DFS Alerts

The Lineup That's Loaded with Projected Value

There’s a good chance that a lot of players might be paying down for pitching and may not need as many value bats as usual, but when they’re right there in some of the top lineups, why not? This is the case for the Dodgers, who are tied for fifth on the board at 5.25 implied runs and are one of just two teams to feature multiple top 10 projected bats tonight. They also feature multiple top 10 projected values on FanDuel against German Marquez (LHBs .333 wOBA, .343 xwOBA since last season). Max Muncy (120 wRC+, .230 ISO vs RHP since 2021) and Jake Lamb (102 wRC+, .211 ISO) are cheaper FD bats, making your Dodger stacks easier.

If not the Dodgers, or maybe in addition to the Dodgers, there’s also a game in Baltimore with some hitter friendly conditions expected, where the Orioles continue to stretch Austin Voth out, up to 62 pitches last time out. He does have an impressive 15.3 SwStr% over three short starts, though let’s defer to his career 22.1 K% for the time being, which isn’t bad at all. A poor contact profile has been his issue (8.5% Barrels/BBE). His 7.34 ERA through 30.2 innings this year is nearly double his estimators (.412 BABIP, 58.8 LOB%). Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA against Voth since last season. FanDuel projections suggest there’s some value top to middle of the projected Texas lineup with Josh Smith (144 wRC+) and Kole Calhoun (102 wRC+, .178 ISO) costing exactly $2.3K each.

DraftKings projections however, suggest almost all the top 10 value is in Detroit. While nothing in Cal Quantrill’s profile is a massive regression candidate, he probably had a little bit coming with each of a .269 BABIP, 75.8 LOB% and 9.7 HR/FB, which have combined to result in a 3.72 ERA that’s at least three-quarters of a run below all estimators. The largest and really only issue is a 14.6 K%, which makes it really difficult to keep an ERA below four with unless there’s some sort of contact profile wizardry and his is fairly average. The Detroit lineup is projected to lineup nearly entirely left-handed against him tonight and batters from that side have a .299 wOBA and .317 xwOBA against him since last season. There’s nothing particularly good about the Detroit offense, but they are particularly cheap. Willi Castro (72 wRC+) is the top projected value on DK tonight. Riley Greene (139 wRC+), Victor Reyes (83 wRC+), Jeimer Candelario (108 wRC+, .160 ISO) and Harold Castro (94 wRC+) are all top 10 projected DK values as well. Candelario and Javier Baez are the only batters in the projected lineup exceeding a .140 ISO against RHP since last season, but these players don’t have to do much to cover prices all $2.5K or less.

Power, Park and Weather Boost These Bats to the Top of the Board

One-third or eight of the 24 teams on a 12 game slate reach a five run team total on Tuesday night, which re-emphasizes the poor state of pitching on this slate. Seven more (so more than half the board) reaches at least four and a half implied runs tonight. The Braves are at the top of the board with a 5.44 run team total, but don’t really separate themselves from several other teams in that range. The result is that Ronald Acuna Jr. (141 wRC+, .244 ISO vs RHP since 2021) is currently the only top 10 projected value by PlateIQ against contact prone, extreme ground baller Andre Pallante in a hitter friendly park, but pitcher friendly umpire in Atlanta. In fact, only two teams place multiple batters inside the top 10.

Let’s start with the top projected bat on the board. It’s warm with the wind blowing out in Philly tonight and Weather Edge is currently stating that offense (both runs and home runs) increase dramatically under tonight’s expected conditions. Paolo Espino has struck out 14 of 76 batters over four starts, but with just a 6.1 SwStr%. Four of his five barrels (8.9%) have left the yard. Facing mostly marginal offenses, his 3.91 ERA over this span is much lower than estimators, due to an 81.5 LOB%. Ideally, Espino would probably not be part of a fully healthy major league rotation. Batters from either side of the plate are between a .308 and .338 wOBA and xwOBA against Espino since last year, so slightly above average before we even consider the environment and conditions. In addition, the top of the Washington bullpen (if there is one) has been used heavily the last few days and may not be available tonight. The entire bullpen has a 5.63 FIP that’s second worst in the majors over the last 30 days. All of this, plus his own numbers against RHP since last season (148 wRC+, .340 ISO) are why Kyle Schwarber is the top projected bat on the board tonight. It’s also why he’s joined among the top 10 by Rhys Hoskins (119 wRC+, .244 ISO) and Nick Castellanos (119 wRC+, .219 ISO). The latter has been struggling, but the former owns a projected lineup leading 211 wRC+ over the last 30 days, while Schwarber has been barreling 21.1% of his contact this year. The Phillies have the fourth highest implied run line on the board tonight (5.28).

