DFS Alerts
Frazier (123 wRC+, .190 ISO vs RHP) & Bell (155 wRC+, .185 vs RHP) potential low cost value out of top two spots tonight
Jeremy Hellickson struck out just a single batter in his last start and has allowed 13 runs over his last 16 innings (three HRs), striking out 11 of 74 batters, walking six. He’s not the worst choice on the board for $7K against an offense with a 10.5 K-BB% vs RHP, but that offense gets a major park bump tonight and his risk/reward benefit appears to be diminishing the later we get into the season. LHBs have a .342 wOBA against him since last season, though his 24 HRs have been fairly evenly spit this year, which makes the scorching hot Jung-Ho Kang (138 wRC+, .219 ISO vs RHP career) an interesting option, even at a slightly higher price with a .341 wRC+ over the last week. Josh Bell (155 wRC+, .185 ISO vs RHP) and Adam Frazier (123 wRC+, .190 ISO vs RHP) are the exceptional value plays tonight though, for less than $3.5K on either site.
Other tagged players: Josh Bell, Jung-Ho Kang, Jeremy Hellickson
Peralta owns just a 4.6% K-BB% to LHB
Nearly every time Wily Peralta (4.68 SIERA) takes the mound, he will be a pitcher that we want to attack in daily fantasy which naturally makes the Reds a great stacking option tonight. Peralta has actually been better recently, but this is still a great spot for Joey Votto (162 wRC+, .417 wOBA, .243 ISO vs RHP) and Scott Schebler (.169 ISO vs RHP), as they should be able to crank out some hard-hit line drives in this matchup. Adam Duvall (.272 ISO vs RHP)has the fly ball tendencies to counteract the ground ball abilities of Peralta to right-handed batters (53.6% GB%), and will hopefully be able to mash at least one out of Great American Ballpark. The Reds may fly under the radar and have a decent team total, so feel free to fire up Cincinnati stacks in tournaments.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Scott Schebler, Adam Duvall, Wily Peralta
Hanley Ramirez has a 178 wRC+ and .310 ISO vs LHP this season
It’s very difficult to maintain an 8.22 ERA with a 23.4 K%, yet that’s exactly what Wade Miley has done over the last month. Obviously, he’s not that bad, but this is certainly not the pitcher players should want to roster in possibly the only truly awful spot on the board tonight, facing the Red Sox (122 wRC+ at home, 111 wRC+ vs LHP, 122 wRC+ last seven days) at Fenway. While Miley has only allowed hard contact at a 32.4% rate this season and LHBs have actually hit him harder (36.8 Hard%) this season, 21 of his 24 HRs have been surrendered to RHBs as he has a decreased GB% against him. There are seven RHBs in tonight’s lineup for the Red Sox, a lineup projected to score a slate high 5.6 runs. No other offense comes within half a run. Looking at the top bats against LHP this season for the Red Sox, we come across a few bargains and while the first half of the lineup are all fairly good against southpaws, it’s Ramirez, Young, and Leon who all have a wRC+ above 175 and ISO above .250. Ramirez and Young have ISO’s above .300 even with a wRC+ above 190 over the last week. All three are great plays tonight, though Hanley’s price is elevated by more than $2K from FanDuel to DraftKings.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Wade Miley, Sandy Leon Rafael Montero has a -1.9 K-BB% in 11.2 major league innings with a 10.4 BB% at AAA
Rafael Montero has a -1.9 K-BB% in his first 11.2 major league innings this season with control issues in the minors as well (10.4 BB% at AAA) that caused him to be demoted to AA. He’s here based on necessity with an ailing rotation, not merit. The big three for the Nationals (yes, THREE….Turner has earned it) are all great plays tonight with Turner (136 wRC+, .230 ISO vs RHP since 2015) standing a great chance of swiping a base or more if D’arnaud is catching. Daniel Murphy (141 wRC+, .226 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is likely the top bargain on FanDuel for $3.7K. LHBs have faced Montero 137 times in his short career thus far with a .413 wOBA due to a 0.7 K-BB%. The Nationals are just one of three offenses projected for more than five runs tonight.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Trea Turner, Rafael Montero Justin Bour (131 wRC+, .258 ISO vs RHP) cost just $2.2K on FD against Foltynewicz
Mike Foltynewicz has increased his strikeout rate over the last month (22.7 K%) and has pitched really well in two of his last three starts. He’s in a nice spot at home against the Marlins (9.8 HR/FB vs RHP), but they have gotten some of their power back over the last week and $9.6K on DraftKings is more than a bit aggressive at this point. While this seems like a spot players should just mostly avoid, there are a couple of interesting LHBs at low cost on FanDuel. LHBs have a .362 wOBA (31.7 Hard%) against Foltynewicz since last season. Christian Yelich (137 wRC+, .177 ISO vs RHP since last season) cost $2.9K on FanDuel, but the real bargain is probably Justin Bour (131 wRC+, .258 ISO vs RHP since 2015) for just $2.2K. It’s such a shame Mattingly can’t construct a lineup with his top power threat batting no higher than sixth here.
