DFS Alerts
Gerardo Parra scratched from the Rockies lineup Thursday
Analysis coming soon.
Justin Verlander has a the fifth highest strikeout rate (29.8%) in the majors since the All-Star break
Justin Verlander has struck out at least five in 25 straight starts and at least seven in 17 of them, throwing at least seven innings in 19 of those starts. He has the fourth best strikeout rate (29.8%) in the majors since the All-Star break. The one concern is that he also has the fifth highest fly ball rate (51.4%) with a league average 30.8% hard hit rate in the second half. He travels to Minnesota tonight, to face the ice cold Twins (27 K%, 8.2 HR/FB last seven days going into today’s DH). He’s struck out 19 of 60 Twins in two starts this season. With a cost of $12.4K on DraftKings, Price may be the better value there for $1.6K less, but these are clearly the top two arms tonight. With Verlander not really having much of a platoon split, Brian Dozier (133 wRC+, .270 ISO vs RHP this season) is the specific bat to be concerned about in a park tailored to his pull power tendencies. He remains a high enough cost to prohibit considerations of playing him, but seems to be the most likely batter to cause trouble here in a lineup that certainly has the look of a the second game of double header in late September.
Other tagged players: Brian Dozier
Dodgers have a solid 4.7 implied run total in home matchup against Tyler Chatwood
Tyler Chatwood gets the ball for the Rockies, and he fits right into the theme of the night with a mediocre overall pitching profile that includes a 4.69 SIERA, a 10.4% walk rate, and a subpar 16.7% strikeout rate. Chatwood does have a healthy ground ball rate (56.7%) and is relatively splits-neutral, so it’s difficult to load up on bats against him. We can’t viably look to use Chatwood in a road matchup against the streaking Dodgers. Although, Chase Utley is very cheap on FanDuel and DraftKings and makes for a solid play batting from the leadoff spot. Adrian Gonzalez (129 wRC+, .359 wOBA, .181 ISO vs RHP) and Yasmani Grandal (.266 ISO vs RHP) also seem to be reasonably priced, and, of course, Corey Seager (164 wRC+, .411 wOBA, .227 ISO vs RHP) is always an elite option at shortstop.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Other tagged players: Yasmani Grandal, Adrian Gonzalez, Chase Utley, Tyler Chatwood Christian Friedrich has a 5.23 xFIP and 5.7% K-BB% versus RHB this season
The Giants are fighting for one of the wild card berths in the National League, but they have sputtered to four losses in their last five games. They should be able to do some damage against Christian Friedrich, who fits in with the major trend of starting pitchers today. He doesn’t strike out enough batters (17.7%), he walks too many guys (9.3%), and his SIERA sits at 4.81. The hard contact is also a problem, at 32.1%. The Giants bats are all fairly priced on FanDuel, with Buster Posey (147 wRC+, .386 wOBA, .194 ISO vs LHP) and Hunter Pence (142 wRC+, .379 wOBA, .262 ISO vs LHP) standing out as great plays over there. Friedrich does struggle a bit more against right-handed batters, so that is where we would want to focus. The Giants bats are less appealing on DraftKings, where some of the prices are much higher. It’s pretty clear where we want to get our Giants exposure this evening.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Hunter Pence, Christian Friedrich Rockies somewhat surprisingly own the lowest implied run total (3.3) of the slate
Brett Anderson will be making his third start of the year and his first in over a month. The last time he got the ball for the Dodgers, he allowed six runs in three innings against the Reds. In his first start, he allowed five runs in one inning. As a result, his season stats are skewed with a 24.75 ERA and a 6.01 SIERA. We obviously can’t put much stock into a four inning sample size, but we certainly can’t target Anderson here. A home date against a Colorado team that struggles against left-handed pitching and struggles on the road is intriguing, but it’s really tough to actually pull the trigger. It’s best to avoid both sides of this matchup outside of maybe Nolan Arenado (.230 ISO), who hits left-handed pitching well no matter the ballpark.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Other tagged players: Nolan Arenado Some late risk in second game of Detroit @ Minnesota double header
The good news here is that Kevin expects the risk to be later in the game, which should be safer for the starting pitchers and that’s enormous on a slate with Verlander and very few other strong pitching candidates, but Kevin has still graded this game YELLOW with some concern of a potential delay. Thankfully, most of this game should already have been played when the expected time frame for any concern comes into play. Read it in Kevin’s words on our Weather Page and follow him on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates on this game.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page Jordy Mercer scratched, Adam Frazier replaces and bats lead off
Mercer was scratched from the Pirates lineup Thursday due to right forearm discomfort. Adam Frazier will replace him at shortstop and get the nod at the lead off spot against reverse-splits pitcher, Chase Anderson.
