DFS Alerts
Jose Urena has just a 9.7% strikeout rate versus LHB this season
Jose Urena shows flashes of good stuff, but his overall numbers are poor. His SIERA and xFIP are 4.60 and 4.64, respectively, and his strikeout rate sits at 15.9%. There’s no telling what has gotten into the Braves offense lately, but they are suddenly a competent unit. They just swept the playoff-contending Mets at Citi Field, and they are far from a pushover these days. In fact, Atlanta could be a sneaky tournament stack in this spot. If you want reliable production, it’s hard to go wrong with Freddie Freeman (160 wRC+, .413 wOBA, .291 ISO vs RHP), who has been one of the best hitters in the league in the second half. Value is a little harder to come by in this lineup these days, especially on DraftKings, but constructing a tournament lineup around a core Braves stack wouldn’t be the worst idea in the world.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Nick Markakis, Jose Urena
Chris Tillman faces the top offense vs RHP (Red Sox 116 wRC+ vs RHP)
Chris Tillman has a 3.72 ERA with estimators closer to four and a half, but with a career .277 BABIP that he’s nearly matching this year, the truth is probably somewhere in between. He has the worst matchup on the board at home tonight though, as the Red Sox (106 wRC+ on the road, 116 wRC+ vs RHP, 120 wRC+ over the last week) come to visit. However, the Sox are “only” projected for 4.5 runs with have not exactly hit Tillman for much power. David Ortiz (182 wRC+, .365 ISO vs RHP this season) is the only batter with a HR against him (just one in 41 PAs). No batter even has more than three extra-base hits. RHBs have actually hit him a bit better (.335 wOBA since last season), though Ortiz still tops sits among the top overall bats tonight with a .247 wRC+ and 61.1 Hard% over the last week. An interesting GPP play might be ninth place hitter Andrew Benintendi (172 wRC+, .274 ISO vs RHP) for just $3.1K on either site. Other Boston bats like Betts (141 wRC+, .216 ISO vs RHP this season) and Ramirez (288 wRC+, 63.6 Hard% over the last week) project well, but perhaps not much beyond their high price tags here
Other tagged players: Andrew Benintendi, Mookie Betts, Hanley Ramirez, Chris Tillman
Indians currently check-in with the highest implied run total (5.0) of the night
Jason Vargas has been in and out of major league duty since 2005, and he is coming back most recently from Tommy John surgery. His last three inning start was his first major league appearance since July of 2015. Vargas has been a below average pitcher for much of his career, with a 4.50 career SIERA and a 15.4% career strikeout rate. Vargas is very splits neutral for his career, so feel free to target Cleveland hitters that hit from either side of the plate. Their traditional lefty-mashers Mike Napoli (125 wRC+, .360 wOBA, .203 ISO vs LHP), Rajai Davis (114 wRC+, .343 wOBA, .151 ISO career vs LHP), and Brandon Guyer (179 wRC+, .436 wOBA, .224 ISO vs LHP) are obviously strong plays in this matchup, but we don’t have to shy away from Jason Kipnis (114 wRC+, .345 wOBA, .180 ISO) even with a left-handed pitcher on the mound. The Indians also make for a high upside tournament stack.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Other tagged players: Brandon Guyer, Rajai Davis, Jason Kipnis, Jason Vargas Luis Cessa has just a 14.8 K% with a 10.4 SwStr% and faces strikeout prone Rays (24.1 K% vs RHP)
Luis Cessa has missed bats at a better rate than his 14.8 K% would suggest (10.4 SwStr%) and is in a high strikeout spot (Rays 25.3 K% at home, 24.1 K% vs RHP). They do have some power though (14.9 HR/FB vs RHP), homering four times against Tanaka last night. If he can put it all together, there might be shot here, but he’s struck out three or fewer in three of his last four and does nothing special with his batted ball or contact profile. There’s also a significant drop off in the bottom half of this order after Dickerson. The strongest bats may be a bit over-priced here. Miller (122 wRC+, .233 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Longoria (134 wRC+, .268 ISO vs RHP this season) both cost at least $4.5K on DraftKings and $3.4K on FanDuel. They are the only two bats in the lineup with a wRC+ above 90 over the last week. There’s not a lot to draw players to either side of this matchup.