The Dodgers are tied for fifth on the board at 5.25 implied runs, but are the only other offense to feature multiple top 10 projected bats in Mookie Betts (136 wRC+, .238 ISO) and Freddie Freeman (149 wRC+, .212 ISO). Cody Bellinger is the only batter in the projected lineup below a 100 wRC+ and Gavin Lux the only one below a .170 ISO against RHP since last season. German Marquz has walked eight of his last 47 batters with just four strikeouts, dipping his strikeout rate to 18.7% on the season (10.2 K-BB%). Despite a 48.7 GB%, he’s still allowed 8.1% Barrels/BBE because 45.4% of his contact has been hard hit (95+ mph EV). His 92.0 Z-Contact% is easily worst on the board today. He does have a .100 point difference in his Home/Road wOBA allowed and an 8.4 point increase in his K-BB% in away games, but that still doesn’t inspire much confidence in this spot. A .320 BABIP, 63.6 LOB% and 17.9 HR/FB generate estimators ranging from a 4.16 xFIP to a 4.98 FIP, all well below his 5.89 ERA, but none of those numbers is actually good. He does have a bit of a split (LHBs .333 wOBA, .343 xwOBA since last season), but RHBs are still average against him (.313 wOBA, .307 xwOBA).

Where to Consider Embracing Risk and Paying Down for Pitching Tonight

Ten of Yusei Kikuchi’s 14 home runs and 16 of his 28 barrels (16.8%) have been surrendered over his last six starts, over which he has a 37.5 GB% and 95.1 mph EV. He’s also struck out 30 of the 101 batters hes’ faced over this span (14.7 SwStr%), but with 12 walks. The strikeouts aren’t doing you much good, as he’s only completed six innings once in this span and three times all season. As one might expect, his contact inclusive estimators are much higher than his 4.74 ERA this year, while contact neutral ones are a half run lower. This sounds like the beginning of a post where we’re considering which pitchers we want to attack, but it’s not. Yusei Kikuchi is actually essentially tied for the top projection on the board (PlateIQ projections are fluid and updated throughout the day) and costing less than $8K on either site, he’s also the runaway top projected point per dollar value. Part of it is the dismal state of pitching on this slate, but part of it is also the matchup and environment. Oakland is a substantial park upgrade and power suppressor, even if the weather is slightly more hitter friendly than usual. The A’s have an 84 wRC+, 23 K% and 8.8 HR/FB vs LHP this year. They have just a 70 wRC+ and 5.3 HR/FB at home. Embrace the risk and check in on Kikuchi’s ownership projections later in the day.

Kikuchi (4.11) is the only pitcher currently reaching a four P/$ projection on FanDuel tonight, although the top 11 projected values all cost less than $8.5K. You wouldn’t want to use most of them on a single pitcher site however. Alex Wood has allowed 13 runs (three home runs) over his last 11 innings with just a 42.9 GB% and 90.6 mph EV over that span. His velocity has been steadily dropping (though it did bump up in his last start), as he’s down to a 22.5 K% on the season. On positive notes, he’s still allowed just 13 barrels (5.9%) with a 6.3 BB% with estimators all well below a 5.03 ERA (.340 BABIP, 66.8 LOB%, 13.6 HR/FB). In fact, a 4.22 DRA is the only one above four, but watching his velocity going forward will be key. This is another spot where we like the matchup. The Diamondbacks have an 85 wRC+ and 23.5 K% vs LHP. Wood costs exactly $8K on FanDuel, but projects just outside the top five values for $9.2K on DraftKings.

