DFS Alerts
3 Reasons to play: Chris Sale
Reason #1: Psychology plays a big part of daily fantasy sports, and a few of the Phillies have been actually swinging the bat well lately. Over the last week, Odubel Herrera, Tommy Joseph, and Freddy Galvis each have wRC+ totals greater than 125. Luckily for Chris Sale, two of these batters, Herrera and Galvis have wRC+ totals versus LHP of 72 and 36, respectively. Reason #2: The Phillies have a team wRC+ total of 73 in at-bats versus LHP this year with a team strikeout rate of 23%. The team ISO versus southpaws is fairly punchless, sitting at a measly 0.111. Reason #3: According to the RotoGrinders Starting Lineups page, Las Vegas has projected the Phillies to score 3.10 runs tonight. This projected total is good for the second lowest projection of the night, only higher than the Marlins total who will face Max Scherzer tonight.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Odubel Herrera, Freddy Galvis
Power meets power as the Blue Jays take on King Felix at Safeco
The Blue Jays erupted offensively last night and will look to keep things rolling this afternoon in a presumed tough matchup opposite Felix Hernandez. However, Felix has struggles throughout the 2016 season, so don’t be scared off so quickly. Toronto owns a .327 team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season and Hernandez has posted an uncharacteristic 4.58 ERA since the All-Star break. Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Devon Travis and Josh Donaldson are all lineup up at the top of the order and each owns a .350+ wOBA against right-handed pitching this season.
Other tagged players: Josh Donaldson, Devon Travis, Edwin Encarnacion
Mariners look to prolong Aaron Sanchez' recent struggles.
Aaron Sanchez looks to be running of gas as the season winds down, and that’s good news for this Seattle lineup. Sanchez has been roughed up in each of his last four starts and the Mariners own an impressive .329 team wOBA at Safeco Field this season. With left-handed batters having far more success off of Sanchez this season, both Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager are locked in as top tier plays at their respective positions, with the likes of Adam Lind, Seth Smith and Norichika Aoki all fine secondary targets.
Other tagged players: Kyle Seager, Adam Lind, Norichika Aoki Houston in a fine spot this afternoon against Daniel Mengden
Coors Field aside, the Houston Astros look like the next best option this afternoon. In a favorable matchup against the inexperienced Daniel Mengden, they have a solid 4.65 projected run total today. Megden will take the mound with an unsightly 5.68 ERA through 12 starts this season and been equally punished by both left and right-handed batters. The ballpark shift is not ideal, but the top six of this batting order are all fine options at their respective positions.
Other tagged players: Carlos Correa, George Springer, Evan Gattis In their fourth meeting this season, Oakland looks to finally solve Collin McHugh
Collin McHugh is fresh off one of his best starts of the season, but he does own a troubling 4.91 ERA since the All-Star break and has limped his way to a 5.53 ERA on the road this season. With that said, he’s pitched quiet well in three prior meetings against this Oakland team and the Athletics own a subpar .304 team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Still, with just three games to work with on this afternoon slate, you’ll certainly need to give Oakland a long look. The usual suspects of Stephen Vogt and Danny Valencia look like fine options, but it’s been Marcus Semien that has given McHugh the most trouble in the past as he’s gone 7 for 15 with three doubles and a home run in their previous meetings. Meanwhile, Ryan Healy quietly leads this team with a .361 wOBA against right-handed pitching and likely won’t draw much attention. Khris Davis remains out.
Other tagged players: Marcus Semien, Khris Davis Likely heavy industry-wide exposure to this Coors Field game on a three game afternoon slate
As expected, the Battle between the Cardinals and Rockies at Coors Field is easily projected to be the highest scoring game this afternoon. With that in mind, and two inexperienced pitchers on the mound, this game figures to draw heavy ownership in all formats. St. Louis exploded for ten runs in last night’s game and should be very hungry for another “W” as they’re in a dogfight for one of the Wild Card spots in the National League. With that in mind, it doesn’t look like you can go wrong with anyone in Mike Matheny’s lineup against the hard-throwing German Marquez. On the Colorado side of things, Nolan Arenado remains a top-tier option at the hot corner on a nightly basis, but it’s been left-handed batters doing most of the damage against Luke Weaver during his breif stay in the Big Leagues (.389 wOBA against). This pushes Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon and David Dahl towards the top of the outfield rankings
Other tagged players: Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, Matt Carpenter Khris Davis scratched, Valencia replaces
Khris Davis seems to have fallen ill. He’s been scratched and Valencia will replace him. This is an upgrade for Musgrove as Davis was, by far, the top power bat in that lineup in a park that suppresses power significantly.