Other tagged players: Christian Yelich, Mike Foltynewicz Freddie Freeman (153 wRC+, .261 ISO vs RHP) facing righty who gets torched by LHBs (.374 wOBA, 38.1 Hard%)
Andrew Cashner struck out nine of 22 Phillies last time out, though he still only pitched 5.1 innings with an 8.8 SwStr%. He had walked more batters than he’d struck out in his previous four starts and still has a 15.6 BB% over his last five. One short start against the Phillies doesn’t move the needle nearly enough with a price tag above $6K considering how bad he’s been since the trade. Additionally, the Braves have a 103 wRC+ that’s sixth best in baseball since the All-Star break with just an 18.6 K%. Cashner is still incredibly vulnerable to LHBs (.374 wOBA, 38.1 Hard%) and though Atlanta doesn’t play well for power, there are several LH Atlanta batters with price tags low enough on FanDuel to take advantage of, starting with Freddie Freeman (153 wRC+, .261 ISO vs RHP since 2015) for just $3.3K. Players should also consider saving a few dollars with Nick Markakis (114 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) for only $2.6K and though much lower in the lineup, Jace Peterson (95 wRC+ vs RHP since 2015) costs just $2.3K at Second Base. Although only one LHB provides any sort of power, low price tags can provide value against a pitcher who generally gets torched by LHBs.
Other tagged players: Andrew Cashner, Jace Peterson, Nick Markakis David Price is combining strikeouts (25.8%) with run prevention (2.14 ERA) over the last month
David Price is pitching some his best baseball of the season, finally combining a high strikeout rate (25.8%) with run prevention (2.14 ERA) over the last month. His estimators are more than a run higher because he’s stranding an 86.8% of his runners, but also because he’s generating many more fly balls than usual (0.83 GB/FB). While that seems like a concern against an offense with a lot of power, the Orioles have just an 81 wRC+ (fifth worst in baseball) and a below average 11.1 HR/FB vs LHP. Despite the difficult run environment in Boston, Price is one of tonight’s top three pitching options both overall and in terms of potential value. He has an extensive history against this lineup, facing just Schoop and Stubbs fewer than 28 times with no more than two HRs allowed to any batter. Matt Wieters may have the most interesting history against him, striking out 20 times in 55 PAs, but with a lineup leading seven extra-base hits. There’s no interest in a Baltimore lineup projected for less than four runs.
As reported by: Rotogrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Matt Wieters Targeting pitchers who are giving up hard contact: Edwin Jackson has a hard contact % north of 40% over the last two weeks
Edwin Jackson is allowing a hard contact percentage over 40% over the last two weeks but has kept his xFIP below 4.00 via the strikeout. Against RHP this year, Nolan Arenado and DJ LeMahieu both have strikeout rates below 13% with wRC+ totals above 120. Look to this pair of Rockies for upside against a pitcher prone to the blowup, especially Arenado. Arenado against RHP this year boasts a 0.299 ISO. Without the benefit of the strikeout, look for Nolan to take advantage of the hard contact Edwin Jackson has been allowing on at-bats that end in contact.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: DJ LeMahieu, Edwin Jackson
If you stack the M's, do NOT forget about Nelson Cruz
Raul Alcantara has only logged a couple of innings for the A’s this year but has shown in the minors that he probably will not dominate RHBs. In the minors this year, Alcantara allowed an OPS of 0.758 to RHBs, meaning a Mariners’s RHBs like Nelson Cruz is very much in play as part of a Mariners stack. The usual LHB M’s are in play like Kyle Seager (160 wRC+ versus RHP) and Robinson Cano (155 wRC+ versus RHP), but do not forget Nelson Cruz. Cruz has performed well against RHP as well, holding a 133 wRC+ versus righties with an ISO of 0.228. Look to stack the Mariners, beginning with big Nelly.
