DFS Alerts

Top Offenses Also Loaded with Value on Friday Night

Arizona bats are not priced up for Coors on FanDuel. In addition to carrying several top of the board projected bats, four of the top five projected values on FanDuel are Diamondbacks, including the only two to project above 5.0 P/$ tonight. Antonio Senzatela has just a 9.8 K% over eight home starts this year. With a modest 44.3 GB% and 90.5 mph EV, Senzatela has allowed just 11 barrels (5.1%) with just four leaving the yard (6.9 HR/FB). Neither of those things seems very sustainable. While a .399 BABIP may regress the power numbers against him should increase. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .332 and .349 wOBA and xwOBA against Senzatela this year. Alek Thomas (119 wRC+, .206 ISO vs RHP since LY) is not only one of the top projected bats on the board, but top projected FD value. David Peralta (103 wRC+, .172 ISO), Ketel Marte (112 wRC+, .159 ISO) and Josh Rojas (95 wRC+, .142 ISO) all cost less than $3K as well. In fact, the entire projected Arizona lineup costs $3.1K or less. DraftKings makes it a bit tougher with their top projected Arizona values near the bottom of the lineup in Buddy Kennedy (34 wRC+), who is the top projected DK value at $2.2K, and Carson Kelly (49 wRC+) at $2.1K.

The Minnesota Twins also combine top projected bats with top projected values tonight. Over 35 innings, Spenser Watkins has just a 1.3 K-BB%, 90.1 Z-Contact%, 90.6 mph EV and 9.7% Barrels/BBE. He hasn’t gone beyond the fifth inning in any of nine starts without an estimator below five and a half. LHBs exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last season, while RHBs are above .400. Stacks can combine the top projected bat on the board in Byron Buxton (154 wRC+, .342 ISO) with a top projected value on either site for less than $2.5K in Nick Gordon (93 wRC+, .150 ISO) in a wrap-around stack. Ryan Jeffers (65 wRC+, .173 ISO) costs less than $2.5K on DraftKings. Gary Sanchez (101 wRC+, .211 ISO) and Max Kepler (116 wRC+, .215 ISO) cost less than $3K on FanDuel.

Carlos Santana (78 wRC+) and Abraham Toro (85 wRC+, .181 ISO) both project as top 10 values on FanDuel for less than $2.5K against James Kaprielian (LHBs .375 wOBA, .388 xwOBA since 2021), while Stephen Piscotty (105 wRC+) and Nick Allen (143 wRC+, .294 ISO) project as a pair of top DraftKings values on the other side of this matchup against Marco Gonzales (RHBs .328 wOBA, .333 xwOBA since last season). A trio of Tigers also project as top 10 DK values against Brad Keller (batters from either side between a .339 and .369 wOBA and xwOBA since LY). Victor Reyes (78 wRC+), Riley Greene (130 wRC+) and Spencer Torkelson (69 wRC+) all cost less than $2.5K.

These Two Offenses Projected to Crush Great Spots

Friday night’s six game slate features six offenses separating themselves from the rest of the board at 4.9 implied runs or more with no other offense the 4.5 run team total barrier. This slate features a game at Coors and Spenser Watkins, whom it is like a game at Coors when facing. While the Rockies actually top the board at 5.88 implied runs, PlateIQ projections (which are fluid and subject to change) aren’t as smitten with the home team as they are the road team in this affair (Diamondbacks 5.62). Three Arizona hitters project as top 10 bats on either site tonight. Antonio Senzatela has just a 9.8 K% over eight home starts this year. With a modest 44.3 GB% and 90.5 mph EV, Senzatela has allowed just 11 barrels (5.1%) with just four leaving the yard (6.9 HR/FB). Neither of those things seems very sustainable. While a .399 BABIP may regress the power numbers against him should increase. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .332 and .349 wOBA and xwOBA against Senzatela this year. Ketel Marte (112 wRC+, .159 ISO vs RHP since 2021), Alek Thomas (119 wRC+, .206 ISO) and Christian Walker (91 wRC+, .203 ISO) are all top of the board projected bats tonight.

