DFS Alerts
Stack or fade Indians hitters in tournaments on the road versus Miguel Gonzalez
Miguel Gonzalez (4.56 SIERA) is another pitcher who should not be suppressing opponent production as well as he has been able to thus far (3.81 ERA), and yet, he still manages to consistently limit damage. On a smaller slate, we might try to target a home run from a power left-handed batters on the Indians, but on a full slate, this is a clear stack or fade situation. We could utilize a stack and capture all the goodness that comes our way if the Indians happen to go off, but outside of a stack, we will have a difficult time predicting which hitters will really come through in this spot, assuming any of them do. Carlos Santana (132 wRC+, .371 wOBA, .275 ISO vs RHP) and Jason Kipnis (120 wRC+, .355 wOBA, .204 wOBA vs RHP) are the two sure-fire options to include in any Indians stacks this evening.
Other tagged players: Jason Kipnis, Miguel Gonzalez
Tyler Anderson has a 15.2 K-BB%, 52.0 GB% and 4.6 Hard-Soft% and few pitchers can call Arizona an upgrade
Tyler Anderson has a 15.2 K-BB%, 52.0 GB% and 4.6 Hard-Soft%, which doesn’t fluctuate much depending on the environment. While he’s in a difficult spot against an offense that slaughters LHP (20.2 HR/FB) at home (16.5 HR/FB), if he can retain these properties in Colorado, Arizona is still a significant upgrade. The Diamondbacks strike out 23% of the time vs LHP at home too and are one of the coldest offenses in baseball (55 wRC+, 28.2 K%, 26.4 Hard% last seven days). $6.5K on FanDuel seems especially low. RHBs have a reasonable .317 wOBA against him with a 29.8 Hard%, but even that’s impressive considering many of his games are pitched in Colorado. Goldschmidt (183 wRC+, .248 ISO vs LHP since 2015) and Tomas (175 wRC+, .336 ISO vs LHP this season) are probably still considerations, but there are many much worse pitchers to pick on tonight.
Other tagged players: Paul Goldschmidt, Yasmany Tomas
David Dahl misses Shelby Miller in Arizona tonight
Shelby Miller gets the Rockies on the road for the near minimum cost on DraftKings, but still faces them in one of them in one of the most difficult parks outside of Coors and upon further review, is still Shelby Miller (15.0 K%, 5.28 FIP, 5.18 SIERA this season). Batters from either side have a wOBA above .340 this season, while LHBs have a wOBA above .400 with a 39% hard hit rate. With Dahl out, Blackmon (118 wRC+, .217 ISO vs RHP since 2015), Gonzalez (133 wRC+, .273 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Arenado (129 wRC+, .308 ISO vs RHP since 2015) all look strong, but none are much above average hitters on the road and only Arenado on FanDuel ($3.5K) costs less than $4K tonight.
Other tagged players: Nolan Arenado, Charlie Blackmon, Shelby Miller Martin Perez and his 1.6% K-BB% provide an excellent matchup for Astros RHB
The Astros have a number of hitters who are just ridiculously good when they manage to make contact. Given the minuscule strikeout rate of Martin Perez to right-handed batters (10.3%), it’s safe to say contact will be made tonight. Perez does offset his strikeout struggles with a solid ground ball rate to righties (52.3%), but not to such an extent that we should be scared off of using Astros bats that profile well in this matchup. The guys who line up best against Perez are Jose Altuve (160 wRC+, 406 wOBA, .206 ISO vs LHP), Evan Gattis (142 wRC+, .380 wOBA, .284 ISO vs LHP), Alex Bregman (.191 ISO vs LHP), and Yulieski Gurriel (125 wRC+, .356 wOBA, .211 ISO vs LHP). George Springer (160 wRC+, .406 wOBA, .277 ISO vs LHP) hits so many ground balls against lefties that he is not as elite of an individual play as the other Houston hitters listed previously. However, the likelihood of the Astros scoring runs in this game bumps up his value, and he’s certainly a strong member of a tournament stack.
