DFS Alerts
3 Reasons to play: David Ortiz
Reason #1: David Ortiz is locked in at the plate right now, striking out only 18% of the time over the last 7 days and putting the ball in play via hard contact in 50% of at-bats that have ended in contact. Reason #2: Matt Andriese has been the quintessential “league-average” pitcher this year, possessing a 4.07 xFIP against lefties, a 20% strikeout rate, and a 34% hard contact allowed percentage. Andriese has had respectable outings, but he has proven over time that he will not be too tough of a matchup for a hitter like David Ortiz. Reason #3: David Ortiz absolutely owns right-handed pitchers and owns the best wRC+ against RHP in the league amongst qualified hitters, holding an unbelievable 182 wRC+ this year versus righties.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Matt Andriese
The Orioles face off against the boom-or-bust Robbie Ray in Baltimore today
Robbie Ray has numbers over the last couple of weeks that epitomize the type of pitcher that Ray has been this year. Ray has a solid 2.93 SIERA over the last 14 days, couple with an impressive 33% k-rate. While those are the positives, he has concurrently allowed a 43% hard hit rate, which has made him susceptible to the long ball. Over that period, Ray is giving up a 1.69 HR/9, mainly to RHB (1.34 HR/9 on the season). The 32% strikeout rate makes Ray an interesting play at pitcher, but the HR/9 allowed puts the RHBs of the Orioles in play. Manny Machado is the leading candidate to make Ray pay for any mistakes, holding a 148 wRC+ total versus LHP on the year with a solid 0.207 ISO.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Robbie Ray Sabathia is allowing plenty of hard contact, making all of the RHBs for the Blue Jays interesting today
CC Sabathia survived much of the earlier part of the season by inducing soft contact, finishing June, July, and August with a hard contact allowed below 26%. That has come to a screeching halt, considering Sabathia has a hefty 39% hard contact allowed over the last two weeks, a harbinger of bad things to come today versus the Blue Jays powerful right-handed bats. Josh Donaldson has an elite 162 wRC+ on the year against left-handed pitchers and is the perfect candidate to take advantage of the copious amount of hard contact CC is allowing to his opponents in recent starts.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: CC Sabathia In limited innings, it appears Raul Alcantara will not be striking out lefties
In limited innings, Raul Alcantara has a 6% strikeout rate versus lefties, and the Rangers lineup has a few capable, young left-handed bats in the heart of the order today. For his career, Joey Gallo has shown a great deal of power versus righties, holding a 0.233 ISO. Nomar Mazara will bat 3rd in front of Gallo and offers a hefty 0.193 ISO himself. Gallo is a high-risk player, sporting an ugly 45% strikeout rate versus RHP, but Alcantara’s inability to put lefties away should help mitigate the risk of using the Rangers’s young 3rd baseman.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Nomar Mazara, Raul Alcantara Cubs lefties are sitting pretty today, beginning with Dexter Fowler
In limited innings, Alex Reyes has a healthy 5.24 xFIP versus lefties. His struggles are evident by his drastic splits concerning strikeouts, considering that his 35% strikeout rate versus righties is elite, while his k-rate versus lefties is much more average, sitting at 19%.Reyes is giving up the requisite flyball rate for home runs to happen, giving up a flyball percentage over 42% to both lefties and righties. Dexter Fowler had been in a funk for a large portion of the year coming off of an injury, but he has recently started to pick things up. Fowler’s peripheral batted ball numbers back up his results, seeing that he is hitting the ball hard in 37% of at-bats that have ended in contact over the last 7 days while striking out an elite 12% of the time. Fowler will not only jump start the offense from the leadoff position but provides some pop, holding an ISO of 0.158 over the last week and elevating the ball in 50% of at-bats where he put the ball in play.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Alex Reyes Contrarian Fade of the Day: Tigers Offense
Yordano Ventura is an up-and-down pitcher who has not been missing many bats over the last two weeks. When Ventura is not whiffing hitters, he finds himself in trouble, explaining why his SIERA over that period is a ballooned 5.11. However, SIERA does not account for the type of contact being surrendered by Ventura, which has been predominately soft contact. Ventura’s hard hit rate over the last 14 days has been an elite 17%, pointing towards avoiding Tigers if he can continue to induce weak contact. Ventura’s strikeout rate does not make him a viable play at the starting pitcher position, but his ability to induce weak contact may make the Tigers hitters a savvy fade today.
As reported by: FanGraphs Kevin's late weather update is mostly clear
While Kevin mentions several games in his evening forecast, only one even gets the full YELLOW treatment (SEA@MIN) for a potential late start with little chance of any significant weather impact elsewhere. Read the full report on our Weather Page and follow Kevin on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page
Tyler Saladino scratched, Carlos Sanchez replaces, bats ninth
Tyler Saladino has been scratched and will be replaced by Carlos Sanchez batting ninth. This move has no real daily fantasy impact.
