DFS Alerts
Adrian Beltre will face flyball machine, Jered Weaver at home
Jered Weaver has been living dangerously over the last few weeks, giving up a ridiculously high 60% fly ball percentage. This kind of batted-ball profile usually is reserved for high strikeout pitchers who can rack up Ks on any given night, so Weaver’s 23% k rate over that period is probably why his SIERA has “only” been 4.69. On the year, Weaver is allowing 40% hard contact to RHB, which is good news for Rangers RHBs who will be batting in Arlington tonight. Globe Life Park in Arlington is about league average for home runs for RHB, which is bad news for Weaver who has pitched half of his games in Las Angeles (0.92 for home run power for RHB according to the RotoGrinders Ballpark Factors tool). Adrian Beltre profiles as the perfect hitter to use against Weaver, considering that over the last week, he hit the ball hard in 40% of at-bats that ended in contact,struck out only 12% of the time, and elevated the ball 44% of the time.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Jered Weaver
Kluber has an increased SwStr% and K% the past month despite mixed results
When we look at the last 30 days data, we see that Corey Kluber has been closing out the season strong and has seen an uptick in his strikeouts recently (30.8% K% last 30 days). It is possible that Kluber gets overlooked tonight with the cake matchups of Sale and Scherzer, making him a possibly low owned tournament target, but it is more likely that the ownership ends up pretty evenly split between the three on both sites. He is clearly not as good as those first two, but it’s not far off. As evidenced by the numbers, it’s basically only a higher walk rate (6.6%) separating Kluber. In his last seven starts, Kluber has at least seven strikeouts in every game and has gone at least seven innings in four straight. His matchup isn’t quite as friendly, but it’s still very good, as a huge home favorite against a Royals team that is middle of the road at best. On DraftKings, the salary savings is significant enough to make a case for playing Kluber in all formats, while on FD, he is less in play given how closely priced he his to Scherzer and Sale.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Page
Vegas is expecting a pitching duel at the Trop tonight
Alex Cobb was on his way to becoming an ace before undergoing Tommy John surgery and missing all of 2015. In his first three starts back, while his strikeouts (16.9%) are nothing to get excited about, he is still showing massive ground ball ability (55.6%) and strong control (5.6%). A ground ball pitcher who doesn’t walk anybody can succeed in the big leagues, especially in a good ballpark like Tropicana Field. Until we see some sort of strikeout upside, it’s difficult to seriously consider Cobb at his price on FanDuel for tournaments, but on DraftKings at a low $7K price tag, he is quite viable as an SP2 for either cash games or tournaments. Don’t expect any sort of huge upside performance, but we could see a quality start here from Cobb against this inconsistent Yankees lineup.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Two-man stack of the night, runner up: Miguel Cabrera and J.D. Martinez
The Detroit Tigers put up an 8-spot yesterday and look to have a good matchup for a second consecutive day as they face off against Jose Berrios. Berrios has a ridiculously high SIERA over the last two weeks, sitting at a bloated 7.30. Berrios is giving up plenty of flyballs over this period too, allowing a flyball percentage of 60% to go along with a modest 15% strikeout rate. Berrios on the season is surrendering a generous 2.63 HR/9 to RHBs, mainly due to a 44% flyball rate and a 39% hard hit rate that indicate this inflated HR/9 may continue until his batted ball profile gets a makeover. Miguel Cabrera homered yesterday, so his ownership may actually reach double digits today, but he still makes for a great play from the right side of the plate. Cabrera holds an elite 0.247 ISO against RHP and is a great 1B to pair with Tiger’s OF J.D. Martinez, a player with a near identical ISO of 0.246 versus RHP this year.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Miguel Cabrera, Jose Berrios Adam Duvall's hard contact rate + John Lackey's hard contact allowed = High probability of hard contact for Adam Duvall
John Lackey is giving up hard contact over the last two weeks, allowing a 38% hard contact rate on at-bats ending in contact. This is only an issue when a pitcher is letting the batters elevate the ball and Lackey is the proud owner of a 43% flyball percentage over this same period. On the season, Lackey is allowing many more flyballs to RHBs, possessing a flyball percentage of 44%. Adam Duvall makes for an elite candidate to take Lackey deep, considering Duvall has a phenomenal 50% hard contact rate over the last 7 days.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: John Lackey Cubs have the second-highest implied run total on the slate (5.6)