The Dodgers seem to want to cap Mitch White at 80 innings, so while the rate stats have been fine this year (15.2 K-BB%), the limited workload increases the risk/reward ratio of a 9.6% barrel rate and 90.2 mph EV. Only a 4.05 DRA is more than one-tenth of a run removed from his 3.93 ERA. Average pitcher on a capped workload might be fine in a neutral environment against a poor offense against RHP (81 wRC+), but the Rockies don’t strike out much (21.1% vs RHP). White is a top three projected value on either site for $7.4K, which, again, says more about the state of pitching on this slate than anything else.

The only drawback to rostering Jeffrey Springs had been his workload, but he’s now been extended beyond 90 pitches in three of his last four starts, including more than 100 last time out. He has allowed multiple home runs in three of his last six starts on nine barrels (10%), but also has a 23.9 K-BB% over that span. One of the few pitchers we’ve seen move from the pen to the rotation without losing anything, a 3.53 DRA is two-tenths of a run higher than any of his other estimators, though all are more than three-quarters of a run above his 2.25 ERA (92.2 LOB%). Springs costs $9.7K on DraftKings, but $8.4K on FanDuel. Yet, he projects as just tonight’s seventh best arm and a marginal value. The reason is because he’s facing a good offense (board topping 120 wRC+ vs LHP with a 21 K%) in a tough park (Fenway) under difficult conditions (wind blowing out with some rain concerns).

One last pitcher, who probably deserves some words on a slate like this is Kyle Hendricks. He does not project particularly well at all, but has struck out 25 of his last 93 batters with at least six in each of his last three starts. He had previously exceeded three strikeouts in just one of seven starts. With this strikeout bump, he has an ERA and estimators below four over this span and perhaps it is real with a 15+ SwStr% in three of the four starts. Simply, fewer four-seam fastballs with more sinkers and changeups appears to be the recipe. Skepticism is normal and may even be correct. Hendricks still has season estimators all within one-third of a run of his 4.76 ERA, but we have to consider that this is a different pitcher now, completing just his third and fourth Quality Starts of the season last two times out. And on this slate, with a reasonable matchup (Brewers 107 wRC+, 23.4 K%) in a somewhat neutral park, he may be worth considering for $7.6K on DraftKings, though his $9.6K FanDuel cost may be too high.

Tonight's Top End Pitching is Full of Risk

A 12 game Tuesday night slate features a little bit of a lot of things. We have spot starters, pitchers who are not fully stretched out, weather concerns, hitter friendly weather and to top it all off, the only pitcher to exceed $10K on either site is…Nick Pivetta? This is not going to be easy, but let’s cover some high priced pitching anyway. Pivetta has 10 Quality Starts in his last 11 tries, allowing more than two runs in just one of them. He’s running a 24.2 K% and 17.6 K-BB% over this span, though with just a 9.1 SwStr% that bears watching, considering the retention of a 90.7 mph EV over this span. His 3.23 ERA is a bit below estimators ranging from a 3.68 FIP to a 4.24 xERA with just 10 of his 24 barrels (9.3%) leaving the yard. On the positive side, the Rays strike out a ton against RHP (25.1% with a 97 wRC+). Looking at the projected Tampa Bay lineup in PlateIQ, four of the first five have a sub-17.5 K% against RHP this year, but the remaining five exceed 26%. On the other hand, Fenway is a tough park to pitch in and weather conditions may make it even more difficult tonight. Pivetta is the third best projected pitcher on this board, but just a middle of the board projected value (although PlateIQ projections are fluid and subject to change). To see how the rest of tonight’s most expensive pitchers measure up, check out Tuesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

