DFS Alerts
Tyler Holt scratched from the Reds lineup
Holt has been scratched from the lineup Friday afternoon due to an unspecified reason. He will be replaced by Steve Selsky in right field and bat seventh.
As reported by: Cincinnati Reds Official Twitter Account Other tagged players: Steve Selsky
Gonzalez has been fairly splits-neutral this year, but has a higher 23.1% K% versus RHB
Gio Gonzalez is a frustrating fantasy option because he tends to nibble too much, and his upside is limited since it’s difficult for him to pitch deep into games. However, it is very strange to see him available at a discounted price tag on DraftKings. Gonzalez is an average to above-average pitcher, as evidenced by his 3.92 SIERA and other more reasonable metrics. However, Gonzalez has actually strayed from his career norms this season. He’s done better in the walk department (7.4%), but he has fallen off in the hard hit department (33.0%). This could perhaps be a result of him trying to pitch more to contact. Whatever the case may be, his overall numbers aren’t that far off from his career norms. Given the discounted price, we could certainly do a lot worse.
As reported by: FanGraphs Francisco Liriano has a 14.6 K-BB% and 52.3 GB% since joining the Blue Jays
Francisco Liriano may not be back to All-Star form, but has pitched much better since being traded to Toronto from Pittsburgh, which is a bit of a surprise. Despite seven HRs in 37 innings, he has a 14.6 K-BB% with a 52.3 GB%. While also still higher than average, his hard hit rate has dropped a bit to 33.7% as well. He faces the Yankees, who have just an 18.5 K% vs LHP, but little power (10.3 HR/FB on the road, 10.2 HR/FB vs LHP). Liriano is one of the more interesting options in his price range (around $7.5K) tonight. He only really has to be concerned about one big bat. Gary Sanchez (117 wRC+, .381 ISO vs LHP this season) continues to torch the league (305 wRC+, 50 Hard% last seven days). Billy Butler (107 wRC+, .138 ISO vs LHP this season) has been hot since joining the team as well (252 wRC+) and costs just $3.2K or less on either site.
Other tagged players: Gary Sanchez, Billy Butler
Phillies implied run total of 3.7 runs is currently on the rise
Gabriel Ynoa has been pitching out of the bullpen for the most part but has recently been pressed into starting duty. He had mediocre numbers at the AAA level this year that included a 3.97 ERA, a 4.87 FIP, and a very telling 11.9% strikeout rate. That’s right, his strikeout rate was 11.9% in the minor leagues so Don’t be fooled by his 25.0% strikeout rate in ten innings of major league duty. We can definitely fire up some Philadelphia bats in this spot, with significant value available on DraftKings. The prices of Roman Quinn, Cesar Hernandez, Maikel Franco (.158 ISO vs RHP), and Ryan Howard (.272 ISO vs RHP) are puzzling to say the least. Odubel Herrera (125 wRC+, .359 wOBA, .168 ISO vs RHP) is also in play but is probably the most accurately priced of the Phillies hitters. They are a cheap stack that would also allow you to pay up for pitching, though that may not be ideal given the lack of expensive pitchers tonight.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Other tagged players: Ryan Howard, Maikel Franco, Roman Quinn, Cesar Hernandez, Gabriel Ynoa Duda and Conforto IN Mets lineup, Bruce OUT again against Hellickson
Jeremy Hellickson has had a nice season for the Phillies with a 14.5 K-BB% and an ERA below four. He’s a reasonable choice in a great park for just $7.6K on FanDuel, but a an over-reaction to not allowing an earned run over 15.1 innings in his last two starts has his DraftKings cost above $10K now. This Mets lineup looks a little bit more like it did in April with Duda (126 wRC+, .230 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Conforto (125 wRC+, .234 ISO vs RHP career) back in it. Both potentially offer exceptional value for $2.2K or less on FanDuel with the latter below $3K on DraftKings as well. The Mets have really been just a three man wrecking crew for most of the last month, with each of the three leading them to late and extra-inning theatrics each of the last two nights. Yeonis Cespedes (127 wRC+, .251 ISO vs RHP this seaosn) costs just $3.9K or less on either site. Asdrubal Cabrera (119 wRC+, .215 ISO vs RHP this season), new owner of the greatest bat flip in history, continues to be red hot (230 wRC+, 43 Hard% last seven days) costs less than $4K on either site as well. Jose Reyes hasn’t hit RHP as well this season (86 wRC+).
Other tagged players: Yoenis Cespedes, Michael Conforto, Jose Reyes, Lucas Duda, Jeremy Hellickson First seven Toronto batters all have at least a 100 wRC+ and .173 ISO vs RHP this season
Bryan Mitchell has just a 12.7 K% and 35.6 Hard% in an abbreviated 2016 season. The Blue Jays have the second highest run projection on the slate (5.4). Though Mitchell has faced fewer than 250 major league batters in his career, RHBs have hit him just as hard as LHBs (.360 wOBA, 36.5 Hard%). While fairly expensive, this is a potent Toronto lineup that deserves your stacking consideration nearly all the way through. The first seven batters all have at least a .100 wRC+ and .173 ISO vs RHP this season. The top three are obvious and still project for decent value even considering high price tags. Michael Saunders (111 wRC+, .213 ISO vs RHP this season) may be the value play players omit from stacks due to his spot in the order (seventh) with a cost of just $2.6K on FanDuel. The Blue Jays could be in for a big night at home here.