As reported by: Susan Slusser Other tagged players: Danny Valencia
Sean Manaea possesses much lower strikeout upside against RHB (19.6% K%)
Sean Manaea is making his second start after missing a couple weeks with a back injury. He was excellent in five innings in his last start, and while he has some upside, the Athletics have no reason to push their young, promising starter at this point of the season, so it would be advisable to avoid rostering Manaea until he is fully stretched out again. Six innings would seem to be his ceiling tonight, which isn’t enough to outweigh the risk of facing a powerful Astros lineup. The best Houston bats to target would be George Springer (156 wRC+, .400 wOBA, .288 ISO vs LHP), Jose Altuve (149 wRC+, .390 wOBA, .199 ISO vs LHP), and Evan Gattis (138 wRC+, .374 wOBA, .267 ISO vs LHP), though neither side of this matchup is especially intriguing.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Jose Altuve, Evan Gattis, Sean Manaea
Rich Hill has pitched 24.1 innings with just four runs and 28 Ks as a Dodger
Rich Hill allowed just his third HR of the season last time out in Arizona. That’s something we should expect to significantly regress. However, he’s been excellent for the Dodgers since the trade (24.1 IP – 10 H – 4 ER – 1 HR – 3 BB – 28 K – 86 BF) and with 93 pitches last time out, we have fewer concerns about a pitch count as the Dodgers try to get him ready for a post-season run in a couple of weeks and put away the Giants. San Francisco strikes out just 18.3% against LHP, but with below average power (10.4 HR/FB). This a decent spot for a pitcher who has been great this year. He may be the number two pitcher on the board after Fernandez. The Giants have added some RHBs, but not necessarily good ones and RHBs have just a .236 wOBA against Hill since last season. Projected for just 3.2 runs, there’s no interest in the offense here.
Paul Clemens owns a pitiful 2.67 HR/9 and 2.8% K-BB% versus RHB
The Diamondbacks are not an imposing team outside of Jake Lamb against right-handed pitching, but the numbers of Paul Clemens are just so horrific, with just an 11.3% strikeout rate to right-handed batters, that we’re willing to consider almost anyone with a pulse here. This matchup falls pretty far down the spectrum tonight with all the other great offense-indusive environments, but Jake Lamb (130 wRC+, .375 wOBA, .289 ISO vs RHP), Paul Goldschmidt (118 wRC+, .358 wOBA, .169 ISO vs RHP), Jean Segura (131 wRC+, .378 wOBA, .171 ISO vs RHP) and Brandon Drury (.173 ISO vs RHP) make for an intriguing low owned stack against a very beatable pitcher despite the ballpark downgrade.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Jake Lamb, Jean Segura, Brandon Drury Johnny Cueto has gone at least seven innings in three of last four, 10.1 SwStr% over last month
Johnny Cueto turned in a complete game against the Cardinals, striking out seven and has gone at least seven innings in three of his last four. The Giants are looking for him to be a horse for them down the stretch as they aim for a Wild Card spot. He’s allowed two runs or fewer in five of his last six starts, maintaining a strikeout rate a bit above average over the last month with the SwStr% touching double digits. The Dodger are a powerful offense (15.5 HR/FB vs RHP), but they do have a 24.5 K% with a 3.4 HR/FB over the last week. Cueto is not the top arm on the slate, nor the top value for $12K on DraftKings, but he is usable for $9.6K on FanDuel. After a bullpen blowup last night. The Giants will likely ride him as long as they can in this game. There’s little interest in Dodger bats against a tough pitcher, but Andrew Toles (160 wRC+, .216 ISO vs RHP) might be an interesting minimum priced punt on either site.