With Top Projected Bats & Values, Fading This Stack May Be High Risk

A seven game Monday night slate belongs to the Dodgers offensively. Although not entirely separating themselves from the rest of the board, they to have the highest team total at 5.56 runs where PlateIQ projections (which are fluid and updated throughout the day) project them to be the most popular stack and smash the slate more than any other stack on either site, while they do create some separation form the rest of the board in these areas. In fact, they currently pull off the Triple Crown on FanDuel, projecting for the most value as well with an affordable Max Muncy and Will Smith projecting both as top overall bats and top point per dollar values tonight. On DraftKings, it’s all Dodgers until we get to the Value% column, where Tigers hold a lead over the White Sox, both separating themselves from any other stack. Detroit has been better against LHP (99 wRC+) and they are cheap against Konnor Pilkington, who has been struggling recently. Dodgers, Dodgers, Dodgers…Dodgers, Dodgers, Dodgers, but does their Smash% overlap their Own% enough to make them the top rated stack tonight? Check out tonight’s PlateIQ Live Blog to find out.

Where to Find the Value in Tonight's Top Lineups

The second game of the Cleveland/Detroit double-header is only available on DraftKings tonight, but according to early PlateIQ projections (which are fluid and subject to change), this game is loaded with value bats. In fact, eight of the top 10 projected point per dollar value bats are from this game, where Konnor Pilkington will be facing Alex Faedo. struck out 18 of 61 batters over his first three starts, but just nine of 66 over his last three. Considering the 12.4 BB% and 13.8% Barrels/BBE, he’s going to need those strikeouts. With just two of 13 barrels leaving the yard, he’s generated a 5.4 HR/FB and 3.73 FIP that’s his only estimator not more than one-quarter of a run above his 4.31 ERA. Batters from either side of the plate are above a .360 xwOBA against him, even if he does have a reverse actual split (LHBs .406 wOBA). At the bottom of the Cleveland projected order, Ernie Clement and Myles Straw cost $2.3K or less.

Just when it looked like Faedo was starting to miss bats and generate strikeouts at a league average rate, not only has he struck out just six of his last 42 batters (7.7 SwStr%) in Arizona and Boston, but he’s also now allowed 15 runs (14 earned) over his last 11.1 innings (three starts). He’s allowed eight barrels (18.2%) on a 92.8 mph EV and just a 29.5 GB% over this span. He’s now made 10 starts with just an 18.3 K% and not a single estimator below four and a half. Batters from either side of the plate own at least a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against him. Spencer Torkelson, Jeimer Candelario, Riley Greene, Robbie Grossman, Miguel Cabrera and Victor Reyes all cost $2.6K or less on DraftKings.

FanDuel projections suggest we can find some value in some of the top offenses tonight. Both the Dodgers and Mets are top three offenses with team run totals above five tonight and both feature multiple top of the board projected bats. They also both feature a pair of top projected FanDuel values. While Max Muncy (132 wRC+, .253 ISO vs LHP since 2021) and Will Smith (119 wRC+, .199 ISO) pull double duty as top projected FD bats and values against Kyle Freeland (batters from either side of the plate above a .330 wOBA and xwOBA since LY) and are essential parts of any Dodger stack tonight, Brandon Nimmo (126 wRC+, .148 ISO vs RHP since last season) and Dominic Smith (150 wRC+ last 30 days) can help fill out your Mets stacks for less than $3K with the top projected bats of Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso. LHBs have been about average against Hunter Greene (.312 wOBA, .307 xwOBA).

The only other lineup to feature multiple top 10 projected values on FanDuel is the San Francisco Giants, only available on FD. Austin Slater (136 wRC+, .225 ISO) and Darin Ruf (151 wRC+, .267 ISO) are explosive platoon bats, who do carry some pinch hit risk, but cost just $2.6K against Madison Bumbarner (RHBs .328 wOBA, .339 xwOBA since last year).