Other tagged players: Evan Longoria, Brad Miller David Price has a 24.4 K-BB% over the last month, has gone eight innings in nine of last 20 starts
David Price is probably tonight’s top pitcher (though some may argue for Verlander). The Yankees got him for five runs last time out, the first time he’s allowed more than two in seven starts. He still struck out at least seven for the sixth straight start and hasn’t gone less than six innings in eight starts. The Red Sox have gotten eight innings out of him in nine of his last 20 starts. Over the last month, he has a 24.4 K-BB% with just an average hard hit rate (31.8%), a major improvement. He travels to Baltimore to face a powerful offense in a dangerous park (16.5%), but one of the worst offenses vs LHP (82 wRC+, 22.1 K%) with a major drop-off in power (11.7 HR/FB). He costs $1.6K less than Verlander on DraftKings, but $800 more on FanDuel. At a time when he’s pitching his best baseball of the season on an ugly slate. Players should really make an effort to pay up for him, especially on DraftKings. There’s very little upside or reliability elsewhere on this slate. Manny Machado (145 wRC+, .211 ISO vs LHP this season) has three HRs in 34 PAs against Price, but just a 21 wRC+ and 25 Hard% over the last week.
Other tagged players: Manny Machado Top of Mets order very strong against LHP this year, Morgan allows a lot of hard contact (34.7%) in the air.
Adam Morgan has had some decent results over his last four starts (2.35 ERA), including a 13.5 K-BB% and 47.1 GB% with a 28.6 Hard%, though his estimators are a bit higher due to a .250 BABIP and 4.8 HR/FB. For the season, he’s generated as many fly balls as ground balls with a 34.7 Hard%, which is just asking for trouble in Philadelphia, but he gets a park upgrade in Citi Field tonight (though it’s been more neutral towards power in recent seasons). He’s looked interesting over short spans before, but eventually reverted, so the lean is towards siding with a Mets offense that has hit him well and is projected for 4.5 runs here. A top four Mets stack is a completely reasonable approach tonight. Though not expected to sustain, Jose Reyes has absolutely crushed LHP (including Morgan) this year (229 wRC+, .386 ISO) and costs just $2.7K on FanDuel. Asdrubel Cabrera (123 wRC+, .148 ISO vs LHP this season) remains red hot (211 wRC+ over the last week), as does T.J. Rivera (194 wRC+ over the last week). Yoenis Cespedes (190 wRC+, .304 ISO vs LHP this season) is the top bat, but also the only really expensive one.
Other tagged players: Asdrubal Cabrera, Yoenis Cespedes, T.J. Rivera, Adam Morgan Giancarlo Stanton has a 299 wRC+ over the last week
Josh Collmenter struck out eight of 22 Nationals in his first start of the season last time out. That was an aberration. He is a below average pitcher, spent all of August starting for the Cubs AAA affiliate until moving to the Braves. He has a career 11.3 K-BB%, but hasn’t even been that high since 2013. However, he’s in a fairly favorable spot at home against the Marlins though. They’ve hitting for more power with all of their power bats back, but have also upped the strikeouts over the last week (22.6%). On a difficult slate, perhaps Collmenter can give you five reasonable innings at near the minimum cost on two pitcher sites if necessary. Giancarlo Stanton (125 wRC+, .267 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is really the only Marlin hitting the ball well over the last week (299 wRC+). Christian Yelich (145 wRC+, .221 ISO vs RHP this season) costs more than $5K on DraftKings.
Other tagged players: Christian Yelich, Josh Collmenter 3 Reasons to play: Yasiel Puig
Reason #1: Matt Moore has not been terrible, but he has been giving up the requisite batted-ball peripherals for home runs to happen, beginning with a 41% flyball percentage and a 29% hard contact allowed rate to RHB. Reason #2: Puig has a wRC+ of 102 and an ISO of 0.202 against LHP this year. These numbers are not mind-blowing, but Puig did have a wRC+ total of 61in the month of May. Reason #3: Puig hit the ball hard in 38% of at-bats that have ended in contact over the last week, which is a good sign, considering some of his struggles earlier this season. Look to Puig for some pop from the 5-hole in the lineup.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Matt Moore
Kevin Roth's MLB weather forecast has been updated
Kevin’s late forecast brings us just two games with weather concerns, the highest risk being in Minnesota for the Tigers-Twins matchup. Kevin currently has the game as YELLOW/ORANGE so a delay or postponement cannot be fully ruled out. Be sure to read the full report on our Weather Page and follow Kevin Roth on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Weather Page Angels implied run total (4.9) has increased nearly a full run since it opened at 4.2 runs