Other tagged players: Evan Gattis, Alex Bregman, Yulieski Gurriel, George Springer, Martin Perez Carlos Carrasco snapped a string of six straight starts with eight or more Ks, still a 31.8 K% over last month
Carlos Carrasco snapped a string of six straight starts striking out eight or more with a total of two walks last time out, but still managed to pitch into the eighth inning, striking out just five Astros while being swarmed by insects (check his Twitter last week). He’s has tonight’s top strikeout (25.6%) and swinging strike rate (12.2%) both on the season and over the last month (31.1%, 13.8%), among those with more than one start. His 35.5 Hard% is seventh highest in baseball and that may come back to bite him when he doesn’t have a K-BB above 30%, but the White Sox have below average power against RHP (29.1 Hard%, 11.0 HR/FB). The cost is starting to esclate, but Carrasco is tonight’s top pitcher with top strikeout potential. Check out our Projected Ownership page when it updates to see how popular he might be. The White Sox are projected for the second lowest run total on the board (3.5).
As reported by: Rotogrinders Projected Ownership RHBs have a .379 wOBA and eight HRs against Odorizzi on the road this season, but Donaldson OUT
Josh Donaldson is slumping (-13 wRC+ last seven days), but this seems like a strange time to sit him against Jake Odorizzi (RHBs .334 wOBA since 2015) at home and it’s not even the first time its happened this season. Donaldson has some strong numbers against Odorizzi too, but let’s concentrate on the hitters who are here. A Toronto stack is a sneaky play here as he is generally regarded as a decent pitcher, but has allowed eight of 25 to RHBs on the road with a .379 wOBA against him in that spot this season. Encarnacion (148 wRC+, .289 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has a 193 wRC+ and 54.6 Hard% over the last week and may be a top overall bat in this spot, while Jose Bautista (137 wRC+, .264 ISO vs RHP since 2015) costs less than $4K on DraftKings. Devon Travis (124 wRC+, .178 ISO vs RHP career) and Troy Tulowitzki (98 wRC+, .180 ISO vs RHP since 2015) are affordable middle infield options, both with 150 or better wRC+ over the last week.
Other tagged players: Jose Bautista, Devon Travis, Troy Tulowitzki Brewers offense finds themselves in a better spot than the 4.3 run team total would indicate
A bullpen game for the Reds is something that could be extremely intriguing from a daily fantasy perspective. Keyvius Sampson will draw the start, and he has surrendered a 34.4% hard contact rate and owns a high 4.71 SIERA out of the bullpen this season. The Reds bullpen as a whole ranks 28th in the majors with a 4.96 ERA this season, and this is definitely a unit we can exploit with opposing hitters. The Brewers are not a great offense by any sense, but they are extremely reasonably priced around the industry tonight, especially on DraftKings. It was surprising to see Jonathan Villar (110 wRC+, .343 wOBA vs RHP), Ryan Braun (125 wRC+, .366 wOBA, .244 ISO vs RHP), and Chris Carter (.244 ISO vs RHP) priced so low in this spot. This is one of those rare times that we can feel pretty comfortable about stacking up this Brewers squad in tournaments.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Other tagged players: Jonathan Villar, Chris Carter, Keyvius Sampson Francisco Liriano has a 23.6 K% since the trade, faces the Rays tonight (25.3 K% vs LHP)
