DFS Alerts
Urias has a -4.7% Hard-Soft% to along with a 3.01 SIERA in his last three starts
The Dodgers have been willing to let Julio Urias throw six innings per start consistently, and there isn’t any reason to think we can’t get another six innings from him tonight. After a rough first couple starts to his career, he has been as good as advertised when he’s been given the chance. Urias has managed well above a strikeout per inning, and in his last three starts his strikeout rate is up to 29.4% with an excellent 4.4% walk rate. The Yankees don’t strikeout a lot, but over the past month, with the changes in their lineup, they are a middle of the pack strikeout team. With an innings cap and a tough ballpark, it’s tough to recommend Urias as a viable cash game option, but in tournaments, he is firmly in play given his strikeout ability and upside.
As reported by: FanGraphs
Kyle Gibson keeps the ball on the ground, but some lower cost Tiger bats could present value on FanDuel
Kyle Gibson has a league average SwStr% that only transitions into a 15.8 K%, but he does generally keep the ball on the ground about half the time vs both lefties and righties. While LHBs have hit him a bit better since last season (.339 wOBA), the Tigers have two RHBs that hammer same handed pitching in Martinez (144 wRC+, .247 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Cabrera (151 wRC+, .215 ISO vs RHP since 2015), both more viable options on FanDuel for $3.7K or less. Tyler Collins (103 wRC+, .165 ISO vs RHP since 2015) and Jarrod Saltalamacchia (86 wRC+, .200 ISO vs RHP since 2015) are both punt options for $2.2K each on FanDuel as well.
Other tagged players: Miguel Cabrera, Kyle Gibson, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Tyler Collins
Rays are currently tied for the second-lowest implied run total of the slate (3.6)
Marcus Stroman has suffered from some bad luck with his BABIP allowed and HR/FB rates this season, giving him a 4.55 ERA that makes him look like a below average starting pitcher. However, his 3.47 SIERA paints a different picture, along with his impressive peripherals, with a 20.1% strikeout rate, 5.7% walk rate and 60.5% ground ball rate. Even better, his strikeouts have picked up as the season has worn on with a 26.2% K rate since the All-Star Break. There is some home run risk against this Rays lineup in a hitter’s park for Stroman, even with his high ground ball rate, but they also add to his strikeout upside, ranking 3rd in strikeouts to right-handed pitching. Stroman is the largest favorite on the slate which adds to his upside and appeal on FanDuel, where his price tag makes him a strong cash game play. Even with the higher price on DraftKings, he is still one of the top pitching options on the entire slate.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines The Orioles have a fourth worst 79 wRC+ with a below average 11.5 HR/FB vs LHP
Drew Pomeranz has begun to excel over the last month after a rough start in Boston with a 26.8% strikeout rate right on his season 26.9% rate and slightly improved estimators (3.47 SIERA). He’s allowed five HRs in four starts at Fenway since the trade, but the Orioles have shown below average power against LHP (11.5 HR/FB) despite having one of the top RH HR hitters in the league (Trumbo). They are actually the fourth worst offense overall vs LHP (79 wRC+). It’s still an incredibly tough park for LHPs, but perhaps a better spot than most players will realize. The cost is not low, but reasonable, while there are certainly pitchers we should look to attack tonight before Pomeranz. Only Manny Machado (147 wRC+, .222 ISO) has been an above average hitter against LHP this year. Mark Trumbo has a .236 ISO, but only a 60 wRC+ against them.