That’s not the only offense current projections love though, as we also find three Twins (5.47) among the top 10. Byron Buxton (154 wRC+, .342 ISO) is the top projected bat on the board. Over 35 innings, Spenser Watkins has just a 1.3 K-BB%, 90.1 Z-Contact%, 90.6 mph EV and 9.7% Barrels/BBE. He hasn’t gone beyond the fifth inning in any of nine starts without an estimator below five and a half. LHBs exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last season, while RHBs are above .400. Buxton is joined atop the projections by Carlos Correa (135 wRC+, .218 ISO) and Jorge Polanco (126 wRC+, .225 ISO). Top of the board projections fill out merely with three AL MVP candidates in Aaron Judge, Mike Trout and Yordan Alvarez.

This Matchup May Contain Two Most Under-Valued Pitchers on the Board

The top of the board gives you plenty to think about tonight. Great pitchers in a great spots, highly volatile ones in highly volatile spots and also weather, but the middle of the board offers some value too. Alex Cobb has struck out just six of 36 batters (Reds & Pirates) since his latest return from the IL, but a 5.48 ERA is quite humorous (though not to him) in combination with a 19.5 K-BB%, 62.3 GB%, 87.1 mph EV and 2.3% Barrels/BBE. Five of his three barrels have left the yard. No, that does not make any sense on any level, but that’s the point. Non-FIP estimators (17.9 HR/FB) range from a 2.33 xERA to a 3.05 DRA. The legitimate downside here is that he’s only completed six innings this season, partially because he keeps getting injured and has to build back up. The White Sox have been poor (89 wRC+, 7.4 HR/FB), but contact prone (20.4 K%) against RHP this year. Even with the workload concern, Cobb is the only pitcher to project above 4.0 P/$ on FanDuel currently, costing just $7.6K. He projects as just the eighth best value, but still viable, at $8.3K on DraftKings.

Opposing Cobb, Lance Lynn struck out a season high eight of 29 Orioles with his velocity a tick higher than his first two starts. He’s now struck out 17 of 73 batters with a 15.2 SwStr% and just three walks. With three of his four barrels (7.8%) leaving the yard, along with a .354 BABIP and 52.9 LOB%, his 6.19 ERA is more than a run above all estimators, ranging widely from a 3.32 SIERA & xFIP to a 5.08 xERA in a small sample, but his latest effort should produce more optimism than concern, despite the ugly final line. Should the underlying numbers stabilize where they are, and they’re just about at stabilization points, it would point to Lynn being back to his standard form and running a price tag we won’t see him at for much longer. The Giants have a 107 wRC+ and 22.6 K% vs RHP, but Lynn projects as a top five value on either site for less than $8K.

Do not despair at Blake Snell’s surprisingly low 24.4 K%, as his 13.4 SwStr% is higher than last year and right in line with his career rate (13.6%). The walks are still a major problem (12.2%), allowing him to only complete six innings twice in seven starts, but the 5.60 ERA is a product of his 58.6 LOB%. Estimators range from a 3.78 FIP to a 4.34 xFIP and would drop even lower with an increase in strikeouts. Snell does not project particularly well against the Dodgers (106 wRC+, 22.2 K% vs LHP), but is a reasonable GPP risk in the $8K range.