It May Not Be Coors, But This Offense Still Dominates Projections

Each of the three offenses above five implied runs are available on both FanDuel and DraftKings tonight, while three of the four additional offenses above four and a half are also, as well. No matter which site you’re playing on, the Dodgers are the top offense on the board and only one reaching a five and a half run team total, though without much separation from the rest of the board. Regardless, Dodger bats dominate the PlateIQ projections tonight (which are fluid and subject to change). It’s almost as if they were playing at Coors again. They aren’t, but they’re still facing the Rockies and Kyle Freeland, who has faced at least 26 batters in seven of his last nine starts, but it’s perplexing as to why, considering he owns a 4.53 ERA with estimators even higher over this span. He’s somehow accumulate six Quality Starts during this run with just a 6.4 K-BB%, partially because just six of 16 barrels (8.0 HR/FB, 8.8% Barrels/BBE) have left the yard. His 4.31 season ERA is below all estimators and at least four-tenths of a run below all non-FIP estimators. Batters from either side of the plate exceed a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against Freeland since last season. Mookie Betts (143 wRC+, .336 ISO vs LHP since 2021) and Trea Turner (178 wRC+, .273 ISO) are the top two projected bats on the board. Fredde Freeman (116 wRC+, .170 ISO), Max Muncy (132 wRC+, .253 ISO) and Will Smith (119 wRC+, .199 ISO) are all top 10 projected batters as well. Without any DraftKings pitcher costing more than $9.3K tonight, Dodger stacks may be affordable too.

The New York Mets, with a 5.36 run team total that is third best on the board, are the only other offense featuring multiple top 10 projected bats tonight. Hunter Greene can miss lots of bats (28.9 K%, 13.2 SwStr%), but has also allowed at least three runs in fewer than six innings in nine of his 15 starts. In fact, he’s only completed six innings three times (allowing a total of five hits in those starts). A 9.9 BB% with 10.8% Barrels/BBE is a scary combination. It’s probably a Cincinnati problem that 20 of his 21 barrels have left the yard, generating a 5.54 FIP (19.2 HR/FB), but a 3.76 SIERA is still his only estimator below four. The Great American Smallpark is a massive upgrade for Mets’ bats and Greene has exhibited a reverse split thus far (RHBs .384 wOBA, .354 xwOBA), while LHBs have been about average against him (.312 wOBA, .307 xwOBA). Pete Alonso (141 wRC+, .247 ISO) is a top five projected bat on either site tonight, joined by Francisco Lindor (110 wRC+, .188 ISO) among the top 10.

Top Projected Value Has Re-Entered the Circle of Trust with Improved Performance

Despite the differences between sites tonight in start times and games offered, PlateIQ projections for DraftKings (which are fluid and subject to change) feature four pitchers above 2.0 P/$, while FanDuel projections feature just one more arm (five) above 3.0 P/$. On FanDuel, three of these pitchers cost at least $10K, but sandwiched in the middle is Julio Urias at $9.5K. With increased velocity and a 33.7 K% over his last four starts, which includes Coors, the Guardians, Braves and Giants, Urias has re-entered the Circle of Trust. The downside is that the Dodgers have not let him go beyond six innings in any start, though he’s been between 87 and 94 pitches in his each of his last seven starts after not having reached that limit in any of his first eight. The control (6.2 BB%) and contact profile (86.6 mph EV, 27.3% 95+ mph EV) were never things we had to worry about. As such, his 2.99 ERA is closest to a his 2.64 ERA with all additional estimators more than a run separated from actual results. However, estimators over the last month are much closer to three than four. Problematically, the Rockies have been very good against LHP this year (115 wRC+, 18.8 K%), though Urias is a top five projected arm on either site (top three on DraftKings). In addition to being the third best projected value on FanDuel, he’s the fourth best projected value on DraftKings at just $8.3K.

Madison Bumgarner has gone beyond five innings in just one of his last five starts, but has seen a velocity spike in recent efforts. Unfortunately, it hasn’t led to an increase in strikeouts. Down to just a 16.5 K% (7.9 SwStr%), the difference between a 3.63 ERA and estimators all more than a full run higher is simply that seven of 39 runs have been unearned. Bumgarner’s 45.4% hard hit rate (95+ mph EV) is worst on the board. The Giants have a 104 wRC+, but 23.7 K% vs LHP. Costing just $7.2K on the only site where he is available, Bumgarner is essentially tied with Urias as the third best projected value tonight, though he’s a difficult pitcher to trust, considering the lack of upside he’s shown this year.