Other tagged players: Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo Noah Syndergaard has a reduced 16.9 K-BB%, but a 53.8 GB% and -11.1 Hard-Soft% over the last month
Noah Syndergaard is fourth in the majors with both a 29.0 K% and 23.2 K-BB% with the second best SwStr rate (14.5%). Over the last month, he’s been dominating contact again too with a 53.8 GB% and a -11.1 Hard-Soft%, though he is down to a 16.9 K-BB%. While his strikeout rate is down a bit, he still has a 13.5 SwStr% and a four walk effort in his last start occurred during an early afternoon mid-week game, a spot where he’s been known to struggle this year. It’s a fairly neutral spot in Washington tonight (98 wRC+ at home, 96 wRC+ vs RHP). They did strike out just four times against Syndergaard a couple of starts back and he is the highest priced pitcher on the board, but is also easily the top overall pitcher on the slate, even if a couple of other pitchers might represent slightly better values. The Nationals are projected for just 3.5 runs, the second lowest total on the board.
Matt Wisler has a 5.33 xFIP and 4.9% K-BB% versus LHB this season
Matt Wisler is a fly ball pitcher (41.1%) who has been especially vulnerable to left-handed power, though right-handed batters are able to get to him at times as well. Our main interest lies in Christian Yelich (146 wRC+, .390 wOBA, .214 ISO vs RHP) who isn’t exactly a renowned power hitter, but excels against fly ball pitchers in general. Justin Bour (135 wRC+, .373 wOBA, .269 ISO vs RHP) and Marcell Ozuna (.161 ISO vs RHP) are next on the list, though we shouldn’t necessarily go out of our way to target them outside of a Marlins stack in tournaments. On FanDuel, Dee Gordon remains too cheap at $2.1K and is basically a free square in cash games at that price point.
As reported by: FanGraphs Other tagged players: Justin Bour, Marcell Ozuna, Dee Strange-Gordon, Matt Wisler LHBs have a .365 wOBA vs Matt Garza since last year, but he has struck out 22 of last 75 batters
Matt Garza presents an interesting dilemma. He’s been a terrible pitcher for well over a year now. LHBs have a .365 wOBA against him, while batters from either side have hit the ball hard over one-third of the time on batted balls since last season. Considering that, Joey Votto (165 wRC+, .238 ISO vs RHP since 2015) is one of the top plays on the board at home, while Scott Schebler (105 wRC+, .184 ISO vs RHP since 2015) represents great value at just above $3K on either site. Even Adam Duvall (112 wrC+, .278 ISO vs RHP since 2015) deserves some attention for less than $4K on DraftKings and over $1K less on FanDuel. However, Garza has struck out 22 of his last 75 batters with slightly increasing velocity over his last three starts, so perhaps we should tread more carefully, although he has allowed a HR in each of his last three starts with a hard hit rate above 40% in two of the three.
Other tagged players: Matt Garza, Scott Schebler, Adam Duvall Jharel Cotton makes second major league starts, strong minor league strikeout rates
Jharel Cotton was picked up from the Dodgers in the Hill/Reddick trade. With a 20+ K-BB% at most levels of the minors in recent seasons, it’s surprising he’s had to wait until nearly 25 years old to get a shot. Minor league success has been credited to a “Bugs Bunny” changeup with below average other offerings. He allowed just two hits in his major league debut, but also walked two with just three Ks and a HR in a game where both Trout and Pujols were out of the opposing lineup. He’s in a nice spot in Kansas City (84 wRC+, 9.8 HR/FB) vs RHP at a cost right around $6K, so there could be some interest on a two pitcher site, although there’s still a lot of unknown here and it’s a deep enough board that players shouldn’t feel the need to differentiate much. Interest in Kansas City bats probably starts and ends with Kendrys Morales (122 wRC+, .228 ISO vs RHP since 2015) for $3K on FanDuel. He has a 254 wRC+ and 42.1 Hard% over the last week.
As reported by: fangraphs Andrelton Simmons scratched from Angels lineup Monday
Simmons has been scratched from the tonight due to a left-hand injury he sustained in yesterday’s ballgame. Cliff Pennington will replace him at shortstop and bat eighth.
As reported by: Jeff Fletcher Other tagged players: Cliff Pennington Eduardo Nunez scratched, replaced by Conor Gillaspie
Eduardo Nunez scratched, replaced by Conor Gillaspie, who will bat eighth. Although facing one of the worst pitchers on the board, this is a move with little daily fantasy impact so low in the batting order.