As reported by: Pittsburgh Pirates Official Twitter Account Other tagged players: Adam Frazier
Ryan Vogelsong has an 8.61 ERA with estimators around six over the last month
Ryan Vogelsong has an 8.61 ERA with estimators around six over the last month. LHBs (.383 wOBA) have hit him much better than RHBs (.311 wOBA) since last season without a ton of hard contact to either side. While that’s not optimal for the Milwaukee offense, this is still a pitcher players can look to target with a significant park downgrade tonight. Ryan Braun (125 wRC+, .222 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is the obvious bat with a 253 wRC+ and 60 Hard% over the last week, but also much more expensive than anyone else in the lineup. The rest of the top five are all around average (91 – 106 wRC+) against RHP this season and may provide reasonable value. This is a combination Villar should be able to run on, while Gennett (226 wRC+) and Santana (157 wRC+) join Braun as hot hitters over the last week.
Other tagged players: Jonathan Villar, Ryan Vogelsong, Scooter Gennett, Domingo Santana The reverse splits of Chase Anderson put Pirates RHB in an excellent spot
It’s surprising that a late-September game between the Pirates and Brewers has the highest total of the night, but that’s what happens we get a matchup of Ryan Vogelsong and Chase Anderson at Miller Park. Anderson is a fly ball (40.9%), reverse splits pitcher with a 4.68 SIERA and a 36.8% hard hit rate allowed. Those figures breakdown to a 40.6% Hard% versus right-handed batters compared to 31.7% against left-handed batters. We want to target the power righties in the Pittsburgh lineup here. Andrew McCutchen (.179 ISO vs RHP) and Jung Ho Kang (139 wRC+, .376 wOBA, .274 ISO vs RHP) are strong plays in this one. Anderson has been pretty good against left-handed batters, so avoiding Gregory Polanco seems wise in this situation. A full stack generally isn’t the best way to attack a massive fly ball pitcher, anyhow, so stick with the right-handed hitters like Starling Marte (126 wRC+, .357 wOBA, .157 ISO vs RHP) and Sean Rodriguez (122 wRC+, .352 wOBA, .267 ISO vs RHP).
Other tagged players: Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte, Sean Rodriguez, Chase Anderson RHBs have a .342 wOBA and 35.1 Hard% vs Fiers since 2015, Angels 16.1 K% vs RHP
RHBs have a .342 wOBA and 35.1 Hard% against Mike Fiers since last season and the Angels have just a 16.1 K% vs RHP, but are projected for just 3.7 runs. What do players do here? The answer may be, play Trout (171 wRC+, .272 ISO vs RHP since 2015), who may be today’s top overall bat, but also that no other Angels bat costs more than $4K on DraftKings or $3K on FanDuel. They may provide some value. C.J. Cron (129 wRC+, .206 ISO) is the next best bat vs RHP, but Pujols (102 wRC+, .168 ISO) and Jefry Marte (100 wRC+, .195 ISO) may also be viable, though not top plays at their position. The drop off may be too much after that.