Francisco Liriano hasn’t started a game since August 26th, pitching two innings out of the bullpen since, but has improved both his walk (9.1%) and strikeout rate (23.6%) since the trade, while his ERA and estimators have dropped closer to four. He’s still allowing hard contact at around a 35% clip. It’s not all perfect, but it appears a bit better. The Rays aren’t a bad offense in this spot (14.8 HR/FB on the road, 102 wRC+ vs LHP), but strike out 25.3% of the time vs LHP. There’s obviously some risk of a blowup here, but that’s inherent in a a price tag around $8K or less with potentially the top strikeout potential on the board. Liriano is a high risk, high reward GPP play tonight and may have the top point per dollar potential on the board for $7.2K on FanDuel. The Rays are projected for fewer than four runs tonight. RHBs have just a .355 wOBA with 19 HRs against Liriano this season, so we’re still interested in looking at Forsythe (154 wRC+, .274 ISO vs LHP since 2015) and Longoria (135 wRC+, .217 ISO vs LHP since 2015). The latter costs just $3.6K on DraftKings, but has a -18 wRC+ and 18.2 Hard% over the last week.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Logan Forsythe, Evan Longoria Dodgers bring a 108 wRC+ and 16.1 HR/FB against RHP to Yankee Stadium tonight
Bryan Mitchell was not impressive in his first major league start of the season, which lasted just 80 pitches. He may not have allowed a run, but had a 0.0 K-BB% and 40.0 Hard-Soft%. There are really only a couple of bad spots tonight and the LH power of the Dodgers (108 wRC+, 16.1 HR/FB vs RHP) in Yankee Stadium is one of them. We are looking at not a single Dodger bat below a 100 wRC+ vs RHP this season and five of them above a .220 ISO (Seager, Pederson, Turner, Grandal). Corey Seager (165 wRC+, .235 ISO vs RHP career) might be one of the top overall bats tonight, never mind just SS. Joc Pederson (134 wRC+, .242 ISO vs RHP since 2015) may be the top bargain for just $2.9K on FanDuel, despite batting eighth. Both have a hard hit rate above 50% over the last week (Pederson 348 wRC+). Though Mitchell has a 52.8 GB% in 45.2 career major league innings and facing an offense for the first time can have even more unpredictable results, most of that is in relief and players should find a way to get at least some exposure to powerful Dodger bats in this park. The biggest concern would actually be the Yankees turning to the bullpen early here with expanded rosters.
Other tagged players: Joc Pederson, Justin Turner, Yasmani Grandal Mat Latos and his 3.6% K-BB% set to make Nationals debut
Mat Latos will be making his first start as a member of the Nationals, after being released by the White Sox. The White Sox obviously cut him for a reason, with that reason being mostly derived from the fact that Latos simply isn’t very good anymore. He has a 12.7% strikeout rate this season to go along with a 5.46 SIERA. The Mets are playing some of their best baseball of the season right now as they attempt to lock down one of the available Wild Card spots in the National League. The return of Yoenis Cespedes (136 wRC+, .369 wOBA, .269 ISO vs RHP) has helped their offense in a big way, and the Mets may go over-looked tonight with a plethora of other teams in good spots. Curtis Granderson (.241 ISO vs RHP) and Kelly Johnson (121 wRC+, .348 wOBA, .203 ISO vs RHP) are the other two Mets bats to seriously consider as one offs in tournaments.
Other tagged players: Curtis Granderson, Kelly Johnson Carlos Gomez jumps to leadoff spot against Fister, whom LHBs have a .384 wOBA and 36.5 Hard% against
Doug Fister has just a 6.9 K-BB% with a 5.8 SwStr% closing in on the lowest mark in the majors. He’s walked five with just three strikeouts, allowing 18 runs over 12.1 innings in his last three starts. LHBs have crushed him for a .384 wOBA with 16 HRs and 36.5 Hard% and while he’s not really striking out RHBs, he’s kept them on the ground 53.9% of the time with a 23.4 Hard%, so it makes perfect sense Carlos Gomez is leading off with Nomar Mazara (109 wRC+, .183 ISO vs RHP) dropped down to eighth, right? We’re all probably face palming right now. The remaining three LHBs in tonight’s lineup all have a wRC+ between 110 and 120 with an ISO a bit above .200 against RHP since last season with Mitch Moreland potentially being the best value of the bunch at $3.6K on DraftKings. Rougned Odor has homered twice against Fister in 14 PAs though.
