DFS Alerts
Targeting hard contact: Oakland Athletics
Colby Lewis, like Carlos Rodon, has been giving up a ton of hard contact over the last couple of weeks. Also similar to Rodon, Lewis has a strikeout rate south of 19% over this period, making an Oakland A like Khris Davis a strong play in the OF today. Davis has a solid 152 wRC+ over the last week, coupled with a video game-like 0.467 ISO. Lewis is a wily veteran who, on any given day, will use his guile and finesse to shut a team down, but 40% hard contact allowed is too high to ignore. Lewis is plenty capable of giving up with longball to RHBs, considering that he has a 1.61 HR/9 with only a week left of the season.
As reported by: FanGraphs
Targeting a pitcher with a strikeout rate south of 10% is always a good idea
Daniel Wright has a strikeout rate of 9% over the last couple of weeks and he has really struggled against batters on both sides of the plate. His xFIP on the season versus LHBs and RHBs is over 5.50, fueled largely by his inability to strike out batters. Against RHP this year, the Astros have a trio of hitters with ISOs greater than 0.190, including Jose Altuve, Evan Gattis, and Carlos Correa. Correa and Gattis, however, have some risk, owning k-rates versus RHP of 21% and 29%, respectively. Daniel Wright’s inability to strike batters out should mitigate the K risk for the Astros RHBs today, making Evan Gattis and company plenty viable.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, Daniel Wright Contrarian Stack of the Day: Brewers Offense
Brandon Finnegan has not been the good Brandon Finnegan over his last couple of outings. His SIERA of 6.24 points to how badly he has struggled and how viable the Brewers stack may be today. Although Finnegan has a higher xFIP against LHBs, he has allowed RHBs to elevate the ball more frequently, holding a flyball percentage of 40%. The game today will be played at Miller Park, a field with a 1.16 rating for RHB home run power on the RotoGrinders Ballpark Factors tool. Domingo Santana, Ryan Braun, and Chris Carter have wRC+ totals versus LHP of 164, 157, and 138, respectively. Domingo Santana is batting second in the order and makes a great play in the OF as a single play, or as part of a Brewers stack.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Ryan Braun, Chris Carter, Brandon Finnegan Mets lefties are in a prime matchup today versus Jake Thompson
Jake Thompson has logged 23 innings versus lefties this year and has struggled to put away LHBs, holding a horrendous 5.92 xFIP on the year. Thompson’s 13% strikeout rate versus lefties provides DFS players confidence that bats like Asdrubal Cabrera and Curtis Granderson will be able to put the ball in play. Asdrubal Cabrera has been locked in at the plate, hitting the ball hard in 42% of at-bats that have ended with contact over the last seven days. Over that period, his 7% strikeout rate is a testament to how well Cabrera has been seeing the ball.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Curtis Granderson, Jake Thompson Boom-or-Bust Pitcher of the Day: Michael Pineda
Michael Pineda has been lights out over the last couple of weeks. Pineda has the third best SIERA in the league over the last two weeks, sitting at a pristine 2.18. Over that period, Pineda has kept his hard contact below 28% and managed to whiff batters at a ridiculous 42% rate. Pineda’s matchup is not ideal, seeing that the Blue Jays lineup is riddled with power bats, but the team 23% k rate on the year versus right-handed pitchers makes Pineda a high-risk/high-reward play today in Toronto.
As reported by: FanGraphs Logan Forsythe is a solid play at the keystone position, facing Eduardo Rodriguez
Eduardo Rodriguez has had ups and downs this year, finishing June, July, and August with xFIPs of 5,72, 4.73, 4.01, respectively. So far, in September, Rodriguez has a bloated 5.37 xFIP and looks to be scuffling. Regarding home runs allowed, right-handed batters are the hitters to target Rodriguez with, since he has allowed 1.73 HR/9 to righties on the year. While it should be noted that many of the home runs that he has given up this year were in the first half of the year, a Rays hitter like Logan Forsythe has proven he can hit LHP at an elite level. Forsythe will lead off for the Rays, bringing power and speed to the lead off position. In addition to his 0.216 ISO against LHP, Forsythe offers a 6.0 speed rating (Fangraphs), and will always be a threat to swipe a base.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Eduardo Rodriguez Targeting hard contact: Carlos Santana
The Cleveland Indians will face Carlos Rodon today, a pitcher who is allowing a significant amount of hard contact. Over the last two weeks, Rodon is striking out batters less than 19% of the time and allowing hard contact in a whopping 41% of at-bats that have ended in contact. On the season, it is RHBs that have been able to get to Rodon, seeing that he holds a 4.35 xFIP versus righties. Carlos Sanatana will be batting from the right side today and has been hitting the ball hard in over 38% of at-bats that have ended in contact over the last week. Santana has limited his strikeouts over this period too, going down on strikes less than 17% of the time.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Carlos Rodon Marlins Braves game canceled due to tragic death of Jose Fernandez
Do not roster anyone from this game.