Other tagged players: Bryan Mitchell Zach Davies has allowed three earned runs or less in each of his last five starts
Joey Votto remains one of the most talented hitters in the league with a 165 wRC+, .422 wOBA, .244 ISO, 42.5% hard hits and .446 OBP against right-handed pitching. Zach Davies has a very average skill set against left-handed batters. Adam Duvall only has six home runs since the beginning of August, and Davies is a pretty good pitcher against right-handed batters with average strikeouts (21.3%), low walks (5.5%), and a 49.2% ground ball rate, but Duvall seems too cheap for a guy with a .268 ISO and 39% hard hit rate hitting cleanup in a hitter’s ballpark. Scott Schebler (.164 ISO vs RHP) also gets the bump to the two-hole in this matchup putting him firmly in play as a lineup filler or part of a mini Reds stack in tournaments.
Other tagged players: Adam Duvall, Scott Schebler, Zach Davies Miguel Gonzalez's ERA is being suppressed by a career low 6.9 HR/FB
Miguel Gonzalez has a 3.83 ERA being suppressed by a career low 6.9 HR/FB that is completely unsustainable, especially for a guy who’s normally run higher than average HR rates. In three starts since returning from the DL, he hasn’t allowed a single HR and has struck out just 10 of 81 batters. Cleveland has one of the best home offenses in baseball (121 wRC+) and Vegas is not buying on Gonzalez (4.8 run projection). Crisp and Perez are the only batters in the lineup with a wRC+ below 113 vs RHP, while Santana, Napoli and Naquin all add an ISO above .240. While Naquin (141 wRC+, .241 ISO vs RHP) does bat eighth, he costs just $2.9K on FanDuel. Jason Kipnis (119 wRC+, .198 ISO vs RHP this season) may be the other value play at a difficult position for just $3.5K on FD. Carlos Santana (140 wRC+, .285 ISO vs RHP this season) has a 308 wRC+ over the last week.
Other tagged players: Mike Napoli, Tyler Naquin, Jason Kipnis, Miguel Gonzalez Danny Duffy has allowed at least three runs (but no more than four) in three of four starts against Detroit
Danny Duffy has allowed at least three runs in three of four starts against the Tigers even though he hasn’t allowed more than four and gotten his strikeouts. RHBs have just a .310 wOBA against him this season, but with 22 HRs. Many of the Detroit batters in this lineup have had some success against him, though Miggy Cabrera (158 wRC+, .227 ISO vs LHP since 2015) has not homered in 39 career PAs. The highest priced pitcher on either site (tied on FanDuel) this might be a spot to consider fading Duffy in a not so favorable matchup and the Tigers not even on the bottom half of the board with a 4.3 run projection. Looking at the other end, J.D. Martinez (140 wRC+, .245 ISO vs LHP since 2015) may be a viable choice on either site for $3.7K or less, while the middle and lower part of the Detroit order are all that price or below on DraftKings, including Victor Martinez (120 wRC+ vs LHP since 2015) at just $2.9K.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, Danny Duffy Shelby Miller has a minuscule 2.1% K-BB% to go along with a 5.66 xFIP against LHB
Shelby Miller has consistently proven that he is just not good at baseball. He has allowed four earned runs in three straight starts, and he has not made it past 5 1/3 innings in any of them. Opponents are hitting him hard with reckless abandon, as he owns a 36.3% hard hit rate and a 5.15 SIERA this season. Miller has never been a big strikeout guy, but his strikeout rate is all the way down to 14.9% this year. His walk rate is also too high at 9.1%. His numbers are bad against everyone, but he is particularly poor against left-handed batters, who have a 39.6% hard hit rate and a .420 wOBA against him on the year. Chris Davis (.278 ISO vs RHP) is a very strong play here, and the Orioles stack is certainly an excellent option. Hyun-Soo Kim (125 wRC+, .361 wOBA vs RHP), Manny Machado (129 wRC+, .367 wOBA, .259 ISO vs RHP), Mark Trumbo (134 wRC+ .374 wOBA, .285 ISO vs RHP), and Adam Jones (.203 ISO vs RHP) can round out a nice Orioles stack if attacking Miller in tournaments. Pedro Alvarez (121 wRC+, .356 wOBA, .268 ISO) has hit right-handed pitching extremely well and is an interesting tournamnet pivot from Davis on DraftKings, since we cannot play the two together due to positional eligibility.
