/FB may not be sustainable, but he’s only allowed nine barrels (5.0%) with non-FIP estimators ranging from a 2.90 xERA to a 3.25 SIERA. Problematically, he’s pitching in Atlanta tonight, where it’s hot with winds blowing out to left and there’s a hitter friendly umpire against a predominantly right-handed lineup that owns a 126 wRC+ vs LHP this year. Optimistically, the Braves also have a 23.8 K% vs LHP. Rodon is currently the second best projected pitcher on the board, but outside the top five projected values on either site. To find out which pitcher is not only the top projected pitcher on the slate, but top projected value, check out Wednesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

The Only Offense Currently with a Double Digit Smash%

As somewhat expected with no offensive separation on a 13 game slate without a single team above five and a half implied runs and three essentially tied at the top with 5.3 run team totals, no stack is expected to be extremely popular tonight. The Red Sox, Pirates and Angels (two of the teams tied at the top of the board and the other with some of the top value bats on the board) are all currently projected to barely reach double digit stack ownership on DraftKings (although this is a fluid situation, which is subject to change), while no single stack currently projects for double digit FanDuel ownership. The Angels are the smash simulation winners today and the only team projected in double digits, but barely more than one percentage point ahead of the Red Sox. It’s already been expressed that the Pittsburgh lineup should contain a lot of value against Matt Swarmer’s 10 home runs allowed to just 88 batters. Their value projection is more than twice any other stack on DraftKings currently. The A’s actually own the top Value% on FanDuel with the Pirates the only other stack in double digits. This actually creates a dynamic where the two highest rated stacks have implied run lines less than four and a half. For much more on this, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Tons of Value Against Pitcher Who Has Allowed 10 HRs to 88 Batters

PlateIQ projections (which are fluid and subject to change) are quite clear on where they believe the value bats lie tonight and that’s in Pittsburgh with the home team against Matt Swarmer, who has allowed home runs to 10 of the 88 batters he’s faced. He’s allowed only nine barrels, but that’s still 14.8% of his contact. His ground ball rate has been below 30% in three of his four starts and his average exit velocity has been above 92 mph in each of his last two. On a more positive note, he’s striking out batters at a league average rate (21.6%) with an extremely impressive 13.6 SwStr%, though he still doesn’t have an estimator below four and a half yet. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .350 wOBA against him, though RHBs exceed a .400 wOBA and xwOBA. Never the less, it’s LHBs that top the board in terms of point per dollar projections. In fact, the top three on either site are Pirates (though not the same three). O’Neil Cruz (169 wRC+ in 14 career PAs) and Daniel Vogelbach (121 wRC+, .206 ISO vs RHP since 2021) are top three projected values for less than $3K on either site. Jack Suwinski (135 wRC+, .270 ISO) is the top projected value on DraftKings for just $100 more than the minimum. Bryan Reynolds (136 wRC+, .232 ISO), somehow, still costs less than $3K on FanDuel. Bligh Madris, who made his major league debut yesterday and still costs the minimum on either site projects as a top 10 value too.

The Oakland A’s also project a pair of top values on FanDuel tonight. Chad Pinder (124 wRC+, .206 ISO vs LHP since last season) is projected to lead off and if he does, he’d be a top projected value on either site at less than $2.5K. Ramon Laureano (153 wRC+, .180 ISO) costs exactly $2.5K on FanDuel. We haven’t normally seen many Oakland bats project well, no matter the cost, especially in such a pitcher friendly park, but Marco Gonzales has just a 4.8 K-BB% with 19 barrels allowed this season. He doesn’t have a single estimator within a run and a half of his season 3.41 ERA. RHBs have a .330 wOBA and .337 xwOBA against him since last year.

Projections Currently Targeting a Pair of Rookie Pitchers

We’re looking at a pretty standard 13 game slate with five teams reaching a five run team total, though nobody exceeding five and a half implied runs with six more around four and a half runs or higher. Without any overwhelming offense favored by sportsbooks, we should find the projections simply favoring the best hitters in the best matchups and that’s exactly what we do see with only two teams placing multiple batters among the top 10 projections on either site. The top projected bat on the board is the greatest player of the last decade, Mike Trout (195 wRC+, .385 ISO vs RHP since 2021) and he’s joined by two teammates in last year’s MVP, Shoehi Ohtani (147 wRC+, .288 ISO) and this year’s breakout, Taylor Ward (139 wRC+, .232 ISO) atop the board against Kansas City’s Jon Heasley, who failed to strike out more batters than he walked in each of his first four starts, but has struck out 16 of 69 with just four walks since then. The bad news is that he’s done this with just a 9.4 SwStr%, so it’s probably not sustainable, as he hasn’t had a double digit SwStr% since his first start. It’s been a .245 BABIP and 82.6 LOB% that have kept his ERA (3.72) more than a run and a half below estimators, while batters from either side exceed a .360 xwOBA against him.