As reported by: Giants Other tagged players: Eduardo Nunez Ariel Miranda has allowed a 38.0 Hard% to batters from either side this year
Ariel Miranda hasn’t particularly gotten bombed in any one start, but has allowed at least three runs in all but two outings with just an 8.0 K-BB% and a 38% hard hit rate by batters from either side. The Angels stack up right-handed, as they normally do, with Mike Trout (171 wRC+, .243 vs LHP since 2015) the top bat, but also the most expensive, by far. Yunel Escobar (130 wRC+) and Jefry Marte (145 wRC+, .286 ISO) both stack up well against LHP since last year as well, while Pujols (116 wRC+, .252 ISO) still shows us some power. While there is some value in an Angels stack here, none of these bats are particularly cheap in a negative run environment. Escobar may provide the best value for $3K on FanDuel.
Other tagged players: Yunel Escobar, Ariel Miranda, Jefry Marte, Albert Pujols Giants implied run total has increased to 5.2 runs
Paul Clemens has actually done a solid job striking out left-handed batters (23.2% K%), but he has not had as much success against right-handed batters (11.8%), and he is surrendering a hard hit rate of over 40% to both right-handed and left-handed batters. It probably wouldn’t be beneficial to just grab a bat or two here as one offs given the fact this game is being played at the pitcher paradise, AT&T Park, but loading up Giants bats as a part of tournament stack would be the optimal way to attack Clemens and the high team total for San Francisco. Hunter Pence (119 wRC+, .345 wOBA vs RHP) and Brandon Belt (132 wRC+, .364 wOBA, .186 ISO vs RHP) would be vital parts of any Giants stack.
As reported by: RotoGrinders Vegas Odds and Lines Other tagged players: Brandon Belt, Paul Clemens Myers, Jankowski OUT against Samardzija at Petco tonight
Jeff Samardzija threw one of his best games of the season in Colorado (struck out nine of 26 with just two runs) and while his season has been a disappointment, he has gone seven innings with two runs or less in three of his last four starts with an increased strikeout rate (24.0 K% over the last month). Giving him the benefit of calling him a league average pitcher at this point, we have to recognize that he’s in the top spot on the board tonight, facing the Padres (81 wRC+, 17.5 K-BB% vs RHP) at Petco (79 wRC+, 19.0 K-BB% at home). The improvements that resulted from balancing their lineup around the trade deadline seem to have halted for the Padres. The absences of Wil Myers and Travis Jankowski tonight give Samardzija a further bump. He is playable for $10.6K on DraftKings, but a better choice for $2.5K less on FanDuel. Ryan Schimpf (144 wRC+, .356 ISO vs RHP) is the only San Diego bat of interest, still $3.5K or less on either site.
Other tagged players: Ryan Schimpf One trouble spot (Atlanta) in Kevin's evening weather forecast
Kevin has a bit of concern about the Miami Atlanta game and while he believes they'll play the game, there is a bit of risk in tonight's pitchers, though neither Cashner or Foltynewicz are expected to be very popular tonight and easy enough to pivot off of if necessary. Read Kevin's full report on our Weather Page and follow him on Twitter (KevinRothWx) for further updates.
Salvador Perez scratched Monday, Cuthbert up a spot
Perez does have a .233 ISO vs LHP, but there are reasonable pivots behind the plate, starting with Evan Gattis facing a lefty for much less on FanDuel or Sandy Leon facing Miley in Boston on DraftKings at a similar price point. For the Royals, all of the attractive bats are still at the top, but Cheslor Cuthbert (128 wRC+, .368 wOBA, .160 ISO vs LHP), mentioned earlier, bumps up a spot. Drew Butera will replace Perez and bat ninth.
As reported by: Jeffrey Flanagan Other tagged players: Cheslor Cuthbert, Evan Gattis, Sandy Leon