Kevin Roth has provided an update on the game in Minnesota, rating the game as YELLOW
Kevin Roth has provided an update for the game in Minnesota, giving the game a rating of YELLOW and citing that there will be a chance of a late-inning delay. Check out the full report for details.
As reported by: RotoGrinders MLB Weather Righty v Righty Special: Justin Turner
Sometimes it is worth it to keep things simple. Chad Bettis has shown that he is not better against RHBs, compared to LHBs, holding a below average 4.21 xFIP versus RHBs. Bettis is only whiffing righties 16% of the time and has a 1.64 HR/9 allowed to RHBs on the year. Meanwhile, Justin Turner has shown he can hit righties, holding an elite 145 wRC+ versus RHPs. Turner has not only had success maintaining a high average versus righties, he has hit RHPs for power, owning an impressive 0.263 ISO. Look to Justin Turner as a building block play at 3B tonight.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Chad Bettis 3 Reasons to Stack: Twins Right-handed Bats
Reason #1: The Twins have a trio of Twins who are destroying left-handed pitching this year. Kennys Vargas, Robbie Grossman, and Brian Dozier have wRC+ totals versus LHP of 269, 184, and 162, respectively. Reason #2: Ariel Miranda has been allowing batters to elevate the ball at a ridiculous rate, holding a flyball percentage of 53% this year against RHBs. Reason #3: The game will be played at Target Field, a stadium that is positive for right-handed batter home run power, right-handed batter doubles, and right-handed batter averages.
As reported by: FanGraphs and RotoGrinders Ballpark Factors Other tagged players: Kennys Vargas, Robbie Grossman Facing a lefty, Brandon Guyer could be useful today in GPPs
Jose Quintana, a pitcher who seems to get by on guile and trickery, has struggled in recent outings. Quintana struck out only 13% of batters he faced in the last two weeks while getting hit solidly, allowing a hard contact rate of 35%. Quintana will be facing an Indians team that has more than one hitter who excel against LHP, starting with Mike Napoli, and Brandon Guyer. Guyer, in particular, has a silly-good 153 wRC+ versus righties. Guyer is a threat to steal a base, possessing a 4.7 speed rating on FanGraphs, but his 0.184 ISO versus LHP is a lot of power for the 7th man in the lineup. Napoli is a high-risk/high-reward option at 1B today, seeing that he strikes out 31% of the time in at-bats against LHP, but also holds a robust0.197 ISO versus southpaws this year.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Mike Napoli, Jose Quintana Contrarian Stack of the Day: Phillies Offense
Sean Gilmartin, like many young pitchers getting opportunities at the end of the season, has pitched limited innings this year. However, in those limited innings, Gilmartin has exhibited the inability to strike out RHBs, only whiffing RHBs 11% of the time. The Phillies offense is no juggernaut but does have a handful of RHBs who have proven they can hit lefties. Roman Quin, Tommy Joseph, Maikel Franco, and Cesar Hernandez all have wRC+ totals this year north of 100 in at-bats versus left-handed pitchers. With a southpaw on the mound that appears to be prone to contact, one could do worse than stacking these capable right-handed bats.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Tommy Joseph, Maikel Franco, Cesar Hernandez, Sean Gilmartin Brad Peacock is allowing RHBs to elevate the ball at a generous rate, making the two-man stack of Trout-Pujols a viable strategy tonight
Brad Peacock is allowing a significant amount of longballs to RHBs through limited innings this year, mainly due to the type of batted balls he is allowing. Versus RHB, Peacock is allowing a flyball percentage of 56%, which has led to an embarrassing 2.38 HR/9 to righties. Most RHBs are putting the ball in play against Peacock, considering his k-rate versus righties has been a modest 16%. Over the last 7 days, a pair of Angels RHBs has been absolutely punishing the baseball and it is the pair most DFS players would guess. Mike Trout and Albert Pujols have wRC+ totals over the last week of 191 and 187, respectively. Peacock will not receive any relief from his ballpark, since Minute Maid Park has a home run power rating for RHBs of 1.12, according to the RotoGrinders Ballpark Factors tool.
As reported by: FanGraphs and RotoGrinders Ballpark Factors Other tagged players: Mike Trout 3 Reasons to play: Adonis Garcia
Reason #1: Garcia will be facing Wei-Yin Chen today, a pitcher who holds a 4.35 xFIP versus RHBs this year. Chen has allowed 1.84 HR/9 to RHBs, a number that looks to be sustainable, considering Chen holds a 41% flyball percentage, coupled with a 35% hard contact allowed rate. Reason #2: Adonis Garcia has hit LHP well this year, possessing a wRC+ total of 111, with a superb k% of 15%. Reason #3: Garcia is making solid contact over the last 7 days, striking out only 18% of the time. Look to Adonis as a high floor option at 3B today.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Wei-Yin Chen