Aside from Urias and a couple of $9K arms projecting as the top three DraftKings values, the only other arm above a 2.0 P/$ DK projection is Konnor Pilkington. He struck out 18 of 61 batters over his first three starts, but just nine of 66 over his last three. Considering the 12.4 BB% and 13.8% Barrels/BBE, he’s going to need those strikeouts. With just two of 13 barrels leaving the yard, he’s generated a 5.4 HR/FB and 3.73 FIP that’s his only estimator not more than one-quarter of a run above his 4.31 ERA. While Detroit has been better against LHP (99 wRC+, 22.7 K%, 6.4 HR/FB), they haven’t been good. Perhaps this is the matchup that gets Pilkington back on track, but at $6.0K, it’s a small risk to take in your SP2 spot, especially considering the rest of the arms in that price range (Alex Faedo opposing Pilkington, Dakota Hudson in Atlanta, Dylan Bundy in Chicago and Kyle Freeland in Los Angeles).

One of Several Top of the Board Arms in Great Spots on Monday

DraftKings and FanDuel each feature seven game main slates with an early start on this holiday, but not the same seven games at the same start times. FanDuel will go a full hour earlier with the Giants at Diamondbacks, but omit the second game of the double header in Detroit, which is included on the DraftKings slate, starting a half hour later. DraftKings doesn’t feature any $10K pitchers tonight, while FanDuel has four. PlateIQ projections, which are fluid and subject to change, foresee an essential tie atop the board. One of those pitchers being Alek Manoah, the most expensive arm on either site, though $1.7K less on DraftKings. It may not be the strikeout rate we were hoping for (22.7%), but Manoah has failed to produce a Quality Start just twice this season and accumulating large enough strikeout totals by consistently pitching deep into games with excellent control (5.1 BB%) and contact management (86.8 mph EV, 3.8% Barrels/BBE, 25.9% 95+ mph EV). That contact profile generates a 2.80 xERA that’s his only estimator within a run of a 2.09 ERA (.253 BABIP, 81.4 LOB%, 6.7 HR/FB), but all are below four. It’s certainly the matchup and park you’re looking for in Oakland (A’s 68 wRC+, 4.8 HR/FB at home, 73 wRC+, 24 K%, 7.9 HR/FB vs RHP). Manoah is also a top five projected value on either site. To find out which pitchers project similarly to Manoah tonight, check out Monday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Jonathan India scratched Sunday

Jonathan India scratched Sunday

Thairo Estrada (illness) scratched Saturday

Thairo Estrada (illness) scratched Saturday

Ryan Jeffers (thumb) scratched Saturday

Ryan Jeffers (thumb) scratched Saturday

Yankees-Guardians postponed Friday due to rain

Game update: Yankees-Guardians postponed Friday due to rain

The start of Yankees-Guardians will be delayed Friday due to rain

Game update: The start of Yankees-Guardians will be delayed Friday due to rain

It May Be Difficult to Get Away From this Affordable Stack Tonight

While the Rockies actually have the top implied run line on a 10 game slate (5.88), it’s actually six teams that separate themselves from the rest of the board at 4.9 run team totals or higher. Colorado stacks are not currently projected to be most popular tonight (PlateIQ projections are fluid and subject to change). Teams just below them, the Diamondbacks and Twins, with a combination of attractive and cheap bats, might be the more popular stacks tonight. These are also the two stacks that smash the slate most often in simulations, around 15-16% of the time with no other team carrying a double digit Smash% at this point in time. Arizona stacks are simply too affordable as well, especially on FanDuel. They are the top value stack on either site, but with more separation from the rest of the board on FD than DK. When an offense projects at the top of the board for the triple crown (Own%, Smash%, Value%) it often means they are going to go over-owned and don’t project a great Leverage Rating. To find out if that’s the case here, check out tonight’s PlateIQ Live Blog.