The Boston Red Sox are the only other offense to place multiple batters among the top 10 projections by PlateIQ tonight. They like Rafael Devers (164 wRC+, .324 ISO vs RHP since LY) and J.D. Martinez (140 wRC+, .227 ISO) to do the most damage against Beau Brieske. Both exceed a 150 wRC+ over the last 30 days. Brieske has struck out 15 to his last 70 batters (three walks), allowing just two runs over 18.2 innings against powerhouses like the Yankees and Blue Jays (and Rangers). However, when your HR/FB (16.7%) and Barrels/BBE (11.6%) are fairly close to your strikeout rate through 10 starts (16.4%), it’s probably not a good thing. Right now, a .231 BABIP and 85.4 LOB% are the only things keeping his ERA below three without an estimator below four and a half. He does have a sizeable reverse split so far (RHBs .365 wOBA, LHBs .251), which is mostly confirmed by Statcast (RHBs .435 xwOBA, LHBs .308), but that shouldn’t be too much of a problem for Devers. Both the Red Sox and Angels are essentially tied atop the board with the Twins (at home against Aaron Civale) at 5.3 implied runs.

A Couple of Mid-Range, HIgh Upside Arms

With several flawed, struggling and/or regressing arms at the top of the board, it might not be the worst idea to pay down for pitching tonight, especially in GPPs with a couple of high upside arms costing less than $9K. One guy who may have the stuff to stand on his own on FanDuel ($7.7K) is Roansy Contreras. He has allowed eight runs (six earned) over his last nine innings, but his last start was certainly his worst with a season/career high three walks to just two strikeouts. He may not yet be a finished product, but you can certainly see the upside in a 25.2 K% and 13.2 SwStr% through 32 innings without too much to complain about in the overall numbers, though the barrel rate is a bit high (12.2%), resulting in his only estimator above four (4.38 xERA). It’s hitter friendly weather in a generally pitcher friendly park in Pittsburgh tonight, but that may be neutralized by a pitcher friendly umpire. We also like the matchup against the Cubs here (96 wRC+, 23.3 K% vs RHP). Contreras is the second best projected value on FanDuel and fourth best value on DraftKings, where he’s even a bit cheaper.

Spencer Strider has a similar overall projection at a slightly higher price tag. He’s also in a much tougher spot, facing the Giants (107 wRC+, 22.3 K%, 10.4 BB% vs RHP) in Atlanta with temperatures in the mid-90s with a more hitter friendly umpire. It’s extremely rare for a pitcher to throw his four-seam fastball 69.7% of the time and make it work in a starting role, but with an improved slider (25.3% with a 51.2 Whiff%) Strider has been doing just that for now. He’s struck out 31 of 81 over four starts with exactly half his contact on the ground and an 85.9 mph EV. The only issue is that he’s walked 10 as well. Perhaps it’ll be a problem when he runs through the division a couple of times, but he all non-FIP estimators are within one-third of a run of his 2.45 ERA and the Giants haven’t seen him yet.

At bottom of the board prices, we’re seeing guys like James Kaprielian, Reid Detmers and Marco Gonzales show up near the top of the board in point per dollar projections, but we’re talking about low upside arms, high risk arms for the most part. Thirteen of Kaprielian’s 27 strikeouts have come in just two of his nine starts, resulting in a 4.9 K-BB%, while he’s allowed nine home runs over his last six starts and multiple barrels in four straight. His 6.31 ERA matches his FIP (6.49) and all other estimators are well above five as well, while the Mariners have a 108 wRC+ and 22.2 K% vs RHP. The upside is that it’s a great park and Seattle has a 62 wRC+ over the last week. BABIP wizard (.199) Detmers struck out a season high six of 18 Dodgers in his last start, but did so with just an 8.4 SwStr% and also allowed multiple home runs for the fourth time this year and third time in his last five starts. He’s only gone beyond five innings one other time besides his no-hitter and gave up five runs in that effort. Suddenly, he can’t find the plate either, walking eight of his last 57 batters. All estimators are above his 4.25 ERA with a 4.44 xERA being the only one within even half a run. The Royals are a great run prevention matchup (90 wRC+), but with a board low 17.5 K% against southpaws. Gonzales is running a 4.8 K-BB% with 12 of his 19 barrels (8.4%) leaving the park. The rate of barrels itself isn’t so much worse than average, but with the poor walk and strikeout rates, there’s so many more of them, even with an 87.8 mph EV, and often with men on base. Somehow, he’s produced six Quality Starts in his last nine tries with an ERA two runs below estimators over that span (.229 BABIP, 83 LOB%). He doesn’t have a single estimator within a run and a half of his season 3.41 ERA. However, great park and matchup (A’s 92 wRC+, 23.8 K% vs LHP).