As reported by: Baseball Reference and FanGraphs Other tagged players: Kyle Seager, Robinson Cano The Angels big three look to welcome Colby Lewis back from the DL
Pitchers returning from the disabled list are unknown entities. It is impossible to determine if they are returning from the DL too soon like Jordan Zimmerman or coming back fully healthy with a livelier fastball like Derek Holland. Since Colby Lewis has been succeeding in recent years on guile and wit, it may not be a bad strategy to stack Angels today, and hope that maybe Lewis has just enough rust to accommodate a complete implosion. Lewis has a 50% flyball percentage on the year versus RHB, making RHBs equally as enticing as Angels LHBs. The big three, Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, and Cole Calhoun are all hitting the ball hard over the last 7 days, possessing hard hit percentages of 46%, 39%, and 38%, respectively. Stack these three Angels and wait for the fireworks.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Albert Pujols, Mike Trout Carlos Santana has been elevating hard contact in recent games
Jose Berrios versus the Indians is an interesting matchup today based on Berrios’s recent outings. Over the last two weeks, Berrios is giving up significant contact, holding a hard hit % of 44%. That is the bad news, but the good news is that many of these hitters have been killing worms. Berrios has kept the majority of the balls put in play on the ground, holding an elite 56% groundball rate over the last fourteen days. This groundball dominance still may not scare us off of Carlos Santana, considering the Indians switch hitter has a flyball percentage of 58% over the last week. If Santana can get the ball in the air today, it may go a very long way.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Jose Berrios Jose Abreu squares off against an up-and-down RHP
Ian Kennedy is not putting batters away in recent starts, only striking out 13% of hitters over the last couple of weeks. Kennedy has been performed similarly versus LHBs and RHBs, holding an xFIP over 4.20 versus both sides of the plate. Jose Abreu not only has the White Sox’s leading wRC+ at 120 versus RHP but is also the Sox hottest hitter over the last week. Over the last 7 days, Abreu is only whiffing 17% of the time, and hitting the ball hard in 48% of the remaining at-bats that have ended in contact. U.S. Cellular Field is not a RHB’s paradise, but is still a slightly above average environment for RHB home run power, sitting at a rating of 1.07 on the RotoGrinders Ballpark Factors tool.
As reported by: FanGraphs Zack Cozart scratched Sunday
Cozart is dealing with knee soreness and has been scratched from the Reds lineup this afternoon. He’ll be replaced by Ivan De Jesus, who will bat 8th and play SS.
As reported by: Mark Sheldon
High floor play of the day: Joey Votto
Ryan Vogelsong is on the mound for the Pirates, which could very well make Joey Votto the greatest high floor play in the history of baseball. While that may be hyperbole, consider that Vogelsong has a strikeout rate of 11% over the last two weeks while Joey Votto only strikes out 18% of the time versus RHPs. Votto’s 0.236 ISO against RHP gives him some upside as well, although the game will be at PNC Park. However, while PNC Park may be viewed as a negative ballpark for hitters ( an RG Ballpark Factors score of 0.79 for RHB home runs), it is neutral for home runs by LHBs.
As reported by: FanGraphs and RotoGrinders Ballpark Factors Other tagged players: Ryan Vogelsong Clay Buchholz has batted ball numbers in recent outings that point to trouble today in Toronto
Clay Buchholz has pitched well over the last two weeks, holding an xFIP of 3.62, but has some peripheral statistics that could get him into trouble versus a potent Jays lineup. Over that two week period, Buchholz has also allowed a 50% fly ball percentage and a 36% hard contact percentage. Eduardo Rodriguez was able to defy Las Vegas yesterday, but it may be too much to ask of Buchholz to hold down the Jays again in the Rogers Centre. Troy Tulowitzki and Edwin Encarnacion are making elite contact over the last week, striking out 5% and 15%, respectively. The entire Jays team is a viable stack but look to Tulo and Edwin as high-floor options at SS and 1B.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Edwin Encarnacion, Clay Buchholz