As reported by: Chicago White Sox Cole Hamels has allowed 21 runs with 14 walks over his last four starts
Cole Hamels has been awful over his last four starts (18 IP – 25 H – 21 ER – 4 HR – 14 BB – 20 K – 92 BF). He’s been an incredibly inconsistent pitcher all season via peripherals, continually bailed out by a high strand rate that has eventually collapsed as control issues persist. That said, he’s still an above average pitcher (14.1 K-BB%) and a significant rebound is expected eventually. While it’s a lower strikeout spot, the A’s do strike out a bit more vs LHP (18.7%) and it’s a great run prevention spot (8.8 HR/FB at home) in a big park. At a slightly reduced cost in a great spot, Hamels may have some value here for $9.5K or less. The A’s do have three batters (David, Valencia, Healy) that have hit LHP for a .220+ ISO and 140+ wRC+ this season though with Semien adding a 117 wRC+ and .254 ISO. While Healy is the cheapest of the bunch on DraftKings ($3.8K), he’s the most expensive on FanDuel $3.5K.
Other tagged players: Cole Hamels, Danny Valencia, Ryon Healy, Marcus Semien Mariners are currently tied for the third-highest implied run total (4.9) on the slate
It’s been a tough season for Kyle Gibson. He used to get bailed out by his solid ground ball rate, but even that has dipped to 48.8% this year. Gibson doesn’t fool batters with a 15.7% strikeout rate, so it’s tough for him to succeed when he’s not generating as many ground balls. His hard contact rate (31.8%) is up as well, and his SIERA sits at a below average 4.74. Left-handed batters tend to hit him well, with a 33.2% hard hit rate and a .386 wOBA against him this season. That’s good news for a lefty-heavy Seattle lineup that can certainly do some damage against right-handed pitching. Robinson Cano (141 wRC+, .375 wOBA, .236 ISO vs RHP) and Kyle Seager (153 wRC+, .393 wOBA, .238 ISO vs RHP) are strong options, and the full Seattle stack is certainly in play as the Mariners have seven lefties in the lineup as they usually do against right-handed pitchers.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Other tagged players: Robinson Cano, Kyle Gibson
Anthony DeSclafani costs $11.2K on DraftKings, has major issues with LHBs (.366 wOBA)
Anthony DeSclafani has a nice 16.0 K-BB%, but a 79.3 LOB% has suppressed his ERA more than 70 points below his estimators. Unfortunately, DraftKings has him above $11K in a decent spot against in Milwaukee tonight. The Brewers struggle against RHP (87 wRC+) and strike out a ton against them (25.6%), which makes him a more reasonable option on FanDuel for over $3K less considering they litter the lineup with mostly RH bats. This is a pitcher who still struggles greatly with LHBs though (.366 wOB this season), meaning players should consider taking advantage of the two LHBs here. Scooter Gennett (93 wRC+, .144 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Jonathan Villar (107 wRC+, .139 ISO vs RHP since 2015) both cost just $3.6K on DraftKings in a favorable park in a spot where Villar, especially, should be able to run.
Other tagged players: Scooter Gennett, Anthony DeSclafani RHBs have a .425 wOBA (35 GB%) against Doug Fister over the last month
Doug Fister has allowed at least four runs (two not earned) in six of his last eight starts. LHBs have thrashed him since last season (.365 wOBA, 33.8 Hard%), while he generally keeps RHBs grounded. Though over the last month, RHBs have a .425 wOBA and 32.5 Hard% with just a 35 GB% as well. As a pitcher who doesn’t strike out many facing an offense that strikes out the least in baseball that’s a lot of opportunity for him to get in trouble tonight. Mike Trout (170 wRC+, .271 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is a top bat, as usual, if you can afford him. Kole Calhoun (110 wRC+, .166 ISO vs RHP since 2015) gets a bump in value for $3.7K on either site. Nick Buss (93 wRC+, .190 ISO vs RHP) is an interesting punt option for below $3K on either site.
Other tagged players: Kole Calhoun, Nick Buss, Doug Fister Salvador Perez scratched from the Royals lineup
Perez has been scratched from the lineup Friday afternoon due to an unspecified reason. Drew Butera will replace him at catcher and bat eighth.
As reported by: Jeffrey Flanagan Other tagged players: Drew Butera Paxton and his 19.3% K-BB% versus RHB prepare to face a righty-loaded Twins lineup
James Paxton and his skill set deserve a strong look at this salary throughout the industry. He has average strikeouts (21.6%) with a very low 5.0% walk rate and a 48.1% ground ball rate. His control and ground ball ability gives him a reasonable floor, and he has flashed some upside with his strikeouts in the past. For the season, the Twins have the fourth highest strikeout rate against left-handed pitching, but also the fourth highest ISO. However, those splits don’t really tell the whole story, as Paxton has some significant reverse splits numbers with the vast majority of his strikeouts coming against right-handed batters (23.4% K%). His ground balls have led to a low home run rate throughout his career, and banking on some additional strikeouts against the Twins righties makes him a solid tournament play.
As reported by: FanGraphs Alex Meyer had control issues in the minors, has walked 13 of 76 batters in the majors
Alex Meyer has an arm that has always had some strikeouts in it, but he’s had great difficulty finding the plate at times with many scouts believing he profiles as a future reliever. He’s missed most of this season with an injury, walking 13 of the 76 major league batters he’s faced. Houston scored three runs in 2.2 innings in his first major league start in May of this season and Vegas is siding with them again here, projecting 4.8 runs. The issue would be that only Altuve (156 wRC+, .204 ISO) and Correa (128 wRC+, .193 ISO) have been well above average against RHP this year, but Gattis (106 wRC+, .256 ISO) has shown immense power and costs just $3.2K on FanDuel. While the Houston bats are projected well, they’re mostly priced for success tonight.
Other tagged players: Carlos Correa, Evan Gattis, Alex Meyer