Other tagged players: C.J. Cron, Jefry Marte, Albert Pujols, Mike Fiers RHBs have a .348 wOBA, 34 Hard% against Nolasco since 2015, Astros projected for 4.8 runs
Ricky Nolasco has struck out seven without allowing a run in two of his last four starts. He occasionally does that, but still might not be someone you might be willing to pay $8K for on DraftKings, even in a high strikeout spot (Astros 24.9 K% at home, 23.7 K% vs RHP) because it’s still a dangerous park against an offense with power (15.0 HR/FB at home) and Nolasco is at a disadvantage with a significant reverse split (.348 wOBA, 34 Hard% since 2015). The Astros even have the second highest projected run total tonight (4.8). Altuve (153 wRC+, .206 ISO) and Correa (130 wRC+, .195 ISO) have been the top bats against RHP this seeason, while Evan Gattis (109 wRC+, .259 ISO) has hit for the most power and has a 215 wRC+ over the last week. He’s also much cheaper than the other two, at just $3.9K on DraftKings and $3.2K on FanDuel. Jason Castro (114 wRC+, .210 ISO vs RHP) at $3.2K or less on either site, gives them two decent values at Catcher tonight.
Other tagged players: Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Jason Castro The Padres lineup carousel makes Samardzija one of the chalk pitchers of the evening
Jeff Samardzija is a prototypical,average big leagues starter, though he gets credit for being better than that because of his name recognition. Players will likely flock here as they love to take pitchers against the Padres these days, and it makes sense as they have the second highest strikeout rate and the lowest team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. However, Samardzija is the third most expensive pitcher on both FanDuel and DraftKings, and he has just a 18.9% strikeout rate and 4.30 SIERA on the year. He has also surrendered hard contact 31.6% of the time. Samardzija gave up four runs in six innings against this same team just two weeks ago, but the Padres are rolling out what may quite possibly be the worst lineup of any team this season. This obviously puts Samardzija more in play, albeit begrudgingly in play. There is no need to be targeting hitters against him, though the Padres would be an ultra contrarian tournament stack with this watered-down lineup. Then again, just don’t do it.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Page Seth Lugo has a 40.2 Hard% with an 8.8 K-BB% since joining the Mets rotation
Seth Lugo has a .235 BABIP, 84.6 LOB% and 7.4 HR/FB which has led to a estimators two runs above his 2.35 ERA. He has just an 8.8 K-BB% since moving to the rotation with a 40.2 Hard%. He may be a disaster in waiting. Unfortunately, the Phillies don’t have the type of offense that can take advantage and are projected for just 3.5 runs tonight, despite all the warning signs in Lugo’s profile. Odubel Herrera (125 wRC+, .169 ISO) has been by far the top hitter against RHP in this lineup, but carries a very expensive price tag. Ryan Howard (87 wRC+, .263 ISO) is still showing quite a bit of power when he does make contact. He may be the most viable choice in this lineup for $3.5K on DK and $1K less on FD.
Other tagged players: Odubel Herrera, Seth Lugo Yankees implied run total (3.7) is currently on a steady decline
Blake Snell has a 23.9% strikeout rate and 10.8% swinging strike rate. So he can clearly miss some bats. However, he can also walk a ton of guys. His walk rate of 12.7% is one of the worst in major league baseball. Despite being a massive fly ball pitcher (36.8% GB%), he has only surrendered a 6.0% HR/FB rate and has also allowed a .358 BABIP. This strange correlation can probably be attributed to a massive line drive rate of 26.8%. The Yankees aren’t a great offense against left-handed pitching, and we can consider Snell in tournaments for his strikeout upside. If targeting an offensive player from the Yankees against left-handed pitching, our options are pretty limited. Gary Sanchez (/390 ISO vs LHP) isn’t human so he is obviously in play.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Other tagged players: Gary Sanchez Mike Clevinger has a double digit SwStr% each of last three starts, but hasn't gone more than four innings
Mike Clevinger has allowed just a single run with a double digit SwStr% in each of his three starts this month, but hasn’t gone more than four innings (16 batters) in any of them. He’s in a great spot (Royals 82 wRC+ on the road and vs RHP) against a low power offense (9.5 HR/FB vs RHP), so if we thought we could get five or more innings (20+ batters) there might be some upside here at not much more than the minimum cost. Eric Hosmer (115 wRC+, .168 ISO) and Kendrys Morales (101 wRC+, .204 ISO) are the only Kansas City bats above a 90 wRC+ above RHP this season. Five of tonight’s bats have an ISO below .130 vs RHP.
Other tagged players: Eric Hosmer, Kendrys Morales