There is going to be some added risk in rostering Cubs bats for the remainder of the season as they have their eye on October and may be more willing to pull regulars mid-game. Robert Stephenson has never been able to harness his control, even in the minors, and with his fly balls (44.0%) and home run issues (2.13 HR/9), adding free base runners is a huge issue, especially against the Cubs offense who have the highest walk rate in the league against right-handed pitching. There should be runs a plenty tonight for Chicago. Anthony Rizzo (158 wRC+, .409 wOBA, .280 ISO vs RHP) and Kris Bryant (143 wRC+, .388 wOBA, .249 ISO vs RHP) are the top plays, but will be difficult to fit in lineups unless opting to go cheap at pitcher. Ben Zobrist (112 wRC+, .342 wOBA, .161 ISO vs RHP) and Dexter Fowler (118 wRC+, .351 wOBA, .157 ISO vs RHP) are cash game options in order to get a piece of this offense and high total.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Other tagged players: Kris Bryant, Ben Zobrist, Dexter Fowler, Robert Stephenson Bryce Harper owns Tom Koehler and has been making great contact in recent games
Tom Koehler has been a little worse than average against both LHBs and RHBs, owning an xFIP of 4.48 and 4.69, respectively. The BvP truthers of the DFS world may not be concerned with this 4.48 xFIP figure and have done enough research to play Bryce Harper after seeing his career 1.441 OPS versus Koehler. Harper has 6 home runs in 29 at-bats and appears to fall in the sweet spot of sample size, having faced Koehler almost 30 times over the last few years. For the DFSers who vehemently hate BvP, you can still play Bryce Harper and just tell yourself it is because Harper is hitting the ball hard in 40% of at-bats that have ended in contact over the last seven days and he is facing an average pitcher.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Daily Batter Hub Other tagged players: Tom Koehler 3 Reasons to play: Jackie Bradley Jr.
Reason #1: Ubaldo Jimenez has historically struggled versus lefties and has continued to struggle this year versus LHBs. Jimenez possesses a 4.93 xFIP versus LHBs and is giving up a HR/9 of 1.67. Reason #2: Jackie Bradley Jr. is feeling it right now at the plate, hitting the ball hard 40% of the time in at-bats that end in contact. His 24% k rate over that same period is not bad for Bradley Jr. and his 0.286 ISO over the last week highlights the high-risk/high-reward nature of playing Jackie Bradley Jr in DFS. Reason #3: The game is taking place at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, a park that David Ortiz has exposed as a lefty-friendly park in recent days. According to the RotoGrinders Ballpark Factors tool, Oriole Park at Camden Yards has a ridiculously advantageous 1.31 rating for LHB home run power. The stars appear to be aligning for Bradley tonight, so do not be surprised when he pokes one out tonight.
As reported by: FanGraphs and RotoGrinders Ballpark Factors Other tagged players: Ubaldo Jimenez Bartolo Colon is surrendering a 37.3% Hard% and 40.5% FB% to LHB this season
Bartolo Colon somehow just manages to get things done when he is on the mound, making him very difficult to attack with opposing hitters. However, he is not anything special against left-handed batters (4.78 xFIP). Because of his great control (4.4% BB%), we won’t want to stack a weak-hitting team like Atlanta against him. Freddie Freeman (161 wRC+, 414 wOBA, .293 ISO vs RHP) is the only Braves hitter to really go out of our way to target as a one off, but there’s a bit of merit to Ender Inciarte or Nick Markakis (112 wRC+, .342 wOBA, .156 ISO vs RHP) as cash game fill ins on FanDuel where they are reasonably priced.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Ender Inciarte, Nick Markakis 3 Reasons to play: Jackie Bradley Jr.
Reason #1: Ubaldo Jimenez has historically struggled versus lefties and has continued to struggle this year versus LHBs. Jimenez possesses a 4.93 xFIP versus LHBs and is giving up a HR/9 of 1.67. Reason #2: Jackie Bradley Jr. is feeling it right now at the plate, hitting the ball hard 40% of the time in at-bats that end in contact. His 24% k rate over that same period is not bad for Bradley Jr. and his 0.286 ISO over the last week highlights the high-risk/high-reward nature of playing Jackie Bradley Jr in DFS. Reason #3: The game is taking place at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, a park that David Ortiz has exposed as a lefty-friendly park in recent days. According to the RotoGrinders Ballpark Factors tool, Oriole Park at Camden Yards has a ridiculously advantageous 1.31 rating for LHB home run power. The stars appear to be aligning for Bradley tonight, so do not be surprised when he pokes one out tonight.