Considering those who may play well in an SP2 spot on DraftKings, Brad Keller may have pitched his way out of some rotations by now, but not the Royals, despite a career low 15.3 K% without much improvement in any other area. Despite a solid walk rate (7.8%) and nearly half of his contact on the ground (49.6%), limiting barrels to 6.2% of contact, he’s failed to allow at least three runs in just one of his last nine starts. The 68.5 LOB% is a bit low, but his best estimator is still a worse than league average 4.23 xERA. The only appeals here are cost ($5.7K) and matchup (Tigers 68 wRC+, 24.1 K%, 6.7 HR/FB vs RHP). Keller is the top projected value on DraftKings currently, but also has the riskiest weather forecast on the slate. James Kaprielian has walked more batter than he’s struck out in five of his 11 starts (5.3 K-BB%) and has allowed 9.1% Barrels/BBE without completing six innings in any single start. He does not possess a single estimator below five, but does have one above six (6.11 FIP). He doesn’t even have a particularly friendly matchup (Mariners 108 wRC+, 22.2 K% vs RHP), but cost ($5.5K) plus a favorable park and umpire give him the third best point per dollar value projection on DK tonight. J.P. Crawrod is also serving his suspension tonight. These are not attractive pay downs and more like pitcher punts, who should only be necessary if you’re planning on paying up for SP1 with a top offense.

Top Strikeout Rate in a Great Spot Likely Drives Up Ownership

A moderate sized 10 game slate on Friday offers two pitchers above $10K on both sites with another exceeding that mark only on DraftKings. A 32.4 K% for Corbin Burnes tops the slate. He’s failed to produce a Quality Start only three times since his first of the season, completing seven innings in half (seven) of those starts. Home runs are up a bit this year with 12 (14.3 HR/FB), but he’s only registered two barrels that haven’t left the yard with just 34.8% of his contact at 95 mph EV or above. A 26.7 K-BB% produces non-FIP estimators that are all above, but within half a run of his 2.41 ERA. Despite the single batter barrage a few Pirates have gone on over the last few weeks (three players with three homer games), this is still an offense with just an 88 wRC+ and 25.0 K% vs RHP. The latter number, the second highest split on the board. This combination of factors gives him the top pitcher projection tonight as well as the second best point per dollar projection on either site. Expect Burnes to be quite popular tonight. Burnes is the most expensive pitcher on the board on FanDuel, but only second most expensive on DraftKings. For more on possible pivots, as well as a potential slate breaker, check out Friday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Jed Lowrie (shoulder) placed on 10-day IL.

Jed Lowrie (shoulder) placed on 10-day IL.

Jason Heyward (knee) placed on 10-day IL.

Jason Heyward (knee) placed on 10-day IL.

The Surprising Stack Projected to Smash the Slate Tonight

On a five game slate where the Cubs are the only team above five implied runs, separating themselves by nearly half a run from the rest of the board, it’s a bit of a surprise that they’re currently projected for less than 20% stack ownership on either site. In fact, half of the team teams on FanDuel are projected between 11.0% and 16.0% ownership. On a seven game DraftKings slate, the Cubs and Brewers (4.7 team run total) are a bit above the rest of the pack. Simulations believe that it’s actually the Cincinnati Reds are smashing the slate most often tonight with the wind blowing out against Kyle Hendricks, who has struck out exactly six in three straight, but has still allowed 10% Barrels/BBE this year with much more elevated contact than usual. Still, the Reds merely separate themselves from the rest of the pack by just a few points. There are also several cheap bats in that Cincy projected lineup, making them the top projected value stack as well on either site, though closely followed by the A’s on FanDuel and the Brewers and Cubs on DraftKings. Despite all the smashing and value, Cincinnati stacks are not the top rated stacks tonight. To find out who currently is, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Why Does This Guy Still Cost Less Than $3K?

Whether it’s the five game FanDuel or seven game DraftKings slate, projections for both sites somewhat agree there’s some value in the Chicago and Pittsburgh lineups tonight. Rafael Ortega (129 wRC+, .180 ISO vs RHP since LY) currently tops the FanDuel board at a whopping 5.08 P/$ projection at a cost of $2.3K against Graham Ashcraft, who’s reverse split sees RHBs holding a mere .220 wOBA (.256 xwOBA) against him in a small sample. Ortega is a top 10 projected value on both sites tonight with the wind blowing out fairly strongly at Wrigley tonight, although he’s joined on that list by a couple of different teammates. Alfonso Rivas (107 wRC+, .120 ISO) is the top projected DraftKings value bat tonight at minimum cost ($2K). Ian Happ (115 wRC+, .213 ISO) doubles as a top overall bat and projected point per dollar value at $3K on FanDuel.