Derek Holland has not been good against right-handed batters with a 13.3% strikeout rate and 43.8% fly balls. Though he’s tough to fit in lineups, Mike Trout (153 wRC+, .393 wOBA, .189 ISO vs LHP) is one of the top plays of the night, and Albert Pujols (129 wRC+, .358 wOBA, .250 ISO vs LHP) is a tournament target as well. The Angels lineup is not exciting beyond those guys, but Yunel Escobar (140 wRC+, .373 wOBA, .157 ISO vs LHP) is a very solid leadoff hitter and this is one of the lineups you can look for a pure punt play to fill out tour cash game rosters with a bottom of the order hitter. Gregorio Petit and Andrelton Simmons (cheap on FanDuel) are not great hitters, but in a matchup like this, we could see production from all over the lineup. Jefry Marte (129 wRC+, .357 wOBA, .222 ISO vs LHP) also has some power potential and should be included in Angels stacks.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Other tagged players: Albert Pujols, Yunel Escobar, Jefry Marte, Derek Holland Luis Perdomo has limited the flyballs, but has let a high hard contact rate lead to a high HR/FB
Luis Perdomo has kept his flyball percentage down, allowing an elite 16% flyball percentage to RHBs and a respectable 27% flyball rate to LHBs. However, Perdomo’s 40% hard contact allowed to LHBs has led to a 20 HR/FB allowed to LHBs. This points to Jake Lamb having a solid night this evening since Lamb holds an above average wRC+ of 128 against RHPs. While Lamb does have some risk, striking out 26% of the time, Lamb more than makes up for his risk with his ceiling, as indicated by his incredible 0.287 ISO versus RHP.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Luis Perdomo Chad Kuhl is a fantastic middle-tier pitching option tonight versus the Brewers
Chad Kuhl has a number of factors going for him tonight, beginning with his recent performance. Over the last couple of weeks, Kuhl has the third best SIERA of any pitcher in the bigs, sitting at a phenomenal 2.05.Kuhl has also been able to avoid letting hitters square up his pitches, limiting his hard contact allowed to an impressive 23%. On the other side of this matchup, the Brewers will be without Ryan Braun and only have one hitter in the lineup with a K% south of 19% over the last week.
As reported by: FanGraphs Jimmy Nelson has an abysmal 2.5% K-BB% and 5.41 xFIP versus LHB
Jimmy Nelson really isn’t a terrible pitcher, but left-handed batters can still be expected to get on base at a high rate against him with his 15.6% strikeout rate and 13.1% walk rate. Adam Frazier (135 wRC+, .371 wOBA, .165 ISO vs RHP) and Josh Bell (148 wRC+, .390 wOBA, .169 ISO vs RHP) at the top of the Pirates lineup make for nice salary saving options in cash games tonight. Frazier is the cheap play on FanDuel at $2.2K and Bell is the cheap play on DraftKings at $2.9K. Paying up for Gregory Polanco (.211 ISO) is certainly an option, but the Pittsburgh value left-handed batters are really where we want to focus here.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Adam Frazier, Gregory Polanco, Jimmy Nelson Zack Greinke is struggling when it is a viable strategy to play Wil Myers
Zack Greinke is not exactly finishing the season strong, holding a 6.06 SIERA over the last two weeks. Greinke has a 14% strikeout rate over the last 14 days, leading us to believe there is a fair chance that some of the Padres will be putting the ball in play tonight. Greinke, surprisingly, has a lower k-rate against RHBs this year, making any of the hot Padres RHBs viable options tonight. DFS players could not make a career of playing Wil Myers in recent weeks, but his performance over the last 7 days points towards using him today versus Greinke. Myers is hitting the ball hard in 32% of at-bats ending in contact and elevating the ball 40% of the time over the last week
As reported by: FanGraphs Twins implied run total on the rise, currently at 4.9 runs
Buck Farmer actually might not be that bad of a pitcher, but we can’t be sure with such a small, sporadic sample size. In 2015, Farmer pitched 40 innings with low strikeouts (12.9%). In 24 innings this season he has good strikeout numbers (23.2% K%) and astronomically high walks with a 50.0% ground ball rate. Though, at Triple-A this season he he was a pitcher with good control. We truly don’t know what type of pitcher Farmer is or how good he may or may not be. Either play Brian Dozier (133 wRC+, .372 wOBA, .270 ISO vs RHP) in tournaments because he’s been on another planet the second half, or stack the Twins and bank on the 14.8% walk rate leading to some huge innings. Max Kepler (113 wRC+, .343 wOBA, .228 ISO vs RHP) and Kennys Vargas (.224 ISO vs RHP) are the best options to pair with Dozier given their potential upside.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Other tagged players: Max Kepler, Kennys Vargas, George Farmer