Other tagged players: Hyun-Soo Kim, Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo, Adam Jones, Pedro Alvarez, Shelby Miller LHBs have a .383 wOBA and 38 Hard% against Andrew Cashner since 2015
Andrew Cashner has had just one good start combing run prevention with peripherals since the trade and that was against the Phillies. LHBs have a .383 wOBA with a 38 Hard% against him since last season. Freddie Freeman (156 wRC+, .264 ISO vs RHP since 2015) may be the day’s top overall bat and someone players might want to pay up for. More exposure to LH Atlanta bats should probably come on FanDuel where Markakis (111 wRC+. .153 ISO vs RHP this season) is $1.4K cheaper than on DraftKings and Inciarte (111 wRC+ vs RHP since last season) costs more than $2K less.
Other tagged players: Andrew Cashner, Nick Markakis, Ender Inciarte Pomeranz generated a 21.0% SwStr% in his last start against Tampa Bay
It was a pleasant surprise to see that we finally are receiving a nice discount with Drew Pomeranz on DraftKings, just in time for a favorable matchup against the free-swinging Rays offense. His ERA, SIERA, and xFIP are 3.40, 3.83, and 3.73 respectively, which is not quite in the elite tier but still very solid. Add in a respectable 26.5% strikeout rate and we get some nice upside with Pomeranz, especially with the Rays as the opponent today. The Rays have the second highest team strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season at 25.2%, and their team wOBA has slipped from the top tier all the way down to 18th against lefties right now. Tropicana Park is a great ballpark for pitching, and everything sets up nicely for Pomeranz to pitch well in this spot.
As reported by: FanGraphs Murphy still OUT, Harper (-18 wRC+ last seven days) continues to struggle, making for a nice spot for Taillon
With Bryce Harper (116 wRC+, .188 ISO vs RHP this season) continuing to struggle (-18 wRC+ last seven days) and Daniel Murphy remaining out of the lineup, this appears to be a nice spot for Jameson Taillon at home, in a park that greatly suppresses RH power against a slightly below average offense vs RHP even when they have all of their key bats healthy. While Taillon’s strikeout rate has tailed off over the last month (16.9%), it’s a good sign that his SwStr rate has increased (9.1%). Taillon has a 16.0 K-BB% with a 53.1 GB% in his rookie season in a park that helps limit some of his issues with hard contact (33.6%). The Nationals have an 18.1 K-BB% over the last week. While Taillon has been held under 80 pitches in three of his last four starts, he did throw 95 two starts back the Pirates are not entirely out of the WC race yet. If we think he’s got 90 pitches in him tonight, $7K is a very reasonable price in this spot. For the Nationals, Trea Turner (159 wRC+, .276 ISO vs RHP this season) seems a bit pricey in this spot, but Stephen Drew (128 wRC+, .277 ISO vs RHP this season) is a viable middle IF punt option, especially for just $2.2K on FanDuel
Other tagged players: Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, Stephen Drew Chris Archer has cut his BB% in half with a 25.2 K-BB% since the All-Star break
Chris Archer has gotten blow up for 17 runs in 21.2 innings over four starts against Boston, striking out 24 of 100 batters, but only one of those starts has come since the end of June. Since the All-Star break, he has an ERA with estimators around or below three with a 25.2 K-BB%. His walk rate has been cut in half, from 10% to 5%. It’s a difficult spot (Boston 107 wRC+ on the road, 116 wRC+ vs RHP, 119 wRC+ last seven days), but at least he has them at home. Archer may be the highest upside pitcher tonight and although he’s the highest priced pitcher on FanDuel, he’s still below $10K with five pitchers more expensive on DraftKings. With the risk involved and several reasonable options in his price range in safer spots, it’s possible Archer may go under-owned tonight. Check our Projected Ownership page when it updates later on this afternoon. While David Ortiz (182 wRC+, .365 ISO vs RHP this season) has three HRs off Archer in 42 PAs and grades strongly overall, there’s not much interest in costly Boston bats projected for just 3.8 runs on the road tonight.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: David Ortiz Gordon OUT, Dietrich leads off against Matt Wisler
After striking out a season high 10 Padres three starts back, Matt Wisler has struck out just four of 44 batters in two starts since. A 37.6% hard contact rate to go with his 10.1 K-BB% has really derailed his season. His splits are interesting. LHBs have a .370 wOBA and 31.1 Hard% against him in his career. RHBs have just a .294 wOBA, but with a 36.1 Hard%. Derek Dietrich (134 wRC+, .186 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is a great value out of the leadoff spot tonight for $3.4K on DK and $600 less on FanDuel. He’s also the only batter in the lineup with a HR off of Wisler. Justin Bour (124 wRC+, .244 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has similar numbers at a similar cost, but much further down the order and in a park that suppresses power. Yelich (144 wRC+, .219 ISO vs RHP this season) and Stanton (124 wRC+, .266 ISO vs RHP since 2015) are both viable bats, but much more expensive.
Other tagged players: Christian Yelich, Justin Bour, Giancarlo Stanton, Matt Wisler