While both sites also agree there’s some value in the Pittsburgh projected lineup, where that value may lie differs. Adrian Houser has just a 15.6 K% (6.1 SwStr%) over his last seven starts and is down to 17.6% (7.2 SwStr%) and 8.3 K-BB% on the year. Mostly what the Brewers employ him for are ground balls and while that’s down too this year, a 48.1% mark is still well above average, allowing him to suppress barrels (5.1%). However, he’s also working with a .309 BABIP and 61.9 LOB% that counteracts his 9.1 HR/FB so that all non-FIP estimators are within half a run of his 4.50 ERA. Houser carries a large natural split (LHBs .347 wOBA, .339 xwOBA). Why does Bryan Reynolds (139 wRC+, .243 ISO) still cost less than $3K on FD? Josh VanMeter (71 wRC+, .143 ISO) Is just $200 above the minimum. On DK, Daniel Vogelbach (127 wRC+, .215 ISO) is $2.6K and Hoy Park (61 wRC+) costs the minimum.

With only five games on the slate, you’ll also find a pair of Rays projected among the top six values against Yusei Kikuchi, who has allowed nine of his 13 home runs over his last five starts with multiple home runs in four of those five games without completing five innings once. He now has a 21.3 HR/FB, but with only half of his barrels (16.9%) leaving the yard. Add in a 13.5 BB% (43.2 Z-O-Swing%) and his 25.5 K% is not going nearly as far as it should. More than half his contact has been at least 95 mph off the bat and his lowest estimator is a 4.40 SIERA. Harold Ramirez (135 wRC+, .136 ISO) and Yandy Diaz (126 wRC+, .160 ISO) are both within $200 of $2.5K. On DraftKings, Kolten Wong (114 wRC+, .192 ISO) and Jace Peterson (101 wRC+, .164 ISO) costs $3K or less against J.T. Brubaker (LHBs .340 wOBA, .320 xwOBA since LY).

Weather Conditions Push This Offense Up the Board

Whether it’s a five game FanDuel or seven game DraftKings slate tonight, the Chicago Cubs are the lone team above five implied runs tonight, separating themselves from the Blue Jays by nearly half a run and this probably has more to do with weather than anything else, as the Cincinnati Reds own the third highest team total on the board tonight at 4.76 runs. A trio of Blue Jays project among the best bats on FanDuel tonight against, well, Matt Wisler and whomever the Rays have available to throw behind him, as Tampa Bay has not yet let their plans be known. Vladimir Guerroro Jr. (157 wRC+, .274 ISO vs RHP since 2021) is the top projected FD bat tonight with George Springer (134 wRC+, .274 ISO) and Alejandro Kirk (135 wRC+, .183 ISO) not too far behind. Guerrero is just the fifth best projected bat on DraftKings (Springer 10th) with the two extra games available.

Both sites also include a pair of Milwaukee Brewers among tonight’s top 10 projected bats. Home runs are not the problem for J.T. Brubaker. In fact, his 10.3 HR/FB is a full point better than league average and three of his nine came in a single start. He’s also only allowed 16 barrels (6.9%). His 22.0 K% is just two points lower than last year, but the problem is that his walk rate has increased by nearly two points as well (9.0%), decreasing his K-BB (13%) by nearly four points. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .320 and .340 wOBA and xwOBA against Brubaker since last season. Current projections like Christian Yelich (109 wRC+, .130 ISO) and Rowdy Tellez (107 wRC+, .225 ISO) to do the most damage.