As reported by: FanGraphs and RotoGrinders Ballpark Factors Other tagged players: Ubaldo Jimenez Scherzer has the top park-adjusted matchup with Giancarlo Stanton OUT of the Marlins lineup
Max Scherzer has been a top of the line ace all year, and it’s been no different lately. Scherzer owns a 31.4% K%, 6.1% BB%, 15.1% SwStr%, and 3.03 SIERA on the season and has basically mirrored those numbers in his last five starts. Being a fly ball pitcher (48.1%), a trip to Miami lines up well for him in a spacious ballpark. Miami is not a team to be afraid of, especially with Giancarlo Stanton absent from tonight’s lineup. They rank 29th in ISO against right-handed pitching, and they are dead last in the league in ISO over the past month. There is nothing to think about with Scherzer other than do you want to spend the money for him. Nothing is a sure thing is baseball, but this is as close as you get.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Masahiro Tanaka gets a park upgrade in a matchup with a high strikeout offense
Masahiro Tanaka has not shown very drastic splits this year, holding an xFIP of 3.33 versus LHBs and 3.78 versus RHBs. Tanaka has given up more home runs at home, owning a 1.22 HR/9 in New York, compared to a HR/9 of 0.46 in away games. He will be pitching at Tropicana Field tonight, which means he will get a stadium upgrade. Tropicana Field has a home run rating of 0.86 for RHB according to the RotoGrinders Ballpark Factors tool, a significant boost for Tanaka compared to the 1.15 rating of Yankee Stadium. The team strikeout rate of 24% owned by the Rays gives Tanaka all the upside in the world and combined with the park upgrade, makes Tanaka a more than reasonable play at pitcher tonight.
As reported by: FanGraphs and RotoGrinders Ballpark Factors Two-man stack of the night: Asdrubal Cabrera and Curtis Granderson
Through 30 innings of work, Ryan Weber has average numbers, whiffing 15% of hitters on both sides of the plate and giving up a flyball percentage of 32% against LHBs. His hard contact in at-bats ending in contact is not egregious, also sitting at 32%, but is not low enough to avoid any of the Mets LHBs. Asdrubal Cabrera and Curtis Granderson make for a viable two-man stack, each owning a wRC+ total north of 110 vs. RHP this year. In addition to performing well versus righties, both Mets righties have ISOs over 0.220 over the last week. This two-man stack is an opportunity to stack a 2-hole hitter and cleanup hitter against an average RHP with a mediocre k-rate.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Curtis Granderson, Ryan Weber 3 Reasons to play: Chris Davis
Reason #1: Clay Buchholz has been awful over the last two weeks, holding a SIERA of 7.12 over that last 14 days. Over this period, Buchholz is only striking out 12% of batters and giving up a healthy 45% hard contact rate on at-bats ending in contact. Reason #2: Buchholz has an xFIP of 6.10 this year against LHBs, which makes the left-handed swinging O’s especially interesting, beginning with Chris Davis. Davis possesses a ridiculous 0.280 ISO versus RHP this year and, although he does strike out 34% of the time versus righties, Buchholz’s inability to strike batters out should mitigate Davis’s strikeout concerns. Reason #3: The game will take place at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, a ballpark rated as a 1.31 by the RotoGrinders Ballpark Factors tool for home runs by LHBs. While it may be below average for LHB’s triples and doubles, none of us will be rostering Crush for three-baggers.
As reported by: FanGraphs and RotoGrinders Ballpark Factors Other tagged players: Clay Buchholz A trio of Indians look to take advantage of an Ian Kennedy matchup away from Kauffman Stadium
Ian Kennedy has been better at home this year, owning a slightly higher xFIP and a higherHR/9 in away games. While his 1.83 HR/9 is not astronomically higher than his 1.21 HR/9 allowed at home, his susceptibility to LHBs is significantly lessened by Kauffman Stadium, which has a home run rating on the RotoGrinders (RG) Ballpark Factors tool of 0.79 for RHB home run power and 0.91 for LHB home run power. Progressive Field certainly is not below average for HR power, standing at league average for home run power on both sides of the plate according to the RG Ballpark Factors tool. The Indians lefties other than Carlos Santana let us down last night, but it is worth going back to the well tonight. Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis, and Francisco all hold wRC+ totals over 115 in at-bats versus RHP this year and could make for a solid three-man stack tonight in Cleveland.
As reported by: FanGraphs and MLB Press Other tagged players: Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor, Ian Kennedy