Other tagged players: Doug Fister, Nomar Mazara, Mitch Moreland Jose De Leon struck out nine Padres in major league debut, but threw just 86 pitches
Jose De Leon struck out nine of 24 Padres in his major league debut and has had a strikeout rate above 32% at every level he has pitched at since 2013 in Rookie ball. That’s an amazing profile, but he’s in a bit of a tougher spot tonight even though the Yankees are far from an offensive juggernaut this season. The biggest concern tonight is that he was allowed to throw just 86 pitches in his debut and while 90 could get him through six here, that may be a best case scenario, in which he could conceivably cover a price tag right around $7.5K on either site. He does have exceptional upside though, so it’s difficult to suggest players avoid him. De Leon will allow the occasional HR and even did so in his debut. RHBs have actually hit 13 of those 20 HRs since his promotion to AA last season, so perhaps Gary Sanchez (228 wRC+, .400 ISO vs RHP career) is still in play?
Other tagged players: Gary Sanchez Ross Detwiler has a 5.30 xFIP and 5.5% K-BB% versus RHB
Ross Detwiler owns a 5.15 ERA on the season that is accompanied with a 4.97 SIERA and 29.8% hard hit rate allowed. His splits aren’t massive like a lot of other left-handed pitchers, but he does still fare worse against right-handed batters as we would expect. We should be able to get a lot of the Kansas City bats fairly low-owned tonight, as they are never an exciting offense to stack, and there are so many other options out there on this slate. If looking for a sneaky tournament stack, the Royals are the team to target. Whit Merrifield (130 wRC+, .370 wOBA vs LHP), Paulo Orlando (.156 ISO vs LHP), Salvador Perez (.233 ISO vs LHP), Cheslor Cuthbert (128 wRC+, .368 wOBA, .160 ISO vs LHP), and Kendrys Morales (125 wRC+, .362 wOBA, .214 ISO vs LHP) are the options to consider here.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Page Other tagged players: Whit Merrifield, Paulo Orlando, Salvador Perez, Cheslor Cuthbert, Ross Detwiler Oakland bats are extremely cheap against RHP with a .375 wOBA allowed to LHBs since 2015
Dillon Gee (11.2 K-BB%) works fine as a fifth starter in a big park with a great defense behind him and is even in a nice run prevention spot tonight but a lowered strikeout one against the A’s at home, while he’s up to almost $6K on DraftKings. LHBs have a .375 wOBA and 32.2 Hard% against him since last season and the entire Oakland lineup is very cheap across both sites. While Kansas City dims power potential, it’s not an unfavorable run environment overall. Players could consider investing in some Oakland bats here without a single one priced above $3.5K on either site. Perhaps the best option is Yonder Alonso (101 wRC+ vs RHP), who is a league average bat with no power, but costs around $2.5K on either site and also new leadoff man Joey Wendle for about the same cost. Stephen Vogt (112 wRC+, .180 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is having a down year and -3 wRC+ with a 17.7 Hard% over the last week, but costs less than $3K batting third tonight. Danny Valencia (119 wRC+, .202 ISO vs RHP since 2015) has the highest cost on DraftKings, but his RHP decently and should be in the middle of any offense this lineup is able to generate.
Other tagged players: Danny Valencia, Yonder Alonso, Joey Wendle, Dillon Gee Cole returns from disabled list to face an unimposing Phillies squad
Given the overall state of the pitching options tonight, Gerrit Cole would normally be massively owned in this situation. The majority of daily fantasy players generally overrate his skill set, even though Cole has a meager 19.3% strikeout rate and 4.16 SIERA this season. However, he should not approach those ownership levels on this particular slate. Cole is making his first start since coming off the disabled list, and he did not make a single rehab start before returning from this injury. He only threw a couple of bullpen sessions. so we shouldn’t expect him to go deep into this game and should avoid rostering him for the most part. With that said, Cole is a relatively safe pick in a favorable matchup against the Phillies, so he is in play if finding it necessary to go that direction.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Page