A pair of Cubs are also top projected FanDuel bats with the wind blowing out at Wrigley against Graham Ashcraft, who isn’t missing bats (15.8 K%, 8.5 SwStr%), but is doing nearly everything else at an elite rate (4.1 BB%, 57.5 GB%, 85.2 mph EV, 4.4% Barrels/BBE), affording him a 3.27 ERA and nearly matching 3.22 xERA. Ashcraft has produced a massive reverse split (LHBs .220 wOBA, .256 xwOBA), but projections still favor the left-handed production of Ian Happ (115 wRC+, .213 ISO) and Rafael Ortega (129 wRC+, .180 ISO) against him.

Only available on DraftKings, Aaron Judge (161 wRC+, ,281 ISO) and Giancarlo Stanton (135 wRC+, .262 ISO) are top projected bats, despite Luis Garcia holding RHBs to a .256 wOBA (.308 xwOBA). He only has five Quality Starts on the season because he suffers a significant decline after two trips through the order and this has generally limited a lot of his outings. His rate starts are fantastic (18.9 K-BB%), though that third time through penalty shows up in the 8.2% Barrels/BBE he’s allowed. Batting in the top half of the order, Judge and Stanton may be able to take advantage of that third time through decline.

There's a Reason You're Paying Up For Pitching Tonight

We have to consider that a lot of FanDuel players will be paying up for Logan Gilbert against the A’s tonight or even Joe Musgrove at Dodger Stadium tonight because the pickings get slim real fast on a 10 pitcher slate tonight (it’s a bit stronger on DraftKings with four more pitchers available). Current PlateIQ projections for FanDuel (which are fluid and subject to change) suggest that Mitch White is the top value at $6.7K, opposing Musgrove. He has produced a modest 22.1 K% and 14.0 K-BB% over five starts, though with just 37.3% of his contact on the ground and a 91.8 mph EV. Four of his eight barrels (9.6%) have left the yard this season overall (including relief work). The Dodgers have pulled him around the 70-75 pitch range in each of his last three starts, so this is less a point of building up rather than they just don’t want a batting order to see him a third time. His 4.25 ERA is a bit above estimators ranging as low as a 3.74 SIERA, while stranding just 69.1% of runners. The workload is problematic on FD, but that’s likely baked into the low cost. The Padres have just a 97 wRC+, 22.1 K% and 8.1 HR/FB vs RHP this year. White also appears to be a fine SP2 on DK for just $6.4K.

Adrian Martinez threw 5.1 innings of shutout ball in his major league debut, striking out three of 21 Tigers without a walk and 85.1 mph EV. The 25 year-old came over in the Sean Manaea trade just a few months ago without any prospect pedigree or even a Future Value grade on his Fangraphs page. He did have an impressive 18.1 K-BB% in 64 AAA innings this year, but just 11.2% over 44.1 there last year. He projects as the third best value on FanDuel for $6.2K in Seattle (107 wRC+, 22.3 K% vs RHP). You can suddenly see why Logan Gilbert currently projects around 50% ownership on FanDuel tonight.

In terms of additional SP2 arms on DraftKings (look away now if you have a weak stomach), Kyle Hendricks costs just $5.1K against the Reds (87 wRC+, 23.0 K% vs RHP, 75 wRC+, 7.4 HR/FB on the road). He has struck out exactly six batters in three straight starts after having struck out more than two in just two of his previous eight. His newly rediscovered strikeout ability, which does come with an increase in SwStr%, still has him at just 17.2% on the season. He’s no longer a ground ball pitcher (36.3%), who excels at suppressing barrels (10%) either. He does still limit the free passes at least (6.6%). Hendricks has just three Quality Starts all season, completing seven innings in each without completing six innings in any other. His 4.90 ERA is within one-third of a run of all estimators. Also an issue are the double digit winds blowing out at Wrigley tonight.