Regressing Pitcher is Also the Top Projected Arm on the Board

A 13 game Tuesday night board features just two currently regressing pitchers above $10K (on both sites), a few arms coming off long IL stints, some spot starters and maybe a bullpen game or two. You may have to work a bit harder for your pitching choices on Tuesday than you did on Monday, when nearly every pitcher on the slate was viable. Regression doesn’t mean a pitcher who is garnering results well above their performance is suddenly going to produce ones well below that to even things out. It generally happens in the way it has to Nestor Cortes. Over the last month (five starts), he has just a 21.8 K% with a 10.1 SwStr% that’s the same as it is for the season (10.2%). That’s probably closer to what we should expect going forward, with maybe a few more strikeouts. Even then, his 82.7 LOB% is keeping his ERA (2.73) below estimators over the last month. We can certainly give him some credit for managing contact well this season (34.5 GB%, 15.7 IFFB%, 5.6% Barrels/BBE), which gives him contact inclusive estimators below three, but contact neutral estimators around three and a half for the season. Cortes is the most expensive pitcher on either site and does get a park upgrade against a banged up Tampa Bay lineup, but the Rays have just an 18.5 K% vs LHP this year. Cortes is PlateIQ’s top projected pitcher currently and a top four projected value on either site, which says more about the state of pitching on this slate than anything else. Contrary to Monday night, we can find major flaws in nearly every top of the board pitcher tonight. Too see how the rest of them match up, check out Tuesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Tonight's Slate Belongs to Two Offenses, But Other Stacks Project Value Too

Monday night is a very pitching heavy slate with a couple of clear top offenses at the top of the board. Early stacking projections suggest that Angels and Red Sox stacks are going to be more than twice as popular as any other on either site. No surprise, they also smash the slate in simulations around 50% more often than any other offense with the Angels a bit ahead of the Red Sox. Kris Bubic has recorded a single sixth inning out over eight starts (28 innings pitched) with a mere 4.5 K-BB% and 10.9% Barrels/BBE. It’s hard not to love any lineup he’s facing. Angels are also cheap enough, with the exception of Mike Trout, that they also project as the best value stack on FanDuel currently (although projections are fluid and update throughout the day), but aren’t too far ahead of the Tigers and Diamondbacks, two poor, but cheap offenses in marginal spots. The Tigers are the overwhelming top projected value stack on DraftKings. They aren’t good, but they are cheap in a hitter friendly park (though pitcher friendly weather), facing a spot starting rookie, who is making just his third major league start. Are Boston and Los Angeles stacks going to be too popular to lean on in GPPs tonight? Projections differ by site, but also believe there are better options on both sites. To find out more, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Where to Find the Value in Tonight's Top Lineups

Figuring out which bats you want to roster (at least for cash games) is pretty obvious tonight. The Angels and Red Sox separate quite a bit at the top of the board. The question is how you’re going to afford them because there’s a lot of great, but also a lot of expensive pitching on the board. PlateIQ projections on FanDuel (which are fluid and subject to change) suggest you can stack the top lineups with some room to spare with a few alterations. Taylor Ward (143 wRC+, .176 ISO vs RHP since 2021) is not only a top five overall projected bat, but the second best projected value on FanDuel for just $3K against Kris Bubic, who batters from either side of the plate exceed a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against since lsat season. Shohei Ohtani (134 wRC+, .306 ISO) pulls double duty as well for a reasonable $3.6K. So now you need some cheaper Angels to help offset Mike Trout ($4.2K). Projections suggest Luis Rengifo (82 wRC+) and Max Stassi (71 wRC+) for less than $2.5K. The latter has a 122 wRC+ over the last 30 days.

Projections also place five Boston bats among the top overall projections, but you are not going to be able to afford them without sacrificing in other areas. Jarren Duran (87 wRC+, .157 ISO vs RHP since 2021) pulls double duty as a top overall projected bat and value for $2.7K on FanDuel, while Xander Bogaerts (139 wRC+, .197 ISO) costs just $3.4K against Alex Faedo, whom batters from either side of the plate are between a .325 and .370 wOBA and xwOBA against. For affordability though, projections suggest substituting Franchy Cordero (57 wRC+) for one of the other three for just $2.3K.

While Rengifo and Juan Lagares (90 wRC+, .194 ISO) are also top projected values on DraftKings for less than $2.5K, projections for that site suggest you’re going to have to find most of your lineup value in other places, namely in Pittsburgh. J.T. Brubaker is actually a top projected mound value tonight, but that’s more due to cost and matchup. DK projections also suggest players can find quite a bit of value in Cubs’ bats. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .325 and .345 wOBA against Brubaker since last year, but the projected value comes from the left-hand side here. Rafael Ortega (126 wRC+, .176 ISO) is the top projected point per dollar DraftKings value tonight with Jason Heyward (68 wRC+) and Alfonso Rivas (110 wRC+) very close behind, all costing exactly the minimum ($2K).

The Detroit Tigers also project two top value bats in Robbie Grossman (90 wRC+ vs RHP since 2021) and Spencer Torkelson (72 wRC+) for less than $2.5K against rookie Josh Winckowski, who has two major league starts that have lasted eight innings, striking out just seven of 38 batters with a 90.8 mph EV, but 55.6% of his contact on the ground. He’s exceeded a 50% ground ball rate at nearly every level of play and owns a 20+ K-BB% over 54.2 AAA innings. In this very small sample, he has an extremely wide reverse split with RHBs above a .400 wOBA and LHBs just below .300. Statcast only narrows this a few points on either side too.