Other tagged players: Andrew Toles Concern in San Diego in Kevin's evening weather forecast
There are strange things going on in San Diego (vs Arizona) tonight. It’s rare that Petco is the focus of offensive attention with both offenses projected for more than four runs, but it’s even rarer that we have to deal with a significant weather concern, but that appears to be the case here as Kevin currently projects it as ORANGE/YELLOW. The good news is that fading pitchers is not likely to be an issue here and there are several other places to pivot for offensive needs. The only other game where Kevin sees a chance of a delay is in Detroit Minnesota. Be sure to read Kevin's full report on our Weather Page and be sure to follow him on Twitter (KevinRothWx) for important updates.
Matt Carpenter OUT, but Cards still stack lefties up top at Coors against de la Rosa
Daily fantasy players are likely to have a lot of lineup adjusting to do now. Not only is Matt Carpenter out, but Mike Matheny is still insistent on stacking lefties up top against Jorge de la Rosa. Batters from either side may have a wOBA just above .360 against him this season, but historically RHBs have a wOBA 50 points higher and a 35.2 Hard% some five plus points higher against him this year. While this is still a very stackable offense that players will want to find a way to pay up for some exposure too, it’s a bit less attractive than we’d hoped. Perhaps that will work in favor or lower ownership rates on top of the order bats here. Stephen Piscotty (157 wRC+, .245 ISO vs LHP since 2015) is still the “must have” in this lineup. Yadier Molina (111 wRC+ vs LHP this season) is probably the top Catcher on the slate. Randal Grichuk (102 wRC+, .243 ISO vs LHP this season) is the only other above average bat against LHP). Jedd Gyrko (91 wRC+, .141 ISO vs LHP this season) still has significant value in the two hole for less than $4K on either site.
Other tagged players: Yadier Molina, Jedd Gyorko, Randal Grichuk, Jorge De La Rosa Nolan Arenado (131 wRC+, .306 ISO vs RHP since 2015) may be top Third Base bat at home vs Wainwright (LHBs .334 wOBA)
Adam Wainwright has had a very up and down season that pits him as a very average pitcher overall this year. He’s not normally someone we look to attack, but certainly isn’t a pitcher worth considering in Colrado tonight. LHBs have a bit of a leg up on him since last season (.334 wOBA), though he has kept hard contact either way to around league average. As usual against RHP, several Colorado bats project well tonight, but cost quite a bit. Nolan Arenado (131 wRC+, .306 ISO vs RHP since 2015) may be the top Third Base bat tonight and costs a reasonable $3.8K on FanDuel. The top five in the order are all above average hitters against RHP with only LeMahieu (.134 ISO) below a .200 ISO against them this season. This is a reasonable lineup to target for a decent amount of exposure if affordable, though others may still be more cost effective in spots.
Other tagged players: DJ LeMahieu, Adam Wainwright Joe Musgrove (16.3 K-BB%) has had hard contact issues (35%), but gets a major park upgrade in Oakland tonight
Joe Musgrove has a 4.71 ERA, but also a 16.3 K-BB% and has allowed more than three runs in just three of his nine outings. The long ball has been a bit of a problem (17.3 HR/FB) with a 35% hard hit rate supporting it, but he’s in an interesting spot in Oakland tonight. They don’t strike out a lot (18.8% vs RHP), but don’t walk a lot or hit for a low of power in a difficult park either (9.0 HR/FB on the road). An impressive minor league track record suggests that Musgrove has the skill set to be a quality major league pitcher and overcome his early hard contact issues. This is a park that suppresses power, perhaps allowing him to gain back whatever he loses in strikeouts tonight. There’s still some upside here for a cost around $7K or less. The A’s are currently projected to score less than four runs and while LHBs have a .367 wOBA and 37.5 Hard% against Musgrove, there’s really not an above average on in the Oakland lineup tonight. Joey Wendle (91 wRC+ vs RHP) may still have some value for just $2.6K on either site out of the leadoff spot.
Other tagged players: Joey Wendle