Ian Anderson has increased his strikeout rate from 16.2% to 20.2% over his last seven starts, but continues to struggle to find the strike zone with an 11.2 BB% (44.4 Z-O-Swing%). The result has been at least four runs in five of these last seven, while the ground ball rate is down two more points since last year (47.3%). Allowing just 5.0% Barrels/BBE registers a 3.86 xERA, but with just a 9.0 K-BB%, all additional estimators are within one-third of a run of his 4.60 ERA. He costs $7.2K and may have to face some difficult conditions in Philly, but it’s a marginal offense (97 wRC+, 22.4 K% vs RHP), but they have replaced Bryce Harper by something called a Darick Hall in the cleanup spot.

High Upside Spot for Top DraftKings Arm

Thursday’s main slate includes seven games, starting an hour earlier on DraftKings, while FanDuel will stick to the normal start time with five. Two of the 10 available pitchers on FD cross the $10K barrier, while Aaron Nola costs exactly that much on DraftKings, as the most expensive pitcher on the seven game slate. Nola is the top projected pitcher and point per dollar value on the only site on which he is available with the earlier start. He has completed seven innings in four straight starts with a total of three runs allowed and also has at least seven innings of two run ball or better in eight of his last 12 starts. He’s struck out fewer than six just once over that span and just by one with a total of nine walks. His 25.7 K-BB% on the season, pushes all below, but within one-third of a run of his 2.98 ERA. He’s been good enough that projections suggest he can overcome difficult weather in a tough park against a dangerous offense (101 wRC+, 15.0 HR/FB vs RHP), though it’s a pitcher friendly umpire, while the Braves are predominantly right-handed with the highest strikeout rate split on the board against RHP (25.5%). There’s a very clear top of the board arm on FanDuel as well. For more on that and today’s other high priced pitchers, check out Thursday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Lineup update: Matt Wisler will open for the Rays on Thursday.

Lineup update: Matt Wisler will open for the Rays on Thursday.

The Value Stack to Pair with Your High End Hitting & Pitching

On a seven game slate where the Dodgers outrun every other team total by a full two runs at Coors tonight, somewhere upwards of one-fith of stacks are projected to be Dodgers tonight. It’s very tough to get away from, although Cleveland, with a combination of top and value bats, also projected for double digit stacking ownership on either site, despite just a modest, middle of the board, 4.25 run team total against Dylan Bundy. The Dodgers smash the slate even more often in simulations, around one-quarter of the time, while Cleveland is the top value stack, a bit ahead of the Cubs against the volatile Hunter Greene with some pitcher friendly weather at Wrigley tonight. PlateIQ projections are fluid and subject to change, but where does that leave us in terms of Leverage Ratings? Check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog to find out.

Fishing for Value in This Low Cost Lineup

How are players going to afford all those Dodger bats with so many high priced pitchers as well? The answer, according to PlateIQ projections (which are fluid and subject to change) depends on which site you’re playing on tonight, but there are a couple of lineups where value bats should be able to be found on both sites. FanDuel projections like a couple Minnesota lefties against Cal Quantrill, who has struck out more than four just twice this season with a high of seven, owning just a 7.2 K-BB% on the season. After nine straight starts of at least six innings (eight Quality Starts), he’s failed to go six in each of his last two, while all estimators are more than half a run above his 3.76 ERA, ranging from a 4.37 FIP to a 4.99 DRA. He does have a bit of a reverse split with LHBs owning a .298 wOBA, .317 xwOBA against him since last season, but Max Kepler (113 wRC+, .212 ISO vs RHP since LY), costing $2.7K), and Nick Gordon (93 wRC+, .150 ISO), at just above the minimum, are both top five projected point per dollar FD values tonight.

FanDuel projections also suggest complimenting the top overall bat of Jose Ramirez (158 wRC+, .311 ISO) with Franmil Reyes (110 wRC+, .233 ISO) and Steven Kwan (116 wRC+) at $2.4K each against Dylan Bundy, who isn’t walking anyone (4.7%), but that’s really the only positive. He’s struck out more than three just twice over his last eight starts and is down to a 17.9 K% on the year. When you’re not striking anyone out and 10.6% of your contact has been barreled, that’s going to be a problem. The walk rate is the only thing keeping his xERA (3.83) below four, but that’s the only estimator we can say that about. Batters from either side of the plate are within a .330 to .348 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year.

Over on DraftKings, projections are actually suggesting the top value lineups are facing the pitchers with the top value projections, which is certainly possible at the right prices. It’s pitcher friendly weather in Wrigley for Hunter Greene’s 28.9 K%, which is second highest on the board, but he’s struggled with walks and contact on occasion. LHBs have a wOBA and xwOBA within two points of .310 against him. He actually has a reverse split, but Rafael Ortega (131 wRC+, .181 ISO) and Alfonso Rivas (111 wRC+) are both extremely cheap.

Three of the top five projected point per dollar values on DraftKings are Marlins. Andre Pallante generates a lot of weak ground balls, which does give him some value in a favorable park at a very low cost, but he also has just a 4.8 K-BB% and a reverse split (RHBs .357 wOBA, .339 xwOBA). Jesus Aguliar (111 wRC+, .192 ISO) is the top projected DraftKings value for just $2.2K with Brian Anderson (121 wRC+, .132 ISO) and Garrett Cooper (138 wRC+, .164 ISO) both costing less than $3K as well.

No Other Offense Within Two Runs

The Dodgers are still at Coors tonight, but on just a seven game slate. Despite falling 10 runs short of their team totals over the last two nights combined, how do you think they’re going to look on a seven game slate after their team run total and projections dominated a full 15 game slate last night? Yes, you would be correct. Complete domination. The Dodgers currently own a 6.75 implied run line that’s exactly two runs above any other offense tonight. It’s a massive gap. Four of the top five projected bats on either site are Dodgers (split only Jose Ramirez against Dylan Bundy). German Marquez has Quality Starts in each of his last three road starts, but hasn’t allowed fewer than three earned runs in a home start since opening day and even only that few once. The strikeouts have been hit or miss with a 10.9 K-BB% overall and 45.7% of his contact at least 95 mph in exit velocity. Exactly half his contact being on the ground is about the only positive thing here, although estimators are all more than half a run below his 5.58 ERA (.320 BABIP, 64.8 LOB%, 18.2 HR/FB). Marquez only has a bit of a split, but batters from either side of the plate are above a .300 wOBA and xwOBA against him and that’s enough for great Dodger bats from either side of the plate to project tremendously against him. Trea Turner (129 wRC+, .173 ISO vs RHP since 2021) and Freddie Freeman (147 wRC+, .205 ISO) are the top two projected bats on the board. Will Smith (133 wRC+, .230 ISO) and Max Muncy (123 wRC+, .236 ISO) are top five as well with Justin Turner (115 wRC+, .163 ISO) also sneaking into the top 10.

While that doesn’t leave a lot of room for other offenses, the Toronto Blue Jays (4.73 implied runs) also sneak their two top hitters, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (158 wRC+, .276 ISO) and George Springer (133 wRC+, .270 ISO), into the bottom half of the top 10 projected hitters tonight. Nick Pivetta has been striking out a lot of batters (though with a suspect SwStr%), but has marginal control (8.1 BB%) and does not fare well upon contact (90.9 mph EV, 9.1% Barrels/BBE). RHBs have a wOBA and xwOBA within three points of .300 against him since last season. Lastly, the only reason the Angels only feature a single top 10 projected bat tonight is because Shohei Ohtani, although Mike Trout (193 wRC+, .392 ISO) being outside the top five is a bit of a rarity, but RHBs have a .237 wOBA (.290 xwOBA) against Michael Kopech since last season.